>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of November 2024 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Banco BPM Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 7.10 euros
* Banco BPM Raised to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 7.30 euros
* Chargeurs Raised to Buy at Gilbert Dupont; PT 13.50 euros (++)
* DiaSorin Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 100 euros
* Ericsson Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 100 kronor
* Huhtamaki Raised to Outperform at Handelsbanken; PT 52 euros (+)
* Just Eat Takeaway Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Kingspan Raised to Buy at UBS (+)
* Societe Fonciere Lyonnaise Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF (++)
* Vestas Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT 128 kroner (+)

>>> Down
* Credit Agricole Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Duerr Cut to Hold at Quirin Privatbank AG; PT 23 euros (++)
* EDAG Eng Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg; PT 9.50 euros (++)
* EDP Renovaveis Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 15 euros
* Exclusive Networks Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 24.25 euros
* JPMorgan Cut to Underperform at Baird; PT $200
* Klepierre Cut to Neutral at Invest Securities SA; PT 27.40 euros (++)
* Nexans Cut to Underperform at BofA (+)
* Palantir Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $28
* Rational Cut to Sell at mwb research AG; PT 770 euros (++)
* Schroders Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 358 pence
* Siemens Energy Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Sinch Cut to Market Perform at Handelsbanken; PT 33 kronor (+)
* Sodexo Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 80 euros
* Suominen Cut to Sell at Evli Bank; PT 2.20 euros (+)
* Vestas Cut to Underperform at BofA (+)
* XXL Cut to Sell at Pareto Securities; PT 9 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Ericsson Rated New Underperform at Bernstein; PT 74 kronor (+)
* Fresenius SE ADRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $11.50
* HelloFresh Rated New Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 17 euros (+)
* Nokia Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 4.65 euros (+)
* Planisware Rated New Hold at Portzamparc; PT 24 euros (+)
* SmartCraft Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 35 kroner

>>> Call
* Adyen Falls on Tradegate as Sales Miss Estimates on Lower Volume (+)
* Bank of America Cuts Renewable Firms, Vestas, Siemens Energy, Nexans Cut at BofA After Trump Win (+)
* DiaSorin Downgrades Have Troughed, Morgan Stanley Lifts Rating
* Gubra Raises Low End of Range for CRO Business 2024 Guidance
* Heidelberg Materials Result Welcomed by Jefferies on Growth Plan (+)
* Schroders Cut at Morgan Stanley on Limited Growth Visibility

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of November 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Banco BPM Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 7.10 euros
* Banco BPM Raised to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 7.30 euros
* DiaSorin Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 100 euros
* Ericsson Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 100 kronor
* Huhtamaki Raised to Outperform at Handelsbanken; PT 52 euros (+)
* Just Eat Takeaway Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Kingspan Raised to Buy at UBS (+)
* Vestas Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT 128 kroner (+)

>>> Down
* Credit Agricole Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* EDP Renovaveis Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 15 euros
* Exclusive Networks Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 24.25 euros
* JPMorgan Cut to Underperform at Baird; PT $200
* Nexans Cut to Underperform at BofA (+)
* Palantir Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $28
* Schroders Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 358 pence
* Siemens Energy Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Sinch Cut to Market Perform at Handelsbanken; PT 33 kronor (+)
* Sodexo Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 80 euros
* Suominen Cut to Sell at Evli Bank; PT 2.20 euros (+)
* Vestas Cut to Underperform at BofA (+)
* XXL Cut to Sell at Pareto Securities; PT 9 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Ericsson Rated New Underperform at Bernstein; PT 74 kronor (+)
* Fresenius SE ADRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $11.50
* HelloFresh Rated New Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 17 euros (+)
* Nokia Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 4.65 euros (+)
* Planisware Rated New Hold at Portzamparc; PT 24 euros (+)
* SmartCraft Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 35 kroner

>>> Call
* Adyen Falls on Tradegate as Sales Miss Estimates on Lower Volume (+)
* Bank of America Cuts Renewable Firms, Vestas, Siemens Energy, Nexans Cut at BofA After Trump Win (+)
* DiaSorin Downgrades Have Troughed, Morgan Stanley Lifts Rating
* Gubra Raises Low End of Range for CRO Business 2024 Guidance
* Heidelberg Materials Result Welcomed by Jefferies on Growth Plan (+)
* Schroders Cut at Morgan Stanley on Limited Growth Visibility

The Information : Two OpenAI Business Partners Each Discuss $2 Billion Valuation

Two OpenAI Business Partners Each Discuss $2 Billion Valuation

The Takeaway
A slew of OpenAI vendors and business partners have capitalized on the company’s momentum.

OpenAI’s rapid growth continues to boost the prospects of suppliers and other business partners whose sales are also climbing quickly.

Anysphere, which develops Cursor, an artificial intelligence coding assistant powered in part by OpenAI technology, has received investment offers from venture capitalists at a valuation of around $2.5 billion, up more than six times from its valuation in a deal roughly four months ago, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation.

Meanwhile, Mercor, a staffing provider OpenAI and other AI developers use to find contractors, has spoken to investors about raising at least $100 million at a valuation of as high as $2 billion—eight times higher than its valuation in a financing six months ago, according to two people with direct knowledge of the discussions.

A slew of OpenAI vendors and business partners have capitalized on the company’s momentum, most notably Microsoft, OpenAI’s biggest benefactor. Numerous startups that supply the ChatGPT developer with data center servers to power its technology or contractors who evaluate its models have also attracted capital as OpenAI’s valuation and revenue (as well as its losses) have soared.

Revenue at Anysphere, whose Cursor assistant autocompletes and rewrites code for developers as they type, has increased rapidly lately. The company’s subscription revenue has risen to a pace of nearly $50 million a year, or around $4 million per month, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation. That’s up from a pace of more than $20 million in revenue a year, or over $1.6 million per month, as of October, The Information previously reported.

The $2.5 billion–valuation investment offer would be about 50 times the startup’s forward revenue, or in line with valuation multiples of other AI firms. Its gross profit margins couldn’t be learned. Six other AI coding startups have a private valuation of between $1 billion and $3 billion, according to the Generative AI Database.

OpenAI itself has financed Anysphere, as have Andreessen Horowitz and Thrive Capital, which are both OpenAI shareholders. John Schulman, a co-founder at OpenAI who recently joined Anthropic, is also named as an investor in the company, according to a job posting by Anysphere.

But OpenAI recently began to compete more aggressively with Cursor through new features it launched in ChatGPT. And OpenAI is doubling down on developing AI assistant features and products that would further ratchet up the competition. Software developers are among the top customers of ChatGPT, which the company projected would generate about $3 billion in subscription revenue this year.

Cursor ranks high in The Information 50 list of promising startups. Developers using Cursor can power the service with large language models from OpenAI as well as rivals such as Anthropic.

Cursor differentiates itself from competitors by incorporating knowledge of a developer’s entire code base in its suggestions, developers say. For instance, the assistant can suggest lines of code in the developer’s coding style and understand how different files in the same project relate to each other.

Armies of Human Evaluators

The potential deal involving Mercor comes six months after the company, founded two years ago, raised capital at a $250 million valuation in a deal led by Benchmark that also included investment from two OpenAI directors, Adam D’Angelo and Larry Summers, as well as Peter Thiel, a co-founder of Founders Fund. Since then, the company has supplied OpenAI with contractors to evaluate its AI models.

Mercor recently received multiple term sheets, including one from Felicis Ventures, and could opt to raise money at a lower valuation than $2 billion, one of the people said. It has projected that by the end of 2024, its revenue will reach a pace of $50 million annually, or more than $4 million per month, this person said. (Such firms typically report revenue as a gross figure that includes the amount contractors keep for their work, but it isn’t clear if that’s the case with Mercor’s figures.)

Part of Mercor’s appeal to investors is its work with AI developers, including OpenAI, which need experts in subjects like law and medicine to help train models, said a person briefed on the round. Another major AI developer, Meta Platforms, also has used Mercor to find contractors, the startup has told a potential investor.

Mercor could threaten bigger rivals such as Scale AI and Turing, which are different from Mercor in that they typically manage the contractors as well as the work those people do for customers, while Mercor doesn’t necessarily manage its contractors’ work.

Mercor, which uses AI to interview and screen candidates, similar to how Turing operates, has more than 300,000 workers registered with its marketplace, including former engineers at Google and Amazon, according to its website. (Turing, by comparison, says millions of software engineers are part of its marketplace.)

Scale and other competitors such as Labelbox and Surge AI have attracted high valuations on strong demand from AI developers that need human workers to evaluate AI models so developers can tweak them to perform better in a range of tasks. But there are signs that some AI companies may be looking to cut out these vendors in favor of bringing the work in-house. Elon Musk’s xAI, for instance, is hiring “AI tutors” with expertise in Japanese or mathematics to help the company improve its models, though it also has been using Turing to make its models better at coding, The Information reported.

Scale recently announced a new product, Expert Match, that—similar to Mercor’s core service—lets AI developers connect directly with contractors to train models. Labelbox has also been developing a service to help AI companies hire such workers, a person with direct knowledge of the effort said.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Banco BPM (BPM TH) +3.5%
    • Banco BPM Unit Starts Takeover Bid on Anima at €6.20 Per Share
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) +3.4%
    • Lanxess 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Margin Beats Estimates
  • Rubis (BYN TH) +2.8%
  • RWE (RWE TH) +2.8%
  • EDP SA (EDP TH) +2.6%
  • GTT (9TG TH) +2%
  • Unilever (UNVB TH) +1.5%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +1.4%
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) +1.4%
  • Puma (PUM TH) -1.2%
  • Novo Nordisk (NOV TH) -1.4%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -1.8%
  • Hexagon (HXG TH) -2%
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) -3.2%
    • Daimler Truck 3Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -4.1%
    • Siemens Energy Cut to Neutral at BofA
  • Legrand (LRC TH) -8.4%
    • Legrand 3Q Organic Revenue Misses Estimates
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) -14%
    • Adyen 3Q Net Revenue Misses Estimates

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • RWE (RWE TH) +2.8%
    • Elliott Is Said to Take Stake in RWE, Call for Share Buyback (3)
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +1.7%
    • Rheinmetall Orders Surge as Europe Boosts Military Spending
  • BMW (BMW TH) +0.9%
    • Watch German Stocks as Chancellor Scholz Calls for Snap Election
  • Fresenius SE (FRE TH) +0.8%
    • Fresenius SE ADRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $11.50
  • Munich Re (MUV2 TH) +0.7%
    • Munich Re Sees FY Profit Above EU5B, Saw EU5B
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) -3.5%
    • Daimler Truck 3Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -3.8%
    • Siemens Energy Cut to Neutral at BofA
MDAX:
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) +3.4%
    • Lanxess 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Margin Beats Estimates
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) +3%
    • Nordex Sees FY Ebitda Margin High End of 3% to 4%, Saw 3% to 4%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +2.6%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) +2.3%
    • HelloFresh Rated New Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 17 euros
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +1.4%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -1.3%
SDAX:
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) +3.7%
  • Norma (NOEJ TH) +2.3%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +2.2%
  • Duerr (DUE TH) +0.9%
    • Duerr 3Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
  • Encavis (ECV TH) -1.9%
  • Kontron (KTN TH) -2.6%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) -2.7%
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) -3.6%

>>> What to look at today - 7th of November 2024

Most Asian shares rose, following their US peers higher, as investors positioned for a second Donald Trump presidency and an expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.  Equity gauges rallied in Hong Kong and China on expectations that Beijing will roll out more stimulus. That was after the S&P 500 surged 2.5% Wednesday, its best post-election day in history, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 2.7%. The Fed is forecast to trim its benchmark rate by a quarter point Thursday.  The gains for US stocks reflected expectations that a Trump policy agenda favoring lower taxes and less regulation may support corporate profits. At the same time, Treasury 10-year yields surged 16 basis points on Wednesday on expectations the president-elect’s fiscal plans and proposal to hike tariffs will boost inflation and erode the Fed’s ability lower rates. Chinese stocks opened lower but then swung to a gain. Consumer and property shares rallied as traders bet Beijing would shift its focus to boosting domestic demand to offset any negative impact from Trump’s return to the White House. Chinese policymakers lowered their daily reference rate for the yuan to the lowest since late 2023, a sign the central bank is allowing depreciation after a surge in the dollar pummeled the currency.  In other positive news, China’s export growth surged in October to the fastest pace in more than two years, extending a months-long run of resilience that helped sustain the economy before a barrage of stimulus measures aimed at shoring up domestic demand. China’s regulators have told the nation’s banks to lower the rates they pay for demand deposits from other financial institutions in a move to free up idle funds to boost the economy, according to people familiar with the matter.  The yen rose in Asian trade after Japan’s chief currency official Atsushi Mimura said the authorities will take appropriate action against excessive currency moves. The currency had tumbled about 2% on Wednesday following Trump’s victory.  Bloomberg’s dollar index ticked lower in Asia after jumping about 1.3% on Wednesday. Treasury 10-year yields slipped one basis point to 4.42%. Spreads on Asian investment-grade dollar bonds tightened to a record low, with yield premiums on the notes declining by at least one basis point, according to credit traders. Spreads had narrowed to 73 basis points Wednesday, then the lowest based in data compiled by Bloomberg stretching back to 2009.  Fed officials are widely forecast to lower their benchmark rate by 25 basis points at the end of their two-day meeting, a move that will come on the heels of the half-point cut in September. They have projected one more quarter-point reduction this year and an additional full point of reductions in 2025, according to the median estimate released in September.  Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — tumbled Wednesday by the most since August. Almost 19 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, 63% above the daily average in the past three months. Bitcoin, viewed by many as a so-called Trump trade after he embraced digital assets during his campaign, slipped Thursday after rising to a record high the day before. Oil gained after a roller-coaster session on Wednesday as traders weighed the likely impact of Trump’s election victory on the crude market. US After Hours APP +28.4%, LYFT +21.5%, BROS +16.8%, FRSH +15.4%, ZG +14.3%, GH +13.4%, QCOM +6% higher on earnings; APPS -41%, CDLX -29.9%, SEDG -21.1%, MELI -9.2%, DUOL -5.9% lower on earnings.

Nikkei -0.25% Hang Seng +1.53% CSI +2.61% Shanghai +2.25% Shenzen +2.21%

Eur$ 1.0742 CNH 7.1903 CNY 7.1754 JPY 154.09 GBP 1.2929 CHF 0.8751 RUB 97.8173 TRY 34.2080 WTI$ 72.03 +0.47% Gold 2,655 -0.14% BTC 74,666 -1.70% ETH 2,825 +5%

S&P +0.17% Nasdaq +0.30% EuroStoxx +0.50% FTSE +0.37% Dax +0.39% SMI +0.39%

Macro :
- EU Regulators Probe if Visa, Mastercard Fees Harm Retailers:Rtrs
- Trump Has Tools to Fire Powerful Financial Regulator in Term Two
- Scholz Fires Finance Minister, Raising Prospect of New Election

Keep an eye on :
- AALB NA : Aalberts 10-Month Org. Revenue -2.9%, in Line With Views
- ADYEN NA : Adyen 3Q Net Revenue Misses Estimates (1)
- ALFEN NA : Alfen 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- ALMB DC : Alm Brand Boosts FY Pretax Profit Forecast, Beats Estimates (1)
- AMS SM : Amadeus 3Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- AMG NA : AMG 3Q Net Loss $13.4M
- AMS SW : AMS-Osram 4Q Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates
- ANIM IM : Banco BPM Launches Bid for Anima Valuing Firm at €2 Billion
- ANORA FH : Anora Group Oyj 3Q Net Sales Misses Estimates
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal 3Q Ebitda Beats Estimates, ArcelorMittal Says Market Unsustainable But Sees Demand Pick-up
- ARM US : ARM Holdings Sees 3Q Revenue $920M to $970M, Est. $950.9M
- ASTK DC : Asetek Hires ABG as Financial Adviser for Rights Issue
- ASTS US : AST SpaceMobile Slips as Election May Give Rival SpaceX a Leg Up
- AUTO NO : Autostore 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- BALN SW : Cevian’s Baloise Move Triggers Top Europe Insurers to Study Deal
- BAMNB NA : BAM 9M Revenue EU4.62B Vs. EU4.54B Y/y
- BAMI IM : Banco BPM Unit Starts Takeover Bid on Anima at €6.20 Per Share
- BEN FP :Beneteau 3Q Revenue EU193.9M Vs. EU315.6M Y/y Vontobel AUM CHF227.6B end of Sept. vs CHF206.8B Y/Y
- BPE IM : BPER Banca 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- BRNK GY : BRANICKS Group AG 9M FFO per Share EU0.43 Vs. EU0.4 Y/y
- BT/A LN : BT 1H Adjusted Ebitda Matches Estimates
- CAMX SS : Camurus 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates, Camurus Boosts FY Pretax Profit Forecast
- CMBT BB : CMB Tech NV 3Q EPS Beats Estimates
- CRI FP : Chargeurs 3Q Revenue EU165.3M Vs. EU148.6M Y/y
- CTY1S FH : Citycon Narrows FY EPRA EPS Forecast
- COL SM : Colonial to Analyze Absorbing SFL Unit Through a Possible Merger
- COP GY : CompuGroup 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- COTY US : COTY: Coty reports Q1 adjusted EPS 15c, consensus 19c
- CRH LN : CRH Said to Weigh Fresh Sale Attempt for Philippines Cement Unit
- CYTK US : Cytokinetics 3Q Total Revenue Misses Estimates
- DFDS DC : DFDS Maintains FY Revenue Forecast
- DTG GY : Daimler Truck 3Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- DBV FP : DBV Tech 3Q Loss per Share 32C, Est. Loss/Shr 35C
- DHER GY : Delivery Hero 3Q Gross Merchandise Value Meets Estimates
- DEZ GY : Deutz 3Q Adjusted Ebit Misses Estimates
- DNO NO : DNO 3Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- DUE GY : Duerr 3Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- ENEL IM : Enel 9M Adjusted Net Income Beats Estimates
- ENGI FP : Engie 9M Ebit Excluding Nuclear EU7.1B Vs. EU8.0B Y/y, Engie Signals Upbeat Earnings View Even as 9-Month Profit Slips
- GN DC : GN Store Nord Sees 2024 Organic Revenue Growth of 1% to 2%
- GiLD US : Gilead Boosts FY Adjusted EPS Forecast, Beats Estimates
- HABA GY : Hamborner REIT Boosts FY FFO Forecast
- HEI GY : Heidelberg Materials 3Q Oper Ebitda Matches Estimates
- HTWS LN : Helios Towers 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Matches Estimates
- HEX NO : Hexagon Composites 3Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- ITP FP : Interparfums Inc 3Q EPS Beats Estimates
- INS GY : Instone Real Estate 9M Adjusted Net Income EU29M Vs. EU37.1M Y/y
- ICOS IM : Intercos 3Q Revenue EU275.2M Vs. EU246.7M Y/y
- IVG IM : Iveco 3Q Consolidated Revenue Beats Estimates
- KBC BB : KBC 3Q Net Income Beats Estimates (1)
- SKB GY : Koenig & Bauer 9M Ebit Loss EU6.8M Vs. Loss EU2.1M Y/y
- LXS GY : Lanxess 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Margin Beats Estimates
- MC FP : Bulgari CEO Sees China Luxury Market Recovering in Next 2 Years
- MEKO SS : Meko 3Q Revenue SEK4.40B Vs. SEK4.12B Y/y
- MUSTI FH : Musti Group 4Q Operating Profit EU5.80M Vs. EU10.7M Y/y
- MUV2 GY : Munich Re Sees FY Profit Above EU5B, Saw EU5B
- NEM GY : Nemetschek 3Q Ebitda Meets Estimates
- NDX1 GY : Nordex Sees FY Ebitda Margin High End of 3% to 4%, Saw 3% to 4%
- PIHLIS FH : Pihlajalinna 3Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- PIRC IM : Pirelli Chinese Investor Probed on Possible Golden Power Breach
- QIA GY : Qiagen Boosts FY Adjusted EPS Forecast
- QLYS US : Cybersecurity Company Qualys Is Said to Explore Potential Sale
- QCOM US : Qualcomm Sees 1Q Rev. $10.5B to $11.3B, Est. $10.54B: Snapshot
- RAA GY : Rational 3Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- RECSI NO : REC Silicon 3Q Revenue $33.8M Vs. $37.7M Q/Q
- RHM GY : Rheinmetall Extends Contract of CEO Papperger, Replaces CFO
- ROVI SM : Rovi 9M Net Income EU113.5M Vs. EU118.8M Y/y
- RWE GY : Elliott Is Said to Take Stake in RWE, Call for Share Buyback
- SBRY LN : Sainsbury 1H Revenue Meets Estimates
- SESG FP : SES Maintains FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
- SGL GY : SGL 9M Adjusted Ebitda EU127.6M Vs. EU130M Y/y
- STLA US : Stellantis to Lower Production, Cut Jobs at Toledo Plant
- STORB SS : Storskogen 3Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- SMHN GY : SUSS MicroTec 3Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- SREN SW : Swiss Re Now Sees FY Net Income Above $3B, Saw Above $3.6B
- TATE LN : Tate & Lyle 1H Adjusted Pretax Profit Beats Estimates
- TEF SM : Telefonica 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Matches Estimates, Telefonica Profit Drops After Impairment on Peru Unit, Inflation
- TEP FP : Teleperformance Has Sequential Like-For-Like Growth: Street Wrap
- TEN IM : Tenaris 3Q EPS Beats Estimates
- TRIP US : TripAdvisor 3Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- TRUEB SS : Truecaller 3Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- UBER US : Ride-Hailing Drivers in Massachusetts Win Right to Unionize
- VK FP : Vallourec Says Safeguard Plan Implemented in 2021 Has Ended
- VLA FP : Valneva Narrows FY Revenue Forecast
- VEI NO : Veidekke 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- VIE FP : Veolia 9M Ebitda EU4.94B Vs. EU4.79B Y/y
- VONN SW : Vontobel AUM CHF227.6B end of Sept. vs CHF206.8B Y/Y
- WEW GY : Westwing Group 3Q Adjusted Ebitda EU3.5M; Confirms FY Guidance
- XXL NO : XXL Announces Fully Underwritten Rights Issue of NOK 600M
- ZEAL DC : Zealand Pharma Maintains FY Net Operating Expense Forecast
- Zentiva : Advent Said to Mull €5 Billion Sale of Generic Drugmaker Zentiva
- ZURN SW : Zurich Ins. 9M P&C Gross Written Premiums $36.13B

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of November 2024

>>> Up
* Banco BPM Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 7.10 euros
* Banco BPM Raised to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 7.30 euros
* DiaSorin Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 100 euros
* Ericsson Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 100 kronor

>>> Down
* EDP Renovaveis Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 15 euros
* Exclusive Networks Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 24.25 euros
* JPMorgan Cut to Underperform at Baird; PT $200
* Palantir Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $28
* Schroders Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 358 pence
* Sodexo Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 80 euros
* XXL Cut to Sell at Pareto Securities; PT 9 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Fresenius SE ADRs Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $11.50
* SmartCraft Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 35 kroner

>>> Call
* DiaSorin Downgrades Have Troughed, Morgan Stanley Lifts Rating
* Gubra Raises Low End of Range for CRO Business 2024 Guidance
* Schroders Cut at Morgan Stanley on Limited Growth Visibility

FT : Risk assets rally but bond market views Donald Trump’s victory with caution

Risk assets rally but bond market views Donald Trump’s victory with caution
Analysts and investors warn tension between different aspects of president-elect’s policy add to risks of a reversal

US stocks and other risky assets rallied on Wednesday after Donald Trump’s decisive election victory, but bond investors highlighted why euphoria could be shortlived if the president-elect’s campaign policies drive up inflation.

“Sugar rush is a good term for what we’ve experienced,” said Tina Fordham, founder of advisory firm Fordham Global Foresight, which advises investors and corporate executives on political issues. While the Republican victory was good for equities, she said “we are not in the same economic environment that we were in 2016, and Trump’s policies are inflationary. I think it does eventually intersect with expectations about the Fed rate cutting cycle, and geopolitical risks.”

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both set new record highs on Wednesday, jumping 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively. 

Investors are always wary of reading too much into early moves after presidential elections, and many warned about the risk of “head-fakes” in the run-up to the vote. However, several analysts and investors said the tension between different parts of Trump’s policy platform added to the risks of a reversal.

Economists have warned that several of Trump’s proposed policies, including corporate tax cuts, sweeping tariffs and the deportation of millions of immigrants could cause a resurgence in inflation just as the Federal Reserve had grown confident that it had brought price rises under control.

Futures market pricing on Wednesday indicated investors were still expecting the Fed to announce a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, but they have scaled back their expectations for rate reductions over the next 12 months.

“You can simultaneously believe that a corporate tax cut noticeably increases the value of equities,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, “but at the same time that tax cut could increase deficits . . . and long-term interest rates.”

The Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies rose even further than the S&P, leaping 5.8 per cent to its highest level since 2021. The advance reflects a belief that small companies, which tend to be more focused on their domestic market, have more to gain from tax cuts and less to lose from a trade war. The Russell 2000 is also heavily weighted towards financial stocks, which investors are hoping will benefit from looser regulation and an increase in dealmaking.

However, it could also be on the frontline of any reversal in sentiment. The most important driver of the Russell for most of this year has been interest rate expectations, and a return to inflation and higher-for-longer rates could lead to a sharp reversal.

“We’re having an outsized reaction right now,” said Invesco’s chief global market strategist, Kristina Hooper. “A decisive win was a surprise given the polling, but I think there will be at least some modest reversal . . . as we hear more and more from the president-elect.”

Although equity investors on Wednesday were mainly focused on the positive side of the equation, there were already some pockets of activity pointing towards longer-term worries. The worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 was real estate, a sector where returns are highly correlated with interest rates. Utilities, another rate-sensitive sector, also slid.

Concerns were more pronounced in government bond markets. By late afternoon on Wednesday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up 0.15 percentage points to 4.44 per cent — its highest level since July — while the longer-dated 30-year yield climbed 0.17 percentage points to 4.62 per cent, reflecting a steep decline in price.

Bondholders and strategists said the sharp moves in Treasury yields reflected expectations of an inflationary environment during Trump’s presidency that could deter the Fed from rapidly easing monetary policy, after the central bank cut rates in September for the first time since 2020.

Invesco’s Hooper said: “I think we are getting much closer to the potential for ‘bond vigilantism’.” This is when bond investors try to force governments to change policy by driving up their borrowing costs. “A showdown could certainly be hastened because of this election.”

Still, Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income, stressed that the vast scale of the US economy and its bond market made it much less vulnerable to the sort of volatility that rocked the UK when former prime minister Liz Truss attempted to radically increase borrowing in 2022.

“I think we’re in a market where there are still more buyers than issuers,” he said. 

Investors also emphasised that while the results of Tuesday’s presidential election were decisive, and the Republicans had gained control of the Senate, there was less clarity over who would control the House of Representatives, which could affect Trump’s power to implement more radical proposals.

Bond investors “will be paying a lot of attention” to the final balance of power in Congress, said Dec Mullarkey, managing director at SLC Management. “Rates are by far the most responsible asset class in paying attention to the deficit.”

If bond yields continue to rise, investors predicted that equity investors would not be able to shrug it off forever. 

“In general we’re staying with a pro-risk posture,” said Matt Peron, global head of solutions at Janus Henderson, the $380bn asset manager. 

“Earnings are definitely picking back up . . . [and] you can take off some tail risk” due to the decisive result. But, he added: “The deficit issue and the interest rates issue will be something the equity markets have to contend with. I don’t think they can just ignore that.”

FT : Banks face growing risk as double defaults on commercial loans mount

Banks face growing risk as double defaults on commercial loans mount
A bank practice known as ‘extend and pretend’ has delayed a write-off reckoning but may hide a growing systemic risk

The number of US borrowers in danger of defaulting a second time on commercial property loans is at the highest level in a decade, raising concerns that a bank practice known as “extend and pretend” is hiding growing systemic risk.

“They are kicking the can down the road,” said Ivan Cilik, a principal with accounting firm Baker Tilly’s financial services group. “I think lenders are trying to work out the problems with these loans, but if rates don’t come down borrowers are not going to be able to make payments.”


Regulators are growing increasingly worried about the rise in loan modifications and whether they are distorting loan markets.

Last month, researchers at the New York Fed published a paper warning that lenders appeared in many cases to be offering breaks to property borrowers for the sole purpose of postponing a write-off.

“Banks ‘extended-and-pretended’ their impaired commercial real estate mortgages in the post-pandemic period,” the study’s others wrote, and warned the generous modifications could lead “to credit misallocation and a build-up of financial fragility.”

That is leading to a rise in double defaults.

At the end of September, the value of commercial real estate “re-defaults” was up 90 per cent in the past year through September, to $5.5bn, an increase of $1bn in the past quarter alone, according to data released earlier this week by the banks and compiled by industry tracker BankRegData.

That is the highest level since 2014 of modified, non-performing commercial real estate loans, in which a borrower was under stress, received relief — either a forgiven payment, lower mortgage rate or some other modification — and is once again delinquent.

A decade ago, delinquent mortgages on both residential and commercial properties were still falling from financial crisis highs.

This time around, as interest rates have risen, delinquencies and defaults have been concentrated in commercial properties — primarily office buildings that have seen a drop in tenants since the pandemic, though also malls and more recently apartment buildings.

In all, the value of rising defaults is still relatively small compared to the nearly $2tn that banks have lent into commercial property. But the value of delinquent property loans to developers and investors has risen 25 per cent to $26bn in the first nine months of this year.

The loan modifications have helped banks to report a slowdown in the rate of new delinquencies in commercial real estate, with a 40 per cent increase this year.

Last month, a Moody’s review of property loan modifications found that banks offered little in terms of payment breaks, often less than 2 per cent off total payments in the majority of bank modifications.

Instead borrowers were allowed to delay missed payments, and given more time to pay them back.

Still, about only about a third of the modifications that banks have offered in the past year have resulted in the borrower defaulting for a second time.

But given the relatively modest relief and the fact that many modifications are new, Baker Tilly consultant Cilik expects re-defaults, and eventually losses for banks, will continue to rise.

“We are in the early part of the curve,” said Cilik. “If we continue to see rising delinquencies we will know that these modifications are just not working out.”

FT : Carrefour seeks way out of strategic impasse

Carrefour seeks way out of strategic impasse
Retailer’s CEO Alexandre Bompard is examining range of options including disposals as share price lags peers

The French supermarket group was in talks with Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard to sell itself in a €16.2bn deal which would have created a transatlantic retail giant.

However that proposal was rapidly shut down by France’s finance ministry within a matter of days, on the grounds that it threatened the country’s food security. Later that year, Carrefour and smaller privately held French rival Auchan ended talks over a €19.4bn tie-up after the two sides failed to agree on terms and Carrefour faced opposition from some of its top shareholders. 

In the intervening years the Paris-listed group’s share price has stagnated at around €15 while it trades at a sizeable discount to the MSCI Europe Food & Staples Retailing index. Carrefour’s market capitalisation has also shrunk by more than a quarter to under €10bn since chief executive Alexandre Bompard took the helm in 2017.

That is partly why the 52-year-old executive has been examining a wide range of options with its advisers to boost valuation, four people with knowledge of the situation said.

Scenarios have included disposals, including Carrefour’s operations in Italy or Poland, one of the people said, who cautioned the deliberations which were first reported by Bloomberg were at a preliminary stage.

“What is certain is that Bompard is looking for a way out of Carrefour’s current situation. He can’t be satisfied with the current valuation,” said one of the people. “Conversations like this always take a long time to come to a decision because you’re weighing it against alternative scenarios such as a transaction on the whole.”

Bompard has been frustrated by Carrefour’s performance, several people familiar with the situation said. But gaining momentum in the competitive, low margin grocery retail business is notoriously difficult — especially as inflation has put pressure on consumers.

It is even more challenging in the fractured, highly competitive French market, which accounted for over a third of Carrefour’s global 14,930-strong store network and just under half of its €94.1bn in sales and operating income of €2.26bn last year.

The fifth largest supermarket group in Europe by sales, Carrefour has gained market share in its core French market in the past year — moving from 19 per cent at the start of the year to 21.4 per cent according to Kantar — thanks to investment in cutting prices and acquiring smaller rivals Cora and Match from Belgium’s Louis Delhaize group earlier this year. 

Over the years Bompard has aggressively cut costs and prices to woo customers and invested in ecommerce to catch up with competitors. He has also converted underperforming large format stores into franchises.

Carrefour has more than halved its product price gap with Leclerc, the historical price leader in France, compared to last year, analysts at Barclays noted. 

However while sales and cash generation have improved, operating margins have been difficult to budge and have declined slightly over the past three years, moving from 3.06 per cent in 2021 to 2.67 per cent last year.

Sales in France fell 3 per cent on a like-for-like basis to €11.7bn in its most recent quarter although volumes improved as the company invests in pricing amid fierce competition.

“This competitive pricing strategy is bearing fruit — Carrefour has started to regain market share in volume terms,” analysts at Barclays wrote. “A recovery in French margins is key for future earnings growth. The management team’s focus is on turning around domestic operations.”

Carrefour declined to comment for this story.


The question is what now. Selling out of non-core markets is a tactic Carrefour has employed before. It exited China, which was lossmaking, in 2019 as part of a global consolidation strategy after a period of rapid expansion that stretched the company’s resources. It also sold out of Taiwan in 2022, and departed Colombia in 2012.

“Exit multiples were very good for Colombia and Taiwan. Sales like this have been done before in the industry, and by Carrefour. It makes sense to retrench on the core when business is challenging,” said Cedric Lecasble, analyst at Stifel.

Spain and Brazil are both strong markets for Carrefour so are unlikely to be top candidates if Carrefour were to move forward with asset sales, Lecasble added. However mature, non-core European markets like Italy, Belgium, Romania or Poland could make sense, he said. 

The most radical solution would be a sale, such as to private equity groups. While the option has been floated by advisers over the years, the idea is fraught with difficulty, the people said. People close to the company insist it is not on the table.

Pharmaceutical giant Sanofi’s proposed deal to sell its consumer health division to American private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice in October set off a political firestorm. The French state has decided to take a small stake in the €16bn spin-off in order to guarantee its interests on issues like jobs and health supply chains. 

“Carrefour is one of the biggest employers in the country, and a private equity sale implies cost retrenchments and job cuts. The opposition on the social and political sides would be huge,” said Lecasble. 

Those constraints, plus the difficulties of the sector, may dampen interest. When the prospect had been floated to private equity in the past “the reaction has been: to do what with it?” said another banker in Paris. “The exit and synergies aren’t obvious.”

But with the share price still depressed and management keen for answers, “now could be a time to look at it, and other options, again,” said a third banker.