Asian Market Update: China Q1 GDP slowed less than expected; Retail sales beat makes up for Industrial Production miss
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA Q1 REAL GDP Q/Q: 1.4% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: 7.4% V 7.3%E; YTD: 7.4% V 7.3%E - (CN) CHINA MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 8.8% V 9.0%E - (CN) CHINA MAR YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 17.6% V 18.0%E - (CN) CHINA MAR RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 12.2% V 12.1%E - (CN) CHINA Q1 BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX: 128.0 V 124.3 PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 CPI Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.7%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAR WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M: 0.0% (3-month high) V -0.1% PRIOR
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +2.3%, S&P/ASX +0.6%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Jun S&P500 +0.4% at 1,846, Jun gold -0.2% at $1,297, May crude oil +0.1% at $103.83/brl
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Strong earnings from Yahoo and Intel could further help to stall the tech sector meltdown observed in the Nasdaq in recent weeks. Yahoo Q1 was in line with estimates, but shares were up over 5% afterhours as Alibaba grew its revenues by over 65% y/y above $3B. Intel results were also in line with consensus but up in extended session. The company raised its gross margin guidance for FY14 and noted pockets of strength in the PC segment, particularly in enterprise and in the emerging markets.
- US Treasury released its Semi-Annual Currency Report without naming China an FX manipulator despite the recent reversal in gradual Yuan appreciation. The Treasury also softened its criticism of German imbalances evident in the prior report, and called for Japan's domestic economic policies to focus on boosting domestic demand.
- China released a raft of economic data that were dominated by a slightly better than expected Q1 GDP figures. Sentiment brightened on the release, sending China stocks, AUD and US equity futures higher at the expense of the risk-on funding JPY currency. Industrial production was a bit lower than expected, but retail sales topped estimates. China stats bureau noted consumption a decisive contributor to Q1 GDP growth, and that it may begin releasing online sales figures as well. NBS further stated the property market is generally stable, overall economy is in reasonable range, and employment is sound. Among notable March industrial production components, power generation grew 6.2% y/y and crude oil output rose 2.6%.
- BOJ Gov Kuroda remarks in Parliament were largely a reiteration, expressing confidence in achieving 2% inflation target from end of FY14 to FY15, and that the current policies are having intended effect. Kuroda also noted labor market is becoming considerably tighter, presumably a precursor to upward wage pressures actively sought by policymakers.
- BHP and Fortescue put out their quarterly production figures. BHP Q1 output of iron ore rose 23% y/y, while that of FMG was up 17%. BHP also raised its iron ore production for FY14 by 5Mt to 217Mt, adding that weather-related disruptions have been limited. Fortescue maintained its forecast, but noted strong iron ore demand from China urbanization policies.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy 250B in 1-3 yr JGB, 250B in 3-5 yr JGB, 400B in 5-10 yr JGB - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$1B in 3.25% bonds due 2018; Avg yield 3.2885%, bid-to-cover 3.12x - (CN) China MoF sells 10-yr bonds; yield 4.3184% - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 0.6 tonnes to 806.8 tonnes (2nd consecutive increase) - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +7.6M (largest build since June 2013) v +1.5Me, GASOLINE: -500K v -1.5Me
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1589 v 6.1571 prior setting (weakest setting since Sept 11th)
- Among the active USD majors, AUD/USD is up over 30pips from the lows above 0.9360 after better than expected China GDP. NZD/USD fell over 30pips below 0.86 after softer than expected Q1 CPI, reaching a low of 0.8577. USD/JPY was boosted by risk-on flows after China data, risking over 40pips above 102.20 - a 1-week high.
***Equities*** US markets: - YHOO: Reports Q1 $0.38 v $0.37e, R$1.09B v $1.08Be; +6.8% afterhours - IBKR: Reports Q1 $0.34 v $0.29e, R$355M v $216M y/y; +3.2% afterhours - INTC: Reports Q1 $0.38 v $0.37e, R$12.8B v $12.8Be; Raises FY14 GM guidance; +1.5% afterhours - CSX: Reports Q1 $0.40 v $0.38e, R$3.01B v $2.99Be; increases quarterly dividend by 7% to $0.16/shr; reaffirms FY guidance; +0.6% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: China Southern Airlines 1055.HK -1.2% (Q1 guidance) - Consumer staples: Shandong Denghai Seeds 002041.CN -1.2% (prelim FY13 results) - Financials: Founder Securities 601901.CN +4.5% (FY13 results) - Materials: BHP Billiton BHP.AU +0.5% (Q3 operating results); Fortescue Metals Group FMG.AU -0.2% (Q3 operating results); Silver Lake Resources SLR.AU +3.0% (Q1 production results); Iluka Resources ILU.AU -6.6% (Q1 production results) - Industrials: Xinjiang Urban Construction Group 600545.CN +9.8%, China West Construction Group 002302.CN +7.8%, Xinjiang International Industry 000159.CN +6.5% (Xinjiang related companies continue to trade higher on press speculation); CNR 601299.CN +0.9% (plans HK listing) - Technology: Beijing Ultrapower Software 300002.CN +2.6% (awarded order); Sharp 6753.JP -0.4% (speculation on FY14/15 results)
After Hours Summary: YHOO +6.1%, IBKR +2.0%, INTC +1.5%, CSX +0.4%, LLTC -2.0% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: YHOO +6.1%, IBKR +2.0%, INTC +1.5%, CSX +0.4%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: EGLE +13.4% (announced extension to waiver and forbearance agreement), CANA +11.4% (announced the appointment of Munjit S. Johal as Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer), ZGNX +8.6% (confirmed ruling preventing the implementation of Massachusetts Governor's order that prevented access to Zohydro ER), DEJ +7.4% (sees 60% increase in net production at Woodrush), WWE +4.8% (announced WrestleMania launch update: reached record 1 mln households in the U.S.),
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: LLTC -2.0%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ATHL -1.2% (launched proposed $500 mln senior notes offering; announced 11 mln share public offering of common stock; announced first quarter 2014 production, horizontal well results & increased 2014 outlook: co's average daily production volumes for the first quarter 2014 reached a record high of 16,987 BOE/d as compared with 9,959 BOE/d produced in the first quarter 2013),
Closing Market Summary: Stocks Post Gains Despite Seeing Intraday Weakness
The major averages finished the session on a modestly higher note, but not before heavy selling pressure sent the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) for a test of its 200-day moving average. The S&P 500, meanwhile, added 0.7% with all ten sectors posting gains.
Equities climbed at the open with the advance built on the relative strength of biotechnology and other momentum names. Despite the solid early gains in those areas, the market began fading from its high as multiple reports pointed to an escalation of tensions in Ukraine. Specifically, a skirmish reportedly took place at the Kramatorsk airbase, but there were inconsistencies with regard to the number of injured. Some reports put the number of casualties between four and 11, while others said there were no casualties. After these reports made the rounds, Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchynov was quoted by Interfax as saying the airfield has been retaken from pro-Russian militants.
With participants watching the news from Ukraine, stocks continued their retreat into the early afternoon, while bonds rallied. The defensive sentiment was also present in the foreign exchange market, where the yen strengthened to 101.50 against the dollar.
Strikingly, equity indices notched their lows just after 13:00 ET and spent the next three hours in a sharp rally back into the green in a move that was accompanied by the return of yen weakness that sent the dollar/yen pair to 101.85.
The rally in equities and the dollar/yen pair seemed to follow reports from Nikkei, suggesting sources think Japan will lower its economic outlook in its upcoming April 17 report. Such a headline presumably fueled some speculation that the downgrade will ultimately invite more policy stimulus from Japan, which was music to the ears of a market that has cheered accommodative monetary policy for quite some time.
As a result of the afternoon rally, the S&P 500 returned to its morning high, while the Nasdaq clawed its way back into the green. Like the Nasdaq, biotechnology climbed off its lows, but the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 217.61, +2.24) was unable to reclaim its 200-day moving average. The biotech ETF added 1.0%, while the broader health care sector advanced 1.1%. Contributing to the sector's strength were shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 99.20, +2.06), which added 2.1% after the company beat on earnings.
Elsewhere, energy (+1.3%) and financials (+0.9%) spent the entire day trading ahead of the broader market, which facilitated the afternoon rebound.
Also of note, the utilities sector (+1.3%) ended ahead of the remaining groups after climbing steadily throughout the session. The rate-sensitive sector extended its year-to-date gain to 11.8%, which speaks to the overall cautious posture that has been exhibited by the market so far in 2014.
Treasuries posted gains, but retreated from their midsession highs during the afternoon rally in equities. The benchmark 10-yr yield slipped three basis points to 2.62%.
Participation was a bit above average as 771 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
Reviewing today's data:
* Consumer prices increased 0.2% in March, up from a 0.1% gain in February. The consensus expected the CPI to increase 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.2% in March and ended a string of three consecutive months of 0.1% gains. The consensus expected these prices to increase 0.1%. The surprises in both the headline and core indices were mainly the result of stronger-than-expected housing costs. The shelter index increased 0.3% in March and accounted for two-thirds of the gain in the core consumer price index. Housing costs increased 2.7% over the last 12 months, which was the largest yearly increase since March 2008. As expected, drought conditions in the west contributed to stronger-than-normal growth in food prices. Food costs increased 0.4% for a second consecutive month. Year-over-year, food prices are up 1.2%, which is the largest yearly gain since August 2012. * The Empire Manufacturing Survey for April registered a reading of 1.3, which was down from the prior month's reading of 5.6. Economists polled expected the survey to improve to 7.5. * The April NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 47 from 46 while the consensus expected the reading to increase to 50.
Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET, while March Housing Starts will be announced at 8:30 ET. March Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will both be reported at 9:15 ET, while the day's data will be topped off with the Federal Reserve's Beige Book for April. The report will be released at 14:00 ET.
* S&P 500 -0.3% YTD * Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.9% YTD * Nasdaq Composite -3.4% YTD * Russell 2000 -3.7% YTD