SIE GY diving...
SIE GY RMR MKT TALK PROFIT WARN
Bernstein Initiate Carrefour with Underperform reco today...
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Carrefour, H&M Best Retail Ideas for Barclays in 2014 2013-12-03 08:24:14.12 GMT
By Heather Burke Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays says in note Carrefour best food retail idea for 2014, H&M best general retail idea. * Says Carrefour may have upside potential in 2014, sees performances continuing to improve in France, will continue to regain market share * Says H&M’s U.S. online start in Aug., possible global roll- out in 2014 may help sales, profits in S-T, L-T; cost structure has become more efficient, any rev. growth will now have a more positive effect on earnings
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To contact the reporter on this story: Heather Burke in London at +44-20-7673-2044 or hburke2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net
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Daimler, Peugeot Top EU Auto Picks; Avoid BMW, Renault: Exane 2013-12-03 08:00:11.528 GMT
By Brian Lysaght Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Outperform picks are Daimler, Peugeot, Faurecia, Exane says in note re-initiating coverage on EU autos. * Key underperform picks are BMW, Fiat and Renault * EU autos are good value relative to cap goods, trading 15% below long-term PE of 11x: Exane * Sees Europe as pricing “bright spot” in 2014-15 as stabilizing demand coincides with capacity cuts; premium autos pricing won’t benefit, will be flat * Daimler has pricing/cost advantages, consensus on FCF, margin is too low; Peugeot benefits from improved EU pricing, Chinese div. * BMW “lost in stagnation” next year; Renault, Fiat face pricing challenges in emerging markets: Exane * See yday: EU Autos Reach 26-Yr High in Nov.; Peugeot, Conti Lead Gains {NSN MX6JP46S972I <go>} * NOTE: SXAP index up 36% ytd, best of 19 SXXP groups
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To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Lysaght in London at +44-20-7330-7908 or blysaght@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gaurav Panchal at +44-20-7392-0511 or gpanchal2@bloomberg.net
The Labor Department will release its latest unemployment data this Friday. But it won’t put a note in the news release saying that its jobless figures might have been fabricated. So I’ll write the note for the department, which is, understandably, shy about the whole matter. Warning: The unemployment numbers you see in this press release may have been fabricated. In fact, the jobless rate that seems so important to the Federal Reserve, economists, businesses and so many others might have been a joke for years. Use these numbers at your own risk. You might want to keep this note handy when the Labor Department announces the new jobless rate for November, which “experts” expect to fall to 7.2 percent from October’s 7.3 percent rate. The Fed seems to be aiming for a rate in the mid-6 percent range before it starts cutting back on its bond-buying disaster in the making known as quantitative easing. Basing any decision on the unemployment rate was ludicrous even before I broke the news a couple of weeks ago that someone had been caught fabricating the interviews with households. The rate has always been subject to statistical manipulation. If someone stops looking for work, for instance, he’s no longer unemployed in the eyes of the Labor Department. On the flip side, the jobless rate would go up if the economy improved as people suddenly would become more optimistic and start looking for a job after having given up. What I uncovered a few weeks ago is quite another thing: the outright falsification of the unemployment data, which is not only indefensible but also unimaginable. To refresh your mind, I learned that a guy named Julius Buckmon, who worked as a Census Bureau surveyor in Washington, had been caught in 2011 handing in fabricated interviews. And not just a couple. Buckmon was a workaholic, producing four times as many interviews each month as his peers. That was not hard, since Buckmon didn’t bother to actually interview most of the people. Buckmon, who has left Census, said that he was told to make up interviews by a supervisor. That supervisor’s actions were then covered up by another supervisor. The Census Bureau didn’t bother to tell the Labor Department about any of this. Labor learned about it from my column and the convulsion that followed. Both Census supervisors are still on the job, although a source tells me that Supervisor No. 1 — the one Buckmon directly blamed — has been barred from doing work for the Labor Department. There’s no telling how many survey-takers like Buckmon were taking orders from these supervisors, so there is no way of knowing how much of the data were corrupted. Buckmon told me that he never came into contact with any other survey-takers, so he didn’t know if others were also faking it. A whistle-blower who spoke to me and who is now presumably talking with congressional investigators says the deceit continued after Buckmon was gone. And, this source says, survey-takers and supervisors knew that higher-ups wanted the jobless rate to come down before the 2012 election. And that’s exactly what the rate did, showing an astounding drop just two months before President Obama was put back into office. I published my first column about Buckmon and the other accusations on Nov. 19. The Census Bureau would have been finishing up its November employment survey around that time — so these folks wouldn’t have been on their best behavior when producing the numbers coming out on Friday. As far as I’m concerned, anything coming from the BLS is legit, although I have questioned some of the group’s statistical tricks over the years. But anything coming directly from the Labor Department or Census — don’t trust it! Both are headed by political appointees. - If you haven’t seen it already, catch an online piece written on Nov. 12 by Judge Jed Rakoff, who presides over many of the Wall Street trials in Manhattan. The headline is “Why Have No High Level Executives Been Prosecuted in Connection With the Financial Crisis?” I’ve asked that question plenty, both in this column and, occasionally, while wandering aimlessly around the streets of New York. “In conclusion, I want to stress again that I have no idea whether the financial crisis that is still causing so many of us so much pain and despondency was the product, in whole or in part, of fraudulent misconduct,” wrote Rakoff. “But if it was — as various government authorities have asserted it was — then, the failure of the government to bring to justice those responsible for such colossal fraud bespeaks weaknesses in our prosecutorial system that need to be addressed,” added Rakoff. With my apologies to the judge, let me explain this better: The fraud that caused our nation’s worst financial crisis in generations was caused by Wall Street firms, which — along with the people who run them — contribute heavily to political campaigns. So if you ever had a doubt that rich people are treated better than others in the American legal system, you shouldn’t doubt any more. But thanks, Judge Rakoff.
It looks like Steve Cohen, the founder of the $14 billion SAC Capital Advisors, may have gotten some protection from his boys. Cohen’s top lieutenant, Michael Steinberg, on trial for insider trading in Manhattan federal court, and his research analyst Jon Horvath debated what to tell the mega-investor about the inside information they had on Dell, Horvath testified Monday. The analyst’s inside information on Dell indicated the company would miss analysts’ estimates when it reported earnings in August 2008. That differed from the positive view others at the hedge-fund giant had on Dell, which led SAC and Cohen to take a big long position in the stock. In an email to Horvath on Aug. 25, Steinberg, a portfolio manager, wrote that he hadn’t mentioned any of Horvath’s Dell information to Cohen and that “I’d like to properly weigh the risk-reward of doing so.” To explain the difference between his view and others inside SAC, the next day Horvath wrote an email to Steinberg’s group saying that he had a “2nd hand read” that Dell would miss analysts’ estimates. Steinberg, who the government claims knew the Dell info was illegal, responded: “Yes, normally we would never divulge data like this so please be discreet.” Steinberg, facing up to 20 years in prison, denies the charges. The email was later forwarded to Cohen, although that was not produced as evidence in court — nor was the fact that Cohen sold his entire Dell position. By Aug. 28, Steinberg had shorted Dell — a $10 million, position that earned $1 million profit, the prosecution said earlier. “Nice job on Dell,” Cohen wrote Steinberg. Later that year, Cohen and Steinberg argued again about Dell in an instant-message exchange that was shown to jurors. When Cohen questioned Steinberg’s then-bullish view on Dell, the portfolio manager responded, “I have an analyst that covers the stocks. He has industry contacts.” Cohen replied, “I would prefer to talk on phone.” Steinberg then sent an instant message to Horvath, discussing the exchange with Cohen. “I told him not to be short and he got pissed, drilling me; who is telling me business is ok. I said Jon has a number of industry contacts and that is what he has heard through supply datapoints and he was not pleased. Total bulls–t,” Steinberg wrote Horvath. Later, Horvath testified that Steinberg told him, “Don’t worry. I told him you had supply datapoints,” which are legitimate sources of information. Horvath said he thought that meant Steinberg wasn’t letting Cohen know he was getting the information from Jesse Tortora, a research analyst at now-defunct hedge fund Diamondback Capital. Tortora, an admitted insider trader in the corrupt circle who testified last week, was Horvath’s Dell source. Horvath has pleaded guilty to insider trading charges and is the government’s star witness against Steinberg. Cohen has not been charged with any crimes. While SAC has loomed large at the much-watched trial, Monday was the first time the billionaire investor’s name was mentioned.
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Vodafone Unlikely to Remain Independent, Bernstein Says 2013-12-02 09:17:57.288 GMT
By Sam Chambers Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- After Vodafone’s Verizon Wireless sale and capex hike, it’s hard to make a credible investment case for co. as a standalone and a bid from AT&T and/or SoftBank will probably materialize, Bernstein says. * Says AT&T may find it difficult and time consuming to secure regulatory/political approvals for a deal, due to VOD’s multiple territories and the NSA spying scandal * NOTE: In 2011, AT&T pulled its $39b bid for T-Mobile USA after encountering regulatory opposition * If no bid materializes in the S/T, VOD could sell individual assets; Vodacom to Orange, India to Telenor, Australia to Hutchison, Egypt to Etisalat all possible, Bernstein says * Says this simplification of its portfolio would then make VOD more attractive for AT&T and less attractive for SoftBank, who are chasing scale * NOTE: AT&T said to be laying groundwork internally for a potential takeover of Vodafone * NOTE: AT&T may offer a healthy premium for VOD: Bernstein
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--Editor: James Ludden
To contact the reporter on this story: Sam Chambers in London at +44-20-7673-2021 or schambers7@bloomberg.net
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*BMW REINITIATED AT UNDERPERFORM AT EXANE; PT EU84 *VOLKSWAGEN PREF REINITIATED AT NEUTRAL AT EXANE; PT EU216 *PORSCHE INITIATED AT UNDERPERFORM AT EXANE; PT EU75 *PEUGEOT REINITIATED AT OUTPERFORM AT EXANE; PT EU17 *RENAULT REINITIATED AT UNDERPERFORM AT EXANE; PT EU63 *FIAT REINITIATED AT UNDERPERFORM AT EXANE; PT EU4 *DAIMLER REINITIATED AT OUTPERFORM AT EXANE; PT EU74
US Market Closed lower, Small Cap were weak afte Chinese move...Tech was also weak with all big names down...Biotech was an outperformer...Volumes were weak @ 667miul shares...VIX +3.87% @ 14.23...China Nov non-manufacturing PMI slows for the first time in 3 months..PBoC regular liquidity injection more modest than in recent sessions, even a local think tank notes the 2014 China GDP forecast may be downgraded to 7%...Shanghai +0.85%...-Yen remaining under pressure amid further speculation the core CPI will not achieve 2% target in 2 years, calling for more BOJ easing down the line; Nikkei +0.85% tracking softer yen...
Eur$ 1.3550 S&P Fut +0.01% European fut -0.30%
Keep an eye on : - RUSSIA : Russian May Remove Nickel, Copper Export Duty in 2014: Vedomosti - BALSN VX L Basilea’s Isavuconazole Wins FDA’s QIDP Status Against Fungus - CMB BB : Saverys Family Member Buys 10,000 Shrs of Cie. Maritime Belge - CNP FP : CNP’s Lavenir Proposed Talks on Partnership With BPCE: Les Echos - FER SM : Ferrovial Wants to Compete on Spain High-Speed Rail, Cinco Says - KER FP : Redoute Managers Join Bidding for Co.: Le Nouvel Observateur - LMI LN : Lonmin Plans to Raise Community Stake of Marikana Mine: Bus Day - MOR GY : Morphosys Strengthens EU Patent on Anti-CD19 Cancer Program - NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk CEO Sees No Major Negative Price Erosion in U.S. - RIO LN : Rio Tinto to Halve Capital Spending by 2015 in Focus on Cash - SAN FP : Sanofi Announces Phase 3 Results on U300 Experimental Insulin - TLW LN : Press Spec. About this year move overdone, big HF short, could OP, more bid speculation - TKA GY : ThyssenKrupp Decides to Increase Capital Stock by 10 Percent, Price guidance 17.05/17.15 : 3% diascount vs syest closed, stock lost 8.46^ during the session
Up
*AHOLD RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT EU17.5 *AXA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS *BAE SYSTEMS RAISED TO SECTOR PERFORM VS UNDERPERFORM AT RBC *CASINO RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT EU100 *CREDIT AGRICOLE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA *DAILY MAIL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT:MORGAN STANLEY *GENERALI REINSTATED AT OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS; PT EU19.6 *GETINGE RATED NEW BUY AT SOCGEN, PT SEK267 *GJENSIDIGE RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS *INTESA RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA *MAPFRE RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS *METRO RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT EU42 *MOL RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS *MOL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC *MORRISONS RATED NEW MARKET PERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT 270P *NOBEL BIOCARE RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY *PIRAEUS BANK RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA *PLAYTECH RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT 820P *PUBLIC POWER CORP RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC *SAINSBURY’S RATED NEW MARKET PERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT 430P *SASOL RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI *SEB RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT HSBC *SMITH & NEPHEW RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY *STRAUMANN RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT: MORGAN STANLEY *TESCO RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT 300P *TOD’S SPA RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE, PT EU140 *UNIPOL RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS *WILLIAM HILL RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
Down
*ALPHA BANK CUT TO REDUCE VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA *AMLIN CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS *AVANGARD CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN *BNP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA *CARREFOUR RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT EU23 *CNP ASSURANCES CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS *CONTINENTAL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN *DNB CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA *HOCHSCHILD MINING CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS *HSBC CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA *JULIUS BAER CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA *OCEANA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE *RUSHYDRO CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *SONOVA CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
PT Change
*DAILY MAIL PT RAISED TO 1,085P VS 800P AT MORGAN STANLEY *Popolare Milano PT Raised to EU0.5 vs EU0.46 at Nomura *UBI PT RAISED TO EU5.8 VS EU4 AT NOMURA; KEPT AT BUY *UNICREDIT PT RAISED TO EU4.5 VS EU4 AT NOMURA; KEPT AT REDUCE
Initiation
*AHOLD RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT EU17.5 *CARREFOUR RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT EU23 *CASINO RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT EU100 *GENERALI REINSTATED AT OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS; PT EU19.6 *GETINGE RATED NEW BUY AT SOCGEN, PT SEK267 *METRO RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT EU42 *MORRISONS RATED NEW MARKET PERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT 270P *PLAYTECH RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT 820P *PUBLIC POWER CORP RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC *SAINSBURY’S RATED NEW MARKET PERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT 430P *TESCO RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT 300P *TOD’S SPA RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE, PT EU140
Country Sector Stock Call
Country :
*FRANCE STOCKS CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS BENCHMARK AT CREDIT SUISSE *UK EQUITIES CUT TO BENCHMARK VS OVERWEIGHT AT CREDIT SUISSE *CZECH STOCKS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT BOFAML
Sector :
*European Telcos Near Five-Year High as Revenue Declines Continue {NSN MX6TSA6TTDSA <go>}
STock
*EDENRED REMOVED FROM UBS’S LEAST PREFERRED LIST *LADBROKES ADDED TO UBS’S LEAST PREFERRED LIST *RUSHYDRO ADDED TO GOLDMAN’S CEEMEA FOCUS LIST *SODEXO REMOVED FROM UBS’S MOST PREFERRED LIST *WILLIAM HILL ADDED TO UBS’S MOST PREFERRED LIST
Apparently, there is a major hedge fund out there still sitting on a hefty short position in Tullow Oil.
Shares of the Africa-focused exploration and production group have performed abysmally this year and are currently trading 37 per cent below their December 2012 peak of 1371p.
Sellers have ruled the roost for months but several City analysts are now taking the view the fall has been overdone, while industry gossip yet again suggests that timid Tullow is attracting the attention of a couple of cash-rich international bidders who could bid up to £14 a share at the drop of a hard hat. The hedge fund therefore must be getting a little bit twitchy and ready to buy the stock back, so wait for the rally.
Tullow yesterday eased 4p to 865.5p in sympathy with the general dull trend but buyers are ready to pounce should the stock weaken any further. Its extensive drilling campaign in Africa has been successful, especially in Kenya where the Etuko-1 well suggests resources in excess of 300m barrels of oil.
BarCap has a target price of 1525p and says although the group’s overall exploration performance has been less prolific than in the past, the prospectivity of its portfolio remains extremely attractive, particularly its dominant position in onshore East Africa which, given the results so far, has the potential to emerge as a major oil and gas province.
Rival broker Killik is a fan and says Tullow’s ownership of highly prospective assets leaves the group vulnerable to bid speculation.
This time last year speculation was rife that state-controlled PTT Exploration, Thailand’s biggest gas and oil group by market capitalisation, which bought Cove Energy for £1.9bn, and ‘friends’ were considering launching a break-up cash bid for Tullow.