>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Deutsche Boerse (DB1 TH) +1.2%
MDAX:
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +3.3%
    • Uber Buys More Stake in Delivery Hero in €270m Deal: FT
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +2.1%
    • Hensoldt Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 90 euros
SDAX:
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.4%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) -1%

FT : Merger rules to favour scale and innovation, says EU competition chief

Merger rules to favour scale and innovation, says EU competition chief
Teresa Ribera confirms consumer interest will no longer be main criterion in approving or rejecting corporate deals

Revamped EU merger rules will allow the bloc’s enforcers to take into account factors including scale, innovation and sustainability when approving or rejecting corporate deals, according to the competition commissioner.

Teresa Ribera told the FT that the EU wants to encourage “pro-competitive mergers that allow European players to grow and accelerate innovation and have the scale to be relevant players in global markets”.

The changes, first reported by the FT, would mark the most radical shake-up since the 2000s, when competition regulators put the effect of mergers on consumers at the heart of their decisions.

The new merger guidelines are set to be published in the coming weeks as part of efforts to revitalise Europe’s flagging economy in the race against global rivals such as China and the US. The updated rules are highly anticipated by executives and investors looking at future merger opportunities.

The telecom industry especially has been pushing for looser rules, with companies such as Orange and Vodafone arguing that restrictive merger rules are holding them back from growth in domestic markets. 

A 2019 decision to block the merger of Germany’s Siemens and France’s Alstom has been cast as emblematic of the EU’s failure to allow the creation of “European champions”, in that case capable of rivalling China’s CCRC.

In “today’s global markets”, Ribera argued, it was important to give greater weight to long-term benefits such as innovation, resilience and sustainability, even if they take more time to materialise.

“We need to develop a firm defence against external chaos,” Ribera said, citing the importance of “enlargement of the scale of companies . . . to compete in global markets”.

The drafting of the updated guidelines, which serve as the framework antitrust rule book for all companies operating in the EU’s 450mn-strong consumer market, has pitted more corporate-friendly officials against those who believe consumer protection must remain the fundamental focus of merger decisions.

While Ribera, a Spanish socialist, stressed that “it is very obvious that price is still something very important for the industrials, for the consumers,” she said the bloc’s competition enforcers would take relevant benefits of a merger on the longer term more into account, as long as they were more than “wishful thinking”.

“It is important to provide sufficient evidence or at least probability of those benefits,” she added.

The bloc’s antitrust chief said the new framework would not only offer more clarity to companies but also encourage earlier discussions between companies and the EU’s competition regulators.

However, she cautioned that consolidation alone cannot solve Europe’s struggling economy and its much-vaunted but underperforming single market.

“It is a piece in a mosaic when thinking about competitiveness,” she said, pointing out that potential consolidation had to go hand in hand with the integration of the single market, as “one thing cannot substitute the other.”

Keeping the level playing field for companies remained key, she said. Ribera acknowledged a “strong temptation” to respond to global rivals who did not respect the global rules to do the same, but insisted the EU’s strength lay in complying and setting a rules-based global system while adapting its tools to new realities.

“We have very important leverage when saying if you’re interested to develop your business in this very interesting market that pays well for high-quality things, we have not only the opportunity but the responsibility to set the rules,” she said.

The upcoming merger guidelines coincide with the appointment earlier this week of Anthony Whelan, a former aide to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, as its new top civil servant for competition.

Ribera said it was vital to her that the new head of the bloc’s competition division was someone who knew competition, but also had experience beyond that field. “And someone I could trust and that I felt was respected by the team. The atmosphere of mutual trust was quite an important thing,” she said.

FT : Iran war drives Germany towards fourth year of stagnation

Iran war drives Germany towards fourth year of stagnation
Berlin set to halve GDP growth forecast to 0.5% as surging energy prices blunt €1tn spending push

The impact of the Iran war on energy markets is dashing hopes of a German recovery, with Berlin poised to cut its growth forecast from 1 per cent to 0.5 per cent this year.

The expected downgrade, according to people familiar with the matter, would leave Europe’s largest economy on the brink of a fourth consecutive year of de facto stagnation, as surging energy prices blunt a €1tn debt-fuelled spending push.

“The economic development in Germany lost noticeable momentum in the first quarter against the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East,” the German economy ministry warned earlier this week.

The modest growth forecast this year will be mainly driven by “the impulse from public spending”, as private investments, exports and domestic consumption stagnate, said a government insider.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned on Monday that the economy would feel the impact of the US war on Iran “for a long time to come”, as he announced a €1.6bn package of short-term measures to alleviate rising fuel prices.

“We find ourselves in a very difficult economic and political situation given the large number of crises and wars around the world,” he said.

Commerzbank chief economist Jörg Krämer told the FT that it was “increasingly likely” that 2026 “will be another lost year in terms of growth”. Adjusted for the higher number of working days this year, his updated forecast stands at just 0.3 per cent, compared with 0.4 per cent on a working-day adjusted basis in 2025. “This is basically a black zero,” said Krämer.

While last year marked the first increase in GDP since 2022, the level of activity was still below the level seen back then and barely higher than before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020.

“Stagnation is the new normal,” said Clemens Fuest, head of Munich-based think-tank Ifo. “We have long been used to the expectation that growth will resume at some point, but unfortunately this cannot be taken for granted anymore.”

Fuest said energy costs were exacerbating deeply rooted challenges including a shrinking workforce, limited productivity growth and ballooning red tape.


Government insiders have voiced concerns and in some cases a sense of helplessness about the external shocks — first US tariffs and now high energy prices — repeatedly derailing plans to revive growth and complicate difficult reforms of the welfare state.

One said that the problem was not just persistent uncertainty but also the sheer unpredictability of global events.

This is weighing on private investment decisions and consumer sentiment, they added, with inflation at least temporarily likely to rise above the ECB’s medium-term target of 2 per cent.

Before the start of the Iran war, economists had hoped that Merz’s €1tn spending push over the next decade to improve Germany’s armed forces and its ailing infrastructure would kick-start a wider recovery.

But Goldman Sachs economists estimate that the increase in government spending will boost GDP by just 0.5 percentage points this year.

The Iran war has dashed hopes that the spending push can create “a spirit of optimism” in the private sector that triggers a sustained economic upswing, Goldman economist Sven Jari Stehn told the FT.

The sharp rise in energy prices and economic uncertainty since the start of the Iran war in late February hit an economy that was still reeling from the 2022 shock after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Fuest said. “Germany’s energy-intensive industry is still weakened by the earlier strains,” he said.


Production in the chemical and pharma industry — one of the backbones of German industry — is down to levels last seen in late 2004 and has been sidelined for the past three years, according to Bundesbank data.

“The situation is serious, and it has not improved since the beginning of the war in the Middle East,” Henrik Meincke, the chief economist of the German Chemicals Industry Association, told the FT. “Companies are already closing production sites as they are struggling with low capacity utilisation and high margin pressure.”

Over the first quarter, insolvencies in Germany shot up to the highest number in more than 20 years and exceeded the levels seen during the global financial crisis of 2009. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of unemployed has risen in 41 of the last 46 months and is 30 per cent higher than before the start of the pandemic in early 2020. 

Not all economists have written 2026 off completely. “If the government is able to deliver its fiscal package, the stimulus will be so big that it will be reflected in higher consumption and employment,” said Christian Schulz, chief economist of Allianz Global Investors. 

FT : Data centre delays threaten to choke AI expansion

Data centre delays threaten to choke AI expansion
Almost 40% of such builds in US risk hold-ups, including projects tied to Microsoft and OpenAI

Delays to a swath of new US data centres threaten to slow the rollout of AI by the world’s biggest tech companies, with almost 40 per cent of all projects due this year at risk of falling behind schedule.

Major projects for Microsoft, OpenAI and other tech groups are likely to miss completion dates by more than three months, according to data shared with the FT by SynMax, a satellite and AI analytics group.

More than a dozen industry executives said campuses targeting hundreds of megawatts are being held up by permitting hurdles and chronic shortages of labour, power and equipment.

The bottlenecks are emerging as a key constraint on how quickly companies can turn vast spending on AI into revenue, raising concerns that billions in planned investment will take longer than expected to generate returns.

Hyperscalers are racing to build ever-larger data centres, pushing to bring facilities online that will draw at least 1 gigawatt of electricity — roughly a nuclear reactor’s output.


A handful of such projects are expected to complete this year, according to research group Epoch, including developments by Amazon Web Services, Meta and Elon Musk’s xAI.

But likely delays at many others highlight a growing gap between the scale of investment in AI and operators’ ability to deliver the infrastructure needed to support it.

“Financing at this scale is hard,” said Wes Cummins, chief executive of data centre operator Applied Digital. “Logistics are hard. Construction and operations are hard.”

To assess likely completion dates, SynMax uses satellite imagery to track construction progress from land clearing to foundation work. It cross-checks this against industry benchmarks compiled by IIR Energy, an industry research group, which tracks public statements, permit documents and conducts on-the-ground interviews.

One of the most prominent is a 1.4GW campus in Shackelford County, Texas, being developed for Oracle, which will in turn equip it with chips and provide computing capacity to OpenAI.

The 1,200-acre site is expected to host 10 buildings. Vantage Data Centers, the group constructing the site, in August said the first building was due for delivery in the second half of 2026.

Satellite imagery shows land cleared for six planned facilities, but as of early April only one showed signs of development. SynMax estimates the earliest possible delivery date for the first building is December, while a timetable in line with most comparable projects would push it out to late 2027.


Other OpenAI-linked campuses also appear to be progressing slowly. In Milam County, Texas, where Greg Brockman last month said a 1.2GW site was “taking shape”, satellite imagery shows construction has begun on only one facility. Of the group’s major Texas projects, only one in Abilene is expected to complete this year.

OpenAI said: “Our historic data centre build-out is on schedule and we will accelerate from here. In partnership with Oracle, SB Energy and a broader ecosystem of partners, we are delivering rapid progress in Abilene, Shackelford County and Milam County in Texas.”

Oracle said: “Each data centre we’re developing for OpenAI is moving forward on time, and construction is proceeding according to plan.”

SB Energy said: “The Milam County Data Center is on schedule and on pace to be one of the fastest data centres of its kind ever delivered.”

Two construction executives working on OpenAI-linked projects said there were not enough specialist workers, from electricians to pipe fitters, to meet demand across the build-out as companies race to construct clusters of increasingly large and complex facilities.

Strained grid capacity and shortages of equipment such as gas turbines and transformers are also causing delays. Remote locations are pushing labour costs up as much as 30 per cent, they added.

Doug O’Laughlin, president of SemiAnalysis, said the concentration of projects in some regions was intensifying competition even between providers serving the same end customer.

“OpenAI is [in effect] competing with OpenAI,” he said. “Workers are moving between projects in search of better pay cheques.”

“For those who stick around, even if they are doing double shifts, it’s going to be hard to meet these schedules,” he added.

Nebius, a so-called neocloud that builds computing capacity for clients, struck a deal with Microsoft last year to make a 300MW facility in Vineland, New Jersey, successfully completing the first tranche of capacity by the end of 2025.

Satellite imagery suggests the latest phases of the project are progressing more slowly, with structures in place but timelines slipping. Thermal imagery taken at the site indicates that equipment has yet to come online.


The Vineland project has faced permitting challenges and local opposition. A formal public comment process has also been requested, a step that typically extends timelines and signals growing community resistance.

Microsoft declined to comment.

Nebius said: “All capacity tranches under our agreement with Microsoft to date have been delivered on time, and we currently expect to deliver the remaining tranches on schedule. As of now we are not aware of issues that would materially affect this.”

SynMax estimates more than 60 per cent of projects scheduled for next year have yet to begin construction, adding to concerns over delays to the industry’s expansion pipeline.

“There’s a focus on speed and development brushing up against regulatory lag,” said Josh Price, an energy director at Capstone, a strategy firm. “The scale and complexity of these projects is necessarily going to lead to more scrutiny and potentially delays.”

Cummins at Applied Digital said: “We’re going to see a number of blow-ups and delays this year. My focus is on making sure it’s not us.”

>>> US After Hours Summary: NFLX -9.1% lower on earnings/guidance; AA -3.6%, KNX

After Hours Summary: NFLX -9.1% lower on earnings/guidance; AA -3.6%, KNX -2.8% also lower; NI +2.4% on new energy deal with Alphabet

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CNS +0.6%, WAFD +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: BZAI +26.6% (new contract with NeoTensr to generate up to $50 mln in revs in first year), NI +2.4% (new long-term energy agreement with a subsidiary of Alphabet), RDNT +2% (GEHC expands mammography collaboration with RadNet's DeepHealth subsidiary), GEHC +1.1% (GEHC expands mammography collaboration with RadNet's DeepHealth subsidiary), BVN +0.9% (Q1 operations report), SCSC +0.8% (advances converged communications strategy with dedicated CX team and Arrow McLaren partnership), CSWC +0.8% (expects Q4 net investment income of $0.59-0.60/sh), ASTS +0.1% (BlueBird 7 to launch on April 19), WFG +0.1% (provides update on US Dept of Commerce softwood lumber duties)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: NFLX -9.1%, AA -3.6%, KNX -2.8%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: TRVI -8.5% (commences $150 mln common stock offering), CENX -0.9% (commences expanded production at Mt. Holly smelter), DNUT -0.8% (expansion into the Netherlands), GTLB -0.2% (releases GitLab 18.11), RTX -0.2% (awarded a $904.6 mln modification to US Army contract)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • QDEL -16.5% (guidance), TSM -2.3%, SLG -2.2%, TRV -1.6%, WIT -1.3%, CFG -0.9%, RTO -0.8%, KEY -0.7%, IIIN -0.6%
Other news:
  • GEVO -10% (withdraws from Department of Energy financing process)
  • SFST -5% (prices offering of 1.05 mln shares of common stock $54.00 per share)
  • ORC -2.9% (announces April 2026 monthly dividend, estimated Q1 results and 2026 RMBS portfolio characteristics)
  • YORW -2.8% (stock offering)
  • NKLR -2.2% (to host business update as 10-K filing nears completion; expects to receive a Nasdaq notice related to delayed 10-K filing)
  • ESEA -2% (3-year charter contract extension for its feeder containership)
  • OC -1.2% (amends agreement with Praana Group for sale of glass reinforcements business)
  • JCI -1% (report it's weighing $4.5 bln in divestitures, according to Bloomberg)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • CDNA +8.6% (guidance; also to divest Lab Products business), PPG +6.2% (guidance; also price increases across product lines; completes Ozark Materials acquisition), JBHT +2%, MRSH +1.8%, PEP +1.3%, USB +1.1%
Other news:
  • ANL +19.3% (entered into a securities purchase agreement for a private investment in public equity financing that is expected to result in gross proceeds of ~$150.0 mln)
  • MGTX +8.8% (three-year data from the Phase 1 AQUAx clinical study of AAV-hAQP1; entered into an asset purchase agreement with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to acquire all interests in bota-vec for the treatment of XLRP)
  • TII +8.5% (extends Kilbourne Graphite mineralization, advances germanium and the 2026 multi-commodity exploration strategy)
  • TLSA +8% (Publication of Positive Data Demonstrating Intranasal Anti-CD3 Antibody Attenuates Long COVID Neuroinflammation and Improves Cognitive Function)
  • VOYG +7.4% (selected by NASA for private astronaut mission)
  • NUCL +7.1% (provides first quarter 2026 corporate update)
  • EVTL +7.1% (announced its successful completion of a two-way piloted transition flight under the direct oversight of the UK Civil Aviation Authority)
  • BMM +6.2% (drilling activities at its Nussir Copper-Gold-Silver Project)
  • TTE +3.3% (reports Q1 main indicators)
  • UUUU +2.3% (appoints Ross Bhappu as CEO, succeeding Mark Chalmers)
  • SVRA +2.2% (FDA extends review period for the molgramostim BLA)
  • EQH +2.1% (Equitable Holdings, in consultation with Corebridge Financial (CRBG), is exploring undertaking repurchases of shares of its common stock prior to closing of the parties' pending merger)
  • ALGT +2% (achieves key regulatory milestone with DOT approval)
  • NKTX +1.7% (agreement with FDA on key changes to the ongoing Ntrust-1 and Ntrust-2 clinical trials)
  • ECX +1.7% (appoints Lone Fønss Schrøder as chairperson)
  • ZIM +1.5% (CEO to step down)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • MCBS +9%, VOYG +7.4%, CDNA +7%, NUCL +5%, AMCI +4%, TTE +3.1%, WVE +2.5%, UUUU +2.4%, PPG +2.4%, LYV +2.3%, EVTL +2.3%, NKTX +2.1%, ALGT +2%, ESE +1.8%, ZIM +1.8%, SNEX +1.7%, JBHT +1.5%, EQH +1.4%, TII +1.1%, CAG +1%, ECX +0.9%, CFG +0.9%, LW +0.8%, BMM +0.8%, BK +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • QDEL -16.5%, GEVO -9%, SFST -6.3%, TSM -3.3%, YORW -2.8%, ORC -2.6%, SLG -2.3%, TX -2.1%, ESEA -2%, SVRA -2%, OC -1.2%, HOMB -1%, WWD -0.9%, KEY -0.9%

FT : EU to relax merger rules in bid to create ‘European champions’

EU to relax merger rules in bid to create ‘European champions’
Draft reforms stress benefits of scale and investment in competition regulator’s assessment of proposed deals

The EU is planning the biggest relaxation of its rules on corporate mergers in decades as Europe faces increasing pressure to build global champions capable of taking on US and Chinese rivals.

The European Commission will give greater weight to “innovation, investment and resilience of the internal market”, when deciding whether to sign off on deals, according to draft guidelines seen by the FT.

The proposed change would mark the most radical shake-up by Brussels since the 2000s, when competition regulators put the effect of mergers on consumers at the heart of their decisions.

The new merger guidelines, which are still subject to change, would broaden the terms on which Brussels weighs whether a merger is acceptable. The reforms have been highly anticipated by dealmakers and investors looking at potential future consolidation.

If adopted by the Commission, the new policy approach would reflect a broader change in the political mood across the continent, with calls to enable more “European champions” to take on corporate giants in the US and China.

“The guidelines are a break from the past,” an EU official said, calling them “an ambitious approach that reflects the realities of increasingly challenging global competition”. The official added that the guidelines reflect “the priorities of this Commission mandate — ambition and scale”.

To increase competitiveness, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has championed a “new approach” on competition that is “more supportive of companies scaling up in global markets”.

But it has faced resistance from some liberal member states and parts of the Commission, which fear that relaxing constraints on mergers would hurt innovation, damp investment and force consumers to pay more for goods and services.

The draft guidelines maintain the core objective of preserving effective competition. But they note that “the growth and scaling-up of firms . . . so as to reach the necessary size to compete globally, can be pro-competitive”, arguing this can have a “positive impact” on the EU.

Noting a changed geopolitical context, the document argues the economy has also “shifted towards more innovation-heavy sectors where both scale and innovation are critical to compete”.

It calls on the EU’s antitrust division to pay closer attention to the impact of mergers on “scale, innovation, investment and resilience as pro-competitive factors that can benefit from a degree of consolidation”.

While these factors were taken into consideration when investigating European mergers, companies have long complained that such arguments were always secondary to assessments of pricing power.

The draft guidelines argue that innovation and scale ultimately benefit consumers, for example by securing access to critical inputs and strengthening the resilience of supply chains.

The European Commission declined to comment.

FT : ‘$20bn in 20 minutes’: the man turning Donald Trump into a global deal mach

‘$20bn in 20 minutes’: the man turning Donald Trump into a global deal machine
Paolo Zampolli provides access to the US president and his officials — at a price

Paolo Zampolli has a catchy pitch: “$20bn in 20 minutes”. 

It’s a motto for the man who has said he introduced Melania and Donald Trump and jets between European and Middle Eastern capitals, sometimes alongside top US officials, sometimes next to catwalk models.

“My number-one boss is the president of America,” Zampolli told the FT. “I get my instructions from the White House, Commerce and the Department of War . . . anything to advance the America First agenda.”

Last week, in his official capacity as US special envoy, Zampolli was with vice-president JD Vance in Hungary, where he cut a deal to sell nuclear energy. A few months earlier, he was in Uzbekistan pushing Boeing planes.

“I’ve actually become Boeing’s number-two salesperson in the world, right after the president . . . unpaid, but it’s true,” he said, with a mix of pride and theatrical disbelief.

Boeing did not confirm this characterisation of his role. But the line is vintage Zampolli. It captures an archetype for an era of outrageous money-making.

Zampolli’s evolution from New York socialite and former modelling agent to globetrotting Trump envoy offers a window into how the US president exercises transactional power. Loyalists are deployed as intermediaries in a system where access, relationships and deals often blur into one.

Zampolli’s proximity to power has drawn scrutiny. The New York Times recently reported that he sought help from US immigration authorities in a dispute with his former partner, Amanda Ungaro, a Brazilian national who was ultimately deported. The report suggests Zampolli may have used his ties to the White House to target his former partner of nearly two decades, with whom he is in a custody dispute over their son.

He dismissed the episode as inaccurate and politically motivated, insisting he had not asked for any favours but merely sought clarity on the case.

But the recent noise has not hampered Zampolli’s ability to build a role and a business model around facilitating deals for Trump’s America.

In Zampolli’s telling, the Uzbekistan trip distilled his approach. Officials in the Central Asian country initially floated a $4bn Boeing order. He pushed back. “I said: ‘Are you crazy? I’m not calling my boss for a measly $6bn . . . I want $50bn.’”

Within hours, according to Zampolli, the two sides reached a deal at $20bn. “$20bn in 20 minutes,” he repeated, in a thick Italian accent. “I’ve worked on many more . . . small ones that I feel embarrassed to mention because they’re less than a billion.”

The reality is different. Trump announced in September that Uzbekistan Airways had agreed to buy 22 planes for more than $8bn, with an option to buy more. Later, Trump said Uzbekistan would invest “over $100 Billion Dollars” in American industry.

“The president alone closed the Boeing deal with Uzbekistan Airways for 22 Dreamliner aircraft during his September 5, 2025 call with President [Shavkat] Mirziyoyev,” a US state department official told the FT. “The president has assembled a robust team dedicated to implementing his vision to put America First and advance our national interests.”

Zampolli also touted a recent deal to open “Donald J Trump Park” in Romania’s capital of Bucharest to celebrate the 250th anniversary of America’s independence.

Like the US president whose style he emulates, Zampolli is not big on the particulars and quick to downplay the mechanics of his deals. “I bring people together, global partnerships. Then there are the details . . . that’s when the secretaries step in.”

But the logic of his diplomacy is simpler and more revealing.

“Whenever people see me, they want something. They want access to the president,” he said. “I tell them: ‘Buy Boeing.’ If you want to make the president happy, buy Boeing. It’s the simplest thing in the world.”

Boeing declined to comment. The White House referred a request for comment to the state department.

Zampolli does not make a secret of his role. Much of his work as an envoy is documented on his Instagram feed, a running highlight reel of meetings and handshakes and deals.

Long before he was cutting deals on behalf of Washington, Zampolli was a fixture of New York’s late 1990s nightlife and modelling scene — a swaggering impresario whose confidence often outpaced his English.

An October 2001 profile in Vanity Fair captured him in full, both mocking and marvelling at his improbable influence over the city’s social and fashion circuits.

“Zampolli’s presence on ‘Page Six’, the gossip column in The New York Post — where he is always identified as a ‘model mogul’ — is surpassed only by ‘hot-blooded hotel heiress’ Paris Hilton’s,” wrote Vanity Fair in a roughly 3,000-word profile titled Ze-e E-e-en credible Paolo!, an irreverent, if not entirely politically correct, portrait.

Around that time, Zampolli — scion of an Italian family with roots in steel and railways who claims to have distant ties to the Agnelli business dynasty and even a pope — struck the deal that would define his life. He has said that in 1998 he introduced a young Slovenian model, Melania Knauss, to Trump at a fashion week party.

Zampolli’s role in the first couple’s origin story spilled into public view in recent days, after Melania Trump held a surprise press conference in which she denied any ties to Jeffrey Epstein and said the late child sex offender played no role in her introduction to her husband.

Shortly after, Ungaro, Zampolli’s former partner, alluded on X that Melania Trump had a connection to Epstein before later deleting the posts.

Zampolli, characteristically, brushed it aside. “And what does Jeffrey Epstein say [about me]? ‘He’s trouble stay away.’ And sure enough, he hated me. It’s not like the Epstein files revealed, ‘If you want hookers, call Paolo,’ or ‘Paolo is on the island.’ No he never invited me to the island.”

In a Trump administration that prizes loyalty and results over process, Zampolli embodies a kind of parallel diplomacy: informal, personality-driven and all about the deals.

The effect is the collapse of distinctions that have long underpinned US foreign policy: between statecraft and salesmanship, public office and private network, diplomacy and dealmaking.

For Zampolli, there is no contradiction. The pitch remains the same, whether delivered in a Budapest ministry or a Central Asian capital: big numbers, quick timelines and a clear message about how to get what you want.

“Buy American,” he says.

If that doesn’t work: “$20bn in 20 minutes.”