* After Numericable / SFR Deal, Discussions with Bouygues Telecom are ongoing on a potential deal...
* Iliad could pay up to €5bil for Bouygues Telecom (According to SG Analyst), the press were mentionning that Bouygues was looking for €8bil...such amount will be paid in cash & shares but Xavier Niel will have to concede to go below the 50% of iliad...but this is the asking price and I don't think that Xavier Niel will pay that knowing the fact that it will cost himless money to developp its own networks.
* this deal will not be an issue in term of Regulatory as Free & Bouygues Telecom will have between 25% & 30% market share (vs 42.55 for Orange and ~30% for SFR)
* Iliad looks like is the only buyer even if telefonica mentionned in the press but no more details in that, timing is not in favour of Bouygues Telecom...
* AGM on the 20th of May
* Stock traded up to the €220 level and is now back on levels where it was trading just after the move on SFR /Bouygues / Numericable saga...190 appears to be a strong support now...(50d MA also)...Gap has been filled yesterday...{ILD FP Equity GPC <GO>}
* I see between 5% & 7% downside on this one and Upside is at least 15% in case of a deal
* A good hedge for this trade could be Orange {ILD FP Equity ORA FP Equity GRT D }
BUY ILIAD!!!!