TheChek News Flow

Pair is starting to perform +3.69%, still believe there is more potential on this one, started to see some flows out of LVMH after seeing few investors jumping in onthe last few weeks playing the fact that MC will be one of the best peformers in eartning Season, but Reassuring numbers form Kering pushed some re-allocation in the sector.

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 22 2014 16:04:37

Follow-Up

Still believe in this trade, RCO weak on -ve article in FT, stock is down on the day, LVMH better.

I will wait to add some more

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 17 2014 10:57:05

{RCO FP Equity MC FP Equity GRT D}

* Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) - Buy

- Q4 Sales a 3% miss, Cognac still weak, we could see some more dwg to consensus EPS, but pfr story is not there anymore.

- Valuation still not cheap regarding the Cognac business but not too far from historical premium the stock is trading with the sector

- RCO is highly correlated to Luxury trend in China and most of dwg has been done

- Few weeks ago M&A rumors re-surface with a blog mentionning Brown& Forman was looking to the company, this blog was mentioning a €85/share minimum price on any deal to get the family to table.

- 55/56 appears to be a strong support.

* LVMH (MC FP) - Sell

- Numbers were published on the 9th of April, the analysis fo numbers show us that we continue to see a down trend in volume that has been so far compensated by price increase, main point of the strategy remained of potential of price increase and maintain margin.

- Stock is trading not far from historical highs (3.5%) and even if we can test this level I don't expect a major break up

Buy Remy Cointreau Sell LVMH - expecting MC to not really move and RCO to go back to the 70's levels

Laurent

Spread is up 4.9% since recommendation - I will take profit on half of the position.

Laurent

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 22 2014 15:58:58

The spread is +4% since we set up on thursday....continue to think that there is some decent potential on this one.

we initiated @ 30.90 (Ratio), trading now @ 32.15 (4% higher), will start to unwind @ 34 (+10%)

Laurent

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 17 2014 12:22:05

{MKS LN Equity AH NA Equity GRT D <GO>}

* Marks & Spencer

- Company pulished on the 10/04 and was weak because of misunderstanding on Q4 Gross Margin Weakness, Company is expected to publish FY on the 20th of May...but numbers have been adjusted now

- M&S generak merchamfise should continue to head in the good direction, food is quite isolated from a branded food price war

- Strong execution from management and potential cash return could help the stock to rebound

- Historically MKS is trading with a 20% to UK Market P/E, trading only with 5% now

* Ahold

- Since Last publication on 27th of Feb stock outperformed the SXRP by 7%, publication can justify that move but there is no clear reason on fumdamentals

- weak LFL sales growth in the US (-2.1%) and in the Netherlands (-1.0%),

- Risk of stiffer competition and margin rebasing in the Dutch market (more powerful competitors, with in particular Jumbo)

- Still no real signs of pick-up in volumes or food inflation in the US

- It looks fully valued to us – trading at a 2014e P/E ratio of 13.7x vs 12.8x for peers

* The spread is trading on bery low historical levels - we can see a quick reversal, historical lows (-3.3% / 29.86 )

MKS 410 levels appear to be a strong support, stock can trade quickly to 460/470 levles

AH : 14 levels are a strong resistance, could see stock trading back on support 200d MA on 13 levels

BUY MKS SELL AHOLD

{CS FP Equity ALV GY Equity GRT D <GO>}

* Axa

- Q1 life sales disappointed due to lower sales of protection and health products but the company guided that it is still expecting growth for the FY.

- P&C revenues growing by 3% and life new business margin rising to 33% from 32%.

- It has been oversold this year, following its very strong share price performance last year, mainly on exaggerated concerns about its exposure to falling US and European interest rates. 

- It offers good growth at an attractive price and that its Asian franchise is undervalued in particular.

- CS has tested strong support on 17.20 levels, downside is limited to 16.88/90, first resitance on 200d MA @ 17.74, if closed higher could quickly test the 18.33

* Allianz

- Allianz is reporting full result tomorrow

- Allianz released strong Q1 headline numbers on May 7th apparently mainly due to strong P&C results, but it looks as if Pimco is still

under considerable pressure.

- The key missing number is outflows at Pimco. Morningstar estimates that Pimco had some $15bn of outflows in Q1 with another $5.5bn in April.

- Pimco remains under pressure, with earnings likely to be down some 24%, causing group operating profit to fall by 3%.

- Limited growth potential in its insurance operations, low growth markets with significant exposure to low German yields.

- The risks of being Short ALV is a continued fall in US bond yields, which might help Pimco’s performance, and stronger than expected growth in its insurance operation.

- On the chart basis upside potential is 2.6% up to 125.20, still a gap open lower 114.18/114.38...the 117.25 is a first support before testing lower levels

BUY CS SELL ALV

- the spread is trading on 10 month low levels...I expect a quick 4% on the spread.