WWD : Authentic Brands Group Inks Deal With Shein for Forever 21

Authentic Brands Group Inks Deal With Shein for Forever 21
The expanded partnership between the two companies can ultimately result in "multiple billions" in sales, Authentic's CEO believes.

Jamie Salter may have built a $30 billion business that owns some 50 of the world’s best-known brands, but he’s still a dealmaker at heart. And the chief executive officer of Authentic Brands Group is especially pumped about the latest one, which he personally orchestrated.

Authentic has signed a long-term agreement with Shein, the global online fashion and lifestyle retailer, for its Forever 21 brand. Under the terms of the partnership, Shein will design, manufacture and distribute a line of Forever 21 apparel and accessories that will include sportswear, activewear and swimwear, among other categories. The collection, which will sport the co-branded label Forever 21 x Shein, will be sold exclusively online on Shein’s sites in the U.S. as well as part of Europe and Australia.

This deal comes shortly after the news in August that Shein had acquired an about one-third interest in SPARC Group, a joint venture between Authentic and Simon Property Group. SPARC is the core operating partner of Forever 21 in the U.S. At the same time, SPARC became a minority shareholder in Shein.

While the Forever 21 deal is seen as a potentially highly lucrative one, to Salter it indicates the beginning of something even bigger. “This one is really important,” he told WWD. “This is the start of building brands within an e-commerce platform.”

Forever 21 already operates a fleet of physical stores and has an online presence, but this deal will bring the company onto the Shein platform, which boasts some 154 million users.

“This is us going on their marketplace,” Salter said. “Look at their penetration in the U.S., Brazil, Saudi Arabia and other parts of the world. It’s incredible.”

He added that the deal will also make Forever 21 more competitive with the other global fast-fashion retailers such as H&M and Uniqlo because Shein has the technological expertise to produce trend-right merchandise at lightning speed.

Although this deal is for online, it’s actually more far-reaching because of Shein’s investment in SPARC. Salter said that last week, Shein installed a pop-up shop in the Forever 21 location in Ontario Mills in Ontario, Calif., and the results saw more than 7,000 people walking through the space during its four-day stay and comparable-store sales up 62 percent over the prior year.

“It’s a 50,000-square-foot store and we gave them 20 percent of the space,” Salter said. “We more than doubled our volume that week over the prior year, and Shein did almost as much business as we did.

“It’s clear as day that Shein is here to stay and by putting our brands together, we’re going to do a lot more business. They were hurting Forever 21 and other retailers so if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em,” he said.

Going forward, Salter said the two companies are already discussing how to further enhance the relationship.

“We’re going to open more pop-ups and we’re also working on RTS — return to store,” Salter said. “Right now, the returns go to a warehouse but Shein’s return rate is in the low double digits. They do $12 billion in the U.S., so that’s over $1 billion in returns. If you can go to a store and get credit, it could be huge.”

Salter is also envisioning how the partnership can be expanded to other Authentic brands in the future. But because Shein targets a young customer that is primarily female, it can only work with select brands within the Authentic portfolio.

“They target the younger generation and there are certain brands they gravitate to,” he said. “It can work with Aeropostale for sure, so I wouldn’t put Brooks Brothers there. But as Shein improves their supply chain for mid-tier brands with more-sophisticated manufacturing, we can go up the food chain.”

As a result, Salter estimated that down the road, the deal with Shein could potentially be worth “multiple billions” in sales. “They’re doing $40 billion in sales worldwide and if we build a good, better, best platform with them, it can be a huge traffic driver into the stores.”

He characterized the Shein product line as “good,” and Forever 21 as “better,” and sees an opportunity to one day add a brand at a higher tier for the “best” category. “We own 50 brands at Authentic and we could get into furniture or home with them in a big way. With AI and the data we have, we have a pretty good idea of what would work. But we’re starting with Forever 21 and we’ll prove that out before we add on.”

“This collaboration brings together two brands with a fantastic fanbase and a shared commitment to delivering a variety of on-trend products at a great price,” said Donald Tang, executive chairman of Shein. “This is all about giving customers the best possible shopping experience, and we’re thrilled to bring Shein’s on-demand production model — a model we think is the future of fashion — to our partners.”

Beyond this deal, Salter is continuing to search for his next acquisition. “There’s Champion and for sure, we’re looking at that,” he said. “And if VF sells its brands, we would be happy to look at some of those assets too. Right now we’re focused on entertainment, which is 25 percent of our business and we’d like it to be 50 percent. We’re interested in entertainment in the children’s space so we’re looking at different transactions there.”

>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls
  • Upgrades:
    • Adtalem Global Education (ATGE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt raised to $55
    • Bristol-Myers (BMY) upgraded to Hold from Reduce at HSBC Securities; tgt lowered to $53
    • Compania Cervecerias Unidas (CCU) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC Securities; tgt lowered to $15
    • EastGroup (EGP) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $180
    • Intel (INTC) upgraded to Hold from Reduce at HSBC Securities; tgt raised to $33
    • Merck (MRK) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $132
    • Old Dominion (ODFL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt $416
    • Origin Bancorp (OBK) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $33
    • ResMed (RMD) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $169
    • Rivian Automotive (RIVN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $29
    • Roblox (RBLX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt raised to $37
    • Varonis Systems (VRNS) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $35
    • Yelp (YELP) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan; tgt $39
  • Downgrades:
    • Bristol-Myers (BMY) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $60
    • Bristol-Myers (BMY) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair
    • Compania Cervecerias Unidas (CCU) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $11.70
    • Datadog (DDOG) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $95
    • Dow (DOW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
    • Enphase Energy (ENPH) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt lowered to $75
    • Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt lowered to $5
    • Hasbro (HAS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $53
    • Hershey Foods (HSY) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt lowered to $200
    • Hub Group (HUBG) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $84
    • PTC Therapeutics (PTCT) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $17
    • Regions Fincl (RF) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $16.50
    • Southwest Air (LUV) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at TD Cowen; tgt lowered to $20
    • The Shyft Group (SHYF) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG Research
    • Tronox (TROX) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $11
  • Others:
    • DraftKings (DKNG) placed on 30-day positive catalyst watch at Citigroup; tgt $41
    • Griffon (GFF) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank; tgt $65
    • IdaCorp (IDA) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim; tgt $104
    • Inventiva (IVA) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $12
    • Roblox (RBLX) initiated with a Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt $41
    • TKO Group Holdings (TKO) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $100

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • DXCM +17.3% (also authorizes new $500 mln share repurchase program), COUR +10.4%, DECK +10.2%, CUBI +9.7%, EVTC +9.6%, MGRC +8.6%, APPF +7.7%, INTC +7.3%, NRDS +7.2% (also authorizes new $30 mln share repurchase program), TROW +6.7%, AMZN +6.6%, TBBK +6.1%, MMSI +5.5%, MTX +5.3%, COF +5.2%, BFST +5.1%, AVTR +5%, CPT +4.6%, MITK +4.4%, FIX +4.4% (also increases dividend), ATGE +4.3%, JNPR +4.2%, SKX +4%, CMG +3.8%, AER +3.8%, SWK +3.6%, AN +2.9%, ERIE +2.6%, EGO +2.5%, EMN +2.3%, OIS +2.2%, CDP +2%, MHK +2%, TARO +2%, LPLA +1.8%, DAR +1.8%, LHX +1.5%, EQNR +1.5%, X +1.3%, EHC +1.3%, LTC +1.2%, RMD +1.1%, CL +1.1%, SAIA +1%
Other news:
  • PRME +7.8% (Presents First-ever Prime Editing Data in Non-human Primates Demonstrating Highly Efficient Ability of Prime Editors to Precisely Correct Disease-causing Mutation of GSD1b)
  • MASI +7.7% (announces USITC issues exclusion order for infringing Apple Watches finding that Apple Violated U.S. trade laws)
  • GRPN +7% (Citadel files 13G disclosing 4.3% passive stake)
  • SWI +6.6% (exploring potential sale according to Bloomberg)
  • CBOE +3.3% (increases share repurchase auth by $250 mln)
  • SCU +1.7% (Rithm Capital (RITM) enters into amended merger agreement to acquire Sculptor Capital Management For $12.70 Per Sculptor Class A Share) BCRX +1.6% (to Present New ORLADEYO (berotralstat) Data at Annual Scientific Meeting of American College of Allergy Asthma & Immunology)
  • APO +1.4% (Apo to invest up to €1.5 bln into an Air France-KLM)
  • IMGN +1.4% (announces European Medicines Agency Acceptance of Marketing Authorization Application for mirvetuximab soravtansine (ELAHERE) in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer)
  • SHO +1.3% (completes sale of Boston Park Plaza for $370 mln)
  • GLUE +1.2% (raises $25 mln at-the-market from investor)
  • WSR +1% (Fortress interested in takeover of WSR according to Bloomberg)
  • PII +0.9% (authorizes new $1 bln share repurchase program)
Analyst comments:
  • ATGE +4.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert Baird)
  • RIVN +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald)
  • ODFL +1.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)
  • RMD +1.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • PTCT -20.7%, ENPH -19.3%, SNY -17.6% (cut FY24 outlook; will split consumer and pharm businesses), NWL -12%, NWG -11% (also provides key findings from Phase 1 of Travers Smith review), BIO -7.4%, GTLS -6.6%, CRI -5.8%, SBCF -5.7%, OLN -5.5%, ELME -4.6% (also authorizes new $50 mln share repurchase program), EXPO -4.6%, AON -4.6%, HUBG -4.3% (also 2-for-1 split; initiates dividend; new $250 mln share repurchase plan), CC -4.1%, BJRI -4.1%, LYB -4%, CHTR -3.8%, F -3.3%, PEB -3.2%, COLM -3%, XEL -2.5%, AX -2.2%, ESS -2.2%, CVX -2.2%, CBRE -2.2%, TEX -2.1%, B -2.1%, LECO -2.1%, SAM -1.9%, NOV -1.5% (also to consolidate operating structure), ROG -1.2%, BAH -1.1%, FTS -1%
Other news:
  • MCBC -2% (increases dividend)
  • CSTR -1.9% (ONB to acquire CSTR)
  • ONB -1% (ONB to acquire CSTR)
Analyst comments:
  • ULCC -1.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank)
  • LUV -1.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at TD Cowen)

>>> Exxon Mobil misses by $0.43, misses on revs (107.60)

Exxon Mobil misses by $0.43, misses on revs (107.60)
  • Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.94 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.43 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $2.37; revenues fell 19.0% year/year to $90.76 bln vs the $93.41 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Upstream third-quarter earnings were $6.1 billion, an increase of $1.5 billion from the second quarter, driven by higher crude prices, lower scheduled maintenance, and favorable tax impacts. Identified items unfavorably impacted earnings by $14 million in the quarter.
  • Delivered the best-ever third-quarter global refinery throughput at 4.2 million barrels per day.
  • Compared to the same quarter last year, earnings decreased $6.3 billion. Excluding identified items, earnings declined $5.7 billion, driven by a nearly 60% decrease in natural gas realizations and a 14% decrease in crude realizations. Excluding the impacts from divestments, entitlements, and government-mandated curtailments, net production grew about 80,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day, driven by the Permian and Guyana.
  • Year-to-date earnings were $17.2 billion, a decrease of $11.1 billion versus the first nine months of 2022. The prior-year period was impacted by net negative identified items totaling $2.4 billion, including an identified item associated with the Sakhalin-1 expropriation. Excluding identified items, earnings declined $13.3 billion. Higher production from advantaged projects in Guyana and the Permian provided a partial offset to lower crude and natural gas realizations. Year-to-date production was 3.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day. The portfolio mix continued to improve with liquid production growth from Guyana and the Permian, offsetting lower natural gas production from divestments.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • DXCM +17.2%, COUR +16.3%, SWI +11.5%, CUBI +9.7%, EVTC +9.6%, MASI +9.5%, DECK +9.4%, MGRC +8.6%, FIX +8.1%, APPF +7.7%, NRDS +7.2%, INTC +7.2%, JNPR +6.6%, TBBK +6.1%, AMZN +6%, MMSI +5.5%, COF +5.4%, MTX +5.3%, BFST +5.1%, AVTR +5%, GRPN +4.9%, CPT +4.6%, CMG +4.1%, SKX +3.8%, ATGE +3.4%, CBOE +3.3%, MITK +3%, EQNR +2.7%, SWK +2.7%, ERIE +2.6%, EMN +2.3%, CDP +2%, MHK +2%, TARO +2%, CUZ +1.9%, DAR +1.8%, PII +1.7%, APO +1.4%, SHO +1.3%, EHC +1.3%, GLUE +1.2%, LTC +1.2%, WSR +1%
  • Gapping down:
    • PTCT -22%, ENPH -21.4%, SNY -16.7%, NWG -11%, BIO -8.8%, SBCF -5.7%, OLN -5.5%, ELME -4.6%, EXPO -4.6%, HUBG -4.3%, CC -4.1%, BJRI -4.1%, PEB -3.2%, F -3.1%, COLM -3%, AX -2.2%, ESS -2.2%, TEX -2.1%, MCBC -2%, SAM -1.9%, XEL -1.9%, CSTR -1.8%, CVX -1.6%, NOV -1.5%, ROG -1.2%, STAG -1.1%, NMR -1.1%, ONB -1%, FTS -1%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of October 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Addlife Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 102 kronor
* Cargotec Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 49 euros
* Centamin Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT 140 pence
* Corem Property Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 8 kronor
* Fondia Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 6.80 euros
* GSF LN Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 95 pence (+)
* Glaston Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 80 euro cents
* Intel Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $33
* MFE Raised to Buy at AlphaValue/Baader
* Paradox Interactive Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 250 kronor
* QT Group Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 65 euros
* Remedy Entertainment Raised to Accumulate at Inderes
* Revenio Raised to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 20.50 euros
* Seagate Raised to Hold at Summit Insights
* SEB Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 107 euros
* Trainline Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 300 pence
* Varonis Systems Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $35
* Vincit Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 4.30 euros

>>> Down
* Altria PT Cut to $42 from $47 at Cowen
* BHG Group Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 11 kronor
* Comcast Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $49
* Enphase Energy Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $75
* Euronav Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 17.51 euros
* Gaussin Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 70 euro cents
* GRID LN Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 104 pence (+)
* Kerry Group Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 84 euros
* Mercedes Cut to Neutral at BofA; PT 65 euros (+)
* Paradox Interactive PT Cut to 215 kronor from 315 kronor at Citi
* Reckitt Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 6,400 pence
* Sanoma Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 7.50 euros
* SpareBank 1 Sorost-Norge Cut to Hold at DNB Markets
* TietoEVRY Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 20 euros
* Transocean Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $7
* Vantiva SA Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF (+)
* VP Bank Cut to Underperform at ZKB (+)
* Worldline Cut to Neutral at Redburn; PT 12 euros (+)

>>> Initiation
* CrowdFundMe Rated New Buy at Corporate Family Office; PT 3 euros
* Hornbach Holding Rated New Buy at Dr. Kalliwoda Equity Research
* Sanlorenzo/Ameglia Rated New Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
* Telekom Austria Resumed Neutral at Citi; PT 7 euros
* Tronox Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $11
* Valica Rated New Outperform at EnVent S.p.A.; PT 8.36 euros
* Zion Oil Rated New Overweight at Guotai Junan Sec; PT $154.80

>>> Call
* US Earnings Are Faring Better Than Europe: JPMorgan Strategists (+)
* Goldman Strategists Trim US Firms’ Dividend Forecast for 2024 (+)
* Thule Results Miss on Weakness in RV Segment, Jefferies Says (+)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +4.6%
  • FUCHS SE (FPE3 TH) +1.4%
    • FUCHS SE 9M Revenue EU2.70B Vs. EU2.54B Y/y
  • Imperial Brands (ITB TH) +1.1%
  • Prosus (1TY TH) +1%
  • Veolia (VVD TH) +0.9%
  • Sabadell (BDSB TH) +0.8%
  • Gerresheimer (GXI TH) +0.7%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +0.6%
  • Alstom (AOMD TH) +0.5%
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) +0.5%
  • Novo Nordisk (NOV TH) -0.7%
  • Mercedes (MBG TH) -0.7%
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) -0.8%
  • Nel (D7G TH) -1%
  • TotalEnergies (TOTB TH) -1%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -1.1%
  • Eni (ENI TH) -1.2%
    • Eni 3Q Adjusted Net Income Beats Estimates
  • Pernod Ricard (PER TH) -1.8%
  • Moncler (MOV TH) -6.5%
    • Moncler Consensus Estimates Likely to Be Trimmed: Street Wrap
  • UMG (0VD TH) -12.8%
    • UMG 3Q Ebitda Misses Estimates