>>> Buy Iliad (ILD FP) - Stroy look better now...have a look

* After Numericable / SFR Deal, Discussions with Bouygues Telecom are ongoing on a potential deal...
* Iliad could pay up to €5bil for Bouygues Telecom (According to SG Analyst), the press were mentionning that Bouygues was looking for €8bil...such amount will be paid in cash & shares but Xavier Niel will have to concede to go below the 50% of iliad...but this is the asking price and I don't think that Xavier Niel will pay that knowing the fact that it will cost himless money to developp its own networks.
* this deal will not be an issue in term of Regulatory as Free & Bouygues Telecom will have between 25% & 30% market share (vs 42.55 for Orange and ~30% for SFR)

* Iliad looks like is the only buyer even if telefonica mentionned in the press but no more details in that, timing is not in favour of Bouygues Telecom...

* AGM on the 20th of May

* Stock traded up to the €220 level and is now back on levels where it was trading just after the move on SFR /Bouygues / Numericable saga...190 appears to be a strong support now...(50d MA also)...Gap has been filled yesterday...{ILD FP Equity GPC <GO>}

* I see between 5% & 7% downside on this one and Upside is at least 15% in case of a deal

* A good hedge for this trade could be Orange {ILD FP Equity ORA FP Equity GRT D }

BUY ILIAD!!!!

>>> Why the IRS wants to be your Facebook friend

If the fear of an audit wasn't enough to scare you into being honest on your taxes, try this on for size: the IRS might be checking out your Facebook page. The good ol' Internal Revenue Service is reportedly using robots to scope out public social media accounts to catch potential tax dodgers. That means that the government can question if the "business trip" you took to Hawaii was legit based on snorkeling photos from your Instagram account or where you got all those benjamins in that YouTube video.

Tax evasion is a big deal in the US, and accounts for an estimated $300 billion in lost government funds each year. Like it or not, the IRS is technically free to use any public posts on social media during the auditing process or even to profile potential liars. That means you don't want to brag on Twitter about how much money your business is making if you're actually about to go under. Likewise, if you are fudging your taxes (which we don't recommend), you should consider revisiting your account privacy settings, and make sure you're keeping any incriminating evidence to yourself.

(ZH) The "Shocking" Buying Spree Of America's Mysterious Third Largest Treasury

Full article {http://bit.ly/1gA4cwa}

When we reported last month that in a shocking twist, "Belgium" holdings of Treasurys had soared by a massive amount in the past three months, making the tiny country the third largest holder of US paper, our Belgian readers took offsense alleging it is impossible that Belgium itself could be buying all this paper, explaining it was all Euroclear. Well, yes: we know and noted that, which is why those same readers probably should have actually read the part in the post which said: "our question is: just who is Belgium being used as a front for?
Recall that for years, the "UK" line item on TIC data was simply offshore accounts transaction on behalf of China. Of course, since China hasn't added any net US paper holdings in the past year, the UK, and China, are both irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. "
So yes, to clarify for our trigger-happy Belgian (non) readers: it is quite clear that Belgium itself is not the buyer. What is not clear is who the mysterious buyer using Belgium as a front is. Because that same "buyer", who to further explain is not China, just bought another whopping $31 billion in Treasurys in February, bringing the "Belgian" total to a record $341.2 billion, cementing "it", or rather whoever the mysterious name behind the Euroclear buying rampage is, as the third largest holder of US Treasurys, well above the hedge fund buying community, also known as Caribbean Banking Centers, which held $300 billion in March.
In summary: someone, unclear who, operating through Belgium and most likely the Euroclear service (possible but unconfirmed), has added a record $141 billion in Treasurys since December, or the month in which Bernanke announced the start of the Taper, bringing the host's total to an unprecedented $341 billion!
Also of note: Chinese holdings of US Paper dropped by $2.7 billion to $1273 billion, offset by Japan's $9 billlion increase in holdings to $1210 billion, as the convergence between the two countries resumes.
One thing that is certain: the mystery buyer is not Russia, which in February, or just as the Ukraine conflict was starting, sold another $6 billion, bringing the Russian total to $126 billion, the lowest since 2011, and the biggest annual drop, -24%, in holdings in history.

(Exane) Veolia / Suez Env. Opening the Merger Case

* Stars aligned for a merger
Two years ago, SEV and Veolia ended brief merger discussions. Much has changed very recently,
while competitive pressure is mounting, particularly from Asian players. Antitrust was a key barrier;
we identify issues for c.12% of combined EBITDA, concentrated in France. New exit routes are
now open – an IPO of SEV’s stable water business looks feasible and valuations are attractive.
Alternatively, France’s new PM’s pro-industrial comments suggest possible political support. We
could see public vehicle CDC swapping its stakes in Veolia and SEV against Veolia France Water.

* Value creation from enhanced bidding, streamlined costs and optimized purchasing
We see up to 60% valuation upside from synergies in a bull scenario, while leverage should be
reduced sharply (2.3x adj. ND/adj. EBITDA by 2016e vs. 2.9x), providing scope for further
consolidation and/or improved shareholder remuneration.

* A timely opportunity for key shareholders
The transformational deal could appease key shareholders at Veolia after recent unrest, while
merging management could solve governance issues. GSZ is under increasing pressure from the
French watchdog to detach from SEV. If GSZ were to swap part of its 35% SEV stake for Veolia’s
Dalkia International, it could be a perfect exit ticket and reinforce its leading energy services
division (Cofely). SEV – Veolia may be GBL’s next project after accompanying Lafarge – Holcim.

* Merger case improves risk – reward: upgrade of both stocks by one notch
We lift our standalone EPS by 8% by 2016e on improved mid-term French waste prospects. Wage
moderation should help industrial production and profitability in France, while new cuts to social
contributions were announced last week. Standalone, we would value SEV at EUR15.5/s and still
see downside at Veolia (EUR13/s), notably linked to earnings risk. We believe it is now opportune
for management to revisit the merger case. Applying 50% of our base case synergy estimates
(25% to each company), we value SEV at EUR17.5/s (vs. EUR14 previously) and upgrade to
Outperform. We upgrade Veolia to Neutral, EUR15/s target price (vs. EUR12).