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Can Germany’s New Chancellor Restore Its Leadership Role in Europe?
Incoming chancellor aims to forge rapport with Trump, end immigration crisis and boost economy
Key Points
- Friedrich Merz is expected to become Germany’s new chancellor on Tuesday, and is prioritizing restoring its leadership in Europe.
- Merz aims to repair relations with neighbors and the U.S., end the immigration crisis and restart Germany’s economy.
- Merz will visit Paris and Poland, and consider supplying Ukraine with Taurus missiles.
BERLIN—When Germany’s parliament votes to make Friedrich Merz chancellor on Tuesday, he will face a task that is as simple to describe as it is hard to pull off: to restore his country’s leadership in Europe.
For this, the 69-year old conservative will have to achieve three central objectives, some of which could clash with one another: repair relations with neighbors and forge a rapport with President Trump; end a slow-burn immigration crisis that has poisoned European politics; and restart an economy that has become Europe’s growth laggard.
From his staffing choices to his travel schedule, Merz has telegraphed that foreign policy will be a key priority. He has put a loyalist in charge of the foreign ministry and set up the first ever National Security Council within the chancellery. The new government, he told journalists on Monday, “will make itself heard in Europe and in the world.”
“Merz is signaling that he wants to lead in Europe,” said Henning Hoff, an analyst and executive editor of Internationale Politik Quarterly, an English-language foreign policy magazine. “That’s a change from [his predecessor] Olaf Scholz,” who was more focused on domestic politics.
Merz’s Christian Democratic Union won the election in February and, within hours of taking office on Tuesday, he will be on his way to Paris for his first official visit. The trip is a well-established tradition for newly minted chancellors, but Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron are well-acquainted after meeting twice this year for extended talks.
The duo will be key to forging a common European line toward Trump on issues ranging from security to trade. Topics for discussion in Paris on Wednesday include a possible extension of the French nuclear umbrella to Germany, future European assistance to Ukraine and Europe’s response to Trump’s tariff threats, according to aides.
French and German interests aren’t entirely aligned, but analysts think Merz and Macron can strike mutually advantageous compromises. One possible quid pro quo, said Hoff, could see “part of the cost of extending the French nuclear umbrella to Germany…funded by joint European borrowing,” something Germany has always opposed.
German-U.S. relations have deteriorated rapidly since Trump’s election. Elon Musk called for German voters to back the far-right AfD in this year’s election, while Vice President JD Vance chastised Germany’s centrist parties for ostracizing the group.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal in February, Merz bristled at Musk’s AfD endorsement. Hours after his election, he pledged to make Germany more independent of the U.S.
The mood plumbed a new low on Friday when Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said it had classified the AfD as a far-right extremist organization, a decision Secretary of State Marco Rubio described on X as “tyranny in disguise.”
Continued U.S. support for the AfD could make any U.S.-German rapprochement impossible. Yet aides to Merz, who has defended trans-Atlantic positions for most of his career, say he wants the U.S. to remain as engaged as possible in Europe even as he plans for what many experts see as the inevitability of America’s partial pullback.
After Paris, Merz will fly to Poland and he is expected to visit Ukraine in the next few days. One of Merz’s most closely watched foreign-policy decisions will be whether he delivers on his suggestion last month that he might supply Kyiv with Taurus long-range missiles, which Ukraine has long requested but Scholz never authorized.
The missile has the range and precision to destroy key Russian infrastructure behind the front-line that other weapons in Kyiv’s arsenal can’t reach. Its delivery may not alter the course of the war, but it could strengthen Kyiv’s hand and help bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, according to people familiar with Merz’s thinking.
One key Merz goal that may clash with his foreign-policy objectives is his pledge to crack down on immigration on day one. Merz’s designated chief of staff, Thorsten Frei, said last week the country’s border police would start turning back undocumented migrants including asylum seekers on day one of the government taking office. Merz told a television interview last month that he aimed to bring the number of asylum claims below 100,000 a year—less than half the 2024 level.
Germany, with its generous welfare state, has been a magnet for migrants and is by far the main European destination for asylum seekers. Stefan Marschall, professor of political science at Heinrich Heine University in Düsseldorf, said such a drop in arrivals could cap the rise in support for anti-immigration populists in the region.
Germany’s neighbors have reacted with alarm, however. Poland and Austria have complained that pushing back asylum seekers would breach European Union law while intensive border controls could harm trade and penalize commuters across the border.
Some countries that have served as transit points for migrants on their way to Germany fear being stuck with the newcomers if Berlin shuts the door. Merz’s allies counter that EU rules compelling refugees to claim asylum in their first port of entry into the bloc aren’t being enforced.
Merz’s third immediate priority—fixing the economy—could take longer to pull off. Germany’s export-reliant economy has barely grown since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and most economists expect the economy to stagnate this year after two years of recession.
Merz’s designated coalition pushed a constitutional amendment through parliament just after the election that lifted all fiscal spending limits for defense expenditures and created a €500 billion, equivalent to $565.8 billion, infrastructure fund. Together, these measures could result in about $1 trillion in extra spending over the next decade—a massive boost for the economy.
Much of this is unlikely to be disbursed this year, however, and the spending will need to be accompanied by regulatory changes—expedited defense procurement rules and infrastructure planning procedures, for instance. Beyond a cut in electricity levies and network charges, there is little in the new government’s plans that could boost consumption in the short term.
“We’re not just dealing with a cyclical downturn but mainly with low investment levels that are structural in nature,” said Yannick Bury, a conservative lawmaker and trained economist. “And that’s why we’re particularly focused on structural measures to address this specific weakness.”
Germany’s embattled economy showed some green shoots at the start of the year, including slightly higher-than-expected growth in the first quarter and an uptick in business sentiment. Still, as long as the threat of Trump’s tariffs persist, Germany’s growth prospects will stay grim.
“Whether we can post positive growth this year won’t primarily depend on what fiscal measures we manage to implement,” said Bury. “It will depend mainly on what happens on the tariff front.”
Traders made $100mn from buying Melania Trump memecoin before launch
Small group of digital wallets bought up coins in the minutes before it was announced, FT analysis shows
A small group of traders earned a $99.6mn windfall by buying Melania Trump’s cryptocurrency token in the minutes before it was made public, an analysis by the Financial Times has found.
Melania Trump unveiled the $MELANIA coin in a social media post late on January 19, just hours before her husband was inaugurated as the US president.
In the two and a half minutes before her post went live on Truth Social, two dozen digital wallets bought $2.6mn of the tokens from the crypto marketplace where they had been deposited.
The traders profited when Melania Trump’s post sent the price of the tokens soaring. The wallets offloaded most of their coins rapidly, with 81 per cent of their sales taking place within 12 hours.
Crypto transactions can be tracked on digital ledgers known as “blockchains”, but the entities or individuals who control the wallets that hold and trade coins generally remain anonymous.
The $MELANIA memecoin, a type of crypto token with no functions beyond being a vehicle for speculation, was launched about two days after Donald Trump had launched his own $TRUMP token.
The launch of the two coins comes as the Trump family and its business associates have backed a wide array of crypto ventures. Donald Trump’s administration has been more accommodative in its regulation of crypto than Joe Biden’s government.
The launch process for memecoins enables the price of the tokens to rise sharply from near-zero prices if interest surges, giving earlier buyers the chance to make outsized profits. Crypto enthusiasts refer to accounts that buy big and early to exploit this feature as “snipers”.
Memecoins are not treated as securities under US financial regulations, meaning scheme promoters are not bound by federal disclosure and insider dealing rules designed to protect retail investors.
One wallet that bought prior to launch spent $681,000 on the memecoin in a single transaction 64 seconds before the existence of the project was made public. Within 24 hours, this account had made $39mn from selling most of its holdings. It made a further $4.4mn from selling the rest over the following 3 days.
In total, the 24 accounts bought up 16.7mn of the 200mn total $MELANIA tokens scheduled for sale during the launch period.
When $TRUMP was launched, there were no pre-announcement purchases, with the first sale going through 42 seconds after the publication of the Truth Social post announcing it.
With $MELANIA, the run of sales that started pre-launch continued. About $900,000 worth of tokens bought by an additional 22 accounts in the 42 seconds after the launch.
The FT has previously tracked transactions involving $TRUMP, revealing that entities behind the launch earned at least $350mn — both from sales of the tokens and market-making fees.
$MELANIA was organised by a wholly different group of companies and individuals using different processes. FT analysis suggests that the entities which launched the coin — which are separate to the wallets that traded in it prior to the official announcement — have so far withdrawn profits of $64.7mn from fees and primary sales.
Last month, the price of $TRUMP coin soared when it was announced that large holders would be eligible to join a dinner with Donald Trump, meaning that the stock of 800mn $TRUMP coins still held by the scheme organisers would notionally be worth $9.0bn.
The $MELANIA coin currently trades at $0.33. At these prices, the retained stock of 800mn $MELANIA coins, which were not originally listed for public sale, would be worth $265.9mn.
According to its official website, the $MELANIA coin is marketed by MKT World LLC — a Delaware-registered firm the First Lady has used for various ventures since 2021. The project’s official terms do not clarify whether MKT World is the coin’s issuer, nor how profits will be split with other entities involved. Melania Trump has not responded to requests for comment.
Hayden Davis, a 28-year-old crypto entrepreneur from Texas, has said he was involved in the launch of $MELANIA. Davis, who was listed as chief executive of Kelsier, a crypto business, was also involved in the launch of the $LIBRA memecoin. This token, which was briefly endorsed in February by Javier Milei, the president of Argentina, turned into a political scandal after a price surge and crash.
The first account to buy coins in the run-up to launch bought $40,000 of $MELANIA 141 seconds prior to launch. The account went on to sell 86 per cent of its holding within two hours, making $2.5mn.
The FT has confirmed findings by Bubblemaps, a crypto analytics platform, that this wallet was funded via an account which has previously been used in ventures involving Davis.
In an interview with Stephen Findeisen, an independent crypto journalist known as Coffeezilla, Davis said: “There was no money made from the Melania team. We didn’t take any liquidity out. Zero.”
The FT has sought comment from Davis, whose company websites have been taken down and who has stopped issuing public statements in the wake of the $LIBRA scandal.
Capital flies into Europe’s defence drone start-ups
Quantum Systems and Tekever each valued at more than €1bn in latest fundraisings, as new investors flock to ‘dual use’ tech companies
European investors are putting hundreds of millions of euros into two surveillance drone companies, Quantum Systems and Tekever, in deals that value each of the defence technology start-ups at more than €1bn.
New investors are flocking to the market for defence or “dual use” technology, which can be used in both civilian applications and on the battlefield.
The latest rounds come as the makers of drones deployed in Ukraine’s war with Russia scale up production as Europe races to boost its defence capabilities, following the Trump administration’s threats to withdraw US military support in the region.
Munich-based Quantum Systems has raised €160mn led by Balderton Capital, in the London-based venture firm’s first defence tech investment, alongside strategic backers Hensoldt and Airbus Defence and Space.
The deal, which also includes existing investors including US venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel, values Quantum at more than €1bn, according to people familiar with the terms.
“The goal is to make the battlefield transparent and have real-time aerial intelligence from every part of the front line,” said Florian Seibel, co-chief executive and co-founder of Quantum Systems. “You can only shoot if you know where to shoot. So you need eyes in the sky.”
Separately Tekever, which was founded in Portugal in 2001, said it raised tens of millions of euros from its existing investors, led by long-term existing backer Ventura Capital. Its new valuation is “beyond £1bn”, Ricardo Mendes, chief executive of Tekever, told the FT, but he refused to specify the exact amount raised.
Tekever last year raised €70mn in a round led by Baillie Gifford that was also backed by the Nato Innovation Fund.
Investment in European start-ups working on defence and related technologies jumped 24 per cent in 2024 to $5.2bn, according to figures from the Nato Innovation Fund and research group Dealroom.
Quantum’s technology brings together drone hardware, software and artificial intelligence to build autonomous systems for real-time “aerial intelligence”. Its products have been used by countries including Germany, Ukraine and the US.
After struggling to commercialise its drones in its initial target market of agriculture, Seibel, a former helicopter pilot in the German armed forces, decided to use commercial technology to take on traditional defence companies. “They are slow, they are expensive, they are arrogant,” he said. Its new product was ready just as Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.
Quantum generated €110mn in revenue last year and is on track to hit more than €200mn this year, Seibel said. It has production capacity in multiple countries to produce up to 4,000 drones a year in various configurations.
Rana Yared, general partner at Balderton Capital, said Quantum could “scale quickly” to become one of the leading lights of Europe’s defence tech industries.
Balderton wanted to invest in Quantum, which has more than doubled its annual revenue for the past several years, because of its diversity of customers and applications, which also include mining, infrastructure and emergency services.
“Our goal is to invest in companies that have great trajectories in a world that is highly peaceful,” Yared said. “It would be cavalier to invest in a company that only does well in this negative geopolitical [situation].”
Nonetheless, the battlefields of Ukraine have driven rapid growth for many defence tech start-ups, including Munich-based Helsing, which has raised hundreds of millions of euros.
Mendes said the war in Ukraine had made every government “in Europe aware that the nature of the technology being used in the field has changed”.
Demand has been such that Tekever has been “more than doubling” its production capacity every year. It expects to produce more than 200 systems this year. One of the biggest challenges, he said, is how quickly the industry can scale up.
Tekever, which also has operations in the UK, makes AI-enabled drones for surveillance and reconnaissance missions. Two of its drones, the AR3 and the AR5, have been used extensively in Ukraine, enabling precision strikes using real-time intelligence. Other customers include the European Maritime Safety Agency and the UK Home Office.
Mendes said its new funds would help Tekever, which is already profitable, to deliver on a pledge to invest £400mn in the UK over the next five years.
Whitbread is definitely maybe a play on the Britpop revival
The owner of the Premier Inn chain is on the right side of the cultural and economic moment for now
If Taylor Swift’s performances are said to boost whole economies, can Britpop returnees Oasis do the same this summer for UK hoteliers? Asking for Whitbread, owner of the Premier Inn chain.
Whitbread’s shares are up roughly 10 per cent since the beginning of April, compared with a flat performance for the FTSE 100 and for bigger blue-chip rival InterContinental Hotels Group. In its full-year financials released last week, softening profit was balanced against strong room bookings and a £250mn share buyback.
Crediting the Gallagher brothers’ reunion for a recent rally in its shares is too much, but their tour is a handy starting point for considering what might sustain the group’s gains. The case against Whitbread is that hotels are one of the most cyclical industries and the UK economy is softening. Cost-conscious consumers travel less.
Premier Inn, though, is at the budget end of the market. Its hotels are not vacation destinations, but where, say, wedding guests stay after blanching at the cost of the happy couple’s pricey venue. Business travel is in fact growing, the company says, as managers look for more budget-friendly options. Big sports fixtures and big concerts such as Oasis are other reliable room-fillers.
Analysts at Citigroup estimate 1.5mn fans will attend Oasis’s 15 sold-out UK gigs, compared with the 1.3mn Swifties who turned out for the Eras Tour’s UK dates last year. If half stay in hotels, sharing rooms, the Citi analysts reckon that’s a hefty 3 per cent of the entire UK room supply on concert days. Reports abound of hotels near gigs hastily raising prices, though Premier Inn’s prices are capped.
Even without Swift, Oasis or the economy improving, Whitbread believes it can meet its 2030 targets. That’s due to a mix of rising profits from its fast-growing German business, tight UK room supply helping at home, cost efficiencies such as a recent switch to robot vacuums and the financial flexibility from owning its hotels.
Its likely that Whitbread’s shares have benefited less from any champagne supernova or its operational resiliency than from the fact that, unusually among FTSE 100 companies, it has no US business. That insulates it somewhat from President Donald Trump’s uncertain trade policies.
Of course, nothing can entirely shield a hotelier from events outside its control. A sharper downturn would hit that business travel growth and leave even nostalgic music fans counting the pennies. For now, though, Whitbread is on the right side of the cultural and economic moment, and investors might as well roll with it.
European and Asian carmakers face steep shipping costs to US on top of tariffs
Trump’s new port fee policy threatens to wreak havoc on the $150bn American seaborne car import market
European and Asian carmakers, already reeling from Donald Trump’s tariffs, face being saddled with steeper costs when shipping vehicles to the US, as Washington’s new port fee policy threatens to wreak havoc on the $150bn American seaborne car import market.
Having been ensnared in the shipping war between Washington and Beijing, car carrier operators will have to pay $150 for every vehicle they have capacity to carry into the US from October. That could equate to additional fees of about $1.8bn a year for the car carrier sector, according to Clarksons Research.
This comes after the US Trade Representative (USTR) in mid-April imposed a blanket fee on all non-US built vessels entering American ports, causing panic in the European, Japanese and South Korean shipping industries.
Lasse Kristoffersen, chief executive of the leading vehicle shipping line Wallenius Wilhelmsen, told the Financial Times the extra costs would end up with carmakers and other customers, and ultimately “the consumer will pay”.
“The uncertainty is so big that you stop making cars, you’re pausing decisions, you’re delaying exports and sourcing of parts,” Kristoffersen said.
The global seaborne car trade, which totalled roughly $600bn last year, involves a fleet of 836 specialised vessels. The new fee regime will cost as much as $1.2mn per US voyage for a large vessel, which the World Shipping Council says can transport 8,000 cars.
Many carmakers face 25 per cent tariffs on foreign-made vehicles imported into the US, and groups from Audi and Jaguar Land Rover to Aston Martin have halted vehicle shipments to the US because of the levies.
Mitsui OSK Lines, the world’s second-largest shipowner, said it was worried the new port policy in the US “might impact significantly on the global supply chain of the car industry”.
Andreas Enger, chief executive of Scandinavian car carrier operator Höegh Autoliners, in late April said the new costs would need to be shared by its customers. “It is an uncertainty both on the effect of the tariffs on our customers and the trade flows,” he said at the company’s latest earnings briefing.
Clarksons’ data for 2024 shows the car carrier industry moved a record 29mn vehicles, of which 4.6mn headed to the US.
US efforts to challenge Chinese supremacy in commercial shipbuilding began under Joe Biden’s administration, which opened an investigation in April last year into alleged unfair Chinese economic practices in shipbuilding and maritime logistics.
A bipartisan group of US lawmakers on Wednesday reintroduced the so-called “Ships for America Act” to reboot the US shipbuilding industry.
According to USTR, China’s shipbuilding market share has soared from virtually nothing in the 1990s to more than 50 per cent in 2023, while Chinese ownership of the global commercial fleet has risen to more than 19 per cent as of early 2025.
The new measures are aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing of ships but they were significantly watered down from an earlier proposal to impose fees of up to $1.5mn on ships built in China following warnings from US exporters of higher freight rates and ultimately higher prices for American consumers.
Car carrier operators were caught off-guard with new fees that target not just Chinese but all foreign-built vessels, with no exemptions for frequency of calls that were offered to other segments.
The new fees can be delayed for three years if operators order and take delivery of a car carrier built at a US yard during that period.
World Shipping Council CEO Joe Kramek said: “It’s not realistic. There are no yards in the US that can do it, and the shipbuilding capacity that is in the US is going to hold out for naval contracts because ultimately they’re more profitable.”
Only one vessel in the current global fleet of deep-sea car carriers was built in the US. About a fifth of the current car carrier capacity was built in China, while Japan accounted for 47 per cent. The US only accounted for 0.1 per cent.
Carmakers face a further problem as China accounts for 86 per cent of the new vessels that have been ordered and are being built, according to Clarksons.
Kramek said USTR had decided to impose uncapped fees on all car carriers — not just Chinese-owned or operated vessels — without prior notice to the industry.
Vehicle shipping groups are contesting the legal basis for regulating car carriers made by countries other than the US with some shipping executives hopeful that the fees will be adjusted before their implementation later this year.
Kramek said: “These measures apply to all foreign-build vessels, even though USTR’s stated aim is to curb Chinese behaviours in the commercial shipping market. It does raise questions over whether the USTR has overstepped its authority.”
After Hours Summary: F -2.6% on earnings and suspending FY25 guidance; NBIX +13%, UPWK +11.1%, TDW +9.7%, TALO +9.2% higher on earnings; WRD +18.2% as it expands Uber partnership
After Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: TDUP +16.7%, AMRC +16.5%, SIBN +13.3%, NBIX +13%, UPWK +11.1%, TDW +9.7%, TALO +9.2% (also increases buyback authorization to $200 mln), RRX +8.1%, PRIM +5.9%, ERO +5.9%, CE +5.6% (also to divest its Micromax portfolio; also announces price increases), SPNT +4.7%, BWXT +3.8%, STRL +3.8%, TTAM +3.7%, DORM +3.4%, LTC +3.1%, AROC +2.5% (also increases buyback program by $50 mln), ADUS +2.3%, AL +2.3%, NJR +2.3%, SNDX +2.1%, CIB +2.1%, VNOM +2%, MWA +1.9%, VNO +1.7%, LMB +1.6%, SBRA +1.4%, NMFC +1.3%, NGVT +1.2%, SUI +1.1%, NVTS +1%, CRH +0.8%, GBDC +0.7%, IAC +0.7%, BFAM +0.5%, INSP +0.5%, CERT +0.3%, ACM +0.1%, WMB +0.1% (also CEO to become Exec Chairman; names new CEO)
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: WRD +18.2% (Uber and WRD expand partnership), BLUE +4.3% (CG receives final regulatory approvals to complete acquisition of BLUE), ZEUS +2.9% (files for $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering), UTZ +2.2% (CEO, among others, discloses insider purchases), ARAY +1.5% (announces first SRS/SBRT patient treatments in Austria with the CyberKnife System), DOV +1.1% (to acquire SIKORA AG for €550 mln), PDM +0.5% (CEO and one Director disclose the purchase of 19,615 shares), VAL +0.4% (to sell jackup VALARIS 247), FLD +0.2% (names new COO), KGC +0.2% (acquires 7,574,237 units of Eminent Gold), CAH +0.2% (increases dividend), AWK +0.1% (files rate request), THO +0.1% (partnership to optimize production)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: TCMD -21.1%, HSTM -13.2%, JELD -12.8%, ICHR -12.4%, PRAA -9.8%, BRBR -9.1%, PLTR -8.6%, CORT -7.5%, FN -6.7%, LSCC -5.6%, EVER -5.1%, MATX -5.1%, ETD -4%, HIMS -3.5%, VMEO -2.9%, VRTX -2.7%, F -2.6% (suspending FY25 guidance, also names new COO), CLX -2.5%, DENN -2.4%, VVX -2.2%, CBT -2.1% (also increases dividend), OTTR -2.1%, CRGY -2.1%, CTRA -1.8%, IPAR -1.7%, PAY -1%, ADEA -0.8%, WEAV -0.7% (also to acquire TrueLark), AESI -0.6%, FANG -0.4%, O -0.3%, BCC -0.1%, MAT -0.1%, PLYA -0.1%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: SHLS -2.9% (to collaborate on up to 12 GW of solar projects), CSTL -1.6% (to acquire Capsulomics, d/b/a Previse), LDOS -0.2% (will modernize and operate IT for Defense Threat Reduction Agency), RKLB -0.2% (announces launch window), BOOT -0.2% (names new CEO), UBER -0.2% (Uber and WRD expand partnership), CLDX -0.1% (announces presentation of data from Phase 2 study of barzolvolimab), NKE -0.1% (senior leadership changes)