(BFW) EU Autos’ Consensus Too High, Prefer VW vs Suppliers, Exane Says


EU Autos’ Consensus Too High, Prefer VW vs Suppliers, Exane Says
2014-09-02 06:30:36.248 GMT


By Brian Lysaght
Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- European autos’ 2015 growth
expectations look too high, best to buy selectively on weakness,
says Exane BNP Paribas in note dated yday.
* 2015 sector EPS ests. cut ~10%, global vehicle demand growth
forecast lowered to 3.5% vs previous 5.5%; Europe, China
remain “sweet spots”
* Prefer automakers to suppliers, where valuations are high
* VW raised to outperform from neutral; see solid earnings,
lack of bad news, attractive valuation
* Valeo cut to underperform from neutral; Continental and
Faurecia both cut to neutral from outperform: Exane BNP
* See yday: EU Autos Underperform in Aug.; Rheinmetall, Nokian
Renkaat Slide

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WSJ : Heady U.S. IPO Market Rolls Into Autumn

A busy initial-public-offering market is warming up for autumn.

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. plans this month to begin a marketing roadshow for what could be the largest IPO ever, potentially raising more than $20 billion. New York office landlord Paramount Group Inc. filed preliminary paperwork last week for what may be the largest-ever debut by a real-estate investment trust. Online-storage startup Box Inc. and consumer-credit upstart LendingClub Corp. also are expected to price offerings in coming months.

The anticipated flood would cap off the busiest period for new U.S. share listings in decades. Companies this year have raised $46.4 billion, the most in the first eight months of any year since 2000, according to data provider Dealogic.

"We still have a ton in the hopper, and I think people are optimistic about being able to execute deals after Labor Day," said Marc Jaffe, co-chair of the global capital-markets practice at law firm Latham & Watkins LLP.

U.S. stocks' climb to record highs is affording companies an opportunity to sell shares at attractive valuations. Money managers say many IPOs look like good bets. Some feature rapid expansion in profit or sales and offer new ways to bet on trends like the emergence of cloud-based business software or increased U.S. energy production thanks to the shale-drilling boom.

"If you have a good growth opportunity, investors are there," said Scott McNeill, chief financial officer of Dallas-based oil driller RSP Permian Inc. RSPP +2.66%

The company and its early investors sold a combined $744 million worth of stock in a January IPO and a "follow-on" stock offering last month. RSP Permian is looking to finance West Texas oil wells without taking on too much debt.

IPOs further benefit from a perception among many investors that other assets, including bonds of all types, are fully valued following sharp rallies.

"With interest rates low and with good corporate-earnings growth and nowhere else to invest, risk appetite is alive and well," said Matt Litfin, who helps oversee $4.6 billion as a portfolio manager at William Blair Funds.

To be sure, these deals carry their share of risk. Companies often go public at an early stage, when their sales and profit outlooks are particularly unclear.

This year, IPOs are attracting a higher price tag relative to their sales than in the past. In 2014, companies have fetched a median IPO price 8.2 times their latest year's sales, versus a median price-to-sales ratio of 3.6 in the previous 12 years, according to data compiled by University of Florida professor Jay Ritter, who researches IPOs.

That is in part because this year has featured a disproportionate share of IPOs by biotechnology companies, which often go public without meaningful revenue. Excluding biotech firms, this year's IPOs have fetched a median price-to-sales ratio of 4.2 times.

Some market watchers say the IPO boom has thinned the ranks of attractive companies, particularly in hot sectors such as technology.

"Maybe a year and a half ago, I had eight to 10 [prospective IPOs] that I was heavily anticipating. Now I only have three or four," said Tony Ursillo, technology equity analyst and portfolio manager at fund firm Loomis, Sayles & Co., which oversees $221 billion.

Since IPO activity accelerated last year, some onetime darlings have fallen from grace. Advertising-technology provider Rocket Fuel Inc. FUEL +3.69% 's stock rallied as much as 148% in the months after its September 2013 IPO, but on Friday the shares closed 44% below their IPO offer price.

Market participants said the rally in these so-called momentum stocks was driven by short-term-oriented bets that their share-price gains alone would attract further buying. Many of these stocks sold off sharply this March and April.

Fund managers stress that companies going public now generally are more solid than in the late 1990s and early 2000, when a host of dot-com companies, with little more than a marketing plan and a catchy name, went public.

"One thing we've seen this year is a good diversity across the business, and we'd expect that to continue," said Jeffrey Bunzel, head of equity capital markets for the Americas at Deutsche Bank AG.

The health-care sector, which has accounted for the largest share of IPO activity of any industry in the past year, also represents the biggest share of the public backlog, according to Dealogic.

Also on the horizon is a slate of big energy deals, driven by surging production on U.S. soil. For one, Royal Dutch Shell RDSA.LN +0.62% PLC plans to split off some oil-pipeline assets into a type of high-dividend-paying company called a master limited partnership, following similar moves by Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPC +0.25% and Valero Energy Corp. VLO -0.04% in recent years.

Phillips 66 PSX +0.47% Partners LP, an MLP spun out of refiner Phillips 66 last year, has seen its shares rally 222% since its July 2013 IPO. Those were among the biggest share gains among companies that went public in the U.S. last year.

"Treasury yields are low, and people still need income," said Scott Moore, manager of the $30 million Buffalo Dividend Focus fund.

Mr. Moore said participating in IPOs has bolstered his fund's performance this year. He declined to name specific stocks, but his fund's holdings earlier this year included Midcoast Energy Partners MEP +3.54% LP and EQT Midstream Partners EQM +0.37% LP, two MLPs that have seen big share-price gains, according to Morningstar.

Corrections & Amplifications

In 2014, companies have fetched a median IPO price 8.2 times their latest year's sales, versus a median price-to-sales ratio of 3.6 in the previous 12 years, according to data compiled by University of Florida professor Jay Ritter. His data also showed that excluding biotech firms, this year's IPOs have fetched a median price-to-sales ratio of 4.2 times. A previous version of this article misstated that the ratios were averages, not medians.

>>> What to look at today - 02/09/2014

US Market was closed for Labour Day. Alibaba IPO to start this week.
Japan July wages increased 2.6%, the fastest pace in more than 17 years in July, quelling expectations of a slowdown, USD/JPY traded stronger by over 45 pips, above ¥104.80 and marks the highest level in 7 months. The strengthening followed press reports that Japan Prime Minister Abe may offer a cabinet position to LDP Deputy Policy Chief Shiozaki, who has been an outspoken proponent of GPIF pension reform...Nikkei +1.51% Hang Seng -0.19% Shanghai +0.66%

Eur$ 1.3122 S&P +0.10% EuroStoxx +0.30% FTSE+0.18% DAX +0.29% SMI +0.15%

Macro
- Putin Tells Barroso He Could ‘Take Kiev in 2 Weeks’: Repubblica {NSN NB97F96KLVRB <go>}
- Hong Kong-Shanghai Valuation Gap Narrows to Least Since May 21
- Mobius Worried by HK Debate on Share Classes, Voting Rights: WSJ
- Stay in European Equities; More QE May Provide Boost: Barclays {NSN NB9F1Q6K50XY<Go>}

Keep an eye on :
- AF FP : Air France FY Domestic Mid-Haul Losses to Halve Vs 2012: Figaro
- BAYN GY : Bayer: Xarelto Effective in AF Patients Undergoing Cardioversion
- CSGN VX : Credit Suisse/Julius Baer Deal Would Face Hurdles, Barclays Says {NSN NB9FAI6JTSEL<Go>}
- CRH LN : Nokia May See Potential Demand of 126.5m Shrs, CRH Supply of 25m -SX5E -Changes {NSN NB8CQ26JIJUU<Go>}
- EI FP : Luxottica Explored Essilor Deal But Didn’t Pursue: Reuters
- HAV FP : Havas Agrees to Lease 165,000 Square Foot Office in London
- ILD FP : Iliad CFO says new partners may aid T-Mobile US bid - Boersen-Zeitung, Financial Times
- LUX IM : Luxottica Explored Essilor Deal But Didn’t Pursue: Reuters
- EGL PL : Portugal’s Parpublica Said to Back Mota-Engil’s Offer for EGF
- NOK1V FH : Nokia May See Potential Demand of 126.5m Shrs, CRH Supply of 25m -SX5E {NSN NB8CQ26JIJUU<Go>}
- NOVN VX : Novartis to Unveil Data From 3 Trials at Respiratory Congress
- OR FP : L'Oreal Replaces Henkel on Europe Conviction List: Raymond James
- PSM GY : ProSiebenSat.1 Offers Europe Ad Budget to Startup Contest Winner
- TEF SM : Telefonica’s Brazil Stock Sale Means More Room for Acquisitions
- TEF SM : Telefonica Offers Vivendi Alliance on Content, Confidencial Says
- TEN IM : Tenaris Raised to Neutral vs Sell at UBS on Improving Outlook {NSN NB9EG26TTDS1<Go>}
- TSCO LN : Wal-Mart tipped as potential acquirer of Tesco -Daily Mail
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia Extends Deadline for Fintech Deal
- VIV FP : Canal+ Loses European Rugby Cup to beIN Sports: L’Equipe
- VIV F: Telefonica Offers Vivendi Alliance on Content, Confidencial Says {NSN NB9EGD6TTDSG<Go>}
- VIV FP : GVT/Telefonica expected to have minimal conditions; Vivendi could take up Telecom Italia stake
- ZAG AV : Zumtobel 1Q Net Income Drops 15%; Restructuring Charges Seen

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 02/09/2014

>>> Up
*BANCO POPULAR RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*GETINGE RAISED TO BUY AT JEFFERIES
*JOHNSTON PRESS RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT NUMIS
*LONMIN RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE
*LVMH RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT RENAISSANCE CAPITAL
*PREZZO RAISED TO ADD VS HOLD AT NUMIS
*SPEEDY HIRE RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT LIBERUM
*STATOIL RAISED TO BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*TENARIS RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS
*TREVI RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT MEDIOBANCA
*VALLOUREC RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*VW RAISED TO OUTPERFORM FROM NEUTRAL AT EXANE

>>> Down
*CONTINENTAL CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM OUTPERFORM AT EXANEz
*FAURECIA CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM OUTPERFORM AT EXANE
*GRAFTON CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY AT CITI
*LUXOTTICA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT BOFAML
*MICHAEL PAGE CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT LIBERUM
*NOBEL BIOCARE CUT TO MARKET PERFORM VS OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*NORDEA CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*PKO BANK POLSKI CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCGEN
*SMITH & NEPHEW CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT JEFFERIES
*STRAUMANN CUT TO MARKET PERFORM VS OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*VALEO CUT TO UNDERPERFORM FROM NEUTRAL AT EXANE

>>> PT changes
*Amplifon PT Raised to EU4.05 at BofAML; Kept at Underperform

>>> Initiation
*APPLUS RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES, PT EU15
*LAVENDON RATED NEW HOLD AT LIBERUM; PT 225P
*PIXIUM VISION RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES
*SORIN RESUMED HOLD AT JEFFERIES, PT EU2.18

>>> Call
>> Stock
*L’OREAL ADDED TO EUROPEAN CONVICTION LIST AT RAYMOND JAMES
* Travis Perkins, Wolseley Preferred Builders Merchants, Citi Says

WSJ : Better French Macron-Economics

Better French Macron-Economics
The new Economy Minister speaks up for the jobless.

Maybe miracles do happen. A member of Francois Hollande's new cabinet, barely two days into the job, took on one of the centerpieces of the country's dysfunctional economic policy: the notorious 35-hour work week.

It's time to rethink labor policy, newly installed Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Le Point magazine last week. After discussing his desire to simplify measures that force small firms to offer progressively more expensive benefits the more employees they hire, he suggests that the government also could "allow enterprises and branches, with a majority agreement [with workers], to waive the rules on working hours and compensation."

Congratulations to Mr. Macron for starting in the right place. The 35-hour work week, which forces employers to pay overtime or offer compensatory vacation time if employees exceed the limit, was introduced in 2000 as a jobs-creation measure. The Socialist government of the day argued that employers would have to hire more people to produce the same level of output if each worker worked less. Instead it has driven up French labor costs and deterred job-creating investment.


Unions are furious about Mr. Macron's trial balloon, and President Hollande's skittishness about challenges from the far left of his Socialist Party may deter him from following through. Still, Mr. Macron's clear thinking on this and other issues makes for a refreshing change from predecessor Arnaud Montebourg, whose main economic idea was to chase away foreign investors.

Meanwhile, although Mr. Macron's thoughts on the work week have attracted the most attention, elsewhere in the interview he offered a broader principle that could apply to the Obama Administration as much as France:

"It's a matter of getting out of the trap where the accumulation of rights granted to workers transforms into handicaps for those who don't have jobs, especially young people and those from overseas. . . . We forget that historically the law served to protect the rights of the most vulnerable, but today the superabundance of laws can instead handicap the most vulnerable."

WSJ : Better French Macron-Economics

Better French Macron-Economics
The new Economy Minister speaks up for the jobless.

Maybe miracles do happen. A member of Francois Hollande's new cabinet, barely two days into the job, took on one of the centerpieces of the country's dysfunctional economic policy: the notorious 35-hour work week.

It's time to rethink labor policy, newly installed Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Le Point magazine last week. After discussing his desire to simplify measures that force small firms to offer progressively more expensive benefits the more employees they hire, he suggests that the government also could "allow enterprises and branches, with a majority agreement [with workers], to waive the rules on working hours and compensation."

Congratulations to Mr. Macron for starting in the right place. The 35-hour work week, which forces employers to pay overtime or offer compensatory vacation time if employees exceed the limit, was introduced in 2000 as a jobs-creation measure. The Socialist government of the day argued that employers would have to hire more people to produce the same level of output if each worker worked less. Instead it has driven up French labor costs and deterred job-creating investment.

Enlarge Image

French Economy minister Emmanuel Macron Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Unions are furious about Mr. Macron's trial balloon, and President Hollande's skittishness about challenges from the far left of his Socialist Party may deter him from following through. Still, Mr. Macron's clear thinking on this and other issues makes for a refreshing change from predecessor Arnaud Montebourg, whose main economic idea was to chase away foreign investors.

Meanwhile, although Mr. Macron's thoughts on the work week have attracted the most attention, elsewhere in the interview he offered a broader principle that could apply to the Obama Administration as much as France:

"It's a matter of getting out of the trap where the accumulation of rights granted to workers transforms into handicaps for those who don't have jobs, especially young people and those from overseas. . . . We forget that historically the law served to protect the rights of the most vulnerable, but today the superabundance of laws can instead handicap the most vulnerable."

FT : QE best way to mend Europe financial fragmentation

Bond purchases by ECB would eliminate yield differences

Some commentators have argued that quantitative easing would be less effective in Europe than in the US, or indeed that it would be a mistake for the European Central Bank to embark on QE.
Advocates argue that eurozone monetary conditions remain too tight, reflected in weak growth and significantly below-target inflation outcomes, and, in turn, that the ECB has no choice but to launch QE.

Neither side has made a convincing case as to why QE would, or would not, be effective, and under what conditions it would work best.
Quantitative easing takes effect through three channels: lowering bond term premiums; via portfolio balance, altering the risk/return trade-off for investors and firms; and demonstrating the commitment of policy makers to their statutory mandate of price stability.
In contrast to conventional wisdom, there is little difference between the channels of conventional and unconventional policy. The impact of QE is so great because of the context: mired in a debt-deflationary disequilibrium, unconventional monetary policy has the power to stimulate aggregate demand, allowing economic space for structural reform to work.
Powerful effects
The power of accommodative monetary policy is its ability to attenuate potential asset price losses. More than simply raising bond prices, QE lowers volatility and shifts correlations as term premiums decline, with less risk of loss for both bond and equity investors.
QE benefits companies immediately through lower refinancing costs. Later, as groups optimise liabilities through debt-to-equity swaps or increased dividends, equity valuations rise. Because of the more benign macro backdrop, companies are not penalised for increasing leverage.
For banks, QE has more immediate impact than the ECB’s refinancing operations, boosting bank solvency through capital gains on assets. In that sense, QE follows logically as a complement to the ECB’s comprehensive balance sheet assessment as a means to restore lending to the real economy.
Most importantly, bond purchases lend credibility to commitment – action rather than abrogation of the legal mandate for price stability. Inflation expectations should, accordingly, be better anchored.
The case for QE in Europe is particularly powerful. While the outright monetary transactions programme ensures markets can no longer undermine monetary union, the ECB has yet to respond appropriately to the zero lower bound on interest rates as inflation drops below the bank’s 2 per cent target.
Sovereign bond yields may have fallen to all-time lows in the core and the periphery alike, but for large swaths of the eurozone, real interest rates remain inappropriately high given low levels of inflation.
Beyond the normal power of QE on volatility and term premia, the additional potency within the European context is in eliminating financial fragmentation. In contrast to the US, where there is only one risk-free rate, in the euro area, there are as many risk free rates as there are sovereigns.
Inferior solution
An ECB programme to buy sovereign bonds would largely eliminate nominal yield differentiation between sovereigns, similar to the early years of the ECB’s repurchase operations, when all eligible sovereign debt was assigned to the same high liquidity category.
In contrast, targeted long-term refinancing operations, while generously priced, are an inferior solution to financial fragmentation. Since banks in Europe hold their respective sovereign’s debt as the primary form of liquid collateral, differentiated haircuts make funding more expensive for periphery banks relative to core banks.
Eliminating differentiated funding costs is central to the success of additional monetary policy actions given that market-based private sector financing is still in its infancy in Europe.
Just as the market is right to be impatient for monetary policy to overcome the zero lower bound, so is the ECB correct in its impatience with governments for failing to act in concert. Many of those who call for QE do so because they are unwilling or unable to deliver the necessary reforms needed to optimise QE.
Similarly, opposition to QE is largely on political rather than economic grounds, since the subsidy element to ECB sovereign bond purchases amounts to fiscal risk sharing. Scope for compromise is clear.
With Europe facing an existential threat from excessive debt and demographics, the impact of QE without complementary policies to improve potential growth will be fleeting. It is therefore up to European leaders to create the preconditions. The euro summit planned for October 7 is an appropriate event, none too early.

>>> GVT/Telefonica expected to have minimal conditions; Vivendi could take up Te

GVT/Telefonica expected to have minimal conditions; Vivendi could take up Telecom Italia stake

The potential sale of Brazilian fixed line telco GVT to Telefonica [NYSE:TEF] is not expected to receive major conditions from Brazil’s regulatory authorities, and Telefonica plans to exit its Telecom Italia [ITA:TI] shareholding after the deal, according to newswire reports.

The merger review is relatively uncomplicated because GVT, which operates broadband networks, fixed telephony and pay TV, does not own licenses to operate mobile services, a Portuguese-language Reuters item noted, citing an source familiar with the matter. Therefore, there would be no frequency overlap with mobile operator Vivo, controlled by Telefonica Brasil [BVMF:VIVT4].

Competition concerns may demand more attention, the source continued, noting the potential for increased concentration is at its highest in Sao Paulo, where Telefonica offers services which are also offered by GVT.

Telefonica’s acquisition of GVT would be reviewed by Brazil’s telecommunications regulator Anatel and Brazil’s antitrust authority CADE, the source added.

A separate report by the same newswire cited Telefonica Chairman Cesar Alierta's comments at a telecoms conference, to the effect that the Spanish company does not "want to stay" invested in its Italian rival.

Telefonica has recently begun reducing its stake in Telecom Italia, which would come to 5.3% of its shares and 8.3% of its voting rights upon the conversion of a three-year bond. When Telefonica and Vivendi [NYSE:VIV] entered into exclusive talks over the GVT sale last week, it offered those rights as part of its offer, and sources said Vivendi is likely to take up this offer.

Telecom Italia had also attempted to bid for GVT, and the newswire flagged it as a suddenly vulnerable target in a rapidly consolidating sector.

>>> Iliad CFO says new partners may aid T-Mobile US bid

Iliad CFO says new partners may aid T-Mobile US bid

Iliad [PA:ILD], the French telecom company, may bring in extra partners for a bid for Deutsche Telekom's [XETRA:DTE] US-based cell phone company T-Mobile US [NYSE:TMUS], Boersen-Zeitung reported.

The German daily cited Iliad's finance chief, Thomas Reynaud, as saying that the bid remains current, and may be developed further with new partners.

Without identifying sources, the newspaper said Iliad appears to be aiming to gain support from financial investors to gain more than 56.6% of the target's capital.

So far, Iliad has been offering USD 15bn for a 56.6% stake, and the listed German phone company has rejected this as too low.

According to Reynaud, Iliad would be prepared to undertake a capital increase of no more than EUR 2bn to finance the planned takeover. He said financing is assured, and a syndicate of European and American banks is working with Iliad on the offer.

Since the offer was put forward at the end of July, telecom companies and finance investors have approached Iliad to examine the possibilities of a joint offer, he said, adding negotiations are not yet concluded.

Reynaud said an increase to Iliad’s initial offer has not neen on the agenda in discussions with potential bid partners, the Financial Times reported.

The FT item noted that Deutsche Telekom had been in discussions this year regarding the mooted sale of a majority interest in T-Mobile to Sprint at a price of approximately USD 39 per share. The article quoted people familiar with Deutsche Telekom’s thinking who said any fresh offer needs to be closer to that valuation.


Source Boersen-Zeitung, Financial Times

>>> Wal-Mart tipped as potential acquirer of Tesco

Wal-Mart tipped as potential acquirer of Tesco

Wal-Mart, the Bentonville, Arkansas-based retail giant, is rumoured to be a possible bidder for UK-listed supermarket chain Tesco, the Daily Mail reported. The market report said NYSE-listed Wal-Mart could easily afford its smaller British counterpart, which has seen its share price drop 40% over the past year.

Any deal would be bound to attract the interest of competition regulators as a merger would result in a single entity cornering 46% of the grocery market in the UK, the report said.

Tesco has an GBP 18.12bn (USD 30.05bn) market capitalisation, while Wal-Mart’s market cap is more than USD 243bn.


Source Daily Mail