>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 5th of May 2025

>>> Up
* Airbus Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 175 euros
* Lundbeck Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 44 kroner

>>> Down
* AMS-Osram Cut to Sell at Research Partners; PT 5.80 Swiss francs
* Microsoft Cut to Accumulate at Phillip Secs; PT $480
* OTP Bank Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 28,600 forint
* Raisio Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 2.40 euros
* Spotify Cut to Reduce at Phillip Secs; PT $600

>>> Initiation
* Adidas Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT 265 euros
* Meta Rated New Buy at Sealand Securities
* Thor Medical ASA Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 4 kroner

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 5th of May 2025

Asian currencies advanced amid broad weakness in the dollar and US assets as investors awaited further progress on trade deals. Crude oil slumped 3.6% after OPEC+ agreed to a further surge in output. A gauge of regional currencies rose, with the Taiwan dollar surging as much as 5% in the biggest intraday gain in over three decades, and the Malaysian ringgit rising 1% to the highest since October. The dollar declined for a second day and US equity-index futures dropped 0.7%, after President Donald Trump said he had no plans to talk to his Chinese counterpart this week. Gold rallied as much 1%. There’s no cash trading in Treasuries in Asia as Japan is closed for a holiday, along with markets in Hong Kong and China. A combination of repatriation buying and traders seeking alternative investments amid the “sell America” wave has helped Asian currencies strengthen recently. Financial markets have steadied in the past two weeks - the S&P 500 on Friday posted its longest winning streak in two decades - amid signs that talks with Asian nations are progressing and trade tensions between China and the US are thawing.  After several days of rally built on hopes of trade deals and policy clarity, markets are now digesting the complexity of achieving comprehensive trade agreements, which suggest prolonged uncertainty impacting business decisions, she said. Trump suggested that his administration could soon strike trade deals with some countries. The president also said in an interview Sunday on NBC that he’s willing to lower the tariff on Chinese imports to spur trade. He also signaled that his aides are having conversations with counterparts from China. Last week, the Asian nation said it’s evaluating talks with the US. The currency strength in Asia has traders on watch for more signs of central bank intervention to protect their currencies from a further rapid appreciation. Speculators have turned the most bearish against the dollar since September. The Taiwan dollar jumped to the strongest level in about three years on speculation exporters are rushing to convert their holdings of the greenback to the island’s currency. Last week, the Taiwanese central bank had intervened as the currency soared. On Friday, Hong Kong stepped in for the first time since 2020 to defend its peg, buying a record amount of US dollars after the city’s currency rose to the upper end of its trading band. The Hong Kong dollar tested the strong end of its allowable trading band for a second session Monday.  The Australian dollar edged higher after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese won a strong mandate to tackle much-needed economic reform and bargain with the Trump administration on tariffs. The Singapore dollar strengthened after the ruling People’s Action Party also secured a convincing victory at the weekend’s election. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ major production increase added to supply at a time when demand is challenged by the drag from the trade war. The alliance — led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — has been reversing prolonged output curbs that were meant to support prices, but which cost it market share to rival drillers. In corporate news, Shell Plc is working with advisers to evaluate a potential acquisition of BP Plc, though it’s waiting for further stock and oil price declines before deciding whether to pursue a bid, according to people familiar with the matter. Shell may also wait for BP to reach out or for another suitor to make a first move, and its current work may help get prepared for such a scenario, they said. Warren Buffett, who built Berkshire Hathaway Inc. into a business valued at more than $1.16 trillion and himself into a celebrity billionaire renowned for his investing acumen and witticisms, will step down at year-end after six decades atop the conglomerate. Greg Abel, the vice chairman for non-insurance operations, will take charge of the conglomerate.  This week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to testify in Congress on fiscal and economy policy and the Bank of England and the Fed will give policy decisions.

Nikkei Closed Hang Seng Closed CSI Closed Shanghai Closed Shenzen Closed

Eur$ 1.1340 CNH 7.2000 CNY 7.2713 JPY 144.10 GBP 1.3299 CHF 0.8232 RUB 82.8080 TRY 38.5822 WTI$ 55.97 -3.98% Gold 3,259.50 +0.58% BTC 94,431 -1.36% ETH 1,806 -1.70%

Dow -0.69% S&P -0.71% Nasdaq -0.69% EuroStoxx -0.15% FTSE Closed Dax -0.08% SMI -0.29%

Macro :
- US Prepares Air-Traffic Overhaul as Vulnerabilities Rock Newark
- Atlas Holdings Raises Over $6.4 Billion to Back Troubled Companies -- WSJ
- Dubai Ruler’s Investment Firm Plans to List Residential REIT
- Billionaire Nassef Sawiris Says Private Equity Past Its Peak: FT
- Trump Plans 100% Tariff on Foreign Movies, Escalating Trade War
- George Simion takes decisive lead in Romanian presidential election first round

Keep an eye on :
- ADS GY : Nike, Adidas Call on Trump to Exempt Footwear From Tariffs
- AAL LN : De Beers chief says Donald Trump’s diamond tariffs are of no benefit to US jobs
- AAPL US : Apple Strikes Deal With Anthropic on AI System to Write Software
- AAPL US : Apple Plans iPhone Release Schedule Shakeup, New Styles
- SLBEN PL : Novo Banco to Auction 3.28% Stake in Benfica SAD, Negocios Says
- BMW GY : BMW ends 180 agency staff contracts at Mini factory in Oxford
- BRK/A US : BRK/A 1Q Operating Earnings $9.64B Vs. $11.22B Y/y: Snapshot
- BRK/A US : Buffett’s Exit to Lift Energy Executive Abel to Berkshire CEO
- BA US : FAA Adopting New Airworthiness Directive for All Boeing 747S
- BP/ LN : Shell Is Said to Study Merits of BP Deal as Rival’s Stock Slumps
- IAG LN : British Airways says suspending Tel Aviv flights until May 7 after airport strike
- CAN LN : Trump Plans 100% Tariff on Foreign Movies, Escalating Trade War
- CARLB DC : Carlsberg CEO Says Brewer Won’t Invest Too Much in China: Borsen
- ETL FP : Eutelsat Names Fallacher as CEO, Confirms FY Targets
- LHA GY : Lufthansa says suspending Tel Aviv flights to May 6 after airport attack
- NKE US : Nike, Adidas Call on Trump to Exempt Footwear From Tariffs
- NOVOB DC : Novo’s New Drug Application for Oral Wegovy Accepted by US FDA
- RATOB SS : Ratos 1Q Operating Profit From Continuing Ops Beats Estimates
- REN PL : Portuguese Electricity Demand Rose 0.9% in April, REN Says
- SHEL LN : Shell Is Said to Study Merits of BP Deal as Rival’s Stock Slumps
- SKAB SS : Skanska Gets SEK880m Order to Rebuild Part of Lundbyleden
- STM GY : Stabilus 2Q Adjusted Ebit EU37.7M Vs. EU38.9M Y/y
- TTMT IN : Jaguar Land Rover restarts US car exports amid fears of Trump tariff snub
- TEF SM : Telefonica Chairman Mulls Up to 5,000 Job Cuts: El Confidencial
- TSLA US : Musk at Milken Says AI Can Offset Losing Some Government Workers
- UBER US : Uber has Withdrawn Interest for Gensol’s Blusmart EVs: Mint
- VOD LN : Vodafone Idea Amends Shareholder Agreement to Retain Control
- WBD IM : Webuild Wins $147 Million Arbitration Award Against Argentina

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • BP (BPE5 TH) +2.7%
    • Shell Said to Study Merits of BP Deal as Rival’s Stock Drops (1)
  • Novo (NOV TH) +1.6%
  • Redeia (RE21 TH) +1.6%
  • Bavarian Nordic (BV3 TH) +1.5%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) +1.4%
    • NOTE: Ram Brings Back Cheaper Made-in-America Pickup to Fuel Recovery
  • Prysmian (AEU TH) +1.1%
  • UPM-Kymmene (RPL TH) -1%
  • Prosus (1TY TH) -1.3%
  • Schneider Electric (SND TH) -1.3%
  • Var Energi (J4V TH) -1.4%
  • Equinor (DNQ TH) -1.4%
  • L’Oreal (LOR TH) -1.6%
  • Repsol (REP TH) -1.8%
  • Aker BP (ARC TH) -2%
  • International Distribution (RYE TH) -4.6%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

MDAX:
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1.9%
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) +1.2%
  • K+S (SDF TH) -1.2%
  • Evotec (EVT TH) -2%
SDAX:
  • Fielmann (FIE TH) +2.7%
  • SAF-Holland SE (SFQ TH) +2.5%
  • Friedrich Vorwerk Group SE (VH2 TH) +2%
  • Stabilus (STM TH) +2%
  • Draegerwerk (DRW3 TH) +1.8%
  • Douglas AG (DOU TH) -1.5%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -1.6%

WWD : Why a Youthquake Is Roiling Europe’s Fashion Houses


Why a Youthquake Is Roiling Europe’s Fashion Houses
A wave of fortysomething designers are taking the helms of heritage houses, leaving many marquee talents looking for work, or pursuing new ventures.


Fashion’s great game of musical chairs is not only shortening the tenure of creative directors, it has temporarily sidelined some of the industry’s most famous and accomplished talents.

Chalk it up to fashion’s relentless hunger for newness, its long-standing obsession with youth — plus a new appreciation for internal mobility, observers say.

“The necessity of creating the new is really something that always regulates the industry, so the disposability of people is part of that,” said Marco Pecorari, assistant professor and program director of the master of arts in fashion studies at Parsons Paris.

Underscoring the enduring fashionability of change in fashion, marquee talents including John Galliano, Hedi Slimane, Pierpaolo Piccioli and Kim Jones are now free agents following the recent appointments of their successors at Maison Margiela, Celine, Valentino and Dior Men, respectively.

While the circumstances at each fashion house were unique, with some designers resigning and others exiting at the end of their latest contract, the end result points to another youthquake moment.

In addition, in December, Chanel named Bottega Veneta fashion star Matthieu Blazy, 40, as its new artistic director of fashion activities, succeeding Virginie Viard, 62.

Pecorari drew a parallel between the most recent flurry of designer changes and the late ’90s and early 2000s, when Europe’s luxury conglomerates were forming and such famous houses as Gucci, Dior, Givenchy, Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta and Louis Vuitton welcomed mostly young, buzzy talents to reawaken dusty heritage names, setting a template that largely endures to this day.

“How fashion can be attractive to young generations has always been an important thing,” he said. “I think often age is an answer to that, so taking on younger designers.”

He cited as an example Ferragamo conscripting Maximilian Davis, then 27, as its new creative director in 2022, thrusting the relatively green Trinidadian-British designer into the international spotlight. “That’s a typical example when a brand really sees the necessity of attracting and dialoguing and connecting to a completely different generation,” he said.

Indeed, “the idea of going for young blood, let’s say, has always been there,” Pecorari said, mentioning the historic example of Yves Saint Laurent succeeding Christian Dior in 1957 at the age of 21.

Fast-forward to today, and a host of fortysomething designers are rising up the ranks.

“This year, coming fashion weeks will mark history,” said Floriane de Saint Pierre, who runs an eponymous executive search and luxury consultancy in Paris, highlighting the unprecedented number of designer debuts coming up at the most influential brands in fashion, also mentioning Bottega Veneta, Versace, Jil Sander and Jean Paul Gaultier.

“Among multibillion-euro brands such as Gucci, Dior Homme and Loewe, which have announced a marquee name, two out of three chose a talent inside the group,” she noted, referring to Demna’s appointment at Gucci after a stellar, and at times controversial, stint at Balenciaga and Jonathan Anderson to Dior menswear after an acclaimed 11-year tenure at Loewe.

“Choosing an internal talent might be equally dictated by promoting talent or by pragmatism,” she said.

(Anderson is also widely expected to become creative director of women’s collections at Dior, ultimately succeeding Maria Grazia Chiuri, 61.)

Although the Antwerp-based house is of a much smaller scale, Dries Van Noten also selected a young, inside talent — Julian Klausner, 33 — to succeed the namesake founder, who retired from the runway last year at age 66.

Meanwhile, “all other large influential brands have chosen creative directors without a marquee name, but highly prepared career credentials,” de Saint Pierre said, referring to the likes of Versace’s new chief creative officer Dario Vitale, previously Miu Miu’s ready-to-wear design director, and Michael Rider, who will make his debut at Celine this July after years in the studio of Polo Ralph Lauren.

Brands such as Missoni and Joseph have also opted for industry veterans. Missoni promoted Alberto Caliri, who’d been with the brand since 1998, to creative director, while Joseph named Mario Arena, who has more than 30 years experience in luxury, to the design helm.

Other new appointees had already logged their first success as creative directors, with Carven and Lacoste alumni Louise Trotter taking over at Bottega Veneta, Gucci alum Simone Bellotti graduating from Bally to Jil Sander, and Glenn Martens taking on Maison Margiela while continuing to lead sister OTB brand Diesel.

“In this time of global economic uncertainty, the ability to bring an inspiring global narrative, fresh design creativity and combine it with an efficient product offering is for sure a key success factor,” de Saint Pierre said. “Most recent hirings seem to reflect this.”

She noted that influential fashion brands of a smaller scale tend to choose a designer, whether younger or senior, “whose talent will generate high attention,” mentioning the choices of Duran Lantink for Jean Paul Gaultier and Haider Ackermann for Tom Ford.

All of that change has left a good number of seasoned creative directors out of the spotlight, including Luke and Lucie Meier, who exited Jil Sander in February; Sabato De Sarno, ousted from Gucci the same month; Jeremy Scott, now doing beauty and theater projects in his post-Moschino career; Kris Van Assche, previously leading Berluti and Dior Men, and Riccardo Tisci, formerly of Burberry and Givenchy.

(As reported on May 1, Tisci is facing allegations of sexual assault in New York, which he denies).

Parsons’ Pecorari noted that seasoned fashion stars like Galliano and Slimane “have the agency not to be involved anymore” in a changing fashion system they may no longer relate to.

He was referring to a gradual erosion of in-depth research and development in fashion houses in favor of speedier design processes for the social-media generations, and sped-up collection cycles. “It feels like almost a reaction to the ways in which the business is going,” he commented.

Mary Gallagher, senior consultant at Find executive consulting, said star designers have “been responsible not only for their previous brands’ bottom-line success, but also for the image and recognition of fashion in general. Even if they’re not currently attached to a brand, they are being sought after.”

That said, given the intensity of the fashion system and sped-up collection cycles, “I think it can be a healthy thing for creatives who are constantly in the spotlight to sideline themselves before jumping back into the fray,” Gallagher commented. “There are a lot of instances of star designers taking on smaller projects during their sabbaticals, like when Phoebe Philo consulted for Gap, Riccardo Tisci’s designs for Nike, and Natacha Ramsay-Levi’s collaborations with APC and Ecco. Some, like Helmut Lang and Martin Margiela, pursued their second act and never looked back. Creative people are rarely ready to be put out to pasture.”

Emma Davidson, owner and managing director of the London-based fashion recruitment firm Denza, would agree.

“Some creatives want to take a break and reset, or they have non-compete clauses. Those who have started their own brands are maybe doing both, and letting the heat die down so their new work gets to speak. They may be securing financing for personal projects, or preparing to launch their own collections. And those things take time,” she said.

Other designers are financially comfortable enough to take a break on their own terms.

Over the past two decades “the remuneration for creative directors has been extraordinary, so people can afford to take a break for five years,” said Giles Deacon, who has his own couture business and designs for the Richemont-owned James Purdey & Sons and the interiors brand Sanderson. (In the late ’90s, he was called upon by Bottega Veneta to rev up that business.)

Deacon said Slimane, who left the creative helm of Celine last year, has managed his career with aplomb, pursuing his interests in design and photography, and working to his own timetable. “If a designer has an opportunity to recalibrate, I think it’s the intelligent thing to do,” he said.

To be sure, those so-called star designers are still a strong and “secure” option for brands, especially when “there is a need of sure success” and/or a reshuffle of the business, with Gucci’s choice of Demna as a good example, given his long experience and design chops, Percorari said.

Louis Vuitton’s recruitment of Pharrell Williams as its men’s creative director in 2023 also exemplified the cult of personality that has become part and parcel of fashion’s marketing mechanisms.

Cardi B recently launched an apparel and beauty partnership with Revolve, and Rihanna, Beyoncé and A$AP Rocky are among other musicians with fashion ventures.

Indeed, the “star” factor is so strong today that Pecorari confessed that April Fool’s posts that Balenciaga had chosen singer Charli XCX as its new creative director seemed almost plausible.

“It was not so far from what you might expect brands to do,” he said. “Fashion went from being a quite exclusive, relatively small business to a globalized phenomenon where it becomes popular culture.”

Some would argue that picking a celebrity is the wrong way forward.

“I see the companies behind brands looking for hype rather than caring about what collections are about, their stories, and the joy they can bring to our lives,” said Davidson.

She added that when it comes to celebrities, “The Row is the only brand where actors have been successful.” Founded by twin sister actresses Ashley and Mary-Kate Olsen, The Row is something of an outlier in the luxury business.

But sometimes brands need celebrities to bridge creative director appointments, and buy themselves time to find the right person.

“Vision, gifts, skill and inspiration can come from the most unexpected quarters and many talents are inherently good at easily going from one activity to another, whether it’s product designers, arbiters of style, or athletes who inform design through their expertise and needs,” Gallagher opined.

Davidson agreed that creatives come in all shapes and sizes, and whomever is doing the job “just needs to be ready to apply their creativity in different ways, and be given a positive environment to do it in.”

That search for “the one” can often be lengthy, with brands — and especially the publicly quoted ones — under intense pressure to produce a marquee name pronto.

De Saint Pierre lamented that few houses are ready with a succession plan following the departure of a creative director, even though “brand equity and performance are strongly related to creative leadership.”

“Today, more than ever, governance of short- and long-term performance is related to governance of brand and creative leadership, which must be at the center of key stakeholders’ attention — shareholders, boards and the CEO,” she explained. “Talents are few and are often not available quickly when needed. Looking long-term in brand and creative leadership strategy and acting through ongoing reviews is certainly a good governance practice.”

WSJ : How Bad Is China’s Economy? The Data Needed to Answer Is Vanishing

How Bad Is China’s Economy? The Data Needed to Answer Is Vanishing
Beijing has stopped publishing hundreds of statistics, making it harder to know what’s going on in the country

Not long ago, anyone could comb through a wide range of official data from China. Then it started to disappear.

Land sales measures, foreign investment data and unemployment indicators have gone dark in recent years. Data on cremations and a business confidence index have been cut off. Even official soy sauce production reports are gone.

In all, Chinese officials have stopped publishing hundreds of data points once used by researchers and investors, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.

In most cases, Chinese authorities haven’t given any reason for ending or withholding data. But the missing numbers have come as the world’s second biggest economy has stumbled under the weight of excessive debt, a crumbling real-estate market and other troubles—spurring heavy-handed efforts by authorities to control the narrative.


China’s National Bureau of Statistics stopped publishing some numbers related to unemployment in urban areas in recent years. After an anonymous user on the bureau’s website asked why one of those data points had disappeared, the bureau said only that the ministry that provided it stopped sharing the data.

The disappearing data have made it harder for people to know what’s going on in China at a pivotal time, with the trade war between Washington and Beijing expected to hit China hard and weaken global growth. Plunging trade with the U.S. has already led to production shutdowns and job cuts.

Getting a true read on China’s growth has always been tricky. Many economists have long questioned the reliability of China’s headline gross domestic product data, and concerns have intensified recently. Official figures put GDP growth at 5% last year and 5.2% in 2023, but some have estimated that Beijing overstated its numbers by as much as 2 to 3 percentage points.

To get what they consider to be more realistic assessments of China’s growth, economists have turned to alternative sources such as movie box office revenues, satellite data on the intensity of nighttime lights, the operating rates of cement factories and electricity generation by major power companies. Some parse location data from mapping services run by private companies such as Chinese tech giant Baidu to gauge business activity.

One economist said he has been assessing the health of China’s services sector by counting news stories about owners of gyms and beauty salons who abruptly close up and skip town with users’ membership fees.

State of the economy
Questions over China’s GDP figures go back years. Former Chinese premier Li Keqiang famously told the U.S. ambassador in 2007 that GDP data for a Chinese province he governed at the time were “man-made” and therefore unreliable, according to a leaked U.S. diplomatic cable. Instead, he said he kept track of electricity consumption, rail-freight volumes and new bank loans.

Official GDP figures were “for reference only,” he confided to the ambassador, according to the cable. Li died in October 2023.

China’s official GDP growth of 5% in 2024 exactly matched the target the government had set the previous year. Economists privately dismissed the figure, with one telling the Journal it would have been more credible if authorities had released something lower. Retail sales, construction activity and other data painted a considerably weaker picture, they noted.

Bank of Finland and Capital Economics have generally found bigger swings in GDP than what China reports—and its estimates are lower than official figures in recent quarters.

In December, a prominent Chinese economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, Gao Shanwen, said at a conference in Washington that China’s economic growth “might be around 2%” the past few years, adding, “we do not know the true number of China’s real growth figure.”

China’s leader Xi Jinping ordered that Gao be disciplined and he has been banned from speaking publicly for an unspecified period. The Securities Association of China warned brokerages in late December to ensure their economists “play a positive role” in boosting investor confidence.

China’s statistics bureau has defended its data practices, saying that data quality has improved over the years and that it has taken steps to ensure accuracy and investigate any misconduct during collection.

In February, Goldman Sachs came up with an alternative way of measuring China’s economic growth by crunching figures such as import data, which can be read as proxies for domestic spending. The thinking was that trade data get published frequently and is hard to fudge, since China’s trading partners also report those numbers.

That approach implied that China’s growth in 2024 averaged 3.7%. Using a different method, Rhodium Group, a New York-based research outfit, said growth was closer to 2.4% in 2024.

Vanishing act
Presenting an image of stability is paramount for China’s Communist Party, especially now, with many middle-class Chinese worried about the future and the country entering uncharted territory in its competition with the U.S.

Often, the data that goes missing involves areas of high sensitivity or headaches for Beijing, such as the property market, whose collapse in recent years wiped out billions of dollars of household wealth and triggered protests by frustrated home buyers.

During the boom years, China’s developers furiously bought up land from local governments at sky-high prices. The transactions poured money into local governments’ coffers and signaled future development plans, a key driver of the economy.

The downturn began in 2021, after Beijing tightened credit on the sector. With home sales falling and real-estate developers going bankrupt, a Chinese think tank called Beike Research Institute released a report in 2022 that found the average housing vacancy rate among 28 Chinese cities was higher than the average in the U.S. and other places—a sign of oversupply.

The report drew attention because China doesn’t release an official vacancy rate, and property analysts were trying to figure out how badly developers had overbuilt. A few days later, Beike retracted the report and apologized, saying that some of the data had errors. Analysts said they believed the group pulled the data under government pressure.

Official data went away, too.

Figures show the value of land sales plummeted 48% in 2022—a big problem for heavily indebted local governments, which suddenly lacked funds to pay salaries or carry on with infrastructure projects. That data disappeared at the start of 2023.

In this case, there are still private data providers that gather individual land transactions at the local level from public records.

By mid-2023, much of the talk locally revolved around the dismal job market for young people. Many of the students finishing college didn’t have job offers, and viral social-media posts showed them dressed in caps and gowns splayed out motionless on the ground, interpreted by many as a form of silent protest.

Around that time, the official youth unemployment rate hit a record 21.3%. Zhang Dandan, a Peking University economist, made headlines saying she thought China’s true youth unemployment rate might be as high as 46.5%.

In August 2023, authorities announced they would stop releasing the youth unemployment rate, saying they needed to revisit how they calculated the figures.

Five months later, Beijing began releasing a new data series. The real youth jobless rate, it said, was 14.9%.

Officials said the new data series excluded nearly 62 million people who were studying full-time in universities, and so shouldn’t be counted as jobless. But that didn’t make sense to economists. Statistics typically count anyone actively looking for a job as unemployed, including full-time students.

Investor flight
In April 2024, China’s stock market was teetering as economic worries deepened. Foreign investors dumped more than $2 billion of Chinese stocks over a two-week span, spooking domestic individual investors.

China’s two major exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen abruptly announced that they would stop publishing real-time data on inflows and outflows of foreign investors. The Shanghai Stock Exchange said in a statement that it was aligning its practices with other international markets, which don’t disclose real-time trading data of specific groups of investors.

After authorities stopped publishing the real-time data in mid-May, the CSI 300 benchmark index continued its decline for four consecutive months, until authorities announced a blitz of measures to support the country’s weakening economy in September.

Some data are still publicly available but harder to get. Beijing passed a law in 2021 that caused data providers to make certain information—such as corporate registry data and satellite images—accessible only in mainland China.

Chinese data provider Wind Information started to limit international users’ access to certain data sets, such as online retail shopping figures and land-auction records, in early 2023. That led one economist at a foreign bank in Hong Kong to start making regular weekend trips to the neighboring mainland city of Shenzhen to download data, the economist told the Journal.

Also gone in recent years: official figures on Chinese toll road operators’ year-end debt balances and the number of new stock-market investors.

China stopped publishing national cremation data after it ended its controversial zero-Covid policy to contain the virus in late 2022—a move some analysts had estimated could lead to between 1.3 million and 2.1 million deaths. The government also censored discussions about the impact of the virus on social media.

The country’s low fertility rate has become a major economic liability—and some data pointing to it is gone, too. In the mid-2000s, an economist named Yi Fuxian questioned the accuracy of China’s population data and argued that tuberculosis vaccinations were a better measure of population growth because every newborn in China is required to be vaccinated.

In 2020, 5.4 million such vaccines were administered, according to data compiled by the private Chinese think tank Forward Business and Intelligence. Chinese authorities said the country recorded 12.1 million births that year.

A year later, the National Institutes for Food and Drug Control discontinued the weekly data release of tuberculosis vaccines administered, along with other vaccine data.

Some information that has disappeared defies explanation. Data providing estimates of the size of elementary school toilets stopped being released in 2022, then resumed publication in February. Official soy sauce production data stopped appearing in May 2021, and hasn’t returned.

WSJ : Teenage Terrorists Are a Growing Threat to Europe’s Security

Teenage Terrorists Are a Growing Threat to Europe’s Security
Law enforcers are overwhelmed and warn that a new generation of extremists is being radicalized online

Key Points
  • European authorities are struggling to counter the growing threat of terrorism committed by increasingly younger individuals.
  • Extremist propaganda, social-media influence and events like the Gaza war are factors in the radicalization of European teens.
  • Radicalization is happening faster online, with young extremists finding community and inspiration for attacks.

BRUSSELS—Terrorists in Europe are getting younger, and authorities are struggling to find them.

In recent months, dozens of adolescents as young as 14 have been arrested across Europe for allegedly plotting attacks against music venues, shopping centers and sites of worship.

A 14-year-old girl from Montenegro was arrested in Austria in May last year for allegedly plotting an attack on “nonbelievers.” The police seized an ax, a knife and Islamic State propaganda from her house. Another 14-year-old was arrested in February for plotting to attack a train station, Austrian authorities said.

Three Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna were canceled last year after three suspects ages 17 to 19 were arrested for conspiring on what the Central Intelligence Agency called a “well-developed” plot that could have killed hundreds.

Young people are increasingly drawn into online communities that propagate extremist views, conspiracy theories and violence. While the U.S. has long had a problem with school shooters, the growing teenage threat to Europe comes primarily from Islamists.

Behind the teen extremism crisis lies a combination of factors: an unprecedented spread of extremist propaganda accelerated partly by artificial intelligence; the powerful hold on youths by social media such as TikTok with increasingly sophisticated means of retaining user attention; and events such as the Gaza war, which has become a defining, and painful, political moment for a generation gaining political awareness.

Teenagers made up two-thirds of the 60 Islamic extremists who were arrested on terrorism charges across Europe in the first eight months following the start of the Gaza war in October 2023, according to Peter Neumann, professor of security studies at King’s College London, who researched that period for a book.

Europe’s young far-right is also a growing threat. Belgian police in January arrested a 14-year-old boy with neo-Nazi views on suspicion of planning an attack on a mosque.

One-third of Belgian terrorism cases from 2022 to 2024 involved minors. In Britain, nearly one in five terror suspects are children. Terrorism arrests declined across all age groups in the U.K. during the pandemic, with one exception: children.

“What is new is the number of youths that are directly involved in plotting violent attacks, and that includes very young individuals,” said Thomas Renard, director of the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism in The Hague.

Almost all young extremists are radicalized online, experts say, making it harder for authorities to spot them.

In the past five years, 93% of fatal terrorist attacks in the West were perpetrated by lone-wolf actors, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace, a think tank. The internet has accelerated radicalization. According to the institute’s Global Terrorism Index, it took a person on average 16 months to radicalize in 2002. In 2015, the period had shortened by 40%. Today, it may take just a few weeks.

Online, ideology is fluid, and extremist views that share central tenets, such as misogyny and totalitarianism, often blend, experts say. Young white supremacists admire the doctrine of Islamic State. Young jihadists borrow the language and aesthetics of the far-right. Rather than issue orders, terror groups flood social media with propaganda that gives young people an ideological framework and inspiration to carry out attacks, experts say.

A Gen Z extremist
An example of the kind of extremist that European authorities are worried about is currently on trial in Belgium.

For Abdul Kerim Gadaev, a 19-year-old Chechen refugee, his father’s deportation to Russia from France four years ago is still a source of anger. Following the deportation, Gadaev became alienated at school. Online, he aired his desire to replicate the 2015 Bataclan attack in Paris that killed 90: “A Bataclan 2.0,” a Belgian public prosecutor alleged last month in court.

Belgian police last year arrested Gadaev and three other suspects ages 15 to 17. On Gadaev’s phone, investigators found evidence that he researched the Bataclan attack, the 2015 attack on the Charlie Hebdo offices in Paris, and Abdoullakh Anzorov, the 18-year-old Chechen refugee who in 2020 decapitated a French secondary school teacher. They also found a photo of the teacher’s severed head.

As he was questioned in court last month about posting hateful content on social media, Gadaev grew fidgety. Sporting a wispy full beard without a mustache, he nervously scratched his wrist behind his back and pulled his sleeves over his hands. “I didn’t think I was doing anything wrong,” he said.

The radicalization of minors contributes to a growing terrorism threat facing the West. The number of completed, failed and foiled terrorist attacks in the European Union quadrupled from 2022 to 2023—to 120 incidents—according to the bloc’s law-enforcement agency, Europol.

While many attacks are prevented, terrorism-related deaths in the West rose by 61% from 2023 to 2024, and the number of successful attacks roughly doubled to 67 over the same period, according to the Global Terrorism Index.

U.S. government agencies don’t provide data on the age of suspected terrorists, but the trends in right-wing radicalization in the U.S. are similar, experts say.

“Whereas Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan were the main exporters of jihadi ideology, the U.S. has become one of the main exporters of far-right ideology,” said Renard, the director of the Hague-based think tank.

“The online environment provides ample opportunities for terrorists…to connect to young people in seemingly innocuous social media applications and gaming platforms,” an FBI spokesperson said.

Following no leader
With only a superficial understanding of ideology, most young extremists initially find an attraction to violent narratives online, driven by individual grievances and vulnerabilities, such as psychological distress, loneliness and marginalization, experts say. Online, they find a community around collective crises and traumatic events, such as fear of migration or the war in Gaza, which they connect to their personal struggle.

“People associate themselves with the suffering. And they want to do something about it,” said Kevin Volon, spokesperson for Belgium’s Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis, a governmental center that analyzes extremist threats. Groups of young radicals usually organize online without a formal leader or religious authority. “The extremist landscape is really decentralized,” Volon said.

In Chaudfontaine, a small Belgian municipality where Gadaev settled with his stepmother after his father’s deportation, the teen fell behind in school. He found an online community around sports and religion, particularly on TikTok, where his circles became increasingly political.

“I was on my phone 24/7,” he said.

In February last year, he joined an “operational” channel on the encrypted Signal messaging app where members started plotting an attack, according to the prosecutor. Some as young as 13, they discussed how to acquire weapons and shared photos of the target, the Botanique, a concert hall in central Brussels. Gadaev said he was willing to participate as long as the attack was well prepared.

In March 2024, Belgian federal police arrested Gadaev and three others, all minors, across Belgium. French police also arrested three minors in connection with the case. The six underage suspects are handled by the two countries’ juvenile systems, away from the public eye. The Belgian prosecutor is asking for a seven-year sentence for Gadaev.

Gadaev’s defense attorneys said his rhetoric on social media was “performative.” The argument speaks to the challenge facing Western intelligence agencies: how to discern when hateful speech may tip into action.

“We have been saying for some time that the complexity of our investigative casework is like never before, the breadth and depth of what we are dealing with is extraordinary,” said Vicki Evans, the U.K.’s senior counterterrorism policing coordinator. She called on tech companies to help tackle the problem.

Social-media algorithms create a pull effect on young people by suggesting increasingly violent content and creating digital rabbit holes. Artificial intelligence has exacerbated the problem, said Julia Ebner, an expert in online radicalization at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue think tank and the University of Oxford.

“AI generated videos and images tap in to very deep emotions and into human nature,” she said. “AI and the algorithms are partly doing that job of a charismatic recruiter, just a hundred times better.”

FT : Donald Trump says he will impose 100% tariff on movies made abroad

Donald Trump says he will impose 100% tariff on movies made abroad
US president expands trade war to film industry in pledge to prevent ‘death of Hollywood’

Donald Trump has said he will slap a 100 per cent tariff on all films produced abroad, expanding his trade war to the cinema industry in order to thwart what he described as the “very fast death” of Hollywood.

The US president made the announcement on his Truth Social platform on Sunday night as he returned to Washington from a weekend at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, though he did not offer further details.

“The Movie Industry in America is DYING a very fast death. Other Countries are offering all sorts of incentives to draw our filmmakers and studios away from the United States. Hollywood, and many other areas within the U.S.A., are being devastated,” he wrote.

Los Angeles has watched other US states, as well as countries such as Canada and the UK, peel away movie production from California in recent years.

Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor of California, has proposed a tax incentive scheme to support film production in the state, but Trump is looking at tariffs instead to stymie international competition.

Trump added that he would be authorising the commerce department and US trade representative “to immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% Tariff on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands”.

He concluded: “WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!”

While Trump has paused sweeping tariffs that he had proposed last month on a wide range of imports until July — giving his officials time to try to negotiate trade deals with countries around the world — he has maintained levies affecting specific industries such as cars and pharmaceuticals. It was unclear how levies would be applied to films.

The Motion Picture Association declined to comment. 

Trump’s plan to apply tariffs to foreign films came amid a burst of social media posts in which the US president also called for a reopening of the notorious Alcatraz prison, which has been closed for more than 60 years.

The US president said Alcatraz, which is on an island off the coast of San Francisco, needed to be “substantially enlarged and rebuilt” to house “America’s most ruthless and violent Offenders”.

“The reopening of ALCATRAZ will serve as a symbol of Law, Order, and JUSTICE,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The statement drew a fast rebuke from Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the House and Democratic representative from California.

In a post on X, Pelosi said that the president’s proposal was “not a serious one”.

“Alcatraz closed as a federal penitentiary more than sixty years ago. It is now a very popular national park and major tourist attraction,” she added.

FT : Vatican pact with Beijing weighs on papal frontrunner

Vatican pact with Beijing weighs on papal frontrunner
Cardinal Pietro Parolin was the architect of a deal with China that could scupper his chances to succeed Pope Francis

One country, far from Rome, is emerging as a potentially significant factor in deciding the outcome of this week’s papal conclave: China.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the late Pope Francis’s right-hand man for more than a decade, has emerged among bookmakers as one of the early favourites to succeed his former boss.

But Parolin’s signature achievement while running the Vatican — a 2018 deal between the Holy See and the Chinese Communist party — now looms large over his prospects.

The 70-year-old Italian prelate engineered the deal which was intended to resolve a decades-long stand off, and prevent a schism between underground churches in China loyal to the pope and an official church that obeyed Beijing.

His compromise, negotiated over years, gave Beijing a formal say in the appointment of Catholic bishops in China. It was a step critics such as Hong Kong’s cardinal Joseph Zen see as a grave error of judgment that insulted the sacrifices made by China’s Catholics.

“Generations of Chinese Catholics have been martyred for their refusal to accept Communist control of the Catholic church,” said John Allen Jr, editor of Crux, a Catholic news website. “Others have been imprisoned, tortured, harassed and persecuted . . . and some of them regard this deal as a betrayal of their suffering.”  

Atheist Chinese Communist apparatchiks, Allen added, should be “the last people in the world that you would want to be poking their nose in the church’s tent”.

Despite this, Vatican watchers consider the mild-mannered Parolin — a veteran Vatican diplomat before Francis chose him to run the Holy See — as one of the leading figures in the papal succession contest. Still, he may struggle to eventually secure the two-thirds majority of the 133 votes required to secure the papacy.

“He is a very strong candidate — the strongest right now,” said Iacopo Scaramuzzi, author of several books on Catholic church politics. “Cardinal Parolin is a mediator — both because of his role, and because of his character.”

While Parolin led bookmakers’ listings for weeks since Francis’s death, the odds have since moved in favour of Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines, putting the two cardinals pretty much neck and neck.

Born in northern Italy, Parolin entered seminary at age 14; studied canon law in Rome, then in 1986, began his diplomatic career for the Holy See with postings to Nigeria and Mexico.

He returned to the Vatican in 1993 to manage relations with various European countries. A decade later, he was appointed under secretary of state for states, responsible for directing the Holy See’s fraught relations with countries like Vietnam, North Korea, Israel and China. 

Parolin was mentored by an older generation of experienced Vatican diplomats, steeped in the subtle art of seeking to influence authoritarian regimes without alienating them.

“They created a doctrine of how to deal with dictators: a doctrine that says you have to talk with everyone, and use every possible opening — every possible opportunity — that you have to deal even with the devil,” said Massimo Faggioli, an expert on the Catholic church at Villanova University.

Parolin was posted as papal nuncio to Venezuela in 2009. When Francis was elected pope in 2013, Parolin was made secretary of state — the Holy See’s de facto prime minister — putting him at the nerve centre of the church, and the late pope’s efforts to reform it.

Through his career, China, whose Catholic faithful are currently estimated at between 6mn and 12mn, was a recurring concern. Many Chinese Catholics went underground during the bloody years of Maoist rule and the Cultural Revolution. 

By the time religious practice was tolerated again in the 1980s, Chinese Catholics were split between “underground” churches loyal to the Vatican, and officially recognised churches with bishops appointed by the state’s Catholic Patriotic Association.  

Historian Agostino Giovagnoli said Francis, like his predecessors John Paul II and Benedict, all sought rapprochement with Beijing to heal this divide, leading to decades of intermittent negotiations, mostly carried out by Parolin himself.

“There has been a continuity among those three popes in the approach towards China,” he said. “Parolin fulfilled his duty and obeyed their will.” 

“Catholic believers were in conflict; the community was divided,” he said. “Now they can celebrate mass together; the faithful are not in conflict among themselves, share the rites. The deal was the lesser of two evils.”

Not all agree. Lucia Cheung, research assistant at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Centre for Catholic Studies, said critics believed the deal with Beijing was a “trap for the Holy See”.

“Beijing would get whoever they want as the bishops, not really respecting the will of the Church and the required virtues for such a position,” she added. 

Francesco Sisci, an expert on the Vatican’s relations with China, said Beijing had also dragged its feet on the appointment process, leaving many dioceses without agreed bishops and deeply disappointing the Holy See. “It was too much investment for too little result,” Sisci said.

One of the deal’s fiercest critics Zen, who was arrested in Hong Kong in 2022 for his support for the city’s pro-democracy protests, has travelled to Rome since Francis’s death.

At 93 he is too old to vote in the conclave but he is participating in the preliminary debates on the church’s future. Analysts believe he may advocate for an uncompromising pope, willing to take a stand against autocratic leaders.

The Vatican’s deal with China “is most important diplomatic achievement of Pope Francis’s pontificate and Parolin is clearly at the centre of that. He owns it”, said Faggioli.

“Some people think it’s been a very good thing for the church. But some see it as a sign of weakness and have expectations of the church to take a less diplomatic, more prophetic stance.”

FT : Private equity’s best days are over, says Egyptian billionaire Nassef Sawir

Private equity’s best days are over, says Egyptian billionaire Nassef Sawiris
Buyout firms’ difficulties in securing exits and distributing cash to investors are leading to mounting frustration

The private equity industry is past its peak and faces a massive challenge in selling off trillions of dollars in assets, according to Egyptian industrialist and billionaire investor Nassef Sawiris.

Sawiris, who has invested parts of his fortune in funds at multiple buyout firms, said he and others who back private equity funds were frustrated with the lack of distributions in recent years. Firms have struggled to exit investments amid a post-pandemic slowdown in dealmaking and initial public offerings.

“Private equity has seen its best days . . . They can’t exit. Exits are so tough,” Sawiris told the Financial Times. 

“[Investors] are so frustrated. They are telling them [buyout firms]: ‘I haven’t seen any returns, you haven’t returned any cash to me in the last five, six years’.”

Sawiris took particular aim at the use of “continuation funds” to recycle capital — a tactic whereby private equity groups, instead of selling an asset to another owner or publicly listing it, move the asset into a new fund where they still maintain control.

“Continuation funds is the biggest scam ever because you say ‘I cannot sell the business, I’m going to lever it again’,” Sawiris said.

Continuation vehicles have grown increasingly popular in recent years, surging about 50 per cent to hit a record $76bn last year, according to a report from investment bank Houlihan Lokey.

The comments come as Sawiris has been overseeing the break-up of his Dutch-listed chemicals and fertiliser empire OCI.

The group in September agreed its fourth major disposal, bringing gross proceeds from its asset sales to $11.6bn from deals that were all struck with trade buyers rather than buyout shops. It has now sold off most of its assets, including its global methanol business, fertiliser holdings and a low-carbon ammonia project in Texas.

OCI has used these sales to return cash to shareholders. Including a payment to be made later this week, it has distributed $6.4bn in the past four years, with a further payout of up to $1bn expected after it closes the sale of its methanol business.

Sawiris said the company was “very lucky with the timing” of the disposals given the market turmoil that has disrupted dealmaking, the turn against investing in more sustainable assets, and a decline in gas prices.

Sawiris told the FT in an interview last year that OCI could be turned into a cash-shell company that pursues acquisitions in different industries.

He said he was approached about buying dozens of companies with the proceeds from his asset sales.

Many of them were owned by private equity groups hoping for an exit, Sawiris said, adding that he did not find a single one of them to be an attractive target for a deal.

“A year ago we looked at 70 different companies that would have wanted to be merged with OCI because they were levered, and get a listing and all that . . . all private equity that can’t get an exit,” he said. “We said ‘like, why are we are there to solve somebody else’s problem’?”

He also criticised private equity managers’ priorities, saying they were far more focused on raising capital for their investment vehicles than their portfolio companies’ operational performance.

“They’re spending 90 per cent of their time fundraising and 10 per cent managing the businesses,” he said. “They attend board meetings, have a board dinner and there’s a reason why they didn’t execute the plan.”

After decades of expansion, the private equity industry’s assets under management shrank last year for the first time since the consultancy Bain & Co began tracking industry assets in 2005. 

The industry’s assets in June 2024 were down just 2 per cent on a year earlier to $4.7tn, buyout groups have faced further challenges as the market volatility unleashed by US tariffs slowed dealmaking. 

Investment groups have faced trouble selling assets after buying them at high valuations in recent years, complicating their fundraising efforts.

Amid the broader challenges facing the private equity industry, Sawiris said the groups best positioned to succeed were those that had grown big enough as financial institutions such as Blackstone to challenge the major lending banks. 

“The only guys that have a future are the guys that found a niche to be a competitor to JPMorgan and Bank of America.”