(BFW) PartnerRe Rejects Exor Offer, Ends Talks, to Pay Special Div.

BUS 05/04 10:30 PartnerRe Reaffirms Its Commitment to the Merger with AXIS Capital
BFW 05/04 10:32 *PARTNERRE REJECTS $130/SHR PROPOSAL FROM EXOR
BN 05/04 10:32 *PARTNERRE:MADE NUMEROUS ATTEMPTS TO NEGOTIATE ON PRICE W/ EXOR
BN 05/04 10:31 *PARTNERRE REJECTS $130/SHR PROPOSAL FROM EXOR
BN 05/04 10:30 *PARTNERRE: REJECTS EXOR PROPOSAL, TERMINATES TALKS
BN 05/04 10:30 *PARTNERRE REJECTS EXOR PROPOSAL & TERMINATES TALKS
BN 05/04 10:30 *PARTNERRE HOLDERSEE TO GET SPECIAL DIV 11.50 PER COMMON SHARE
BN 05/04 10:30 *PARTNERRE HOLDERS TO GET SPECIAL DIV $11.50/SHR ON CLOSING
BN 05/04 10:30 *PARTNERRE HOLDERSEE TO GET SPEICAL DIV
BFW 05/04 10:30 *PARTNERRE REAFFIRMS COMMITMENT TO MERGER WITH AXIS CAPITAL
BN 05/04 10:30 *PARTNERRE REPORTS ENHANCED MERGER TERMS
BN 05/04 10:30 *PARTNERRE REAFFIRMS COMMITMENT TO MERGER WITH AXIS CAPITAL
BN 05/04 10:30 *PARTNERRE REAFFIRMS COMMITMENT TO MERGER W/ AXIS CAPITAL
PartnerRe Rejects Exor Offer, Ends Talks, to Pay Special Div.
2015-05-04 10:33:21.759 GMT


By Andrew Cinko
(Bloomberg) -- PartnerRe reject unsolicited proposal by
EXOR (worth $130/shr); to pay special div. $11.50/shr.
Statement:Link
Link to Company News:{3343895Z BH <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{AXS US <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{EXO IM <Equity> CN <GO>}
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To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Andrew Cinko at +1-609-279-4533 or
cinko@bloomberg.net

(Kepler-Cheuvreux) Nokia - Upgrade from Reduce to Buy, TP from €6 to €9

* Upgrade from Reduce to Buy, TP lifted from EUR6 to EUR9

We upgrade the stock from Reduce to Buy to align our rating with our positive view on the combined Nokia/Alcatel-Lucent entity. We lift our TP from EUR6 to EUR9. The shares have dropped by more than 20% since the announcement of the merger project with Alcatel-Lucent, and the riskreward is now becoming fairly attractive with massive 50% upside ahead.

* Networks impacted by multiple negative factors in Q1
Nokia delivered weak margins in networks in Q1 (only 3.2%, down 610bps YOY) due to multiple negative factors coming altogether in Q1, including: 1) lower software sales (down 500bps YOY in the mix, due to lower core
networking and software sales in Japan and the US); 2) the short-term impact of strategic entry deals, particularly in China (large upfront costs but good long-term margins); 3) lower margins in services due to a negative mix (more network rollouts) and a big impact on system integration due to significantly lower very high-margin business coming from one specific customer; 4) higher opex due to a stronger US dollar and investments in new technologies (4G, 5G, Cloud); and 5) more challenging market conditions.

* Networks margin to gradually rebound in coming quarters
CEO Suri seems confident about improving margins materially in the coming quarters and reaching the mid-point of long-term margin guidance in networks this year (close to 9.5% vs. 12.2% last year) as: 1) some negative impacts in Q1 should gradually ease by H2 (higher capacity upgrades, lower impact from strategic entry deals, lower opex increase, higher SI sales thanks to large deal wins); 2) sales should remain strong in coming quarters (+4% LFL this year, as the group still has a high win rate); 3) the group has just launched an expanded software up-sell programme targeting its top 100 customers to boost software revenue; and 4) an acceleration of cost cutting (discretionary and overhead, COGS, R&D). We have cut our networks margin estimate to 9.5% this year (vs. 10.5% previously) and have materially increased the contribution from technologies. We have lifted EPS by 7-8% over 2015-17E.

* Upgrade from Reduce to Buy, TP lifted from EUR6 to EUR9
We upgrade the stock from Reduce to Buy to align our rating with our positive view on the combined Nokia/Alcatel-Lucent entity (see our note from 16 April). The new entity will have leading positions in key markets and benefit from an excellent products-geo fit, larger scale effects, a credible synergies target and relatively limited execution risk. We lift our TP up from EUR6 to EUR9 (18- 20x our EUR0.55 EPS for 2017, discounted back today). Accordingly, we remove Nokia from our Least Preferred Stocks in the sector.

(BofA-ML) The Flow Show - Equities Outflows -$1.8b, Small Inflows in Europe

>>> Asset Class Flows
- Equities: modest $1.8bn outflows (note $2.7bn mutual fund outflows vs $0.9bn ETF inflows) 
- Bonds: $5.2bn inflows (17 straight weeks) 
- Precious metals: $0.9bn inflows (largest in 13 weeks)

>>> Equity Flows
- EM: $1.5bn outflows (outflows in 9 out of past 10 weeks) 
- Europe: small $0.4bn inflows (16 straight weeks, but weakest inflows in 15 weeks…faltering momentum) 
- US: $4.5bn outflows (outflows in 10 out of past 11 weeks) 
- Japan: 10 straight weeks of inflows ($0.8bn)

>>> Fixed Income Flows 
- 71 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($4.3bn) 
- 7 straight weeks of inflows to TIPS funds ($0.3bn) 
- $1.0bn inflows to EM debt funds (largest in 9 weeks) 
- $0.6bn outflows from HY bond funds (largest outflows in 14 weeks) 
- $0.3bn outflows from govt/tsy funds (first outflows in 8 weeks)

--> Weekly flows: buyers’ strike in equities (outflows in 5 out of past 6 weeks) vs 17 straight weeks of bond inflows ($5bn inflows this week). 

--> Notable flows: largest inflows to precious metals in 13 weeks ($0.9bn); weakest European equity inflow in 15 weeks ($0.4bn); largest EM debt inflow in 9 weeks ($1.0bn); biggest HY outflow in 14 weeks ($0.6bn); US equities redemptions in 10 out of past 11 weeks.

(Betaville) Hotel Buzz - part 3 ...Next round o f consolidation in the Hotel sec

Hotel Buzz - part 3


A friendly analyst has got in touch with his view on what the likely combinations are from the next round of consolidation in the hotel sector. I will list them below - to be clear, this is just his speculation...

1. Accor combining with either Marriott International or Whitbread

2. InterContinential Hotels merging with Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide

3. Marriott International combining with Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide

4. Hilton Worldwide Holdings buying Accor

To reiterate, this is just an analyst's view on how the consolidation might play out.

>>> What to look at today ( & this Week End) - 5th of May 2015

Dow+1,02% S&P+1,09% Nasdaq+1,29% Russell+0,65%
US MArket closed Higher after a weak week. Session was queit with S&P Bouncing above its 50d MA on the first hour and holding it the all session. Nine of ten sectors posted gains with materials (+1.7%) ending the day and the week (+2.0%) ahead of the remaining sectors. Today, the growth-sensitive group received support from Monsanto as the stock spiked 3.9% after Bloomberg reported the company has approached Syngenta about a potential takeover. Outside of energy, the financial sector (+0.8%) was the only other cyclical group that ended the day behind the broader market. Meanwhile, the top-weighted technology sector (+1.5%) outperformed even as LinkedIn plunged 18.6% after its cautious guidance overshadowed a one-cent beat. However, LinkedIn's weakness was offset by most large cap names with the likes of Apple, Oracle, and Intel gaining between 1.7% and 3.0%...China April final HSBC manufacturing PMI posted 48.9, missing consensus of 49.4, as largest contraction for one year with total new orders declining at the strongest pace for a year while production levels stagnated. The weak results bolstered chances that PBoC to further ease monetary policy. Separately, Chinese press printed opinion piece suggesting the window for both interest rates and RRR cuts is approaching but anther QE is unnecessary to deal with downturn pressure now. Most Asian markets resume after holidays. Shanghai composite deepened decline by 1.1% after HSBC data but changed into positive territory afterwards. China developers rally with improving results in April. For the first time over a decade, IMF is close to declare Yuan is fairly priced, shifting to counter the Obama administration view that Yuan is "significantly undervalued". South Korea President comments economy shows positive signs of recovery while New Zealand Prime Minister Key sees it will take longer time to return to budget surplus.

Nikkei +0.06% Hang Seng +0.13% Shanghai +0.56%

Eur$ 1.1215 RUB $51.6765 EURCHF 1.0465 CHF 0.9332 WTI $59.13 (-0.03%)

S&P -0.08% EuroStoxx -0.08% Dax +0.22% SMI +0.28%


Macro :
- HSBC China April Manufacturing PMI 48.9; Est. 49.4
- ECB Representatives to Sit on Boards of Banks, El Pais Reports
- Icahn Says BlackRock’s Fink Makes Fixing Bad Businesses Harder
- Greek Aid Talks Gain Urgency as Breakthrough Remains Elusive
- Greece Willing to Consider Single VAT Rate in Debt Talks: FAS
- Iran Expects First Draft of Nuclear Deal Within Days
- Buffett Says Euro in Its Present Form Won’t Work
- Buffett Says Berkshire Will Buy German Co. in Next Five Years

Keep an eye on :
- ADS GY : Adidas CEO Opposes Selling Off Reebok as Separate Company: FAS
- ALV GY : Allianz to Join Bid for London Sewer Project, Sunday Times Says
- AMS SM : Japan Airlines to Use Amadeus Cloud Computing System: Nikkei
- AREVA FP : Areva Weighs Selling Stake to Chinese Energy Companies, JDD Says
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas May Move Geneva Back-Office Jobs to Portugal: Temps
- BRE IM : Brembo May Consider Acquisitions in Automotive, Aerospace: Sole
- BT/ LN : BT to Submit EE Acquisition Case to Regulators, FT Says (Yday)
- AM FP : Hollande Arrives in Qatar to Sign Dassault Contract, AFP Says
- AM FP : Dassault CEO Says More Contracts Possible in 2015, Figaro Says
- DGE LN : Diageo Considering sale of portions of its wine operations - Sky News - Has been approached by potential buyers of its global wine operations, including Blossom Hill and Sterling Vineyards. Wine brands only account for 4% of Diageo's sales.
- EDF FP : EDF’s Nuclear Energy Prices Won’t Rise on July 1, Les Echos Says
- F US : Ford Abandons Plans for Car Seats That Detect Heart Attacks: FT
- HSBA LN : HSBC May Set Aside Funds for Additional Fines, Telegraph Says
- IBM US : IBM - Warren Buffett: bought more IBM during Q1 - CNBC Buffett declines to say how much more he bought but said the exact numbers will be in the company's SEC quarterly holdings filing (as of the end of Q1) due around the middle of this month. Berkshire held 7.8% as of Dec 31, making it the top institutional holder.
- KPN NA : KPN Is Logical Takeover Target in the Long Run, CEO Tells FD
- KPN NA : KPN CEO Blok, CFO De Jager Buy Co. Shares: Regulatory Filings
- KPN NA : KPN chief not averse to merger with Proximus - Financieele Dagblad
- NEX FP : Amber Backs Nexans Cost-Cutting Strategy, Les Echos Says
- NEX LN : National Express Set for Rhine-Ruhr-Express Tender: Rheinische
- OCR US : Omnicare attracts interest of Walgreens Boots Alliance
- ORA FP : Orange Will Need to Give Up Jazztel ADSL Network, El Pais Says
- ORA FP : Orange Faces French Tax Control Procedure, Le Parisien Says
- RNO FP : Nissan U.K. Plant at Risk if Country Quits EU: Sunday Times
- REP SM : Repsol Announces New Natural Gas Discovery in Bolivia
- SAP GY : SAP denies press report about talks with CRM; says never considered acquiring Salesforce.com
- SIE GY : Siemens Investigated in China for Alleged Bribery: Reuters
- SKG LN : Smurfit Kappa CEO says company open to takeover; International Paper looking at making bid
- STL NO : Statoil interested in acquisitions - Dagens Naeringsliv
- TSCO LN : Tesco turns down GBP 4bn offer for South Korean operations from Carlyle
- TETY SS : Tethys Petroleum hires advisor, expands strategic review
- FP FP : Total to Pay French Tax on 2015 Profits, Usine Nouvelle Says
- UBSN VX : UBS to Pay Up to CHF1b in FX Probe This Month: Sonntagszeitung
- VOD LN : Vodafone, EE Said to Sell Weve Stakes to O2: The Times

>>> Ira Sohn Conference: Monday Presentation Schedule


Ira Sohn Conference: Monday Presentation Schedule

The Sohn Conference is set to take place this next Monday-Tuesday in New York, NY and will give a variety of investment managers the opportunity to speak about their view on markets, positions, etc.... A breakdown of the Monday speaker list is detailed below, with associated, notable stocks and notes listed for each manager. Stocks listed have a positional relationship to the speaker and may be subject to commentary: (Please see criteria and commentary below the following list)
  • David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital) - 
    • Is Long MU (14.54%), AAPL (12.67%), SUNE (6.47%) and CNX (5.96%) 
    • Is Short RAI (Unknown) 
    • Recently Added AER (1.93%), CBI (1.64%), GM (Unknown)
    • Note: Positions sourced directly from Greenlight's Shareholder Letter
  • Barry Rosenstein (Jana Partners) - 
    • Is Long PETM (6.86%), HTZ (7.56%) and QCOM (3.99%) 
    • Is Short XLE (6.89%) and SPY (4.46%) 
    • Recently Added NCR (3.05%) 
    • Note: Most recent headlines include positions in QCOM and HTZ
  • Keith Meister (Corvex Management) - 
    • Is Long WMB (22.98%), ARCP (0.89%)
    • Is Short XLE (6.89%)
    • Recently Added SIG (8.9%)
    • Note: Media speculation today implied that Corvex has taken a recent top-5 shareholder stake in YUM. These reports are presently unconfirmed and speculative
  • Leon Cooperman (Glenview Capital Management) - 
    • Is Long ATLS (3.03%), SHPG (1.68%), ASPS (1.27%) and GILD (0.96%)
    • Note: Each listed position above has been the topic of direct/peripheral discussion in recent months
  • Larry Robbins (Glenview Capital Management) - 
    • Is Long CYH (3.26%), RLGY (1.39%), WOOF (3.12%), FNF (0.36%)
    • Note: Each stock listed above was recently included in a media piece as being one of Robbins' "top new ideas"
  • Mala Gaonkar (Lone Pine Capital) -
    • Is Long ADK (228%), PCLN (91%), FB (56%) and MA (32%)
    • Note: % represent the fund's Q/Q change from Q3 to Q4 (not % of portfolio) and is included to show recent fund capital flow
  • Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine Capital) - 
    • Notes: Provides regular macro-economic commentary in media pieces, and runs a fixed income fund. Has been known to make interest rate predictions that can affect a variety of markets.
  • David Tepper (Appaloosa Management) -
    • Long GM (12.65%) and TX (1.14%)
    • Note: TX was one of only two (excluding GM warrants) of Appaloosa's Q/Q increased equity positions from Q3 to Q4
  • Bill Ackman (Pershing Square Capital Management) - 
    • Is Long ZTS (11.15%) and VRX (Unknown) 
    • Is Short HLF 
    • Note: VRX was disclosed as a new position this past quarter, and its weight in the portfolio is not yet known. Also, speculation about another short, in addition to HLF, within the portfolio is intriguing. The existence or identity of such a short is unknown yet however.

  1. (% in quotations, refer to the percentage of a manager's portfolio that a given stock represents- as of end 4Q15. Lone Pine Capital being the exception)
  2. The use of an (Unkown) denotes a new position since Q4 disclosure or other factor that does not allow for reliable portfolio calculation
  3. Positions for inclusion were determined using several criteria. Notably, sizeable positions (+5%) with either recent media mention/inclusion or a substantive Q/Q increase were targeted for analysis. 
    • Positions that are notably smaller than 5% were included based upon recent media focus or for outlying Q/Q increases. 
  4. Positions listed for each manager above, do not represent the entirety or proportionality of their respective fund's composition.