BOE's Haldane: Asset management industry may pose a systemic risk
Link to Google Translation :{http://bit.ly/1dXfj6J}
Link to French/Original Article {http://bit.ly/1kwW9Dg}
Once the operator SFR sold, the debt discharged and dividends, it remains to Vivendi 6 billion euros to develop the strategy that Bolloré dream: that of Messier.
Date of baptism is fixed: June 24, Vincent Bolloré, shareholder of Vivendi, and Arnaud de Puyfontaine, the new general manager of media activities will focus on a baptismal font Vivendi ... rebuild.
Because the holding , Resulting from Meccano Jean-Marie Messier corrected by Jean-René Fourtou, which must leave the chair of the Supervisory Board the same June 24, cuts a leg. SFR, Bouygues and coveted by Numericable is 46.1% of the 22.1 billion turnover of Vivendi in 2013, and 56% of 4.9 billion operating profit (EBITDA).
Spray reserves
It remains to Vivendi TV (Canal + and a part of the activity of the Brazilian GVT), music (Universal Music), a few start-up (Wengo, Digitick, Watchever) and deep pockets to pick a strategic coherence in the opinion of analysts, has failed so far. "Vivendi undergoes a small holding company discount estimated between 5 and 10% of its total value, says Philippe Leroy, head of firm expertise and independent financial advice Détroyat Associates. Market remains neutral, it is a position of wait due to the uncertainty on the use of funds from the output of SFR. "
Bolloré and Puyfontaine want to spray these reserves. In his office at the headquarters of Vivendi, avenue de Friedland Paris, Arnaud de Puyfontaine has cards. The total sale of SFR should relate to the final 17 billion euros. After payment of the debt ($ 6.9 billion) and payment of dividends unclaimed by shareholders (4 billion euros), he will have 6 billion euros to invest. "Vivendi could increase this amount by borrowing or selling its Brazilian subsidiary GVT, "said Jerome Bodin, an analyst at Natixis. What go do some shopping.
Because it is good to go on the hunt for acquisitions, to expand the activities of the new pure Vivendi media. The French and European giant to become a global leader in "content." This is the first challenge, geographic: it is necessary to plant flags on the map. Certainly, Canal + has expanded its activities in Africa, Poland and Vietnam. But it is insufficient in light of the new ambitions.
Span the Atlantic
Jérôme Bodin, the development of future group necessarily involves an acquisition in the heart of the machine world dreams in the United States. A kind of remake of adventure Universal. "Vivendi could tackle the problem size Canal +," said the analyst, who cites several targets on the market for pay television or film in the United States: AMC, Scripps Networks, A & E Television, Lions Gate, Weinstein Company, Relativity in film. What spanning Europe, where StudioCanal weighs about million of annual turnover 500, and the United States, beating heart of the world production. Vivendi could also watch targets in Africa, Germany and Brazil, the land of GVT. Musically, Universal Music can already claim the overall size, but in a much narrower than that of the image area.
The new Vivendi will bring exactly the image and music to cultivate the synergies. Because the logic of geographical coverage adds a strategic dimension to rethink the distribution of works in the Internet age. A Vivendi, is rumored keyword "multi". Suffice to say that precious "content" Vivendi should be available all the time, on all platforms (web, satellite TV connected ...).
In this dream consultant, the public will fight to subscribe to pay-TV group, it will rush Services Pay-TV subsidiary GVT to see Borgia, programs and films produced by Canal +, or listen to signed Universal Music Group music tubes. Especially, Web multiply bridges, affect the general public and will boost activity. Objective: Install Vivendi among global giants Disney, ABC, Fox and others. The dream of Messier (re) become reality.
Remarry Havas ?
Arnaud de Puyfontaine, former head of the media group Hearst U.S. Europe knows that the valuations of Internet assets may rise very high. Vivendi will thus something to offer Spotify, valued $ 4 billion, but not a giant like Netflix, valued $ 22 billion and is poised to carve cruppers to Canal + in France.
Become rich again, Vivendi may knock on the door of the English channel to pay BSkyB, the U.S. satellite TV operator EchoStar or Universal: many jewels of Vivendi Messier as Havas, sold by his successors. One of the popular scenarios bankers and analysts is precisely remarriage with Havas, including Vincent Bolloré is the reference shareholder. The history of Vivendi seems to stutter.
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Bouygues Down, Numericable Up; BFM Says Vivendi Picks Altice Bid 2014-04-04 07:37:37.949 GMT
By Blanche Gatt April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Bouygues drops as much as 3.1% on 2nd consecutive day of losses; BFM website says Vivendi likely to select Numericable parent Altice’s bid for SFR, despite Bouygues’ improved offer, cites unidentified sources. * Vivendi down as much as 0.8% today, Numericable up 1.4% * Liberum says if reports are right and Vivendi has selected Altice/Numericable bid, this is “probably the right move” * Numericable-SFR bid would face fewer regulatory issues * Combination of Numericable’s cable business with SFR’s telco business makes sense * Deal with Numericable may also benefit Vivendi in pay-TV area, with Canal Plus * NOTE: Vivendi’s board meets today to discuss bids after 3 weeks of exclusive talks with Altice * NOTE April 2: Bouygues Keeps Earlier SFR Offer Open to Vivendi * NOTE April 1: Bouygues Extends SFR Bid as Drahi Exclusive Talks Set to End
For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story: Blanche Gatt in London at +44-20-7392-0351 or bgatt@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net
* REMY - from Betaville Blog - UPDATE (small pouring of cold water) - UPDATE:
Last night some news aggregation services presented this story in a much "harder" manner than I originally published. I would just like to make it clear to Betaville readers, that as far as I am aware - and to be clear, this is unconfirmed speculation - Brown-Forman has just been looking Remy Cointreau via certain advisers and that is about it. There are no formal discussions taking place between the companies and the likelihood of a deal at the moment is very slim.
----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 3 2014 19:34:35
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 3 2014 19:34:35
{http://betaville123.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/in-discreet-mayfair-hotel-cigar-bars.html?m=1}
JD...and Cognac
In discreet Mayfair hotel bars men in dark glasses are talking about Remy Cointreau. But it's not because they like drinking expensive Cognac.
There is a theory rattling around the hedge fund districts of London, Paris and Geneva that Remy Cointreau is takeover target for US drinks giant Brown-Forman, owner of Tennessee whiskey Jack Daniel's.
The idea is that Brown-Forman is desperate to get hold of Remy Cointreau because it doesn't want to get left behind in the global consolidation game that re-ignited at the beginning of the year when Japan's Suntory snapped up US bourbon specialist Beam for $16 billion.
Since the Beam deal Remy Cointreau shares have been under pressure on fears the slowdown in China will continue to hit the French company's Cognac sales.
In early January, the maker of the luxury brand Louis XIII cognac issued a profit warning, saying sales fell sharply during the last three months of 2013 as Chinese demand for its products continued to shrink. The worse-than-expected financial performance has triggered several analysts downgrades.
Now, then, may be an 'opportune' time for Brown-Forman to strike at Remy Cointreau - which can trace its roots back to the Remy Martin business founded in 1724 - as the French company's stock is in the doldrums.
I checked the theory out with excellent sources. In some ways, the tale is credible. I understand that over the last couple of months Brown-Forman has been working with a few investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, on how it might be able to purchase Remy Cointreau.
Tentative discussions have been held between investment banking advisers to both companies, with Lazard said to be representing Remy Cointreau and its controlling shareholders.
However, that is about as advanced as the potential "deal" has got to at the moment, said sources close to the matter. And I expect it will be difficult to move the transaction further forward.
This is because France's Heriard Dubreuil family speak for about 60pc of the listed company, populate the board and manage the business. Francois Heriard Dubreuil, the chairman, took control as chief executive after Frederic Plfanz resigned earlier in the year.
Not a lot is known about the Heriard Dubreuil family as its members are highly secretive although not necessarily averse to M&A. Indeed, the family backed the merger of its Remy Martin business with Cointreau, which was owned by the Cointreau family, in the early 1990s.
However, given the Heriard Dubreuil members have been involved with Remy Cointreau for several decades, I understand it will take a huge offer from Brown-Forman - in the region of 85 Euros a share - just to even get the family to the negotiating table, especially as there is a social stigma in France about selling French companies to "les Americains".
Bonne chance, Brown-Forman.
Remy Cointreau and Brown-Forman both declined to comment.
Ben Harrington at 17:12
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Former ECB Official Bini Smaghi: Markets now prepared for QE to occur
- Euro zone inflation is not in line with price stability (Note: the ECB's mandate is price stability and the inflation target is 2%)
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Remy May See ‘More Pain’ Ahead: Exane; Shares Up on Bid Report 2014-04-04 07:16:12.592 GMT
By Heather Burke April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Remy Cointreau may not have a recovery in China until 2015 at earliest, Exane said in note yday, cuts to underperform, sees “more pain” in future. * Up 5.5% after rising as much as 11% at the open as Betaville blog reported post-mkt yday Brown-Forman using advisers to consider Remy bid * Exane says shrs down ~40% in past 18 months mostly due to earnings changes, too early to call bottom * 5th time in 18 mos. recovery expectations pushed back * Last yr cognac margins 30%, sees margins declining to 25% in FY15 * Shrs don’t give floor at current prices * Next catalyst: 4Q sales April 17 * NOTE: 9-mo. cognac organic sales down 18.3%, co. said Jan. 21 * NOTE March 21: Remy 4Q May Still Be Hurt by China, Recovery May Lag Peers: UBS
For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story: Heather Burke in London at +44-20-7673-2044 or hburke2@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net Nadine Skoczylas
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BN 04/04 06:58 *MEDA CHAIRMAN CONFIRMS `PRELIMINARY CONTACT' WITH MYLAN: DIREKT
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*MEDA CHAIRMAN CONFIRMS ‘PRELIMINARY CONTACT’ WITH MYLAN: DIREKT 2014-04-04 06:58:20.998 GMT
--CORMAC MULLEN
-0- Apr/04/2014 06:58 GMT
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BFW 04/04 06:34 *MEDA TRADING HALTED BY NASDAQ OMX STOCKHOLM BN 04/04 06:33 *MEDA TRADING HALTED BY NASDAQ OMX STOCKHOLM
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NASDAQ OMX Stockholm AB Equity Market information Handelsstopp i/Trading halt in Meda AB (31/14) 2014-04-04 06:31:54.346 GMT
NASDAQ OMX Stockholm AB Equity Market information Handelsstopp i/Trading halt in Meda AB (31/14)
Börsen har fattat beslut om att stoppa handeln för aktierna i Meda AB (MEDA A, ISIN-kod SE0000221723, orderboks ID 917) från klockan 09:00 tills vidare med hänvisning till 22 kap. 1§ p 1 lag (2007:528) om värdepappersmarknaden.
Finansinspektionen har underrättats om handelsstoppet och har i enlighet med 22 kap. 2§ lagen (2007:528) om värdepappersmarknaden beslutat att det ska bestå tills vidare.
The Exchange has decided to halt the trading in the shares of Meda AB (MEDA A, ISIN code SE0000221723, order book ID 917) with effect from 09:00 CET until further notice in accordance with Chapter 22, section 1, p 1 of the Securities Markets Act (2007:528).
The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority has been notified and in accordance with Chapter 22, section 2 of the Securities Markets Act (2007:528) decided that this trading halt shall remain until further notice.
For further information concerning this exchange notice please contact Karin Ydén or Patrik Hellgren, telephone +46 8 405 60 00, or iss@nasdaqomx.com
-0- Apr/04/2014 06:31 GMT
* Two “super-CEOs” on a final global mission and Europe is also looking better
Carlos Ghosn and Sergio Marchionne are entering their last stretch as global CEOs with
new ambitious targets and c.3 years left to potentially complete the transformation of
their groups into scaled up global OEMs. With Europe starting to recover faster than we
expected from historic lows, both CEOs could well retire on a high. Both stocks offer
meaningful upside from operations and a history of valuation “inefficiencies” which
could be fixed at Renault and will be fixed at Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA).
* Operations: Renault reassuring and inexpensive and low expectations for FCA
Renault’s strong balance sheet, high cost visibility (French restructuring, Alliance
synergies) are only modestly priced in, and even top line looks promising as Renault
brand stops shrinking in Europe. Despite a solid share price run ytd, we think
expectations are still low that FCA can revive Alfa Romeo or bring Brazil margins
anywhere close to historic levels.
* Corporate: High Nissan leverage for Renault and portfolio upside at FCA
There is no clear valuation anomaly left at Renault (stub now positive and Nissan derated
to European multiples) but fairly high leverage to Nissan shares and lowly valued
core maintain high upside for shares. Expectations of change in the Alliance have
disappeared. By contrast, expectations of portfolio change are higher at FCA, and
rightly so given management’s track-record. Fixing the balance sheet may require help
but the potential upside from further group break-up is high with an independent
Ferrari estimated to be worth more than €4 per share and Components (Magneti-
Marelli) potentially worth €2.5 per share.
* Valuation: Upgrade Renault (€85 PT) and Fiat (€10 PT) to Buy
Recent volume data points in Europe are more supportive than expected. Both OEMs
are set to secure their position at the top of Tier 2 global OEMs in our view. Size itself is
not an asset as we saw in the past with Toyota or GM. Most preferred global OEM
remains Ford (Buy, $18 PT) where scale achieved through platform and brand
consolidation exceeds size and least is VW (Sell, €180 PT) where scale is not necessarily
matching size given product range complexity and M&A capital spent on
diversification.
* Bottom-line: pre-payroll investors reduced cash and bought stocks and bonds ($15.3bn inflows combined)...risk is that much stronger-than-expected payroll would induce spike in volatility, profit-taking and (temporary) pause in risk rally.
* First inflows to both EM debt and equity funds in 6 months (Chart 1)...EM bear market rally continues (note Bovespa has outperformed SPX YTD).
* Q1's best performer, Gold, sees outflows, as investors once again bet on US recovery and dollar
>>> Asset Class Flows
* Equities: $8.4bn inflows (split evenly between ETF’s and long-only funds)
* Bonds: $6.9bn inflows (largest in 8 weeks)
* Precious metals: first outflows in 7 weeks ($0.2bn)
>>> Equity Flows
* EM: first inflows in 23 weeks! ($2.5bn); inflows concentrated in Global EM funds
* Europe: $1.4bn inflows (40 straight weeks of inflows)
* US: modest $3.4bn inflows (Table 2); Japan: small inflows as well
>>> Fixed Income Flows
* First inflows to EM debt funds in 27 weeks! ($1.0bn) (majority via EXD) (Chart 2)
* 15 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($2.8bn)
* 8 straight weeks of inflows to HY bond funds ($2.3bn)
* 3 straight weeks of govt/tsy fund inflows ($1.1bn)
* 93 straight weeks of inflows to floating-rate debt