>>> Grifols, S.A.: Mason Capital Management LLC sent a letter to the Grifols Boa

Grifols, S.A.: Mason Capital Management LLC sent a letter to the Grifols Board of Directors (9.50)
  • Mason Capital Management LLC, a registered investment advisor to funds and accounts holding approximately 2.1% of Grifols S.A. (GRFS).
  • Sends letter to Board detailing Board's conflicts of interest and history of poor capital allocation.
  • Expresses urgent need for independent Directors and proper oversight to unlock value.
  • Believes rumored Brookfield transaction substantially undervalues Grifols.

WSJ : Trump to Renew ‘Maximum Pressure’ Campaign Against Iran

Trump to Renew ‘Maximum Pressure’ Campaign Against Iran
Ties with Tehran, which sought to assassinate president-elect and other former U.S. officials, are likely to be even worse this time around

President-elect Donald Trump plans to drastically increase sanctions on Iran and throttle its oil sales as part of an aggressive strategy to undercut Tehran’s support of violent Mideast proxies and its nuclear program, according to people briefed on his early plans.

Trump took a dim view of Iran during his first term, aborting a six-nation agreement with Tehran—known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—that sought to curb Iran’s nuclear-weapons work. He also imposed what was described as a “maximum pressure” strategy in hopes Iran would abandon ambitions for a nuclear weapon, stop funding and training what the U.S. considers terrorist groups and improve its human-rights record.

But when he takes office on Jan. 20, Trump’s approach to Iran is likely to be colored by the knowledge that its agents tried to assassinate him and former top national-security aides, former Trump officials said. The FBI thwarted an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump before he was re-elected president, the Justice Department said in a case unsealed Friday.

An Iranian operative told law enforcement that an official in Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard directed him in September to put together a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump, federal prosecutors in Manhattan said in the criminal complaint.

“People tend to take that stuff personally,” said Mick Mulroy, a top Pentagon official for the Mideast in Trump’s first term. “If he’s going to be hawkish on any particular country, designated major adversaries, it’s Iran.”

The people briefed on Trump’s plans and in touch with his top advisers said the new team would move rapidly to try to choke off Iran’s oil income, including going after foreign ports and traders who handle Iranian oil. That would re-create the strategy that the former president adopted in his first term, with mixed results.

“I think you are going to see the sanctions go back on, you are going to see much more, both diplomatically and financially, they are trying to isolate Iran,” a former White House official said. “I think the perception is that Iran is definitely in a position of weakness right now, and now is an opportunity to exploit that weakness.”

The officials familiar with Trump’s plan didn’t provide details of how precisely he would increase the pressure on Iran.

Israel in recent months has killed the leaders of Iranian proxies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and damaged much of the groups’ command structure. It launched strikes inside Iran, in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack on Israel, that severely damaged Tehran’s missile-production capabilities and air defenses.

Iran has vowed to respond to the Oct. 26 Israeli attack, but it is unclear whether Trump’s election victory this week will change Tehran’s calculus or timing.

Brian Hook, who oversaw Iran policy at the State Department in Trump’s first term and is now in charge of the Trump transition for the department, said Thursday that the president-elect had “no interest” in seeking to overthrow Iran’s rulers.

But Hook, in an interview with CNN, noted that Trump has pledged to “isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically so they can’t fund all of the violence” perpetrated by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and other proxies in Iraq and Syria.

Hook is widely expected to receive a top national security job in Trump’s second term. During the first term, he championed the maximum-pressure campaign to squeeze Iran. Advocates say it reduced the funds available to Tehran’s security services. But it failed to halt Iran’s operations via its proxies or its nuclear work.

ran’s oil exports surged last year amid quiet negotiations to free Americans detained by the regime, leading Republicans to accuse the administration of not fully enforcing the current oil sanctions, which the White House has denied.

Trump had reimposed a full embargo on Iran’s crude exports in 2019, and its shipments collapsed to 250,000 barrels a day by early 2020—substantially less than their level two years earlier. But after Biden took office, they reached a six-year high in September this year.

Once back in the White House, Trump could face the same dilemma that Biden did in curbing oil sales by Iran and other adversaries such as Venezuela—the risk that oil prices could rise and spark inflation.

Robert McNally, a former U.S. energy official, said the Trump administration could impose U.S. bans on Chinese ports that receive Iranian oil and also sanctions targeting Iraqi officials that fund Iran-backed militias. Even expectations of an aggressive enforcement of the oil embargo would be enough to cut at least 500,000 barrels a day in mostly Chinese oil purchases, he said.

“It’s going to be maximum pressure 2.0,” said McNally, who now heads Washington, D.C.-based consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.

Helima Croft, the chief commodities strategist at Canadian broker RBC Capital Markets, said Trump’s senior advisers have expressed strong support for an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear and energy facilities. Another person in touch with Trump’s team said the new president might be less inclined to oppose such a move by Israel.

Biden sought and received Israeli assurances before its Oct. 26 Iran strike that it wouldn’t hit nuclear sites or energy infrastructure, which the U.S. feared would raise oil prices and lead to a wider regional escalation.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said late Wednesday the result of the U.S. election didn’t matter to his country. “To us, it does not matter at all who has won the American election, because our country and system relies on its inner strength,” Pezeshkian was quoted as saying by state news agency IRNA.

Yet Iranian officials are divided over whether the Islamic Republic can resist added economic pressure. “The situation may become catastrophic for Iran’s oil industry,” said an Iranian oil official. He said China is already buying the country’s crude at a discount while Iran is suffering from natural-gas shortages—used for heating and industry—due to years of underinvestment.

But an Iranian diplomat said Tehran would offset the U.S. restrictions by deepening its trade partnerships through the Asia-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and other alliances. It could also respond to the pressure by stepping up its nuclear program or threatening oil facilities in the Middle East, he said.

Despite the mutual hostility, some who worked for Trump don’t rule out an eventual U.S.-Iran diplomatic deal in his second term. Trump likes to make deals, Mulroy said, but only “if it’s his deal.”

(ZH) Trump Presidency: Quick Thoughts On Market Impact

Trump Presidency: Quick Thoughts On Market Impact

The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and geopolitical events.
Here are some quick thoughts about what we at RIA Advisors think about the stock and bond markets in 2025.

Stock Markets
Upside Potential: During the Trump presidency, he will focus on ensuring the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, passed in 2017, does not sunset in 2025, which will keep corporate tax rates at 21%. However, it is not unlikely that he will also push for a new corporate tax cut bill at a lower rate, nearer 15%, which was his original goal during his first term. While maintaining the corporate tax rate at 21% will help corporations maintain current profitability, a lower rate would benefit certain sectors like consumer discretionary and technology, where earnings are especially sensitive to tax changes. Financial stocks could also benefit from Trump’s history of deregulation, potentially leading to more mergers and investment opportunities. In fact, during his first term, the S&P 500 rose nearly 70%, partly due to those pro-business policies​.
Technically, the market remains on solid bullish underpinnings with very high levels of expected earnings growth heading into 2025. The bullish trend remains intact, and as discussed, the seasonally strong period of the year has started. Notably, corporate share buybacks and year-end performance chasing will support the last two months of the year.
“According to Morningstar, during the first half of 2024, only18.2% of actively managed mutual and exchange-traded funds outperformed the cap-weighted S&P 500 index. There are several reasons for this, including the lack of allocation to the ‘Magnificent 7,’ dispersion in returns of holdings, and lack of allocation to non-traditional assets.
However, there are risks.

It’s Not All Roses
Downside Risks: It’s not all rosy. A Trump presidency also brings risk from protectionist trade policies, including higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Those tariffs can potentially disrupt supply chains and increase costs for consumers and companies. Furthermore, if there are deep cuts to Government employment or spending, such would also slow economic growth more than expected and could offset the benefit of the extension of tax cuts. However, while those risks are present, the most significant risk is a reversion of economic growth, negatively impacting corporate profitability. The risk of investor disappointment is elevated with corporate profits already significantly deviated from long-term means.
Bottom Line: Stocks might see an initial jump on business-friendly promises but could face challenges if tariffs or unpredictable governance introduce economic shocks that suppress corporate profitability.

Bond Markets
Reasons for Caution: The bond market sold off sharply following the announcement of a Trump presidency. Such was not unsurprising, as bonds typically react negatively to narratives that might lead to higher inflation and rising interest rates. The initial knee-jerk reaction in the bond market was the assumption that the administration would emphasize deficit-financed spending on infrastructure or defense. Such spending would certainly lead to stronger economic growth and higher wages, which would sustain a higher level of inflation than witnessed from 2008 to 2020. The Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates to align with stronger economic growth if stronger growth occurs. In such an environment, bond prices would fall to accommodate higher economic activity. Such an outcome would stabilize bond prices at a higher “terminal rate,” reducing the potential upside in owning bonds.
As discussed in “Rates Are Going Much Higher?” there is an important correlation between wages, economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. To wit:
“If we create a composite index of wages (which provides consumer purchasing power, aka demand), economic growth (the result of production and consumption), and inflation (the byproduct of increased demand from rising economic activity). We then compare that composite index to interest rates. Unsurprisingly, there is a high correlation between economic activity, inflation, and interest rates as rates respond to the drivers of inflation.”
Therefore, the bond market has a right to be concerned if a Trump presidency can foster a sustained level of higher economic growth and increased wages, creating a comparative inflation level. Such inflation would raise yields to align with those variables.
However, such will likely be harder to do than many think.

It’s The Economy
Potential Silver Linings: On the flip side, a Trump presidency must deal with high debt levels and a large fiscal deficit. Increases in the national debt were squandered on non-productive investments, and rising debt service results in a negative return on investment. Therefore, the larger the debt balance, the more economically destructive it is bydiverting increasing amounts of dollars from productive assets to debt service. As interest rates increase, more federal tax revenue is diverted into servicing the national debt.
While many expect that Trump’s policies will lead to inflationary pressures, what should be evident is that increases in debt and deficits continue to divert more tax dollars away from productive investments into the service of debt and social welfare. The result is lower, not higher, economic growth, inflation, and, ultimately, interest rates.
When put into perspective, one can understand the more significant problem plaguing economic growth. A long look at history clearly shows the negative impact of debt on economic growth.
Furthermore, changes in structural employment, demographics, and deflationary pressures derived from changes in productivity will magnify these problems. Trump or any other president cannot effectively resolve those particular issues.

Overall Takeaway
Under a Trump presidency, the outlook for the stock and bond markets presents a blend of opportunities and challenges. The outcomes for both are heavily dependent on which policies become realities.
The one big concern for us at RIA Advisors continues to be a market that has enjoyed outsized returns over the past two years and deviates from long-term means. With the markets being overbought monthly and trading at the top of its long-term trend channel, expectations of further market upside seem overly confident without some correction first. Since 2009, the market has retested the 4-year moving average numerous times. Such is a normal and healthy process for an ongoing bull market, and a mean reversion should be expected at some point in the future. However, such an event isn’t likely between now and year-end.
Furthermore, market predictions hinge on the balance between growth and inflation. While Trump has many policies on his wish list, those policies must be passed by a heavily bipartisan Congress. With only slim majorities to work with, there is a risk of defection on some bills, particularly by the “Freedom Caucus,” which would oppose large deficit spending bills.
Lastly, stocks could rally on tax cuts but might stumble if tariffs weigh heavily on global trade. Bonds could indeed face headwinds, but the “3-Ds” of debts, deficits, and demographics will continue to plague economic growth. While there was an initial surge in stocks and a sell-off in bonds on the announcement of a Trump presidency, there is still a very long road ahead that investors must navigate. Fed policy, economics, earnings and corporate profitability all pose risk to longer-term outlooks.
Investors should stay informed and consider a diversified approach, as the next presidency promises to bring both opportunities and risks across asset classes.

WSJ : A French Shopping-Center Heir Asks $33 Million for Miami Beach Mansion

A French Shopping-Center Heir Asks $33 Million for Miami Beach Mansion
Nicolas Chambon demolished an older home on the Venetian Islands property and built a roughly 6,000-square-foot modern residence in its place

When French shopping-center heir Nicolas Chambon set out to build a waterfront house in Miami Beach, Fla., six years ago, he paid particular attention to the rooftop terrace. When such spaces have “turf and no shade,” he said, “you don’t want to go.”

Instead, Chambon planted a dozen mature trees and other plants on his 3,000-square-foot rooftop, adding a pergola and dining and seating areas for enjoying sunset views. “For me, it’s the best place in the home to go have a drink,” he said.

Now, planning to spend more time in Europe than he expected, Chambon is listing the Venetian Islands home for $33 million.

Chambon is president of the France-based commercial real-estate firm Socri. He is also a partner in two franchise locations of Galeries Lafayette, the famed Parisian department store.

He fell in love with Miami during a visit for New Year’s Eve in 2018, he said, and paid $5.85 million that year for a ¼-acre property with 60 feet of frontage on Biscayne Bay. After razing an older home, he spent six years designing and building a roughly 6,000-square-foot modern residence, planning to live there permanently.

To bring a European sensibility to the home, Chambon enlisted French architects and designers to work with a local team. “We made the most of the square footage,” he said. “That’s what we do in Europe because we don’t have the space.”

The residence has five bedroom suites, each with its own terrace, en suite bath and walk-in closet. The 1,400-square-foot primary suite has two walk-in closets and two bathrooms. The house also has a wood-and-glass elevator, a home theater and an office.

Chambon said his design team spent a lot of time working on the floor plan to make it as efficient as possible, and used a lot of light wood and glass to keep things airy. He said 70% of the home’s facade is glass. “What I noticed here in Miami is everything goes fast,” he said. “I really wanted to make it beautiful and not rush.”

A focal point of the property is the landscaping. Chambon worked with a European landscape architect and planted dozens of full-height trees for privacy. Outside, there is an 80-foot infinity-edge pool and a hot tub facing the bay. A water feature contains a sculpture by the artist Jean Martin.

Chambon said putting full-height trees on the roof was challenging. “We have very big planters because they need soil,” he said. The trees are secured by cables affixed to the structure of the house.

Chambon declined to say how much he spent on design and construction, but said he didn’t cut corners because he intended to live there. When the house was completed recently, however, Chambon never moved in. “For now, I have too much on my plate in Europe,” he said. “There will be more houses. Maybe I can keep the next one for me. That’s the plan.”

Listing agent Dina Goldentayer of Douglas Elliman said the Venetian Islands aren’t known for large homes, but Chambon’s residence, with multiple terraces and a rooftop lounge, has estate-like qualities.

Prices in the Venetian Islands have been strong, with several home sales over $30 million. Overall, Miami’s luxury market didn’t have the pre-election jitters experienced in other places, Goldentayer said, citing a recent $72 million sale on North Bay Road in Miami Beach. “The sentiment has been that Florida is going to continue to rock ’n’ roll,” she said.

FT : Donald Trump eyes Doug Burgum as new ‘energy tsar’ to slash regulations

Donald Trump eyes Doug Burgum as new ‘energy tsar’ to slash regulations
Role would have sweeping power over environmental agencies and rules in an attempt to boost fossil fuels

Donald Trump is considering tapping North Dakota’s Doug Burgum to be his new “energy tsar”, which would give the oil state’s governor sweeping power to slash environmental regulations and boost US fossil fuels output.

Burgum, a billionaire businessman who ran in the Republican primary race this year before endorsing Trump, is the president-elect’s preferred candidate for the role, said people familiar with the discussions. Former energy secretary Dan Brouillette is also a contender.

Trump is weighing the reappointment of officials from his first term to senior energy roles as he looks to battle-hardened veterans to overhaul rules on everything from vehicle emissions to oil and gas leasing.

The new energy tsar role and its powers are not yet finalised, but people familiar with the plans said it would co-ordinate Trump’s deregulatory agenda across a patchwork of agencies including the Department of Energy, Department of Interior, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and Environmental Protection Agency.

The energy tsar role would likely replace the “climate tsar” — or National Climate Advisor — established by Joe Biden’s White House, underlining the stark shift in emphasis by the new administration.

Among other Trump administration veterans being considered for a return to Washington are former interior secretary David Bernhardt and former EPA administrator Andrew Wheeler, said people familiar with the thinking of Trump’s transition team.

In a sign Trump is prioritising experience in his second term, Brouillette, Bernhardt and Wheeler are all seen as contenders to return to their previous positions.

Wheeler declined to comment. The other candidates did not respond to requests for comment. Karoline Leavitt, spokesperson for the Trump-Vance transition team said the president-elect would make cabinet decisions “soon” and the appointments "will be announced when they are made”.

The president-elect has vowed to gut at least 10 regulations across the federal government for every new one created and said he would appoint Tesla chief executive Elon Musk to helm a new efficiency commission “tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government and making recommendations for drastic reforms”.

Rules governing climate and energy are set to bear the brunt of the regulatory bonfire.

Trump has railed against the EPA’s car emissions rules, calling them “the insane electric vehicle mandate”, and is also likely to remove curbs on oil and gas drilling on federal lands.

Cynthia Lummis, US senator for Wyoming, and Katherine MacGregor, former deputy secretary of the interior, are both also seen as candidates to lead the interior department. Paul Dabbar, a tech executive and former DoE official, is also seen as a contender for energy secretary.

Lumis, McGregor and Dabbar also did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the roles, but a spokesperson for the senator said she would work to help Trump roll back Biden’s “egregious public lands policies”.

Burgum was previously considered a top contender to be Trump’s vice-president and was with Trump at his final rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Monday and on election night at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

Brouillette last week stepped down as head of the Edison Electric Institute, the leading US utility lobby group “to broaden my focus to the overarching issues facing our global energy landscape”.

FT : Tiger-backed French fintech Qonto seeks €5bn valuation in share sale

Tiger-backed French fintech Qonto seeks €5bn valuation in share sale
Neobank in talks with investors about selling €200mn in existing shares amid weak IPO market

French fintech Qonto is talking to investors about a sale of existing shares that could value it at €5bn, the latest of such deals as companies seek to reward employees and early backers in the face of a weak market for listings.

The neobank has been exploring selling at least €200mn in stock held by employees and early investors and has held discussions with several funds, according to people familiar with the matter.

Qonto, already one of France’s most valuable technology companies, is seeking a valuation of about €5bn, the people said. But they cautioned that no price had been set yet, and said it was unclear if any agreement would be reached. 

Qonto was last valued at €4.4bn during a 2022 funding round in which it raised €486mn from investors including Tiger Global, TCV and Tencent. The company declined to comment on the latest share offering.

The sale would make Qonto the latest fintech company to turn to the secondary market at a time when exits for founders and investors are difficult because the IPO market remains tepid.

A successful deal would make Qonto one of the few European fintechs to increase their valuation in recent years after higher interest rates and shifting investor sentiment battered the sector, ending a period of hypergrowth that had pushed fundraising levels to a record in 2021.

Revolut, Europe’s largest tech company, in August closed a $500mn sale of employees shares, with its value growing from $33bn to $45bn. Other UK fintechs Monzo and GoCardless are also targeting similar deals.

David Sainteff, partner at Global Founders Capital, said several European fintechs were well-positioned for secondary sales because they had reached a more mature stage, had developed scale and lenders were benefiting from higher rates.

“Since 2021, many early employees have recognised that opportunities for liquidity events may be limited and IPOs postponed,” Sainteff said. “We’re likely to see more and more employee share sales at successful companies, as these firms will need to attract, retain and motivate top talent.”

Qonto was founded in 2016 by entrepreneurs Alexandre Prot and Steve Anavi with the aim of providing better financial services to other entrepreneurs.

It provides a suite of services including invoice management for more than 500,000 small and medium companies in France, Spain, Italy and Germany. The fintech does not have a banking licence but provides credit through partnerships with other institutions.

Qonto’s growth has been fuelled by entrepreneurs, sole traders and small companies, but it has in recent years sought to attract bigger clients, as well as offering software services.

The group has also embarked on a European expansion, announcing earlier this year that it would launch in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal.