(Les Echos) L'accord secret du gouvernement avec les concessionnaires pour une h

L'Etat a convenu en 2013 avec les sociétés d'autoroutes une hausse des péages de 1,5 % pour compenser l'augmentation de la redevance domaniale.

Voilà un accord que l'Etat garde secret depuis plus d'un an, et pour cause : c'est une bombe politique. Alors que la ministre de l'Ecologie Ségolène Royal dit réclamer un gel des tarifs pour 2015, un protocole paraphé il y a un an prévoit une hausse des péages de 1,5 %, étalée sur la période 2015-2018, qui s'ajouterait aux hausses annuelles classiques…
Tout part de la décision du gouvernement, fin 2012, d'imposer aux concessionnaires autoroutiers une augmentation de 50 % de la redevance domaniale, une taxe dont les sociétés concernées s'acquittent en contrepartie de l'occupation du domaine public. Le rendement annuel de cette taxe est porté de 200 à 300 millions d'euros.
Mais, fin 2012, les concessionnaires ne se laissent pas faire. Ils font valoir, contrats à l'appui, que cette augmentation de la fiscalité doit être compensée. S'ensuivent plusieurs mois de discussions tendues, parallèlement aux négociations sur le plan de relance autoroutier. Les deux sujets finissent par faire l'objet d'un deal global en 2013.
Un protocole d'accord est alors paraphé entre les concessionnaires et l'Etat, avec deux volets : la répercussion sur les péages de la hausse de la redevance domaniale, et le plan de relance autoroutier, soit 3,2 milliards d'euros de travaux à la charge des concessionnaires, en échange d'une prolongation de trois ans en moyenne des concessions.
Le plan de relance nécessitait le feu vert de Bruxelles pour que le protocole puisse être officiellement signé. Un feu vert obtenu en octobre dernier. Dès lors, plus rien n'empêche une signature officielle. D'autant que les concessionnaires ont déjà décaissé cette année, pour la première fois, une redevance majorée de 50 %. Ils attendent donc la compensation promise. Selon le protocole, elle doit prendre la forme d'une hausse des tarifs lissée sur la période 2015-2018, dont une hausse de 0,5 % dès février 2015.
Marche arrière impossible
L'ennui, pour le gouvernement, c'est que depuis cet accord, resté secret mais validé par le Conseil d'Etat, il a lui-même suscité une polémique sur le niveau des péages et des profits des concessionnaires, qui rend désormais toute hausse des péages politiquement désastreuse. Il doit donc sortir de cette impasse en renégociant le protocole, dans le cadre d'un accord plus global sur les profits des concessionnaires (lire ci-dessus). Et il faut y parvenir rapidement car les péages sont révisés tous les ans au 1er février.
L'Etat ne peut revenir unilatéralement sur l'accord, les concessionnaires attaqueraient au contentieux. Ils n'ont pas le choix : renoncer aux clauses de compensation prévues par les contrats serait une atteinte à l'intérêt social de l'entreprise, avec le risque de poursuites de la part des actionnaires.
En attendant, les gesticulations politiques se multiplient. Il y a quelques jours, le traditionnel courrier de l'administration notifiant chaque année au Comité des usagers l'augmentation annuelle des péages calculée par ses soins a été présenté par Ségolène Royal comme une proposition des concessionnaires contre laquelle elle s'insurgeait. Alors même que les concessionnaires n'avaient même pas été notifiés du courrier, ont-ils amèrement souligné, et que la formule de calcul est contractuelle…

>>> What to look at today - 17th of December 2014

US Market was volatile, managed to trade in positive territory during the day before the last hour sell off, Russia & Oil was still the main catalysts for pushing world market lower, cyclical sectors could not stay out of the red with consumer discretionary (-1.6%), financials (-1.0%), and technology (-1.5%) driving the market to fresh lows during afternoon action...the industrial ended on its flat line, owing its outperformance to defense contractors, and specifically, shares of Boeing +1,8%, Energy closed in positive territory after a rebound on crude but this move look difficult to hold higher levels...Volume were above average @ 996m shares...VIX @ 23,57 +15,43%...US After Hours PLAY +7.7%, DRI +2.0%, RT -5.1%, CFX -1.7%, HEI -1.0% following earnings/guidance...Asian indices are modestly higher despite the final hour selloff on Wall St and continued uncertainty surrounding Russia, with short-covering flows heading into Wednesday's FOMC policy statement. According to some surveys, more analysts are leaning in favor of the FOMC eliminating the "considerable time" language which would likely pave the way to the first rate hike some time in Q2 of next year, Asia Development Bank lowered developing Asia GDP forecast to 6.1% from 6.2% prior and 2015 to 6.2% from 6.4% made in September...Japan put out a lower than expected trade deficit even though exports growth of 4.9% was below 7.0% expected, as imports registered an outright contraction of 1.7% against expected rise of 1.6%...Nikkei +0.38%...Hang Seng -0.27%...Shanghai +0.30%

--> As everybody is focus on Russia RUB @ 71.4 WTI @ $55.70 Brent @ $60.15

Eur$ 1.2478 S&P +0.36% EurosToxx -1.41% DAX -1.2% SMI -0.63%

Macro :
- Coeure Sees ‘Broad Consensus’ in ECB on More Stimulus: L’Opinion
- S&P Lowers Crude Oil Assumptions for WTI, Brent for 2015, 2016

Keep an eye on :
- AFR LN : Afren rallied on Madagascar Discover (yest)
- ALO FP : Alstom Power Ltd Said to Face New Charges From U.K. SFO: FT
- EN FP : Bouygues Telecom in Partnership With Spotify, Les Echos Says
- BVD FP : Belvedere planning assets sale worth more than EUR 20m - Company press release
- CGL LN : Catlin rumoured to be in line for takeover approach - FT
- CRH LN : CRH, Blackstone, CVC May Bid for Holcim-Lafarge Assets: Reuters
- DGE LN : Ex-Diageo CEO Said to Walk Away From Formula 1 Chairmanship: FT
- ELEB BB : Electrabel Reactor Safety-Case Methodology Not Mature: FANC Link
- FNC IM : Finmeccanica Says It Received Insigma Offer for AnsaldoBreda
- HAW GY : Hawesko Says Permira Has No Intention to Bid for Co.
- RMS FP : Hermes closed +1,52% , 773k shares traded
- MEO GY : Metro would not rule out eventual Kaufhof sale; not actively looking for buyer - Rheinische Post
- OLE SM : Deoleo Board Says Improved Bid From Ole Is ‘Positive’
- PHIA NA : Philips to Buy Volcano for $18/Shr in Cash / +56.7% Premium vs yest close (VOLC US / Medical Devices) / $1bil deal
- PUM GY : Puma Signs Rihanna as Global Brand Ambassador
- REP SM : Talisman CEO Confident of Canadian Approval of Repsol Takeover
- SBMO NA : SBM Offshore Reiterates 2014 Sales Outlook
- SCHP VX : Schindler May Be Takeover Target for PE, CEO Napoli Tells FuW
- SIK VX : Sika Board to Meet Investors on Planned Saint-Gobain Deal
- SN/ LN : Philips/Volcano deal could helped the stock, +3% yest.news that Stryker had increased the size of a short-term debt fundraising to $1.25bn from up to $500m. Stryker has been free under Takeover Panel rules to bid for S&N since late November
- UCG IM : UniCredit CEO Rules Out 4Q Writedowns for Russian Unit
- DG FP : France Made Secret Agreement With Highways 2H 2013: Echos
- WPP LN : WPP Said to Name Roberto Quarta Chairman, Replacing Lader: Sky

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of December 2014

>>> Up
*A2A RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*ANGLO AMERICAN RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT LIBERUM
*GAS NATURAL RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*GLENCORE RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT LIBERUM
*IBERDROLA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN
*INTERTEK RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*RIO TINTO RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT LIBERUM
*TATE & LYLE RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE

>>> Down
*EVN CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*PETROFAC CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*SGS CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT HSBC

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*DEUTSCHE ANNINGTON RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN, PT EU25.5
*GN STORE NORD RATED NEW BUY AT CITI, PT DK158
*SONOVA RATED NEW SELL AT CITI, PT CHF121
*WILLIAM DEMANT RATED NEW BUY AT CITI, PT DK578
*WOOD GROUP RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT CITI, PT 600P

>>> Call
>> Stock
*BEIERSDORF ADDED TO TOP PICK LIST AT BAADER-HELVEA
*DUFRY, PARTNERS GROUP ADDED TO TOP PICK LIST AT BAADER-HELVEA
*HUBER & SUHNER ALSO ADDED TO TOP PICK LIST: BAADER-HELVEA
*NOVARTIS ADDED TO TOP PICK LIST AT BAADER-HELVEA
*SIXT ALSO ADDED TO TOP PICK LIST: BAADER-HELVEA
*TERNA ADDED TO GOLDMAN CONVICTION SELL LIST; WAS SELL
>> Sector
*MINING SECTOR RAISED TO HOLD AT LIBERUM

>>> Sika continues to not support SGO offer, to discuss situation with investors

Sika continues to not support SGO offer, to discuss situation with investors following shareholder requests
 
In response to numerous requests from shareholders and with the intent of entering into a constructive dialogue, Sika will discuss the situation resulting from the planned transaction between the Burkard Family and Saint-Gobain with its investors, based on the presentation as published on the Sika website here.

KEY EVENTS OF THE LAST 10 DAYS

* December 5, board and management of Sika were informed of transaction for first time on Friday evening by family and SGO
* Initial limited discussions between Sika and SGO during following weekend, with SGO rejecting constructive suggestions to mitigate apparent flaws of current structure
* Publication of independent position of Sika board and management on transaction last Monday (8 December)
* Planned transaction is not in the best interest of Sika or its public shareholders
* Board and management do not support transaction in its planned form
* Family requested EGM to replace three independent board members with two nominees to gain majority in board (10 December)
* No further interaction between Sika and SGO to date

>>> US After Hours : PLAY +7.7%, DRI +2.0%, RT -5.1%, CFX -1.7%, HEI -1.0% foll

After Hours Summary: PLAY +7.7%, DRI +2.0%, RT -5.1%, CFX -1.7%, HEI -1.0% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: PLAY
+7.7%, DRI +2.0%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ASPX +71.4% (announced positive topline results from registration trial of SD-809 for chorea associated with Huntington's Disease; Pivotal Phase 3 trial met primary and multiple key secondary efficacy endpoints), CERS +22.2% (confirmed FDA approval of INTERCEPT Blood System for plasma), PTRY +17.8% (seeing reports that co is nearing a deal to be sold), APP +15.5% (named Paula Schneider CEO; terminated Dov Charney), AREX +2.4% (announced capital budget plans for 2015: Estimated capital spending of $180 million in 2015; Projected y/y production growth of 10-14% in 2015; Projected 2015 oil volumes 64% hedged at a weighted average floor price of $82.38), TRGT +1.7% (disclosed that on December 11, 2014, the Board appointed Mauri K. Hodges to serve on an interim basis as the Company's Vice President, Finance and Administration, CFO and Treasurer, effective immediately)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: RT -5.1%, CFX -1.7%, HEI -1.0%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: IVR -2.0% (declared Q4 cash dividend of $0.45/share of common stock, down from $0.50/share),  

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: ADB cuts Asia and China GDP forecasts; Japan trade deficit smaller as imports fall


***Economic Data***
- (JP) JAPAN NOV MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -¥892B V -¥992BE; ADJ TRADE BALANCE: -¥925B V -¥983BE
- (CN) China Dec ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index: 155.5 v 157.1 prior
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: -0.8% V 0.0% PRIOR (largest decline in 16 months)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV WESTPAC LEADING INDEX M/M: -0.1% V +0.1% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (NZ$): -5.0B V -5.3BE; 2nd quarter of deficit
- (SG) SINGAPORE NOV ELECTRONIC EXPORTS Y/Y: -10.2% V -2.5%E; NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS M/M: 2.9% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 3.9%E
- (KR) South Korea Nov PPI Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.8% prior; 4th month of decline

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.5%, S&P/ASX +0.6%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +1.0%, Hang Seng -0.2%, Mar S&P500 +0.2% at 1,969

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold +0.3% at $1,197, Jan crude oil -1.8% at $54.93/brl, Copper -0.2% at $2.86/lb
- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +1.9M (2nd consecutive build) v -2Me, GASOLINE: +2.8M v +2Me, DISTILLATE: -1M v +1Me
- (CN) China iron ore inventory at 34 ports 99.0Mt, down from 102Mt last Friday, first time below 100Mt since Feb 14th - Chinese press
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.8 tonnes to 721.6 tonnes ; 1-week low
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,606 tonnes from 10,648 tonnes prior
- (CN) China MoF sells 10-yr bonds at 3.77% yield vs 3.75%e
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point 6.1137 v 6.1182 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since Feb 19th)
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥450B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥450B in 3-5yr JGB, ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Regional indices are modestly higher despite the final hour selloff on Wall St and continued uncertainty surrounding Russia, with short-covering flows heading into Wednesday's FOMC policy statement. According to some surveys, more analysts are leaning in favor of the FOMC eliminating the "considerable time" language which would likely pave the way to the first rate hike some time in Q2 of next year.

- Asia Development Bank lowered developing Asia GDP forecast to 6.1% from 6.2% prior and 2015 to 6.2% from 6.4% made in September. Unlike that last report when ADB maintained China projections, today's note also cut China 2014 GDP forecast to 7.4% from 7.5% and 2015 to 7.2% from 7.4%. India GDP forecasts were affirmed at 5.5% in 6.3% respectively. Separately in China, ANZ chief economist speculated the govt would "likely tolerate a slower growth rate in the coming years, under the framework of new normal economy and will strike a balance among social, environmental, and economic targets."

- Japan put out a lower than expected trade deficit even though exports growth of 4.9% was below 7.0% expected, as imports registered an outright contraction of 1.7% against expected rise of 1.6%. This trend could continue, as collapse in oil prices has resulted in November's 13.9% contraction in crude import volume, up from 8.8% decline in the prior month. Japan Econ Min Amari has also set out to complete emergency economic measures by around Dec 27th.

- In Australia, Westpac leading index fell and the bank also lowered its 2015 GDP target to 2.7% from 3.2%. Resident Westpac economist said this marks "the tenth consecutive month where the growth rate in the index has been below trend", adding "RBA comments are discouraging for our call for an early cut (but) we are retaining our rate call given that much can change over the next six weeks." Also down under, New Zealand Q3 Current Account deficit was smaller than expected but still marked the widest deficit in nearly 6 years. Moody's announced it's comfortable with New Zealand AAA rating despite the Finance Ministry pushing back return to budget surplus by a year yesterday. AUD/USD and NZD/USD have been under some notable pressure in today's session despite the bounce in equities, falling about 0.8% to around 0.8150 and 0.7730 respectively.

***Equities***
US markets/ADRs:
- ASPX: Announces Positive Topline Results From Phase 3 Registration Trial of SD-809 for Chorea Associated With Huntington's Disease; +63.4% afterhours
- CERS: FDA approves first pathogen reduction system to treat plasma; +20.9% afterhours
- APP: Names Paula Schneider as CEO, Terminates Dov Charney; +20.7% afterhours
- PTRY: Said to be nearing a deal to be sold - financial press; +17.8% afterhours
- DRI: Reports Q2 $0.28 v $0.27e, R$1.56B v $1.55Be; +2.3% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Japan Tobacco 2914.JP -7.0% (Japan may remove tax breaks)
- Financials: CITIC Securities 600030.CN +6.6%, Huatai Securities 601688.CN +2.1% (rumors China to relax capital requirement for brokers); Guotai Junan 1788.HK -9.1% (Dep CEO under investigation)
- Materials: Whitehaven Coal WHC.AU +4.0% (coal railings commenced); Henan Tongli Cement 000885.CN +10.0% (Henan Tianrui discloses 5% stake)
- Energy: Kansai Electric Power 9503.JP +3.4% (plans to raise power rates)
- Industrials: Boart Longyear BLY.AU -8.3% (shareholders to vote on bailout plan); Geely Automobile 175.HK -17.0% (guides FY14 lower); China Railway Construction Group 601186.CN +10.0% (to build 4 major projects)

>>> Catlin rumoured to be in line for takeover approach

Catlin rumoured to be in line for takeover approach

Catlin, the UK-listed insurer based in Bermuda, is rumoured to be a possible target for takeover, the Financial TImes reported.

The market report said Catlin’s share price rose to 582p, up 2.8%, on 16 December amid chatter that an approach could be on the cards.

The report noted that Catlin has been considered a possible target ever since its peer Brit Insurance was bought out by private-equity companies four years ago.

Catlin has a market capitalisation of GBP 2.087bn (USD 3.281bn).


Financial Times

>>> US Close Dow -0,65% S&P -0,85% Nasdaq -1,24% Russell -0,92%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Slump With One Eye on Russia

The stock market endured a volatile session on Tuesday with investors keeping one eye on the oil market and one on the dollar/ruble exchange rate. The Russell 2000 (-0.1%) registered the slimmest decline while the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.9% after failing to hold its 100-day (1988) and 50-day moving averages (2001).

Yesterday evening, the Central Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate by 650-basis points to 17.0% with the move aimed at halting the recent freefall in the ruble. The news gave a brief boost to the Russian currency, but the ruble was down more than 18.0% (77.93) against the dollar this morning, which invited concerns about potential economic and financial risks stemming from the continued plunge. This sent participants scrambling in search of safe havens, which boosted Treasuries and the yen.

Meanwhile in the commodity market, crude oil was down in excess of 2.5% this morning, but the energy component spiked off its low shortly after the start of the pit session. Oil was able to return to its flat line, but could not make a sustained move into the green, ending with a nine-cent loss at $55.87/bbl.

The rebound in crude occurred as equities climbed off their lows, while the ruble managed to reclaim its overnight loss. Also of note, the dollar/yen pair narrowed its decline to about 110 pips (116.70), allowing the Dollar Index (87.93, -0.53) to climb off its low. The index hovers just below its November high going into tomorrow's FOMC policy directive, which will be released at 14:00 ET.

While the FOMC statement is likely to acknowledge continued growth and strength in the U.S. labor market, it is unlikely that it will have a strong hawkish undertone considering the recent weakness in crude oil and the resulting impact on inflation.

Only two sectors ended the day in the green with energy (+0.7%) representing the lone advancer on the cyclical side. The energy sector was able to rally as participants deemed the growth-sensitive sector oversold on a short-term basis after losing 8.1% so far in December. Today's advance trimmed the sector's month-to-date loss to 7.0% with Dow component Chevron (CVX 101.70, +0.84) climbing 0.8%.

Also of note, the industrial ended on its flat line, owing its outperformance to defense contractors, and specifically, shares of Boeing (BA 124.25, +2.17). The stock jumped 1.8% after the company hiked its quarterly dividend 25.0% to $0.91 per share and increased its share repurchase plan to $12 billion.

The remaining cyclical sectors could not stay out of the red with consumer discretionary (-1.6%), financials (-1.0%), and technology (-1.5%) driving the market to fresh lows during afternoon action.

Notably, the tech sector trailed the broader market throughout the day, but its underperformance proved to be a significant drag in the afternoon. Google (GOOGL 498.16, -17.68) and Microsoft (MSFT 45.22, -1.45) posted respective losses of 3.4% and 3.1%, with the latter suffering from a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch downgrade to ‘Underperform' from ‘Neutral.'

The underperformance of technology kept the Nasdaq (-1.2%) behind the S&P 500 throughout the day while afternoon weakness in the biotech space pressured the tech-heavy index to a fresh low ahead of the close. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 293.67, -3.99) and the health care sector both lost 1.3%.

Treasuries ended near their highs with the 10-yr yield lower by seven basis points at 2.05%.

Participation was ahead of average with more than 996 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to Housing Starts and Business Permits:
  • Housing starts declined 1.6% in November to 1.028 million from an upwardly revised 1.045 million (from 1.009 million) while the consensus expected a reading of 1.035 million 
    • Recent gains in the NAHB Homebuilders survey suggested rapid construction growth is on the near-term horizon. Over the last 12 months, however, housing starts have averaged 994,000 per month and recent trends are slightly upward moving. Homebuilders may be saying that they expect strong demand growth, yet the lackluster housing starts data clearly show that they are not actively preparing for accelerated demand 
  • Building Permits declined 5.2% to 1.035 million while the consensus expected a reading of 1.060 million 
Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while November CPI (consensus -0.1%), Core CPI (consensus 0.1%), and Q3 Current Account Balance (consensus -$95.00 billion) will all be reported at 8:30 ET. Also of note, the FOMC will release its latest policy directive at 14:00 ET.
  • Nasdaq Composite +8.9% YTD 
  • S&P 500 +6.7% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.0% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 -2.0% YTD

(BFW) Genel Energy President Sells 1.4m Shares at GBP6.10/Share


BN 12/16 14:37 *GENEL ENERGY: MEHMET SEPIL SOLD 1.4M SHRS AT £6.10/SHR

Genel Energy President Sells 1.4m Shares at GBP6.10/Share
2014-12-16 14:43:52.802 GMT


By Blanche Gatt
(Bloomberg) -- Genel Energy comments on sale of shares by
President Mehmet Sepil in statement.
Link to Statement:Link
Link to Company News:{GENL LN <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Blanche Gatt at +44-20-7392-0351 or
bgatt@bloomberg.net

>>> Barclays maintains Neutral outlook on Russian Oil & Gas Sector

Barclays maintains Neutral outlook on Russian Oil & Gas Sector 
- Within the Russian Big 4, firm prefers Lukoil (OW, PT $50) and Novatek (OW, PT $90) owing to better dividends for the former and a key de-risking catalyst for the latter. They have also downgraded Gazprom to Underweight (UW, PT $4.75) and reiterate our rating on Rosneft (UW, PT $4).