Qatar asks Hamas leaders to leave after US pressure
Washington says militant group’s rejection of deal to release Israeli hostages meant its presence was no longer ‘viable’
Qatar has told the leaders of Hamas to leave the country following pressure from Washington, in a significant shift in policy by the Gulf state.
The request was made around 10 days ago after intense discussions with US officials, according to one person familiar with the matter.
The gas-rich state has hosted Hamas’s political office in its capital, Doha, since 2012, when Syria’s civil war forced it to leave its base in Damascus, and the US asked Qatar to open a channel of communication with the Palestinian group.
Doha became a crucial interlocutor in hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas following the militant group’s deadly attack on southern Israel in October 2023, in which it killed 1,200 Israelis and took more than 250 hostage, according to Israeli officials.
Israel’s ensuing offensive in Gaza has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians, according to Palestinian officials.
More than 100 Israeli hostages were freed in a deal last year that Qatar helped broker. But the talks have since been deadlocked, and Doha was told that after the failure of “repeated proposals to release hostages, [Hamas’s] leaders should no longer be welcome in the capitals of any American partner”, said a senior Biden administration official.
“We made that clear to Qatar following Hamas’s rejection weeks ago of another hostage release proposal,” the official said.
The official added that while Qatar had played a key role in trying to negotiate a ceasefire and the release of the remaining Israeli hostages held by the militant group over the past year, “following Hamas’s repeated refusal to release even a small number of hostages, including most recently during meetings in Cairo, their continued presence in Doha is no longer viable or acceptable”.
A person familiar with the matter said Hamas figures in Qatar would relocate to Turkey. The country has long harboured Hamas political operatives and since the start of the war in Gaza, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been vocal in his support for the group.
Turkey’s foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
In recent years, Qatar has poured millions of dollars into Gaza — which Hamas has governed since it seized control of the enclave in 2007 — to pay the salaries of civil servants and support struggling Palestinian families.
The country’s image was tarnished by its relationship with Hamas after the October 7 attack. But its role as a mediator in ceasefire talks attracted international praise, and it successfully brokered the release last year of the more than 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian women and children held in Israeli jails.
But, frustrated by both sides’ intransigence in the talks to end the conflict in Gaza and criticism of Qatar by politicians in the US and elsewhere, Qatari prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said in April that Doha was re-evaluating its role as mediator.
An Arab diplomat said Hamas officials had recently visited countries including Turkey, Iran, Algeria and Mauritania, and discussed the possibility of relocating.
“Qatar hosted Hamas leaders in the first place after they got a green light from the Americans. It’s logical to try to get rid of them when the US position changes,” the diplomat said.
How Trump’s policy could boost the LNG supply wave
Market was already preparing for a supply glut which could lower European natural gas prices
President-elect Donald Trump famously wants to make America great again. But at least one of his policy ideas has the potential to give European industry a leg up too.
Trump has vowed to encourage upstream production — to a “drill, baby, drill” refrain. He is also expected to lift a Joe Biden-era moratorium on licensing new liquefied natural gas export facilities.
These measures would have an incremental, rather than revolutionary impact. US natural gas production has risen to record levels of about 125bn cubic feet a day, up nearly half over the past decade. While rolling back royalties, compliance and costs might give drillers an extra incentive, the uplift would be capped by the downward pressure on oil and gas prices.
The “temporary pause” on new authorisations for LNG terminals, meanwhile, affected earlier-stage projects. A reversal would not have an immediate impact, although it undoubtedly strengthens the prospects for more LNG supply in the medium term. WoodMackenzie has estimated almost 90mn tonnes per annum (mtpa) of US projects were awaiting for export approval.
All of this matters because it comes in the context of an LNG market which is already preparing for a glut. Projects with 130 mtpa of capacity are scheduled to come on stream between 2025 and 2027 — equivalent to 33 per cent of existing LNG capacity, according to Bernstein analysis.
That is lower than estimated because projects suffer delays and complications. But it still far outstrips demand growth expected in the period. As this flood of supercooled fuel hits European shores, it is a fair bet it will drive prices down.
Market forces, then, are conspiring to bring cheaper gas to Europe, at least for some time. Geopolitics raises further questions. Trump’s campaign included a vow to bring Russia’s war with Ukraine to a speedy conclusion. The president-elect’s ability to do this remains questionable. It would have momentous implications, of which energy — given Russia’s huge gas reserves — is but one.
For the next year or so, the market will remain subject to bouts of volatility — particularly if Europeans were to experience a seasonal cold snap. LNG supply is still reasonably tight given delays and outages, but European gas demand remains well below pre-crisis levels. Looking beyond that, however, the supply is still coming — and in greater quantities.
For tariff-facing European industries, especially those in energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals and steelmaking, the prospect of a midterm decline in energy prices would come as some relief.
UK home sales still below pre-pandemic levels
Pricier mortgages in recent years have a knock-on effect on property transactions
The UK housing market is struggling to regain momentum after a record low number of sales last year, as higher borrowing costs and political uncertainty keep the brakes on transactions.
Forecasts show UK homes sales are on track to rise this year, but remain below the long-run pre-pandemic average of 1.2mn deals a year. Savills forecast 1.04mn sales in 2024, with Hamptons and Zoopla expecting 1.1mn.
“The direction of mortgage rates has been key to buyer decisions over the past two years, and decreased monthly mortgage costs are now feeding through into improved confidence among prospective buyers,” said Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills.
The Bank of England has begun to lower its benchmark interest rate from the 16-year high of 5.25 per cent, where it stayed for much of 2023. It cut rates to 4.75 per cent this week following a quarter-point reduction in August.
While mortgage costs have declined they have plateaued at about 4 per cent on fixed-rate deals for buyers — with some rates drifting higher in recent weeks.
The number of home sales is an important sign of confidence in the housing market and wider economy, and influences how many new homes commercial housebuilders will bring to market at a time of severe supply shortages.
Sales in more expensive markets such as London, the south-east and eastern England have fallen as much as 30 per cent, compared with the decade average before the pandemic.
Relatively high interest rates in recent years have meant a slower rebound in sales, particularly since house prices have not fallen as sharply as many analysts predicted during the market downturn.
House prices are still hovering around their 2022 peak in nominal terms, according to different gauges, having fallen about 10 per cent on an inflation-adjusted basis. Prices are forecast to end 2024 moderately higher, with Savills putting the probable gain at 3 per cent and Zoopla at 2 per cent.
First-time buyers are forecast to make up the biggest cohort of buyers, at just over a third, according to Zoopla. Renters who can save a large enough deposit, or get money from family, are now often better off buying than renting given the record increases in rents.
“The rapid growth in rents and the decline in mortgage rates have shifted the renting vs buying dynamics and supported more [first-time] purchases,” said Richard Donnell, Zoopla research director. Average mortgage costs for a typical UK first-time buyer home are 17 per cent cheaper than rent, Zoopla reported.
Other potential buyers, who do not have strong reasons to move this year, have been put off by a series of big political events, including significant elections in the UK and US and last month’s UK Budget. With those events now out of the way, analysts say borrowing costs will be the key driver of how fast the market recovers.
The number of mortgage approvals hit a two-year high in September, as more buyers prepared to jump into the market.
The government’s decision to let temporary tax breaks on stamp duty expire in April could prompt some buyers to try to race through their transactions. Zoopla said there had been an uptick in inquiries for properties advertised as “chain free”, since they are typically quicker to buy.
“The changes to stamp duty might provide a modest boost to transaction numbers in the first quarter of the year,” said Aneisha Beveridge, head of research at Hamptons, especially for first-time buyers who could save up to £11,250. But she said there was not likely to be a “widespread rush”.
The AI Power Play May Be Running Out of Juice
The bullish case for power stocks was based on tech companies signing lucrative agreements to plug their data centers directly into power plants. Regulators are biting back.
The stocks of power-plant owners have rocketed higher this year as dramatically as Nvidia —and even more so, in some cases. Shares of Constellation Energy
have doubled, while Vistra and Talen Energy have tripled. Artificial-intelligence computer programs demand extraordinary amounts of electricity, and tech companies are willing to pay up to secure it.
The stocks of power-plant owners have rocketed higher this year as dramatically as Nvidia—and even more so, in some cases. Shares of Constellation Energy
have doubled, while Vistra and Talen Energy have tripled. Artificial-intelligence computer programs demand extraordinary amounts of electricity, and tech companies are willing to pay up to secure it.
There may be limits to those gains, however—even in a Trump administration.
The bullish case for power stocks was premised, at least in part, on tech companies signing lucrative agreements to plug their data centers directly into power plants. The data centers would get dedicated electricity, and the power companies would get guaranteed payments at above-market rates. But on Nov. 1, federal regulators rejected the first of those deals, which Amazon.com had signed with Talen to plug a data center into a Pennsylvania nuclear reactor that Talen owns. (Nuclear power has been in particularly high demand because it’s considered reliable and clean.) In reaction, Talen and Vistra stocks fell 2% and 3%, respectively, and Constellation—the largest owner of nuclear plants in the country—fell 12%.
The ruling came from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, which oversees the nation’s electricity grids. Nearby utilities had argued that Amazon was trying to siphon power away from the grid without helping to pay for the transmission network that keeps electricity flowing to regular consumers. One FERC commissioner wrote that Amazon’s plan “could have huge ramifications for both grid reliability and consumer costs.” Talen said FERC’s ruling was wrong and would stunt economic development. Amazon declined to comment.
The FERC decision is a sign that there’s a limit to how much power companies can benefit from special data-center deals.
Power and tech stocks have been rising together this year because of how much electricity the data centers will need. But the two industries won’t move in tandem forever because they serve different roles in society. Electricity is a public resource that needs to serve a wide range of customers, including elderly people on fixed incomes and struggling families. No one bats an eyelash if Nvidia charges Microsoft a high price for microchips. But if Grandma’s electricity bill skyrockets, regulators notice.
Electricity rates have already been heading higher. Average retail rates jumped 17% from 2021 to 2023, and are up again this year. Demand from electric vehicles, factories, and data centers is one reason for the rise. Analysts have projected that data-center power use could triple by 2030 and account for as much of 10% of total U.S. electricity demand.
Regulators, utilities—which maintain power grids—and consumer advocates are starting to look more closely at who benefits from electricity contracts, and who pays. The FERC ruling is just one example.
PJM, the nation’s largest electricity grid operator, recently delayed a power auction to address concerns raised in a complaint from the Sierra Club and consumer advocacy group Public Citizen that it is overpaying power companies like Talen, Vistra, and Constellation for reliable power. The last PJM auction resulted in projected payments that are nine times as high as current prices—which will invariably lead to higher consumer prices.
PJM says that the higher rates were necessary to encourage more power companies to build plants and increase electricity supply to meet surging demand. But if regulators find that the payments are too high, power companies could lose out and consumers could get rebates. And future auctions would probably be less lucrative for the power companies, too.
In addition, some utilities are demanding that tech companies pay more to access power for their data centers. American Electric Power Ohio said that it has gotten so many requests to power data centers that the region’s power demand is on track to double in a decade. Building out all of those transmission lines won’t be cheap, and AEP asked the tech companies to pay more. A settlement in that case is pending.
Eventually, regulators will have to determine who pays for all this electricity infrastructure. Some of those costs will be borne by the tech companies, some will be passed directly through to consumer bills, and some may have to be absorbed by the utilities. Power plant owners like Vistra, Constellation, and Talen that sell the electricity to utilities and corporations should still benefit, but their gains aren’t unlimited. The stocks already discount substantial earnings growth for years ahead. Constellation, for example, trades at 19 times its projected 2028 earnings.
The politics of electricity may only get more complicated from here. The two FERC commissioners who voted against the Amazon deal are Republicans, while the one dissenter is a Democrat. (Two other Democratic regulators recused themselves from the case for unexplained reasons.) While Republican-appointed regulators have a reputation for siding with corporate interests, that hasn’t always been the case in electricity markets, says Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s energy program. Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a conservative Republican, has raised concerns about how the growth of data centers could affect Texas electricity consumers.
Electricity is a “hot political issue,” Slocum says. “Any policy that’s seen as exacerbating energy costs—because energy costs are inherently regressive—can become a flashpoint.”
He thinks new political alliances are forming and could affect companies. “There are very interesting stakeholder differences here,” he says. “This is unprecedented.”