La Lettre — 23/04/26 — Résumé FR/EN
1. DÉFENSE — L’Otan choisit Saab GlobalEye, camouflet pour Boeing
🇫🇷 La NSPA a attribué le 21 avril le contrat de remplacement des 14 Awacs E-3 au GlobalEye de Saab/Bombardier, écartant le Boeing E-7 pourtant promis sans appel d’offres en 2023. Commande de 10-12 appareils, 550 M€ l’unité, soit >5 Md€ hors MCO/formation. Plateforme : Bombardier Global 6000/6500 + radar Erieye ER. Programme iAFSC à ≥9 pays (Allemagne, Suède, Roumanie, Danemark, Canada, Pays-Bas, Belgique, Luxembourg, Lettonie bientôt). Berlin prend 1/3 du coût après le retrait US. Facteurs clés : portée radar supérieure, prix ~2x inférieur au Boeing, soutien diplomatique de Paris. La décision US d’abandonner le E-7 en juin 2025 au profit du “Golden Dome” satellitaire de Trump a ouvert la brèche. France : 6 GlobalEye commandés cet hiver ; Berlin pourrait suivre ; Canada (Carney) étudie 6 GlobalEye + chasseurs Gripen à la place du F-35.
🇬🇧 NATO’s procurement agency (NSPA) awarded the contract to replace 14 ageing E-3 AWACS to Saab/Bombardier’s GlobalEye, rejecting the Boeing E-7 that had been promised without tender in 2023. Order of 10-12 units at €550M each, >€5bn total (ex-MRO/training). Platform: Bombardier Global 6000/6500 fitted with Saab’s Erieye ER radar. The iAFSC programme has ≥9 participating nations; Germany absorbs one-third of the cost after US withdrawal. Decisive factors: superior radar range, price roughly half Boeing’s, strong French diplomatic backing. The US pivot in June 2025 to Trump’s “Golden Dome” satellite system (over E-7) opened the door. Follow-throughs: France ordered 6 GlobalEye this winter, Berlin likely next, Canada considering 6 GlobalEye plus Saab Gripen fighters instead of F-35s. Significant European sovereignty signal — and material tailwind for SAAB-B.ST / BBD-B.TO.
2. POLITIQUE — Le Cnoec débouté contre son ex-président Canesi
🇫🇷 Le tribunal judiciaire de Paris a débouté le Conseil national de l’ordre des experts-comptables dans sa plainte contre son ex-président Lionel Canesi (jugement du 14 avril). Le Cnoec contestait l’achat d’un nouveau siège face à l’Assemblée et le fonds Drakarys (6 M€ investis) ; il demandait 433 k€ d’indemnités. Il est au contraire condamné à verser 30 k€ à Canesi et à Drakarys. Le tribunal a jugé qu’aucune faute dolosive n’était démontrée. Présidence actuelle : Damien Charrier (après Cécile de Saint Michel) ; gouvernance restée clivée (Ifec/ECF/EPA).
🇬🇧 The Paris court dismissed the French Accountants’ Council (Cnoec) suit against former president Lionel Canesi, finding no proven wrongdoing regarding the headquarters purchase or the €6M Drakarys tech fund. Cnoec ordered to pay €30k in costs. Current president Damien Charrier inherits a still-divided governance.
3. POLITIQUE — Shortcut Events : Bélaval entendu par la brigade financière
🇫🇷 Le PNF a auditionné le 22 avril Philippe Bélaval, ex-conseiller culture de Macron et ex-patron du CMN (2012-2022), dans l’enquête sur Shortcut Events (dirigée par Christophe Pinguet et Lionel Laval), prestataire quasi-exclusif des panthéonisations 2002-2024 (Dumas, Manouchian) et de la Cité internationale de la langue française. Chefs d’enquête : favoritisme, prise illégale d’intérêts, corruption, trafic d’influence. Le 14 avril, Georges-François Leclerc (dircab Macron) a refusé la perquisition de l’Élysée en invoquant l’art. 67 — disposition non opposée lors de l’affaire Benalla de 2018.
🇬🇧 The PNF questioned Macron’s former culture adviser Philippe Bélaval on 22 April in the probe into Shortcut Events, the de facto sole provider for state pantheonisations since 2002. Charges under investigation: favouritism, illegal conflict of interest, corruption, influence peddling. The Élysée blocked a 14 April search citing presidential immunity — a shield not raised during the 2018 Benalla affair.
4. ENTREPRISES — Alstom : Martin Sion cherche une nouvelle Dircom
🇫🇷 Dana Salloum (ex-Boeing, 3 ans chez Alstom) quitte la direction communication/affaires publiques d’Alstom pour raisons familiales. Chasse confiée au cabinet YourSide (Pierre-Olivier Landry). Contexte : profit warning la semaine dernière, objectif de marge opérationnelle révisé à 6,5 %, abandon du cash-flow libre cumulé de 1,5 Md€/3 ans, action -25 % le 17 avril. Retour au CAC 40 compromis. Recrutement orienté profil dircom CAC 40 classique (85 k salariés, 18,5 Md€ CA dont 17 % France seulement). Gouvernance : Philippe Petitcolin (ex-Safran) président dissocié ; principaux actionnaires CDPQ et Bpifrance.
🇬🇧 Dana Salloum steps down as Alstom’s head of communications/public affairs. Search led by boutique firm YourSide. Backdrop: profit warning last week, margin target cut to 6.5%, €1.5bn 3-yr cumulative FCF target abandoned, stock down 25% on 17 April. CAC 40 re-entry now unlikely this year. Weak fundamentals + governance churn — watch for further downside.
5. ÉNERGIE — Stellaria rejoint la task force SMR Hexana/Tractebel
🇫🇷 La start-up française Stellaria (SMR à neutrons rapides) intègre début avril l’alliance Hexana/Tractebel au sein de Cogen Europe (lobby cogénération chaleur-électricité). 1re réunion début mai, promotion des SMR au niveau européen. SCK-CEN (centre nucléaire belge) pressenti. Direction Cogen : Hans Korteweg (ex-NuclearEurope). Sous contrainte financière, les SMR cherchent des financements ; projet de texte européen finançant plusieurs Md€ les techno bas-carbone attendu après mai. Concurrents France 2030 : Thorizon, Calogena, Newcleo, Nuward (EDF) — tous ralliés à l’Alliance industrielle SMR de la Commission, mais sans financement public à ce stade.
🇬🇧 French fast-neutron SMR start-up Stellaria joins the Hexana/Tractebel alliance within Cogen Europe to push SMR deployment at EU level. Belgian nuclear research centre SCK-CEN expected to join. A multi-billion euro EU text funding low-carbon technologies expected post-May. Competing France 2030 SMR players (Thorizon, Calogena, Newcleo, Nuward/EDF) still waiting on public funding.
6. MOUVEMENT — Aurélie Pugnet prend la com’ d’Airbus à Bruxelles
🇫🇷 La journaliste Aurélie Pugnet (ex-Euractiv défense, ex-Bruxelles2) prend la tête de la communication du bureau bruxellois d’Airbus. Elle est remplacée à Euractiv par Alice Tidey (ex-Euronews) et Pietro Guastamacchia (ex-Ansa). Pugnet travaillera sous la représentation UE-Otan d’Airbus dirigée par Reinout van Tuyll van Serooskerken — dossiers : budgets défense/espace du CFP en négociation, carburants aviation durables.
🇬🇧 Journalist Aurélie Pugnet (ex-Euractiv defence) becomes head of communications at Airbus Brussels. Key briefs: MFF defence/space budget negotiations, sustainable aviation fuels.
7. MÉDIAS — Les chantiers de Dalila Zein, nouvelle DG d’Editis
🇫🇷 Dalila Zein (ex-DGA finance + présidente d’Interforum) prend la DG d’Editis (2e groupe d’édition français, détenu par Daniel Kretinsky) après l’intérim du président Denis Olivennes. En 2024 : résultat net +1,1 M€ pour CA 773 M€ (vs -17,5 M€ en 2023, année de la vente par Bolloré). 3 chantiers : (1) réforme du pôle littérature (pôle en perte de 4,3 M€ sur 110 M€ CA), rapprochements de maisons, direction avec Sofia Bengana ; (2) réduction des éditeurs tiers chez Interforum (>200 maisons diffusées, jugées trop coûteuses) avec Marie-Pierre Sangouard — résiliations Éditions de la Philharmonie, du Layeur ; (3) capter les auteurs de Grasset après le limogeage d’Olivier Nora par Bolloré le 14 avril. Plan social suspendu : 87 postes CMI France + 45 CMI Media (droit d’alerte FO).
🇬🇧 Dalila Zein takes over as CEO of Editis (Kretinsky-owned #2 French publisher): 2024 net income swung to +€1.1M on €773M revenue (from -€17.5M in 2023). Three priorities: (1) restructure loss-making literature division (€4.3M loss/€110M revenue) with imprint mergers, (2) rationalise Interforum’s third-party distribution (>200 publishers), (3) capture Grasset authors following Olivier Nora’s 14 April ouster by Bolloré. Suspended social plan: 87 positions at CMI France + 45 at CMI Media.
Takeaway pour GA : le dossier OTAN/Saab/Boeing (€5 Md+, souveraineté européenne, read-through SAAB/Bombardier/F-35) est le sujet le plus actionnable cette semaine. L’alerte Alstom (-25%) mérite suivi, comme l’accélération de la consolidation SMR européenne.
Je peux produire une note institutionnelle au format Graham Advisors sur le sujet GlobalEye/Saab si souhaité.
Stocks and bonds dropped as stalled US-Iran talks and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices higher, souring risk sentiment after a record rally on Wall Street. MSCI’s Asia Pacific equity gauge fell 1.1%, with decliners outnumbering advancers almost four to one, as higher oil prices damp the outlook for economic growth. Futures contracts for the S&P 500 Index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 both dropped 0.6%, after the underlying gauges closed at a record high on Wednesday on robust corporate earnings and the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire. Brent crude climbed 1.5% to $103.40 a barrel, putting it on track for a fourth straight day of gains, due to a lack of progress in US-Iran talks. The benchmark has surged 70% this year, with most of the advance coming after the Middle East conflict started in late February. Bonds fell as higher oil prices stoked inflation concerns.
While President Donald Trump said a truce with Iran would remain in place indefinitely, investors remain wary of the lack of progress in talks to resolve the nearly two-month conflict. The longer the war drags on and the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, keeping oil prices elevated, the greater the risk of significant economic fallout for economies worldwide. Tensions remain high as the US and Iran failed to meet for a fresh round of peace talks, with both sides blocking the waterway to gain leverage during an extended ceasefire. Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminently. The US maintained a naval blockade on ships going to and from Iran’s ports to pile pressure on the Islamic Republic, in a move Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called a violation of the ceasefire. Treasuries headed for a fourth day of losses, with the 10-year yield rising two basis points to 4.32%, while the dollar gained against most of its major peers.In other corners of the market, gold slipped 0.8% to about $4,700 an ounce, while silver declined 2% to about $76.15 an ounce. Bitcoin was a touch weaker at about $77,800.
Greg Calnon, Global Head of Public Investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, discusses his outlook for markets and investment strategy. Technology stocks, which rallied at the start of Asian trading on robust corporate earnings, also erased gains. MSCI’s gauge for tech stocks in the Asian region fell 0.7%. South Korea’s Kospi Index — a poster child for artificial intelligence investments — erased an earlier jump of 2.2% to trade 0.7% lower.
One positive news was strong earnings from companies. Boeing Co. jumped on solid first-quarter deliveries. Tesla Inc. reported earnings that beat estimates. Texas Instruments Inc. gave a strong forecast for the current period. In Asia, SK Hynix Inc. reported a five-fold increase in profit. Robust corporate profits, the revival of the artificial-intelligence trade and an otherwise resilient economy have buoyed stocks despite lingering geopolitical risks. Nearly 80% of the S&P 500 companies reporting first-quarter results have beaten analyst earnings estimates so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index gained for a record 16th day as investors bet on continued strength driven by artificial intelligence-related demand. US After ASGN -23.8%, MEDP -18.7%, NOW -12.8%, IBM -6.5%, LUV -3.9% lower on earnings; LULU -4.9% lower after naming Nike exec as new CEO.
Nikkei -0.92% Hang Seng -1.12% CSI -0.79% Shanghai -0.79% Shenzen -1.61%
Eur$ 1.1702 CNH 6.8337 CNY 6.8316 JPY 159.55 GBP 1.3492 CHF 0.7855 RUB 75.0870 TRY 44.9257 WTI$ 94.05 +1.39% Gold 4,710 -0.46% BTC 78,013 -1.26% ETH 2,351 -1.75%
S&P -0.52% Nasdaq -0.51% EuroStoxx -0.75% FTSE -0.51% Dax -0.87% SMI
Macro :
- EU March Car Registrations Rise 12.5% Y/y to 1.158m Units, Europe Car Sales Jump 11% as Strong EV Demand Drives Recovery
- Iran Fires on Hormuz Ships as US Navy Intercepts Oil Tankers
Keep an eye on :
- Iran Fires on Hormuz Ships as US Navy Intercepts Oil Tankers
Keep an eye on :
- ABBV US : AbbVie Announces $1.4b Manufacturing Campus in North Carolina
- ABVX FP : Abivax to Present Data on Obefazimod at Digestive Disease Week 2/5 May 2026
- AF FP : Air France-KLM, Lufthansa Bids for Portugal’s TAP Set to Advance
- AI FP : Air Liquide to Invest Over $350m in Louisiana
- BABA US : Taiwan to Review Chinese Mapping App AMap, Consider Ban: CNA
- BABA US : Tencent, Alibaba in Talks to Join DeepSeek’s First Funding Round
- AAPL US : Tim Cook Regrets Maps Flub, Sees Apple Watch as Proudest Work
- ASML NA : TSMC Says ASML’s Latest Chipmaking Gear Is Too Pricey to Use
- ATRAV FH : Atria 1Q Sales Beat Estimates
- AUTO NO : Autostore 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- AXFO SS : Axfood 1Q Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- AZE BB : Azelis 1Q Adjusted Ebita Beats Estimates
- BKT SM : Bankinter 1Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- BAS GY : BASF Gets Positive Catalyst Watch at Citi on Earnings Inflection
- BHG SS : BHG Group 1Q Adjusted Ebitda SEK129.5M Vs. SEK105.0M Y/y
- BIM FP : BioMerieux Cuts FY Organic Sales Forecast
- BMW GY : BMW Sees Uptick in EV Buyer Interest in US After Gas Prices Rise
- BMW GY : BMW Sees Uptick in EV Buyer Interest in US After Gas Prices Rise
- CA FP : Carrefour 1Q LFL Sales Ex-Fuel, Ex-Calendar Beat Estimates
- DSY FP : Dassault Systemes Sees 2Q Non-IFRS Rev Ex-FX +2% to +5%
- DNB NO : DNB Bank 1Q Return on Equity Beats Estimates
- DOM SS : Dometic 1Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- EQT SS : EQT Is Said to Consider Takeover of Kakaku.com
- ERA FP : Eramet Sees FY Capital Expenditure EU250M to EU290M
- EL FP : EssilorLuxottica 1Q Rev. Ex-FX Misses Estimates, EssilorLuxottica Posts 11% Sales Jump, Extends AI Glasses Boost
- ESSITYA SS : Essity to Start New Share Buyback Program of SEK3 Billion, Essity 1Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- EPR NO : Europris 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- FABG SS : Fabege 1Q Rental Income Meets Estimates
- FTK GY : FlatexDEGIRO 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- GALD SW : Galderma 1Q Net Sales Beat Estimates, Galderma 1Q Net Sales Beat Estimates; Confirms FY Guidance
- GFC FP : Gecina 1Q Like-for-Like Rental +2.3%
- GET FP : Getlink 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- GTT FP : GTT 1Q Revenue EU192.5M Vs. EU190.5M Y/y
- HMS SS :HMS Networks 1Q Sales Beat Estimates
- HNSA SS : Hansa Biopharma 1Q Net Revenue Misses Estimates
- HEIA NA : Heineken 1Q Europe Adjusted Net Revenue Misses Estimates
- HUSQB SS : Husqvarna 1Q Net Sales Beat Estimates
- IBM US : IBM Posts Software Sales That Fail to Shake AI Concerns
- ITRK LN : Nelson Peltz’s Son Builds Public Activist Stake in Intertek: FT
- KMI US : Kinder Morgan 1Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- KOG NO : Kongsberg Maritime Trading to Begin with NOK67 Reference Price
- LVS US : Las Vegas Sands 1Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- LULU US : Lululemon Slumps as Ex-Nike Executive Named New CEO: Street Wrap
- MARAS FH : Martela 1Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- MSFT US : Microsoft looked at buying Cursor before SpaceX deal, sources say
- MIPS SS : Mips 1Q Net Sales Meet Estimates
- NAVA NO : Navamedic 1Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- NEL NO : Nel Receives $7 Million Order For Hydrogen Equipment
- NESN SW : Nestle 1Q Organic Revenue Beats Estimates
- NEWAB SS : New Wave 1Q Sales Under Estimates
- NORION SS : Norion Bank Initiates SEK 500 Million Share Buyback Program
- NOKIA FH : Nokia 1Q Adjusted Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- ORA FP : Orange Profits Rise on Africa Growth and Easing Competition
- OR FP : L’Oreal 1Q Like-for-Like Sales +7.6%
- PCELL SS : PowerCell 1Q Sales SEK46.9M Vs. SEK74.1M Y/y
- PRICB SS : Pricer 1Q Sales Beat Estimates
- RPI LN : Raspberry Pi Holder Offers 5% of Company, Raspberry PI Offering by Holder Prices at GBp550/Share: Terms
- RNO FP : Renault 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- ROG SW : Roche Granted FDA Orphan Drug Status for Divarasib
- ROG SW :
- SAAB SS : Saab 1Q Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- SAF FP : Safran 1Q Organic Adjusted Revenue Beats Estimates
- SAN FP : Sanofi, Regeneron’s Dupixent Approved in US for Skin Disease
- SRT GY : Sartorius 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
- SVANFL FH : Scanfil 1Q EPS Misses Estimates, Scanfil 1Q Turnover Misses Estimates
- SCHP SW : Schindler 1Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- SEDANA SS : Sedana Medical 1Q Sales Miss Estimates
- SGSN SW : SGS 1Q Sales CHF1.75B Vs. CHF1.68B Y/y
- SIP BB : Sipef 1Q Palm Oil Output 100,878 Metric Tons
- 000660 KS : SK Hynix Targets Mass Production of Cutting-Edge HBM4E in 2027
- 9984 JP : SoftBank Seeks $10 Billion Loan Backed by OpenAI Shares
- TEF SM : America Movil CEO: Telefonica Wasn’t Investing Enough in Mexico
- TXN US : Texas Instruments Jumps on Strong Results and Forecast
- TEL NO : Telenor Grameenphone 1Q Consol. Operating Profit NOK1.03B
- TSLA US : Tesla Boosts Spending Plan to $25 Billion in AI, Robotics Push
- UBSG SW : Swiss Bank Reforms to Make UBS’s US Growth More Costly: Minister
- UBSG SW : UBS Sees $4 Billion Capital Impact From Swiss Executive Order
- VPLAYB SS : Viaplay 1Q Ebit Loss SEK234M
- VONN SW : Vontobel Assets Under Management CHF240.1B
- MF FP : Wendel Now Sees FY Mid-Single-Digit Org. Revenue Growth
>>> Up
* CRH Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Croda Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 3,500 pence
* Equinor Raised to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 390 kroner
* Lumo Kodit Oyj Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 9.50 euros
* Metso Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 16 euros
* Metso Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 16 euros
* Symrise Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 70 euros
* Texas Instruments Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $250
>>> Down
* Digital Workforce Services Cut to Accumulate at Inderes
>>> Down
* Digital Workforce Services Cut to Accumulate at Inderes
* Madison Square Garden Sports Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $355
* Revenio Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 18.30 euros
>>> Initiation
>>> Initiation
* Caledonia Investments Rated New Overweight at Barclays
* Grupo Financiero Galicia ADRs Rated New Hold at Banco Mariva
* INVISIO AB Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT 420 kronor
* Oklo Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $96
* RIT Capital Partners Rated New Overweight at Barclays
>>> Call
* RIT Capital Partners Rated New Overweight at Barclays
>>> Call
- Nokia (NOA3 TH) +6.3%
- Nokia CEO Says Tracking Somewhat Above Midpoint of FY Guidance
- STMicro (SGM TH) +3.9%
- STMicro 2Q Net Revenue Forecast Beats Estimates
- EssilorLuxottica (ESL TH) +2.7%
- Infineon (IFX TH) +1.6%
- Renault (RNL TH) +1.5%
- Renault Revenue Gains Despite Bad-Weather Impact for Dacia
- Nestle (NESR TH) +1.3%
- Nestle 1Q Organic Revenue Beats Estimates
- BE Semiconductor (BSI TH) +1.3%
- BE Semiconductor 1Q Operating Income Misses Estimates (1)
- Roche (RHOA TH) +1.3%
- Roche 1Q Sales Miss Estimates
- ASM Intl (AVS TH) +1.2%
- Capgemini (CGM TH) -1.6%
- Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -1.7%
- Saab (SDV1 TH) -1.8%
- Saab 1Q Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- Kion (KGX TH) -1.8%
- Glencore (8GC TH) -1.8%
- Atlas Copco (ACO4 TH) -1.9%
- ASML (ASME TH) -2%
- ABN Amro (AB2 TH) -2%
- SAP (SAP TH) -3.1%
- Sartorius (SRT3 TH) -4.3%
- Sartorius 1Q Adj. Ebitda Meets Ests; Sees 2H Stronger Than 1H
To contact the reporter on this story:
DAX:
- Infineon (IFX TH) +1.6%
- Continental (CON TH) -1.1%
- Heidelberg Materials (HEI TH) -1.3%
- Siemens (SIE TH) -1.3%
- Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -1.6%
- SAP (SAP TH) -2.7%
- SAP, Sanofi, Nokia, Orange: Earnings Day Ahead
MDAX:
- RTL (RRTL TH) +4.9%
- *RTL GROUP TO FINALIZE SKY DEUTSCHLAND DEAL; SEEN CLOSING JUNE 1
- TKMS (TKMS TH) +1.1%
- Germany and India on Track to Seal Submarine Deal, Minister Says
- Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -1.2%
- TUI (TUI1 TH) -1.2%
- K+S (SDF TH) -1.4%
- Aroundtown (AT1 TH) -1.4%
- Deutz (DEZ TH) -1.9%
SDAX:
- Mutares (MUX TH) +2.1%
- Verbio SE (VBK TH) +1%
- Evotec (EVT TH) -1.4%
- TeamViewer (TMV TH) -1.4%
- SAF-Holland SE (SFQ TH) -1.7%
- Tonies SE (TNIE TH) -1.8%
- PVA TePla (TPE TH) -2.9%
Elon Musk Strikes Unusually Cautious Tone on Tesla Call
Tesla’s earnings calls are usually freewheeling affairs, with pulsating electronic music and wildly optimistic projections from CEO Elon Musk, who often likes to crack crude jokes and giggle. Today was different. Instead of the typical sci-fi rhapsodies about self-driving vehicles taking over the world and robots solving poverty, Musk spent much of the call talking about constraints on his vision for Tesla.
For example, when asked when production would start on Tesla’s Optimus robot, he said he needed to “inject some reality into the situation” and gave a lengthy answer about why setting up a production line is hard and takes time. Asked when Tesla will offer fully unsupervised self-driving software or a Tesla robotaxi service in Europe, Musk said he could not provide a timeline because he doesn't know what regulators will decide. (That hasn’t stopped Tesla in the past.)
And asked whether older Tesla vehicles will ever work with fully autonomous driving software—something the company has promised for years—Musk said that, actually, the chips and cameras in the vehicles aren’t good enough for complete autonomy after all. He also was cautious about the timing for when full self-driving software would be made available on a broad scale, cautioning that a coming new software update that enhanced safety was needed first.
His comments appear to have wiped out any enthusiasm about Tesla’s first-quarter results, which showed the company’s electric vehicle business beginning to recover from a yearslong slump. Tesla shares initially jumped 4% in after-hours trading when the company reported its results, but were down 2.4% by the time the call ended.
Maybe SpaceX’s investor meetings this week, related to that company’s coming initial public offering, put Musk in an unusually cautious frame of mind. Or perhaps he's realizing how complicated it will be to run two public companies. Indeed, when asked about a chipmaking project that involves both SpaceX and Tesla, Musk referred to the complexities of dealing with the boards of both companies, saying, “it takes a while to work through the kind of independent director reviews on this.” Not exactly gung-ho!
ServiceNow’s Quarter Gets Poor Reception
The impact that acquisitions have on margins is a sore subject for software investors, as ServiceNow learned on Wednesday. The enterprise software firm reported a reacceleration in topline growth, to 22% for the first quarter of the year, only to see its stock tank as much as 15% in after-hours trading.
Investors may have been responding to ServiceNow’s acknowledgement that its just-completed $7.75 billion cash purchase of cybersecurity firm Armis would erode its profit margins this year. Specifically, the company’s full year free cash flow margin will be diluted by two percentage points—the company is now projecting a 35% FCF margin—while its second quarter operating margin would be reduced by 1.25 percentage points to 26.5%.
For the full year, ServiceNow cut its projected operating margin to 31.5%, from 32%. (This is the operating margin excluding the cost of stock compensation expense. With those and other non-cash expenses included, ServiceNow’s operating margin is closer to 13.5%.)
Salesforce learned the hard way—from activist pressure—that weak margins turn off investors. Salesforce has lifted its margins sharply in recent years. ServiceNow could win over more investors by following suit.
OpenClaw Struggles to Grow Up After Overnight Success
The Takeaway
- OpenClaw struggles to balance rapid innovation with stability for users.
- Some companies are using outdated versions of OpenClaw out of fear that updates will break their software.
- Established companies also are supporting its growth, with Tencent donating to the OpenClaw foundation.
OpenClaw, the AI agent software that took the tech world by storm, is reckoning with a difficult choice: whether to transition from an experimental hacker project to a sustainable tool companies can reliably use.
One of the fastest-growing open-source software projects ever, OpenClaw is still managed by a group of volunteers who are trying to keep up with the technical and logistical demands of a fast-changing new product category while hewing to the collaborative, experimental spirit that got it started.
Created by Austrian programmer Peter Steinberger, OpenClaw became an overnight sensation by enabling developers and tech enthusiasts to build their own autonomous AI agents. Its popularity, especially in China, prompted tech giants including ByteDance and Tencent Holdings to launch OpenClaw-based products. At Nvidia’s GTC conference last month, CEO Jensen Huang called OpenClaw “the operating system for personal AI,” portraying its impact as akin to the revolution Windows brought to personal computers.
Steinberger and a few dozen volunteer “maintainers” are responsible for adding features, fixing bugs and addressing concerns from its ever-growing list of users. The maintainers typically juggle moonlighting for OpenClaw with day jobs such as running their own startups. They use AI coding tools to work on OpenClaw’s almost constant software updates.
Steinberger got a new day job in February when OpenAI hired him. But the AI giant has given him plenty of time to continue leading OpenClaw’s development, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. In addition to running OpenClaw as an open source project, Steinberger has been fundraising for the OpenClaw foundation he announced in February, which will eventually oversee the software.
OpenClaw’s rapid expansion has exposed security and technical vulnerabilities, with users reporting cases of OpenClaw agents accidentally deleting data, and cybersecurity firms identifying malware targeting OpenClaw. Many users over the past month reported that its frequent software updates—sometimes occurring every day or two—messed up the existing agents they had custom-built with tools from the OpenClaw community.
Earlier this month, OpenClaw’s maintainers found out that the OpenClaw-based products built by Nvidia, ByteDance, Tencent and several other Chinese tech companies were still using old versions of OpenClaw from the first half of March. The companies worried that switching to newer versions would result in serious technical problems, according to the two people and another person with direct knowledge of the situation.
Steinberger and OpenClaw’s maintainers are trying to address these challenges. For example, some maintainers have recently started helping the tech companies using older versions migrate safely to the latest version, according to the three people. While some of those companies began to implement gradual software updates in the past week, the migration will likely take time, the people said.
Those challenges are forcing OpenClaw to confront fundamental questions about how it operates, sparking debates among maintainers, according to two of the three people. Some maintainers advocate adopting a more traditional product-management model with predictable update cycles, rigorous quality assurance and formalized coordination with corporate users. Others fear introducing conventional procedures and rigid structures could stifle innovation and diminish OpenClaw’s hackerlike ethos, which values rapid experimentation and free collaboration.
Last week, OpenClaw had a “no new features” week, focusing instead on improvements to make the software faster and more stable, said Gustavo Madeira Santana, a neuroscience doctoral student at Yale University, who has been volunteering as an OpenClaw maintainer since January. “We want to increase stability and make sure that people don’t get scared about updating,” he said.
Some maintainers say OpenClaw needs to update its software frequently to keep reinventing itself, given the ongoing evolution of personal AI agents and users’ expectations. An updated version from just days ago may already require a complete makeover. In their view, the experimental nature of OpenClaw makes it unsuitable for conventional software rollouts.
Established open-source projects have worked through similar challenges. Linux, the popular operating system launched in the early 1990s, has “long-term support” versions that receive small updates to fix bugs but mostly stay consistent so companies can trust they will remain reliable for years.
Darian Shirazi, a general partner at venture firm Gradient who has used OpenClaw, suggests it could have a revenue-generating “professional edition” that it sells in parallel to the open-source project. That would introduce an incentive to make the product more consumer friendly, an approach other open-source projects have taken, he said.
Conflicting Demands
OpenClaw’s maintainers are also dealing with conflicting demands from users. Earlier this month, a software update caused users to start seeing notifications requesting their permission for agents to perform certain actions. Many users who wanted their agents to work autonomously without intervention complained. In the end, the maintainers worked on another update to hide the notifications.
“To understand OpenClaw, you need to understand that the beginning was irregular,” said Noam Schwartz, co-founder and CEO of Alice, a cybersecurity company, who has been using OpenClaw agents for months. “When OpenClaw went out, it behaved more like a product than an open-source project,” leading to unrealistic expectations, he said.
When Schwartz updates to the latest version of OpenClaw, it usually takes him about an hour to fix the various ways his setup breaks. But that is typical of open-source software, he said. “It’s not like an iOS update.”
Anthropic has also been causing headaches for OpenClaw lately. Anthropic earlier this month announced new rules that made it much more expensive for customers to use its models with third-party tools like OpenClaw. As a result, instead of paying $200 per month for an Anthropic subscription, “you can end up paying $200 per day,” said Schwartz.
The increased cost is a blow to OpenClaw users, many of whom rely on Anthropic’s Claude as their preferred AI. But OpenClaw is working to help people make better use of OpenAI’s models instead, said Madeira Santana.
OpenClaw’s popularity has drawn competitors. Hermes, an agent tool from Nous Research, earlier this month eclipsed OpenClaw in terms of recent contributors, according to GitHub data compiled by ClawCharts, which tracks the growth of open-source AI agents. Hermes is gaining in terms of other metrics, such as new software changes and stars (GitHub’s version of likes)—although Madeira Santana said OpenClaw is still receiving as many new code proposals as ever.
Shirazi of Gradient said he has found OpenClaw to be clunky, and he also worries about its security, so he has switched to rivals such as Town. “I don’t know why anyone that isn’t an engineer and isn’t a tinkerer would be using OpenClaw at this point because there are a lot of these solutions, like Town or Notion custom agents, that are really good,” he said.
The fragmented nature of open-source software makes it difficult to gather comprehensive data, but statistics from Node Package Manager, software for downloading OpenClaw, show average weekly downloads have fallen by roughly half since the peak in mid-March, returning to lower levels it had earlier that month. Those numbers include updates of existing OpenClaw software as well as new downloads, but they don’t count downloads via other platforms.
As they work to build out OpenClaw, its maintainers are getting help from established companies. Tencent recently agreed to contribute to the OpenClaw foundation, according to two of the people with knowledge of the situation. OpenAI offered to donate to the foundation as well (Steinberger has said he turned that offer down), and it helped with the organization’s paperwork and has provided credits for OpenClaw maintainers to use OpenAI’s Codex coding tool, according to an OpenAI spokesperson.
GitHub also has offered complimentary services to OpenClaw maintainers, and Convex, which provides software and databases to host websites, covers the bill for ClawHub, where OpenClaw users download new skills for their agents.
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Predictions Marketplace Fines Three Candidates for ‘Political Insider Trading’
One congressional hopeful says he has no plans to pay the fine; ‘I’ll take them to court if I have to’
Kalshi, a predictions marketplace, fined and suspended three congressional candidates for “political insider trading” —betting on their own races.
Minnesota State Sen. Matt Klein, Ezekiel Enriquez, and Mark Moran were cited by Kalshi for rule violations.
Lawmakers and the White House have expressed concern over prediction markets, citing potential for illegal trading and insider information use.
Predictions marketplace Kalshi said it had fined and suspended three congressional candidates for betting on their own races.
Minnesota State Sen. Matt Klein and congressional hopefuls Ezekiel Enriquez and Mark Moran each engaged in what the platform called “political insider trading,” Kalshi said Wednesday.
“Just like in traditional financial markets, bad actors will try to cheat,” Kalshi said. “Regulated exchanges must constantly evolve and adapt their systems to address insider threats.”
The platform’s rules prohibit candidates in a political race from making bets in markets related to their own elections, and in March said it would work to pre-emptively block them from doing so.
The rise in popularity of prediction marketplaces such as Kalshi—which allow users to bet on everything from soccer matches to government shutdowns—has sparked concern from lawmakers over the potential for illegal trading.
The White House earlier this month warned staffers against using inside information to make bets. Several states have taken legal action, alleging the operations violate state gambling laws. A group of more than 40 Democratic lawmakers urged the Trump administration in March to address allegations of insider trading by federal employees, following a series of unusual bets on geopolitical events.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig, a defender of prediction markets, said that his team was trying to fight insider trading, including when it comes to government policy matters.
Kalshi has previously disclosed disciplinary actions against others accused of violating its rules, including a former California gubernatorial candidate and a video editor for YouTube streamer MrBeast.
Klein and Enriquez, who were both running for U.S. House seats, wagered less than $100 and quickly admitted to their conduct when contacted by the platform, Kalshi said. Klein, a Democrat, was ordered to pay a fine of $539.85. Enriquez, a Republican, paid $784.20. Both were suspended from the platform for five years.
Klein said he wagered $50 after friends told him people were using the platform to bet on his race in October 2025. He said he didn’t realize he was violating Kalshi’s rules until March of this year.
“This was a mistake, and I apologize,” he said. “My experience, like many other Minnesotans, points to the need for clearer rules and regulations for these types of markets.”
Enriquez, who lost the Republican primary for Texas’ 21st Congressional District in March, didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Moran, who is running for a Virginia U.S. Senate seat as an independent, bet several times in late 2025 and 2026, Kalshi said, including wagers on who would run for public office that were placed before he announced his candidacy. The platform said Moran initially indicated he had broken Kalshi’s rules, but later stopped responding. He was suspended for five years and fined $6,229.30.
On Wednesday, Moran said he made the bet for the purpose of getting caught and to try to see the company’s path to investigating him. “I wanted to see (1) if Kalshi would come after me and (2) what their path would be,” Moran wrote on X.