For more than three decades, the family of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran’s former conservative president, has been seen by the Iranian public as a symbol of the Islamic regime’s corruption, allegedly with a hand in many projects, both big and small.
But the closed-door trial of one of Mr Rafsanjani’s sons, Mehdi Hashemi, on unspecified corruption and security charges is less to do with the current regime’s fight against corruption than with a growing power struggle as hardliners battle to reinstate their parliamentary majority in 2016 elections, ahead of a presidential poll the following year.
Even though the vote is still 18 months away in February 2016, hardliners – mainly based in the judiciary, the parliament, the state-run radio and television and the elite Revolutionary Guards – are already closing ranks against the centrist government of Hassan Rouhani.
“Iran’s politics are getting very complicated,” said one reform-minded analyst. “Hardliners, who know they have little public support, still think they can accuse their rivals of links to Mr Rafsanjani and prove they are corrupt.”
The tactic was successfully employed by former president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who used his election campaigns to question Mr Rafsanjani’s economic record and accuse his family of massive fraud – building Mr Ahmadi-Nejad a reputation as a champion in the fight against corruption.
But the latest charges relating to the Rafsanjani family come after disclosures that the biggest corruption in Iranian history took place on Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s watch, when in one case $2.8bn of oil revenues disappeared and in another an embezzlement of the same amount occurred in the banking sector. Many similar examples of corruption are thought to exist.
According to unconfirmed reports, Mr Hashemi is accused of receiving millions of dollars in commissions in oil contracts with western companies. While analysts do not rule out the possibility, they say these figures are considered tiny compared with the scale of the figures revealed in the corruption cases under the previous government.
“Rafsanjani and his family were not clean, but you cannot in any way compare that level of corruption with the current one started under the previous [Ahmadi-Nejad] government,” said one economist.
Mr Rafsanjani – whose alliance with Mohammad Khatami, a former reformist president, was crucial in mobilising public support for Mr Rouhani in last year’s election – has shown no sign of retreat.
He has recently become more outspoken and published a transcript of private meetings that took place six years ago during which he warned that the radical policies of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad were inflicting economic and political damage on the country.
“Rafsanjani is not going to be intimidated by the imprisonment of his children even though he knows Mehdi will get a heavy sentence,” said another reform-minded analyst. “He will continue to fight and influence Rouhani because he wants to save the Islamic regime and not to let radical forces destroy it.”
Mr Rouhani has also stood up to his opponents. When his minister of higher education was impeached two weeks ago, he promised to continue his university reforms – students are one of his main support bases – no matter how many more ministers were removed.
In recent weeks, Mr Rouhani’s government has accused the state broadcaster of refusing to cover its achievements, particularly the reduction of the inflation rate from about 40 per cent to 25.3 per cent over the past year, which has been widely praised by Iranian economists.
Akbar Torkan, a senior adviser to Iran’s president, said hardliners were instead trying to show the government was inefficient.
Although government opponents are unable to block Mr Rouhani over the nuclear talks with the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany, thanks to the strong support he receives from the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, they are hoping the negotiations will fail, making him vulnerable to charges of ‘inefficiency’, if not treason.
“Whenever there is any new round of talks, some say they are shaking [with fear],” Mr Rouhani said of his political adversaries recently: “OK, go to hell! . . . I cannot do anything [for you].”
Meanwhile, analysts say hardliners also worry that Mr Rouhani may meet US President Barack Obama on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this month even though Iran’s president denied such a meeting was being planned. If a meeting took place, it would be the first time the two countries’ presidents have met since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
It is not clear whether the arrest in July of Jason Rezaian – an Iranian-American journalist writing for the Washington Post – is related to back-channel efforts to prevent any such encounter between the two presidents.
Some analysts expect the suppression of pro-reform forces to intensify and say it is highly likely that Mehdi Hashemi will be sentenced to at least a couple of years in jail, which then can be exploited by hardliners against moderate forces in the next elections.
Mr Hashemi and other Rafsanjani family members deny all allegations of corruption. Mr Rafsanjani’s daughter, Fatemeh Hashemi, who is also charged with security offences, accused hardliners of “taking the son for the father”.
“Those who were themselves involved in corruption accuse our family of corruption to mobilise the public opinion against Mr Rafsanjani and to decrease his influence in politics,” Ms Hashemi said, speaking to the Financial Times. “Today, people see that the Hashemis have not been involved in any wrongdoing and see that the judiciary does not deal with those who were involved in corruption. The image of Hashemi family has improved a lot.”