Le Figaro : «Mon endettement est presque à zéro»: Arnaud Lagardère poursuit la v

«Mon endettement est presque à zéro»: Arnaud Lagardère poursuit la vente de ses actions à Vincent Bolloré

L’homme d’affaires, dont le groupe est entré l’an passé dans le giron de Vivendi, ne possède désormais plus que 5 % du capital de l’empire bâti par son père, et 4,49 % de ses droits de vote.

L’été 2024 est celui du grand délestage pour Arnaud Lagardère, l’unique hériter d’un empire passé à l’automne dernier sous le contrôle de Vivendi et de son actionnaire de référence, Vincent Bolloré. Depuis le mois de juin, la participation qu’il détient au capital du groupe fondé par son père a fondu de moitié, passant de 11,11 % à 5,12 % en date du 19 août. « J’ai vendu pour solder mon endettement, qui est presque à zéro, et sera bientôt à zéro », explique au Figaro Arnaud Lagardère. Ce dernier ne détient plus que 4,49 % des droits de vote du groupe qui porte son nom.

La mise en examen fin avril pour « abus de biens sociaux » du PDG, soupçonné par les enquêteurs du Parquet national financier d’avoir financé son train de vie luxueux avec l’argent de ses sociétés, a changé la donne pour l’homme d’affaires qui affirmait encore quelques mois auparavant vouloir repasser au-dessus de la barre des 15 % du capital.

8 millions d’actions cédées à Vivendi
Selon les documents de l’Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) que Le Figaro a pu consulter, Arnaud Lagardère a cédé depuis le 5 juin dernier à Vivendi, à travers son véhicule Arjil Commanditée-Arco et son holding personnel Lagardère Capital, près de 8,5 millions d’actions au prix unitaire de 24,10 euros. Vivendi a choisi de prolonger jusqu’à juin 2025 la période durant laquelle des actionnaires minoritaires comme Arnaud Lagardère ou Bernard Arnault peuvent apporter leurs titres à la branche subsidiaire de son offre publique d’achat.

Avec ces près de 205 millions d’euros encaissés en l’espace de quelques semaines, Arnaud Lagardère compte apurer ses dettes fiscales, qui s’élèveraient, selon Le Monde, à plusieurs dizaines de millions d’euros, auprès de l’État français. La vente de ces titres servira également au remboursement du crédit accordé à Lagardère Capital par le Crédit agricole il y a plus de quinze ans (contracté à l’époque pour racheter des actions de son groupe). Selon nos informations, il lui restait l’an passé environ 150 millions d’euros à rembourser à la banque française dirigée par Philippe Brassac.

À lire aussiJean-Christophe Thiery remplace à titre provisoire Arnaud Lagardère à la tête de son groupe

« Il vend au plus offrant et fait une bonne affaire d’un point de vue strictement financier, glisse un analyste. Pour ce qui est de son image, déjà bien écornée au sein des milieux d’affaires français, c’est une autre histoire… » À la Bourse de Paris, l’action de Lagardère s’échangeait autour de 22 euros, mardi après-midi, en hausse de 2 % sur les douze derniers mois.

«Je suis dans une position d’acheteur»
Désormais, une question taraude les observateurs de la saga Lagardère : débarrassé de ses dettes, Arnaud Lagardère finira-t-il par apporter le reste de ses titres à Vivendi pour tourner définitivement la page de l’aventure familiale ? « Je suis désormais à nouveau dans une position d’acheteur », assure-t-il aujourd’hui au Figaro.

Après une brève interdiction de gérer décidée par le juge dans la foulée de sa mise en examen, Arnaud Lagardère, qui avait fait appel de la décision, a retrouvé fin juin ses mandats opérationnels de PDG de Lagardère, de PDG de la filiale Hachette ainsi que sa casquette de gérant des radios Europe 1, Europe 2 et RFM. L’homme d’affaires n’a, en revanche, pas retrouvé les mandats sur ses holdings.

Les accords entre la famille Bolloré et Arnaud Lagardère prévoient que ce dernier, âgé de 63 ans, reste à la tête du groupe jusqu’à la fin de son mandat, en 2027. « Je souhaite rester PDG aussi longtemps que la famille Bolloré me fera confiance, leur limite sera la mienne », affirme Arnaud Lagardère, en attendant les prochaines étapes de la procédure judiciaire. Avec seulement 4,49 % des droits de vote, son pouvoir décisionnaire sur le sort de certains actifs de Lagardère, comme le travel retail (boutiques Relay dans les gares et les aéroports), qui aiguise les appétits en cette période faste pour le secteur, s’est en tout cas déjà considérablement réduit.

FT : Chris Morvillo: missing trial lawyer who helped Mike Lynch walk free

Chris Morvillo: missing trial lawyer who helped Mike Lynch walk free
Clifford Chance partner was aboard Autonomy founder’s yacht to celebrate courtroom victory

Clifford Chance litigator Christopher Morvillo wrote his first LinkedIn post in June, to celebrate the acquittal of his client Mike Lynch after a 12-year legal battle.

“I am so glad to be home”, Morvillo wrote, signing off: “And they all lived happily ever after . . . ”

That turned out to be one of the last posts he would write before a holiday to honour the stunning courtroom victory turned to disaster. In the early hours of Monday, the Lynch family’s luxury yacht Bayesian sank in severe weather off Sicily, leaving Morvillo, his wife, Neda, and Lynch among the six missing.

The 59-year-old Morvillo, a member of a renowned dynasty of New York litigators, and fellow Clifford Chance lawyer Ayla Ronald, who was rescued along with her partner, were gathered on the yacht to toast Lynch’s acquittal. For Morvillo, the trip capped more than a decade’s work helping to lead the defence of one of Silicon Valley’s biggest fraud cases.  

Morvillo’s role in the case began in 2012, when the former Autonomy chief executive was accused of falsely inflating revenues at the UK software company ahead of its $11bn sale to Hewlett-Packard in 2011. The long battle that ensued saw Lynch extradited to the US and subjected to house arrest under 24-hour surveillance ahead of the trial.

In a legal podcast released last week, Morvillo said he flew to London to meet Lynch on Thanksgiving weekend in 2012, assuming he would be gone for a week, then “spent a significant portion of the rest of my life bouncing back and forth between London and New York”.

The case has “covered one-third of my career”, he told the For the Defense podcast. “It has been a constant presence in my life for the last 12 years.”

Steptoe senior counsel Reid Weingarten, who worked in tandem for years with Morvillo as part of the entrepreneur’s phalanx of lawyers, told the Financial Times on Tuesday that he was “devastated and shocked” about the tragedy. He called him a “wonderful lawyer” who was “on top of the world” before the trip.

“When the Mike Lynch representation came to me, Clifford Chance was representing [Lynch] in England and I had to decide whether to use Clifford Chance on the American side for the criminal probe,” he added. “I sat down with Chris and immediately fell in love. The rest was history.

“Chris is like my brother, is a wonderful lawyer, and ‘wonderful lawyer’ is the least interesting thing about him,” added Weingarten, who credited the lawyer with the smooth running of the transatlantic co-operation on the case.

Morvillo cut his teeth as a federal prosecutor, working on cases related to the 9/11 attacks and securing the conviction of lawyer Lynne Stewart for assisting terrorism during his time as assistant US attorney for the Southern District of New York between 1999 and 2005.

He joined Clifford Chance after leaving the New York trial firm where he worked with his father, white-collar criminal defence attorney Robert Morvillo, renowned for defending Manhattan clients including Martha Stewart in her insider-trading case, and Hank Greenberg, the former AIG boss.

Chris and his brothers Greg, Scott and Robert worked together at Morvillo, Abramowitz, Grand, Iason, Anello & Bohrer, alongside their father, before his death. Weingarten said the brothers were a “New York Italian family and so fun to be around”.

Alongside his work on Lynch’s trial, Morvillo garnered acclaim in recent years for a precedent-setting defence of UK businessman Lawrence Hoskins, securing his acquittal on US bribery charges after an eight-and-a-half-year case ending in 2022.

Another “magic circle” lawyer who worked with Morvillo said: “As well as being brilliant at what he did — you have Autonomy but also the Hoskins case to show for that — he is the most incredibly friendly, collaborative colleague and partner that you could imagine.

“He’s funny, too. Everyone who has worked with him, and for him, we all love him.”

The families of Chris and Neda Morvillo said they remained hopeful for their safe return: “Chris and Neda are each known for their professional successes, Chris as a distinguished attorney and Neda as a skilled jewellery designer, but their true talent is that of mother and father, son and daughter, brother, sister, uncle, aunt and friends.”

On Tuesday Clifford Chance said it was “deeply saddened by this tragic incident”, adding: “Our utmost priority is providing support to [Morvillo’s] family as well as our colleague Ayla Ronald, who together with her partner, thankfully survived the incident.

Ronald, who grew up in New Zealand, was part of the Clifford Chance team advising Lynch. She was rescued from the Bayesian along with her partner, Matthew Fletcher.

Speaking to the Telegraph newspaper on Monday, her father, Lin Ronald, said his daughter had been “acting in some fashion as a co-ordinator with the medics”.

He added that his daughter — whose handle on X is aylathesailor — is a keen yachtswoman. “She was brought up on a yacht. I was a cruising sailor and she was almost born on a yacht in Cooktown in Australia. We just managed to get her mother off to hospital just moments before the birth.”

Her X profile currently reads: “Sitting, waiting, wishing”.

FT : Jonathan Bloomer: missing City executive who was key witness in Mike Lynch

Jonathan Bloomer: missing City executive who was key witness in Mike Lynch Lynch trial
Former Prudential chief was on board sunken yacht with British tech founder

Jonathan Bloomer, who is among the missing after a luxury yacht sank off the coast of Sicily, capped a long career as an accountant and insurance executive with an unusual star turn: defence witness in Mike Lynch’s San Francisco trial.

Lynch, who is also missing after the yacht Bayesian foundered in bad weather on Monday, was accused of fraud over the sale of his software company Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard for $11bn in 2011.

The 70-year-old Bloomer, who was named to Autonomy’s board as a non-executive in 2010, told the court in May that Lynch “wasn’t particularly interested in the finance side” and preferred to focus on strategy and products. A day later, Lynch took the stand himself and in June he was acquitted.

Bloomer and his wife, Judy, who is also missing, were among the guests invited to Lynch’s yacht to celebrate the victory.

Bloomer is best known for his time at the helm of FTSE 100 insurer Prudential, which he joined as finance director from accountancy firm Arthur Andersen in 1995. Within five years he had ascended to the top job.

Aviva chair George Culmer, who was Prudential’s financial controller, recalled a very smart executive who was always “gracious, charming, affable and fair”. “He always built very good teams,” said Culmer. “People were loyal to him. They would follow him.”

Bloomer’s time as Prudential chief executive was turbulent, coinciding with the dotcom crash and the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York. While he was credited with spearheading the group’s growth in Asia and bringing down costs, shareholders were dealt a number of disappointments that ultimately led to his exit after five years in the job. 

First came an unsuccessful multibillion-pound effort to buy US insurer American General and absorb it into the Pru’s US arm in 2002, which was heavily criticised by shareholders and knocked the company’s share price.

Then, in 2003, Bloomer cut the dividend for the first time since the first world war to shore up the company’s depleted capital, despite repeated assurances the group planned to keep raising the payout.

After the launch of a surprise £1bn rights issue in 2004 and despite previous support from Prudential chair David Clementi, he was ousted in a boardroom coup and replaced by Mark Tucker in 2005. 

“He was not a natural CEO,” said one former colleague. “He wasn’t ruthless enough. He was too trusting.”

After his decade at Prudential, Bloomer joined private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management as European partner, where he remained for six years until 2012. 

In the years that followed his exit from the Pru, Bloomer had a plural career, combining a clutch of non-executive roles that included the position as audit committee chair at Autonomy that would put him at the centre of a case in which it was alleged Lynch’s software company falsely inflated its revenues.

Bloomer told the court that he met Lynch at a conference in the early 2000s. Autonomy’s chairman, Robert Webb, approached him around 2010 looking for a board director who “understood the city” and could “think about the way Autonomy was seen” there.

HP argued that Autonomy used lossmaking hardware sales to make up shortfalls in its quarterly revenues. Big-ticket hardware sales would have been noted in Autonomy’s audit reports, which would have been reviewed by Bloomer as part of his boardroom role. 

During his testimony at trial, Bloomer explained that some of the accounting later flagged as suspicious by US prosecutors was acceptable under UK rules.

Associates described Bloomer as a man of humble background who found it easy to connect with colleagues and inspire loyalty, while also maintaining a certain distance.

“He didn’t like hierarchy or status,” said one senior insurance executive. “But he also liked to dress well in nice suits and he enjoyed the finer things in life.”

A physics graduate of Imperial College London, Bloomer founded a pension buyout business, Lucida, backed by Cerberus, which was sold to Legal & General in 2013.

The sailing and rugby enthusiast also served on the boards of several financial services companies, including legal services company DWF Group and Arrow Global, a European investment firm. 

Sir Nicholas Lyons, the former Lord Mayor who championed the Mansion House Compact to promote more productive investment, said Bloomer had been a keen advocate of the initiative. 

“He was very supportive of the agenda and of getting financial services back into the spotlight of the economy,” Lyons said.

Bloomer’s highest-profile recent roles have been at Morgan Stanley International, the UK-based arm of the Wall Street bank, where he has chaired the board since 2018, and London-listed insurer Hiscox, where he has served as non-executive chair since last year.

“We are deeply shocked and saddened by this tragedy. Our thoughts are with all those affected, in particular the Bloomer family, as we all wait for further news from this terrible situation,” a Morgan Stanley spokesperson said. 

Hiscox’s chief executive Aki Hussain said the company was “deeply shocked and saddened by this tragic event”. 

FT : Edgar Bronfman Jr raises $5.5bn to sweeten last-minute bid for Paramount Gl

Edgar Bronfman Jr raises $5.5bn to sweeten last-minute bid for Paramount Global
Billionaire investor secures funding to improve $4.3bn offer to media scion Shari Redstone

Edgar Bronfman Jr has raised up to $5.5bn to sweeten a last-minute offer for Paramount and gatecrash the Hollywood company’s agreed deal with Skydance Media, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The billionaire media investor made an initial $4.3bn bid on Monday night before Wednesday’s expiration of Paramount’s 45-day “go shop” period, according to four people with knowledge of the move and a copy of the offer letter seen by the Financial Times.

But the former Warner Music chief executive intends to improve those terms in the coming days after securing more commitments from a broad group of investors, two of those people said.

According to people close to the matter, Bronfman has secured commitments from investors including Fortress, which is controlled by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala investment arm.

Other backers include private equity group BC Partners Credit, film producer Steven Paul, crypto entrepreneur Brock Pierce and Nurali Aliyev, the tech entrepreneur and grandson of the autocratic former ruler of Kazakhstan, these people said.

Bronfman, Skydance, Fortress and BC Partners Credit declined to comment. Paramount, Paul, Pierce and Aliyev could not immediately be reached for comment.

Bronfman’s group is still pursuing further funding, one person familiar with the matter said.

The decision to take on foreign investment is likely to attract the attention of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US, the multi-agency body known as Cfius that vets deals for national security risks. Paramount owns CBS News, which has some potential restrictions related to foreign ownership.

In a letter to a special committee of Paramount directors on Monday, Bronfman’s investor group said its offer “represents a much more favourable outcome for Paramount stockholders and creates a far more viable public company than the Skydance deal”. 

“Our proposal eliminates the risks, uncertainties and costs of combining Paramount with Skydance,” the letter added. However, it did not explain how Bronfman’s group planned to address potential Cfius concerns.

It was also unclear how receptive the special committee, chaired by director Charles Phillips, would be to the new offer. Several people, including former and current board members, said that Phillips had in the past tried to torpedo Skydance’s deal.

Bronfman’s move is the latest twist in a long battle over the 98-year-old Paramount Pictures studio. The last big studio left in Los Angeles’ Hollywood district produced cinema classics such as The Godfather and Titanic.

Skydance, the film studio founded by billionaire David Ellison, had agreed to a deal with Paramount in July but had given the Hollywood group until August 21 to entertain a higher offer.

The Skydance deal offered more than $8bn to acquire Paramount. It said it would first pay $2.4bn to buy out Shari Redstone’s National Amusements, which controls 80 per cent of the votes at Paramount despite owning only about 10 per cent of the company through a special type of voting shares.


Following this, Skydance would combine with Paramount in a $4.5bn deal in which it would offer $15 a share to buy out up to half of the non-voting stock, and inject $1.5bn into Paramount’s balance sheet.

The initial Bronfman offer values NAI, the Redstone family holding company that has controlled Paramount since 1994, at $2.4bn including debt, the people said. NAI also declined to comment.

Bronfman, the 69-year-old heir to the Seagram spirits family that once controlled Universal Studios and PolyGram, also offered to match Skydance’s planned $1.5bn injection into Paramount and pay Ellison’s company $400mn to terminate its existing deal, they added. But his initial bid lacked any clear offer for Paramount’s non-voting shareholders.

But Bronfman is planning an improved bid that is likely to offer better terms for Paramount’s non-voting shareholders, according to people with direct knowledge of the talks.

Bronfman is being advised by Perella Weinberg Partners, UBS and Rockefeller Capital Management on the financial terms of the deal, according to the offer letter, while Skadden is providing legal advice.

Skydance, which is backed by US private equity group RedBird Capital and David Ellison’s father, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, is likely to argue that Bronfman’s bid leaves nothing for Paramount’s shareholders, while giving him full control.

Bronfman’s rebuttal is expected to be that his offer will dilute Paramount’s existing shareholders less than under Skydance’s proposal.

The Wall Street Journal first reported Bronfman’s $4.3bn offer on Tuesday.

FT : Machiavellian portrait of Mohammed bin Salman in new BBC documentary

Machiavellian portrait of Mohammed bin Salman in new BBC documentary
‘The Kingdom: The World’s Most Powerful Prince’ charts the rise of the formidable, controversial MBS

As the seventh child of the 25th son of the founder and first absolute monarch of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman was not destined for the throne when he entered politics as a 24-year-old in 2009. But in the past decade this peripheral scion of the ruling dynasty has established himself as a central, towering figure, both at home — where he has been de facto leader as crown prince since 2017 — and on the world stage.

A new two-part BBC documentary, The Kingdom: The World’s Most Powerful Prince, draws on the insights of biographers, journalists, diplomats, spies, confidants and dissidents to chart Prince Mohammed’s remarkable rise and to break down the multitude of facets of “MBS”.

The first episode, which traces the period leading up to Prince Mohammed’s appointment as heir apparent to his father, ailing head of state King Salman bin Abdulaziz, has the makings of a prestige drama with its plots, political manoeuvres and power struggles within the extended royal family. But the claim by exiled former official Saad al-Jabri that Prince Mohammed forged his father’s signature on a royal decree sanctioning military interventions in Yemen in 2015 is both revelatory and potentially deeply damaging. (The Saudi authorities did not respond to a request for comment about this allegation.)

The second episode discusses one of the darkest chapters of MBS’s rule — the brutal murder of the dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. While Prince Mohammed has repeatedly denied direct responsibility, with Riyadh blaming the killing on a rogue operation, the documentary considers why the international community, and the US in particular, has been hesitant in holding the Saudi regime to account over this and myriad other accusations of human rights abuse, press suppression and detentions.

But this show is more than a catalogue of controversies. Alongside chilling allegations are reflections on how Prince Mohammed has loosened the religious orthodoxy’s grip on the country, granted more rights to women, diversified the economy and brought world-leading sport and record-breaking art acquisitions to entertain locals, entice tourists and distract everyone from the more unsavoury aspects of the regime.

If across its two hours Kingdom paints a vivid portrait of a Machiavellian prince, it leaves us with a rather hazier image of who Prince Mohammed is outside of the public eye or political arena. If he was something of an unknown early in his career, the impression is that he is now unknowable, unpredictable — and all the more formidable for it.

Episode one available on BBC iPlayer now. Episode two airs on BBC2 on August 26 at 9pm

The Information : Bolt Near Deal to Raise $450 Million at $14 Billion Valuation

Bolt Near Deal to Raise $450 Million at $14 Billion Valuation

The Takeaway
• Founder Breslow to return as CEO
• New round would value it at $14 billion
• Existing investors have to increase investment

As startup founder comebacks go, this may rank as one of the most remarkable.

Bolt founder Ryan Breslow is returning as CEO to the embattled e-commerce startup, two and a half years after he stepped down. And he potentially comes with another $450 million: The company is finalizing a $450 million Series F funding round from investment firms in the United Arab Emirates and the U.K. that will value Bolt at $14 billion, up from its $11 billion round in 2022 and far higher than its valuation in a share buyback arranged by the company earlier this year.

Bolt couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

The new capital, detailed in a letter sent to Bolt investors by interim CEO Justin Grooms, comes with an expensive ultimatum for existing investors. They have to agree to buy into the new round in a proportion that is double their existing percentage stake. If not, their preferred shares automatically turn into common stock, losing preferences that typically give the investor more rights in a sale or public offering. And the company says it may buy back many of those shares for about a penny.

The aggressive demands on its investors add to the series of unusual funding moves, often driven by Breslow, that have roiled its shareholders over the years. It also comes five months after Bolt’s board forced out Maju Kuruvilla, the former Amazon executive who had succeeded Breslow in 2022. Kuruvilla was replaced by Justin Grooms, Bolt’s global head of sales, as interim CEO.

During the pandemic e-commerce boom, Bolt emerged as the best funded in a group of startups selling merchants software to enable the kind of ‘one-click checkout’ that made Amazon shopping so seamless.

Breslow, a young Stanford University dropout, proved a master fundraiser. He raised most of its nearly $1 billion in capital from firms in back-to-back rounds between 2020 and 2022 from investors including BlackRock and General Atlantic.

But attempts to raise even more, at a valuation of $14 billion, faltered as its business soured. Bolt earns the bulk of its revenue by taking a percentage of the transactions that go through its checkout software.

Over the next two years since the failed raise, Bolt’s revenue barely budged. In the first nine months of 2023, Bolt’s revenue totaled $19 million, essentially flat from the same period the year earlier, The Information reported earlier this year.

Since then, it’s gone through a series of board changes and disputes with its investors.

Earlier this year, it offered to buy shares back from investors at a valuation of $300 million, down roughly 97% from its late 2021 valuation.

The offer was masterminded by Breslow, who was seeking to regain control of the company, investor Activant Capital alleged. Breslow pushed for the buyback to retain his controlling stake in the company.

The Information : Arm Stock Is Pricier Than Nvidia’s. It Shouldn’t Be

Arm Stock Is Pricier Than Nvidia’s. It Shouldn’t Be

The Takeaway
Shares of chip design firm Arm have soared since its IPO to a valuation level higher than Nvidia’s, based on multiples of both revenue and profits. But Nvidia dominates the market for specialized chips used in AI whereas Arm has a more indirect AI business.

Since chip-design firm Arm Holdings went public last September, excitement around generative AI has sent its stock soaring, to a high last month of $188, more than triple its initial public offering price. While the stock has since fallen back a bit, investors are still valuing Arm at a big premium to Nvidia both on a multiple of future revenue and profits. That’s despite the fact that Nvidia dominates the market for specialized chips used in artificial intelligence.

The valuation gulf makes little sense. AI is a much smaller part of Arm’s business than of Nvidia’s. While Nvidia’s revenue soared 126% in its fiscal year ended January, Arm’s revenue rose 21% in its last fiscal year ended March.

There is a chance Arm’s revenue growth will accelerate based on AI features lifting smartphone sales, as well as other new businesses Arm has expanded into. Recent media reports also suggest Arm might be building its own AI chips to rival Nvidia’s, which has likely fueled Arm’s rally this year.

Even taking all that into account, Arm stock looks severely overvalued, trading at 33 times estimated next 12 months’ sales compared with 23 times for Nvidia, according to Koyfin data. AMD, a much more direct rival to Nvidia, is trading at just 8.5 times.

Investors might be better off getting exposure to Arm through buying stock in SoftBank, the Japanese technology investor that owns around 90% of Arm, according to senior partners Brett Simpson and Andrew Beale at Arete Research, an independent Wall Street firm.

Phones, Cars, Servers

Arm doesn’t make chips. Instead, it primarily creates blueprints for central processing units, the brain of computers. CPUs using Arm blueprints are in virtually every mobile phone as well as in cars, smart devices for the home and some data center servers. Arm’s customers—chipmakers and hardware producers such as Apple and Qualcomm—typically pay the company a licensing fee to use its designs, as well as a royalty fee for each chip they manufacture that incorporates Arm’s technology.

The company has lately talked up the potential of AI to boost its business. But it’s hard to tell exactly how much of Arm’s revenue is coming from AI, as its exposure is indirect. Arm doesn’t break down revenue growth from sales to different industries.

Investors are betting that the new AI features arriving on smartphones will lift Arm’s revenue. Those features—such as the Gemini assistant Google unveiled last week for Android phones—require more powerful chips.

Arm has renegotiated some of the licensing deals for its new v9 chip blueprints and has signed new ones, which carry royalty fees roughly twice as high as the previous generation’s, according to Arm executives.

Arm’s chief financial officer, Jason Child, told investors on a July call that phone makers’ upgrade to v9 helped the company lift its royalty revenue from smartphones 50% year over year in the latest fiscal quarter, even though sales of new phones barely grew.

Phone manufacturers are willing to pay up for the latest Arm technology because they want to invest in chips that “seem sustainable for the next several years” and that can potentially support the use of large language models on a mobile device, according to equity analyst John Vinh of KeyBanc.

But there’s no guarantee the AI features now being promoted on phones from upcoming iPhones to Google’s latest Pixels will be enough to spark a revival of the phone market. Smartphone sales have been flat for the past two years, as people are holding onto their devices for longer than in the past.

If the new AI services don’t spark the revival in sales that phone makers are banking on, Arm’s revenue won’t grow as much as investors seem to be expecting.

Arm’s future revenue growth could also be threatened if it loses a lawsuit it has filed against one of its customers, chip giant Qualcomm, Arete Research analysts say. Arm brought the suit arguing that Qualcomm improperly used some of Arm’s intellectual property. Qualcomm accounted for roughly 40% of Arm’s smartphone royalties in the most recent fiscal year.

Uneven Revenue

Another potential source of growth may come from Arm blueprints for chips used in data centers.

The graphics processing units made by Nvidia, which are needed to train and run AI models, have to be paired with CPUs in order to function. Nvidia sells a CPU called Grace, which uses Arm blueprints, alongside its GPUs, ensuring that Arm gets royalty revenue. That revenue should rise along with GPU sales.

Arm’s architecture also underpins CPUs such as Amazon’s Graviton, which can help generative AI models draw conclusions from data in a process known as inference. Arm only has about 15% of the market for chip designs used in cloud servers today—based on royalty payments—according to an investor presentation by the company last month.

Arete Research’s analysts reckon Arm’s market share will increase as companies such as Amazon, Microsoft and Google shift to developing more custom server chips similar to Amazon’s Graviton. But AMD, in particular, has also been moving aggressively to boost its position in the AI chip market for data centers. Indeed, it announced on Monday an acquisition of ZT Systems, which sells AI infrastructure for data centers. (Arm shares sold off on the ZT news, although they recovered within a few hours.)

That suggests investors shouldn’t bank too heavily on Arm lifting its share of the market.

To be sure, Arm’s revenue growth has accelerated in the past couple of quarters, jumping from 14% in the December quarter to 47% in the March quarter, then moderating slightly in the June period. And the company’s latest guidance indicates it expects to grow revenue by at least 20% this year and in each of the next two years, a projection many Wall Street analysts have adopted in their own estimates.

But Arm has a history of uneven revenue growth, which suggests investors should be wary of assuming steady expansion. While Arm’s top line jumped 21% in the year to March, revenue fell slightly in fiscal 2023, after it rose 33% in fiscal 2022.

Between 2015 and 2021, notably, Arm’s revenue grew only 35% from roughly $1.5 billion to just over $2 billion, judging by financial statements available from its time as a public company before SoftBank took it private and then public again more recently.

The Softbank Option

Arm’s deluxe valuation makes it less palatable even to investors who believe in its long-term prospects. And one reason for the high valuation is that the float of Arm shares—the number of shares available to trade—is extremely limited because SoftBank has retained around 90% of the stock.

That’s partly why the Arete analysts say buying SoftBank shares directly is a better way to get exposure to Arm’s business model, even taking into account the other assets and liabilities in Softbank’s portfolio. They estimate that SoftBank’s stake in Arm is receiving an implicit valuation of only $20 a share, less than half Arm’s IPO price, let alone its current stock price.

Getting exposure to Arm through SoftBank would also protect investors against the potential impact of SoftBank selling down its stake, which could put downward pressure on Arm shares.