>>> Holiday 2013 Cyber Monday Early Look

{http://ebaystrategies.blogs.com/}

Amazon and eBay are trending over 30% compared to last year. Google Shopping continues its gains as well.  Search and CSE slowed down through the day with Search currently trending ~6% and CSE 14%.   Overall it looks like Cyber Monday is (still) on track to be up over 30% compared to last year from a SSS basis, which would make it a new record day for e-commerce!

>>> Potash Corp. Announces operational changes; To cut workforce in Canada, the

Potash Corp. Announces operational changes; To cut workforce in Canada, the United States and Trinidad by 18% - We are reducing our permanent potash workforce by approximately 570 people. The majority of these positions will be at our Lanigan and Cory facilities in Saskatchewan as well as our New Brunswick operation. Our Patience Lake, SK facility and Saskatoon Corporate Headquarters will also be affected. - We will be closing the Suwannee River chemical plant in the second half of 2014 - one of two at our White Springs, FL phosphate facility. This move will impact approximately 350 people.

Operating changes include: - Suspending production at one of our two Lanigan mills by year end, while keeping it in a care-and-maintenance mode; - Reducing production at our Cory facility by year end; and - Ceasing production at our Penobsquis, NB facility at the end of the first quarter 2014, which will allow us to accelerate development activities at our Picadilly mine. - We anticipate our operational capability for 2014, along with our inventory position, will provide us the ability to supply more than 10 million tonnes, which should provide ample supply cushion. - A loss of capacity at White Springs is expected to be partially offset by higher operating rates at our Aurora, NC phosphate facility. We anticipate a net loss of approximately 215,000 tonnes of P2O5 annual production within our phosphate business beginning in 2015, although product mix optimization will result in improved per-tonne gross margin contribution. The impact on customers is expected to be minimal due to our product mix flexibility, as well as the ability to direct volumes to offshore or domestic markets.

- The majority of changes are anticipated to be completed in 2013 - We expect potash cost savings of $15-$20 per tonne in 2014 with a targeted reduction of $20-$30 per tonne by 2016 (from 2013 levels). In phosphate, we anticipate an annualized gross margin improvement of approximately $10-$15 per P2O5 tonne. - One-time costs associated with these changes are expected to approximate $70 million for severance charges. We are currently reviewing the carrying value of our affected assets and a write-down, if required, will be incorporated into our fourth quarter 2013 results.

(HSBC) Generalist's Guide to Macro Strategies

--> Key Results * Emerging markets are more subject to macro influence and show positive ‘macro style’; ie, they benefit more from expanding and rising of risk appetite, while developed markets exhibit the opposite * By country, Germany and France have a positive bias in Europe, deviating from the UK and Switzerland on the negative end. Much less deviation is seen in GEM and Asia Pacific ex-Japan (all in positive) and in North America, the US dominates * Sector wise, Materials, Industrials, IT and Consumer Discretionary favoured on rising yields, inflation, leading indicators and risk appetite. Consumer Staples, Health Care, Telecom and Utilities avoided * From a style perspective, value investors assume highest macro risk while Growth maintains positive macro exposure in AxJP and Emerging Markets. Quality and Momentum show some countercyclicality and outperform as the economy deteriorates

Report Attached * This report is an extensive guide to macro sensitivities/strategies for 8 regions, 20 countries, GICS L1/L3 sectors and 23 investment styles

* Our analysis contains 40 macro factors incl. FX, interest rates, implied inflation, commodities, leading indicators, economic surprises and risk measures

* We summarise key investment ideas for 24 important macro scenarios (12 factors) on a regional, country, sector as well as a single-stock basis

- Region, country, sector and style sensitivity Our analysis demonstrates that sensitivities to different macro factors differ significantly across regions, countries, sectors and investment styles. Europe and Japan profit from rising interest rates while emerging markets gain from rising commodity prices, implied inflation and economic leading indicators. North America is less dependent on the macro environment than other markets. In terms of sectors, Materials, Industries, IT and Consumer Discretionary exhibit the highest cyclicality; Consumer Staples, Health Care, Telecom and Utilities the lowest. From a style perspective, Value benefits most from a positive macro scenario followed by Growth while Quality and Momentum are less sensitive to macro factors.

- GICS L3 sector sensitivities We look at the top L3 sector ideas under specific macro scenarios (10 included) and highlight the top 5 sectors to profit from a macro trend. Conversely, for a given L3 sector, we identify the most influential macro factors that might impact the relative sector return. Additionally, an overview of all sector-macro factor sensitivity is provided in the sector scorecards. How to play 24 macro scenarios Separately, we offer comprehensive investment advice on

- how to play 24 standard macro scenarios (12 factors) on a regional, country, sector and even a single-stock basis.

WSJ : U.S. High-School Students Slip in Global Rankings

{http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_student_performance} full ranking

U.S. 15-year-olds made no progress on recent international achievement exams and fell further in the rankings, reviving a debate about America's ability to compete in a global economy.

The results from the 2012 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), which are being released on Tuesday, show that teenagers in the U.S. slipped from 25th to 31st in math since 2009; from 20th to 24th in science; and from 11th to 21st in reading, according to the National Center for Education Statistics, which gathers and analyzes the data in the U.S. The PISA is administered every three years by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. A representative sample of about 510,000 students took the exam in 65 countries and locales, representing 80% of the world economy. U.S. scores have been basically flat since the exams were first given in the early 2000s. They hover at the average for countries in the OECD except in math, where American students are behind the curve. Meanwhile, some areas—Poland and Ireland, for example—improved and moved ahead of the U.S., while the Chinese city of Shanghai, Singapore and Japan posted significantly higher scores. The stagnant U.S. results are certain to spark more hand-wringing by politicians, business leaders and policy makers concerned that American students are not keeping pace with counterparts in other countries. They are also likely to fuel the debate over which policy fixes could be instituted to boost results. Many U.S. schools already have undergone decades of policy overhauls, including grading teachers on student test scores, expanding school-choice options and instituting more rigorous math and reading standards. U.S. Education Secretary Arne Duncan called the results a "picture of educational stagnation" and said it was at "odds with our aspiration to have the best-educated, most competitive work force in the world." But Dennis Van Roekel, president of the National Education Association, the nation's largest teachers union, said the data show the U.S. has been going down the "wrong path," and said high-scoring countries don't use student test scores to pay and fire teachers or to rate and punish schools. "There is a road map out there," he said. "But we are not following it." In the U.S., about 6,000 randomly selected students from 161 public and private schools participated. For the first time this year, Florida, Connecticut and Massachusetts tested enough students to get state-level data. The two Northeastern states equaled or bettered the OECD averages on all exams, while Florida fell below in math and science. Other areas that aren't countries, such as Shanghai, tested enough students to have individual rankings. Unlike many other standardized exams that assess students' knowledge, PISA measures whether students can apply that knowledge to real-life problems. The exams are scored on a 0-to-1,000 point scale. U.S. teenagers scored 497 in science and 498 in reading, tying the OECD averages. They scored 481 in math, below the OECD average of 494. The U.S. positions in the international rankings include numerous statistical ties. Experts caution against reading too much into the rankings without a deeper understanding of the differences in socioeconomic and racial composition among countries. The U.S., for example, has more children living in poverty than do many other industrialized countries, and 15% of the variance in test scores can be explained by socioeconomic status, according to the OECD analysis. The analysis found a strong correlation between higher test scores and students' school attendance and punctuality. But it found a low connection between class size and test scores. Martin Carnoy, a professor at Stanford University's Graduate School of Education who has studied PISA results, said policy makers often draw "oversimplified conclusions" from international tests. "These results don't tell anything about the quality of teaching or the quality of the curriculum in countries," he said. For the last few years, many U.S. educators and policy makers have looked to Finland, noting its high test scores and laser-like focus on attracting and retaining the best teachers. Although Finland still posts high scores, they have slid in the past few years. Poland, on the other hand, has seen sharp improvement. The only European country to have avoided the recession, Poland undertook a host of education overhauls in 1999, including delaying by one year the system that places students into academic or vocational tracks, and crafting better systems to identify struggling students and get them help. "Poland launched a massive set of reforms and, while we cannot say for sure they caused the improvement, they certainly are…a sort of plausible explanation," said Andreas Schleicher, deputy director for education and skills at the OECD. In Massachusetts, educators and policy makers credit the good showing, in part, to a 1993 effort that boosted spending and ushered in rigorous standards and achievement tests that students have to pass to graduate. Andrew Vega, an eighth-grade teacher at Orchard Gardens K-8 Pilot School in Boston, said that when he moved from California, he "was completely blown away by what we ask students to do." He said the state exams are so rigorous "the teaching quality also has to be higher-quality." He said he focuses on teaching students how to think critically. "My job is: No matter where you go, you're going to do well."

(BFW) Publicis CEO Sees No Big Improvement in 4Q French Ads: Reuters

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Publicis CEO Sees No Big Improvement in 4Q French Ads: Reuters 2013-12-03 09:45:29.526 GMT

By Blanche Gatt Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Publicis CEO Maurice Levy says he doesn’t expect French ad market to improve materially in 4Q, says the market seems “weak, a little depressed,” Reuters reports on website. * Levy was speaking at a conference today, Reuters says * Ad markets south of Belgium are “going badly,” with double-digit percentage declines in ad spending in Italy, Spain, Levy said, according to Reuters

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story: Blanche Gatt in London at +44-20-7392-0351 or bgatt@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net

(Barrons') Bitcoin, Gold and Tulips

{http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903302604579233990748865878.html?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_1}

While gold languishes, bitcoin is shooting higher. Can the digital currency keep its momentum, or will gold recover on a bitcoin collapse?

In January, bitcoin was trading around $13. By November, it was at $200, and it had soared past $1,200 by Thanksgiving before backing down. Is bitcoin the wave of the future, or nothing more than digital tulips? One look at the chart says the present is fraught with extreme risk that cuts both ways. While we cannot know if the next stop for bitcoin is $2,000 or $200, one thing for sure is it is a chart that none of us have ever seen live and in person (see Chart 1).

Without getting into the details, bitcoin is a new currency traded against the dollar, yen, euro and every other currency around the world. It is not minted by any government and by extension it cannot be diluted by central bank money printing or other government policies. Bitcoin fans say that (apparent) invulnerability could help it replace gold as a store of value. If you recall the initial public offering of Netscape two decades ago, or even of Google(ticker: GOOG) one decade ago, early trading in a true innovation can be quite frenzied. Prices increase at geometric rates. In today's marketplace, bitcoin seems to have taken that dynamic to the limit with a near-vertical ascent and a host of analysts crying "bubble." On the charts, we do see meteoric ascents from time to time, and usually they do not end well. A good example is Sodastream (SODA) in 2011. The young stock rallied from roughly 25 to 80 in just a few months' time and just as quickly was trading back down near 30. I call it "parabolic up, parabolic down," others call it an "Eiffel Tower" pattern. Briefly last week, the price of bitcoin exceeded the price of an ounce of gold. While it makes for great headlines, the comparison is not any more valid than comparing gold to the level of the Standard & Poor's 500, or apples to wildebeest. None of it makes sense. You cannot hold an ounce of bitcoin on your hand. But the hoopla over the event did underscore the sentiment now surrounding this market. I am not commenting on the viability, liability, or buyability of a new system of money, but only the technicals surrounding it. Even though the public is largely unaware of this market, those investors involved with it show an extreme level of bullishness. Extreme bullishness creates an environment where any bad news can be devastating to prices. Gold, as mentioned, has been suffering, and whether bitcoin has played a role is up for debate. The trend has been down for nearly two years and it is hard to make a case from a simple price action perspective that this market is close to turning around for the better (see Chart 2). But in a strange twist, the new love for bitcoin and its spawned additional dislike for gold may be just what will change the metal's fortunes for the better.

Without inflation, war, a sinking dollar, or intense demand for the commodity – traditional conditions under which precious metals flourish – gold has shed all but its most devoted fans. Sentiment is as dour as ever, so the idea that bitcoin is putting in the final nail in the coffin could create a contrarian's dream setup in the near future. But sentiment is merely an environment. Only price action can set a buy trigger, and for now, the few remaining gold bugs will have to wait.

Perhaps bitcoin, not gold, is indeed the future of money. But given that the bitcoin parabola is similar to that of the Dutch tulip bulb mania in 1637, (See Chart 3) the dangers of buying into a bubble are the same as attempting to sell it short. It could double from here just as easily as it could fall by half. Timing must be perfect with these levels of volatility and risk. Investors might consider waiting for a significant shakeout in bitcoin before taking the plunge. Or they can follow gold lower as they wait for a spark that triggers a massive short squeeze as bears rush to cover their bets. On the charts, both markets seem to be at critical levels, where major reversals or major accelerations – up for bitcoin and down for gold – may be in the offing.