>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 14th of Sept 2026 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Antofagasta Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* Axfood Raised to Buy at Handelsbanken; PT 277 kronor
* Campari Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 7 euros
* Campari Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 6.50 euros
* Digi Spain Telecom Rated New Add at AlphaValue/Baader (+)
* Fortum Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 24 euros
* Hoegh Autoliners Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities
* IREN Ltd Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $65
* Persimmon Raised to Outperform at Davy (+)
* Renault Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Robertet Raised to Buy at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 896 euros
* Standard Chartered Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 2,510 pence
* Straumann Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 125 Swiss francs
* Telia Raised to Hold at Handelsbanken
* Vetoquinol Raised to Buy at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 86 euros
* ZIM Integrated Shipping Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays

>>> Down
* Adidas Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT 165 euros
* Accenture Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $194
* Barratt Redrow Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 290 pence (+)
* Carlsberg Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 950 kroner
* Crown Castle Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $80 (+)
* Dick's Sporting Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $150
* Elisa Cut to Sell at Handelsbanken; PT 35.50 euros
* HP Enterprise Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $65
* HSBC Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 1,620 pence
* MARA Holdings Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $11 (+)
* Nike Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $44
* Rocky Brands Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $50
* Stellantis Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Trainline Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 190 pence
* VF Corp Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $15

>>> Initiation
* 2G Energy Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 91 euros
* Fox Corp Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $95
* Huber + Suhner initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
* Lionsgate Studios Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
* OEM International Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 225 kronor
* On Holding Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $38
* Paramount Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $14
* Starz Entertainment Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens

>>> Call
* Carlsberg Volume Growth Trails Peers, Cut to Hold at Jefferies
* Huber+Suhner ‘Ticking all the Boxes,’ New Buy at Jefferies
* Morgan Stanley Sees European Earnings Resilient to Gas Spike (+)
* Renault Raised, Stellantis Cut at Morgan Stanley in EU Autos
* Straumann Upgraded at Goldman on Ebit, Free Cash Flow Growth (+)
* Trainline Cut to Underweight at Barclays on Limited Growth

TechCrunch : The 9 buzziest startups from Y Combinator’s latest Demo Day, accord

The 9 buzziest startups from Y Combinator’s latest Demo Day, according to VCs


Another Y Combinator Demo Day took place on Thursday, but this batch looked a little different. While every cohort brings a fresh wave of founders, the startups presenting this week skewed far more toward deep tech than in past years.

As we do every quarter, TechCrunch asked early-stage VCs to name the hottest startups in this batch — both their top picks and the deals everyone was talking about. And as usual, we put together a list of startups flagged by at least two investors as the buzziest in the batch.

The tech in this batch felt “like science fiction,” as one investor put it. But beyond the wild ideas, the consensus was that valuations were far more grounded than in recent cohorts.

We’ve listed the top picks alphabetically below:

Automarine

What it’s building: Nuclear-powered data centers floating at sea

Why it’s a fav: Power is in short supply and local communities are increasingly opposing the buildout of new data centers. Atomarine — co-founded by an MIT computer science and naval engineer and an MIT PhD in nuclear engineering — wants to solve the compute shortage by putting data centers on barges at sea, where seawater could provide near-free cooling. The startup plans to launch a gas-powered pilot by 2028 and plans to transition to floating nuclear power ships in 2032. Atomarine claims it has already secured over $4 billion in customer interest through letters of intent. That revenue potential has helped make it one of the highest-valued startups in the batch, one VC told TechCrunch.

Dipole Labs

What it’s building: Effective and energy-efficient high-speed optical networking hardware for AI data centers

Why it’s a fav: The idea is that GPU clusters waste a lot of compute time simply waiting for data to move between each chip. Within the networking layer, data is converted from light to electricity and back again in a process that burns lots of power and yields lots of heat. But Dipole Labs says it built an optical switch that skips the conversion so the data can stay as light and go directly where it needs to go. It’s a timely problem to tackle as GPUs are crazy expensive and data centers want the most out of their compute hardware without leaving any time to spare.

Isengard Industries

What it’s building: Locally producible, jet-powered strike and counter-drones

Why it’s a fav: Isengard aims to mass-produce jet-powered attack and counter-drones directly within allied countries, at a fraction of what prime contractors charge to build them in the U.S. Co-founded by a former Australian Army officer and a defense entrepreneur who previously scaled another Ukraine-focused drone startup to $60 million in revenue, Isengard is already generating $10 million in revenue itself. The startup has generated strong VC buzz, garnering one of the loftiest valuations in this YC batch, according to two investors.

Lamb Labs

What it’s building: Custom inference chips with hardcoded AI model weights

Why it’s a fav: Traditional AI chips burn massive amounts of energy during inference, fetching model weights from memory. Co-founded by an Imperial College London AI Ph.D. and an Oxford theoretical physicist, Lamb Labs wants to build ultra-efficient chips by hardcoding AI model weights directly into silicon. Dubbed “Model Processing Units” (MPUs), these custom chips eliminate memory-bandwidth bottlenecks.

Praxis AI

What it’s building: Collecting real-world data on which to train robots

Why it’s a fav: This company partners with businesses to collect videos and data of humans doing work, which it then turns into training material for companies building robots. It says it’s already working with publicly traded companies and has captured video data in more than 150 different environments. This company could become important as businesses start experimenting more with which tasks are best for humans — and, as AI continues to refine itself, which tasks are better left to a robot.

Nori

What it’s building: Creating affordable robots to handle everyday tasks

Why it’s a fav: Launched just six weeks ago, this company already touts almost half a million in sales. That’s not shocking — it’s a humanoid robot that is promising to help clean and fold clothes. Users can also operate their robot via a laptop app. It’s priced at around $1,600, which is a steal compared to other humanoids like Neo, priced around $20,000. One of the biggest questions in robotics is if it is possible to create an affordable at-home robot that can actually stack a dishwasher and do everyday home tasks. Nori is another swing at taking on the task.

Cosmic Robotics

What it’s building: Autonomous robots that can lift heavy objects

Why it’s a fav: The founders of this company want to build a city on Mars. The first step to that? Building robotic technology that performs heavy-duty tasks. It says its tech is already installing solar panels across the U.S. and that it has $25 million in contracts through 2027. The vision is that this technology can help automate construction for colonizing Mars. The startup is racing with SpaceX’s timeline for building on Mars, as it hopes to begin an exploratory mission by 2028.

Parasma

What it’s building: Training human brain cells to one day power compute

Why it’s a fav: Another company trying to find the best way to tackle how much power and energy is needed to run models. This time, Parasma is looking at using human brain cells as an effective, more energy-efficient alternative to today’s AI computing hardware.

Waddle Labs

What it’s building: An API layer that writes robot control code

Why it’s a fav: Investors and tech enthusiasts are hoping that the ChatGPT moment for robots is around the corner. That excitement is driving different approaches to creating a general robotics model. Instead of training foundation models on raw video or human teleoperation data, Waddle Labs uses a layer of LLM agents to write code and control robots directly. The startup, founded by Harvard graduates, is positioning itself as “Claude Code for robotics.” The startup claims that by plugging any hardware into Waddle’s API, developers will be able to tell the robot what to do in natural language, and its AI agents will autonomously generate executable control code, check that it worked, and set up the robot in about 20 minutes.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 14th of Sept 2026

>>> Up
* Antofagasta Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* Axfood Raised to Buy at Handelsbanken; PT 277 kronor
* Campari Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 7 euros
* Campari Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 6.50 euros
* Fortum Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 24 euros
* Hoegh Autoliners Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities
* Renault Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Robertet Raised to Buy at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 896 euros
* Standard Chartered Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 2,510 pence
* Straumann Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 125 Swiss francs
* Telia Raised to Hold at Handelsbanken
* Vetoquinol Raised to Buy at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 86 euros
* ZIM Integrated Shipping Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays

>>> Down
* Adidas Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT 165 euros
* Accenture Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $194
* Carlsberg Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 950 kroner
* Dick's Sporting Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $150
* Elisa Cut to Sell at Handelsbanken; PT 35.50 euros
* HP Enterprise Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $65
* HSBC Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 1,620 pence
* Nike Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $44
* Rocky Brands Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $50
* Stellantis Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Trainline Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 190 pence
* VF Corp Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $15

>>> Initiation
* 2G Energy Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 91 euros
* Fox Corp Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $95
* Huber + Suhner initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
* Lionsgate Studios Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens
* OEM International Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 225 kronor
* On Holding Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $38
* Paramount Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $14
* Starz Entertainment Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens

>>> Call
* Carlsberg Volume Growth Trails Peers, Cut to Hold at Jefferies
* Huber+Suhner ‘Ticking all the Boxes,’ New Buy at Jefferies
* Renault Raised, Stellantis Cut at Morgan Stanley in EU Autos
* Trainline Cut to Underweight at Barclays on Limited Growth

>>> What to look at today - 14th of Sept 2026

Stocks and futures retreated after major artificial intelligence companies called for a slowdown in the technology’s development, raising concerns about a sector that has powered this year’s rally. Oil rose. MSCI’s Asia Pacific equities index dropped 0.6%, with the Kospi Index — a barometer of AI investment — falling 2.4%. Chipmakers SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. fell, while SoftBank Group Corp. slumped as much as 13% in Tokyo after OpenAI’s Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman said that the company won’t go public this year. Futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index declined 1.2% and those for the S&P 500 Index fell 0.5%. European shares were also set to open lower. Meanwhile, Brent crude rose 3.2% to $107.95 a barrel after Saudi Arabia shut a key oil pipeline following drone attacks and a planned meeting between Iran and Gulf states was postponed. The dollar strengthened and Treasuries held losses from last week’s selloff, which pushed the benchmark 10-year yield closer to 5%. That came after hotter-than-expected US inflation strengthened the case for higher interest rates. Swap traders now see a nearly 90% chance the Federal Reserve will raise its key rate Wednesday. Investors are re-evaluating the AI trade to gauge whether the weekend’s warnings could curb corporate spending and challenge earnings expectations across the supply chain. The shift comes at the start of a pivotal week for markets, with a Fed meeting ahead as rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns and keep borrowing costs elevated. Anthropic PBC Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei said Saturday that the company would introduce additional safeguards, including independent third-party evaluations, and urged the broader industry to slow the development of its most advanced models. OpenAI’s Altman backed the proposal, while xAI’s Elon Musk said “Dario is right.” US President Donald Trump downplayed the growing alarm over AI risks with questions arising over how committed industry leaders will be to slowing development of their most advanced — and lucrative — models amid intense competition from Chinese rivals. The debate adds to scrutiny of the billions being poured into AI and whether earnings can justify soaring infrastructure costs. High-valuation shares remain vulnerable to signs of weaker returns or slower spending, though some investors expect any pullback to be short-lived as demand for computing infrastructure remains strong. In other corners of the market, gold slipped 0.4% to about $4,330 an ounce as growing bets on a Fed rate hike reduced the appeal of the non-yielding metal. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar’s strength climbed 0.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.98%, with attention turning to the Fed policy decision Wednesday. Three decisions, starting with the Fed and followed on successive days by policymakers in the UK and Japan, could reshape the global monetary policy outlook for the rest of 2026 and beyond. With oil emphatically above $100 a barrel again and the Middle East war apparently reigniting, any hope among policymakers for a respite in global price pressures seems faint for now.

Nikkei -0.98% Hang Seng +0.38% CSI -0.70% Kospi -3.49% Shanghai -0.16% Shenzen -0.27%

Eur$ 1.1565 CNH 6.7081 CNY 6.7074 JPY 154.01 GBP 1.3503 CHF 0.8183 RUB 84.5558 TRY 48.6205 WTI$ 102.71 +2.61% Gold 4,332.4 -0.40% BTC 77,580 +0.36% ETH 2,512.6 +0.06%

S&P -0.58% Nasdaq -1.33% EuroStoxx -0.43% FTSE +0.18% Dax -0.38% SMI +0.04%

Macro :
- Anthropic, OpenAI, Google Discuss Creating AI Standards: Info
- From Bailout to Mayfair Rival: Greece Lures Hedge Fund Elite
- Situational Awareness Working With Brokerage Clear Street: FT
- Yuan Gains, Defying Dollar Strength Fueled by Fed Rate-Hike Bets
- Reuters: Okinawa election win may give Tokyo freer hand on military build-up https://t.co/aKnpyPmFxy https://t.co/aKnpyPmFxy
- Situational Awareness Active in Options Market: CNBC’s Faber
- Hedge Funds Show Restraint on Leverage: Equity Insight
- David Tepper makes surprising double bet on AI's biggest bottleneck
- US Convertible Bond Market Hits Record as AI Spending Surges
- Kospi’s Double Top Trouble Is Warning for Global AI: MLIV Chart

Keep an eye on :
- AMZN US : Amazon Halts Operations With 21 Air After Fatal Miami Crash
- Anthropic IPO : Goldman, BofA Vie to Manage Anthropic Staffers’ IPO Millions
- Anthropic IPO : Anthropic Said to Choose Nasdaq for Much-Anticipated IPO Listing
- Anthropic IPO : Anthropic Expects an Operating Profit This Quarter, FT Says (1)
- APO US : Apollo Global Is Said in Talks to Acquire J&J’s Orthopedics Unit
- POST AV : Austrian Post Agrees to Pay €47.8m in Compensation to State
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca Says Breast Cancer Pill Fails in Key Study -- AZN -2%
- AZN LN : Astra-Daiichi’s Enhertu Shows 6-Month Improvement in Median PFS
- BAS GY : BASF Said to Pick Banks to Run IPO of €20 Billion Agrichems Unit
- CAP FP : Capgemini To Sell Government Solutions Unit to ITC Federal
- BAMI IM : Monte Paschi: Bids for Banco BPM, Banca Generali ‘Irrevocable’
- BFF IM : Cerberus Offers to Take Stake in BFF as Bank Weighs Options (1)
- CCBG BB : Belgian Cabinet Said to Agree to Advance 20% Belfius Stake Sale
- BA US : Boeing’s Final Offer to Engineers Union Includes 10% Wage Hike
- IAG LN : Military Jet Flight Plan Triggered Events Leading to Shutdown:FT
- CLS CN : Celestica Rises as Longtime CFO Mandeep Chawla Moves to New Role
- CCH LN : S. Africa Antitrust Regulator Approves Coca-Cola Bottling Merger
- Cohere IPO : Cohere in Talks to Raise up to $3b at $20b Valuation: Globe
- CL US : Colgate-Palmolive Mulls Sale of Some Personal Care Brands: Rtrs
- CVC NA : CVC Faces Shareholder Revolt on Recordati Privatization Deal:FT
- DELL US : Michael Dell’s family office nears deal to take insurance broker private
- DB1 GY : Euronext Open to Merger With Rival Deutsche Börse, CEO Tells FT
- DIE BB : Windshield megadeal could fix Europe’s broken IPO window - FT
- EDF FP : EDF Says Workers Strike at Flamanville Nuclear Plant
- ENX FP : Euronext Open to Merger With Rival Deutsche Börse, CEO Tells FT
- FRMI US : Fermi Co-Founder Neugebauer Says Board Should Review Options
- Firehawk Aerospace IPO : 1789 Capital-Backed Firehawk Seeks Funds at $1.25 Billion Value
- FLTR LN : Michael Burry Sells Entire Position in FanDuel Parent Flutter
- GAMA LN : Waterland No Longer Acting in Concert With Giacom on Gamma Bid
- GNFT FP : will joined SBF120 on the 21st of September
- GSK LN : GSK's Jideytro Hits 94% Response Rate in First-Line NSCLC
- GLEN LN : Mercuria and Glencore Said to Vie for Venezuela Aluminum Deal
- HOT GY : Awarded APA contract for 72MW Sybella solar farm and 52MW/104MWh BESS in Queensland; Terms undisclosed
- HUSQB SS : Husqvarna Gets FCC Conditional Approval for Robotic Mowers
- ISS DC : ISS A/S Announces New Midterm Financial Targets for 2026-2028
- ITP FP : will exit SBF120 on the 21st of September
- IVA FP : will joined SBF120 on the 21st of September
- JNJ US : Apollo Global Is Said in Talks to Acquire J&J’s Orthopedics Unit
- Kalshi IPO : Kalshi Moves to Expand Into US Stock and Commodity Markets
- LULU US : Lululemon’s Newest Bear Sees More Pain Ahead After 81% Rout
- LULU US : Lululemon’s Founder Is Getting Divorced. What It Will Mean for His Fortune. - WSJ
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi CEO Sees Generali Deal as Start of Wider Tie-Up
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi: Bids for Banco BPM, Banca Generali ‘Irrevocable’
- NDX1 GY : Awarded APA contract for 72MW Sybella solar farm and 52MW/104MWh BESS in Queensland; Terms undisclosed
- NOVOB DC : Novo Plans to Change Name by Dropping ‘Nordisk,’ Finans Says
- NVDA US : Musk ‘Highly Confident’ to Launch Nvidia AI Computers in Space
- Open AI IPO : OpenAI’s Altman Voices Support for ‘Pacing’ AI Development
- ORCL US : Larry Ellison cancels $7.5bn Oracle share sale - FT
- REC IM : CVC Faces Shareholder Revolt on Recordati Privatization Deal:FT
- RHM GY : Germany to Approve Small Boxer Batches as Large Orders Languish
- RWE GY : RWE, Masdar Enter Offshore Wind, LNG Supply Deals
- SLB US : Arabian Drilling Signs 2B Riyal Pact for 8 Land Rigs with SLB
- ENR GY : Technip Announces Electrified LNG Solution With Siemens Energy
- SDR LN : Schroders Considers Acquisitions to Grow Wealth Unit: FT
- SPI LN : Spire Share Sale by Bridgemere Breached Rule: Takeover Panel
- STLA US : Unifor, Stellantis Talks Hit Impasse Over Ontario Plant
- STLA US : Stellantis to Invest More Than €1 Billion to Build Van in France
- TE FP : Technip Announces Electrified LNG Solution With Siemens Energy
- TRB LN : Main Capital to Buy Tribal Group Businesses for ~£189.3m
- VRLA FP : will exit SBF120 on the 21st of September
- VSAT US : Space42, Viasat in Pact for $1b Connectivity-Boosting Platform
- WAVE FP : Wavestone s'offre le cabinet de conseil américain Sand Cherry

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Var Energi (J4V TH) +2.8%
  • ISS (QJQ TH) +2.1%
  • RELX (RDEB TH) +2%
  • GTT (9TG TH) +1.8%
  • Repsol (REP TH) +1.7%
    • Oil Jumps as Shutdown of Saudi Pipeline Deepens Energy Crisis
  • Frontline (HF6 TH) +1.6%
  • Neste (NEF TH) +1.4%
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) +1.1%
  • Eni (ENI TH) +1.1%
  • Shell (R6C0 TH) +1.1%
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -2.8%
  • ASML (ASME TH) -2.9%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -3.3%
  • STMicro (SGM TH) -3.3%
  • Nordic Semiconductor (N0S TH) -3.5%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -3.6%
  • AT&S (AUS TH) -3.8%
  • Soitec (SOH1 TH) -4.7%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -4.8%
  • Inficon (IFZ0 TH) -5.6%
    • OpenAI’s Altman Voices Support for ‘Pacing’ AI Development

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Hannover Re (HNR1 TH) +0.6%
  • SAP (SAP TH) +0.6%
  • Siemens (SIE TH) -1.3%
  • RWE (RWE TH) -1.7%
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -2.6%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -3%
    • OpenAI’s Altman Voices Support for ‘Pacing’ AI Development
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -3.6%
MDAX:
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) +1.9%
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) +1.1%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -1.7%
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) -2%
  • Salzgitter (SZG TH) -3.4%
  • SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) -3.6%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -5.1%
SDAX:
  • Verbio SE (VBK TH) +1%
  • Duerr (DUE TH) +0.8%
  • Suedzucker (SZU TH) +0.6%
  • Kontron (KTN TH) -1.5%
  • Cancom (COK TH) -2.9%
  • Schott Pharma AG & Co KGaA (1SXP TH) -3.7%
  • LPKF (LPK TH) -4.7%

>>> Reportedly the leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will gather o

Reportedly the leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will gather on Monday, Sept 14th to sign a deal designed to kick-start the break-up of the United Kingdom - The Telegraph
- At an unprecedented summit in Cardiff, the three first ministers will put pen to paper on a joint declaration demanding the right to hold independence referendums.
- The meeting comes after Andy Burnham suggested to MPs that he would authorise another Scottish referendum if there were a “clear consensus” in favour of one.
Related: GILTS EWU

Source: TradeTheNews.com

>>> Walter Russell Mead on "How America Keeps Winning" — the 300-year playbook

Walter Russell Mead on "How America Keeps Winning" — the 300-year playbook (podcast note)

A note on the latest Invest Like the Best (Sept 8), where geostrategist Walter Russell Mead (WSJ "Global View", Hudson Institute) lays out why he thinks the world ORDER is collapsing while American POWER is not. Framework, not a trade call — but the frame reorganizes how the AI/energy/defense theses fit together.

MEAD'S THESIS IN ONE LINE

"A dynamic country in a collapsing world." The WTO/NATO/UN system is unwinding; the US keeps rising because it is best at riding each new technology wave (now AI) without blowing up internally. China, as a centralized continental power, loses structurally the way Louis XIV, Napoleon, Wilhelmine/Nazi Germany and the USSR all did: "I don't think China has it in it to beat us."

THE FIVE-STEP PLAYBOOK (Dutch → British → American, "UP → UK → US")

  1. Open society at home → innovation clusters (17th-C Dutch: the joint-stock company, public-finance techniques we still use).
  2. Take it global → convert innovation into trade and wealth (~10,000 Dutch ocean-going ships).
  3. Invite rivals into your system → the inclusive order as bait (British free trade + Royal Navy suppressing piracy "for everybody").
  4. Weaponize the interdependence → once a rival is integrated it is dependent, and you can cut it off (1914 Germany starved of grain and rubber). Their integration becomes your kill switch.
  5. Co-opt defeated rivals into pillars → Germany/Japan after 1945. The Russia/China version post-Cold-War failed ("the Wilhelm II path, not Adenauer").

WHY IT MATTERS FOR OUR THEMES

Tech decoupling is not policy noise, it's Step 4 in real time: "renationalization of tech," IP-to-China treated as treason inside firms. Sovereign-AI and export controls are the structural spine, not a headline.

The sharpest caution: AI is "distillable" — cheaper to copy than railroads were. The US lead may be a thinner moat than the capex bulls assume.
Defense: drones make "the tank and the rifle as obsolete as the cavalry charge" — and the US is MOST exposed because it holds the most legacy metal.
Energy read as a security variable: China's solar/coal/hydro build is a drive to escape blockade dependence; Hormuz is the pivot of global stability.

HONEST CAVEATS
Hudson/WSJ hawkish, pro-primacy priors; "the hobbits keep winning" is a story fit to winners (survivorship bias), and a 300-year "recurring pattern" is hard to falsify in real time. He offers NO view on the dollar / reserve status / debt sustainability in this episode — a genuine gap, not a call.

Ask if you want more detailed : analysed note

Laurent Chekroun
Graham Advisors Sàrl, Pfäffikon SZ

FT : Franklin Templeton turns the tide

Franklin Templeton turns the tide


In June, a saga that fuelled a torrent of outflows from Franklin Templeton reached an abrupt denouement.

Ken Leech, former star bond investor at the group’s Western Asset Management fixed-income unit, pleaded guilty to obstructing an investigation into alleged “cherry-picking” of trades for favoured portfolios.

Leech had been charged by US prosecutors with criminal fraud in November 2024 for allegedly orchestrating a $600mn scheme to improperly allocate trades to particular portfolios at Western. With his obstruction plea, he avoided a trial set to start on June 15 and — under an agreement with the US Justice Department — the other charges were dropped.

Franklin had suffered more than $150bn in redemptions from its Western business since Leech was charged in 2024. The group also agreed to a $100mn settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission days before Leech’s plea.

But for the California-based asset management giant, financial wounds aside, the news represented a form of closure on a painful chapter.

“When something like that comes along, your job is to deal with it while also keeping the business moving forward,” Franklin’s chief executive Jenny Johnson said in an interview with the FT. “You try to isolate who’s impacted by it, and then continue to move forward on your strategic priorities.”

While Western’s redemptions have moderated this year, overall Franklin flows have turned consistently positive over the past three quarters. Analysts said questions remained for the wider industry about the sustainability of growth in active asset management as passive competition heaps pressure on fees.

Still, they noted Franklin — one of the world’s largest active investors, with $1.8tn under management — appeared well positioned in an environment where scale has become critical for success.

Analysts are warming to Franklin’s turnaround. “You’ve got an improving story, better on the cost side, the Western headlines going away,” said Ben Budish at Barclays. “Within financials, lots of other stuff has some hair on it, some AI disruptive threat, private credit, whatever it may be, but Franklin doesn’t. It’s one of the improving stories.”