TheChek News Flow

- Expects further bank deregulation, with liquidity requirements likely next; warns cumulative easing of capital, liquidity and supervision is “unwise” and could make bank failures more likely or more severe over coming years.

- Largest-bank capital requirements reduced ~6% in aggregate across recent/proposed actions, equal to ~$60B less loss-absorbing capital for GSIBs that hold ~60% of U.S. banking-sector assets.

- Supervisory intensity is already falling: Matters Requiring Attention for the largest banks were roughly half 2024 levels by end-2025, while the number of large banks deemed “well-managed” under weaker rules doubled from end-2024 to the latest observation.

- Near-term deregulation “sugar high” is showing up in market activity and shareholder returns: bank buybacks rose 66% from end-2024 to end-2025, with ~$65-66B in buybacks in the first two quarters of this year; executive compensation rose 18% over the period.

- argues lower capital is not necessarily translating into more lending; banks are using expected capital relief to return capital to shareholders, while reduced leverage constraints may encourage more RWA compression similar to Europe.

- Bank/non-bank linkages are a growing systemic risk: bank credit commitments to other financial entities reached >$2.6T in 2H25, raising concern that stress or fire sales in non-banks could hit bank portfolios and broader credit conditions.

- Private credit risks are “meaningful but manageable”: rapid growth, more retail/high-net-worth exposure, rising redemptions over the last 18 months, opacity and software-credit stress are concerns; larger spillover risk is psychological contagion causing a broader credit pullback.

- AI/data-center financing has shifted dramatically over the last 18 months from hyperscaler self-funding toward bank loans, SPVs, private credit and REIT structures; Barr says total leverage is hard to measure and flags chip depreciation assumptions shifting from ~3 years to ~5 years as a sign investors may be worried demand will not meet optimism.

- Stablecoin regulation via the GENIUS Act is better than no framework but has gaps; Barr flags reserve-asset repo language that could allow Bitcoin or foreign currency instead of dollars, plus affiliation risks with less-regulated entities as issues regulators must “button down.”

GRAHAM ADVISORS - INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH

ADA 2026 SCORECARD: OBESITY/INCRETIN-AMYLIN FACE-OFF LLY vs NVO vs ZEAL - 7 JUN 2026

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QUICK SCAN (cross-trial, indicative only - read within population)

- Post hoc analyses from SELECT, STEP, ESSENCE, and OASIS 4 explored semaglutide across obstructive sleep apnea, asthma-related adverse outcomes, blood pressure, liver health, cardiometabolic risk factors, and other obesity-related complications.

- SELECT post hoc analyses found semaglutide 2.4 mg was associated with lower incidence of obstructive sleep apnea and lower asthma-related adverse outcomes versus placebo.

- In pooled STEP trial data, semaglutide 2.4 mg was associated with improvements in systolic and diastolic blood pressure versus placebo from baseline to week 68.

- In ESSENCE part 1 and STEP 1, semaglutide 2.4 mg was associated with improvements in cardiometabolic and liver health parameters, including fatty liver index scores.

- OASIS 4 post hoc analysis found semaglutide tablets 25 mg had similar or greater cardiometabolic improvements in overweight/obesity class I versus obesity class II/III at week 64.

- TRIUMPH-1 met primary endpoints at 80 weeks; participants on retatrutide 12 mg lost an average of 70.3 lbs (28.3%), with 65.3% achieving BMI below 30.- In TRIUMPH-1, retatrutide reduced knee osteoarthritis pain by up to 4.3 points and obstructive sleep apnea severity by up to 36.1 events per hour.

- TRANSCEND-T2D-1 met the primary and all key secondary endpoints at 40 weeks; retatrutide reduced A1C by up to 2.0% and weight by up to 36.6 lbs (16.8%), with up to 46% achieving A1C below 5.7%.

Related ( AVGO ISRG EW GME CRH TSM ACN AMD AAPL NVDA JPM LLY NTRA GS STM MSFT MDLN RAGSX OPENAI.IPO CRH.UK 2330.TW STM.FR )

* Cover Story:

-Chip stocks, once seen as a gritty sector akin to cyclical commodities, have transformed dramatically due to artificial intelligence, becoming central to technology and market dynamics. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index soared 80% since late March, raising concerns of a potential market bubble reminiscent of the dot-com era. Notably, while Nvidia increased by 30%, companies like On Semiconductor and STMicroelectronics surged by 122%. The variance in price/earnings ratios across the sector suggests a misalignment, creating investment opportunities in quality firms like Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. As demand for AI computing escalates, particularly among major tech players like Microsoft and Google, understanding the shift from model training to inference—driven by AI agents—is crucial for investors. These agents are predicted to greatly increase computing demands, highlighting the evolving landscape of semiconductors.

* CEO Interview:

Ryan Cohen, after his initial offer to purchase eBay was rejected, indicated a willingness to present GameStop’s offer directly to eBay shareholders. In an interview, Cohen emphasized that GameStop's proposal is credible and beneficial for shareholders, showcasing the company's latest profitable quarter as evidence of its transformation into a leading seller of collectibles. He argues that both companies share successful product categories and that synergies exist between GameStop’s offline success and eBay’s online business. Furthermore, Cohen expresses a long-term interest in owning eBay, criticizing its management. He acknowledges his expertise in e-commerce, contrasting it with his learning experience in physical retail at GameStop.

* Tech Trader:

-Apple is at a pivotal moment as CEO Tim Cook prepares for what may be his final keynote at the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC). The company aims to revive interest in its artificial intelligence (AI) efforts, following a disappointing rollout in 2024 that failed to deliver anticipated upgrades, particularly with Siri. Expectations for the upcoming keynote include showcasing a revamped Siri that can analyze personal data and provide an independent app interface. Despite past AI setbacks, Apple’s stock is rebounding as investors give the company another chance. Cook's departure in September adds emotional weight to the event, with analysts noting the necessity for Apple to convey that it is not lagging in AI innovation. His tenure has seen remarkable revenue growth and a transformed services business, making this WWDC a critical opportunity for a strong exit as he prepares to hand leadership to John Ternus amid shifting public sentiment on AI technology.

* The Trader:

-The market is increasingly confronting volatility, evidenced by a recent downturn wherein the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, marking its worst performance since March, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.3%. The only gain was seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose 0.4%. This volatility was partly triggered by a robust jobs report indicating 175,000 hires in May, prompting expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, individual stocks displayed heightened volatility, as seen in Broadcom's sharp 13% decline despite record sales, and significant price movements in companies like Marvell Technology and Victoria's Secret, highlighting the market's larger risk appetite and responsiveness to earnings reports.-Concerns about Accenture's future due to artificial intelligence (AI) may be misplaced, as the consulting company could actually benefit from AI implementation. Accenture's shares have dropped 33% this year amid fears of AI displacing business services. However, while AI disrupts some operations, it cannot fully replace established services like cybersecurity, where stocks have rebounded. Accenture boasts a significant workforce of 800,000 employees, far outpacing OpenAI's 150 engineers. Analyst Kevin McVeigh argues that OpenAI lacks the delivery capacity and global footprint required for complex AI programs, further positioning Accenture as a leader. The company is witnessing an increase in demand for its AI services, which analysts expect to drive annual sales growth to $94.3B by 2029, bolstered by higher-priced AI offerings.

* Features:

-Goldman Sachs has seen its stock surge over 80% in the past year due to its leading role in the AI and tech sectors, currently valued at $1,092. However, the stock is perceived as expensive, trading at three times book value and 18 times projected 2026 earnings, surpassing competitors like JPMorgan and Bank of America. While Goldman executives remain optimistic about future earnings, volatility in the market or a disappointing IPO for SpaceX might affect investor sentiment. Despite the overall bullish outlook, key metrics indicate that the stock is already reflecting solid fundamental prospects, leading analysts to express caution regarding its current valuation compared to its earnings potential.

-Alfred Thayer Mahan, who argued that naval supremacy is crucial for national power, would likely view Donald Trump's plan for a new fleet of battleships with approval. However, the evolution of naval warfare, from battleships to aircraft carriers to drones, has changed this paradigm, especially evident in the ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's enforced closure has impacted global oil prices and economic forecasts. The U.S.'s ability to maintain freedom of the seas is challenged as threats to maritime security grow, ranging from piracy to China's military expansion. Mahan emphasized that secure ports and military protection were vital for economic stability and free trade, fundamental to the power of empires throughout history. The U.S. has historically relied on its naval capabilities to protect commerce, starting with its formation post-Revolutionary War to confront threats and maintain trading routes.

* Europe:

-European defense start-ups are quickly entering the IPO market, exemplified by recent announcements from UK's Doncasters and Finland's Savox. This follows Czechoslovak Group's record €3.8B IPO. Established companies like KNDS Group are also planning IPOs. According to investment strategist Ruben Dalfovo, defense is evolving from a panic reaction to a long-term industrial trend. The Ukraine conflict and rising military budgets in the EU, up 11% last year, highlight this shift. Furthermore, European defense is increasingly integrating with innovative start-ups. However, current market sentiment is mixed, as the Select Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defense fund has dropped 15% since the Iran war. Despite this, analysts suggest long-term growth potential remains, as Europe seeks strategic autonomy in military spending.

* Emerging Markets:

Sean Taylor, chief investment officer at Matthews Asia, believes that South Korean stocks will continue to rise despite a 100% increase in the Kospi Composite index. He finds Korean chip companies, trading at low price-to-earnings ratios, particularly attractive, suggesting that gains may be cyclical rather than structural. Taylor also sees potential in South Korean industrials, given the anticipated increase in military spending and reduced purchases from China. Additionally, he notes that changes in Korea’s national pension policy are shifting investments towards local assets. In contrast, he expresses disinterest in Chinese stocks due to regulatory concerns and market lagging, signaling uncertainty about China's future appeal to investors.

* Commodities:

-Gold stocks have decreased significantly, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF down 24% from its February high. This decline correlates with a 13% drop in gold prices, which are now around $4,500 per ounce. Analysts suggest that gold has a strong chance of rebounding, bolstered by central bank purchases increasing 17% annually. J.P. Morgan projects gold could reach $5,245 an ounce by 2027, indicating potential above 15% returns for gold stocks, which tend to respond more drastically to gold price shifts. Notable mining companies such as AngloGold Ashanti, Kinross Gold, and Equinox Gold have seen substantial gains recently, outperforming broader gold ETFs. Orla Mining is also significant due to its upcoming merger with Equinox, aligning their stock performances. Investors are encouraged to consider these gold mining opportunities.

* Streetwise:

-Rocks have become crucial in the construction of data centers, highlighting a growing sector driven by artificial intelligence (AI). CRH, a major infrastructure company, recently announced delivering 1.2M tons of aggregate to a Michigan data center. J.P. Morgan indicates rising rock prices, which remain unaccounted for in current earnings projections. Conversely, healthcare stocks lag despite the burgeoning demand for AI-driven innovations that enhance efficiency and therapeutic advancements. Portfolio manager Shivani Vohra lists key firms such as Eli Lilly, which stands to gain from GLP-1 drug developments; Intuitive Surgical, known for its da Vinci surgical platform; and Natera, which specializes in advanced blood tests. Other notable mentions include Edwards Lifesciences, expanding its heart valve solutions, and Medline, a healthcare supplier that has seen favorable stock movement.

OpenAI has proposed a sovereign-wealth-style fund to ease public anxiety about the impact of artificial intelligence

Donald Trump caught much of the AI industry by surprise this week when he threw his weight behind a radical proposal for companies such as OpenAI to hand equity stakes to the American people.

Elements of the idea, which started as a fringe argument on the progressive left, have recently drawn support from an unlikely cast of characters: Trump cabinet members, democratic socialists such as Bernie Sanders and Maga populists such as Steve Bannon.

But the concept suddenly gained more traction in the White House after OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman visited Capitol Hill this week.

The plan proposed by his company, alongside others, would involve setting up a sovereign-wealth-style fund into which AI companies would contribute equity so the American public can share in the lossmaking sector’s soaring valuations, according to people familiar with the matter. 

This would be distinct from the $9bn stake the Trump administration took in chipmaker Intel last year, as the public would own shares individually, rather than the US government directly owning equity, according to a person with knowledge of OpenAI’s plans.

Here is what else we know about the discussions to date.

What are the proposals?

In response to a question about equity stakes on Air Force One on Friday, Trump suggested “pieces [of AI companies] could be given to the American public” in an effort to quell the growing alarm around the rapid rollout of the technology.

Industry sources told the FT that a voluntary contribution of small amounts of equity — led by OpenAI — was the most likely outcome. This would be used to build a fund that is distributed to Americans, similar to the scheme Alaska has for redistributing oil revenues.

Brad Gerstner, a large investor in Anthropic and OpenAI, said on Friday he was “encouraging founders/companies to donate shares for the direct benefit of all citizens” and that this could filter through to Americans via a previously established plan for the Trump administration to put $1,000 in an investment account for every child born between 2025 and 2028.

The White House declined to elaborate on the plans, directing the FT to Trump’s comments.

OpenAI, which has a philanthropic arm sitting on more than $200bn in largely undisbursed funds, has floated the idea of giving the government a stake in the company with administration officials in recent months, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

In a paper published in April, OpenAI proposed that policymakers and AI companies work together to seed a “Public Wealth Fund that provides every citizen — including those not invested in financial markets — with a stake in AI-driven economic growth”. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has shown interest in similar proposals, according to a person familiar with the matter.

However, some White House officials and OpenAI rivals, including Anthropic, were caught by surprise by Trump’s Friday announcement. Altman had no plans to be in Washington next week, according to a person close to the discussions, despite Trump announcing a White House meeting with AI bosses for the coming week.

A person close to Anthropic, which the US government has designated as a “supply-chain risk”, said the company was not having conversations with the administration about providing equity to the government.

The idea of public ownership of AI companies had been gaining traction on the progressive left for some weeks and was supercharged by an intervention from Sanders, the Vermont senator, in the past few days. Sanders proposed a one-off 50 per cent tax raid on AI labs.

His proposal has won qualified support from some on the populist right, including Bannon, Trump’s former chief of staff, who has long railed against the power of AI companies. Strategists from the Democratic and Republican parties are simultaneously grappling with how to appease voters increasingly worried about the threat AI poses to jobs ahead of November’s elections.

OpenAI’s Altman was in Washington this week, where he met Sanders and other lawmakers from both political parties. He did not discuss these proposals with Trump this week. His company, valued at close to $1tn, is likely to go public soon, while Anthropic and Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which owns xAI, are also racing to the public markets.

The Trump administration has broken with economic orthodoxy by aggressively pursuing equity stakes in key sectors as part of an America First industrial strategy. Last year, it spent $9bn taking a 10 per cent stake in Intel and has invested billions of dollars in rare-earths and quantum computing start-ups in exchange for stock.

There is no precedent, however, for the government taking a stake in lossmaking AI labs collectively worth trillions of dollars. Additionally, the Intel equity was bought using funds already appropriated by the Biden-era Chips Act. Buying a stake in leading AI companies, rather than accepting a donation, would be expensive and probably require approval from Congress.

The initial response from pro-business Republicans and AI investors has been muted. In a post before Trump’s comments, billionaire Silicon Valley investor and White House adviser David Sacks warned against the government assuming “direct ownership and control” of AI companies — a post that was endorsed by Republican senator Ted Cruz.

If the Trump administration did go for equity stakes in leading labs, the backlash could be more widespread, said Samuel Hammond, director of AI policy at the pro-tech Foundation for American Innovation, with protests from investors and companies that were not cut in on the deal.

“Even if taking partial ownership of frontier AI companies can make sense on paper, in practice it’s a recipe for political favouritism and corruption,” he added. 

Sacks, who was previously Trump’s AI tsar and was one of the most accelerationist voices in the administration, left his role this year. His lieutenant Sriram Krishnan announced on Saturday that he would be leaving the Trump administration at the end of this month.

Bid from group including Orange and Free-Iliad faces showdown with antitrust regulators in Paris and Brussels

A consortium led by Bouygues Telecom has agreed a memorandum of understanding to acquire billionaire Patrick Drahi’s French telecoms business SFR for €20.35bn, in a landmark deal to consolidate the French telecoms market and test European regulators’ appetite for mergers. 

Bouygues, Orange and Xavier Niel-owned Free-Iliad submitted a joint offer on Saturday night to carve up SFR’s mobile, broadband and business operations between them.

The deal ends a saga which began last summer, when the bidders began work on the bid to acquire SFR and reduce the French mobile market from four players to three. 

The final bid is the same as the €20.4bn offered in April and up from the €17bn proposal first made by the consortium in October, as the bidders worked to convince Drahi to sell the business he acquired in 2014.

The proposal — which is subject to regulatory approval — is likely to lead to a showdown with antitrust regulators in Paris and Brussels, who have historically been wary of “four to three” telecoms mergers, believing they may lead to higher prices for consumers due to less market competition.

However, regulators in Paris are thought to be more open to a deal than they have been historically, while European watchdogs announced the biggest relaxation of corporate merger rules in decades earlier this year. 

For Drahi, the sale is the latest in a series of moves to cut the $60bn debt pile he amassed building his telecoms and media empire over the past two decades. Last year, he finalised a deal to reduce the debt of Altice France — of which SFR is a part — to about €15.5bn from €24bn

The proposed structure of the takeover would involve Bouygues, Iliad and Orange splitting SFR’s consumer mobile and broadband unit and its customers between them, while Bouygues would have the business that serves corporate clients.

The consortium said the signing of the definitive legal documents was expected in the second half of 2026 while the completion of the transaction could occur in the second half of 2027.

Group has banned dealers from bundling Luce sales and access to exclusive models as it seeks new clients

For many loyal Ferrari collectors, the big question is not whether to splash out for its controversial new electric sports car — but whether doing so might put them in the pole position to buy more exclusive petrol-burning models later on. 

The streamlined Luce, the brainchild of former Apple designer Jony Ive, triggered an uproar on social media and was rebuked by Italian politicians and former executives.

But the reaction was more neutral among the 1,600 enthusiasts and potential buyers at last week’s two-day launch event in Rome. Some Ferrari owners have bought lower-range models in the past as a way to gain better access to more exclusive supercars later on. Now the question is whether buying the Luce will elevate them in the carmaker’s highly secretive client ranking.

Ferrari has issued strict orders, both verbal and written, to prevent dealers from suggesting that buying the €550,000 Luce would give customers a stronger position on its loyalty list. But many potential buyers in various locations still believe that to be the case.

One Ferrari dealer in western China said he thought buying a Luce would bring significant benefits in the future. 

“We’ve heard that Luce will come with very attractive credit rewards, much higher than those for petrol cars,” he said. “That would make it easier to qualify for the purchase of certain limited edition models.”

Clients may still assume that “buying a Luce is a very good way of signalling to Ferrari . . . that you believe in the mission”, said Bernstein analyst Stephen Reitman.

The luxury car group is aiming to sell about 2,500 Luce vehicles by 2030 — a target equal to roughly 5 per cent of its sales each year, which is seen as an achievable target by most analysts.

Ferrari declined to comment on the target figure, but people close to the company said it was focusing sales of the EV on new customers in places such as Silicon Valley and China instead of its traditional collectors.

“Ferrari doesn’t want us to sell it to clients who think that buying this will give them the upper hand with other internal combustion engine models,” said one dealer in Europe. The carmaker wanted “people to buy for no other reason than that you love it and want to drive it”, the dealer added. 

While Ferrari does not disclose details of its client ranking or allocation policy, owners of its sports cars and analysts said it closely tracked customer data, including the number of cars purchased over the years, how long those models were kept and how they are maintained. The participation rate in Ferrari-organised events and how much the cars were driven after being purchased were also taken into account, they said.

“When selecting clients for highly sought-after models, such as limited editions, we prioritise those with whom we have established long-term, strong relationships,” the company said. “We value every interaction a client has with Ferrari.”

The collectors’ ranking on the loyalty list is crucial when qualifying to purchase cars in the much sought-after “special series” such as the Icona and the XX Programme, say owners and analysts.

Ferrari limited sales of its latest €3.6mn F80 supercar to 799 and a special edition model it added to its 599-run Daytona SP3 sold for a record $26mn at a charity event in California last year. Increasing desirability by limiting volumes is a signature Ferrari policy that has bolstered the carmaker’s industry-beating margins.

Despite Ferrari’s stern warning of linking the Luce to new model access, the message may not have reached some dealers in different countries.

One Ferrari owner in China said he was told by his dealer that purchasing the Luce would contribute to boosting his loyalty ranking and give him better access to future releases of limited edition models.

But a UK collector, who wants to test drive the Luce before deciding to buy it, said his decision is likely to have “zero effect” on whether he gets better access to Ferrari’s next limited model.

“For people like me who like to get hold of the limited edition cars, we sometimes get preferred to buy some of the more common cars . . . but there’s been zero pressure on that for this car,” he added.

Ferrari said the company has made it clear to its dealers that the Luce “must not be bundled together with other models or special editions”. 

Since the launch, Ferrari’s chief executive Benedetto Vigna has expressed his confidence that demand for the Luce would be strong. “Look at the people writing to us, the people placing orders,” he said at a recent event in Modena. “Some are existing clients and others are new.”  

The carmaker’s share price, which fell 8.5 per cent in Milan a day after the Luce launch, has recouped some of its losses, while shares in New York are back to prelaunch levels.

Still, some Ferrari owners have expressed disappointment not only with the Luce’s design but also with the technical features of its first five-seater sports car with a range of 530km. The vehicle is able to hit 100 kilometres per hour in about 2.5 seconds, slower than 1.7 seconds for Rimac’s electric Nevera model.

Vigna has shaken off criticism from sports car fans, underplaying vehicle performance such as acceleration speed on its own as “trivial.” Instead, he said the challenge was “aligning performance with [human] perception” for an emotional driving experience.

Graham Royle, a UK customer who owns several Ferraris as well as other luxury cars, said he was not interested in EVs in general and did not attend the launch. However, he still found the Luce’s range and acceleration underwhelming.

“I expected a pure electric Ferrari to still look utterly gorgeous and I expected it would be sensationally fast,” Royle said. “For me, the Luce is a major disappointment in all departments.”