(BFW) Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz Cars Aug. Sales Rise 9.2% to 124,663

Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz Cars Aug. Sales Rise 9.2% to 124,663
2014-09-05 08:30:00.8 GMT


By Brian Lysaght
Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- 8-mo. sales up 10.9%.

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(BoA-ML) The Flow Show - Long Live the Long-Only

The Flow Show - Long Live the Long-Only

* Stocks over Bonds: $6.2bn inflow to stocks vs $2.1bn to bonds

* Still crazy for Credit: $3bn inflow to IG bonds… investors still in love with corporate bonds (YTD flows to IG bonds of $115bn actually exceed inflows of $98bn to stocks)

* Long Live the Long-Only: $2.3bn inflow to Long-Only equity funds (largest since April)…secular top in stocks most unlikely before big resumption of uptrend in LO inflows

* Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking: $1.3bn redemptions from European stock funds (Chart 4)…but contrarians note European (BE500) stocks @ 6-year highs today post-ECB

* Trading update: flows don’t signal imminent danger for stocks; traders wait for BofAML Bull-Bear index to hit 8, FMS cash levels down to <4% from >5% before going short; that said, frothier credit markets must be watched…HY spreads unable to break below 300bps & spreads very correlated with VIX index


Asset class flows:
* Equities: $6.2bn inflows ($2.3bn inflows to long-only funds = biggest weekly inflows since Apr’14)
* Bonds: $2.1bn inflows (smallest in 4 weeks) (Table 1)
* Precious Metals: $0.2bn outflows (2 straight weeks)

FICC flows:
* 37 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($3.0bn) (Chart 3)
* Tiny $32mn outflows from HY bond funds (first outflows in 3 weeks)
* $1.4bn outflows from Govt/Tsy funds (2 straight weeks)
* 2 straight weeks of modest inflows to EM debt funds ($0.2bn)
* 8 straight weeks of outflows from floating-rate debt ($0.5bn)

Equity flows
* Europe: $1.3bn outflows (outflows in 8 out of past 9 weeks) (Chart 4)
* EM: modest $0.7bn inflows (13 straight weeks and longest inflow streak since Feb’13) (Table 2)
* US: $5.8bn inflows (majority via ETF’s – SPY, IJH, IWM)
* Japan: $0.4bn outflows

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 05/09/2014

>>> Up
*AMEC RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*ATRESMEDIA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*GDF SUEZ ADDED TO TOP PICKS AT MORGAN STANLEY
*HENKEL RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE BNP PARIBAS
*ING RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*INTESA SANPAOLO RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*INTESA SANPAOLO ADDED TO CITI FOCUS LIST EUROPE
*JULIUS BAER RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*LEONTEQ RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS
*MEDIASET ESPANA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*QSC RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*RANDSTAD RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*SAFILO RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BANCA AKROS; PT CUT TO EU14.7
*SUPERGROUP RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFAML
*SKF RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT SWEDBANK
*VALLOUREC RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*UNITED SPIRITS RAISED TO UNDERPERFORM FROM SELL AT CLSA

>>> Down
*BILFINGER CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*CAPITA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*COCA-COLA HBC CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*CREDIT SUISSE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*DANSKE BANK REMOVED FROM CITI FOCUS LIST EUROPE
*ELRINGKLINGER CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN SACHS
*KBC CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*MTN GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT BOFAML
*NEOPOST RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT NATIXIS
*NORD GOLD CUT TO HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*NORDEA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT SWEDBANK
*PETROFAC CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*SUBSEA 7 CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*STATOIL RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*SWEDISH MATCH CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*VIENNA INSURANCE CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL: CREDIT SUISSE

>>> PT changes
*SAFILO RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BANCA AKROS; PT CUT TO EU14.7

>>> Call
*GDF SUEZ ADDED TO TOP PICKS AT MORGAN STANLEY
*DANSKE BANK REMOVED FROM CITI FOCUS LIST EUROPE
*INTESA SANPAOLO ADDED TO CITI FOCUS LIST EUROPE
*ITALIAN BANKS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT CITI

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MTRX -15.9%, CIEN -10%, SCVL -8.7%, AVAV -6.4%, JOY -2.3%, UTIW -1%

Other news: KMDA -19.3% (eports final results from Phase 2/3 clinical trial of inhaled Alpha-1 Antitrypsin to treat Alpha-1 Antitrypsin deficiency), GNE -8.8% (stated it is considering alternative ways forward for oil shale pilot project in Israel following the Jerusalem District Committee for Planning and Building vote to decline to issue a permit to build and operate an oil shale pilot drilling project), SMLP -4.9% (announced public offering of 4 mln common units by selling unitholders), MEMP -4.8% (announced public offering of 13 mln common units), AI -3.5% (announced offering of 2.75 mln shares of common stock), YUM -3.2% (disclosed significant, negative impact to sales at both KFC and Pizza Hut in China; sees Q3 same store sales -13%), NRF -2.6% (announced public offering of 45 mln shares with a forward component), GRUB -1.4% (prices follow-on public offering of 10,468,198 shares of common stock offered by the co and certain stockholders at $40.25 per share), DEPO -0.6% (announces pricing of upsized $300 mln convertible Senior Notes due 2021)

Analyst comments: TNGO -4.1% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays), GPRO -3.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), DDD -2.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Pacific Crest), INFA -1% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays), LVS -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/SSS: ITI +11.2%, MEI +10.9%, MAGS +9.9%, PVH +8.4%, BV +5.6%, DDC +4.9%, ABM +3.3%, PAY +2.5%, HRB +2%, COST +1.4%, MBLY +1%

M&A news: BOLT +36.6% (to be acquired by Teledyne (TDY) for $22 per share in cash), BWP +2.7% (to acquire Evangeline ethylene pipeline system for $295 mln in cash), SYNL +1.1% (announces sale of Ram-Fab in Crossett, Arkansas to a subsidiary of Primoris Services (PRIM)).

Other news: MITK +68.8% (announced settlement of pending litigation with USAA), SGOC +16.2% (seeing continued strength following yesterday's 50% move higher), TIBX +7.6% (announced a review of strategic alternatives), HMSY +5.3% (modestly rebounding in premkt trade), MHGC +5.1% (announced its special transaction committee has directed Morgan Stanley to reach out to possible counterparties regarding their interest in potential transactions), TASR +3.8% (announces multiple orders of its TASER brand next generation Smart Weapons, aslo positive Mad Money mention), ISNS +3.7% (pulling back following recent gains), NLNK +2.7% (FDA gives NewLink Genetics approval to proceed to phase 1 clinical studies of their ebola vaccine), MPET +2.5% (announces drilling operations on the Horse Hill-1 well commenced on Sep 3, 2014), ALLT +2.2% (announces follow-on order with a Tier-1 global telecommunications group), ECR +2.1% (announced the commencement of production at two of the Co's pad locations consisting of a total of 7 Utica Shale wells; co also reaffirmed its production guidance for Q3), PLUG +1.3% (announces Chris Hutter has been appointed CFO), CELG +0.9% (reported Phase III FIRST trial of REVLIMID Plus Dexamethasone)

Analyst comments: OI +2.2% (initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital Mkts), DHI +2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), CERN +1.4% (resumed with a Overweight at JP Morgan), HIMX +1.3% (tgt raise at Brean Cap'l), IACI +1.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays), LPX +1.1% (initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital Mkts), INFI +1.1% (upgraded to Mkt Outperform from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities), FL +0.6% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies), COP +0.6% (target raised to $95), PKG +0.5% (initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital Mkts)