>>> US Close :Dow +1,69% S&P+2,02% Nasdaq+2,12% Russell+3,08%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Rally While Fed Calls For Patience

The stock market ended the Wednesday session with solid gains that were paced by the Russell 2000. The small-cap index jumped 3.1% while the S&P 500 settled higher by 2.0% with all ten sectors registering gains.

Equities climbed through the first half of action and saw an extension of their rally in the afternoon once the FOMC released its latest policy directive.

As expected by some, the Fed removed the "considerable time" language from its policy statement, but that reference was replaced with a call for "patience," which essentially conveyed the same message. Above all, Chair Yellen reiterated that the central bank will remain data-dependent and reserves the right to accelerate, or defer, a rate hike in accordance with what the data are communicating about the progress being made toward the Fed's dual mandate.

With regard to inflation, Ms. Yellen touched on the drop in oil prices during her press conference, but showed little concern, saying the decline is expected to be transitory.

The policy statement was followed by volatile action in the bond market, but Treasuries slid to lows into the close. The benchmark 10-yr yield spiked eight basis points to 2.14%.

As for equities, the energy sector (+4.2%) paced the advance and ended near its high even as crude oil slumped into the close, ending higher by 1.0% at $56.44/bbl.

The energy sector was followed by the materials space (+2.8%), which benefitted from gains among miners and steelmakers. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 17.98, +0.88) and Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX 35.31, +1.27) ended higher by 5.2% and 3.7%, respectively.

Outside of the two commodity-related groups, the financial sector (+2.3%) represented the only other outperformer on the cyclical side. Influential sector components fueled the strength with Bank of America (BAC 17.26, +0.54) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 59.77, +1.34) posting respective gains of 3.2% and 2.3%.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector (+0.9%) climbed out of the red after the FOMC statement, but the sector could not keep pace with the broader market amid relative weakness in transport stocks. FedEx (FDX 167.78, -6.48) tumbled 3.7% after missing estimates while peers Expeditors International (EXPD 43.28, -0.98) and UPS (UPS 108.55, -1.28) lost 2.2% and 1.2%, respectively. However, rail carriers CSX (CSX 35.77, +1.10) and Union-Pacific (UNP 114.89, +2.69) helped the Dow Jones Transportation Average end higher by 0.9%.

Today's participation was ahead of average with more than a billion shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included CPI, Core CPI, Q3 Current Account, and MBA Mortgage Index:
  • Consumer prices declined 0.3% in November after being unchanged in October, which was the biggest decline since CPI fell 0.8% in December 2008 
    • The consensus expected a decline of 0.1% 
    • The entire decline in prices can be attributed to the energy sector. Energy prices fell 3.8% in November, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the largest drop since falling 9.5% in December 2008 
    • Gasoline prices fell 6.6% after declining 3.0% in October 
    • Food prices increased 0.2% in November, up from a 0.1% gain in October 
  • Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.1% in November, down from a 0.2% gain in October, while the consensus expected an increase of 0.1% 
  • The current account deficit for the third quarter totaled $100.30 billion while the consensus expected the deficit to hit $95.00 billion 
    • The second quarter deficit was revised down to $98.40 billion from $98.50 billion 
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Index fell 3.3% to follow last week's 7.3% spike 
Tomorrow, weekly Initial Claims (consensus 292K) will be released at 8:30 ET while November Leading Indicators (consensus 0.5%) and the Philadelphia Fed Survey for December (consensus 26.0) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.
  • Nasdaq Composite +11.2% YTD 
  • S&P 500 +8.9% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.7% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 +0.9% YTD

>>> Jabil Circuit beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides FebQ core EPS above cons

Jabil Circuit beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides FebQ core EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY15 core EPS above consensus, revs above consensus 

Reports Q1 (Nov) core earnings of $0.55 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.47; revenues rose 4.8% year/year to $4.55 bln vs the $4.32 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2 (Feb), sees core EPS of $0.39-0.50, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.38 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 revs of $4.15-4.35 bln vs. $4.10 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Co issues upside guidance for FY15, sees core EPS of $1.85-2.15, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.81 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY15 revs of $17.5-18.5 bln vs. $17.2 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

- "We had a very strong start to the fiscal year as our team exceeded expectations...Our results reflect strong demand within our Diversified Manufacturing Services segment as well as solid execution and performance across the entire business."

>>> Herman Miller misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below con

Herman Miller misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY15 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus 

Reports Q2 (Nov) earnings of $0.51 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.52; revenues rose 20.2% year/year to $565.4 mln vs the $561.9 mln consensus.
- Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.33-0.37 vs. $0.44 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q3 revs of $510-530 mln vs. $543.13 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
- Co issues downside guidance for FY15, sees EPS of $1.80-1.88, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.96 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY15 revs of $2.145-2.185 bln vs. $2.19 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
- New orders in this segment totaled $112.4 million in the second quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.7%.
- On an organic basis, segment sales increased 13.7% and orders increased 10.5% from the second quarter of last year. Herman Miller's consolidated gross margin in the second quarter totaled 36.4% compared to 25.3% reported in the same quarter of last fiscal year.

>>> Oracle beats by $0.01, beats on revs

Oracle beats by $0.01, beats on revs  

Reports Q2 (Nov) earnings of $0.69 per share, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.68; revenues rose 3.5% year/year to $9.6 bln vs the $9.5 bln consensus.
- ORCL Q2 Software and cloud revenue +5% tp $7.3 bln), Guidance +5-8%.
- Cloud software-as-a-service (SaaS), platform-as-a-service (PaaS) and infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) revenue was up 45% to $516 million.
- Hardware Systems revenues were up 1% to $1.3 billion. GAAP operating income was up 4% to $3.5 billion, and the GAAP operating margin was 37%.
- "Total Q2 new cloud bookings grew at a rate of more than 140%... By Q4 of this year we expect our new cloud bookings to exceed $250 million...Next fiscal year our new cloud bookings will be well over the billion dollars mark."
- Co guides on the call.

>>> Economic Summary: Fed keeps 'considerable time' language in stat

Economic Summary: Fed keeps 'considerable time' language in statement

Economic Data Summary:
  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications -3.3% vs consensus of ; Last Week was 7.3%
  • November CPI -0.3% vs consensus of -0.1%; October was 0.0%
  • November Core CPI 0.1% vs consensus of 0.1%; October was 0.2%
    • The entire decline in prices can be attributed to the energy sector. Energy prices fell 3.8% in November, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the largest drop since falling 9.5% in December 2008. Gasoline prices fell 6.6% after declining 3.0% in October.
  • Third Quarter Current Account Balance -$100.3 bln vs consensus of -$95.0 bln; Second Quarter was revised to -$98.4 bln from -$98.5 bln
Fed/Treasury Events Summary:
  • Fed Keeps 'Considerable Time Language":  Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy....the Committee sees this guidance as consistent with its previous statement that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program in October, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.
  • 3 Members dissented:
    • Dallas Fed President Fisher, a noted hawk, dissented on the belief that U.S. economic performance since October has moved forward since October, more than the majority of the Committee envisions, the date when it will likely be appropriate to increase the federal funds rate. 
    • Philadelphia Fed President Plosser, another noted hawk, dissented on the grounds that the statement should not stress the importance of the passage of time as a key element of its forward guidance and that it should not emphasize the consistency of the current forward guidance with previous statements given the improvement in economic conditions.
    • Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, a noted dove, thought the Committee's decision created undue downside risk to the credibility of the 2 percent inflation target. 
  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen Press Conference- Yellen said unlikely to begin normalization process for the next couple of meetings (remains data dependent). If inflation continues to run below the 2% inflation rate goal, it could hold rates lower for a considerable amount of time... with Asset purchase program wound down in October, it seemed less meaningful to reference a rate increase that is based on even in the past; new language focuses on data dependency.
Upcoming Economic Data:
  • Weekly Initial Claims due out Thursday at 8:30 (Briefing.com consensus of 292K; Last Week was 294K)
  • Weekly Continuing Claims due out Thursday at 8:30 (consensus of 2.510 M ; Last Week was 2.514 M )
  • December Philadelphia Fed due out Thursday at 10:00 (consensus of 26.0; November was 40.8)
  • November Leading Indicators due out Thursday at 10:00 (consensus of 0.5%; October was 0.9%)

>>> Dassault Aviation Reveals First Falcon 8X

Dassault Aviation Reveals First Falcon 8X 
- Dassault Aviation today rolled back the curtains on the ultra long range Falcon 8X, the company's new flagship and the latest addition to the growing Falcon business jet family.
- Unveiled at Dassault's Bordeaux-Merignac facility before an audience of customers, operators, industrial partners and representatives of certification authorities, the 8X will offer the greatest range and the longest cabin in the Falcon line, along with the most extensive selection of cabin configurations available on any executive jet.
- Announced in May of this year at European Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition (EBACE), the Falcon 8X builds on the advanced performance and technological prowess of the popular 7X long range trijet, the most innovative and fastest selling Falcon ever. The 8X will offer a range of 6,450 nm (11,945 km) - and a cabin 3.5 feet longer than the 7X while affording the same low operating economics and remarkable operating flexibility for which all Falcons are known.

>>> Fed Chair Janet Yellen Press Conference- Says unlikely to begin normailizati

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Press Conference- Says unlikely to begin normailization process for the next couple of meetings 

If inflation continues to run below the 2% inflation rate goal, it could hold rates lower for a considerable amount of time... with Asset purchase program wound down in October, it seemed less meaningful to reference a rate increase that is based on even in the past; new language focuses on data dependency...

>>> FOMC Statement for December 17

FOMC Statement for December 17

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat further; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. The Committee sees this guidance as consistent with its previous statement that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program in October, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher, who believed that, while the Committee should be patient in beginning to normalize monetary policy, improvement in the U.S. economic performance since October has moved forward, further than the majority of the Committee envisions, the date when it will likely be appropriate to increase the federal funds rate; Narayana Kocherlakota, who believed that the Committee's decision, in the context of ongoing low inflation and falling market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, created undue downside risk to the credibility of the 2 percent inflation target; and Charles I. Plosser, who believed that the statement should not stress the importance of the passage of time as a key element of its forward guidance and, given the improvement in economic conditions, should not emphasize the consistency of the current forward guidance with previous statements.

(BFW) U.K. Airport Staff Vote in Favor of Strike Dec. 23-24: ITV


U.K. Airport Staff Vote in Favor of Strike Dec. 23-24: ITV
2014-12-17 18:12:56.584 GMT


By Clementine Fletcher
(Bloomberg) -- Unite union says members employed by Dnata
at Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester airports voted by more than
4 to 1 in favor of walkouts on pay, ITV reports.
* Union has about 460 members working in check-in, driving and
cargo handling, ITV says



For Related News and Information:
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To contact the reporter on this story:
Clementine Fletcher in London at +1-212-617-4132 or
cfletcher5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Clyde Eltzroth at +1-212-617-1879 or
celtzroth1@bloomberg.net
Clementine Fletcher

>>> Interesting piece on Crude Oil - you need to have a look


  •   For a good portion of this year (down to $64 in particular) we have had a bearish view on Oil.

  •   On 10 December we published a note stating that we believed Oil could bottom out this week. We have refreshed this below

  •   A big part of this view has been predicated on our assertion that 2014 is “1998 lite” when: Oil fell during the period of local market stress; we saw the Russian default and economic collapse; the S&P fell 22% into October; yields fell sharply into October; we saw a correction of USD strength into October etc. As we know despite all this the Fed was raising rates in June 1999.

  •   We have taken this focus a little further and looked at periods where Oil has fallen “precipitously” and hit its low in December of that year.(Which it did in 1998) Outside of this year there have been 3 such instances going back over the past 30 years. The statistics on these are interesting and noted below.

41% as of today

Bottom line: We hold with our view that a base is forming this month in Crude Oil and that we will see a significant rally next year. If the history above is a guide we will likely bottom out in the coming days and finish the year close to $62.