>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Heidelberg Materials (HEI TH) -2.7%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -2.8%
  • Siemens (SIE TH) -2.9%
    • NOTE: Siemens Warns EU’s AI Rules Will Deter Investment in Europe
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -3.3%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -3.3%
MDAX:
  • K+S (SDF TH) +2.7%
  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) +1%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -3.3%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -3.4%
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) -3.6%
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) -3.8%
  • Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC TH) -4%
SDAX:
  • Verbio SE (VBK TH) +7.9%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +2%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) +1.8%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) +1.7%
  • Kontron (KTN TH) -2.2%
  • Tonies SE (TNIE TH) -2.7%
  • SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) -3.1%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) -3.5%
  • Evotec (EVT TH) -3.7%

>>> Quick read — UCG "A New Chapter" deck (20-Apr-26, 33pp)

Quick read — UCG "A New Chapter" deck (20-Apr-26, 33pp) -attached
Outside-in escalation document released independently from the voluntary tender offer. Three-act argument: (1) CBK has operationally underperformed SX7E and UCG in 2021-24 and 2025, with 2025 cost miss (~200m) masked by low LLPs, low integration costs, replica NII (+500m vs plan) and intl loan growth (+24% ex-DE/PL vs +1% DE); (2) Momentum FY28 extrapolates this — ~50% of FY24-28 rev growth is replica-driven, zero integration costs 2026-28, negligible buffers; (3) CBK has re-rated +20pp vs sector since Sept-24 UCG stake, not justified by fundamentals (P/E 2yr-fwd 8.2x = SX7E, premium to UCG 7.8x).
Alt plan = Unlocked standalone + Combination with HVB: incremental +2.0bn pre-tax GOP (0.8 Unlocked + 1.1 Combination 2030+), +1.2bn incr. NP / +25% vs Momentum FY28, +c.10pp RoTE. Rebuts 15k DE job cuts → 7k (2k in combo), and rebuts loss-of-DE-independence → DE becomes Group's #1 country, c.95% local decisions.

BBG IB CHAT
UCG/CBK — "A NEW CHAPTER" | 33-pg roadshow deck 20-Apr

- UCG: CBK "Momentum" = more of the same; lagged SX7E/UCG 21-24 & 25 across Net Rev/RWA, C/I, RoTE
- 2025: ~200m cost miss hidden by lower LLPs (~130m) + lower integration (~100m) + replica NII (+200m) + intl loans +24% vs DE +1%
- Valuation stretched: CBK P/E 2yr-fwd 8.2x = SX7E, premium to UCG 7.8x; +20pp re-rating vs sector since Sept-24 stake — UCG says not fundamentals-backed
- "UNLOCKED" standalone FY28: NetRev/RWA c.8.9 (+1.3pp) / C/I c.40 (-7pp) / RoTE >19 (+5pp) / NP c.5.1bn (+0.6 vs cons)
- "COMBINATION" (HVB+CBK) FY30 Group: NP c.21bn / RoTE >25 / C/I c.30 / Net Rev c.45bn; DE: NP c.8.5bn / RoAC >30 / C/I c.32
- Value creation: +2.0bn pre-tax GOP (0.8 Unlocked + 1.1 Combo 2030+); +1.2bn incr NP / +25% vs Momentum; 3.4bn invest + 0.5bn upfront coverage
- Myth vs Reality: 15k DE jobs → UCG 7k (2k combo); 60% savings non-HR/non-core intl; DE = Group #1 country, c.95% local decisions
- Execution: CBK standalone until 2028; UCG track >100 integrations (Alpha RO <9m)
- Any CBK guidance upgrade on tailwinds shifts BOTH Unlocked & Combination outputs up in parallel — doesn't close the structural gap
- Takeaway: pressure on CBK Board to engage / upgrade Momentum; watch offer document for terms. CBK premium hard to defend if 2026 tailwinds fade

BBG MSG
SUBJECT: UCG/CBK — "A New Chapter" (20-Apr-26): UCG frames alt plan vs Momentum ahead of tender

UniCredit published today a 33-slide outside-in deck titled "A New Chapter", independently from and ahead of its voluntary tender offer on all Commerzbank ordinary shares. Disclaimer: not an MAR-compliant investment recommendation nor an offering document. Below the main elements for the recipient.

1/ DIAGNOSIS — Operating underperformance, overvalued
- CBK lagged SX7E and UCG across Net Rev/RWA, C/I, RoTE in 2021-24 and 2025, with Germany as key drag
- FY24 vs plan: 1.2bn cost miss (25%), 200m fees miss, NII beat from rate tailwinds — i.e. delivery sustained by macro, not transformation
- FY25 vs Momentum: ~200m cost miss offset by ~130m lower LLPs, ~100m lower integration costs (net of tax), intl loan growth +24% vs DE +1%, replica NII +200m vs Momentum (total NII beat ~500m)
- Valuation: P/E 2yr-fwd at 8.2x = SX7E, premium vs UCG 7.8x; +20pp re-rating vs sector since 10-Sept-24 stake disclosure — UCG: not fundamentals-driven

2/ MOMENTUM (consensus FY28)
Net Rev 14.0bn / Costs 7.0bn / NP 4.5bn / C/I 47 / RoTE 15 / Net Rev/RWA 7.6
UCG flags: ~50% of FY24-28 rev growth from replica; zero integration cost 2026-28; marginal overlays (150m as of 4Q25); no further invest planned

3/ COMMERZBANK UNLOCKED (standalone)
FY28: Net Rev/RWA c.8.9 (+1.3pp) / C/I c.40 (-7pp) / RoTE >19 (+5pp) / Net Rev c.13.6bn / Costs c.5.7bn / NP c.5.1bn (+0.6)
FY30 dir.: Net Rev >15bn / Costs <6bn / NP c.6.0bn / C/I c.37 / RoTE c.23
+0.8bn pre-tax GOP / 1.7bn investments (IT, channels, pre-pensioning, reskilling) / 0.5bn upfront coverage
Six levers: Refocus DE-Mittelstand-PL / Redesign intl network / Invest+efficiencies / Capital discipline / Client journey upgrade / Tech-AI transformation

4/ COMBINATION (HVB + CBK)
FY30 DE: Net Rev/RWA >9 / C/I c.32 / RoAC >30 / Net Rev >18bn / Costs <6bn / NP c.8.5bn
FY30 Group: Net Rev/RWA >9 / C/I c.30 / RoTE >25 / Net Rev c.45bn / Costs <14.5bn / NP c.21bn
Incremental: +1.1bn annual pre-tax value 2030+ / 1.6bn addl invest
Perimeter: >600 branches, c.8% DE loan mkt share, 14+1 federated banks, >35m clients, >130bn mcap

5/ MYTH vs REALITY — UCG rebuttals
- "15,000 DE job losses" (Werning, 17-Mar) → c.7k FTE reduction DE, 2k in combo case; 60% savings from non-HR/non-core intl network, 40% non-business central functions
- "No value creation" (CFO Schmitt, 15-Apr) → +1.2bn incr NP / +25% vs Momentum, +c.10pp RoTE
- "Loss of DE independence" → DE = Group's #1 country by NP, c.95% local decisions, open governance
- "Execution risk" → CBK standalone until 2028; UCG track >100 integrations, Alpha RO <9 months
- "Intl network can't be improved" → UCG 2021-25: -64% costs, +16% rev, -29% avg RWA; 2x CBK trade finance with leaner footprint; only c.15% of DE flows route via CBK's Africa/LatAm presence

6/ TRADE / POSITIONING
- Escalation toolkit ahead of tender — CBK Board under pressure to engage or upgrade Momentum
- Important mechanics: any CBK guidance upgrade on tailwinds shifts BOTH Unlocked and Combination outputs up in parallel — does not close UCG's structural-gap argument
- CBK premium vs SX7E/UCG increasingly exposed if 2026 delivery disappoints on replica / intl growth
- Watch: offer document for terms & exchange ratio, CBK response, BaFin/ECB positioning, German political reaction

FT : Oil prices set for more turbulence in months ahead, warns Gunvor chief

Oil prices set for more turbulence in months ahead, warns Gunvor chief
World’s fourth-largest independent crude trader says markets may be ‘very choppy’ between April and June

Oil markets are facing more turbulence as tensions in the Middle East collide with a seasonal slowdown in demand, raising the prospect of further sharp and unpredictable swings in crude prices, the head of trading house Gunvor warned. 

Gary Pedersen, who took over the world’s fourth-largest independent oil trader following a management buyout in December, said markets could become even more volatile during April to June, when demand dips between winter and the summer driving season. 

“It is a little bit of a more challenging, softer period that we need to be careful of. Frankly, it could be very choppy,” he said in an interview with the FT, with prices potentially driven more by headlines than underlying supply and demand. 

The International Energy Agency has forecast that demand will drop by 1.5mn barrels a day (b/d) in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the Covid-19 pandemic. Opec, the group of oil producers, is forecasting a more modest 500,000 b/d fall. 

Gunvor said last week it had already generated more than $1.6bn in gross profits in the first three months of this year, matching the figure for the whole of 2025. 

Pedersen said the company had prepared for the Iran conflict by drawing on lessons from recent crises, when it was caught out by price rises and forced to shut down trading positions, exposing weaknesses in its risk management. 

“We leveraged a lot of experience from the team that was here in 2022,” he said, referring to the period after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent gas prices soaring. 

Gunvor reviewed all of its positions and risk exposures ahead of the war and has traded throughout the conflict, including buying significant volumes released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “We have not had any liquidity constraints whatsoever. We have been able to trade, stay liquid and focus on all the arbitrage movements.”

A key part of that strategy has been a focus on moving physical oil rather than on oil derivatives. Pedersen said he wanted traders to minimise what he called “stress risk”, or the danger of being caught out by extreme and unpredictable price moves. “Stress is what turns the lights out, so we want to make sure we’re constantly measuring stress risk every day,” he said. 

While oil futures have regularly sold off sharply — which Pedersen attributed in part to a “masterclass” in political messaging from US President Donald Trump — he said physical crude remained tight as buyers sought to replace disrupted supplies from the Gulf.

Gunvor is emerging from a turbulent period, in which tensions with Washington — which described the group as a “Kremlin puppet” and blocked it from acquiring overseas assets from Russia’s Lukoil — triggered a crisis that culminated in the departure of its owner Torbjörn Törnqvist and the subsequent management buyout.

The US, where the company now has more than $4bn of assets, is the main focus and accounts for roughly a third of Gunvor’s trading. “We are focused on how we are going to grow our US footprint. We still very much like [US] gas and crude,” said Pedersen. 

He also signalled interest in acquiring refining assets, arguing that years of capacity closures in western markets had created an opportunity. “With demand growth coming, refining looks very positive,” he said.

Pedersen is seeking to reshape Gunvor into a more data-driven trading organisation, drawing on his experience at hedge fund Millennium. “I come from a much more analytical background,” he said. “I like to measure as many things as we can.”

The buyout left Pedersen and his partners owing several billion dollars to Törnqvist, given his 86 per cent stake in the $6bn company at the time of his exit, to be repaid over the next decade.

Executives insisted the arrangement left the former owner with no influence over the company. “There is zero provision in any agreements which would allow him to step in,” said Gia Mai, Gunvor’s chief operating officer. 

“Obviously, if we had the ability to have paid him out in full from day one, we would have done,” said Jeff Webster, the company’s chief financial officer. “But he set it up in a way that it cuts him out of the business entirely, but also gives us the best chance to repay what is owed in a way the company can prosper at the same time,” he added. 

Pedersen said his priority was to ensure Gunvor performed consistently across market cycles. “We want to make money in good and bad markets,” he said.

CrunchBase : Sector Snapshot: Autonomous Vehicle Funding More Than Triples In 20

Sector Snapshot: Autonomous Vehicle Funding More Than Triples In 2026 To Hit Record Amount

Funding to autonomous vehicle startups has seen a massive resurgence in 2026, more than tripling so far this year compared to all of 2025 globally, Crunchbase data shows.

Several multibillion-dollar megadeals drove the spike in first-quarter investment. That signals investors aren’t just paying for research anymore, but betting on companies that are ready to scale up and put their AI technology into actual cars people can buy or hail.

So far in 2026, we’ve seen a shift to a small number of autonomous vehicle companies capturing a disproportionate share of global capital, with a handful of giants, including Waymo, Shield AI and Wayve, getting the lion’s share of funding.

The broad trend: It appears that investors are no longer spreading small bets across dozens of startups. Instead, they are pouring billions into the three or four players they believe will own the market. And while North America remains the largest hub for overall funding volume, the Asia-Pacific region — specifically China — is seeing the fastest growth in deployment. Chinese startups are also raising some of the largest rounds in the space.

The numbers: Autonomous vehicle startups raised a record $21.4 billion across 34 deals through April 15, per Crunchbase data. That’s up a staggering 262.17% compared to the $5.9 billion raised across 99 investments globally in all of 2025. It’s also about 77% higher than the $12.1 billion raised across 127 deals in 2024.


Noteworthy deals
Exactly three-fourths of the $21.4 billion raised in 2026 thus far is attributable to Mountain View, California-based Waymo’s $16 billion Series D raised in February. Alphabet, Dragoneer Investment Group, DST Global and Sequoia Capital co-led the financing, which was raised at a staggering $126 billion valuation.

But it wasn’t the only outsized round.

San Diego-based Shield AI landed a $2 billion Series G round co-led by Advent International and JP Morgan Chase. Its valuation jumped to $12.7 billion.

And London-based Wayve raised a $1.3 billion Series D round co-led by Balderton Capital, Eclipse and SoftBank Vision Fund, achieving an $8.6 billion valuation.

Interestingly in 2025, three of the four largest autonomous vehicle rounds were raised by Chinese companies: an $897.7 million Series C by DeepBlue Auto; a $600 million Series D by Neolix, and $527.8 million by Zhuoyu Technology.

IPO outlook
We didn’t see any IPOs in the space in 2025, but some are on the horizon for this year.

Beijing-based Momenta confidentially filed for a Hong Kong IPO in March. Backed by General Motors, Tencent and Mercedes-Benz, it is seeking a valuation above $14 billion.

Autonomous A2Z secured $24.7 million in pre-IPO funding in March and is expected to list later this year as it expands its AI-led logistics projects.

Because Waymo is a subsidiary of Alphabet (Google), it doesn’t need to go public for cash, but industry observers are increasingly discussing a potential spinoff. With a $126 billion valuation, it would instantly become one of the most valuable transportation companies in the world if it hit the public market.

CrunchBase : The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: Transportation And Biotech Ta

The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: Transportation And Biotech Take The Lead

Transportation and biotech were leading themes among this week’s largest U.S. funding recipients. This includes the week’s largest round, a $650 million financing for electric pickup truck maker Slate Auto. Other sizable investments went to spaces including drug development, autonomous public transit and software engineering.

1. Slate Auto, $650M, electric vehicles: Troy, Michigan-based Slate Auto, a developer of lower-cost electric pickup trucks that can be customized as SUVs, raised $650 million in Series C funding led by TWG Global. The Jeff Bezos-backed company said it plans to deliver its first vehicles to customers later this year.

2. Beeline Medicines, $300M, biotech: Beeline Medicines, a Boston-based developer of precision therapies for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, emerged from stealth with $300 million in Series A funding led by Bain Capital. The company’s initial portfolio includes five programs licensed from Bristol Myers Squibb.

3. Glydways, $170M, autonomous transportation: Glydways, a developer of personal autonomous pods designed to operate on dedicated lanes, closed on $170 million in Series C funding. Suzuki Motor, ACS Group and Khosla Ventures led the financing for the San Francisco-based company, which is launching operational pilots in three cities this year.

4. Factory, $150M, AI software development: Factory, a startup focused on bringing autonomy to software engineering, secured $150 million in a Series C round led by Khosla Ventures. The financing set a $1.5 billion valuation for the 3-year-old, San Francisco-based company.

5. Terremoto Biosciences, $108M, biotech: South San Francisco, California-based Terremoto Biosciences, a developer of small molecule medicines for cancer and rare diseases, raised $108 million in Series C funding from backers including RA Capital Management, Deep Track Capital, Osage University Partners and BeOne Medicines.

6. (tied) Zum, $100M, student transportation: Zum, a provider of a platform for optimizing K-12 student transportation, secured $100 million in new funding from TPG. Founded in 2015, Redwood City, California-based Zum has raised about $500 million in known funding to date, per Crunchbase data.

6. (tied) Neomorph, $100M, biotech: Neomorph, a developer of cancer therapeutics, closed on $100 million in Series B funding to support clinical trials. Deerfield led the financing for the San Diego-based company.

6. (tied) Slash, $100M, fintech: San Francisco-based Slash, a business banking platform, picked up $100 million in a Series C round led by Ribbit Capital, Khosla Ventures and Goodwater Capital. The financing set a $1.4 billion valuation for the company, which said it surpassed $250 million in annualized revenue in 2025.

9. nEye, $80M, semiconductors: nEye, a developer of integrated optical interconnects for data center connectivity, raised $80 million in Series C financing led by Sutter Hill Ventures. Founded in 2020, Silicon Valley-based nEye has raised $152 million in funding to date.

10. Turion Space, $75M, space tech: Irvine, California-based Turion Space, a provider of an orbital intelligence and operations platform, secured over $75 million in a Series B round led by Washington Harbour Partners.

The Information : China’s 10 Most Important Chip Design Firms

China’s 10 Most Important Chip Design Firms

The Takeaway
  • Chinese AI chip firms expect revenue to surge to $82 billion by 2028.
  • Chinese chipmakers target AI inference, not training, to rival Nvidia.
  • Local firms develop own HBM and improve software for Nvidia compatibility.


Ask Washington’s most plugged-in politicians and lobbyists which Chinese chip company is the biggest threat to Nvidia and you’ll hear one name: Huawei Technologies. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly cited Huawei’s rising prominence in both private meetings with lawmakers and public forums. Huawei has become shorthand for China’s semiconductor ambitions.

But that misses the bigger picture. China has more than 10 companies actively designing and shipping AI chips today, ranging from state-backed research institutions with decades of chip expertise to startups founded by engineers who spent years at Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Intel before coming home to build something of their own.

While state-owned businesses were early buyers of Chinese AI chips, the local chipmakers are now winning orders from tech giants including Alibaba Group, ByteDance and Tencent. Those customers bring more consistent revenue for the chip firms and also send in their own engineers to help improve the chip software.

The results show up in market share data. Research firm Bernstein estimates that Nvidia and Huawei each held about 40% of China’s AI chip market in 2025, but Nvidia’s share is expected to drop to roughly 8% this year as Chinese firms capture most new sales. Local AI chip companies’ revenue is expected to surge from about $2 billion in 2023 to $82 billion in 2028, according to the research firm.


As the table above demonstrates, more than half of the Chinese chip firms are publicly traded companies, ranging from Cambricon Technologies to Moore Threads to MetaX. Others—such as T-Head and Kunlunxin, owned by Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Baidu, respectively—are planning to go public.

None of these firms is trying to beat Nvidia by developing chips technically on a par with those of the U.S. giant for training AI models, according to their latest chip road map. Instead, their aim is to develop chips of comparable quality for the AI inference process, in which models answer questions, generate content and power applications.

Even there, Chinese models lag behind Nvidia’s in individual chip performance. But the Chinese firms are trying to compensate for that by putting more chips into clusters and relying on networking technology to handle millions of inference requests reliably and cheaply. On that measure, the distance between China’s chips and Nvidia’s is a lot shorter than it appears.

All the companies have had to overcome two hurdles. One is a shortage of local chip manufacturing capacity. The second is the need to improve their software so it can run smoothly on the code AI developers created for Nvidia’s CUDA software platform, as most of them still write for CUDA.

The companies have tackled the manufacturing problem in different ways. Cambricon and Hygon Information Technology locked in domestic chipmaking capacity early enough to secure a production pipeline latecomers are now scrambling to match, according to two people familiar with the production plan. Beijing has stepped in to work with chipmakers on coordinating allocation of chipmaking capacity, according to two other people familiar with the situation.

In contrast, Shanghai-based chip designer Iluvatar CoreX makes its chips at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., according to two people familiar with their production arrangement. Baidu’s chip unit, Kunlunxin, used to make chips at Samsung.

But both TSMC and Samsung use equipment that relies on U.S. technology, which means they’re subject to U.S. export controls capping the power of chips made for the Chinese market. As a result, Kunlunxin has been in talks with Chinese chipmakers to produce their chips, according to two people with direct knowledge of the talks.

On the software side, companies like Cambricon and Iluvatar have made it a priority for their chips to run code originally written for Nvidia so developers can switch with less rewriting.

The chip designers tied to cloud giants have a deeper structural edge. Alibaba’s T-Head and Baidu’s Kunlunxin design chips aimed to meet their parent companies’ most demanding workloads, tuning hardware, compilers and software together from the start. Since early 2025, both companies have been using their own chips to train some AI models in-house.

Chinese AI chip companies are also trying to better understand what developers actually need in a chip. Huawei’s Ascend 950PR, launched this year, for instance, comes in several versions, each emphasizing different capabilities depending on the workload, showing that the company is listening to customers closely enough to build in options, according to two people familiar with the situation.

The growth of local AI chip development is also rippling through the Chinese chip supply chain, long considered an underdog. For instance, Chinese chipmakers have long lacked access to the most advanced high-bandwidth memory, the specialized memory used in AI chips. U.S. export controls banned sales of advanced HBM to Chinese buyers in 2024.

But Chinese firms are now designing and making their own HBM. Chinese chip designers such as Huawei and Iluvatar are now testing locally produced advanced memory, HBM3, pairing it with their own AI processors, according to three people familiar with the situation.

Locally made AI chips are beginning to have an impact on the market. Huawei tunes its Ascend 950PR specifically for inference workloads, and Chinese AI developer DeepSeek worked directly with the company to ensure the latest DeepSeek models ran on Huawei hardware from launch day.

Most leading Chinese chips now match or outperform the H20, the neutered chip Nvidia engineered specifically for the Chinese market under U.S. export controls. Newly listed chip designers Iluvatar and Biren Technology are working on processors designed to rival the H200, the most powerful chip Washington currently permits Nvidia to sell to Chinese buyers.

The Information : Polymarket in Talks to Raise Money at About $15 Billion Valuat

Polymarket in Talks to Raise Money at About $15 Billion Valuation

The Takeaway
  • Polymarket in talks to raise $400 million in new funding at about a $15 billion valuation.
  • Investment would add to $600 million from NYSE parent in March.
  • Company recently launched U.S. platform.

The predictions site Polymarket is talking to investors about raising $400 million in funding at a valuation of about $15 billion including the new money, according to two people familiar with the talks.

The financing would add to the $600 million already invested in the funding round by Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, which the exchange announced last month without disclosing the valuation. It’s looking to add additional strategic investors beyond Intercontinental Exchange to the round, which could total $1 billion, said a second person.

The round hasn’t closed and the terms could change.

A valuation at that level would diverge significantly from that of its rival Kalshi. Last month, Kalshi was finalizing raising $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation led by Coatue Management. Still, Polymarket’s new valuation would be more than 66% higher than its October round last year, when it raised $1 billion from Intercontinental Exchange at a $9 billion valuation after the investment.

One likely reason for the valuation difference: Polymarket, the biggest prediction market outside the U.S., only recently launched a platform to serve U.S. customers and has just started to charge fees to generate revenue. Kalshi, in contrast, has been serving U.S. customers and its annualized revenue has risen to $1.5 billion, Bloomberg reported last month.

Unlike Kalshi, the six-year-old startup settles trades on a blockchain. For more than a year it has discussed issuing a token—a digital asset commonly issued by crypto projects. It also plans to eventually pursue an initial public offering, according to people familiar with its thinking.

The company’s fundraising discussions follow a spike in activity on prediction markets, which became popular ways to bet on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential race. Both Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to purchase event contracts—derivatives that pay out to investors who guess event outcomes correctly—for less than $1. Users pay for the contracts up front; if they guess correctly, they make the money back plus a profit.

The low stakes and broad range of bets on events, from the March Madness winner to outcomes of the U.S. invasion of Iran to the timing of AI model releases, have made them a popular alternative to sports betting and stock trading.

The timing of some well-placed bets have raised concerns about insider trading, though. Earlier this year, OpenAI fired an employee for trading on prediction markets using confidential company information. More recently, amid news reports pointing to winning bets related to the U.S.-Iran war, bi-partisan lawmakers have proposed legislation to ban federally elected officials and government employees from using insider information to bet on prediction market contracts.

Polymarket has already had a run-in with regulators: In 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates derivatives trading, banned it from accepting U.S.-based trades because it hadn’t received regulatory approval to do so. After Polymarket last year bought a U.S.-registered derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, it received approval to launch a new platform for U.S. users.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi have taken steps to crack down on insider trading.

Kalshi, meanwhile, is battling lawsuits against several state regulators, which are seeking to stop it from offering sports bettings, a major source of tax revenue for some states. Kalshi has said the charges are meritless and that it is regulated by federal regulator, the CFTC.

WSJ : Big Oil Plows Billions Into Far-Flung Drilling Sites to Escape Iran Turmoi

Big Oil Plows Billions Into Far-Flung Drilling Sites to Escape Iran Turmoil
Exxon, Chevron and others turn to Africa and South America for next generation of prospects

Energy companies are accelerating searches for new oil-and-gas prospects outside the Middle East amid war and high prices.
Exxon Mobil outlined a plan for up to $24 billion in Nigeria; Chevron expanded its footprint in Venezuela.
The shift aims to diversify portfolios and spread risk, with Wood Mackenzie estimating $120 billion in exploration value.

Exxon Mobil XOM -3.65%decrease; red down pointing triangle, Chevron CVX -2.21%decrease; red down pointing triangle and other energy companies are speeding up their searches for new oil-and-gas prospects—far away from the perils of the war in the Middle East.

Exxon recently outlined a potential plan to pump up to $24 billion into Nigeria’s deep-water oil fields, while Chevron expanded its footprint in Venezuela. BP bought stakes in oil blocks off the coast of Namibia, and TotalEnergies TTE -5.25%decrease; red down pointing triangle signed an exploration deal with Turkey. Major oil companies could together create $120 billion in value from their exploration ventures in coming years, the energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie estimated Thursday.

Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure and a shipping bottleneck in the Persian Gulf region have sparked a global scramble for oil and lopped off billions of dollars in revenue for some Western oil companies. But the surge in energy prices is providing the oil industry with a windfall of cash that is expected to help it venture into territories previously out of reach or abandoned years ago. The influx comes after many drillers cut spending on exploration to return more cash to shareholders.

“Never underestimate the romance of upstream people looking at opportunities. They say, ‘Boy, wouldn’t it be great if we could do this or that,’” said Edward Chow, a nonresident senior associate at the Center for Strategic & International Studies and a former Chevron executive. “Now, you’ve got the cash to do it.”

During a call Thursday with executives from Exxon, Chevron and other oil companies, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum urged them to keep bolstering oil output to counter surging prices ahead of a looming supply shortfall.

U.S. oil futures are trading near $88 a barrel, above the mid-$60 range where they were hovering before the war. Prices plunged Friday after President Trump and Iranian officials said the Strait of Hormuz had reopened. Iran later said the strait was closed again.

The oil companies want to maximize their production to take advantage of the higher prices—but within the confines of their current budgets and without taking on the added costs of making major investments, people familiar with the matter said.

Combined, major oil companies spent an average of $19 billion on global exploration each year from 2021 to 2025, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Energy executives are also focused on a longer-term mission: finding enough oil and gas to fuel their profits into the 2030s, some of the people said. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil-and-gas chokepoint between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, has trapped 20% of the world’s daily diet of oil and liquefied natural gas.

Some Western oil companies with operations in the Middle East have taken significant hits. Exxon has said the war curtailed its global oil-and-gas production by 6% in the first quarter. The company is poised to lose about $5 billion in revenue a year after suffering damage at natural-gas facilities in Qatar. Its partner QatarEnergy has estimated that repairs could take up to five years.

For now, the oil-and-gas sector is expected to turn its attention away from the Persian Gulf. A few days before the war began, Chevron said it was entering exclusive talks with Iraq’s Basra Oil for a stake in one of the world’s largest onshore oil fields, West Qurna 2. But analysts said it is doubtful that Western oil companies would sign any major deals in the Middle East until the conflict is fully resolved.

Instead, the economic fallout from the war is driving the companies to diversify their portfolios—and spread out the risk of disruption across the globe. Energy companies are also trying to boost their reserves. The world’s oil producers need to find enough new resources to add 300 billion barrels to their collective reserves to meet global demand through 2050, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies are looking closely at new drilling prospects in Africa, South America and the eastern Mediterranean that could refill their reserves for the next decade.

This past week, Exxon took a step toward drilling off the coast of Greece. In recent months, it signed preliminary exploration agreements with Iraq, Turkey and Gabon. In Trinidad and Tobago, the company is conducting seismic work to find oil and gas in the country’s deep waters. Exxon’s international spending came in at about $9 billion last year, including its existing developments.

Meanwhile, Chevron has boosted its exploration team, including through last year’s $53 billion acquisition of Hess. It has brought a former TotalEnergies executive, Kevin McLachlan, on board as its vice president of exploration. Chevron has earmarked $7 billion in spending on offshore developments around the world this year.

In Venezuela, where Chevron is the largest foreign investor, the company agreed this past week to an asset-swap deal that would boost its position in regions rich in viscous heavy oil that U.S. refineries favor. The state-run Petróleos de Venezuela sold the company an additional 13% working interest in one of its joint ventures in Venezuela. Another project, in which Chevron has a 30% stake, was granted development rights to a neighboring area.

At an energy conference in Houston last month, Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth said the country’s recent move to change laws that govern fossil-fuel deals is a good first step.

“There’s still things that I believe need to happen to encourage investment at the scale that people would like to see,” Wirth said. He added that operators in Venezuela need more durable and predictable dispute resolution, among other concerns.

The White House is pushing for more U.S. oil companies to plow money into Venezuela’s dilapidated oil sector. Most drillers are cautious about investing there after years of mismanagement.

Chevron is set to conduct exploration work later this year in Egypt, where it holds 9 million net acres in the Mediterranean Sea, and it recently confirmed substantial oil discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico. Earlier this year, it won four offshore leases near Greece, as well as a block award in oil-rich Libya.

Oil prices are expected to remain elevated over the coming months even if the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz clears.

“Sustained high oil prices are the best friend of exploration,” said Schreiner Parker, an analyst at Rystad Energy, a research and consulting firm. “In the medium to longer term, there will be a risk premium attached to every barrel coming out of the Persian Gulf that will push people into frontier exploration.”

WSJ : Marc Benioff Says the Software Bears Are All Wrong About Salesforce

Marc Benioff Says the Software Bears Are All Wrong About Salesforce
‘People think we have our back against the wall,’ but customers aren’t replacing its offerings with AI, CEO says

Salesforce plans to unveil a new AI platform, Agent Albert, by year-end, aiming to make its software more valuable amid AI disruption fears.
Its existing AI product, Agentforce, is used by 23,000 customers, but early reviews were tepid due to data preparation issues.
Salesforce invested over $300 million in Anthropic. Shares jumped after the company announced an integration with Claude Cowork in February.

Marc Benioff has some problems.

His enterprise software company, Salesforce CRM 0.51%increase; green up pointing triangle, is the biggest name in a category that Wall Street thinks may get decimated by artificial intelligence.

Its business model has centered on selling software to large companies on a per-employee basis—but many of those firms are expected to downsize as AI agents become increasingly proficient at performing real-world tasks.

It is a daunting double-bind, and it isn’t even the worst-case scenario. Salesforce’s stock is down a mere 28% year to date. The hardest-hit software-as-a-service companies are down about twice that much on similar fears.

But Benioff thinks the bears have it wrong—about the “SaaSpocalypse” thesis generally, and especially about Salesforce. AI, he says, is making Salesforce more valuable to its customers than ever. The leading AI labs couldn’t replace what Salesforce offers even if they wanted to, and they would rather partner with him—for now, anyway. Nor could customers easily “vibe-code” their own sales-management software that could compete with Salesforce on security, compliance and other vital features.

“People think we have our back against the wall when in fact the opportunity has never been greater,” Benioff said in an interview.

An early investor in Anthropic, Salesforce has been developing and pushing its own AI tools for years. By the end of this year, it plans to unveil a new AI platform that automatically studies its users and takes actions on their behalf. Code-named Agent Albert, it is the culmination of an effort that began three years ago, when Benioff, galvanized by the debut of ChatGPT, instituted a standing Saturday meeting to accelerate Salesforce’s AI efforts.

An earlier flagship product of that push, Agentforce, has been somewhat slow to gain traction. Launched in late 2024, it is used by 23,000 customers out of the total base of 150,000 to build custom autonomous agents for use in workflows. Salesforce’s yearly revenue growth, at around 10%, is down somewhat from recent years.

There are signs its most important constituency is beginning to buy what Benioff is selling. Business customers spending big on AI have increased their average median spend on Salesforce in the past three months by 3%, according to data from the venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. That is better than Zoom, Dropbox and Adobe although worse than Canva, Cloudflare, Docusign and others.

Mike Kimbarovsky, a partner at Salesforce investor Chicago Capital, which recently sold shares in the company, said he has been impressed with some of its recent moves, such as deepening its integration with Anthropic’s models and experimenting with new pricing structures.

But what Salesforce really needs, he said, is positive word-of-mouth from clients talking up the value they derive from its AI products. “They need to show revolutionary jumps,” he said.


Benioff has said Salesforce was destined to be an AI-first company as far back as 2014, when it launched its AI research unit. Still, it was caught flat-footed by the arrival of high-functioning chatbots in the form of ChatGPT in late 2022.

Benioff responded quickly. In early 2023, he held a three-day meeting at Salesforce Tower in downtown San Francisco with roughly 40 executives and created an internal chat group called “AI at Salesforce.” The goal: Rewriting the annual plan to make room for AI in the company’s core businesses.

Benioff and other executives spent hours every Saturday for months working on the pivot, said Steve Fisher, president and chief product officer.

The arrival of Agentforce the following year gave Salesforce a way to tap in to rising enterprise interest in AI. It pitched customers on using the product, powered by models from OpenAI, Anthropic and other providers, to create agents that could handle customer-service tickets, qualify leads ahead of sales meetings and other tasks.

But early reviews were tepid. Customers complained of having to spend half their time preparing data so the AI could understand it, limiting the platform’s effectiveness. To help fix the problems, Salesforce built a layer into its tech stack that automatically pulls in customer data from external sources, and it purchased a string of companies that include firms specializing in data management and AI-powered sales.

At education company Pearson, agents now autonomously handle queries about order statuses, refunds and lost access codes for its customers. This has increased the percentage of customer questions that don’t involve human interaction by 40%, said Gabriele Bauman, a vice president at Pearson.

Shree Reddy, PenFed Credit Union executive vice president, said the company deployed an Agentforce agent to help its employees reset passwords and unlock accounts, reducing total IT tickets created by 40%.

Where Agentforce has been lacking is in addressing complex customer problems or those that require a human touch. David Walmsley, chief digital and technology officer at Pandora jewelry, said Agentforce hasn’t been able to reliably recommend products on its own based on the vague context that customers share through its website such as “my wife likes dogs; what should I buy her?”

Another timely action that Benioff took in early 2023: investing in Anthropic’s series C venture-funding round. Beginning with that deal, Benioff said Salesforce has invested more than $300 million into the company, which is considering an initial public offering as soon as this year. Anthropic is currently valued at $380 billion.

Potentially more important to Salesforce than the value of its stake is the relationship. Anthropic makes a practice of partnering with sector-leading companies for product announcements, which can otherwise spook markets into punishing companies seen as standing to be affected. In February, when the two companies announced that the new version of Claude Cowork would integrate with Salesforce apps, Salesforce’s shares jumped 4 %.

Salesforce also uses OpenAI models for Agentforce, and OpenAI, like Anthropic, uses the Salesforce-owned workplace app Slack, which Salesforce is making into a primary interface for its AI tools. Salesforce would have invested in OpenAI, but the startup’s initial contract with Microsoft prohibited such a deal, Benioff said.

Arguing against the idea that Salesforce’s customers could use Claude Code or OpenAI’s alternative, Codex, to vibe code replacements for Salesforce, Benioff said their needs around brand safety, data security and industry-specific compliance make that risky, and Salesforce’s deep experience in those areas is indispensable.

Agents created within Agentforce are constrained by custom business rules that Salesforce calls “scaffolding.” For instance, when the recruiting firm Adecco uses Agentforce agents to screen candidates, they are automatically trained to follow all of its compliance requirements. A human recruiter is still significantly involved in the hiring process, the company said.

In a note to clients, Stifel investment analysts J. Parker Lane and Jack McShane echoed this logic, noting that agent operations “are occurring in high-stakes customer-interaction environments.”

“While the market is noisy with startups, Salesforce is winning deals because CIOs and CTOs prefer a unified platform that integrates agents, actions, data, and workflows,” they added.

However much customers might warm to Agentforce and the new Agent Albert, it doesn’t do Salesforce much good if it is charging by the seat while customers use AI to do more work with fewer employees.

Nearly a year ago, the company launched a hybrid pricing model in which companies can still pay for “seat” licenses for its products but pay more for Agentforce based on consumption. The company says it prices per action taken by its agents, and it also offers a license agreement that enables customers to go “wall to wall.”

Looking for a new way to quantify the value its agents create for customers, it introduced a tracking metric this year it calls an Agentic Work Unit, which it says measures the conversion of generative AI capabilities into tangible results like resolving customer cases or updating records.

In its latest quarterly earnings report, Salesforce said it had processed 2.4 billion AWUs, increasing 57% quarter-over-quarter, the first time it reported the figure.