Business Of Fashion : How Matches’ Collapse Could Impact Independent Fashion

How Matches’ Collapse Could Impact Independent Fashion
The luxury retailer’s closure has far-reaching knock-on effects for independent brands. Unpaid bills for inventory have pushed some labels into dire financial straits, while confidence in other stockists like

Key Insights
  • Independent brands are still in the dark regarding whether they’ll be paid for orders produced for Matches before it was placed into administration.
  • Confidence in Farfetch-backed Browns is also faltering, with brands now limiting or pausing orders with the shop.
  • Smaller labels are pivoting to direct-to-consumer sales, targeting ultra-wealthy clientele and aggressively cutting costs to hedge against the volatile luxury e-commerce market.

LONDON — Nearly a month after London-based retailer Matchesfashion was placed into administration, independent labels remain in turmoil and uncertainty over when they’ll be paid for orders produced for the retailer — as well as how they might make up for the lost sales elsewhere.

The closure of Matches, announced after Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group abandoned plans to turn around the loss-making e-commerce site, blindsided employees and brands. The move occurred just days after the retailer’s buying directors flew back from placing orders at Milan Fashion Week, and less than three months after Frasers acquired the site.

Trouble had long been brewing for the embattled retailer, which reported £40 million ($50.6 million) in operating losses in 2022, up from £25 million in the previous year. With revenues of £380 million, Matches is a smaller player compared to the likes of Farfetch and Yoox Net-a-Porter, but has historically played an outsize role for independent fashion due to its idiosyncratic buy and long-held image as a booster of small brands.

Matches, which was once valued at $1 billion when it was acquired by Apax Partners in 2017, sold to Frasers Group in a fire sale last fall with its new owner paying just £52 million. By March, the group announced it had placed the retailer into administration and was cutting 273 jobs, over half of Matches’ staff. The retailer is still accepting online orders and this week is holding a clearance sale at an East London venue, offering customers 90 percent off on brands like Jacquemus, Jil Sander, Self-Portrait and 16 Arlington.

Worrying Signs
Vendors say Matches was increasingly requesting sizeable discounts on invoices in the months prior to the shutdown. Turmoil at larger rival Farfetch, which sold to South Korea’s Coupang in a December deal that wiped out most shareholders, provided another signal that brands should rethink their dependence on luxury e-commerce. Still, for many independent labels, the changes may have come too late.

“We had stopped future deliveries to [Matches] to mitigate risk, but unfortunately had already shipped 90 percent of their spring-summer 2024 order in early January,” said Tessa Griffith, managing director of London-based womenswear label Molly Goddard. While the brand known for its £1,190 ($1,496) taffeta dresses has sought to ramp up its direct-to-consumer business in recent seasons, “for a time [Matches] were one of our largest stockists,” Griffith said. The brand declined to comment on the administration process and whether outstanding invoices will be paid.

Molly Goddard is just one of the independent labels to be impacted. Tomorrow Ltd — a brand accelerator and distributor that has invested in brands including A Cold Wall, Martine Rose and Coperni — has taken less than £50,000 worth of orders for the most recent season, down from orders in excess of £1 million previously. Rosh Mahtani, founder of London-based jewellery label Alighieri, told The New York Times last week that Matches was responsible for roughly £500,000 ($629,000) of her projected annual revenue.

“It is clear from conversations that we have had that the failure of Matches has significant repercussions for the wider fashion retail sector, and we’re working at pace with funders and the BFC network to develop a package of support for designer businesses affected,” British Fashion Council chief executive Caroline Rush told BoF over email.

A Broken System
Matches’ downfall has compounded an already punishing climate for independent fashion businesses, whose limited funding and niche offering often make it impracticable to operate retail stores, but for whom the path to profitability at wholesale is increasingly narrow. Brands are contending with rising inventory costs and logistical snags as well as the continued decline of department stores and multi-brand e-tailers. Luxury demand has cooled from post-pandemic highs, with the UK taking an especially hard hit due to the economic fallout from Brexit and the removal of tax-free shopping for tourists.

London-based Farfetch, which connects multi-brand boutiques to its vast online marketplace as well as providing white-label e-commerce services for brands and retailers, was rescued from the brink of bankruptcy when it was acquired by Coupang in December. The company’s plight raises questions over the broader ecosystem of stores and brands that stock the platform, as well as the future of Browns, the historic London-based luxury boutique it acquired in 2015, which is a major account for many small and medium-sized designer brands.

“It’s a race to the bottom,” said Stefano Martinetto, chief executive of Tomorrow Ltd. “The first question I ask of new accounts these days is not when they will make payment, but if they will pay at all.”

“There’s a feeling that independent designers and smaller labels are always last to be paid because retailers feel the need to preserve relationships with big luxury brand vendors,” Martinetto added.

It’s a sentiment that’s shared across the industry. “In 36 years in the business I’ve never seen an environment as bad as this,” said John Murphy, president of London-based luxury womenswear label Natasha Zinko.

Murphy shared the widely-held concern that Browns could be next to fall after Matches: after securing payment for its resort and spring collections, Natasha Zinko decided to stop working with the retailer in November.

Like Molly Goddard, many were seeing signs of the disintegrating luxury e-commerce system long in advance. Yet because online wholesale remains such an entrenched part of the way small brands do business, most could only take measures to mitigate losses rather than avoiding damage completely.

A Survival Strategy
In theory, the simplest way to decrease exposure to the volatile world of luxury e-commerce is to pivot to direct-to-consumer sales — a strategy that cuts out the middleman, builds closer relationships with customers and boosts margins. But pivoting to DTC is easier said than done. Digital marketing is a costly exercise at a time when it’s harder than ever to grab consumers’ attention online, while going direct-to-consumer also comes with operational headaches for small organisations often ill-equipped for the logistical challenges of distribution and order fulfilment.

“For smaller brands selling directly without the support of a distribution or licensing partner or a wealthy backer, this is also an impossible task,” Martinetto said.

Some brands are turning to niche pockets of wealthy consumers, refocusing their product offering and marketing to categories where they feel more confident they’ll see a return.

For Molly Goddard, this has meant ramping up its bridal and made-to-order businesses, while retaining a handful of key wholesale accounts for ready-to-wear, Griffith said.

At Natasha Zinko, the brand is focused on cost-saving, looking inward to focus on top-selling SKUs and relationships with retailers like LA-based Maxfield and multi-brand boutique chain The Webster. Those accounts are still seen as indispensable for getting products in front of the right audience who will covet (and can afford) the brand.

Any and all expenses are up for review: “You constantly have to question every few months: ‘Do we pay for production? Do we need to put on a show this season? Do we need to pay for a certain campaign?”, Murphy said. “Because the ultimate question for smaller brands at the moment is simply: do we just close down?”

WWD : Snoopy Lands on Swatch and Omega’s Latest Release of the Black MoonSwatch

Snoopy Lands on Swatch and Omega’s Latest Release of the Black MoonSwatch
The Swiss watchmakers called upon the lovable Peanuts character and NASA collaborator to decorate the Mission to the Moonphase, emulating the highly collectible Omega Speedmaster "Silver Snoopy Award" editions.

Just when watch collectors believed they were out of the MoonSwatch craze, Swatch and Omega are at it again, revealing the release of a second super sleek, all-black variation of the Mission to Moonphase dubbed “New Moon,” which celebrates the rare solar eclipse that is anticipated to occur on Monday, the watch’s official release date in stores.

Featuring a Bioceramic case (a material that was initially created for space travel), crown and push buttons, along with a Velcro strap, the MoonPhase model continues to reproduce the three sub-dial designs of the Apollo astronauts’ Speedmaster chronograph, but adds Snoopy and his sidekick Woodstock to the 2 o’clock position. As our planet’s moon progresses through its eight phases in the sky, so do the Peanuts pals on the dial as they recline on a crescent moon.

Swatch x Omega MoonSwatch Mission to the Moonphase — New Moon
COURTESY OF SWATCH

Swatch x Omega MoonSwatch Mission to the Moonphase — New Moon
COURTESY OF SWATCH

Swatch x Omega MoonSwatch Mission to the Moonphase – New Moon
COURTESY OF SWATCH
Swatch x Omega MoonSwatch Mission to the Moonphase – New Moon
COURTESY OF SWATCH
Swatch x Omega MoonSwatch Mission to the Moonphase – New Moon
COURTESY OF SWATCH
Another key design emerges as darkness falls and when exposed to UV light, a hidden quote from Snoopy’s comic strip declaring “I can’t sleep without a night light!”, nestled between the crescent moons and stars and shining in bright blue and displayed vertically across the Moonphase window.
Swatch x Omega MoonSwatch Mission to the Moonphase – New Moon
COURTESY OF SWATCH
Swatch x Omega MoonSwatch Mission to the Moonphase – New Moon
COURTESY OF SWATCH

The Snoopy theme continues onto the back of MoonPhase, with a Peanuts style drawing of the moon complete with a beagle’s paw print on the surface of the battery cover.

Swatch x Omega MoonSwatch Mission to the Moonphase – New Moon
COURTESY OF SWATCH

Priced at $310, the soon to be collectible will only be available at select Swatch stores, and will be restricted to one watch per person, per day and per Swatch store.
Swatch x Omega MoonSwatch Mission to the Moonphase – New Moon
COURTESY OF SWATCH

March 26 marked the duo’s two-year anniversary since their inaugural collaboration, which saw the launch of the Bioceramic MoonSwatch Collection, an 11-piece collaboration that turned the watch industry on its head while celebrating the iconic Speedmaster Moonwatch, the first watch ever worn on the moon. At release, the watches included key design features from Omega’s Speedmaster Moonwatch line: an asymmetric case, its famous tachymeter scale and distinctive Speedmaster subdials — with each watch representing a planet in the solar system.

The first MoonSwatch release saw chaotic scenes reported worldwide on launch day, forcing Swatch store closures due to the enormous crowds and due to Swatch stores only being able to sell two watches per client, resulting in an instant sellout.

Additionally, the two-year anniversary, which was timed to coincide with March’s full moon, also led to Swatch and Omega introducing the Mission to the Moonphase, a new MoonSwatch model rendered in all-white featuring NASA’s “watchdog” and Snoopy, who is comfortably positioned in the timepiece’s upper right sub-dial.

While previous iterations in the MoonSwatch lineup utilize the same movement: a basic ETA quartz chronograph, the Mission to the Moonphase model houses a quartz chronograph caliber that incorporates a moonphase complication at the 2 o’clock subdial, replacing the hour counter.

WWD : Groupe Clarins Acquires Domain for Integrated and Responsible Sourcing

Groupe Clarins Acquires Domain for Integrated and Responsible Sourcing
By 2030, one-third of the plants needed for Clarins formulas should be produced on the 115 hectares near Nîmes, as well as on the group’s domain in Haute-Savoie.

PARIS — Groupe Clarins is broadening its responsible sourcing with the acquisition of 115 hectares of land in the commune of Saint Gilles and Générac, near Nîmes, France.

It’s part of the French skin care brand’s “from farm to skin” philosophy involving integrated sourcing.

“I am proud of this strategic advance toward an integrated supply chain always more vertical, ethical and durable,” Virginie Courtin, deputy chief executive officer of Groupe Clarins, said in a statement Friday.

“For 70 years, Clarins has relied on plant science to develop ever more effective and innovative cosmetic formulas,” she continued. “The acquisition of this domain shows this approach of continuous progress toward ever-greater excellence, security and traceability at the service of our customers.”

French beauty suppliers, including Lancôme and Chanel, are increasingly buying land on which their ingredients are grown, in order to maintain tight control over quality and availability.

Clarins’ estate has 50 hectares of cultivable land, where the group intends to grow plants to be used in its products as well as a laboratory for the study and research of new species. The domain uses innovative cultural practices and a unique hydrological approach, according to the company.

Clarins said it aims to combine traceability of the raw materials it uses with quality and effectiveness of its formulas.

The domain’s first cultivation — of 50 tree and plant species — is planned for fall 2024. Those will include prickly pears, quince trees, almond trees, apricot trees, lavender, lemon thyme and blueberries.

Clarins acquired the Domaine de Serraval in Haute-Savoie, France, in 2016, where the company cultivates 2.5 tons of plants annually. Their extractions are integrated into product formulas in the group’s factory in Pontoise, France. Both domains benefit from microclimates, due to their locations near mountains and scrubland, and good soil, the company said.

The first harvests of the domain are planned by 2025 or 2026, with the ultimate goal being that one-third of the plants needed to produce Clarins products are cultivated in its two domains by 2030.

This chimes with Clarins’ historic commitment to planet Earth and its denizens. The company, created in 1954, has always focused on responsible beauty.

Its products are sold in more than 150 countries through 20,000 doors, with almost 95 percent of its sales generated by exports. Clarins is the top-ranking prestige skin care brand, according to NPD BeautyTrends’ panel of five European countries, including France, Germany, the U.K., Italy and Spain.

WWD : Zegna Group Closes Stellar Year, Chairman Confirms Guidance Eyeing Further

Zegna Group Closes Stellar Year, Chairman Confirms Guidance Eyeing Further Growth
Gildo Zegna sees potential in all of the group's brands as the company continues to streamline wholesale distribution and creates a managerial structure for Tom Ford Fashion.

MILAN — Closing what he considers “a stellar and milestone year,” Gildo Zegna, chairman and chief executive officer of the Ermenegildo Zegna Group, is looking ahead to 2024 with confidence.

The group, which comprises the Zegna, Thom Browne and Tom Ford brands, last year more than doubled its net profit, which reached 135.7 million euros, compared with 65.3 million euros in 2022, on revenues that rose 27.6 percent to 1.9 billion euros.

“I am positive in general on all the group’s brands,” the executive told WWD in an interview on Friday, saying he expected first-quarter revenues “to grow in the region of 10 percent at constant exchange rate.”

The group is strengthening its “retail culture,” continuing to streamline its wholesale accounts, and Zegna believes “passing from a transaction to a relation is fundamental in the high end range.” For this reason, the first quarter will see the biggest impact from the rationalization of wholesale, he pointed out.

“Organic performance is expected midsingle-digit negative due to wholesale revenues expected to be down high double digit. Starting from the second quarter and going more into the second part of the year, we are expecting to see an improved performance largely driven by a stronger direct-to-consumer, while the wholesale streamlining will continue.”

He said he was “fairly confident” that the revenue consensus of 2 billion euros for the year “is achievable. For sure it’s challenging, given the global macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, but I am absolutely confident we are taking the right actions to deliver it.”

Mid-term guidance was also “unchanged and fully confirmed.”

“We are on track with the integration of Tom Ford and seeing the first positive signs from the brand’s fashion collection, available now for the past couple of months, and for Thom Browne we are focusing on retail and streamlining the number of wholesale accounts, also through the conversion into concessions, without exiting the department stores,” said the executive, underscoring that now retail accounts for 85 percent of total sales. “This allows consistent pricing, visuals and so on. And we are not seeing any resistance to prices.”

In 2023, the DTC channel recorded sales of 1.26 billion euros, up 37.8 percent compared with 918.2 million euros in 2022.

Wholesale revenues amounted to 634.7 million euros, up 11.3 percent year-over-year.

Sales in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region rose 26.6 percent to 658.7 million euros and revenues in North America soared 41.6 percent to 417.3 million euros. Sales in Latin America were up 25.6 percent to 37.5 million euros and revenues in the Asia-Pacific region climbed 22.2 percent to 788 million euros.

Speaking about the first months of 2024, Zegna said “China is not really slowing down, but is reacting more slowly to the change of the Zegna one brand identity, compared to the U.S. and the Middle East, where the reaction was much faster.”

That said, he clarified that the Chinese cluster is “responding well” to the offer and the events the company is staging in the country. “The aspirational customer is lacking, and is spending less, but we are positioned in the high-end range. It could be a longer journey compared to the U.S., because Z Zegna contributed to a big portion of our sales in China, but gradually Zegna will replace that.”

He admitted that the volatility in Asia, mainly in Greater China, is “higher than expected,” and mainly for Thom Browne, influenced by the challenging environment but also “by the need to reinforce the organization that was not at the level we wanted and needed to face an increasingly challenging market.”

During a conference call with analysts, Rodrigo Bazan, CEO of Thom Browne, said the brand is “very committed to China,” and that streamlining its wholesale distribution represents “short-term pain for long term gain.” Last year the brand generated revenues of 380.3 million euros, up 14.9 percent on 2022. Adjusted operating profit for the brand amounted to 59 million euros, up 22.7 percent on the year before.

The Zegna segment generated revenues of 1.32 billion euros, up 12.4 percent on 1.17 billion euros in 2022. Adjusted operating profit totaled 193.5 million euros, up 36.7 percent on 2022.

The Tom Ford Fashion segment, now designed by Peter Hawkings, generated revenues of 235.5 million euros and adjusted operating losses of 1.7 million euros, mainly attributable to the 15.6 million euro one-off charges related to the purchase price allocation.

During the call, Tom Ford Fashion CEO Lelio Gavazza, who joined the brand last September, said China was still “a small market and a great opportunity,” and that a store will open in Beijing at the end of June. “We are planning massive marketing activities to connect with the Chinese consumer, one of the most important with the American” one, he said.

The importance of structuring the company with a new management organization was made during the call and, on LinkedIn, Joyce Weng now appears as president of Tom Ford Fashion, Greater China, South East Asia and Oceania. Simon Kendall has been named president of Tom Ford Fashion, Americas.

Zegna underscored the importance of investing in the group’s supply chain and the latest addition is a state-of-the-art footwear and leather goods production facility in Parma, Italy, expected to be completed by the end of 2026, as reported. Designed by ACPV Architects Antonio Citterio Patricia Viel, it will employ 300 people, and primarily produce men’s shoes and leather goods. But Zegna pointed out that “it is very important and it is much more than a plant, it’s a project of design, branding, research and development and training center and will house the academy.”

Asked if he was eyeing further acquisitions, Zegna said “there is nothing on the horizon,” but that in any case he was “not looking at buying brands, and a supplier would be more interesting for us.”

He concluded saying that the group “is a guardian of brands, and while short-term results are important, our top priority must always be their overall trajectory. What we should do is well defined; there will be challenges, but we know how to tackle them and how important it is to plan for the long term.”

In 2023, capital expenditure rose to 77.9 million euros, compared with 73.3 million euros a year earlier, mainly related to the expansion of the DTC stores’ network for all brands and, in particular, for Zegna.

As of Dec. 31, net debt stood at 10.8 million euros compared to a cash surplus of 122.2 million euros at the end of 2022, reflecting the investments in subsidiaries and associates, mainly related to the Tom Ford acquisition and the dividend distribution, partially offset by a free cash-flow generation of 71.8 million euros.

CrunchBase : The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: Obsidian Therapeutics And Fli

The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: Obsidian Therapeutics And Flip Headline Another Strong Week

The week saw another five startups lock up rounds of $100 million or more. While the week was a little slower than last, it still is a strong showing for larger, big-money rounds. Biotech took center stage, notching three of the top four rounds.

1. Obsidian Therapeutics, $161M, biotech: It was another big week for biotech startups raising huge sums of cash. This week, Obsidian Therapeutics leads the way. The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company locked up a $160.5 million Series C financing led by new investor Wellington Management. Obsidian is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing engineered cell and gene therapies. The new cash will be used to further its tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte program.

2. Flip, $144M, social media: Social commerce startup Flip locked up $144 million in new cash led by Streamlined Ventures in a deal that values the company at more than $1 billion. It also included a $50 million investment from advertising software firm AppLovin. The Los Angeles-based startup is a marketplace that offers video reviews. Reviewers get paid based on views and product sales and Flip gets a commission on sales and making reviews more visible. Founded in 2019, the company has raised nearly $239 million, per Crunchbase.

3. Alterome Therapeutics, $132M, biotech: Oncology biotech Alterome Therapeutics raised a $132 million Series B led by Goldman Sachs Alternatives. Alterome says its machine learning platform for drug discovery — Kraken — is helping it advance a pipeline of small molecule therapies targeting a spectrum of oncogenic targets. The company has focused on approaches designed to specifically target cancer cells over normal cells. Founded in 2021, the company has raised $231 million, per Crunchbase.

4. Diagonal Therapeutics, $128M, biotech: Diagonal Therapeutics, which is discovering and developing agonist antibodies to fight illness, is the next biotech on the list. The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based firm launched this week with a $128 million Series A co-led by BVF Partners and Atlas Venture. The firm’s lead program is for the treatment of hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia, a severely debilitating bleeding disorder with limited therapeutic options.

5. Aerospike, $109M, database: Real-time NoSQL database management system Aerospike nabbed a nine-figure round this week, closing a $109 million investment led by Sumeru Equity Partners. The company will use the fresh cash to meet increasing demand for databases that can scale thanks to the rapid adoption of AI. Founded in 2009, the Mountain View, California-based startup has raised $241 million, per Crunchbase.

6. Alsym Energy, $78M, energy: Woburn, Massachusetts-based Alsym Energy, a developer of nonflammable rechargeable batteries, announced a $78 million funding round co-led by Tata Limited — a subsidiary of Tata Sons — and General Catalyst. Founded in 2015, the company has raised $110 million, per Crunchbase.

7. SiMa.ai, $70M, semiconductor: San Jose, California-based semiconductor startup SiMa.ai raised $70 million led by Maverick Capital. Founded in 2018, the company has raised $330 million, per Crunchbase.

8. Torus, $67M, energy: South Salt Lake City, Utah-based Torus, which designs and manufactures energy storage and management products, closed a $67 million round — consisting of new equity, conversion of outstanding notes and a loan facility — led by Origin Ventures. This is the first announced round for the company founded in 2021, per Crunchbase.

9. Binx Health, $65M, healthcare: Boston-based Binx Health, a diagnostic testing device for sexually transmitted diseases for healthcare practices and hospitals, says it provides a result within 30 minutes rather than 10 days, which leads to immediate treatment. The company raised a $65 million Series F funding including debt. The funding was led by Hildred Capital with participation from EQT Life Sciences.

10. Homebase, $60M, human resources: San Francisco-based Homebase, a human resources and team management app, locked up a $60 million Series D led by L Catterton Growth. Founded in 2014, the company has raised $189 million, per Crunchbase.

Big global deals
In a rarity, the second-biggest round of the week went to a French startup.
  • Paris-based Pigment, a business forecasting platform, raised a $145 million venture round.

TechCrunch : Hoping to stall a ban, TikTok says it generated $14.7B for US small

Hoping to stall a ban, TikTok says it generated $14.7B for US small businesses last year

As U.S. lawmakers weigh a possible TikTok ban, the ByteDance-owned short-form video app released an economic impact report on Thursday. In it, the company touts the platform generated $14.7 billion for small- to mid-size businesses (SMBs) last year, and a further $24.2 billion in total economic activity, supported through small business’s use of TikTok.

In addition, it says that over 7 million U.S. businesses rely on TikTok and that 224,000 jobs were supported by small business activity on the platform in 2023. Of those, 98,000 jobs were supported directly within SMBs on TikTok. The states with the largest impacts included California, Texas, Florida, New York and Illinois.

The study was performed by the economics forecasting group, Oxford Economics. It measured SMB activity on TikTok, along with ad spend and ROI, and leveraged census data and other measurements to come to its conclusions.

While a report of this size and scope couldn’t be thrown together overnight, the timing of its release is likely not coincidental.

In March, a bill that could ban TikTok passed in the House of Representatives. President Biden said he would sign it into law if it also passes in the Senate. Of concern to TikTok, is that the bill gained bipartisan support, passing the House with a 362-65 vote, despite former President Trump’s change of position on the matter. The Trump administration had previously sought to ban TikTok, calling it a national security risk, but Trump now opposes a ban, saying that Meta would benefit.

Meta is clearly preparing for a possible future where TikTok could be banned, if not spun out from ByteDance. On Wednesday, Facebook was updated to support a new video player across its social network; it will recommend Reels, long-form and Live videos, but default to showing them in vertical format, as on TikTok.

YouTube and other short-form video platforms could also gain increased exposure if TikTok were to be banned, and could pave the way for startups competing in the space, as well.

TikTok’s economic report is a clear attempt to make a case for why the app should be allowed to continue to operate, noting that $5.3 billion in tax revenue last year was supported by small business activity on TikTok, including as a marketing and advertising platform.

The company also presented a variety of case studies where business owners claim that TikTok helped to drive sales, website traffic, and other forms of additional revenue.

Tying the ban to the app’s economic impact is a solid PR strategy — especially since a group of TikTok creators got a judge to successfully block Trump’s TikTok ban in 2020 by saying it would affect their professional opportunities, like brand sponsorships, and ability to make an income.

Though TikTok has been urging users via in-app messages to call Congress to protest a ban, the bill still faces a more difficult path to pass in the Senate — and more so now that the Republican party’s leader has reversed his position on the ban.

Barrons :Dubai’s Crypto Dreams Start With New Regulations

Dubai’s Crypto Dreams Start With New Regulations

The crypto business has gotten off to a rocky start in the U.S., to say the least, with former industry superstar Sam Bankman-Fried just sentenced to 25 years in federal prison for billions in fraud.

Dubai thinks it can do better.

The Persian Gulf financial nexus opened the world’s first dedicated crypto regulator, the Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority, or VARA, in 2022. It has issued a dozen licenses in the past year, including to global heavy hitters like Binance (which paid U.S. authorities a $4.3 billion fine last autumn) and Laser Digital, which is backed by Japanese financial giant Nomura Holdings.

That’s just the beginning, says Jimmie Lenz, a Duke University professor who organized a digital assets conference in neighboring Abu Dhabi last year. “The contrast with the U.S. is amazing,” he says. “They are leading with innovation there.”

The crypto-friendly stance is bearing real-world fruit in Dubai’s sizzling property market, where at least half of all purchases involve virtual currency, estimates Michael Kortbawi, a Dubai-based senior partner at law firm BSA Ahmad Bin Hezeem & Associates. “A lot of the buyers are expats from India or Russia who may have their money in crypto already,” he says.

The Financial Action Task Force, the global money-laundering watchdog based in Paris, gave this trade an implicit vote of confidence in February by removing the United Arab Emirates, the national entity that includes Dubai and Abu Dhabi, from its “gray list.”

So, can crypto really make a clean start in Dubai, with uses beyond speculation? Preventing the sort of naked plunder that Bankman-Fried practiced at FTX should be low-hanging regulatory fruit. “Dubai has got a lot of the blocking and tackling right,” says Austin Campbell, who teaches blockchain markets at Columbia Business School. “They get a B grade so far.”

Starting fresh with a new regulator also has advantages relative to more-established financial centers bidding for crypto business, says Sebastian Widmann, head of strategy at London-based digital asset custodian Komainu. Older-school competitors include Singapore and Hong Kong in Asia, and Monaco and Luxembourg in Europe. “Most jurisdictions are thinking how they can fit this asset class into traditional regulation,” he says.

VARA, for instance, has written explicit rules for staking, a sort of interest-bearing time deposit whose specifics are unique to the crypto world.

Campbell sees a role model for Dubai in Bermuda, which has emerged as a profit-churning global center for reinsurance. But cementing that sort of position takes decades, not two years.

For now, Dubai is attracting “crypto-native” firms with more ambition than track records, he says. The institutional players that crypto enthusiasts have been hoping will normalize the asset class are hanging back a bit. “If I’m an established asset manager or bank branching into digital assets, I’ll go to Singapore,” says Campbell.

Dubai’s crypto boomlet is, of course, also riding an industry bull run. Bitcoin’s price has more than doubled in the past six months. FTX looked great, too, as prices soared in 2021. The real test for its successors, and their regulators, comes with the inevitable next downturn.

One change is clear in crypto since SBF’s heyday: Its user base and business center of gravity are shifting to the developing world. “If you’re in the U.S. or European Union, you don’t need crypto,” Campbell says. “If you’re in Russia, Venezuela, or Myanmar, you might take your chances with the digital wallet.”

And in Dubai, you can cash it out.

Barrons : Buy Carnival Stock. Choppy Market Conditions Will Pass.

Buy Carnival Stock. Choppy Market Conditions Will Pass.
Shares of the cruise operator have dropped since it reported earnings last month. It looks like a dip worth buying.

Carnival has hit some rough waters, but its recent postearnings selloff looks like a great opportunity to book a cruise on its stock at a discount.

At first blush, Carnival’s fiscal first-quarter earnings report on March 27 should have been reason for celebration on the Lido deck. The company reported a loss of 14 cents a share, better than its own guidance for a 22-cent loss and the 18-cent loss that analysts were expecting. In addition, Carnival said it saw record bookings during the quarter, with significantly higher pricing.

It wasn’t all good news, though. Revenue climbed 22% year over year to an all-time high of $5.41 billion, just a hair short of the $5.42 billion consensus. But Carnival also said it would earn 98 cents this fiscal year, five cents higher than its previous guidance and what would be its first profitable year since before the pandemic—only to fall two cents short of analyst forecasts. The stock fell 4.3% during the week ended on March 29.

Several issues probably held shares back. First, the company said that the collapse of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge would make as much as a $10 million dent in profit, and given how recent the tragedy was, that hasn’t been incorporated into Carnival’s guidance. Then there’s the fact that the shares had run up some 11% in the month before earnings, about three times the broader market’s rise, which left little room for surprises.

With the stock now down 17% on the year, at $15.34, Carnival stock looks worth buying. Carnival is successfully “navigating unexpected headwinds [and] delivered yet another strong quarter,” says Macquarie analyst Paul Golding, who raised his price target by $2, to $24, following the results, citing ongoing demand that provides greater visibility into the company’s path to profitability.

Carnival has long been the laggard among the three major cruise operators, which include Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings. That could be due to high-profile past incidents like the Costa Concordia disaster in 2012, its slightly less-well-heeled passengers, slower growth in ticket prices, or a higher debt level—total debt stood at some $30 billion at the end of fiscal 2023, high even by cruise company standards.

Carnival is working hard to put these issues behind it. The company generated adjusted free cash flow of $1.4 billion in its most recent quarter, and redeemed and retired nearly $1 billion of debt with original maturities in 2027. That includes its remaining second-lien debt, which tends to carry higher interest rates, outstanding. It’s well on the path toward an investment-grade rating.

“Over the next few years, Carnival should generate several billion dollars of free cash flow that will be used to repay debt,” says Chris Kissane, credit analyst at Newfleet Asset Management, whose firm owns Carnival bonds. “They want to get back to investment-grade ratings, and they should have the ability to do that, absent a recession.”

Carnival still has work to do, but it also has been making improvements that are helping it to close the gap with competitors. In the first quarter, Carnival’s net “yields”—a measure of passenger spending after stripping out currency changes—were up 17% from the year-ago period, higher than Norwegian’s growth, while occupancy rose 11 percentage points, ahead of Royal Caribbean.

“The demand environment remains robust, and balance sheet restoration is happening in real time,” notes Melius Research analyst Conor Cunningham.

Carnival should also continue to have pricing power. In normal times, investors would start to worry about new cruise ships hitting the water and adding to capacity. The vessels, though, take years to build, and Carnival placed its first order since the pandemic only in February. That means it will continue to operate the nearly 100 ships already on the seas until roughly 2027. Other cruise lines have also held off, which means growth will be limited.

“With cruise lines, you have visibility out about a year or so, so we know the demand is there for the full year of 2024,” says Kissane. “And in 2025 and 2026, we’ll likely have a window where capacity growth across the industry is muted relative to normal.”

Carnival will have to continue to deal with issues around the globe. It previously announced that the conflict in the Red Sea would shave seven to eight cents a share off the full year’s earnings, while the Baltimore bridge collapse—with a $10 million price tag—looks less onerous, at probably a penny a share.

Trading around 13.8 times forward earnings, Carnival is even with Royal Caribbean but cheaper than Norwegian, at 15.4 times. That seems reasonable, given that it’s expected to go from breaking even in 2023 to earning roughly a dollar a share 2024, and by growing earnings per share 42% in fiscal 2025, faster than its two largest competitors.

Tigress Financial Partners’ Director of Research Ivan Feinseth recently boosted his price target on Carnival by $2 to $25, arguing that “the recent pullback in the shares [is] a major buying opportunity.”

You can take that to the bank. Or the beach.