Transport Section — Full English Translation
La Lettre, 20 April 2026
Article 1: The government out of step on the rail-industry delays file
By Marc Fressoz
A report criticizing delivery delays on new trains has been sitting on the desks of the Transport and Industry ministers since January. The findings of the study have still not been made public, even as the issue is poisoning relations between Alstom, SNCF, RATP and the regions.
Photo caption: Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot. ©Julien Mattia/Le Pictorium/MaxPPP
Players across France’s rail sector are losing patience. Whether they are manufacturers like Alstom and Spain’s CAF, operators like SNCF and RATP, or funders like the regions, they have all been waiting since the start of the year for the government to publish the conclusions of a report on the state of rail transport in France, commissioned in early 2025. Drafted by Yves Ramette, a former RATP executive; Christian Dugué, an engineer specialized in naval military programmes; and François Feugier, an automotive expert, the nearly 400-page document delivers a scathing diagnosis of the chronic delays in delivering new trains and outlines solutions. Since January, it has been awaiting action on the desks of Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot and his counterpart at Industry, Sébastien Martin.
Even though the Middle East conflict has disrupted the executive’s agenda, the dossier appears all the more pressing given that these recurring delivery delays mean cost overruns, late-penalty charges and lost revenue (see La Lettre, 05/03/26). Above all, industry players are losing patience because of the countdown to the presidential election, which with every passing day narrows the window to implement the solutions the working group has developed — and, in some cases, to translate them into decrees.
Alstom in the crosshairs
The most emblematic case involves the new-generation TGV M, which SNCF has been expecting since 2024. The rail operator complains of substantial lost commercial revenue, unable to offer enough seats during peak holiday departure waves. Alstom has now promised to deliver the first units next summer. But the manufacturer — which has just issued yet another profit warning on the back of its delivery delays — must first resolve the malfunctions of the onboard IT system. The world’s number two rail manufacturer is in fact singled out by the report’s authors, particularly on its industrial organization and supply chain (see La Lettre, 20/06/25).
The three rapporteurs also examined the simplification of standards, specifications and other regulations. In France, the cycle running from the drafting of technical specifications to homologation procedures generally takes more than two years longer than in neighbouring European countries. This form of protectionism favours products designed solely for the domestic French market but limits economies of scale. The report also targets the engineers at SNCF and RATP responsible for placing TER and RER orders on behalf of the regions and of Île-de-France Mobilités (IDFM). They stand accused of imposing crushing technical specifications that stretch out train construction times. These can exceed eight years. This is a politically sensitive issue. In summer 2025, during a round of hearings with senior executives, Jean Castex — then CEO of RATP — asked to be heard in order to clear the agency of responsibility for the overruns on the “MI20” programme, the new rolling stock intended for RER Line B.
An organization overhauled
Elected officials of the transport authorities in the various regions also bear significant responsibility, notably in Île-de-France, for requiring train delivery timelines a little too closely aligned with the electoral calendar. This practice skews the rules of the game from the outset, since it forces manufacturers — keen to maximize their chances of winning tenders — to commit to unrealistic delivery dates. Another criticism levelled at elected officials: the demand for bespoke customization, which drives up the price of the trainsets.
Beyond the dusting-off of standards, the government plans to have the working group examine a potential big bang in the regional-train market. This is because the report examines an organizational overhaul. It will now be the regions — no longer SNCF and RATP — that define and purchase their trains, with the risk of fragmented orders, a driver of cost overruns.
— Marc Fressoz
Article 2: Transport Framework Law — local-government lobbies chart their course in the Senate
By Louis Cabanes
Activating their networks at the Palais du Luxembourg, associations of elected officials representing the regions, the departments and mayors are seeking to influence the allocation of revenues from future motorway concessions, and are at odds over the earmarking of part of the tax proceeds.
Photo caption: Carole Delga, President of Régions de France, and François Sauvadet, President of the Association of Departments of France. ©Éric Tschaen/Réa
Led by Carole Delga, President of the Occitanie regional council, the organization Régions de France (see La Lettre, 13/11/25) steered several amendments through the Senate during the examination of the draft framework law on transport financing. Being the first affected by this text given their competences over rail transport, the regions secured the adoption of three identical amendments — tabled by the Union centriste, Socialiste, écologiste et républicain and Écologiste – Solidarité et Territoires groups — against the opinion of the government and of rapporteur Didier Mandelli (Les Républicains). The regional presidents argued for better consideration of “fine-grained service lines across the territory within the programming of rail investments” — a major financial issue. These small lines make up a quarter of France’s rail network, providing a mesh of local coverage complementary to the major national routes. The regions feared being left out of the €2.5 billion allocation from revenues tied to future motorway-concession renewals (due in 2031 and 2036).
Conversely, the regional lobby suffered a setback in its push to organize “a national financing conference on metropolitan express regional services before 31 December 2026.” This request, advanced by Socialist, Green and Communist senators, failed to convince their right-wing colleagues — who hold the majority in the Senate — or Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot, himself from LR, who is sponsoring the text.
Departments and regions pulling in opposite directions
The Association of Departments of France (see La Lettre, 03/03/25), chaired by François Sauvadet (UDI), also sought to stake its own claim, even at the cost of stepping on the regions’ turf. A dispute pits the two lobbies against each other over the allocation of the vehicle-registration tax, worth €2 billion per year. Arguing that the regions have no competence over road matters, around twenty senators from the Rassemblement démocratique et social européen (RDSE) and Union centriste groups tabled similar amendments aimed at steering this money, proposing that it be “allocated exclusively to the departments via a national equalization fund.” During the examination of the budget, this same request had already been made by Senator Anne-Sophie Romagny (Union centriste).
The representative of the departments also teamed up with the Association of Mayors of France (AMF) to ensure that the future investment plan “explicitly” includes departmental and municipal road networks. Several amendments were tabled to this effect. Rapporteur Didier Mandelli sought to reassure his colleagues, arguing that the drafting of Article 1 of the text covered all roads, regardless of their nature. In reality, specific consideration of this point was made possible by the adoption of another amendment inspired by the Fédération nationale des travaux publics (FNTP). Centrist Senator Pierre-Antoine Lévi was behind this initiative, which secured senators’ support despite the government’s unfavourable opinion.
— Louis Cabanes
Translator’s notes / terminology anchors:
• Loi-cadre = framework law
• SERM (services express régionaux métropolitains) = metropolitan express regional services
• Desserte fine = fine-grained (local) rail service coverage
• Cahier des charges = technical specifications / tender specs
• Péréquation = (fiscal) equalization
• Homologation = type approval / certification
La Lettre — 20/04/26 | Résumé bilingue
🇫🇷 FRANÇAIS
1. Ferroviaire — rapport sous le coude du gouvernement
Un rapport de ~400 pages (Ramette/Dugué/Feugier, commandé début 2025) sur les retards chroniques de livraison des trains dort depuis janvier sur les bureaux de Philippe Tabarot (Transports) et Sébastien Martin (Industrie). Alstom épinglé : cas emblématique du TGV M (attendu depuis 2024 par la SNCF), manque à gagner commercial, dysfonctionnements informatique embarquée, critique de l’organisation industrielle. Pointé également : cycle d’homologation français (2 ans > voisins UE = protectionnisme limitant les économies d’échelle), cahiers des charges écrasants de SNCF/RATP/IDFM (construction > 8 ans). Projet de big bang : régions (et non SNCF/RATP) définiraient et achèteraient désormais leurs trains — risque de morcellement.
2. Loi-cadre transports — lobbying actif au Sénat
Régions de France (Delga) obtient 3 amendements identiques (Union centriste, PS-écolo, Écolo-Solidarité) contre avis gouvernement/rapporteur Mandelli (LR), visant la desserte fine (petites lignes = ¼ du réseau) dans les 2,5 Md€ de recettes des futures concessions autoroutières (2031/2036). Échec en revanche sur la conférence nationale SERM avant fin 2026. Départements de France (Sauvadet) et AMF s’associent via RDSE/Union centriste pour récupérer la taxe immatriculations (2 Md€/an) via fonds de péréquation + intégration explicite des réseaux départementaux/communaux.
3. Directive eaux usées UE — vote clé 30 avril
Principe pollueur-payeur appliqué pharma/cosmétique (coût estimé plusieurs Md€). Le PPE (Weber) missionne Sokol, Schenk et Liese pour assouplir le texte. CRE (via Maréchal/Fiocchi, VP ENVI) — rencontres Cosmetics Europe x2. PfE (Bardella/Knotek) — rencontres AstraZeneca + Medicines for Europe x2. Aucune alliance PPE-CRE ni PPE-PfE actée à ce stade — rupture du cordon républicain non confirmée. Renew (Hayer, 77 élus) surveillé ; Efpia + Novartis font le siège de Voiculescu. S&D (Moretti, 136 élus) peu flexible.
4. Parlement — Analyse & Action remplace Alixio
Les questeurs (Pirès Beaune/Klinkert/Tabarot) choisissent Analyse & Action (Le Rolland) pour l’outplacement des députés battus, succédant à Alixio (Soubie). Plafond 1,4 M€ sur 4 ans. FAMDRE (Caisse des dépôts) : 133 anciens en août 2024 post-dissolution ; 73 encore allocataires 2 ans après 2022.
5. Exécutif — Bercy gagne contre Beauvau sur les douanes
Loi Ripost : David Amiel (Action/Comptes publics) remporte l’arbitrage contre Laurent Nuñez (Intérieur), arbitré par Sébastien Lecornu. Amendement gouvernemental maintiendra les prérogatives douanières, forces de sécurité en subsidiaire. Engagements complémentaires : créations nettes d’emplois douane 2027-2030 (Mercosur, loi Narcotrafic). Syndicats (CFDT/CFTC, CGT, Solidaires, USD FO, UNSA/CGC) informés le 16/04.
6. Medef à Alger — reset business
Patrick Martin mène une délégation restreinte le 24/04, accueilli par Kamel Moula (Crea) et reçu par le ministre de l’industrie Yahia Bachir. Cornaquage via Michel Bisac (CCI France-Algérie). Dossiers : Renault Oran, CMA CGM (dossier ayant fait capoter la rencontre de 2025, après arrestation de Rodolphe Saadé avortée + mise en examen agent consulaire algérien). Apaisement post-départ Retailleau, relancé par Nuñez mi-février. Possible audience El Mouradia avec Tebboune en discussion.
7. CMA Média — Coupe du monde 2026 sans droits
Face au Groupe M6 (droits 54/104 matchs), CMA Média (Nedjari/RMC Sport) déploie un dispositif sans droits : “CMA Sport Center” à 800 m du MetLife Stadium (bureaux NY de CMA CGM reconvertis, 180 m², redevance 200 000 € pour label “radio officielle” Fifa), budget initial 500 k€ (huitièmes, révisable). Délocalisation “After Foot” (Brisbois/Riolo) aux USA. Umtiti consultant RMC. Brut (Darquier), BFM TV (Baille), BFM Business mobilisés. Extension empire sportif : OM, Decathlon (cyclisme, Seixas), Route du rhum, Ferrari (accord pluriannuel nov. 2025). Rumeurs rachat L’Équipe (Amaury) relancées.
🇬🇧 ENGLISH
1. Rail — damning delivery-delay report stuck in ministers’ in-tray
A ~400-page report (Ramette/Dugué/Feugier, commissioned early 2025) on chronic train delivery delays has been sitting on the desks of Tabarot (Transport) and Martin (Industry) since January. Alstom singled out: flagship TGV M case (promised to SNCF since 2024), lost commercial revenue, onboard IT malfunctions, critique of industrial organization and supply chain. Report also targets French homologation cycle (2+ years vs EU peers = de facto protectionism limiting scale economies), and excessive specs from SNCF/RATP/IDFM engineers (build cycles > 8 years). Proposed big bang: regions — not SNCF/RATP — would define and buy trains going forward, with fragmentation risk flagged.
2. Transport framework law — Senate lobbying war
Régions de France (Delga) secured 3 identical cross-party amendments (centrist, PS-Green, Green-Solidarité) against government/rapporteur Mandelli (LR) opinion, to secure fine-grained rail service (small lines = 25% of network) in the €2.5bn from future motorway-concession receipts (2031/2036 renewals). Setback on proposed national SERM financing conference by end-2026. Départements de France (Sauvadet) + AMF counter via RDSE/centrist amendments to recapture the €2bn/year vehicle-registration tax via national equalization fund + explicit inclusion of departmental/municipal road networks.
3. EU Urban Wastewater Directive — key vote 30 April
Polluter-pays principle applied to pharma/cosmetics (cost estimated several €bn). EPP (Weber) tasks Sokol, Schenk, Liese to soften text. ECR (via Maréchal/Fiocchi, ENVI VP) held two Cosmetics Europe meetings. PfE (Bardella/Knotek) met AstraZeneca + Medicines for Europe (2x). No EPP-ECR or EPP-PfE alliance secured yet — republican cordon holds for now. Renew (Hayer, 77 MEPs) under watch; Efpia + Novartis courting rapporteur Voiculescu. S&D (Moretti, 136 MEPs) likely to stay firm.
4. National Assembly — Analyse & Action replaces Alixio
The three questeurs (Pirès Beaune/Klinkert/Tabarot) picked Analyse & Action (Le Rolland) for defeated-MP outplacement, succeeding Alixio (Soubie, ex-Sarkozy social advisor). Cap €1.4m over 4 years. FAMDRE (managed by Caisse des dépôts): 133 former MPs post–2024 dissolution; 73 still receiving benefits 2 years after 2022.
5. Executive — Bercy beats Beauvau on customs powers
Ripost law: David Amiel (Public Accounts) won the arbitration vs Laurent Nuñez (Interior), refereed by Sébastien Lecornu. A government amendment will preserve customs officers’ prerogatives, with police/gendarmerie in subsidiary role only. Additional commitments: net customs hiring 2027-2030 (Mercosur trade deal, new anti-narcotics law). Unions (CFDT/CFTC, CGT, Solidaires, USD FO, UNSA/CGC) briefed 16 April.
6. Medef in Algiers — business reset
Patrick Martin leads a narrow delegation on 24 April, hosted by Kamel Moula (Crea) and received by Industry Minister Yahia Bachir. Michel Bisac (CCI France-Algérie) coordinating. Files on table: Renault Oran restart, CMA CGM (the very file that torpedoed the 2025 meeting after Saadé visit was scrapped amid arrest of Algerian consular officer in Paris). Thaw followed Retailleau’s departure; Nuñez rebuilt security cooperation in mid-February. Potential El Mouradia audience with Tebboune under discussion.
7. CMA Média — playing the 2026 World Cup without rights
Against Groupe M6 (rights to 54/104 matches, all France games), CMA Média (Nedjari/RMC Sport) rolls out a no-rights playbook: “CMA Sport Center” 800m from MetLife Stadium (converting CMA CGM’s NY offices, 180 m², €200k fee for Fifa “official radio” label — privileged player access), initial €500k budget (Round of 16 base case, revisable). “After Foot” (Brisbois/Riolo) relocating to US. Umtiti as RMC consultant. Brut (Darquier), BFM TV (Baille), BFM Business all mobilized. Sports-empire extension: OM, Decathlon (cycling, with prospect Paul Seixas), Route du rhum, Ferrari (multi-year Nov 2025 deal). L’Équipe (Amaury) takeover rumors revived.
Key reads for positioning / Lectures clés:
• Alstom — nouveau warning résultats + rapport critique qui pourrait sortir = overhang court terme / fresh profit warning + critical report overhang short-term
• Pharma/cosmétique — vote 30/04 binaire, surveiller les défections Renew / binary 30 April vote, watch Renew defections
• CMA CGM (Saadé) — expansion média/sport confirmée, rumeurs L’Équipe à suivre / media-sports empire expansion confirmed, L’Équipe rumors live
• Algérie — ouverture business timide mais réelle, dossiers Renault/CMA CGM au cœur / tentative but real business opening, Renault/CMA CGM at center
>>> Up
* Air Products Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $350
* Arkema Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 64 euros
* Atlas Copco Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn (+)
* Commerzbank Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 42 euros (+)
* Computacenter Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 3,800 pence
* Ence Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 2.70 euros
* Fastned GDRs Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 40 euros
* Peach Property Raised to Buy at Research Partners
* Neste Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 26.50 euros
* Neste Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 26.50 euros
* UBS Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 34 Swiss francs
* Verisure Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 15 euros
* Viridien Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 200 euros
>>> Down
>>> Down
* Arkema Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 62 euros
* Aker Solutions Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 49 kroner
* BBVA Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 20.50 euros
* Deutsche Bank Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 32 euros (+)
* Essity Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 215 kronor
* Hunting Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 600 pence
* Julius Baer Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 71 Swiss francs (+)
* Loomis Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 546 kronor
* Loomis Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 546 kronor
* LPKF Cut to Hold at MP Capital Markets; PT 12.30 euros (+)
* NatWest Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 650 pence
* Pihlajalinna Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 14.50 euros
* Saipem Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 5 euros
* Sanofi Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 85 euros
* Sanofi ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $50
* SBM Offshore Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 46 euros
* SKF Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 235 kronor
* Swedish Logistic Property Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities
* Vale ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $17 (+)
>>> Initiation
>>> Initiation
* Bittium Rated New Sell at Danske Bank Markets; PT 33 euros
* Capital Tankers Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Capital Tankers Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Cornish Metals Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 213 pence
* Lumibird Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 30 euros
* Melrose Industries Reinstated Neutral at BNP Paribas
* TGS Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT 170 kroner
* Wienerberger Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 31 euros
>>> Call
* Computacenter Raised at Peel Hunt on Higher Pipeline Conviction
>>> Call
* Computacenter Raised at Peel Hunt on Higher Pipeline Conviction
* Essity Cut at JPMorgan, Remy Among New Negative Catalyst Watches
UCG/CBK — "A New Chapter" (20-Apr-26): UCG frames alt plan vs Momentum ahead of tender
UniCredit published today a 33-slide outside-in deck titled "A New Chapter", independently from and ahead of its voluntary tender offer on all Commerzbank ordinary shares. Disclaimer: not an MAR-compliant investment recommendation nor an offering document. Below the main elements for the recipient.
1/ DIAGNOSIS — Operating underperformance, overvalued
- CBK lagged SX7E and UCG across Net Rev/RWA, C/I, RoTE in 2021-24 and 2025, with Germany as key drag
- FY24 vs plan: 1.2bn cost miss (25%), 200m fees miss, NII beat from rate tailwinds — i.e. delivery sustained by macro, not transformation
- FY25 vs Momentum: ~200m cost miss offset by ~130m lower LLPs, ~100m lower integration costs (net of tax), intl loan growth +24% vs DE +1%, replica NII +200m vs Momentum (total NII beat ~500m)
- Valuation: P/E 2yr-fwd at 8.2x = SX7E, premium vs UCG 7.8x; +20pp re-rating vs sector since 10-Sept-24 stake disclosure — UCG: not fundamentals-driven
2/ MOMENTUM (consensus FY28)
Net Rev 14.0bn / Costs 7.0bn / NP 4.5bn / C/I 47 / RoTE 15 / Net Rev/RWA 7.6
UCG flags: ~50% of FY24-28 rev growth from replica; zero integration cost 2026-28; marginal overlays (150m as of 4Q25); no further invest planned
3/ COMMERZBANK UNLOCKED (standalone)
FY28: Net Rev/RWA c.8.9 (+1.3pp) / C/I c.40 (-7pp) / RoTE >19 (+5pp) / Net Rev c.13.6bn / Costs c.5.7bn / NP c.5.1bn (+0.6)
FY30 dir.: Net Rev >15bn / Costs <6bn / NP c.6.0bn / C/I c.37 / RoTE c.23
+0.8bn pre-tax GOP / 1.7bn investments (IT, channels, pre-pensioning, reskilling) / 0.5bn upfront coverage
Six levers: Refocus DE-Mittelstand-PL / Redesign intl network / Invest+efficiencies / Capital discipline / Client journey upgrade / Tech-AI transformation
4/ COMBINATION (HVB + CBK)
FY30 DE: Net Rev/RWA >9 / C/I c.32 / RoAC >30 / Net Rev >18bn / Costs <6bn / NP c.8.5bn
FY30 Group: Net Rev/RWA >9 / C/I c.30 / RoTE >25 / Net Rev c.45bn / Costs <14.5bn / NP c.21bn
Incremental: +1.1bn annual pre-tax value 2030+ / 1.6bn addl invest
Perimeter: >600 branches, c.8% DE loan mkt share, 14+1 federated banks, >35m clients, >130bn mcap
5/ MYTH vs REALITY — UCG rebuttals
- "15,000 DE job losses" (Werning, 17-Mar) → c.7k FTE reduction DE, 2k in combo case; 60% savings from non-HR/non-core intl network, 40% non-business central functions
- "No value creation" (CFO Schmitt, 15-Apr) → +1.2bn incr NP / +25% vs Momentum, +c.10pp RoTE
- "Loss of DE independence" → DE = Group's #1 country by NP, c.95% local decisions, open governance
- "Execution risk" → CBK standalone until 2028; UCG track >100 integrations, Alpha RO <9 months
- "Intl network can't be improved" → UCG 2021-25: -64% costs, +16% rev, -29% avg RWA; 2x CBK trade finance with leaner footprint; only c.15% of DE flows route via CBK's Africa/LatAm presence
6/ TRADE / POSITIONING
- Escalation toolkit ahead of tender — CBK Board under pressure to engage or upgrade Momentum
- Important mechanics: any CBK guidance upgrade on tailwinds shifts BOTH Unlocked and Combination outputs up in parallel — does not close UCG's structural-gap argument
- CBK premium vs SX7E/UCG increasingly exposed if 2026 delivery disappoints on replica / intl growth
- Watch: offer document for terms & exchange ratio, CBK response, BaFin/ECB positioning, German political reaction
UniCredit published today a 33-slide outside-in deck titled "A New Chapter", independently from and ahead of its voluntary tender offer on all Commerzbank ordinary shares. Disclaimer: not an MAR-compliant investment recommendation nor an offering document. Below the main elements for the recipient.
1/ DIAGNOSIS — Operating underperformance, overvalued
- CBK lagged SX7E and UCG across Net Rev/RWA, C/I, RoTE in 2021-24 and 2025, with Germany as key drag
- FY24 vs plan: 1.2bn cost miss (25%), 200m fees miss, NII beat from rate tailwinds — i.e. delivery sustained by macro, not transformation
- FY25 vs Momentum: ~200m cost miss offset by ~130m lower LLPs, ~100m lower integration costs (net of tax), intl loan growth +24% vs DE +1%, replica NII +200m vs Momentum (total NII beat ~500m)
- Valuation: P/E 2yr-fwd at 8.2x = SX7E, premium vs UCG 7.8x; +20pp re-rating vs sector since 10-Sept-24 stake disclosure — UCG: not fundamentals-driven
2/ MOMENTUM (consensus FY28)
Net Rev 14.0bn / Costs 7.0bn / NP 4.5bn / C/I 47 / RoTE 15 / Net Rev/RWA 7.6
UCG flags: ~50% of FY24-28 rev growth from replica; zero integration cost 2026-28; marginal overlays (150m as of 4Q25); no further invest planned
3/ COMMERZBANK UNLOCKED (standalone)
FY28: Net Rev/RWA c.8.9 (+1.3pp) / C/I c.40 (-7pp) / RoTE >19 (+5pp) / Net Rev c.13.6bn / Costs c.5.7bn / NP c.5.1bn (+0.6)
FY30 dir.: Net Rev >15bn / Costs <6bn / NP c.6.0bn / C/I c.37 / RoTE c.23
+0.8bn pre-tax GOP / 1.7bn investments (IT, channels, pre-pensioning, reskilling) / 0.5bn upfront coverage
Six levers: Refocus DE-Mittelstand-PL / Redesign intl network / Invest+efficiencies / Capital discipline / Client journey upgrade / Tech-AI transformation
4/ COMBINATION (HVB + CBK)
FY30 DE: Net Rev/RWA >9 / C/I c.32 / RoAC >30 / Net Rev >18bn / Costs <6bn / NP c.8.5bn
FY30 Group: Net Rev/RWA >9 / C/I c.30 / RoTE >25 / Net Rev c.45bn / Costs <14.5bn / NP c.21bn
Incremental: +1.1bn annual pre-tax value 2030+ / 1.6bn addl invest
Perimeter: >600 branches, c.8% DE loan mkt share, 14+1 federated banks, >35m clients, >130bn mcap
5/ MYTH vs REALITY — UCG rebuttals
- "15,000 DE job losses" (Werning, 17-Mar) → c.7k FTE reduction DE, 2k in combo case; 60% savings from non-HR/non-core intl network, 40% non-business central functions
- "No value creation" (CFO Schmitt, 15-Apr) → +1.2bn incr NP / +25% vs Momentum, +c.10pp RoTE
- "Loss of DE independence" → DE = Group's #1 country by NP, c.95% local decisions, open governance
- "Execution risk" → CBK standalone until 2028; UCG track >100 integrations, Alpha RO <9 months
- "Intl network can't be improved" → UCG 2021-25: -64% costs, +16% rev, -29% avg RWA; 2x CBK trade finance with leaner footprint; only c.15% of DE flows route via CBK's Africa/LatAm presence
6/ TRADE / POSITIONING
- Escalation toolkit ahead of tender — CBK Board under pressure to engage or upgrade Momentum
- Important mechanics: any CBK guidance upgrade on tailwinds shifts BOTH Unlocked and Combination outputs up in parallel — does not close UCG's structural-gap argument
- CBK premium vs SX7E/UCG increasingly exposed if 2026 delivery disappoints on replica / intl growth
- Watch: offer document for terms & exchange ratio, CBK response, BaFin/ECB positioning, German political reaction
>>> Up
* Air Products Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT $350
* Arkema Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 64 euros
* Computacenter Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 3,800 pence
* Ence Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 2.70 euros
* Fastned GDRs Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 40 euros
* Peach Property Raised to Buy at Research Partners
* Neste Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 26.50 euros
* Neste Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 26.50 euros
* UBS Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 34 Swiss francs
* Verisure Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 15 euros
* Viridien Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 200 euros
>>> Down
>>> Down
* Arkema Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 62 euros
* Aker Solutions Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 49 kroner
* BBVA Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 20.50 euros
* Essity Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 215 kronor
* Hunting Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 600 pence
* Loomis Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 546 kronor
* Loomis Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 546 kronor
* NatWest Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 650 pence
* Pihlajalinna Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 14.50 euros
* Saipem Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 5 euros
* Sanofi Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 85 euros
* Sanofi ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $50
* SBM Offshore Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 46 euros
* SKF Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 235 kronor
* Swedish Logistic Property Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities
>>> Initiation
* Capital Tankers Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
>>> Initiation
* Capital Tankers Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities
* Cornish Metals Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 213 pence
* Lumibird Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 30 euros
* Melrose Industries Reinstated Neutral at BNP Paribas
* TGS Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT 170 kroner
* Wienerberger Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 31 euros
>>> Call
* Computacenter Raised at Peel Hunt on Higher Pipeline Conviction
>>> Call
* Computacenter Raised at Peel Hunt on Higher Pipeline Conviction
* Essity Cut at JPMorgan, Remy Among New Negative Catalyst Watches
Oil jumped and US equity-index futures retreated as traders turned cautious following a weekend flare-up in US-Iran tensions, curbing optimism that strains in the Middle East were easing. Brent rose 5.4% to $95.25 per barrel after the US Navy seized an Iranian ship during a chaotic weekend that saw Tehran firing at vessels and reimposing controls in the Strait of Hormuz. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% after the underlying index closed at a record high Friday following Iran’s earlier declaration that the vital waterway was “completely open.” Treasuries dropped across the curve on concern higher oil prices will stoke inflation. The dollar — the haven of choice during the conflict — edged up after falling over the past three weeks on hopes for an end to the war. Even so, most of Monday’s relatively modest moves returned markets to last week’s levels, when expectations of a diplomatic resolution had lifted sentiment. MSCI’s Asian share benchmark rose 0.6% with chipmakers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and SK Hynix Inc. contributing most to gains. A gauge of emerging market equities also fully recovered its war-related losses. Renewed strains and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to reintroduce volatility into markets after a broad unwinding of war-driven risk premiums in recent weeks. With the two-week ceasefire set to expire Tuesday, the focus is shifting to whether the US and Iran can resume negotiations to ease tensions and reopen the key waterway after initial talks in Islamabad failed. President Donald Trump and Iranian officials offered disparate views on the next stage of the war, casting uncertainty over whether the two sides would meet for peace talks with the ceasefire set to expire in the coming days. Iran signaled it may not join a second round of talks this week while the US maintains a naval blockade, hardening a standoff that had appeared to thaw on Friday and sparked a broad rally in stocks. Trump, who on Friday said a deal with Iran was all but agreed, threatened by Sunday morning to destroy every power plant and bridge in Iran if negotiations fail. The whiplash underscores how much of last week’s rally was built on hope rather than resolution. In other corners of the market, gold fell 0.8% to $4,790 an ounce and silver declined 1%. Bitcoin was a touch weaker at around $74,500. The Treasury 10-year yield rose two basis points to 4.27%. European bond futures edged lower. European natural gas futures surged as much as 11% on Monday as Tehran on Saturday again closed the chokepoint, after it said a US blockade of Iran-linked ships violated the ceasefire agreement. Earlier on Friday, the S&P 500 capped a third straight week of gains of more than 3% and is set for its biggest monthly advance since 2020. Gauges in Taiwan, Singapore and China’s CSI 300 Index had all reversed losses that came after the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. South Korea’s equity benchmark Kospi advanced as much as 1.4% on Monday, wiping out the losses incurred since the start of the war.
Nikkei +1.04% Hang Seng +0.82% CSI +0.54% Shanghai +0.67% Shenzen +0.63%
Eur$ 1.1753 CNH 6.8188 CNY 6.8194 JPY 158.89 GBP 1.3505 CHF 0.7822 RUB 75.9161 TRY 44.8705 WTI$ 88.95 +6.08% Gold 4,794 -0.75% BTC 74,300 -0.19% ETH 2,270 +0-0.46
S&P -0.71% Nasdaq -0.74% EuroStoxx -1.33% FTSE -0.47% Dax -1.36% SMI -0.69%
Macro :
- US Extends License Authorizing Sale of Some Russian Oil
- US Weighs Tougher Auto Import Rules to Accelerate Reshoring
- Germany’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Is Dropping Weapons Exclusions
- US Seizes Iranian Ship in Blockade, Casting Doubt on Peace Talks
- Asia Hedge Funds Log Losses From Iran War Before Ceasefire
- Bulgaria Hands Russia-Friendly Radev Landslide Election Win
- Australian Pension Chiefs Target Private Assets in European Trip
- Goldman Calms Private Credit, Blue Owl Less So: Paul J. Davies
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
- AA US : Alcoa Is Close to a Deal to Sell Smelter Site to Bitcoin Miner
- AML US : American Airlines Says Not Interested in a Merger With United
- OWL US : Blue Owl Co-CEOs’ Personal Loans No Longer Backed by Firm Shares
- BRK/A US : Greg Abel Has Been Leading Berkshire for 100 Days. Things Are Already Changing. -- WSJ
- BPT LN : Bridgepoint Said to Raise €6 Billion at New Fund’s First Close
- 1211 HK : Lutnick Shuts Down Talk of Any Chinese Investment in US Autos
- CA FP : Carrefour Sells Minority CarrefourSA Stake in Turkey to Aydin
- CBK GY : UniCredit: Commerzbank ‘Insufficiently Prepared’ for Challenges, UniCredit: Sees €21B Net in 2030 From Commerzbank Tie-Up
- KLRA US : Obesity Firm Kailera Therapeutics Up 63% After $625 Million IPO
- CBK GY : UniCredit Talks With Regulators on Commerzbank Capital Treatment
- GSK LN : GSK Granted FDA Orphan Drug Status for Momelotinib
- GSK LN : 4DMedical Signs GSK Contract, Gets UK Clearance For CT:VQ Tech
- INTC US : Why Intel Stock Is a Buy Even After a 220% Rally - Barron's
- LMT US : Peru Delays $2 Billion F-16 Deal, Drawing US Backlash
- HLUNB DC : Lundbeck Reports New Results From INFUSE Migraine Study
- MDM FP : Maisons du Monde Delays Results as Search for Backer Continues
- MDM FP : Maisons du Monde Delays Results as Search for Backer Continues
- MBG GY : Samsung SDI Signs Deal to Supply EV Batteries to Mercedes-Benz
- ML FP : From Moon buggies to new materials, Michelin reinvents its future - FT
- MOWI NO : Mowi Prelim 1Q Ebit About €221m, Est. €224.9m
- PM US : Philip Morris International Says FDA Reauthorizes IQOS
- REP SM : *REPSOL TO SEEK €125M FROM UTILITIES OVER BLACKOUT: EXPANSION
- RHM GY : Germany’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Is Dropping Weapons Exclusions
- RUI FP : Rubis Said to Weigh Combination With Trafigura’s Puma Fuel Unit
- SPM IM : Saipem Wins €700M Eni Contract For New Biorefinery in Sicily
- CRM US : Marc Benioff Says the Software Bears Are All Wrong About Salesforce -- WSJ
- SAN FP : Sanofi Says Its Covid Jab Has Better Tolerability Than Moderna’s
- SIE GY : Siemens Threatens to Skip Europe for AI Spending Due to Rules
- SIE GY : Vulcan Awards Siemens ~€40m Supply Pact for Lionheart Project
- TGS NO : TGS Extends Ocean Bottom Node Contract For Three Years
- BLD US : QXO Acquires TopBuild For $17 Billion In Cash-Stock Deal
- UCB BB : UCB to Buy Neurona Therapeutics in Deal Valued At Up to $1.15b
- UCG IM : UniCredit Talks With Regulators on Commerzbank Capital Treatment
- UCG IM : UniCredit: Commerzbank ‘Insufficiently Prepared’ for Challenges, UniCredit: Sees €21B Net in 2030 From Commerzbank Tie-Up
- VAN BB : Van de Velde Names Marc Dambremez CEO From August 31
- VAN BB : Van de Velde Names Marc Dambremez CEO From August 31
- VIE FP : Veolia chief driven ‘nuts’ by UK water utilities’ failure to use AI to detect leaks - FT
- V US : France’s CB seeks to lead European fightback against Visa and Mastercard & FT Article Full
- WCH GY : Wacker Chemie Prelim 1Q Ebitda About EU173M, Est. EU148.3M, Wacker Chemie Ebitda Beats as Orders Moved Forward
- Var Energi (J4V TH) +5.5%
- Aker BP (ARC TH) +5.3%
- Equinor (DNQ TH) +4.2%
- BP (BPE5 TH) +3.1%
- Investor AB (IVSD TH) +2.9%
- K+S (SDF TH) +2.8%
- TotalEnergies (TOTB TH) +2.5%
- Shell (R6C0 TH) +2.4%
- Repsol (REP TH) +2.1%
- CSG NV (NW0 TH) +1.6%
- Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -3.7%
- Ryanair (RY4C TH) -3.7%
- Abivax (2X1 TH) -3.7%
- AUTO1 (AG1 TH) -3.8%
- Lufthansa (LHA TH) -3.8%
- Carnival Plc (POH1 TH) -3.8%
- Infineon (IFX TH) -3.9%
- TUI (TUI1 TH) -4%
- EasyJet (EJT1 TH) -4.5%
- Stellantis (8TI TH) -4.6%