TheChek News Flow

FINANCIAL TIMES

-Donald Trump has appointed Scott Bessent as his US Treasury secretary, a top economic official for his second administration. Bessent will oversee Trump's economic pledges, including tax cuts, while maintaining the stability of the world's largest economy, bond market, and the dollar. Trump's economic philosophy aims to bridge traditional free-market conservatism with populism. Bessent has defended Trump's threat of raising tariffs against accusations of upending relations with allies and raising consumer prices. Trump described Bessent as a respected international investor and geopolitical strategist. Trump praised Bessent for helping usher in a new golden age for the US, strengthening its position as the world's leading economy, center of innovation, and capital destination. Trump also emphasized the importance of reinvigorating the private sector and curbing federal debt.

-Elon Musk's criticism of the federal government's inefficiency is echoed by many, but most presidents have struggled to streamline the administrative state. The proposed government department, Doge, will be more of an advisory committee than a government department. Musk faces significant administrative and legislative hurdles, but the biggest obstacle may be maintaining his reformist zeal. The business of government is dull compared to launching rockets, which Musk dislikes bureaucracy and has a short attention span. However, if anyone can solve the problem, perhaps Elon Musk can. In 2017, after statewide power failures in South Australia, Musk promised Tesla to build the world's largest lithium-ion battery, which he completed in 63 days, beating his own deadline.

-US President-elect Donald Trump's strong dollar could negatively impact emerging market bonds, leading to further outflows from the sector. Investors have pulled nearly $5B from funds investing in dollar and local currency denominated bonds this month, bringing this year's total net outflows to over $20B. Global markets have been dominated by Trump trades, with expectations that his tax cuts and tariffs will fuel inflation and push the dollar and Treasury yields higher. Analysts and investors warn that US tariffs could exert downward pressure on emerging market currencies, as demand for their exports falls, wiping out debt investors' returns in dollar terms. Emerging market debt managers at fund firm GAM believe that all of this is going to be negative for emerging markets.

-Israeli military and Hezbollah are engaged in intense fighting in Chamaa, a hill village near Lebanon's southern border. The village is known for the ruins of a crusader citadel and a significant religious shrine. UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL reported that four Italian peacekeepers were admitted to hospital after two rockets hit its base in Chamaa for the third time this week. This marks some of the deepest known advances of Israeli forces into Lebanon since the ground invasion. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu admitted to parliament that there has been a "certain expansion" of the ground campaign, suggesting that troops are now extending beyond the "first belt" of Lebanese villages closer to the border.

-The Federal Reserve has attributed the sudden increase in market volatility in August to highly leveraged hedge funds selling down their positions to meet internal volatility targets, rather than margin calls from bank lenders. The sell-off in US equities was a result of concerns over the US economy and rising interest rates in Japan, which turned against investors who had borrowed cheaply in yen in a popular trade known as the yen carry. The Fed blamed the liquidity deterioration in the Treasury market and other markets on these hedge funds, stating that measures of leverage averaged across hedge funds in the first quarter of 2024 were at or near the highest level since 2013.

-Italian producers of Parmesan cheese, olive oil, and other delicacies are rushing to ship their products to the US before President-elect Donald Trump can impose new tariffs on imports. The US imported €4.4bn worth of Italian food, wine, and spirits in 2023, but producers fear price hikes following any new levies will curtail American appetite for their products. Michele Buccelletti, a family business producer of olive oil and wine in Tuscany and Umbria, says that producers are rushing to stock up their warehouses before Trump arrives. However, a shortage of cargo space in the run-up to Christmas is constrained, making it difficult to find refrigerated containers. Buccelletti aims to have 50,000 liters en route this month.

-Jaguar Land Rover, owned by Tata Motors, has defended its bold rebranding after a backlash over a new corporate logo and promotional video that did not feature cars. The 30-second clip on X and Instagram featured models dressed in brightly colored outfits to unveil a new company logo that did not feature the iconic "leaper" big cat. The Jaguar campaign drew over 160M views on social media but also angered car enthusiasts, activists, and influencers who were angered that the 90-year-old brand was "going woke" and "throwing away heritage." Jaguar managing director Rawdon Glover said the intended message had been lost in "a blaze of intolerance" on social media and denied that the promotional video was intended as a "woke" statement. He emphasized the need to re-establish the brand and move away from traditional automotive stereotypes.

-A wealthy Italian businessman, Alessandro Bazzoni, was placed on the US Treasury's sanctions list in January 2021 for allegedly trading Venezuelan oil. The US Treasury described him as a "core facilitator" of a network attempting to evade sanctions against PDVSA, Venezuela's state-owned oil company. Despite being listed, Bazzoni continued to run an "important organization" in English polo, acting as patron of two professional teams. He played against Prince William, now Prince of Wales, in a charity polo tournament in July 2022.

-Cuba's annual visitor numbers have nearly halved in six years, dropping from 4.7M in 2017 to 2.4M last year. The country's economy is severely impacted by sanctions, particularly tourism, which is Cuba's third-biggest source of scarce foreign exchange. Last year, tourism generated $1.3B out of total hard currency earnings of $8.4B, well behind the $4.4B earned from exporting state employees, mainly doctors, on contract to friendly countries. Tour operators have experienced significant cancellations from worried tourists during the high season, which stretches from November through March. The country's economy has been strained by a US trade embargo and a new wave of sanctions imposed since 2017. European and US tour companies have attributed the difficulties to regular power cuts and logistical issues, making it increasingly difficult to operate on the island.

NEW YORK TIMES

-President-elect Donald J. Trump has chosen Scott Bessent as the Treasury secretary, a hedge fund manager, to lead the Trump administration's tax plans through Congress. Bessent will be responsible for raising tariffs and cutting taxes. In addition to Bessent, Trump made several other appointments, including Russell T. Vought as the Office of Management and Budget, Lori Chavez-DeRemer as labor secretary, Dr. Martin A. Makary as the Food and Drug Administration, and Dr. Dave Weldon as the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A New York judge postponed Trump's sentencing in his Manhattan criminal case, confirming that he would not receive his punishment on Tuesday as planned.

-At a conference in Paris, corporate chiefs, finance ministers, and top politicians called for a "Europe First" policy to counter Donald Trump's protectionist agenda. European business leaders have been watching as Trump doubled down on an "America First" economic policy, putting protectionism and business-friendly tax and regulatory pledges high on the agenda. With the U.S. presidential inauguration less than two months away, they are furiously lobbying policymakers in Brussels with an appeal of their own: Put Europe First. The prospect of a second Trump presidency has galvanized the European business community, as Trump wields bolder promises to disrupt the global economic order, threatening to leave Europe lagging even further behind.

-US officials have been summoned to the White House to discuss strategies for overhauling the security of the nation's telecommunications networks amid growing alarm at the scope of a Chinese hack. The hack was considered so severe that President Biden took it up directly with President Xi Jinping when they met in Peru last weekend. The meeting in the Situation Room came after weeks of officials grew increasingly alarmed by what they had uncovered about the hack. They now believe hackers from a group called "Salt Typhoon," closely linked to China's Ministry of State Security, were lurking undetected inside the networks of the biggest American telecommunications firms for more than a year.

-New York City has been granted federal approval for a congestion pricing plan, the first of its kind in the nation, which will require most drivers to pay $9 to enter the heart of Manhattan. The Federal Highway Administration approved the plan on Friday, but it could still be stopped by lawsuits. President-elect Donald Trump is also opposed to the plan. The plan will join a small club of global capitals around the world that have installed similar tolling restrictions around their gridlocked centers and seen traffic and air quality improve. New York will now join a small club of global capitals that have installed similar tolling restrictions around their gridlocked centers. The plan is expected to be implemented in January 2024.

-Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla, has built businesses in high-tech manufacturing sectors that are now targeted by Beijing for Chinese dominance. His company, Tesla, makes half its cars in China, selling more cars in China than anywhere except the United States. However, Chinese regulators have not yet allowed Tesla to offer its latest assisted-driving and self-driving car technology, while allowing Chinese automakers to race ahead with similar systems. Musk has personally appealed to China's premier, Li Qiang, for permission to proceed with what Tesla calls Full Self-Driving as the company's market share in China has dwindled. Some experts suggest that Beijing may be able to turn Musk into an influential ally in trying to persuade President-elect Donald Trump to take a more conciliatory approach on trade. Musk has strong business ties in China, and his company's market share in China has dwindled, making it difficult for Tesla to compete with Chinese automakers.

-The terms of a potential cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon are beginning to take shape, according to officials from Lebanon, Israel, neighboring countries, and the United States. The officials cautioned that critical details around implementation and enforcement needed to be worked out, and that disagreements could still scuttle or delay any deal. However, some officials cited reasons for cautious optimism. The proposed agreement calls for a 60-day truce, during which Israeli forces would withdraw from southern Lebanon and Hezbollah fighters would pull back to the north of the Litani River, which runs roughly parallel to the Lebanon-Israel border. The officials from Lebanon, Israel, neighboring countries, and the United States spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive and evolving negotiations.

-Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party has been accused of using "resort politics" to take over Indian state governments. A lawmaker in Maharashtra, India, Nitin Deshmukh, was detained and pressured to join rebel politicians in an uprising. Deshmukh, who represented a district 350 miles away, planned to take an overnight train but was thwarted by an invitation to have dinner in the suburbs with a senior official from their party. Deshmukh was then kidnapped and held in a hotel behind locked gates. The car was heading across state lines, where he would be restrained and drugged after trying to flee. The incident highlights the power dynamics in Modi's India, where cash, kidnappings, and luxury resorts are used as a means to gain power.

-Alcohol deaths have more than doubled in two decades, with Americans dying of illnesses related to alcohol at roughly twice the rate seen in 1999. Alcohol was involved in nearly 50,000 deaths among adults aged 25 to 85 in 2020, up from just under 20,000 in 1999. The biggest spike was observed among adults aged 25 to 34, whose fatality rate increased nearly fourfold between 1999 and 2020. Women are still far less likely than men to die of an illness caused by alcohol, but they also experienced a steep surge, with rates rising 2.5-fold over 20 years. The rate of alcohol-related deaths has been a significant concern for the health and well-being of Americans.

-A recent study by researchers at the University of Southern California and Cleveland Clinic found that a Covid-19 infection doubled the risk of a major cardiovascular event for up to three years afterward. The study also found that infections severe enough to require hospitalization increased the likelihood of cardiac events as much as or more than having previously had a heart attack did. This has led to a growing body of research suggesting that this risk can last until well after the infection has cleared. Dr. David Goff, director for the cardiovascular sciences division at the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, said that many people are at even greater risk of heart attack than they were before. Heart disease is already the leading cause of death on our planet before the pandemic, making this situation concerning.

-The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed a rule to update emission limits for nitrogen oxides, harmful air pollutants from burning fossil fuels. These gases can contribute to asthma and respiratory infections, especially in children, older people, and those who are immuno-compromised. The rule, for the first time in almost two decades, would update emission limits for nitrogen oxides. The rule aims to better protect communities against pollution from natural gas plants and ensure that the power sector has shown that additional pollution controls can be affordably and reliably implemented. Joseph Goffman, the EPA's assistant administrator for air and radiation, stated that these stronger standards are necessary to better protect nearby communities' health.

NEW YORK POST

-A new report by taxpayer-transparency group OpenTheBooks reveals that President Biden's administration spent $267M on studying "misinformation" since his presidency, as President-elect Donald Trump pledges to remove the term from the federal lexicon and make significant spending cuts. The funding was directed towards universities, nonprofits, and companies, peaking at $126M in 2021. The scope of the "misinformation" grant-making emerged as Trump's advisory Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) seeks to trim wasteful spending. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who leads the DOGE with billionaire Elon Musk, said that the truth is often stranger than fiction when it comes to government spending. OpenTheBooks does not account for the cost of in-house efforts by the Biden White House and executive branch agencies to fight alleged incorrect speech, including pressuring social media companies to censor content.

-TJ Maxx CEO Ernie Herrman has suggested that the discount retailer may benefit from Trump's proposed tariffs. Under the proposals, a universal 10%-20% tariff could be imposed on imports from all foreign countries, and an additional 60%-100% tariff could be imposed on imports specifically from China. This could create additional availability of goods at advantageous prices for TJ Maxx, as manufacturers could bring in goods early. Herrman declined to speculate on what will happen with tariffs but said that the company is "set up to ensure that we maintain our value gap" between its competitors. No matter what happens with tariffs, the company will ensure its values are proportionately below them as they always have been. TJ Maxx also owns Marshalls, HomeGoods, HomeSense, and Sierra.

Cover:

-The US government has proposed remedies to break Google's hold on search, causing Alphabet's stock to fall 4.7% to $167.63. This comes amid concerns about the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI), which can answer complex questions in plain language. This has created an opening for competitors like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Microsoft, which could siphon users away from Google and potentially damage its advertising business. Without search and ad dollars, Alphabet's stock would collapse. However, Alphabet is more than up to defending itself, having navigated the internet's shifting terrain since going public in 2004. As generative AI continues to grow, it has the potential to add revenue as Gemini, Google's AI tool, becomes more powerful. The government's attempt to break Alphabet apart could be an overhang, but it appears to be reflected in the stock, which is the cheapest of the Magnificent Seven and even cheaper than the S&P 500 index. Despite the future, Google's search business remains dominant and cash-generating, and this is unlikely to change as people find information.

Interview:

-US economic growth has exceeded expectations this year, despite cooling inflation and a softening labor market. The outlook for 2025 is for more growth, but the incoming Trump administration's fiscal policies could potentially lead to inflation, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve. John Williams, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is an expert in the neutral rate of interest, a theoretical rate that neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth. Williams' insights will be particularly valuable as the Fed moves to bring interest rates to a level that balances the US economy. He recently spoke with Barron's about his economic and inflation outlook, the Fed's goals, and the global implications of China's struggle to maintain growth.

Tech Trader:

-Nvidia's AI growth story is not over, as the company's new Blackwell graphics processing unit has seen limitless demand, boosting its stock price. The company reported a 94% year-over-year growth in sales to $35 billion for the three months ending in October, with the data-center business growing 112%. Net profit doubled to $20 billion over the prior year, and the company provided a robust outlook for the current quarter, slightly exceeding Wall Street expectations. Nvidia shares fell in after-hours trading following the report, but investors should focus on the big picture and not overlook the unprecedented magnitude of Nvidia's performance. The main question is whether Nvidia can produce another big growth year in 2025, satisfying Wall Street's forecast for 54% revenue growth. Nvidia's executives suggest the answer is yes, with Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress stating that Blackwell demand is staggering and the company is racing to scale supply to meet the incredible demand. CEO Jensen Huang said that Blackwell revenue for the current quarter would exceed the company's prior guidance of "several billion dollars."

The Trader:

-Pinterest, a website that provides ideas for recipes and clothes, has experienced a 15% drop in shares to $29 following its third-quarter earnings report. The company's guidance for fourth-quarter sales was criticized for a 16% increase, a touch slower than the 18% growth expected in the previous quarter. This raised concerns about the business's ability to maintain profitability and potential decrease in profit margins. However, management has often underpromised and overdelivered on sales, with better third-quarter growth than its earlier 17% midpoint guidance. The company has surpassed sales estimates in 18 out of the past 20 quarters, according to FactSet. Pinterest could be setting expectations low to deliver a pleasant surprise when it reports its fourth-quarter numbers in February.

-Anti-obesity drugmakers Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Amgen have experienced a drop in stock prices due to concerns over the potential impact of a Robert F. Kennedy Jr.-run Department of Health and Human Services. The market has been tumultuous, with the selling starting as profit-taking and picking up steam after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and the election approached. When President-elect Donald Trump appointed RFK Jr. to lead the agency, panic selling set in. Kennedy is not fond of Novo Nordisk's weight-loss treatment Ozempic, which costs the government too much to insure. Investors are concerned that he may push for less insurance coverage or lower GLP-1 prices. Amgen stock has dropped 9% in November, while Lilly has fallen 17% and Novo Nordisk has declined 10%. However, the agency doesn't have unilateral power to change drug coverage and pricing, and it would require an act of Congress to allow Medicare to pay for anti-obesity drugs.

Features:

-Chinese businesses are preparing for the potential trade protectionist policies that could come from the second Trump administration, as exports grew at the fastest pace in over two years in October. Most of that growth was due to factories rushing inventories to major markets in anticipation of further tariffs from the US and the European Union, as the threat of renewed trade wars grows. Chills are being felt from upstream shippers all the way down to the sales segment, including firms that sell domestically. China's exports to the US are dominated by electronic equipment, machinery, vehicles, plastics, irons and steel, furniture, apparel, and toys and games. Export-dependent business owners are preparing for the worst, as they are preparing for the worst.

-Pam Bondi, the former Florida attorney general and President-elect Donald Trump's new nominee for US Attorney General, faces potential questions about her investment in Trump Media & Technology Group, the publicly traded owner of Truth Social. Bondi owns 106,250 shares of DJT, which went public in March following a merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp., a blank check special purpose acquisition company. At current prices, that stake is worth nearly $3.3M. Bondi also owns 31,250 warrants to purchase DJT common stock. Bondi, now a partner in the Washington, DC, office of lobbying firm Ballard Partners, will undoubtedly face questions about her investment in DJT. Bondi's brother Brad Bondi, a lawyer at Paul Hastings, also worked on the deal to bring Trump Media public but isn't listed as owning any DJT shares.

Europe:

-The growing tensions between Russia and the US over the Ukraine war are posing significant risks to global security and the US nuclear power plants. On November 14, Russia halted the export license for a company that sends enriched uranium to the US for use in nuclear reactors. As a result, all shipments of enriched Russian uranium, which accounts for 40% of the global supply, are stalled. Uranium prices and stocks of uranium miners have spiked, with shares of US miner Uranium Energy up 14% and Canadian miner Cameco 11%. Centrus Energy, which imports Russian uranium for US utilities, initially fell but has since rebounded. A shortage of certain types of enriched Russian uranium could pose significant risks for the ramp up of small modular reactors in the US. Although America's 94 existing nuclear reactors have supplies of enriched uranium stored up, the future of US nuclear plants could be in jeopardy if imports from Russia are banned indefinitely and the US cannot develop a domestic uranium supply chain. Centrus Energy, based in Bethesda, Maryland, has received notice from Russian uranium exporter Tenex that the latter's license to export uranium to the US has been revoked by the Russian government.

Emerging Markets:

-No update

Commodities:

-President-elect Donald Trump is considering restarting the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada to the US, according to three unnamed sources who spoke to Politico. Trump wants to greenlight the pipeline on his first day in office. Chris Wright, Trump's pick for Secretary of Energy, believes restarting the pipeline is one of the most important things the government can do to boost energy supplies. Restoring the pipeline would be a monumental task, as the pipeline has been abandoned and parts are being sold off. Water company Cadiz recently bought 180 miles of steel that had originally been purchased for use in the pipeline, which Cadiz plans to use to transport water through the Mojave Desert. Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors and an expert in pipelines, told Barron's that the chances of Keystone XL being revived are very low and probably zero.

-Gold has experienced a significant surge this year, surging more than 28% to nearly $2,650 an ounce, thanks to central bank buying and other factors. This has made gold historically expensive compared to other assets, including commodities like oil and base metals. However, US stocks are enjoying their own historic rally, with the S&P 500 at its highest level since the dot-com bubble. North American gold exchange-traded funds hold about 1,640 tonnes of gold today, down from a 2020 peak of over 2,000 tonnes. Analyst Mike McGlone argues that sentiment could shift at any moment due to the high prices of U.S. stocks.

Streetwise:

-Cristiano Amon, the CEO of Qualcomm, has been tasked with expanding the company's revenue into new areas to boost its stock price. The company's growth in the artificial-intelligence market is largely due to Nvidia, the artificial-intelligence world beater, which has seen a 185% increase in just one year. The PHLX Semiconductor index, which tracks Nvidia and other chip-making companies, is trailing the S&P 500 index. Intel, the worst performer, is losing market share in data centers and personal computers. Qualcomm, on the other hand, has seen a 10% increase this year and a 17% increase since Amon took over. The majority of Qualcomm's revenues come from mobile devices, which contributes to its slow growth. This is why Qualcomm trades at less than 15 times projected earnings compared to Nvidia's more than 50 times. Additionally, some handset makers like Apple and Samsung Electronics have the financial and manufacturing resources to produce more components in-house. Apple plans to drop Qualcomm for 5G chips in two new iPhone models next year.

The post-election rally resumed this week as a confluence of factors appeared to reinforce investor sentiment. Key November earnings reports illustrated both the US consumer and the generational AI transformation continue to perform as largely expected. Breadth, in particular, was encouraging with advancers leading decliners broadly. Importantly, US interest rates held within recent ranges. The benchmark 10-year yield remained capped by what is largely viewed as important, post-election resistance at 4.5%. Separately, President-elect Trump was forced to abandon his controversial AG nomination, suggesting Congressional Republicans can offer some modicum of restraint when he retakes control next year. Also, Trump’s speculated Treasury Secretary picks seemed to engender further confidence from investors. Finally, even a brief bout of risk aversion related to a worrisome, ratcheting up of Ukraine tensions between the US and Russia was easily digested. For now, a missile salvo that included the first ever combat use of a hypersonic, intermediate range ballistic missile by the Russians, and stepped up rhetoric by President Putin were mostly viewed through the prism of the likely final throes of the conflict, before new US administration pushes all parties to the bargaining table and hopefully yields some kind of détente.

On the data front, US PMI readings were solid and mostly in-line with expectations, led by strength in services with favorable underlying growth and signs of continued cooling inflation. Juxtaposed to that was European PMI data that plunged, with services contracting and manufacturing sinking deeper into recessionary territory. The US dollar index rose to a fresh 2-year high on Friday with the Euro testing below 1.04. Futures markets see only slightly better odds that the Fed cuts by 25 bps next month while EU markets have begun to handicap a 50 bps cut from the ECB. Bitcoin continued its run towards 100K as reports suggested Trump will look to reward crypto advocates through White House staffing decisions. For the week, the S&P and Nasdaq each gained 1.7%, while the DJIA climbed 2%.

Corporate news featured most of the final big earnings reports of the pre-holiday quarter. Nvidia maintained its lofty status as the leading edge of the AI revolution, beating quarterly expectations, though its guidance wasn’t as stellar as traders have come to expect. Management eased concerns about growth deceleration by denying recent reports about overheating issues with its Blackwell GPUs and describing demand for the new product is “staggering” with deliveries ahead of plan. The Gap hit the mark with consumers, beating estimates and raising guidance as online sales saw good growth and management reported holiday selling is off to a “strong start”. Walmart reported a strong quarter and raised guidance, but also became the latest big retailer to warn that potential new tariffs next year could force them to raise prices. In contrast, Target had terrible quarterly results, saying it had encountered some “unique” challenges and cost pressures as gross margins and operating margins fell. Baidu fell to a 52-week low after reporting quarterly results, and despite touting progress on its AI products the stock has given up all of the 40% gains it saw two months ago as China unleashed its latest stimulus barrage.

MON 11-18

(RU) US Pres Biden reportedly for the first time authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles ATACMS to hit targets inside Russia (for now only in Kursk region) is a significant reversal in US policy – WaPo

(US) Tier1 analysts citing call with co-owner of housing advisor firm Parrott Ryan Advisor: Immigration is a key risk to US homebuilders; NAHB estimates immigrants make up 31% of construction tradesmen; Major GSE reform still seems unlikely

(US) Treasury Dept Issues Final Regulations to Sharpen and Enhance CFIUS Procedures and Enforcement Authorities to Protect National Security

ADM Reports Final Q3 $1.09 v $1.09 prelim, Rev $19.9B v $20.6Be; Affirms guidance; Foresees softer market conditions into next year

BECN Building products distributor QXO said to be in discussions to make bid - WSJ

BKKT DJT in advanced talks to buy crypto trading venue Bakkt - FT

CSCO Signs Multi-Year Agreement with MGM Resorts International; Gives MGM Resorts access to much of Cisco's software portfolio and Customer Experience (CX) services

CTVA Announces Breakthrough in Wheat Technology; Breakthrough has the potential to increase yield by 10%

INVH Announces $200M JV with a leading global real estate investment partner; Expected to deploy ~$500M, including debt, to acquire newly constructed homes

NVDA NVIDIA Accelerates Google Quantum AI Processor Design With Simulation of Quantum Device Physics

TUES 11-19

(EU) EURO ZONE OCT FINAL CPI Y/Y: 2.0% V 2.0%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.7%E

(IR) IAEA: Iran has agreed to stop producing near-bomb grade uranium, and to allow experienced inspectors to conduct verifications

(RU) Russia Pres Putin approves updated nuclear doctrine; Russian spokesperson say Russia may use nuclear weapons in response to aggression using conventional weapons supported by a nuclear power (as announced in Sept) - Russian press

(UR) UKRAINE REPORTEDLY MAKES FIRST US-MADE ATACMS LONG-RANGE MISSILE STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA'S BORDER REGION - UKRAINE PRESS CITING UKRAINE MILITARY OFFICIAL [**Note: Ukraine has already used UK long-range missiles Storm Shadow (which have even longer range than ATACMS) in past years to strike Crimea]

(US) Fed's Schmid (non-voter for 2024; voter for 2025; hawk): Large fiscal deficits won't cause inflation because Fed will prevent it, though that would mean higher interest rates - speech text

(US) Pres-elect Trump said to interview both Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan for US Treasury Secretary job on Wednesday - financial press

(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q4 GDP forecast from 2.5% to 2.6%

CMCSA Reportedly confirms plans to spin off NBCUniversal cable channels; Said timeframe will take 1 year to complete - press

LEU Russian low enriched uranium trade partner TENEX has export license to US suspended, effective Dec. 31st; Centrus will be in communication with its customers whose pending orders may be affected and is assessing actions to mitigate adverse impacts (update)

LOW Reports Q3 $2.99 v $2.81e, Rev $20.2B v $20.0Be; Raises mid-point of sales outlook, but trims margin; Notes continued softness in DIY bigger-ticket discretionary demand, which was partly offset by storm-related sales and positive comparable sales in Pro and online

TKA.DE Reports FY23/24 Net -€1.4B v -€2.0B y/y, adj EBIT €567M v €526Me, Rev €35.0B v €34.9Be

J Reports Q4 $1.37 v $1.36e, Rev $2.96B v $2.99Be; Book-to-bill continues to grow

WMT *EXEC: HOLIDAY PERIOD IS OFF TO PRETTY GOOD START; TARIFFS COULD FORCE WALMART RAISE PRICES; CONSUMERS ARE WAITING TO MAKE GENERAL MERCHANDISE PURCHASES UNTIL THEY SEE A COMPELLING DEAL, ESPECIALLY AS THEY PAY MORE FOR FOOD - PRE-EARNINGS MEDIA CALL WITH CNBC

WMT Q3 US Grocery SSS +mid single digit y/y; Q3 US Grocery inflation bps 100bps (primarily to eggs) v 60bps in Q2 - earnings call

WMT Reports Q3 $0.58 v $0.53e, Rev $169.6B v $167.5Be; Raises outlook again

WEDS 11-20

(RU) REPORTEDLY RUSSIA PRES PUTIN IS OPEN TO DISCUSSING A UKRAINE CEASEFIRE DEAL AND SECURITY GUARANTEES FOR UKRAINE WITH US PRES-ELECT TRUMP AND ALSO OPEN TO WITHDRAWING FROM "RELATIVELY SMALL" PATCHES OF UKRAINE TERRITORY, BUT RULES OUT MAKING ANY MAJOR TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS AND INSISTS UKRAINE ABANDON AMBITIONS TO JOIN NATO - PRESS CITING RUSSIAN SOURCES

(UK) OCT CPI M/M: 0.6% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.2%E (highest annual pace since Apr)

(US) Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast forecasting Nov US CPI Y/Y to accelerate again to 2.7% from 2.6% for Oct US CPI Y/Y

(US) Follow Up: Some House Republicans may block Pres-elect Trump from using a recess appointment on attorney general nominee Gaetz, but Pres-elect Trump said to be convinced that Speaker Johnson is on board for recess appointments idea; Several House Republicans would vote against any motion to go into recess - Axios

(US) Pres-elect Trump reportedly to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline - Politico

(US) Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast forecasting Nov US CPI Y/Y to accelerate again to 2.7% from 2.6% for Oct US CPI Y/Y

(US) Reportedly Pres-elect Trump is looking more seriously at Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) for Treasury secretary – Axios

*TTN Reminder: In late Sept, Iran was said to be brokering talks to send advanced Russian supersonic anti-ship missiles to Yemen's Houthis, which would be a “game changer” for regional security; That press report cited that Russia did not make final decision on it, but would potentially arm the Houthis in case "Western states decide to allow Ukraine to use their weapons to strike farther into Russian territory"

BARC.UK TTN Summary of 03:45ET J.P. Morgan UK Leaders Conference: Credit environment in the UK remains benign with Q3 loan loss rate at 3 basis points; US cards delinquencies higher than last year as expected but have stabilized.

F Plans to cut 4K jobs in Europe by end-2027, including 2.9K jobs in Germany

NVDA Reports Q3 $0.81 v $0.75e, Rev $35.1B v $33.2Be; Affirms Blackwell production shipments are scheduled to begin in Q4

NVDA TTN Summary of 17:00ET Earnings Call: There are 'no issues' with overheating in the liquid-cooled Grace Blackwell servers; Blackwell is now in the hands of all our major partners; Expects to deliver more Blackwells in Q4 than previously estimated; Customers are gearing up to deploy Blackwell at scale and demand for Blackwell is 'staggering'

PANW Reports Q1 $1.56 v $1.48e, Rev $2.14B v $2.12Be; Announces 2:1 stock split; Raises guidance

TGT Reports Q3 $1.85 v $2.29e, Rev $25.2B v $25.9Be; Cuts outlook and guides Q4 weak; Encountered some unique challenges and cost pressures

TJX Reports Q3 $1.14 v $1.09e, Rev $14.1B v $14.0Be; Says Q4 is off to a strong start, but guides Q4 below est at midpoint; Planning to enter Spain with its TK Maxx banner in early 2026

THRS 11-21

(RU) Russia Pres Putin: After long range attacks from Ukraine, this regional conflict has gained elements of a global one - Statement

(UR) REPORTEDLY UKRAINE AIR FORCE SAYS RUSSIA FIRED ICBM AS PART OF OVERNIGHT ATTACK - PRESS (UNCONFIRMED) [**Note: first time a missile of this power and range has been used during Ukraine/Russia war]

(US) BOFA INSTITUTE: WEEK-TO-NOV 16TH TOTAL CARD SPENDING +0.6% Y/Y V +1.0% ON AVERAGE IN OCTOBER; Within the sectors we report, online electronics, airlines & lodging showed the biggest y/y rise since Nov 3rd

(US) Fed’s Barkin (voter for 2024; non-voter for 2025): Do not want to prejudge December decision; Fed should not preemptively adjust monetary policy ahead of possible changes in economic policy; US more vulnerable to inflation shocks - FT

(US) Fed's Schmid (non-voter for 2024; voter for 2025; hawk): Fed will wait to react to fiscal policy - Q&A session

(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 213K V 220KE (lowest since Apr); CONTINUING CLAIMS:1.908M V 1.88ME (~1-yr high)

(US) NOV PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: -5.5 V +8.0E

(US) Reportedly Pres-elect Trump's search for a Treasury secretary remains in flux, with Trump telling allies and advisers in recent days that he’s yet to be completely sold on the candidates he’s interviewed so far - press

(US) US Pres Elect Trump names Pam Bondi as Attorney General - press

(US) TRUMP SAID TO CONSIDER HAVING KEVIN WARSH SERVE AS TREASURY SEC AND THEN FED CHAIR - WSJ Timiraos

(US) Redfin: The number of homebuyers and sellers contacting Redfin agents has jumped over the last week, with Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index posting its biggest Y/Y increase since early 2022

(US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: -3 BCF VS. +5 BCF TO +7 BCF INDICATED RANGE (first negative reading since early Sept)

(JP) JAPAN OCT NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.3%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD (CORE) Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.2%E

(ZA) SOUTH AFRICA CENTRAL BANK (SARB) CUTS INTEREST RATES BY 25BPS TO 7.75%; AS EXPECTED

BIDU Reports Q3 (CNY) 16.60 v 20.40 y/y, Rev 33.6B v 34.4B y/y; Notes in Nov, its AI bot ERNIE handled approximately 1.5B API calls daily v 600M in August

DE Reports Q4 $4.55 v $3.90e, Net Sales $9.28B v $9.15Be; Guides initial FY25 below est

DE Guides initial FY25 R&D expenses down slightly; Oct US/Canada Retail Sales of 2WD Tractors and Combines drop was bigger for Deere comparing with industry average - earnings slides

ESTC Reports Q2 $0.59 v $0.38e, Rev $365M v $354Me; Raises guidance, CFO to leave December 31, 2024

GAP Reports Q3 $0.72 v $0.56e, Rev $3.83B v $3.80Be

GOOGL Exec: To file our own proposals in Dec and to make our broader case in 2025

INTU Reports Q1 $2.50 v $2.36e, Rev $3.28B v $3.14Be; Guides Q2 light, affirms FY25 outlook

OPENAI.IPO Reportedly considering launching a browser product to challenge Google – TheInformation

PDD Reports Q3 (CNY) 18.59 v 19.67e, Rev 99.4B v 102.8Be (v 68.8B y/y); Notes intensified competition and ongoing external challenges

FRI 11-22

(EU) EURO ZONE NOV PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 45.2 V 46.0E (29th month of contraction); Services PMI in 1st contraction in 10 months; Business sentiment dropped sharply and was the lowest since September 2023; Notes if the euro keeps weakening, purchase prices might even rise in the coming months, especially if the EU Commission imposes counter-tariffs in response to potential US tariff hikes

(FR) FRANCE NOV PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 43.2 V 44.5E (lowest since Jan and 22nd month of contraction); Notably, French companies anticipate the contraction trend in activity to carry on into 2025 as, for the first time since May 2020; Notes no sign of relief given the deadlock over the country's 2025 budget

EUR/USD *Hits two-year low following weak PMIs, particularly in services, as ECB futures now pricing 50% chance for 50bps cut in Dec v <20% chance before PMIs

USD/JPY Charles Schwab's chief global investment strategist: Traders are piling up bets against the yen again, less than a month before the next BOJ meeting on Dec 19th when a hike like the last one in August could trigger a reversal

(US) Fed semi-annual financial stability report: Asset valuation pressures remained elevated; Auto and credit card loan delinquencies are above pre-pandemic levels; Hedge fund leverage near highest level since 2013

(UK) NOV PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.6 V 50.0E (2nd straight contraction and lowest print since Feb 2024); Notes prices charged inflation resumed its downward trajectory in November, despite a faster increase in overall input costs.

- Services PMI: 50.0 v 52.0e

(US) NOV PRELIMINARY S&P MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.8 V 48.9E

(US) NOV FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 71.8 V 73.9E; - 5-10 year inflation expectations 3.2% v 3.1% prelim

(CN) European Parliament Intl Trade Committee Chair Lange: Close to agreement with China to abolish EV import tariffs

Tier1 analysts citing call with Flexport expert: In recent weeks has seen some customers pull forward orders ahead of potential tariffs and US East Coast strikes; Ocean rates could move higher in the coming months, but base case would be ocean rates trending lower in 2025 on easing pull-forward demand and new supply