(BFW) Advent, BC Partners Prepare Bid for Lafarge, Holcim Assets: FT

Advent, BC Partners Prepare Bid for Lafarge, Holcim Assets: FT
2014-07-17 14:00:45.899 GMT


By Christopher Kingdon
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Advent, BC Partners have joined
forces to prepare bid for cement factories set to be disposed by
Lafarge and Holcim, FT reports, without saying where it got
information.
* Advent, BC Partners will be competing against other groups
incl. team formed by Blackstone, Cinven, Canada Pension Plan
Investment Board and other bidders
* NOTE: July 1, FT Reports Blackstone, Partners Mull Bid for
Lafarge, Holcim Assets NSN N81A3U6TTDSH<GO>


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>>> Time Warner: TAG believes a higher bid for TWX is likley, re-merging of CBS/

Time Warner: TAG believes a higher bid for TWX is likley, re-merging of CBS/VIAB is the next expected deal (83.13)

TAG notes that with TWX closing just 2% off the FOXA bid, the Market is likely expecting a higher bid. They agree, but with few other bidders, they believe FOX may be negotiating against itself. With FOXA pre-bid trading at a higher multiple than TWX, they believe that a FOXA bid of $95 would still be accretive on an EV/EBITDA basis. The next deal they expect is a re-merging of CBS and VIAB. With the Supreme Court having confirmed the broadcast retransmission fees (with the Aereo decision), there's no reason why VIAB and CBS shouldn't re-merge in order to enhance their negotiating position with distributors.

(BFW) SAP CEO Bill McDermott Says Large Deals Increasing

BN 07/17 12:51 *SAP CFO SAYS 97%-98% OF MAINTENCE CUSTOMERS RENEW YEARLY
BN 07/17 12:51 *SAP CEO MCDERMOTT SAYS LARGE DEALS INCREASING
SAP CEO Bill McDermott Says Large Deals Increasing
2014-07-17 12:57:57.201 GMT


By Blanche Gatt
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- SAP CFO Luka Mucic says 97%-98% of
maintenance customers renew yearly.
* NOTE today: SAP 2Q Operating Profit In Line, Software
Revenue Beats {NSN N8UBBV6S972L<Go>}
* Today: SAP STREET WRAP: 2Q Results a Relief; Shares Rise
Most in 9 Mths {NSN N8UHG06KLVR4<Go>}

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(KeplerCheuvreux) First thoughts on potential Fiat/VW deal

First thoughts on potential Fiat/VW deal (PDF ATTACHED)

* Little credibility to Manager Magazin’s report in our view
* There are clear and major obstacles to such a combo
* Long-term potential may be attractive, but others tried before
* Such deal would require another cap increase at VW


Low credibility to Manager Magazin’s report in our view
Manager Magazin reports that “the VW Group is exploring the possibilities of a takeover or partial takeover of the Italian-American competitor Fiat-Chrysler” with ongoing discussions between Mr. Piech and the Agnelli family. In our view, this report has a little credibility. Mr. Piech could potentially be looking to bypassing Mr. Marchionne by talking directly to the owners to try and get his way on Alfa. We would expect VW to deny the story. We confirm our Reduce on Fiat (TP EUR6) and Buy on VW (TP EUR226).

There are clear and major obstacles to such combo
Clear obstacles for a VW–Fiat combo include market share overlap in LatAm & Europe (> 40% in Brazil, > 30% in Europe, > 40% in Italy) that would make such deal challenging from an anti-trust standpoint, and the complexity both industrially and marketing-wise. While the combined entity would be a top-five player in the US, we feel VW would be better off on its own, given Chrysler’s industrial base (located in the unionised North) and its sustained underspending. So while it would resolve VW’s market share problem, we fear the efficiency of operations would decline.

Long-term potential may be attractive, but others tried before
Long-term potential from pooling architectures would be massive, but far off, complex and expensive to implement. While VW may be interested in the Alfa brand, and possibly Jeep, we struggle to see the attraction of Chrysler and Dodge, specifically if the Agnelli family would keep the Performance and Luxury brands, as reported by Manager Magazin.

Such deal would require another cap hike at VW
With Fiat’s EV at close to EUR29bn, given its elevated net debt and pension deficit, VW would, in our view, definitely require a capital increase of significant scope, with the combined group potentially ending up with a net industrial debt position vs. VW’s current net industrial cash. Overall, we think the move would not make much sense for VW, as the brand portfolio could be too complex here. The combined entity would have revenues in excess of EUR300bn in 2015 (!) and an operating profit of about EUR19bn, based on our current estimates for both companies.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TZOO -9.9%, SNDK -8.1%, MAT -7.8%, OWW -6.8%, CFX -5.8%, UFPI -5.1%, GARS -3.7%, DHR -3.3%, LVS -2.8%, YUM -2.7%, AN -2.4%, KMP -2.2%, KMP -2.2%, FITB -1.9%, GWW -1.6%, NVS -1.4%, BKMU -0.7%, KMI -0.6%, KEY -0.6%, KMI -0.6%, .

M&A news: AZN -0.6% (Telegraph details comments from analysts that there is a 25% chance that Pfizer (PFE) & AZN will return to buyout talks).

Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -2.5%, NBG -2.5%, BCS -2%, BBVA -1.8%, SAN -1.6%, DB -1.6%, CS -1.4%, HSBC -1.1%.

Select EU Telecoms trading lower: PT -2%, BT -1.7%, ORAN -1.6%, .

Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: BP -2.3%, TOT -1.5%, E -1.5%, RIG -0.8%.

Select peers trading lower in sympathy with co's that reported earnings: WYNN -2.4% (following LVS results), WYNN -2.4% (following LVS results), ASML -1.9% (following SNDK results), MU -1.6% (following SNDK results), STX -1.2% (following SNDK results), MGM -1.2% (following LVS results), MPEL -0.7% (following LVS results), CZR 0% (following LVS results)

Other news: URZ -12.7% (announces $10 mln financing), RSX -3.8% (U.S. Treasury confirmed increased sanctions against Russia), BNFT -3.5% (prices 2.5 mln shares of its common stock at a price of $38.50 per share), CLNY -2.8% (announces public offering of 15 mln shares of common stock), YNDX -2.7% (following Russia sanctions news), NES -2.6% (entered into settlement agreements in Texas court case involving subsidiary Heckmann Water Resources; to fund $5.5 mln of the total settlement amount to fully resolve the matter), TWTR -1.5% (reports of monthly active user decline), YY -0.8% (following weakness in Chinese equities overnight), THS -0.7% (prices 4,304,636 shares of common stock at $75.50 per share).

Analyst comments: PETM -0.9% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts), DEO -0.4% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan).

*U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL 3,000 LAST WEEK TO 302,000

*U.S. CLAIMS FOUR-WEEK AVERAGE DROPS TO LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2007
*THREE OTHER U.S. REGIONS SAW JUNE INCREASE IN HOUSING STARTS
*RECORD 29.6% DROP IN SOUTH HELD BACK U.S. HOUSING STARTS
*HOUSING STARTS IN U.S. FELL 9.3% IN JUNE TO 893,000 RATE
*U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL 3,000 LAST WEEK TO 302,000
*U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL 3,000 LAST WEEK TO 302,000
*HOUSING STARTS IN U.S. FELL 9.3% IN JUNE TO 893,000 RATE

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SCSS +12.2%, HAWK +5%, NTCT +4.3%, PLXS +3.3%, SNA +3.3%, POOL +3.1%, URI +3%, BX +3%, CY +2.4%, SAP +2.3%, SHW +2.2%, MS +1.8%, BHI +1.5%, WNS +1.5%, NAVI +1.4%, PM +1.2%, EBAY +0.8%, PVTB +0.8%, UNH +0.6%, NEO +0.5%.

M&A news: DRC +14.2% (Siemens (SIEGY) considering bid for Dresser-Rand, according to overseas article in Manager Magazin).

Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: HK +3.6%, NFX +3%, HMY +1%, AU +0.6%, AUY +0.6%.

Other news: NEWL +23.1% (cont strength following yesterday's gains), RNWK +9.7% (initial move higher started after the close; looking around for catalyst), SLCA +2.2% (to acquire regional frac sand producer Cadre Services for $98 mln), HLF +1.8% (following Pershing Square's Ackman appearance at Alpha conference after the close ), MS +1.7% (Morgan Stanley may consider sale of Madrilena Red de Gas Finance BV for EUR 900 mln, according to reports out in late trade yesterday), MSFT +1.2% (confirms steps to simplify organizations and align devices strategy; steps will result in the elimination of up to 18K positions over the next year).

Analyst comments: AEZS +8.5% (initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright ), HIVE +3.2% (initiated with a Buy at Buckingham Research), MTOR +1.6% (initiated with a Overweight at Piper Jaffray ), TWX +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim), ENOC +0.9% (upgraded to Strong Buy at Needham), KED +0.7% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel),CAMP +0.7% (initiated with an Outperform at William Blair), TMO +0.7% (initiated with a Buy at Citigroup)