Special Situations/EVENT DRIVEN: Club Med
trade action flash – the deal is dead, long live Club Med
CU FP: Eur 18.20 – target > Eur 21
April 3, 2014
As we made it clear a year ago, the Fosun/Axa offer at Eur 17.50 greatly undervalued the company and its brand name. We thought fair value was in the low 20s and this is still our view. With the shares now trading consistently well over the offer price, and with a number of activist/aggressive shareholders each with significant stakes in the company, we think that the 17.50 offer has zero chance of succeeding regardless of the court’s decision on April 29. The consortium will need to either bump the price (we think no bump will be substantial enough to reflect fair value), lower the minimum tender threshold – in a new offer - or/and see its attempt to control the company failing. The reason why we are adamant on this and the value of Club Med is that at the time of the offer, and at the then offer price, Club Med was already greatly undervalued. Since the offer has been made, almost a year ago, the share prices of global hotel groups have significantly risen (next table). As a result, valuations in the hotel sector have exploded along.
The court is to rule whether to uphold the AMF approval of the offer. Hedge fund CIAM and shareholder association ADAM are questioning the calculation method of the CU offer price and the independence of the expert. Under the most likely scenario, the Court will uphold the AMF decision, but it could request a second independent expert opinion or annul the AMF decision, which would result in a cancellation of the offer.
Although Club Med has sub-average profitability in the sector in terms of operating margins or ebitda margins, a 40% rise in the share price would only need a 40bps increase in ebitda margins to 9.5% for the stock to be fair value. This shows the operating leverage available to a buyer of Club Med at the current price, ie. the slightest increase in margins increase tremendously the valuation of the company. Clearly AXA/Fosun had been attempting to steal the company away at Eur 17/share and made it a joke when the offer was “bumped” to 17.50. We would think that given what has happened to hotel valuations in the last year, a bump well over Eur 20 would be necessary to convince investors to tender above the 50% threshold (in fact they only need 16% tender to pass that mark). For this to happen, the current offer has to fail and expire which will almost certainly happen. What we think is more likely to happen next is a new offer with a modest bump in the Eur 18-20 area while possibly lowering the 50% threshold, with AXA/Fosun being happy to buy as many shares as being tendered. We expect the shares to remain listed and to eventually re-price north of Eur 25 once a turnaround becomes more obvious.
FULL REPORT ATTACHED
Still suspended
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
BN 04/04 13:02 *MEDA CONFIRMS MYLAN INDICATIVE APPROACH, SAYS REJECTED PROPOSAL BFW 04/04 13:01 *MEDA SAYS DISCUSSIONS TERMINATED WITHOUT FURTHER ACTIONS BN 04/04 13:01 *MEDA: TALKS BETWEEN MEDA, MYLAN HAVE BEEN TERMINATED BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA CONTACTED BY MYLAN REGARDING INDICATIVE MERGER PROPOSAL BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA SAYS DISCUSSIONS TERMINATED WITHOUT FURTHER ACTIONS BFW 04/04 13:00 *MEDA: DECIDED TO REJECT MYLAN PROPOSAL BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA HEREBY CONFIRMS THAT IT HAS BEEN CONTACTED BY MYLAN BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA: MYLAN CONTACTED RE INDICATIVE PROPOSAL TO COMBINE BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA: DECIDED TO REJECT MYLAN PROPOSAL BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA SAYS TALKS ENDED WITHOUT FURTHER ACTIONS BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA: DECIDED TO REJECT PROPOSAL BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA CONFIRMS THAT IT WAS CONTACTED BY MYLAN BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA: CONFIRMS THAT IT CONTACTED BY MYLAN BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA CONFIRMS THAT IT CONTACTED BY MYLAN BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA: STATEMENT BY BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF MEDA BN 04/04 13:00 *MEDA: STATEMENT BY BOARD OF MEDA
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
MEDA: Statement by the Board of Directors of Meda 2014-04-04 13:00:21.875 GMT
This statement is made by the Board of Directors (the ”Board”) of Meda AB (publ) (”Meda”) pursuant to the Securities Markets Act and/or the Financial Instruments Trading act.
The Board hereby confirms that it has been contacted by Mylan, Inc. (“Mylan”) regarding an indicative proposal to combine the two businesses. The Board has convened and has decided to reject the proposal. All continued discussions between Meda and Mylan have been terminated without further actions.
The Board of Directors Meda AB (publ)
For further inquiries, please contact:
Paula Treutiger, Investor Relations ph: +46 733-666 599
paula.treutiger@meda.se
Meda AB discloses the information provided herein pursuant to the Securities Markets Act and/or the Financial Instruments Trading Act. The information was submitted for publication on April 4, 2014, at 15:00 CET.
MEDA AB (publ) is a leading international specialty pharma company. Meda’s products are sold in more than 120 countries worldwide and the company is represented by its own organizations in over 55 countries. The Meda share is listed under Large Cap on the Nasdaq OMX Nordic Stock Exchange in Stockholm. Find out more, visit www.meda.se.
This information was brought to you by Cision http://news.cision.com The following files are available for download: http://mb.cision.com/Main/357/9564239/229511.pdf Statement by the Board of Directors of Meda
Provider ID: 64LS17S7
-0- Apr/04/2014 13:00 GMT
M&A related: K -0.6% (pulling back following yesterday's upside move; Bloomberg discusses that strength in Kellogg yesterday was due to takeover speculation), .
Select European drug names showing weakness: NVS -0.9%, AZN -0.8%.
Other news: OPTT -15.8% (announces proposed public offering of common stock), HALO -13.7% ( Announces Temporary Halt Of Phase 2 Trial Enrollment And Dosing For PEGPH20), USU -12.1% (Bloomberg discusses chances of next nuclear accident ), IDN -7.5% (prices 2,617,000 shares of common stock at $0.80), CYCC -5.7% ( priced of an underwritten public offering of ~2.857 mln shares of its common stock to institutional and other investors at a price to the public of $3.50/share), GNK -5.2% (disclosed that it and certain of its subsidiaries entered into a restructuring support agreement ), WMC -5.1% ( announces public offering of 13 mln shares of common stock), NQ -2.5% (moved higher yesterday after confirming earnings report date - to report Q4 April 10 after the close), V -1.4% (still checking; may be attributed to WMT / MA news), EGLE -1.8% (GNK sympathy), EJ -0.9% (S.A.C. Capital lowers stake to 2.2% from 5.6% ), IHG -0.7% (still checking), SEAS -0.5% (prices $15 mln shares of common stock by Blackstone Group (BX) at $30.00 per share), C -0.2% (Citigroup CEO names Gene McQuade to run stress test process - CNBC), .
Analyst comments: VOD -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura), SONC -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Buckingham Research), DLR -0.4% (initiated with an Underperform at Cowen)
M&A news: MRCY +16% (Boeing considering purchasing the company, according to reports ), MYL +8.7% ( may acquire Sweedan's Meda AB, according to reports ), AAPL +0.3% (to acquire speech recognition company Novauris, according to reports).
Select solar related names showing strength: SOL +2.9%, JKS +0.9%, JASO +0.8%, FSLR +0.5% (positive mention on Money; target raised to $87 from $63 at Citigroup), SUNE +0.4%.
Metals/mining stocks trading higher: EGO +2.1%, KGC +1.7%, ABX +1.4%, MT +1.1%, SLV +1%, RIO +1%, GDX +0.7%, GLD +0.6%.
Other news: ESMC +30.7% (receives FDA 510(k) Clearance for the Sonomed Escalon VuPad), HXM +19% (discloses it is in discussions with an affiliate of Zell Credit Opportunities Fund to obtain secured financing to fund construction of over 8,000 new homes), USAT +8.9% (new three year exclusive agreement with The Pepi Companies), VTUS +8.9% (receives date for Type B Pre-NDA Meeting With FDA for DOLIZEM), AMRS +5% (still checking), DYAX +4.9% (receives FDA approval to expand use of KALBITOR (ecallantide) for the treatment of acute attacks of hereditary angioedema to patients 12 years of age and older), ALGN +4.9% (ITC affirms initial determination, finds infringement of 5 Align Technology patents and issues Cease-and-Desist Orders against ClearCorrect US and ClearCorrect Pakistan ), GLOG +4.4% (may be attributed to positive blog mention), BGS +2.9% (announces immediately accretive acquisition of Specialty Brands of America for ~$155 mln in cash), EXAS +2.2% (still checking), NBR +1.4% (up with APC), ECYT +1.1% (announces presentations; Data for Folate Receptor (FR)-Targeting Folate-Tubulysin Conjugate), APC+1% (Tronox issues statement regarding Tronox vs. Anadarko settlement; Tronox to receive $5.15 billion dollar tax benefit; total tax shield now estimated to be $10.15 billion; upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at JP Morgan;), TROX +0.7% (Tronox issues statement regarding Tronox vs. Anadarko (APC) settlement; Tronox to receive $5.15 billion dollar tax benefit; total tax shield now estimated to be $10.15 billion), GM +0.7% ( expects pre-tax remeasurement charge of ~$400 mln in Q1), TSLA +0.7% (still checking), ICPT +0.2% (S.A.C. Capital lowers take to less than .1% from 7.1%; prices 1 mln shares of common stock at $320.00 by co and selling stock holders ).
Analyst comments: NMBL +3.7% (initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray), PBPB +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair), URRE +2.4% (initiated with a Buy at ROTH Capital;), GME +1.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt raised to $56 from $43 ), HUN +1.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; ), UPL +1.8% (upgraded to Neutral from Cautious at ISI Group ), BTU +1.6% (Peabody upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen), NOW +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Evercore ), PSO +1.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), DFT +1.2% ( initiated with an Outperform at Cowen), FINL +1.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley ), ARUN +0.9% (initiated with a Outperform at Northland ), JPM +0.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie), EMES +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird), BLK +0.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette)
M&A news: MRCY +16% (Boeing considering purchasing the company, according to reports ), MYL +8.7% ( may acquire Sweedan's Meda AB, according to reports ), AAPL +0.3% (to acquire speech recognition company Novauris, according to reports).
Select solar related names showing strength: SOL +2.9%, JKS +0.9%, JASO +0.8%, FSLR +0.5% (positive mention on Money; target raised to $87 from $63 at Citigroup), SUNE +0.4%.
Metals/mining stocks trading higher: EGO +2.1%, KGC +1.7%, ABX +1.4%, MT +1.1%, SLV +1%, RIO +1%, GDX +0.7%, GLD +0.6%.
Other news: ESMC +30.7% (receives FDA 510(k) Clearance for the Sonomed Escalon VuPad), HXM +19% (discloses it is in discussions with an affiliate of Zell Credit Opportunities Fund to obtain secured financing to fund construction of over 8,000 new homes), USAT +8.9% (new three year exclusive agreement with The Pepi Companies), VTUS +8.9% (receives date for Type B Pre-NDA Meeting With FDA for DOLIZEM), AMRS +5% (still checking), DYAX +4.9% (receives FDA approval to expand use of KALBITOR (ecallantide) for the treatment of acute attacks of hereditary angioedema to patients 12 years of age and older), ALGN +4.9% (ITC affirms initial determination, finds infringement of 5 Align Technology patents and issues Cease-and-Desist Orders against ClearCorrect US and ClearCorrect Pakistan ), GLOG +4.4% (may be attributed to positive blog mention), BGS +2.9% (announces immediately accretive acquisition of Specialty Brands of America for ~$155 mln in cash), EXAS +2.2% (still checking), NBR +1.4% (up with APC), ECYT +1.1% (announces presentations; Data for Folate Receptor (FR)-Targeting Folate-Tubulysin Conjugate), APC+1% (Tronox issues statement regarding Tronox vs. Anadarko settlement; Tronox to receive $5.15 billion dollar tax benefit; total tax shield now estimated to be $10.15 billion; upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at JP Morgan;), TROX +0.7% (Tronox issues statement regarding Tronox vs. Anadarko (APC) settlement; Tronox to receive $5.15 billion dollar tax benefit; total tax shield now estimated to be $10.15 billion), GM +0.7% ( expects pre-tax remeasurement charge of ~$400 mln in Q1), TSLA +0.7% (still checking), ICPT +0.2% (S.A.C. Capital lowers take to less than .1% from 7.1%; prices 1 mln shares of common stock at $320.00 by co and selling stock holders ).
Analyst comments: NMBL +3.7% (initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray), PBPB +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair), URRE +2.4% (initiated with a Buy at ROTH Capital;), GME +1.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt raised to $56 from $43 ), HUN +1.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; ), UPL +1.8% (upgraded to Neutral from Cautious at ISI Group ), BTU +1.6% (Peabody upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen), NOW +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Evercore ), PSO +1.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), DFT +1.2% ( initiated with an Outperform at Cowen), FINL +1.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley ), ARUN +0.9% (initiated with a Outperform at Northland ), JPM +0.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie), EMES +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird), BLK +0.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette)
Gapping down: OPTT -15.8%, USU -12.1%, IDN -7.5%, CYCC -5.7%, GNK -5.2%, WMC -5.1%, NQ -2.5%, KEP -1.3%, GPN -1%, EJ -0.9%,BUD -0.9%, NVS -0.9%, AZN -0.8%, IHG -0.7%,
On the last few days we saw some decent interest on the name (17.78 on the 31/03 vs 18.18 today, traded up to 18.35 yest).
As you can see on the attached document some funds declared some activity and mentionned that they will continue to increase their stake. The fund is : Strategic Holdings / BI-Invest Compartement Fund SICAV SIF.
We can imagine to have some news or communication on this story pretty soon.