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La Lettre — 17 avril 2026 — Résumé bilingue

🇫🇷 RÉSUMÉ FRANÇAIS

L'ÉVÉNEMENT — Projet Périclès : lancement d'Hémisphère Droit

Pierre-Édouard Stérin (Otium Capital) finance un nouveau think tank libéral-conservateur, Hémisphère Droit, administré par Arnaud Rérolle dans le cadre du projet Périclès. Animateur principal : Raphaël Selignan (HEC, ex-Oliver Wyman, ex-Augur Advisory), soutenu également par le Fonds du Bien commun.

Positionnement : s'adresser à tous les candidats de droite et centre-droit (Édouard Philippe, Jordan Bardella, Sarah Knafo) en s'inspirant des méthodes des cabinets de conseil pour peser dans le débat public.

Première initiative : une note "Fraude à la TVA" proposant l'adoption du paiement fractionné polonais (split payment depuis 2018), couplé à l'IA pour identifier biens/services taxables — rendement estimé 13 Md€/an pour l'État. Opération menée avec Matthieu Pélissié du Rausas (ex-senior partner McKinsey).

Écosystème concurrent : Bertrand Picard (Natural Grass) finance la revue Civilisation de Laetitia Strauch-Bonart ; Hervé Novelli anime le Cercle des entrepreneurs engagés ; Renaud Dutreil défend le capitalisme familial ; Éric Maumy (April) et Erwan Le Noan (Altermind) ont lancé le collectif Trop, c'est trop contre la fiscalité des entreprises.

DÉFENSE — Start-up françaises en Ukraine vs LPM 2024-2030

Les PME de défense présentes en Ukraine (Shark Robotics, Delair, Comand AI) dénoncent l'absence de robotique terrestre dans la LPM en cours de révision. Emmanuel Levacher (président du GICAT) a été auditionné le 15 avril par la commission défense AN ; la députée Constance Le Grip (EPR) a relayé leurs préoccupations.

Contexte géopolitique : Friedrich Merz a signé le 14 avril à Berlin un accord de coopération industrielle avec Zelensky, tandis que les négociations Paris-Kiev sur l'importation de technologies militaires ukrainiennes critiques restent au point mort depuis la lettre d'intention signée par Catherine Vautrin le 9 février.

ENTREPRISES — KNDS : IPO de l'été à 20 Md€

Le fabricant franco-allemand du Caesar prépare son introduction en bourse juin/juillet 2026 — l'une des plus importantes de l'année dans la défense.

Structure :

Termes : placement de ~25 % du capital, levée ~5 Md€, valorisation cible >20 Md€ → 12ᵉ capi défense européenne. Double cotation Paris/Francfort actée. L'État allemand vise au moins 25,1 % (minorité de blocage) — schéma rappelant Airbus. PDG Jean-Paul Alary.

DÉFENSE — FN Browning candidat favori petits calibres

FN Browning (Julien Compère) a déposé le 14 avril son offre à la DGA pour deux nouvelles lignes de production (munitions 5.56 mm et 7.62 mm) dans son usine Sofisport (Drôme). Programme lancé par Sébastien Lecornu en mai 2024 pour réduire la dépendance aux imports brésiliens et israéliens.

Concurrents : MEN (DE, filiale CBC/Brésil), Sellier & Bellot (CZ, Colt CZ), Fiocchi (IT, CSG).

Calendrier : BAFO fin juin, négociation formelle juillet, attribution septembre 2026. Dimension diplomatique : contrepartie française aux commandes belges à KNDS (programme CaMo).

MÉDIAS — Le Point en crise d'audience

L'hebdomadaire d'Étienne Gernelle est passé de la 34ᵉ à la 50ᵉ place du classement ACPM (21,17 M visites janvier → 13,7 M mars), derrière L'Express et Le Nouvel Obs. Causes : modifications algorithmiques Google Discover, réduction de l'activité éditoriale (20 articles/jour vs 50), perte de 6,8 % d'abonnés en 2025. 135 000 lecteurs en janvier 2026 (31 000 numériques). Stratégie de "premiumisation" sur modèle The Atlantic — départ de Mathilde Gardin (numérique) en mai pour L'Opinion.

AUDIOVISUEL — Altice rafle le MMA à la Maison Blanche

RMC Sport (Altice/Patrick Drahi) diffusera l'UFC Freedom 250 le 14 juin dans les jardins de la Maison Blanche — événement organisé pour les 250 ans des États-Unis et les 80 ans de Trump (qui a décalé d'un jour le G7 d'Évian). Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira (ceinture intérimaire lourds) en affiche. Production CMA Média (Rodolphe Saadé).

🇬🇧 ENGLISH SUMMARY

THE EVENT — Périclès Project: Hémisphère Droit launch

Pierre-Édouard Stérin (Otium Capital) is funding Hémisphère Droit, a new liberal-conservative think tank under the Périclès project, administered by Arnaud Rérolle. Lead: Raphaël Selignan (HEC, ex-Oliver Wyman, ex-Augur Advisory), also backed by the Fonds du Bien commun.

Positioning: targeting all center-right/right candidates (Édouard Philippe, Jordan Bardella, Sarah Knafo), applying consulting methodologies to public policy debate.

First initiative: a VAT fraud paper proposing France adopt Poland's split payment mechanism (live since 2018), coupled with AI to identify taxable goods/services — projected €13bn/year for the Treasury. Led with Matthieu Pélissié du Rausas (ex-McKinsey senior partner).

Competitive ecosystem: Bertrand Picard (Natural Grass) funds Laetitia Strauch-Bonart's Civilisation review; Hervé Novelli runs the Cercle des entrepreneurs engagés; Renaud Dutreil champions family capitalism; Éric Maumy (April) and Erwan Le Noan (Altermind) launched collective Trop, c'est trop against corporate taxation.

DEFENSE — French Ukraine-tested startups vs LPM 2024-2030

Defense SMEs active in Ukraine (Shark Robotics, Delair, Comand AI) criticize the absence of ground robotics in the ongoing Military Programming Law revision. Emmanuel Levacher (GICAT chairman) was heard April 15 by the National Assembly defense committee; MP Constance Le Grip (EPR) relayed industry concerns.

Geopolitical context: Chancellor Friedrich Merz signed an industrial cooperation agreement with Zelensky in Berlin on April 14, while Paris-Kyiv negotiations to import critical Ukrainian military tech remain stalled since Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin's February 9 letter of intent.

CORPORATES — KNDS: €20bn summer IPO

Franco-German Caesar howitzer maker prepares its June/July 2026 IPO — one of the year's largest in defense.

Structure:

Terms: ~25% float, ~€5bn raise, target valuation >€20bn → #12 European defense cap. Dual Paris/Frankfurt listing confirmed. German state targeting ≥25.1% (blocking minority) — Airbus-style governance. CEO: Jean-Paul Alary.

DEFENSE — FN Browning frontrunner on small-caliber tender

FN Browning (CEO Julien Compère) submitted its DGA bid on April 14 for two new production lines (5.56mm and 7.62mm ammunition) at its Sofisport plant (Drôme region). Program launched by Lecornu in May 2024 to reduce dependency on Brazilian/Israeli imports.

Competitors: MEN (DE, CBC/Brazil subsidiary), Sellier & Bellot (CZ, Colt CZ), Fiocchi (IT, CSG).

Timeline: BAFO end-June, formal negotiation July, award September 2026. Diplomatic dimension: French counterpart to Belgian orders at KNDS (CaMo program).

MEDIA — Le Point faces audience collapse

Étienne Gernelle's weekly dropped from 34th to 50th in the ACPM ranking (21.17M visits January → 13.7M March), now trailing L'Express and Le Nouvel Obs. Causes: Google Discover algorithm changes, editorial cutback (20 articles/day vs 50), −6.8% subscribers in 2025. 135,000 readers in January 2026 (31,000 digital). "Premiumization" strategy modeled on The Atlantic — digital editor Mathilde Gardin leaving in May for L'Opinion.

BROADCASTING — Altice wins White House MMA rights

RMC Sport (Altice/Patrick Drahi) will broadcast UFC Freedom 250 on June 14 at the White House gardens — event marking both the 250th US anniversary and Trump's 80th birthday (who shifted the Évian G7 summit by one day). Headline fight: Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira (interim heavyweight belt). Produced by CMA Média (Rodolphe Saadé).

French telecoms groups raise takeover offer for Patrick Drahi’s SFR

Deal would be a key test of antitrust regulators’ views on in-market consolidation

A consortium led by Bouygues Telecom has agreed to enter exclusive talks to buy the French telecoms unit of billionaire Patrick Drahi, in a long-awaited deal that will test regulators’ appetite for consolidation.

Bouygues, state-backed telecom group Orange and Iliad submitted a joint offer for SFR that would carve up SFR’s fixed, mobile and business service among themselves.

The bid values France’s second-biggest telecoms group, now owned by Drahi’s Altice Group, at €20.4bn, a higher price than the initial bid of €17bn that Drahi rejected in October.

If agreed, the deal will boost the buyers’ profitability by reducing intense competition in France and delivering large synergies.

Antitrust regulators have long been wary of such in-market consolidation because there is a risk that it would lead to higher prices for consumers, so they may block the deal or require concessions from the buyers.

But European competition watchdogs are now planning the biggest relaxation of rules on corporate mergers in decades, the FT reported this week, to help strengthen the EU economy by encouraging industrial champions capable of taking on US and Chinese rivals.

Telecoms groups in Europe have been lobbying for decades for a relaxation of merger rules, arguing they are being squeezed by big tech and video streaming companies that consume massive bandwidth yet do not have to contribute to building or maintaining communications networks.

The European telecoms market remains far more fragmented, with dozens of providers, than the US and China that only have about three players each.

For Drahi, the SFR sale is the latest in a string of divestments that have dismantled much of his once-sprawling telecoms and media conglomerate that was built in the past decade in a debt-fuelled acquisition spree. Drahi wants to wind down the group that once stretched from the US to Israel and reduce heavy debts that have led to repeated clashes with lenders.

The acquiring companies said they had until May 15 to negotiate a final offer with Drahi, warning that there was no certainty a deal would be finalised.

In a joint statement, the three buyers said the transaction “would help sustain and strengthen the entire digital economy and the telecommunications sector in France”.

They added: “The split of price and value between buyers would be around 42 per cent for Bouygues Telecom, 31 per cent for Iliad and 27 per cent for Orange.”

The proposed structure of the takeover would involve Bouygues, Iliad and Orange splitting SFR’s consumer mobile and broadband unit and its customers between them, while Bouygues would have the business that serves corporate clients. Other assets, such as mobile spectrum and network infrastructure, would also be divided up, save for in smaller towns and rural areas where they would go to Bouygues.

Labour unions at SFR have sounded the alarm on the risk of mass lay-offs if the deal goes ahead and the French government has also said it would be vigilant about the risk of price hikes for consumers and business.

Luigi Lovaglio’s survival at the world’s oldest bank is down to typical Italian wheeling and dealing

Italian capitalism has long been an opaque and convoluted affair: powerful insiders call the shots at listed companies, often to the detriment of ordinary shareholders. So the shock victory of a plucky underdog in a proxy fight might look like a sign that the bad old ways are finally being swept away by market forces. In truth, however, Italian wheeling and dealing is surprisingly hard to overcome.

The event itself is certainly noteworthy. Shareholders at Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world’s oldest bank, voted to reinstate ousted chief executive Luigi Lovaglio, in a blow to the board of directors that had ejected him and large shareholder Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, who wanted rid of him. 

The candidature of Lovaglio, a competent banker and the architect of Monte dei Paschi’s turnaround and breathtaking takeover of rival Mediobanca, had none of the trappings of normalcy: he had been excluded from the list of directors proposed by the bank itself, and had failed to secure the support of proxy advisers. Despite that, he was backed by high-profile international institutions including BlackRock and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. 

So far, this sounds a lot like a win for the market. But a closer look at the voting register doesn’t quite bear this out. Despite the illustrious names in his corner, in the end Lovaglio only secured the votes of a minority of institutional investors at the AGM. The majority went with the board’s Caltagirone-backed list.

What swung it in his favour was the support of another powerful insider: Delfin, the Luxottica family holding company, which turned on erstwhile pal Caltagirone in rather spectacular fashion. Why, exactly, has yet to be revealed. It is of course possible that Delfin has voted with its wallet, for the candidate that it thinks will create the most value. But this still smacks of an internal Italian power struggle, with one kingmaker being replaced by the next.

Still, intentions and outcomes are not always correlated. And Lovaglio’s return will probably be good news for Monte dei Paschi. He has shown himself willing to make bold moves, even considering the sale of the bank’s €7.5bn stake in insurer Generali, which alone accounts for over a quarter of Monte dei Paschi’s market capitalisation. And the fact that his candidacy was supported by rival midsized lender Banco BPM may suggest that he is open to a tie-up which, given the overlaps between the two networks, would create huge amounts of value.

An all-share merger would also help loosen the grip of Monte dei Paschi’s large investors on the bank — something that Lovaglio, given his recent experience, may well be keen to see. While not exactly a victory for ordinary shareholders, the drama in Siena has inched the bank in the right direction.