WSJ : Investment Firm 3G Capital Eyes Next Targets


Investment Firm 3G Capital Eyes Next Targets
With New $5 Billion From Investors, Brazil’s Buyout Kings Start to Shop Around

Brazilian investment firm 3G Capital Partners LP has used relentless ambition and big-name connections to become one of the world’s biggest acquirers of companies, including H.J. Heinz Co. and Tim Hortons Inc.

Now the firm is setting its sights on potential new targets that could give it control of even more of the world’s best-known consumer brands. In the past several weeks, investors have pledged about $5 billion to a new takeover fund being formed by 3G, according to people familiar with the matter.

3G hasn’t publicly disclosed the amount raised or what it plans to do with the money, but 3G usually seeks only what it needs in equity for individual deals, using borrowed money to at least quadruple the firm’s buying power.

In a sign of the investment firm’s aspirations, executives are discussing the possibility of trying to buy a food or beverage company such as Campbell Soup Co. , worth about $14 billion, or even PepsiCo Inc., which has a stock-market value of $140 billion, say people familiar with the situation.

People close to 3G, led by former professional tennis player Jorge Paulo Lemann, caution that no decisions have been made. 3G often studies targets for years before making a move.

And because a PepsiCo deal could be four times as large as Heinz and Tim Hortons combined, 3G might pursue only pieces of PepsiCo or try to join forces with Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, these people said. Mr. Lemann, his two partners and a group of Belgian families own a controlling stake in the beer maker. PepsiCo, Campbell and AB InBev declined to comment.

Some analysts have speculated that 3G also might be interested in Kellogg Co. and Kraft Foods Group Inc., each with more than $20 billion in stock-market value. Kraft’s board of directors replaced the packaged-food giant’s chief executive last month, signaling impatience with a turnaround there, while Kellogg cut the size of payouts to some executives if the cereal maker is sold.

Some analysts saw Kellogg’s move as positioning for a possible sale. A spokeswoman says the change was made “to better align with evolving market practices.” A Kraft spokeswoman declined to comment.

The swirling interest in 3G’s next big deal is a sign of how far the firm has come in the past decade—and especially during the past few years. The purchases of Heinz and Tim Hortons for a combined $36 billion rank as the second- and fifth-largest takeovers in the consumer and retail sectors since the start of 2013, according to Dealogic.

“These guys have global ambitions,” says Warren Buffett , whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. teamed up with 3G to buy the ketchup maker. Berkshire Hathaway also provided $3 billion in financing last year for the Tim Hortons purchase by Burger King Worldwide Inc. 3G owns a 51% stake in the combined company, Restaurant Brands International Inc.

Mr. Buffett says he would work with 3G on another friendly takeover if the opportunity looks right.

3G is considered a private-equity firm but doesn’t raise money the same way most of them do. Rather than getting a huge pot of money from a large number of investors, the 75-year-old Mr. Lemann and his partners, Carlos Alberto “Beto” Sicupira and Marcel Herrmann Telles, turn to roughly three dozen of the world’s wealthiest families and individuals.

In addition to Mr. Buffett, recent investors include hedge-fund manager William Ackman, members of Colombia’s Santo Domingo family, seven-time Wimbledon men’s champion Roger Federer of Switzerland and JAB Holdings, which manages assets for Germany’s Reimann family, according to people familiar with 3G’s operations.

An investor meeting at Burger King’s headquarters in Miami after 3G took the fast-food chain private in a $3.3 billion buyout had more than 40 people, including executives from the two companies, says a person who was there. Many of the investors were people “you wouldn’t have heard of. Many of them don’t speak English,” this person adds. The group included a slice of Latin America’s wealthiest businessmen, heirs and heiresses.

Mr. Ackman, who made his reputation and fortune by agitating companies through his Pershing Square Capital Management LP hedge-fund firm, invests his personal money with 3G, where he says he is happy to keep his mouth shut.

“This is a management team that does not require shareholder activists,” Mr. Ackman says. Pershing Square owns 19% of Restaurant Brands.

Messrs. Buffett and Lemann met in 1998 as directors at Gillette Co. before the razor maker was acquired by Procter & Gamble Co. The two men stay in touch by email, occasionally have dinner in Mr. Buffett’s hometown of Omaha, Neb., and spend much of their time talking about subjects other than deals and investments, such as tennis.

“I’ve always liked him, and the more we do together, the more I like him,” Mr. Buffett, 84, says about Mr. Lemann, who he calls “Georgie.”

The Brazilian investment firm, with offices in Rio de Janeiro and New York, also has a reputation for aggressive cost-cutting at companies it acquires. Job cuts and tax wizardry boost profits and threaten rivals. Using “zero-cost budgeting,” each division of a company must justify its costs from scratch each year, not simply nudge the prior year’s budget higher.

The strategy is similar to an approach used by Mr. Lemann after he took over Brazilian brokerage firm Garantia in the 1970s and then built it into one of the country’s biggest investment banks. Credit Suisse Group AG bought Garantia for $675 million in 1998.

Mr. Lemann, who graduated from Harvard University, instituted a merit-based culture where employees could expect to advance if they excelled—but would be fired if they didn’t. He closely studied companies he admired for their operational efficiency, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and General Electric Co. , according to an unofficial biography about Mr. Lemann and his partners called “Dream Big.”

The three men still go spearfishing together regularly and own homes in the same São Paulo neighborhood. Their combined net worth is estimated at more than $40 billion.

They formed 3G in 2004, partly to test business principles developed at Garantia. Few investors knew much about the men behind 3G until Mr. Lemann helped engineer Brazilian-Belgian brewer InBev’s takeover of Budweiser-maker Anheuser-Busch Co. in 2008 for $52 billion. Anheuser-Busch InBev now sells nearly one-fifth of the world’s beer.

“Jorge Paulo plays at the end of the tennis court, with extreme patience. He waits to see the weakest side of his rival,” says Luiz Cezar Fernandes, a former partner of Mr. Lemann’s at Garantia. “He doesn’t improvise.”

At Burger King, which 3G bought in 2010, franchisees have complained about “field coaches” from the investment firm who prod franchisees about everything from cost-cutting tricks to cooking techniques. The company also has curbed small expenses such as color photocopies.

Under 3G, Burger King has shifted more profits out of the U.S. and into lower-tax countries. While 57% of the company’s revenue from 2011 to 2013 came from the U.S., just 21% of its pretax income did. Burger King’s effective tax rate averaged 26% in the same period, lower than McDonald’s Corp. and Starbucks Corp.

Tax experts say Burger King likely allocated overhead costs such as technology and personnel that would typically be spread across all of its financial statements to the U.S. The move is legal and can help businesses avoid the U.S.’s higher tax rate. Burger King wouldn’t comment.

After buying Heinz, already considered one of the food industry’s most efficient operators, 3G eliminated more than 1,000 jobs and closed factories in South Carolina and Canada. Heinz had about 32,000 employees at the time of the takeover.

The moves have led to big returns for 3G and its investors. Those who were part of the firm’s Burger King buyout have gained at least four times their original investment, people familiar with the matter say.

According to an estimate by Trian Fund Management LP, an investment firm that pushed Heinz before the takeover to slim down, the ketchup maker cut $700 million in costs in the year ended June 30 under 3G’s ownership and improved profit margins to 25% from 18%. Berkshire Hathaway owns half of Heinz but has left oversight of the business to 3G.

Before being replaced by Kraft, CEO Tony Vernon told analysts and investors that the maker of Jell-O and Cool Whip needed to do more to improve margins “with the likes of 3G now in our space.”

Analysts expect the takeover of doughnut and coffee chain Tim Hortons of Canada to result in substantial savings because Canada’s tax system is generally more favorable to multinational companies than the U.S.

Messrs. Lemann, Sicupira and Telles aren’t well-known to Brazilians outside the finance industry. In 2012, the collapse of Eike Batista’s oil and infrastructure empire made Mr. Lemann the richest man in Brazil, but he told investors he dreaded the title because it would attract more media scrutiny.

He rarely speaks to reporters and hasn’t lived full-time in Brazil since 1999, following an unsuccessful attempt by someone to kidnap three of his six children. He splits his time between Brazil, the U.S. and Switzerland, where he has citizenship.

3G attracts “an elite club” of rich families and individuals because the firm’s executives are seen as “one of their own,” according to Kevin Martins da Silva, a partner at investment bank Three Ocean Partners who works with wealthy families in Latin America.

ENLARGE
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Even though Mr. Lemann and his partners are rich enough that they could buy big companies on their own, about half the cash in 3G’s deals comes from outside investors, partly to build future “deal flow” through their investors’ contacts, people familiar with the matter say. In addition, 3G sometimes asks investors to become directors at companies acquired by the firm.

“I have had partners all my life and it has helped me a great deal,” Mr. Lemann said in “How to Make a Company Succeed in an Uncertain Country,” a book published in Brazil in 2005. “The three of us have been able to do much more than we could have done separately,” he said, referring to Mr. Telles, 64, and Mr. Sicupira, 66, who have known each other for decades.

Investors say Mr. Lemann comes across as patient and thoughtful. He inspires loyalty and silence among investors, who often refuse to discuss 3G even privately out of worries they might be evicted from the investment group.

3G likes to invest for much longer than the five- to seven-year time horizon typical of most private-equity firms. Investors say the approach is similar to how merchant banks in Europe used to invest capital alongside wealthy families, whose top goal often is creating wealth for younger generations, not short-term profits.

Investors often get just days to write their check, sometimes for as little as $10 million, say people close to 3G, and officials seldom give any clues about possible acquisition targets.

Some people close to 3G say it got more secretive after an insider-trading scandal related to Burger King. In 2012, the Securities and Exchange Commission alleged that a former broker at a Wells Fargo & Co. unit learned about the pending sale from a brokerage customer who had invested in a 3G fund.

The broker, a Brazilian citizen, allegedly bought Burger King shares before the deal was announced. 3G wasn’t accused of wrongdoing. The broker was ordered to pay $5.6 million but fled the U.S. Wells Fargo paid a $5 million fine and admitted failing to maintain adequate controls to prevent an employee from insider trading based on nonpublic information.

Investors aren’t fazed by 3G’s secrecy. One investor in the 2013 takeover of Heinz got a call from Alexandre Behring, who runs 3G on a day-to-day basis and is responsible for promoting the firm to American investors.

Mr. Behring didn’t tell the investor the name of the target, but the person signed up without even reading confidential documents offered to potential investors, according to someone familiar with the matter.

“Their thing is not investing the money for a fee,” a longtime investor says. “They choose to invest with people they know and [who] know what they do.”

Mr. Buffett said no when Mr. Lemann asked him to invest with 3G in the Burger King acquisition, but Mr. Buffett kept an eye on what 3G was doing.

When Mr. Lemann called last February to see if Mr. Buffett wanted to invest in the Tim Hortons deal, Mr. Buffett says he didn’t hesitate before saying yes.

The two men have become so close that Mr. Buffett traveled in August to Harvard for a party to celebrate Mr. Lemann’s 75th birthday.

>>> Reckitt-Benckiser sells Maison Verte, O'Cedar and Baranne assets to Mileston

Reckitt-Benckiser sells Maison Verte, O'Cedar and Baranne assets to Milestone Investisseurs

Milestone Investisseurs, the Luxembourg-based private equity firm, is pleased to announce that it has successfully completed the acquisition of three leading French household brands, Maison Verte (‘environmentally aware’ laundry care), O’Cedar (wood care) and Baranne (shoe care) from Reckitt-Benckiser, the European healthcare, household and hygiene consumer goods group, for an undisclosed consideration. A new French company, “You & Home SAS”, has been created to acquire the assets.

Further to the successful Cadum-Iba investment in personal and household care, Milestone has been looking for other potential brands to rejuvenate and develop in France. Milestone has been working with Reckitt-Benckiser since October 2013 on this transaction. Baranne and O’Cédar are iconic French brands with a 100-year and 60-year history respectively, both leaders in their respective markets in the mass retail sales channel in France, while Maison Verte is a pioneer brand in the ‘environmentally aware’ household market with a strong brand awareness in France.

Milestone provided circa EUR 29m of equity and mezzanine funding and Credit Lyonnais, Societe Generale and Banque Populaire provided senior debt facilities for an un-disclosed amount. Milestone has become the majority shareholder of the newly created company “You & Home”.

You & Home is led by a highly experienced management team who shall be formally disclosed and announced in January 2015 and including a number of ex-Cadum executives. Jacques Deret, the former non-executive Chairman of Cadum International SA and Operating Partner at Milestone, has been appointed non-executive chairman of the new group.

Jacques Deret, Non-Executive Chairman of You & Home said: «You & Home becomes the new home for French household brands with un-tapped potential and who have been neglected by large groups over the years. In fact, these three well known family brands have remained very closed to the French consumers over the years. Those brands are well distributed in mass market trade, with fair or high market shares in their respective segments. They represent a great opportunity for the new management team to rejuvenate, extend and better support them to regain growth, create new values and benefits for all stake holders and new generations of consumers».

Olivier Antomarchi, Partner of Milestone commented: «This opportunity is the conclusion of a one-year long relationship with Reckitt-Benckiser to build a portfolio of famous sleeping assets with strong brand equity. It demonstrates Milestone’s ability to work in partnership with large corporates, building trust over time and delivering on our commitments. We are delighted to back a very experienced management team including members of the Cadum team».

You & Home’s deal team:
Milestone: Olivier Antomarchi, Claire Gomard, Jacques Deret
Senior Lenders: Crédit Lyonnais (Bernard Bullet, Rym Kahldi) as Senior Agent, Société Générale (Renan Fleitour), Banque Populaire (Olivier Grisard)

Milestone’s legal advisers:
Travers Smith (Will Howard)
Jeantet (Philippe Matignon, Pascal Georges)

Milestone’s due diligence team:
Constantin (Financial DD): Jean-Paul Séguret, Denis Cyrille
AMR (Commercial DD): Florent Jarry
Cobalt (Human Capital DD): Sabine Gardener, Maelenn Natral

>>> US Close Dow -0,74% S&P -0,89% Nasdaq -1,29% Russell -1,70%

Closing Market Summary: Greece and Oil Keep Market Under Pressure

Equity indices ended the Tuesday session in the red with the Russell 2000 (-1.7%) pacing the retreat. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lost 0.9% with eight sectors registering losses.

The stock market held up relatively well through the first hour of action, but the return of some recent concerns pressured cyclical sectors and the broader market into negative territory. Specifically, the S&P 500 reversed from its session high after The Financial Times reported, citing Oxford Economics research, that Syriza party in Greece is on track to win enough votes that would translate into a mandate to push back against austerity policies imposed by the European Union. In addition to hitting U.S. stocks, the news knocked European markets off their highs and set a fire under U.S. Treasuries. The resulting safe-haven flows underpinned Treasuries, sending the benchmark 10-yr yield lower by seven basis points to 1.96% after marking a low just under the 1.89% level.

However, the market had more to contend with than just the update regarding Greece. Namely, crude oil continued its sharp down trend while fund manager Bill Gross of Janus Capital published his investment outlook for 2015, which revealed that Mr. Gross expects negative returns from ‘many' asset classes. This disclosure wasn't entirely new, considering Mr. Gross was quoted by Reuters yesterday as saying "Be prepared for low returns in almost all asset categories."

As for oil, the energy component was little changed in early overnight action, but began slipping just ahead of the opening bell in Europe. Crude was unable to pull away from its overnight low, extending its decline to 4.0% at $48.10/bbl. The commodity ended the pit session down 10.5% from its 2014 close.

Meanwhile, the energy sector (-1.3%) settled near the bottom of the leaderboard, only ahead of financials (-1.5%). Major energy components like ConocoPhillips (COP 62.93, -2.71), EOG Resources (EOG 84.20, -2.48) and Schlumberger (SLB 81.72, -1.63) lost between 2.0% and 4.1% while Dow members Chevron (CVX 108.03, -0.05) and ExxonMobil (XOM 89.81, -0.48) outperformed.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector (-0.9%) also spent the day among the laggards. For the second day in a row, transport stocks were partially responsible for the underperformance as the Dow Jones Transportation Average lost 1.7%. FedEx (FDX 169.79, -0.01) was unable to hold its intraday gain, ending flat, after UBS upgraded the logistics company to ‘Buy.' As for the Transportation Average, the bellwether complex is now down 4.3% after the first two sessions of the week.

The S&P 500 was able to reclaim about a third of its decline during afternoon action with countercyclical sectors lending some support. Consumer staples (unch) and health care (-0.3%) outperformed while the two smallest sectors by weight—telecom services (+0.4%) and utilities (+0.1%)—spent the bulk of the session in positive territory.

Today's participation was well ahead of average with more than 915 million shares changing hands at the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Economic data was limited to Factory Orders and ISM Services:
  • Factory orders posted their fourth consecutive monthly decline, falling 0.7% in November which was worse than the 0.4% decline expected by the consensus 
    • The October reading was left unrevised at -0.7% 
    • Orders for durable goods declined 0.9%, which was more than a previously reported 0.7% decline. Nondurable goods orders, meanwhile, declined 0.5% 
    • Shipments, which factor into GDP growth, declined 0.6% in November on top of a 0.9% decline in October 
  • The ISM Services Index for December fell to 56.2 from 59.3 while the consensus expected a downtick to 58.5 
    • The dip in December was driven by a pullback in all index categories with two indices falling into contraction: 
      • Backlog of Orders Index fell to 49.5 from 55.5 
      • Prices Index fell to 49.5 from 54.4 
Tomorrow the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while the December ADP Employment Change report (consensus 230K) will cross the wires at 8:15 ET. The November trade deficit (consensus $41.80 billion) will be reported at 8:30 ET while the FOMC Minutes from the December meeting will be released at 14:00 ET.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.5% YTD 
  • S&P 500 -2.7% YTD 
  • Nasdaq Composite -3.0% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 -3.6% YTD

WSJ : Verizon Has More Pressing Calls to Make Than AOL

Verizon Has More Pressing Calls to Make Than AOL

There Are Better Ways to Use Carrier’s Capital

Not long ago, the idea of Verizon Communications buying AOL would have been laughed right off Wall Street. Today, it falls within the realm of possibility.

Investors were atwitter Tuesday morning over reports that such a deal might be in the works. That shows how far AOL has come in terms of redefining itself as a company focused on the automated buying and selling of ads, particularly ads for online video, and not just the parent of a fading dial-up business. But it also demonstrates the view that telecom and television will continue to converge.

Given the popularity of streaming services like Netflix and recent moves by networks such as HBO and distributors like Dish Network to offer online-only subscriptions, it seems inevitable that the future of TV involves more people watching content over the Internet. And given the rapid increase in the amount of time spent on mobile devices, more of that content will almost certainly be delivered wirelessly.

Indeed, it is no secret that telecom companies see video as the next frontier. AT&T used the possibility of an over-the-top video offering to wireless subscribers to help justify its pending deal to buy DirecTV . So Verizon making an acquisition that might bolster efforts to monetize online video could make some sense.

Still, buying a content and advertising company may be putting the cart before the horse.

For Verizon, perhaps the most important aspect of preparing for a mobile-video future is making sure its network can support it. That would suggest it might be better served investing in its network or buying more wireless spectrum. And if the government’s soon-to-end auction for spectrum is any guide, doing so could require much of Verizon’s financial firepower. Buying AOL, while plausible, looks like less of a priority.

Fwd:>>> SPX - Quick Chart - held the support levels inidcated yest.

Support Broken, should trade lower and test lower levels 1975/1982...200d MA 1960

From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LLP) At: Jan 6 2015 08:59:02
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LLP)
Subject: Fwd:>>> SPX - Quick Chart - held the support levels inidcated yest.
>>> SPX - Quick Chart - held the support levels indicated yest., appears to be a strong level...will watch it closely, if we break these levels, we should test Dec lows ~1982/1975

FT : Syriza set for "decisive victory" - report

Hearing that this article is pushing mkt lower

No wonder the markets are rattled over Greece.
Forecasting group Oxford Economics says it has carried out an "in-depth" analysis of opinion polls ahead of Greece's snap general election on January 25, which shows that the radical Syriza party is on course to win a "clear mandate" to push through anti-austerity policies.
Renewed concerns over a possible "Grexit" are one of the main factors behind a flight to safety in the markets, with yields on 10-year German bunds falling to a new all-time low today.
Syriza has pledged to renegotiate the terms of Greece's bail-out programme if it seizes power.
The German government yesterday sought to play down speculation that Greece would exit the eurozone if Syriza wins power but investors remain nervous - and with good reason if the Oxford Economics is anything to go by.
Its analysis shows that Syriza's support is sufficient to secure a workable majority in Greece.The report says:
36% of the final vote is the approximate threshold beyond which a strong anti-austerity government is plausible. Syriza's performance has been consistent with this in each of the last 20 opinion polls, and over 40% of the vote on average in the last five.
The report, written by Oxford Economics' Gabriel Sterne, points out that the ruling New Democracy party could close the gap, if a tactic pays off to portray the election as effectively a referendum on an exit from the euro.
But Mr Sterne adds:
But the binary (in or out) nature of the vote decision may also help Syriza to achieve a decisive victory by squeezing out smaller parties (eg. Independent Greeks), as voters herd to the big two.

(Janus Cap.) Bill Gross - January Outlook "Ides"

"Be cautious and content with low positive returns in 2015. The time for risk taking has passed. "
" The power of additional and cheaper credit to add to economic growth and financial asset bull markets has been underappreciated by investors since 1981."


Full Comment
A January Investment Outlook should normally be filled with recommended “do’s and
don’ts,” “picks and pans” and December 31, 2015, forecasts for interest rates and risk
assets. I shall do all of that as usual when I travel to New York City for the annual Barron’s
Roundtable in a few weeks’ time. That is always an opportunity for me to engage in verbal
jousting with Marc Faber, Mario Gabelli and the usual bearish forecast from the Gnome
of Zurich, Felix Zulauf. So I’ll leave the specific forecasting for a few weeks’ time and
sum it up in a few quick sentences for now: Beware the Ides of March, or the Ides of any
month in 2015 for that matter. When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of
returns for many asset classes. The good times are over.
Timing the end of an asset bull market is nearly always an impossible task, and that
is one reason why most market observers don’t do it. The other reason is that most
investors are optimists by historical experience or simply human nature, and it never
serves their business interests to forecast a decline in the price of the product that they
sell. Nevertheless, there comes a time when common sense must recognize that the king
has no clothes, or at least that he is down to his Fruit of the Loom briefs, when it
comes to future expectations for asset returns. Now is that time and hopefully the next
12 monthly “Ides” will provide some air cover for me in terms of an inflection point.
2015
Introduced by Janus Capital International Limited2
Manias can outlast any forecaster because they are driven not only by rational inputs,
but by irrational human expressions of fear and greed. Knowing when the “crowd” has
had enough is an often frustrating task, and it behooves an individual with a reputation
at stake to stand clear. As you know, however, moving out of the way has never been my
style so I will stake my claim with as much logic as possible and hope to persuade you
to lower expectations for future returns over the next 12 months.
My investment template shares a lot in common with, and owes credit to, the similar
templates of Martin Barnes of the Bank Credit Analyst and Ray Dalio of Bridgewater
Associates. All three of us share a belief in a finance-driven economic cycle which over
time moves to excess both on the upside and the downside. For the past few decades,
the secular excess has been on the upside with rapid credit growth, lower interest rates
and tighter risk spreads dominating the long-term trend. There have been dramatic
reversals as with the Lehman Brothers collapse, the Asia/dot-com crisis around the turn
of the century, and of course 1987’s one-day crash, but each reversal was met with a
new and increasingly innovative monetary policy initiative on the part of the central banks
that kept the bull market in asset prices alive.
Consistently looser regulatory policies contributed immensely as well. The Bank Credit
Analyst labels this history as the “debt supercycle,” which is as descriptive as it gets.
Each downward spike in the economy and its related financial markets was met with
additional credit expansion generated by lower interest rates, financial innovation and
regulatory easing, or more recently, direct central bank purchasing of assets labeled
“Quantitative Easing.” The power of additional and cheaper credit to add to economic
growth and financial asset bull markets has been underappreciated by investors since
1981. Even with the recognition of the Minsky Moment in 2008 and his commonsensical
reflection that “stability ultimately leads to instability,” investors have continued to
assume that monetary (and at times fiscal) policy could contain the long-term business
cycle and produce continuing prosperity for investors in a multitude of asset classes
both domestically and externally in emerging markets.
There comes a time, however, when zero-based, and in some cases negative yields, fail
to generate sufficient economic growth. While such yields almost automatically result
in higher bond prices and escalating P/E ratios, their effect on real growth diminishes
or in some cases, reverses. Corporate leaders, sensing structural changes in consumer
demand, become willing borrowers, but primarily to reduce their own outstanding
shares as opposed to investing in the real economy. Demographics, technology,
and globalization reversals in turn have promoted a sense of “secular stagnation” as
economist and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers calls it and the “New Normal”
as I labeled it as early as 2009. The Alice in Wonderland fact of the matter is that at the
zero bound for interest rates, expected Returns on Investment (ROI) and Returns on
Equity (ROE) are capped at increasingly low levels. The private sector becomes less
willing to take a chance with their owners’ money in a real economy that has a lack of
aggregate demand as its dominant theme. Making money by borrowing at no cost for
investment in the real economy sounds like a no-brainer. But, it comes with increasing
risk in an environment of secular stagnation, demand uncertainty, and with the ROI
closer to zero itself than an entrepreneur is willing to bear.
Investment Outlook | January 2015

And so the miracle of the debt supercycle meets a logical end when yields, asset
prices and the increasing amount of credit place an unreasonable burden on the
balancing scale of risk and return. Too little return for too much risk. As the real
economy of developed and developing nations sputter, so too eventually do financial
markets. The timing – as mentioned previously – is never certain but the inevitable
outcome is commonsensically sound. If real growth in most developed and highly
levered economies cannot be normalized with monetary policy at the zero bound,
then investors will ultimately seek alternative havens. Not immediately, but at the
margin, credit and assets are exchanged for figurative and sometimes literal money
in a mattress. As it does, the system delevers, as cash at the core or real assets at
the exterior become the more desirable holding. The secular fertilization of credit
creation and the wonders of the debt supercycle may cease to work as intended
at the zero bound.
Comprehending (or proving) this can be as frustrating as understanding the
differences between Newtonian and quantum physics and the possibility that
the same object can be in two places at the same time. Central banks with their
historical models do not yet comprehend the impotence of credit creation on the
real economy at the zero bound. Increasingly, however, it is becoming obvious that
as yields move closer and closer to zero, credit increasingly behaves like cash and
loses its multiplicative power of monetary expansion for which the fractional reserve
system was designed.
Finance – instead of functioning as a building block of the real economy – breaks
it down. Investment is discouraged rather than encouraged due to declining
ROIs and ROEs. In turn, financial economy asset class structures such as money
market funds, banking, insurance, pensions, and even household balance sheets
malfunction as the historical returns necessary to justify future liabilities become
impossible to attain. Yields for savers become too low to meet liabilities. Both the
real and the finance-based economies become threatened with the zero-based,
nearly free money available for the taking. It’s as if the rules of finance, like the
quantum rules of particles, have reversed or at least negated what we historically
believed to be true.
And so that is why – at some future date – at some future Ides of March or May
or November 2015, asset returns in many categories may turn negative. What to
consider in such a strange new world? High-quality assets with stable cash flows.
Those would include Treasury and high-quality corporate bonds, as well as equities
of lightly levered corporations with attractive dividends and diversified revenues both
operationally and geographically. With moments of liquidity having already been
experienced in recent months, 2015 may see a continuing round of musical chairs
as riskier asset categories become less and less desirable.
Debt supercycles in the process of reversal are not favorable events for future
investment returns. Father Time in 2015 is not the babe with a top hat in our opening
cartoon. He is the grumpy old codger looking forward to his almost inevitable “Ides”
sometime during the next 12 months. Be cautious and content with low positive
returns in 2015. The time for risk taking has passed.