>>> Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Albertsons (ACI) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $23
    • Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Accumulate from Neutral at Phillip Securities
    • Clearwater Paper (CLW) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $37
    • Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $60
    • Datadog (DDOG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $150
    • Ecolab (ECL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $310
    • Nestle (NSRGY) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts
    • ServiceNow (NOW) upgraded to Positive from Mixed at OTR Global
    • Tyra Biosciences (TYRA) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $31
    • Victory Capital (VCTR) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $60
  • Downgrades:
    • Boston Scientific (BSX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham
    • BrightSphere Investment Group (BSIG) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $26
    • Coherent (COHR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley Securities; tgt $86
    • Global-E Online (GLBE) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $40
    • Kennametal (KMT) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $26
    • Liberty Energy (LBRT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $19
    • Lilium N.V. (LILM) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt lowered to $1
    • Netflix (NFLX) downgraded to Neutral from Accumulate at Phillip Securities
    • Old Dominion (ODFL) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt lowered to $210
    • Texas Capital (TCBI) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $82
    • T-Mobile US (TMUS) downgraded to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; tgt raised to $236
    • Zeta Global (ZETA) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt $28
  • Others:
    • CF Industries (CF) initiated with a Neutral at Redburn Atlantic; tgt $77
    • ChoiceOne Financial Services (COFS) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson; tgt $37
    • Flowserve (FLS) resumed with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $65
    • Global Medical REIT (GMRE) initiated with a Buy at Berenberg; tgt $11.75
    • Kroger (KR) initiated with a Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $56
    • Neonode (NEON) initiated with a Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; tgt $16.50
    • Omega Health (OHI) initiated with a Buy at Berenberg; tgt $45
    • PureCycle Technologies (PCT) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $14
    • Rapport Therapeutics (RAPP) initiated with a Buy at JonesResearch, tgt $42
    • Tesco PLC (TSCDY) initiated with an Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas

>>> Procter & Gamble beats by $0.03, misses on revs; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance

Procter & Gamble beats by $0.03, misses on revs; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance, revs guidance (172.28)
  • Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $1.93 per share, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.90; revenues fell 0.6% year/year to $21.74 bln vs the $21.99 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Co reaffirms guidance for FY25, sees EPS of $6.91-7.05, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $6.96 FactSet Consensus; sees FY25 revs of +2-4% yr/yr to ~$85.7-87.4 bln vs. $86.13 bln FactSet Consensus.

>>> American Express beats by $0.20, reports revs in-line; raises FY24 EPS guida

American Express beats by $0.20, reports revs in-line; raises FY24 EPS guidance (285.78)
  • Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $3.49 per share, $0.20 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.29; revenues rose 8.2% year/year to $16.64 bln vs the $16.68 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Consolidated provisions for credit losses were $1.4 billion, compared with $1.2 billion a year ago. The increase reflected higher net write-offs driven by growth in loan balances, partially offset by a lower net reserve build year-over-year. The third-quarter net write-off rate was 1.9 percent, compared to 1.8 percent a year ago, and down from 2.1 percent in the prior quarter.
  • In the third quarter, total Card Member spending increased 6 percent, and card fee revenue growth accelerated to 18 percent. We continued to attract large numbers of new premium Card Members with 3.3 million new card acquisitions, while maintaining our high retention rates, excellent credit performance, and expense discipline.
  • Co issues upside guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $13.75-$14.05, excluding non-recurring items, up from prior guidance of $13.30-$13.80, vs. $13.62 FactSet Consensus. Continues to expect full-year revenue growth that is within the annual guidance range we provided in the beginning of the year, at around 9 percent.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • HEPS +82.3%, AURA +17%, CMTL +8.8%, SUPN +8.2%, ISRG +6.4%, NFLX +5.8%, BLCO +4.9%, GHI +4.1%, LEU +3%, OCFC +2.8%, MCB +2.4%, DCBO +2.2%, RF +2.2%, KSPI +1.5%, ROKU +1.2%, FLR +1.2%, LECO +1%, HBCP +1%
  • Gapping down:
    • MGPI -16%, FNB -5.7%, WAL -5.3%, TNYA -4.2%, BHC -3.1%, MSB -3.1%, VERI -3.1%, WDFC -1.9%, KNTK -1.8%, LOT -1.7%, NYCB -1.5%, MRTN -1.5%

WSJ : ECB’s Villeroy Says Risk of Undershooting Inflation Target Now as Great as

ECB’s Villeroy Says Risk of Undershooting Inflation Target Now as Great as Overshoot
The eurozone’s central bank Thursday lowered its key interest rate, marking the first back-to-back cut in borrowing costs since 2011

The risk that eurozone inflation will fall below the European Central Bank’s target is now as great as the risk that it will exceed it, the governor of the Bank of France said Friday.

The eurozone’s central bank Thursday lowered its key interest rate, marking the first back-to-back cut in borrowing costs since 2011 as the outlook for the economy weakens.

In a statement, François Villeroy de Galhau said that would not be the last rate cut.

“The risk of sustainably missing our target by going down now exists as much as that of exceeding it,” he said. “We should continue to reduce the restrictiveness of our monetary policy as appropriate.”

Villeroy said eurozone inflation is set to reach the ECB’s 2% target sustainable “earlier than expected in 2025” while there is no clear sign of a pickup in economic growth.

“The persistent moderation of private investment and consumption, with in particular the recent rise in household savings rates, justifies this new drop in interest rates,” he said.

The ECB has now lowered its key rate three times since June, and by a quarter of a percentage point in each of those steps. But Villeroy indicated that larger moves are possible.

“The pace must be one of agile pragmatism: in a highly uncertain international environment, we retain full optionality for our upcoming meetings,” he said.

WSJ : CVS Names David Joyner as New Chief Executive

CVS Names David Joyner as New Chief Executive
Joyner, who heads CVS’s pharmacy-benefit business, will succeed Karen Lynch

CVS Health CVS -2.08%decrease; red down pointing triangle is naming longtime executive David Joyner as its new chief, succeeding Karen Lynch at the helm of the struggling healthcare giant.

Joyner has been president of CVS Caremark, the company’s pharmacy-benefit manager, as well as an executive vice president of CVS. He is set to take over as president and chief executive on Friday.

Roger Farah, chairman of CVS’s board of directors, will also become executive chair.

CVS is making the changes after repeatedly cutting its forecasts for this year’s financial performance, moves that led to a 19% decline in its share price this year, a push for changes by a major hedge fund, and a board review of strategy that included the option of breaking up the company.

CVS is now planning to announce third-quarter results that will fall short of Wall Street expectations and to back away from its most recent full-year earnings projection for 2024, issued in August. A new downgrade would represent the fourth since the company’s investor day in December 2023.

Joyner and Farah said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that CVS will now move forward intact.

“We believe that we have a really important part to play in terms of simplifying and delivering a better healthcare experience for this country,” Joyner said. CVS’s assembled assets will allow it “to actually deliver on the promises that we’ve made, and now it’s all about execution.”

Joyner will face a difficult task. Not only must he turn around CVS’s Aetna health-insurance business, but he must also contend with Federal Trade Commission scrutiny of pharmacy benefit giants including Caremark. CVS also faces longstanding challenges in the retail pharmacy business.

Best known for its namesake pharmacies, CVS is one of the biggest healthcare companies in the U.S. Last year, it notched about $358 billion in revenue.

In addition to filling prescriptions at its drugstores, CVS furnishes health insurance through Aetna, treats patients at its senior-focused Oak Street clinics, and pays for drugs through its Caremark unit.

The company combined the disparate functions with the promise that it would smooth patients’ experiences, improve their healthcare and bring down costs.

But CVS has fallen short of its original goals for growth and transformation.

Especially problematic has been the company’s recent bet on Medicare health-insurance coverage. CVS’s Aetna expanded enrollment in its Medicare plans just as medical costs were rising and the federal government was changing rules around certain industry billing practices.

Aetna’s Medicare woes have been at the heart of CVS’s financial difficulties this year, including the expected issues with the third-quarter earnings. Other insurers have recently reported similar problems.

Joyner said he would focus closely on the performance of Aetna. He pointed to recently announced improvements in the insurer’s Medicare quality ratings, as well as efforts by CVS to roll out new payment models for its retail pharmacy and pharmacy-benefit businesses.

“The overall company performance is disappointing,” Farah said. “As the year began to unfold and we struggled to deliver on our one-year and three-year commitments, we really just came to the conclusion that it was time for a change.”

Joyner, 60, has worked at CVS or predecessor companies nearly his entire career, including an early stint at Aetna and then at Caremark before CVS acquired the pharmacy benefit manager, or PBM, in 2007.

After the combination, Joyner worked on the integration of Caremark and CVS, which he said helped equip him to help bring together CVS’s current units. He retired from CVS in 2019, returning last year to take over leadership of the PBM.

The board chose Joyner partly because his history at the company meant he could start having an impact immediately, Farah said. “It would be very difficult for an outside executive to have the expertise in all phases of health care,” he said.

Farah said the board voted unanimously for the management shift, though he said it was a difficult decision.

Lynch, 62, is a longtime managed-care executive who ran Aetna before becoming CEO of CVS in 2021. She helped preside over the company’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic and wrote a book on leadership.

Under her watch, CVS spent $10.6 billion on the Oak Street clinics business and an additional $8 billion on home-visits firm Signify Health, which focuses on Medicare.

CVS now expects its third-quarter earnings, set to be formally unveiled Nov. 6, to be in the range of 3 to 8 cents a share, or between $1.05 and $1.10 a share on an adjusted basis. Analysts had expected adjusted earnings per share of $1.69, according to FactSet.

The nonadjusted results will include a charge related to store closures and some cost-cutting moves the company is making. The results will also incorporate a charge to record premium deficiency reserves.

CVS will also report that medical costs are still running higher than expected, an issue that has come up in other insurers’ recent reports. Aetna’s medical loss ratio, or the share of premiums spent on healthcare costs, will be around 95.2%, compared with analysts’ expected 91.1%.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of October 2024 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Adidas Raised to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 238 euros
* Barry Callebaut Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Dowlais Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane (+)
* Econocom Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 2.40 euros
* Fiera Milano Raised to Buy at Equita; PT 5 euros (+)
* Geberit Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 598 Swiss francs
* Greencore Group Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Lindt & Spruengli Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Nestle Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 93 Swiss francs
* Netflix PT Raised to $780 from $625 at Bernstein (++)
* Netflix PT Raised to $925 from $900 at Pivotal (++)
* Nvidia PT Raised to $190 from $165 at BofA
* Raute Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 16 euros
* Schindler Raised to Neutral at BofA (+)

>>> Down
* ABB Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 52.58 Swiss francs (++)
* Anima Holding Cut to Accumulate at Banca Akros (++)
* Arjo Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 40 kronor
* Arjo Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 40 kronor (++)
* Bellway Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 3,160 pence
* Boohoo Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 35 pence (+)
* Bunzl Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 3,700 pence
* Cogelec SACA Cut to Hold at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 13.30 euros (+)
* Compass Group Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Crayon Group Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 135 kroner
* Danone downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley (++)
* Gjensidige Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 175 kroner
* Goodtech Cut to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 14 kroner
* INWIT Cut to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT 12.70 euros
* Netflix Cut to Neutral at Phillip Secs; PT $695 (++)
* Nokia Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 3.30 euros
* Outokumpu Cut to Accumulate at OP Corporate Bank; PT 3.60 euros (++)
* PowerCell Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 43 kronor
* Ralph Lauren Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $171
* Richemont Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 128 Swiss francs
* Royal Caribbean Cut to Hold at CFRA; PT $200
* Stratec Cut to Sell at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 31 euros (+)
* SUSS MicroTec Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 60 euros
* T-Mobile Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $236 (++)

>>> Initiation
* AA Tech Rated New Neutral at EnVent S.p.A.; PT 68 euro cents
* Ahold Delhaize Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 36 euros (++)
* Avolta AG Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank
* Carrefour Reinstated Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 15.50 euros (++)
* CF Industries Rated New Neutral at Redburn; PT $77
* Colruyt Reinstated Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 38 euros (++)
* Giglio Rated New Outperform at EnVent S.p.A.; PT 2.41 euros
* JDE Peet's Reinstated Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* J. Martins Reinstated Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 15 euros (++)
* OCI Rated New Neutral at Redburn; PT 15 euros
* Prysmian Rated New Buy at William O'Neil (++)
* Sainsbury Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 340 pence (++)
* Yara Reinstated Sell at Redburn; PT 250 kroner

>>> Call
* Dowlais Upgraded at BNPP Exane on Potential Business Sale (+)
* Lindt, Barry Callebaut Raised at MS as Futures Show Lower Cocoa (+)
* Barry Callebaut, Lindt Gain; Morgan Stanley Hikes Recommendation (++)
* Nestle Lifted to Outperform at RBC on Encouraging CEO Comments (+)
* Northern Data Rises; Baader Says Reaffirmed Guidance a Positive
* Nvidia Target Hiked to $190 at BofA on Confidence in AI Lead
* Richemont Cut to Neutral at Goldman on Tough Macro Backdrop (++)
* SUSS MicroTec Plunges; Stifel Downgrades After ASML Outlook Cut (++)