FT : Natixis in talks with Generali over asset management tie-up

Natixis in talks with Generali over asset management tie-up
Deal would bring together two of the biggest names in European asset management

France’s Natixis Investment Managers, which has $1.3tn in assets under management, is in early-stage talks with Italian insurer Generali about a potential tie-up, according to several people familiar with the situation. 

Such a combination would bring together two of the biggest names in European asset management as the sector turns to dealmaking to scale up and expand distribution.

Terms are not agreed and it is not certain that the talks between Natixis and Generali will lead to a deal, the people said. Natixis was not immediately available to comment. Generali and Groupe BPCE, the majority owner of Natixis, declined to comment.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 25th of November 2024 V3(++)

>>> Up
* 3i Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 4,069 pence
* Alfa Laval Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Aroundtown Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Bachem Raised to Buy at Octavian; PT 86 Swiss francs
* Banco BPM Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 8.20 euros
* Barratt Redrow PLC Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 507 pence
* Cava Group PT Raised to $158 from $128 at Argus (++)
* Coinbase PT Raised to $358 from $265 at Oppenheimer (++)
* CrowdStrike PT Raised to $400 from $325 at Evercore ISI (+)
* Equinor Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 400 kroner
* Elastic Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $135
* JD Sports Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Liontrust Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 560 pence
* LWB PW Raised to Neutral-Short Term Sell at Santander Biuro Maklerskie (+)
* MicroStrategy PT Raised to $510 from $300 at Canaccord (+)
* Nordea Bank Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Reddit PT Raised to $175 from $120 at Jefferies (+)
* Robinhood Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $55
* Santander Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 5.90 euros
* Santander Brasil ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $6
* Siemens Energy PT Raised to 70 euros from 35 euros at Berenberg
* Snowflake Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $190
* Vestas Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Walmart PT Raised to $100 from $80 at Argus (++)
* Weir Group PLC/The Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)

>>> Down
* Barrick Gold Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$30.75
* Beneteau Cut to Neutral at CIC; PT 8 euros (+
* CaixaBank Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 6.25 euros
* Dassault Aviation Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Hiscox PT Cut to 1,000 pence from 1,150 pence at Jefferies
* ING Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 17.50 euros
* Kone Cut to Underperform at RBC; PT 44 euros
* Orsted Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 445 kroner
* Seri Industrial Cut to Neutral at Intermonte; PT 3.50 euros (++)
* Thales Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* VGP Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)

>>> Initiation
* Canatu Rated New Buy at Bryan Garnier; PT 15 euros (+)
* Lundbergforetagen Rated New Sell at ABG; PT 493 kronor

>>> Call
* 3i Raised at Morgan Stanley, CVC Now Top Diversified Pick
* Kone Cut to Underperform at RBC on Downside Risks to Consensus
* Morgan Stanley Strategists Say Europe Financials Lead EPS Beats (+)
* Nordea, Santander Raised at Morgan Stanley, Now Among Top Picks
* RBC’s Calvasina Sees S&P 500 Rallying 11% Through End of 2025 (+)
* Mega Cap Outperformance Not Due to Passive Flows: Citigroup (+)

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Banco Santander Brasil (BSBR) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $6
    • Elastic (ESTC) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush; tgt $135
    • Equinor (EQNR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
    • Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $353
    • KinderCare Learning Companies (KLC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $30
    • Procter & Gamble (PG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson; tgt raised to $209
    • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $55
    • Sally Beauty (SBH) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen; tgt raised to $16
    • Snowflake (SNOW) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush; tgt $190
    • Synchronoss Tech (SNCR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at ROTH MKM; tgt raised to $13
    • The Trade Desk (TTD) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at New Street; tgt raised to $115
    • U.S. Bancorp (USB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup; tgt raised to $65
    • W.R. Berkley (WRB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt $69
  • Downgrades:
    • Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman; tgt $313
    • Banco Bradesco (BBD) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan
    • Block (SQ) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt raised to $100
    • Community Health (CYH) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $2.50
    • Despegar.com (DESP) downgraded to Sell from Buy at TD Cowen; tgt raised to $14
    • Eagle Materials (EXP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital; tgt $315
    • Editas Medicine (EDIT) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $1
    • Expensify (EXFY) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities
    • Five Below (FIVE) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Telsey Advisory Group; tgt lowered to $95
    • HCA (HCA) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $320
    • M&T Bank (MTB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt raised to $230
    • Mainz Biomed B.V. (MYNZ) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at H.C. Wainwright
    • Newmark Group (NMRK) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • NIO (NIO) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt lowered to $3.90
    • Perspective Therapeutics (CATX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $5
    • Red Rock Resorts (RRR) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $44
    • Select Medical (SEM) downgraded to Hold from Buy at The Benchmark Company
    • Smith Douglas Homes Corp (SDHC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $36
    • Tenet Healthcare (THC) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt lowered to $150
  • Others:
    • AES (AES) resumed with an Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt $11
    • Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt $89
    • Arm Holdings plc (ARM) initiated with a Buy at UBS; tgt $160
    • Berry Global (BERY) resumed with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $76
    • Berry Global (BERY) resumed with a Neutral at Citigroup; tgt $76
    • Brown-Forman (BF.B) initiated with an Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $48
    • Constellation Brands (STZ) initiated with a Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $261
    • Coursera (COUR) initiated with a Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $8
    • CSW Industrials (CSWI) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $425
    • Hannon Armstrong Sust. Infr. (HASI) resumed with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $40
    • Immunic (IMUX) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $10
    • Manhattan Assoc (MANH) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt $326
    • MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt $27
    • Marsh McLennan (MMC) resumed with an Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt $242
    • Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) initiated with a Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $64
    • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) initiated with a Sell at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $80
    • Shoals Technologies (SHLS) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $6
    • SPS Commerce (SPSC) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Sandler; tgt $198
    • SPX Technologies (SPXC) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $199
    • Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen
    • V2X (VVX) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $80

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • M -2.5% (Q3 revs above consensus, delays Q3 earnings report)
Other news:
  • BHVN -14.4% (Provides Update on Taldefgrobep Alfa Development Program for Spinal Muscular Atrophy and Obesity)
  • SAVA -5.4% (Topline Phase 3 Data Did Not Meet Co-Primary Endpoints)
  • REPL -3.9% (announces a proposed public offering of $125 mln of shares of its common stock and pre-funded warrants to purchase shares of common stock)
  • BTU -3.3% (to acquire Tier 1 Australian metallurgical coal assets from Anglo American)
  • CYH -2.5% (enters definitive agreement to sell ShorePoint Health System in Florida for $265 mln)
  • SUM -2.2% (Summit Materials Enters into definitive agreement to be acquired by Quikrete for $52.50/share in cash)
  • CPK -1.7% (establishes $100 mln at-the-market equity offering program)
  • LMT -1.3% (awarded a $870 mln US Navy contract)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • UXIN +15.5%, BBWI +13%
Other news:
  • NVX +22.8% (signs binding offtake agreement with PowerCo)
  • BBIO +19.2% (reports Attruby (acoramidis), a Near Complete TTR Stabilizer (=90%), approved by FDA to Reduce Cardiovascular Death and Cardiovascular-related Hospitalization in ATTR-CM Patients)
  • EVTL +7.5% (receives $50 million in new funding as part of $180 million transaction that will strengthen its financial position and advance its Flightpath 2030 Strategy)
  • ORGO +5.7% (announces plans to expand its manufacturing capacity with new long-term lease for biomanufacturing facility in Rhode Island)
  • MSTR +5.2% (Barron's out positive on MSTR)
  • EQT +4.3% (confirms $3.5 billion midstream joint venture with Blackstone (BX) Credit & Insurance)
  • NTLA +4.1% (FDA has granted Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy designation to nexiguran ziclumeran for the treatment of hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis with polyneuropathy)
  • SMLR +2.9% (reports updated bitcoin and ATM activity; Company launches additional $50.0 mln ATM offering)
  • ENLC +2.8% (ONEOK agrees to acquire remaining publicly held common units in EnLink midstream in a tax-free transaction)
  • QSI +2.5% (announces organizational restructuring program, including workforce reduction)
  • ALNY +2.5% (announces that the U.S. FDA has accepted for review the Company's supplemental New Drug Application for vutrisiran, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in development for the treatment of ATTR amyloidosis with cardiomyopathy)
  • ETON +2.3% (acquires U.S. rights to Amglidia)
  • POET +1.5% (announces its intention to expand its optical engine production capacity in Malaysia)
  • GMED +1.4% (announces commercial launch of ExcelsiusHub navigation system)
  • NNDM +1.4% (Leading Proxy Advisory Firm Glass Lewis Recommends Nano Dimension Shareholders Vote "FOR" Both of Murchinson's Independent Director Nominees)
  • TXNM +1.3% (files application for new resources in 2028)
  • CVE +1.2% (announces redemption of Series 3 Preferred Shares)
  • NU +1.2% (receives approval to consolidate its operations under a single company)

Le Monde : Le luxe a perdu 50 millions de clients en deux ans

Le luxe a perdu 50 millions de clients en deux ans
Le recul du marché des produits de luxe devrait atteindre 2 % en 2024, d’après une étude réalisée par le cabinet Bain & Company, en partenariat avec l’association italienne Altagamma.

LVMH devra revoir sa stratégie. Tout comme Kering, Burberry et autres Chanel. Le marché mondial du luxe essuiera un recul de 1 % à 3 % en 2024, pour atteindre 1 500 milliards d’euros, selon l’étude Bain & Company, réalisée en partenariat avec Altagamma, association italienne des fabricants de luxe, et publiée, jeudi 14 novembre.

Le segment des articles de maroquinerie, prêt-à-porter, joaillerie et horlogerie, qui représente environ un quart de ce montant, devrait être en repli de 2 % sur un an, à taux de change constant. Initialement, Bain & Company tablait sur un tout autre scénario, avec une croissance comprise entre 0 % et 4 %. Mais le retournement du marché chinois du luxe, ressenti depuis la fin du deuxième trimestre, a obligé le cabinet à revoir ses prévisions. « Pour la première fois depuis la grande récession de 2008, en dehors de la période Covid, le marché va essuyer un ralentissement », souligne, dans un communiqué, Claudia D’Arpizio, associée de Bain & Company.

Erreurs de stratégie
A Milan, capitale du luxe italien, le cabinet de conseil international pointe les erreurs de stratégie commises par certains grands fabricants de luxe pour faire face au ralentissement de la demande aux Etats-Unis et en Chine, et compenser la baisse des volumes de ventes. Plusieurs ont eu recours à la « premiumisation » des gammes ; en clair, les fabricants ont augmenté les prix de leurs produits. En début d’année, Hermès a ainsi appliqué une hausse de prix de l’ordre de 9 %. Mais cette stratégie n’a pas été payante pour les marques plus abordables, dont l’italien Gucci, filiale du groupe Kering, et Burberry, figure britannique du luxe.

« Cette tendance (…) a débouché sur un rétrécissement de la base de clientèle », déplore Bain & Company, en chiffrant à 50 millions le nombre de clients perdus depuis 2022. Les prix stratosphériques pratiqués par les marques de maroquinerie (3 000 euros pour un sac Dior en coton, plus de 5 000 euros pour un fourre-tout Hermès, etc.) auraient rebuté les représentants de la génération Z, c’est-à-dire les moins de 35 ans, qu’elles étaient parvenues à conquérir, en particulier en Chine. Confrontés au chômage, ces derniers sont désormais plus économes. D’après une étude de Bain & Company, 40 % des clients du secteur du luxe jugent les prix pratiqués trop élevés. « Il est temps que les marques revoient leurs propositions », note Mme D’Arpizio.

Parmi les pistes de relance du secteur figure aussi la conquête de nouveaux territoires, en Amérique latine, en Inde, en Asie du Sud-Est et au Moyen-Orient, selon le cabinet de conseil. Les classes moyennes-supérieures susceptibles d’acheter des produits de luxe devraient y croître de « 50 millions de personnes d’ici à 2030 », calcule-t-il. D’ici là, grâce au « déploiement de politiques macroéconomiques », Bain & Company estime que le marché du luxe devrait bénéficier d’un contexte « légèrement plus favorable en 2025 ».

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • NVX +18.7%, EVTL +10.4%, QSI +7.7%, ORGO +5.2%, EQT +4.8%, UXIN +3%, NNDM +2.8%, CVE +1.5%, ENLC +1.3%, ORLY +1.2%, AZN +1%, RTX +0.8%, DNN +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • BTU -7%, CYH -1.9%, CPK -1.7%, BBIO -1.7%, LMT -1.2%, GMED -0.7%, NVS -0.5%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 25th of November 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* 3i Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 4,069 pence
* Alfa Laval Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Aroundtown Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Bachem Raised to Buy at Octavian; PT 86 Swiss francs
* Banco BPM Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 8.20 euros
* Barratt Redrow PLC Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 507 pence
* CrowdStrike PT Raised to $400 from $325 at Evercore ISI (+)
* Equinor Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 400 kroner
* Elastic Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $135
* JD Sports Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Liontrust Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 560 pence
* LWB PW Raised to Neutral-Short Term Sell at Santander Biuro Maklerskie (+)
* MicroStrategy PT Raised to $510 from $300 at Canaccord (+)
* Nordea Bank Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Reddit PT Raised to $175 from $120 at Jefferies (+)
* Robinhood Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $55
* Santander Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 5.90 euros
* Santander Brasil ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $6
* Siemens Energy PT Raised to 70 euros from 35 euros at Berenberg
* Snowflake Raised to Outperform at Wedbush; PT $190
* Vestas Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Weir Group PLC/The Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)

>>> Down
* Barrick Gold Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$30.75
* Beneteau Cut to Neutral at CIC; PT 8 euros (+
* CaixaBank Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 6.25 euros
* Dassault Aviation Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Hiscox PT Cut to 1,000 pence from 1,150 pence at Jefferies
* ING Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 17.50 euros
* Kone Cut to Underperform at RBC; PT 44 euros
* Orsted Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 445 kroner
* Thales Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* VGP Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)

>>> Initiation
* Canatu Rated New Buy at Bryan Garnier; PT 15 euros (+)
* Lundbergforetagen Rated New Sell at ABG; PT 493 kronor

>>> Call
* 3i Raised at Morgan Stanley, CVC Now Top Diversified Pick
* Kone Cut to Underperform at RBC on Downside Risks to Consensus
* Morgan Stanley Strategists Say Europe Financials Lead EPS Beats (+)
* Nordea, Santander Raised at Morgan Stanley, Now Among Top Picks
* RBC’s Calvasina Sees S&P 500 Rallying 11% Through End of 2025 (+)
* Mega Cap Outperformance Not Due to Passive Flows: Citigroup (+)

FT : Flows to European active funds buck trend to outpace passives

Flows to European active funds buck trend to outpace passives
October’s net sales for active equity and bond funds were higher than passive rivals for first time in 20 months

Flows into actively managed funds have outpaced those for their passive rivals for the first time in 20 months as asset managers attracted their largest product sales for almost three years.

Europe-domiciled active funds garnered €33.1bn of inflows in October, surpassing the €29.2bn won by passive funds, according to Morningstar data, excluding money market funds and funds of funds.

Active fund flows had lagged passive funds each month since March 2023. The last quarterly period of superior flows for active funds was in the last quarter of 2021.

The improvement reflected a pick-up in client demand for both bond and equity funds, according to the data.

Amin Rajan, chief executive of Create-Research, an asset management consultancy, said: “Active funds have been gaining ground as markets have been unusually volatile and creating unusual price anomalies, which active managers are better placed to harvest.”

Valerio Baselli, senior international editor at Morningstar, said the rise of active products “proves that there is still room for active managers, especially in some asset classes [such as] the bond universe”.


Active fixed-income funds attracted €34.1bn, while active equity funds had inflows of €3.4bn, marking their second positive monthly net sales of the year, Morningstar data showed.

Rajan said: “Fixed income has been less amenable to passive investing, where the required data on benchmarks and products are less widely available. Thus passives have made far less inroads into fixed income compared to equities.”

Baselli added that although exchange traded funds were “slowly gaining ground”, the fixed-income universe remained dominated by active asset managers as bond fund investors continued to “pick active funds over passive in most cases”.


But he said the figures did not suggest a sign of “a long-term recovery for active funds”, particularly in relation to the relatively low level of inflows to equity funds.

By contrast, Philip Kalus, managing director at Acolin Intelligence, an asset management consultancy, said the trend was not a “one-off” but a “continuation”, adding that he expected demand for active strategies to last.

He said the trend began in the first quarter of 2024 when active outflows “slowed significantly” and “picked up pace” in the second quarter.

“Most investors were largely on the sidelines in 2023 and started to get active again with more emphasis on potential alpha, less beta and in sectors which haven’t been much in favour in recent years,” said Kalus.

Nordea and BlackRock were among the best-selling active fund firms in October, with inflows to their active products totalling €6.3bn and €4.9bn, respectively, largely driven by demand for equity products.

Aegon and Pimco were the best-selling managers of active fixed-income products, with respective inflows of €3.3bn and €2.6bn to these funds.

Overall European mutual funds and ETFs gathered inflows of €62.3bn in October, up from €41bn in September, and the highest level since December 2021, Morningstar data showed.

Fixed-income funds continued to be the best-selling asset class overall, drawing in net flows of €41.5bn. Equity funds also saw improved sales, with inflows of €25.4bn in October.

By contrast, property funds experienced the largest outflows, totalling €2bn.

Abrdn was hardest hit, suffering net outflows of €2.5bn, followed by Aviva with €1.4bn and Baillie Gifford with €1.2bn.

BlackRock was the best-selling fund house overall in October, attracting net inflows of €14.3bn across active and passive products, followed by Nordea with €6.4bn.