>>> What to look at today - 10th of March 2025

Equities and Treasury yields fell on Monday as concerns about the health of the US economy weighed on investors’ appetite for risk.
A gauge of Asian shares dropped as equity futures contracts for the S&P 500 declined 0.4% and those for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also fell. Treasury yields slipped across maturities as investors sought the safety of fixed income assets.  The shift toward havens lifted both the yen and the Swiss franc, while a gauge of the dollar held just shy of its lowest since November as confidence in further US economic outperformance faltered. Gold inched up, while oil fell to near the lowest since September as weak economic data from China compounded a dour outlook for demand. Tariffs on major trading partners, a higher unemployment rate and federal workforce job cuts are raising the prospect of a slowdown in growth in the world’s largest economy after outperforming China and Europe for months. Bond traders are signaling an increasing risk that the US economy will stall, while President Donald Trump said the economy faces “a period of transition.” Traders have been piling into short-dated Treasuries, pulling the two-year yield down sharply since mid-February, on expectations the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates as soon as May to keep the economy from deteriorating. The movement marks an abrupt about-face for the Treasuries market, where the dominant driver of the last few years had been the surprising resilience of the US economy even as growth weakened overseas. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said growing uncertainty among businesses could slow demand in the US economy but doesn’t require a change in interest rates. Fed Chair Powell also acknowledged a rise in uncertainty for the US economic outlook on Friday. Furthermore, he expected the path to 2% inflation to continue, suggesting price hikes from tariffs may be temporary.  Wall Street strategists have been debating whether the Trump administration would be swayed on its tariff plans as stocks tumble. The thinking being that Trump will ditch policies if the stock market — which he touts as a report card — drops and rattles investors. Various firms even mapped out how much pain Trump could tolerate in the S&P 500 Index before retreating. That index level became known as “the Trump put,” in reference to a put option. European share markets and the common currency got a fillip from Germany moving away from fiscal austerity and the region ramping up military defenses. Euro Stoxx 50 futures pointed to a higher open on Monday.  US job growth steadied last month, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 151,000 in February after a downward revision to the prior month, data on Friday showed. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.1%. Tariffs and Trump’s policies have started having their “fair share of pressures on the equity markets, plus we have now started seeing a lot of concerns around US growth,” Rupal Agarwal, Asia quantitative strategist at Sanford C. Bernstein, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “There are expectations that inflationary pressure could again start creeping up. So I would say too soon to use the R-word, but definitely heading toward stagflation,” she said referring to recession. In Asia, China’s consumer inflation dropped far more than expected to fall below zero for the first time in 13 months as deflationary pressures persisted in the economy. Investors will now be looking for signs that the government’s stimulus is translating into stronger domestic demand. A gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong tumbled 2.4% and an index of Chinese technology shares dropped 3%. Separately, China said it will impose retaliatory tariffs on imports of rapeseed oil, pork and seafood from Canada as the trade war escalated. Canola slid by the exchange limit.  In Canada, Mark Carney won the race to become the country’s next prime minister.

Nikkei +0.38% Hang Seng -1.59% CSI -0.34% Shanghai -0.17% Shenzen +0.06%

Eur$ 1.0830 CNH 7.2624 CNY 7.2590 JPY 147.74 GBP 1.2910 CHF 0.8790 RUB 90.0000 TRY 36.5190 WTI$ 66.62 -0.64% Gold 2,910 +0.03% BTC 82,540 -0.65% ETH 2,069.50 +1%

S&P -0.48% Nasdaq -0.59% EuroStoxx +0.64% FTSE +0.28% Dax +0.70% SMI +0.23%

Macro :
- Iran Says Open to Talks on Nuclear ‘Militarization’ Concerns
- China’s Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Products Take Effect
- Oil’s Bearish Lurch Has Speculators Betting Worse Is Yet to Come
- Millennium Loses $900 Million on Strategy Roiled by Market Chaos
- Trump Keeps Pressure on Ukraine as Putin Seen Open to Ceasefire
- Winklevoss Twins’ Gemini Is Said to File Confidentially for IPO
- Greece Raised to BBB From BBB (Low) by DBRS, Outlook Stable
- Trump Wants Stablecoin Legislation Before August Recess
- Growth to Value Sees Largest Rotation Since ‘22: Equity Insight
- Chemicals, Steel Firms in Europe Squeezed by China, Tariff Woes
- UK pension funds stand by defence exclusion in ‘ethical’ funds
- Italy Mulls Expanding Army by 40,000 Soldiers, Papers Say

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Qatar Airways CEO Says Growth Will Slow After Next Big Order: FT
- GOOGL US : Google Can Keep Anthropic AI Investment Under Antitrust Proposal
- IF IM : Banca Ifis Gets Competition Authority Clearance for Illimity Bid
- BA US : BA: Boeing to face shareholder class action following MAX 9 blowout, Reuters says
- BMY US : Bristol Myers’ Phase 3 Trial Shows Sotyktu Superior Vs. Placebo
- CTSH US : Activist Mantle Ridge Builds Over $1 Billion Stake in Cognizant -- WSJ
- ATD CN : Seven & i Says In Talks With Couche-Tard, Rebuffing Key Investor
- EIX US : Edison CEO Says Tariffs Risk Raising Electric Rates
- ENX FP : Euronext Feb. Total Cash Market Transaction Value M/M +11%
- GET FP : Virgin Group looks to raise £700mn to fund Eurostar rival, Richard Branson’s group is one of several planning a new cross-Channel service - FT
- HIK LN : Hikma races to launch generic versions of blockbuster obesity drugs, Pharma group looks to take advantage as Wegovy and Ozempic start to go off patent next year - FT
- HMHC US : Veritas Said Planning Cambium, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Merger
- HYQ GY : Hypoport FY Ebit EU17.9M
- IDIA SW : Idorsia: le groupe Clozel/Levine et autres détiennent une part de 20,447%
- 3382 JP : Shareholder Pushes Seven & i to Engage With Couche-Tard
- Kraken IPO : Crypto Exchange Kraken Said to Prepare for IPO in 2026
- LEG GY : LEG Immobilien FY Dividend per Share Beats Estimates
- LDO IM : Leonardo Said to Drop BofA for Deutsche Bank on European Space
- LHA GY : German Airports Face Disruption Monday From Labor Union Strike
- MANTA FH : Safra Sarasin Agrees to Buy Majority Stake in Saxo Bank
- MLYS US : Mineralys Shares Jump After Plan to Release Clinical Data Monday
- NCCB SS : NCC Sells Public Properties Project in Finland for SEK900m
- NESN SW : Jennifer Garner’s Baby Food Firm Weighs IPO as Soon as This Year
- NORVA SS : Apax Funds Make SEK36.50/Shr Recommended Cash Offer for Norva24
- ORCL US : Oracle to Show Impact From Stargate Project: Preview
- PLTR US : Palantir, Intuitive Surgical, ServiceNow to Join S&P 100
- P911 GY : Porsche SE Sees FY Loss About EU1.5b Over Investments Impairment
- RIO LN : Rio Tinto Is Said to Scrap Plans for Up to $5 Billion Share Sale
- RIO LN : Palliser: Rio’s Reasons for Rejecting Listing Review Unwarranted
- RYA ID : Ryanair Allows Non-EU Nationals to Buy Ordinary Shares
- Starlink IPO : Elon Musk: Starlink will 'never' shut off its terminals in Ukraine
- TSLA US : Tesla Is Flailing in China and the Rapid Rise of BYD Is to Blame
- Thames Water : Thames Water Making Plans for Possible Special Administration
- TTE FP : Elliott Takes Short Position in Total Amid BP Campaign
- 8TRA GY : Traton Sees 2025 Adj. Oper Margin 7.5% to 8.5%, Est. 8.66%
- 2330 TT : TSMC’s Sales Quicken In First Two Months in Upbeat Note for AI
- UBER US : Bolt, Uber’s European Rival, Takes Aim at North America - The Information
- VRLA FP : BWGI to Make Offer for Verallia Shares It Doesn’t Own
- VOW GY : Volkswagen’s Top Owner Sees €20 Billion Loss in 2024
- WPP LN : Kantar Owners Bain, WPP Plan Break Up and Sale of Group, FT Says

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 10 of March 2025

>>> Up
* Admiral PT Raised to 3,800 pence from 3,550 pence at RBC
* Babcock Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* Elis Raised to Outperform From Mkt Perform by Bernstein, Target Raised to EUR27.50 From EUR23.90 by Bernstein
* Eurocommercial Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* Greencore Group Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 230 pence
* Pennon Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 497 pence
* Straumann Raised to Buy at Octavian; PT 140 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Alstom Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 26 euros
* BAE Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* BT Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 150 pence
* Chemring Group Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* Emerson Electric Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $110
* Erste Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 66 euros
* Galderma Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 106 Swiss francs
* Holcim Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 109 Swiss francs
* Marex Group Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $36
* Neste Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 10 euros
* Tulikivi Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 42 euro cents

>>> Initiation
* Adyen Reinstated Overweight at Cantor; PT 1,924 euros
* Fastighets AB Trianon Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Nvidia Rated New Buy at Founder Securities

>>> Call
* Asia Stocks Attractive as Tariffs Hurt US Exceptionalism: Nomura
* Berenberg Lowers Neste to Hold on Decreased Profit Outlook Amid Tough Operating Conditions
* Equity Positioning Is Now Underweight: Deutsche Bank Strategists
* Galderma Upside Scope Relatively Limited, RBC Downgrades Rating
* Holcim Cut to Neutral at Citi, Value Seen Captured in Shares

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Airbus (AIR TH) +2.1%
  • Heidelberg Materials (HEI TH) +1.6%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +1.1%
  • Merck KGaA (MRK TH) +1.1%
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) +1%
  • Porsche SE (PAH3 TH) -1.2%
    • Volkswagen’s Top Owner Sees €20 Billion Loss in 2024
MDAX:
  • Traton (8TRA TH) +3.7%
  • Kion (KGX TH) +3.2%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +2.6%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +2.4%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +2.3%
  • Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX TH) -2%
    • JPMorgan places Carl Zeiss on negative catalyst watch
SDAX:
  • AlzChem Group AG (ACT TH) +7.8%
  • Vossloh (VOS TH) +4.6%
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) +4.1%
  • flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) +3.1%
  • Hamborner REIT (HABA TH) +2.6%
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) -1.5%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) -1.7%

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Buzzi SpA (UCM TH) +3.9%
  • Iveco (R3D TH) +3.2%
  • Kion (KGX TH) +2.8%
  • Dassault Aviation (DAU0 TH) +2.6%
  • ACS (OCI1 TH) +2.6%
  • BAE (BSP TH) +2.3%
    • BAE Cut to Hold at Berenberg
  • HSBC (HBC1 TH) +2.2%
  • Phoenix Group (1BF TH) +2.2%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +2.2%
  • STMicro (SGM TH) +2.2%
  • Porsche SE (PAH3 TH) -1.2%
    • Volkswagen’s Top Owner Sees €20 Billion Loss in 2024
  • Frontline PLC (HF6 TH) -1.2%
  • Argenx (1AE TH) -1.3%
  • Alstom (AOMD TH) -1.7%
    • Alstom Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 26 euros
  • Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX TH) -1.8%

WSJ : ICE Arrests Columbia Student Who Helped Lead Pro-Palestinian Protests

ICE Arrests Columbia Student Who Helped Lead Pro-Palestinian Protests
Mahmoud Khalil was picked up by immigration officers who said they were acting on State Department orders to revoke his green card, his lawyer says

A Columbia University student who helped lead last year’s pro-Palestinian demonstrations has been arrested by federal immigration authorities.

Mahmoud Khalil was detained Saturday night by Department of Homeland Security agents, according to his lawyer Amy Greer. The agents said they were acting on orders from the State Department to revoke his green card, Greer said.

Multiple immigration agents took Khalil into custody around 8:30 p.m. after entering his building, which is owned by Columbia University, according to his lawyer.

Khalil, who is Palestinian and Syrian, was able to call Greer from the lobby, she said, and one of the agents got on the phone to speak to her. When the agent told her the State Department had revoked his student visa, Greer said she informed the agent that Khalil is a lawful permanent resident.

“And the agent said they revoked that too,” said Greer. The agent hung up when she said she needed to see a warrant before Khalil could be detained, according to Greer. Khalil finished his studies in December and plans to walk in the school’s coming graduation ceremony, she said. During the protests he took on the role of negotiator between his group and administrators, his lawyer said.

DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin said on Sunday night that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents had arrested Khalil “in support of President Trump’s executive orders prohibiting anti-Semitism.”

She said Khalil “led activities aligned to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization” and his arrest was done in coordination with the Department of State. DHS didn’t provide details about the allegation.

A State Department spokesperson said the agency doesn’t comment on individual cases, citing visa confidentiality laws.

Columbia University said that law enforcement needs a judicial warrant to enter nonpublic areas, such as housing. A spokeswoman didn’t respond when asked in an email if the school had seen a warrant in Khalil’s case.

Khalil’s detention came a day after the Trump administration said it would cancel roughly $400 million in federal grants and contracts to Columbia University. The Ivy League school has come under scrutiny by the Trump administration for an alleged failure to protect Jewish students.

The grants in question are from the Department of Health and Human Services, the General Services Administration and the Education Department. In response, Columbia University said it is reviewing the agencies’ moves and pledged “to work with the federal government to restore Columbia’s federal funding,” adding that the school is “committed to combating antisemitism and ensuring the safety and well-being of our students, faculty, and staff.”

Greer said she hadn’t heard from Khalil since he was detained. “It’s hard to imagine how this could be separate and apart” from the Trump administration’s recent actions, she said.

The Justice Department has said it is sending a task force to visit Columbia and a group of other universities that have dealt with antisemitism. Those schools had some of the biggest pro-Palestinian demonstrations that disrupted campuses last year and prompted rebukes from across the political spectrum.

Columbia drew especially heated criticism from some alumni for what they perceived as the university’s tepid response.

TechCrunch : Neom is reportedly turning into a financial disaster, except for Mc

Neom is reportedly turning into a financial disaster, except for McKinsey & Co.

A new WSJ report suggests that Saudi Arabia’s now eight-year-old Neom project — a futuristic, carbon-neutral, 105-mile-long linear city envisioned by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — has become a financial sinkhole.

Plagued by delays and cost overruns, the country, which has already shelled out $50 billion, could reportedly face another 55 years of construction, with an astonishing projected cost of $8.8 trillion, according to an internal audit presented to Neom’s board last summer. That’s more than 25 times Saudi Arabia’s annual budget, notes the Journal.

The situation is starting to resemble Saudi Arabia’s own Waterloo, with MBS misjudging the monumental challenges inherent in his strategy, much like Napoleon did before him. Among the harsh realities threatening to derail the project are insufficient labor, inadequate roads, and a lack of electricity.

There are some winners, however. Consulting giant McKinsey & Company is reportedly earning more than $130 million annually for its services, despite some controversy surround its role, given the firm’s involvement in both the planning and validation of some of the project’s financial projections, per the story. A McKinsey spokesman tells the WSJ the firm has “strict protocols to prevent conflicts of interest in our engagements.”

WWD : Estée Lauder Focuses on Beauty Rest With Appointment of First Global Sleep

Estée Lauder Focuses on Beauty Rest With Appointment of First Global Sleep Adviser, Dr. Matthew Walker
In his role, Walker will provide educational content, be available for press opportunities and advise on future sleep-related products.

Estée Lauder is ready for its beauty sleep.

The company, known for its many nighttime skin care products, on Monday is announcing the appointment of its first global sleep adviser, Dr. Matthew Walker, who is an author, sleep scientist and professor of neuroscience and psychology at the University of California, Berkeley. In his role, Walker will provide educational content both internally and externally, employ his expertise for press opportunities and share his findings and knowledge in the field for Estée Lauder to expand and enhance its sleep-related skin care offerings.

“To see a brand that is trying to actually invest in the notion of the science of sleep, to me, was very appealing,” Walker said of the partnership. “I’m excited to get involved with the science, because there’s so much more that we want to know and can be doing, but the second component is education.”

For Estée Lauder, the appointment is an evolution of the brand’s ongoing commitment to the category, which includes fan favorites like the Advanced Night Repair Serum (Walker’s go-to), $128, and Advanced Night Cleansing Balm, $49.

“The Lauder brand has been all about night, researching night, obsessed with night for more than 40 years,” said Jennifer Palmer, Estée Lauder’s senior vice president, global innovation development and science leadership. “We launched the first night repair serum back in 1982 and have built that into such a powerhouse for our brand….We have undergone many years of research and learnings into understanding how skin is biologically, fundamentally different at night.”

Specifically, in 2013, the company released findings of a study done in collaboration with Case Western that showed a link between sleep deprivation and skin aging.

“We uncovered, sadly, that chronic poor sleep or [poor] quality of sleep ages your skin by two times,” Palmer said.

It’s this conversation that the brand is looking to expand by bringing Walker onboard.

“We are excited to have Matt start to advise and inform on upcoming research, upcoming new initiatives, as we think about the future of continuing to develop new studies and new research,” Palmer said.

To kickstart his position, the brand will be releasing an array of educational, short videos across its platforms featuring Walker discussing different sleep subjects — for example, he’ll define what good sleep really is, how it impacts the body and skin in particular and of course, share tips for better beauty rest. In addition, the brand has internal and external events planned where Walker will be featured.

“Sleep is the single most effective thing that you can do each and every day to reset your brain and body health, but skin is the very same thing under that rubric, too, that gets restored,” Walker said.

While the team didn’t share specifics, they said there is more coming when it comes to nighttime innovations.

“Lauder is incredibly committed to night. It’s in our DNA….This will absolutely continue to feed our innovation pipeline,” Palmer said. “This type of partnership with Dr. Matt Walker will help to guide, inform and strengthen the research and new pipeline of products that are to come.”

WSJ : Foxconn Builds FoxBrain, Its Own AI Model

Foxconn Builds FoxBrain, Its Own AI Model
Nvidia provided support through its Taiwan-based supercomputer and technical consulting

The world’s largest contract electronics maker, Foxconn, said Monday it has built its own large language model with reasoning capabilities, developed in-house and trained in just four weeks.

Initially designed for internal use within the company, the artificial intelligence model, called FoxBrain, can serve functions including data analysis, mathematics, reasoning and code generation, the company said.

Foxconn said Nvidia NVDA 1.92%increase; green up pointing triangle provided support through its Taiwan-based supercomputer and technical consulting, enabling successful model training.

The company said it intends to open-source the model for collaborations with industry partners. It envisions FoxBrain driving advancements in manufacturing and supply chain management.

The model “prioritized optimized training strategies over simply throwing computing power” at the problem, said Yung-Hui Li, director of Foxconn’s artificial intelligence research center.

Using 120 Nvidia H100 graphics processing units, Li’s team finished training FoxBrain in about four weeks, the company said.

Foxconn, best known for assembling Apple’s iPhones, has released some parameters of FoxBrain. The company said further information would be revealed at Nvidia’s annual technology event in mid-March.

Based on Meta’s Llama 3.1 structure, the company said FoxBrain was Taiwan’s first large language model with advanced reasoning, designed and optimized for traditional Chinese, the form of the language used in Taiwan and some overseas Chinese communities.

The company said its model’s performance was slightly behind some models of China’s DeepSeek but was approaching world-class levels.

Foxconn, facing challenges in its core electronics manufacturing business due to industry shifts and declining profitability, has been diversifying into areas such as AI and electric vehicles.

FT : FT economists’ poll: Germany can spend almost €2tn without harming growth

FT economists’ poll: Germany can spend almost €2tn without harming growth
FT survey finds ‘large fiscal capacity’, but economists urge would-be chancellor Friedrich Merz to spend funds wisely

The German government could take on just under €2tn in debt over the next decade without running the risk of damaging growth, according to a Financial Times analysis of a Eurozone economists poll that supports likely-chancellor Friedrich Merz’s fiscal bazooka.

An economists’ poll conducted last week estimated that Europe’s largest economy could raise its fiscal burden from its current level of 63 per cent of GDP to 86 per cent of GDP over the next decade without negative repercussions. The 28 economists’ responses imply fiscal space of €1.9tn.

“Germany has a large fiscal capacity,” said Marcello Messori, a professor at the European University Institute, Florence, adding that the space to create more debt should be used to push Germany’s and the wider European economy towards “high-tech sectors and an effective green transition.”

The findings come after Merz, head of the centre-right Christian Democrats, and his likely coalition partner, the Social Democrats, on Tuesday unveiled plans to boost the country’s creaking infrastructure and raise defence spending.

Economists anticipate the much-needed fiscal bazooka, which follows more than five years of economic stagnation, could lead to an additional €1tn in public borrowing over the next decade.

“The key point”, said Jesper Rangvid, professor at Copenhagen Business School, who estimated that the manageable debt level stands at 80 per cent “or perhaps 90 per cent”, was that Germany had “room to borrow responsibly”, to pay for urgently needed rearmament and infrastructure improvements.

“Critical infrastructure, such as the notoriously inefficient rail system and more generally its infrastructure, also digital infrastructure, must be upgraded,” he said.


The FT calculations of the €1.9tn in fiscal space assume that German nominal GDP will increase by 2 per cent per year from €4.3tn to €5.4tn by 2035. This estimate is likely to be conservative, as it does not account for any real GDP growth, should inflation match the European Central Bank’s 2 per cent target.

Many participants stressed that the additional borrowing needed to be combined with structural reform to raise the country’s productive capacity.

“Money alone will not solve the challenges,” said Ulrich Kater, the chief economist of Frankfurt-based Deka Bank.

Willem Buiter, former chief economist of Citi and adviser at Maverecon, described the German economy as “grotesquely over-regulated”.

On Saturday, the likely coalition partners outlined further policy details that clash with economists’ calls.

Instead of cutting red tape and unleashing sweeping pro-growth reform, the likely coalition instead promised new state benefits — including higher pensions for non-working mothers, a cut in VAT for restaurants, and a reintroduction of fuel subsidies for farmers.

Bert Flossbach, co-founder of German asset manager Flossbach von Storch, said ahead of the announcement on Saturday that the new government’s flexibility to spend big on defence could create “more room to increase social consumption and inflate the welfare state even further”.

Lorenzo Codogno, founder and chief economist of LC Macro Advisors, said that Germany’s “real problem” was its model that has prevailed over the past 20 years and was dominated by “sophisticated but old industries”. Germany also needed “leading-edge, innovative companies”, he said.

“German industries are stuck in a middle technology trap” and the country needed to “modernise” its manufacturing, said Antti Alaja, an economist at the Finnish Centre for New Economic Analysis.

Stefan Hofrichter, an economist at Allianz Global Investors, blamed the country’s stifling bureaucracy and tax regime, saying that the economy was dragged down by “too rigid bureaucracy” and “too high corporate taxes” which were both “contributing to private under-investments.”

Jörg Krämer, the chief economist of Commerzbank, urged Merz to dial back the state’s influence over the economy and to “trust the citizens and the corporates” instead in a push for “better business conditions”.

The findings were based on 28 quantitative responses given to a question on whether, leaving aside any legal borrowing limits, Germany could raise its federal debt without repercussions on growth.

A widely-cited 2010 study by Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart suggested that debt exceeding 90 per cent of GDP harms growth, but subsequent research has challenged this conclusion.

“The economic literature does not provide a definite answer on the appropriate level of public debt,” said Isabelle Mateos y Lago, group chief economist at BNP Paribas, adding that debt dynamics driven by nominal growth and borrowing costs were more important.

All of the 41 economists who responded to a question on Germany’s strict debt brake, which locks in additional spending at 0.35 per cent of GDP, said the borrowing rule, in place since 2009, should be eased.

More than a quarter — or 29 per cent of respondents — said it should be completely abolished, which 41 per cent or overhauled to provide “a lot more flexibility”. The remaining economists supported a moderate reform to introduce “a bit more flexibility.” No one called on the rule to be left unchanged or harden it.

“[The] German obsession with fiscal prudence is overdone and reforms are overdue,” said Martin Moryson, global head of economics at German asset manager DWS, adding that the incoming government had “obviously” understood the “magnitude of the task and stands up to the challenge.”

However, lawmakers for the Green Party said on Sunday that they opposed, in their current form, Merz’s plans to create fiscal space through moving defence spending above 1 per cent of GDP outside of the debt brake.

Their opposition could thwart the plans, which require changes to Germany’s constitution and a two-thirds majority in the parliament’s upper house, the Bundesrat, to pass.

FT : Trump’s energy chief says US shale can ‘drill, baby, drill’ at low oil pric

Trump’s energy chief says US shale can ‘drill, baby, drill’ at low oil price
Chris Wright claims industry can raise output even if crude falls to $50 a barrel as administration has suggested

US energy secretary Chris Wright has said the US shale sector can deliver President Donald Trump’s pledge to “drill, baby, drill” and boost oil production even if prices hit $50 a barrel, a level most analysts say would curtail drilling activity.   

The former chief executive of fracking group Liberty Energy told the Financial Times that the US sector could “absolutely” deliver both lower prices and higher production by “innovating” and driving “efficiency gains”.

But he predicted a period of industry disruption ahead, similar to that experienced by the shale sector during a bruising price war between Opec producers and the shale industry in 2014.

“There were a lot of bankruptcies. There was a lot of disruption, but the end result was far lower costs to produce a barrel of oil,” he said.

“We are going to see those same kind of market dynamics now. New supply is going to drive prices down. Companies are going to innovate, drive their prices down and consumers and suppliers will bounce back and forth.”

Wright, who has been criticised by green groups as Trump’s fracker-in-chief, said he was “pro-consumer” rather than “pro-business” and supported the president’s efforts to drive down energy prices.

His comments follow a steep decline in oil prices, with Brent crude falling to less than $70 last week for only the third time since before Russia’s 2022 full invasion of Ukraine. The unexpected decision by Opec+ to increase production, just as fears grow over the health of the US economy due to Trump’s tariff policies, have raised industry concerns about a possible oil glut.

Oil markets were jolted further on Tuesday when Peter Navarro, a trade adviser to Trump, suggested on Fox News that if oil fell to $50 a barrel it would help tame inflation. Trump has not given a specific dollar figure on where he wants oil prices to land, but during his campaign he repeatedly said he would slash energy costs in half within 12 months.

Wright’s comments will unnerve US oil executives, who are gathering at CERAWeek in Houston on Monday for the start of the largest oil and gas conference in the US. The industry is concerned that lower oil prices will dent profits and force it to curtail drilling activity at a time when Trump is demanding increased production.

Andrew Gillick, a managing director at energy research group Enverus, said he was not sure the Trump administration fully appreciated what $50 a barrel oil would do to the US energy industry.

“Operators had most likely planned for prices to be over $70 this year, so at $50, rigs would likely drop and activity slow. And when the rigs drop in the Permian you lose the associated gas that the LNG industry is counting on at the end of the year,” he said.

Daniel Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning energy historian and author of The New Map said that “at $50 a barrel the economics of shale don’t work”.

The average break-even price for shale in 2010 was $77 a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, the US market, compared with $45 a barrel in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.

Wright will deliver a keynote speech at CERAWeek on Monday. He is expected to get a warm reception from oil and gas executives, who have welcomed the Trump administration’s rollback of environmental regulations and pivot away from renewables.

Wright said he hoped the goal in the Paris Agreement for the world to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 was now dead. He said diverting investment away from fossil fuels had increased energy prices and caused energy poverty in developing countries.

“Believing that we will have a re-transformed energy system in 2050 is pure fantasy. The problem is its been destructive fantasy,” he said.

Wright said Germany and the UK’s pursuit of green policies made their electricity systems expensive and unreliable, which had resulted in certain industries relocating to Asia and the US.

“Our priorities are focused on humans, lives, job opportunities. We’re not focused on climate,” he said.

In response to Wright’s comments, the Environmental Defense Fund said a lot had changed in the world of politics in recent months, but the science of climate change had not.

“Wright appears to be in the habit of talking about the benefits of fossil fuels but without talking about the considerable costs or what we can do to address these costs,” said Mark Brownstein, senior vice-president of energy at EDF.

“Greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are contributing to natural disasters in the world, which are imposing huge and growing costs on economies and human misery.”