>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of May 2015

>>> Up
*BUNZL RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*DEUTZ RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*INFINEON RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT HSBC
*LAFARGE RAISED TO MARKET PERFORM AT SANFORD BERNSTEIN
*POSTNL RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT CITI
*RATIONAL RAISED TO HOLD VS REDUCE AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX

>>> Down
*FLUGHAFEN ZURICH CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*JC DECAUX CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT ODDO
*TUI CUT TO NEUTRAL VS ACCUMULATE AT EQUINET


>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*PREMIER OIL RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES, PT 165P
*REFRESCO GERBER RATED NEW BUY AT HSBC, PT EU16

>>> Call
>> Stock
*AEROPORTS DE PARIS ADDED TO CONVICTION SELL LIST AT GOLDMAN
*FIRSTGROUP ADDED TO CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN
*MOSCOW EXCHANGE REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CEEMEA FOCUS LIST

(BN) The Dealmaker Who Helped a U.S. Hedge Fund Score Congo Oil Prize


The Dealmaker Who Helped a U.S. Hedge Fund Score Congo Oil Prize
2015-05-07 04:00:05.294 GMT


By Franz Wild
(Bloomberg Business) -- For a businessman who doesn’t spend
much time at his burgundy mansion in Morocco’s ancient city of
Marrakesh, Jean-Yves Ollivier throws quite a dinner party.
Three servants in black tuxedos silently file past in the
soft light, keeping the nine French art dealers, lawyers and
charity workers topped up with a fruity blend of cabernet
sauvignon and merlot. The guests dine on roast rosemary lamb,
Mediterranean vegetables and potato dauphinoise, on crimson
plates from Istanbul. Silver bowls brim with red roses and two
elephant tusks form an arch by a dining room wall. The chatter
ranges from quips on French politics to exclamations at the
crunchiness of the pomegranate seeds in the mousse.
Ollivier is dressed for comfort on this wet December night,
wearing a woolen gray-and-white-striped djellaba, a Moroccan
robe. He fills it out. Leaning back in an upholstered wooden
chair, he throws out his arms and chortles at the compliments
he’s receiving about his recently published memoirs. The book
tells how he rose from a teenage refugee fleeing Algeria to
become one of Africa’s canniest middlemen.
The Frenchman is happy to talk about his deals, and to say
that his Marrakesh residence — and the other places he has
around the world — are one benefit of his 45 years of working in
Africa. He’s made his career befriending the continent’s leaders
and finding ways for them, the companies they deal with, and
himself, to all make money.
One deal he cites as epitomizing his ability to match up
different interests: how he helped a venture by Och-Ziff Capital
Management Group LLC, the largest publicly traded U.S. hedge-
fund manager, buy a stake in an oil project being explored by
Eni SpA off the coast of the Republic of Congo. He says he also
advised his friend, Congolese President Denis Sassou Nguesso,
whose government granted the concession in 2010. The price was
about a third of its actual value then, according to McDaniel &
Associates Consultants Ltd.
“I am not the Godfather, of course, but I employ about the
same system.”
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice
Department are investigating several Och-Ziff investments in
Africa with an eye to whether they violated anti-bribery laws,
the company said a year ago. New York-based Och-Ziff didn’t
specify which investments. Spokesmen for both the Justice
Department and the SEC declined to comment on their
investigations into Och-Ziff.
Och-Ziff, through its external public relations firm,
declined to comment. Ollivier said only that he hasn’t been
contacted by anyone in connection with the investigation. The
Congolese government declined to comment.
Ollivier, 70, also helped represent Congo in a dispute with
billionaire Paul Singer’s New York hedge-fund company, Elliott
Management Corp. He has been an adviser to Russian nuclear
company Rosatom Corp. and Swiss oil trader Vitol Group. And he’s
found himself among the thousands of people on a list of those
with secret accounts at the Swiss private-banking unit of HSBC
Holdings Plc. He said the accounts were legal, all taxes have
been paid and he’s been a Swiss resident for a long time.
Ollivier says his career is built on favor-trading that he
likens to methods used by Don Corleone in “The Godfather” film
trilogy.
“I am not the Godfather, of course, but I employ about the
same system,” he says in an interview the morning after the
dinner. “It starts by him helping this one and this one and this
one, not asking anything. But maybe one day I will ask you
something. The gain comes afterwards and for a mutually
beneficial project. That’s where I benefit, ultimately.”
After dinner, the guests pass under pointed archways and
domed ceilings and step across a zebra skin for Cuban cigars,
mint tea and pralines in the lounge. Ollivier picks out a Hoyo
de Monterrey. It’s short and thick, his favorite kind.
“I designed it myself,” Ollivier says of the house,
pointing out the clear run from the front door through the
atrium, lounge and across the lawn to three giant red cubes
perched upon a six-step waterfall feature. “I love architecture.
It is the trace of a human being on earth. Your soul remains in
the house.”
The interview is part of a decision Ollivier has made to
fashion a public persona, he says. He wants to counter what he
calls untrue suggestions in the media and books that he’s a spy
or an arms dealer. He’s also participated in and promoted a
documentary funded by South African military-equipment
manufacturer Ivor Ichikowitz’s foundation. It's about how he
helped negotiate a prisoner swap between Angola and apartheid
South Africa — then at war with each other — in 1987.
At the dinner party, he signed and handed out copies of “Ni
Vu Ni Connu,” French for neither seen nor known, the memoir that
came out last year. On the cover, a serene Ollivier peers out
from a dark background.
During the morning chat, Ollivier sits on a couch in his
lounge, puffing on another cigar, resting an elbow on a table
cluttered with silver and opal artifacts. He sips on a pint of
what he calls an alcohol-free mojito: lime, soda, mint and lots
of crushed ice. Behind him, a life-sized wooden monkey
contemplates an apple. The interview later moves to his office
in a stand-alone garden hut and then to a reading room, where a
fire roars beneath a mantelpiece holding three leather busts.
Ollivier doesn’t spend much time at the Marrakesh house, or
at any one of his other residences around the world: in Paris,
Zurich, Brazzaville in the Republic of Congo and on the 15th
story of Marilyn Monroe’s old building on Sutton Place in
Manhattan’s midtown. His favorite is at South Africa’s Kruger
safari park. He says he spends more time in the air than in any
one place.
He flatly denies ever working as a spy, dealing in arms or
participating in any form of corruption or bribery.
“He is the epitome of the man in the shadows, who knows
everything and runs everything,” said Gerard Prunier, a French
academic affiliated with the Washington-based Atlantic Council
and the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa
and an author of books about Africa. “If you’re a businessman,
he can open all kinds of doors for you that you can’t.”
Ollivier’s career began at the age of 17, when he was cast
out by Algeria, where he was born. So were 1 million other
pieds-noirs, as the French people living there were known, who
fled around the time of independence in 1962. He became a
courier for the pied-noir resistance, traveling between the two
countries. He was caught, tortured and held in a Paris jail for
five months for charges including “plotting against the
authority of the state,” he said in his memoirs and on his
website.
Instead of completing high school when he got out of
prison, he went to London to learn English. An internship
arranged by a family contact there led to a job as a grain
trader back in Paris. In 1969, still in his mid-20s, Ollivier
shipped barley to Libya, where Muammar Qaddafi had just
overthrown the government. That same year, he successfully bid
for trader Grainex SA to sell wheat to China at the height of
the Cultural Revolution.
Ollivier traveled to South Africa for a French chemical
company in the 1980s and later sold oil to the government,
breaching sanctions against the apartheid regime. In 1986, he
says in his book, Jacques Chirac, shortly to become prime
minister of France and later president, asked him to help
negotiate the release of French hostages from Lebanon. By then,
he had direct access to a number of African leaders, and
companies and politicians were turning to him for help.
“What is necessary at a certain moment is that your file
will be put on top of the other files and there will be an
instruction to the people to look at your file favorably,”
Ollivier says, reaching forward and closing his fingertips
together as though picking a plum.
By 2009, Ollivier was a go-between for the Congolese
government and the oil venture Och-Ziff had set up. Daniel Och
had created the fund manager in 1994 after 11 years at Goldman
Sachs & Co., where he had most recently been co-head of U.S.
equities trading. As chief executive officer and chairman of the
eponymous company, he secured investments from pension funds,
foundations, corporations, private banks and more to build the
assets under management to $47 billion today, according to the
company website.
Och-Ziff invested across the globe in various asset
classes. In 2008, the fund manager set up a joint venture with
South African partners to invest in resources on the continent.
The resulting African Global Capital funds made investments in
projects including uranium mining in Democratic Republic of
Congo and a coal company in South Africa. It was African Global
that secured the oil deal in the Republic of Congo, the DRC’s
smaller neighbor to the northwest.
Starting in 2011, Och-Ziff began receiving subpoenas from
the SEC and information requests from the Justice Department in
connection with an investigation into possible violations of
anti-bribery laws, the company announced in a March 2014
regulatory filing. The probe related to an investment from a
foreign sovereign wealth fund in Och-Ziff, as well as the hedge
fund’s investments in “a number of companies in Africa,” it
said.
Legal expenses have risen due to the investigation, Och-
Ziff Chief Financial Officer Joel Frank told analysts on a May 5
earnings call, adding that the company hopes the probe will be
over by the end of the year. 
By the time U.S. authorities were contacting Och-Ziff,
Ollivier had a track record of working with the Republic of
Congo. There, Sassou Nguesso, a 71-year-old French-trained
colonel paratrooper, had come to power through a 1979 coup, just
as oil production was becoming significant.
Espousing Marxist-Leninist rhetoric, he quickly began
allowing Western companies to pump Congo’s oil. He’s ruled ever
since, except for a five-year gap when he lost elections. Sassou
Nguesso’s Cobra rebel fighters returned him to power in 1997 in
a four-month civil war.
“[President Denis Sassou Nguesso] doesn't care about money.
He doesn't spend. Yes, he likes beautiful suits and pens. The
man lives a very simple life. He’s devoted to his country.”
Congo’s output mushroomed to about 300,000 barrels of crude
oil a day in 2010, making up about 90 percent of export revenue,
according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This
hasn’t made the country’s people rich. About half live on less
than $1.25 per day, according to United Nations data. Almost one
in 10 children dies before the age of five.
Transparency International accused Sassou Nguesso of
embezzling a “substantial part” of Congo’s oil income by selling
crude at below market value in exchange for payments to his
benefit. The Berlin-based group and a French nonprofit in 2008
filed a complaint with France’s prosecutor’s office. It
requested legal action to get Sassou Nguesso and four other
African presidents to reimburse public funds they had embezzled,
according to a copy of the claim. Transparency International
estimated Sassou Nguesso’s fortune to be more than $1 billion.
“I know him intimately,” Ollivier says, dismissing the
allegations with a wave. “He doesn’t care about money. He
doesn’t spend. Yes, he likes beautiful suits and pens. The man
lives a very simple life. He’s devoted to his country.”
A French judge is currently investigating the claims
against Sassou Nguesso and his family, William Bourdon, the
lawyer who filed the complaint on behalf of Transparency
International and its partner, said by phone.
Because it is an investigation and not a court case, Sassou
Nguesso’s side isn’t required to respond. The inquiry has no
chance of leading to a court hearing because embezzling public
funds abroad isn’t an offense in France, and French courts don’t
have any jurisdiction abroad, Jean-Pierre Versini-Campinchi, a
Paris-based lawyer for Congo, said in an e-mailed response to
questions.
Congolese Communications Minister Bienvenu Okiemy requested
e-mailed questions when called on his mobile phone, but he
didn't provide an e-mail address and didn't respond to 10 text
messages or 20 calls. Minister of Special Economic Zones Alain
Akouala Atipault didn’t answer 10 calls to his mobile phone.
Four requests for comment submitted on the website of Sassou
Nguesso’s office went unanswered.
By 2002, Ollivier was advising the National Oil Company of
Congo, known by its French acronym, SNPC, on a loan of about
$350 million to build energy infrastructure. Rand Merchant Bank,
a South African investment bank, was a joint lead arranger and
participated in the financing. Oil trader Vitol was guaranteed
the product. Congo increased its crude production. And Ollivier
was paid for his services, he says.
“It’s the type of deal I love, where everybody wins,” says
Ollivier, drawing on his cigar under the mosaic ceiling in his
office.
Vitol said in an e-mailed response to questions that it had
a consulting agreement with “companies controlled by Mr.
Ollivier from 2002 to 2004.” It was related to the development
of Vitol’s business in Congo. Vitol said the details were
confidential and declined to comment on the loan.
Ollivier introduced SNPC to Rand Merchant Bank and was
involved in the initial negotiation but didn’t play a
“significant role in the arrangement thereafter,” according to
Peter Gent, the bank’s project finance head at the time.
Ollivier also lent SNPC chief counsel Blaise Elenga, a “long-
standing personal” friend, $185,000 to build a house, according
to a sworn statement he made to a Hong Kong court in an
unrelated case. Ollivier says it was repaid.
Elenga asked for questions to be sent via e-mail and didn’t
respond to five e-mails or eight telephone calls.
The Hong Kong case arose in 2006. A unit of billionaire
Singer’s New York hedge-fund company, Elliott Management, was
trying to recover more than $100 million in Congolese debt it
owned, according to court papers. The Elliott unit was winning
judicial orders allowing it to seize state assets, including oil
cargoes, and it alleged in the Hong Kong files that Ollivier was
helping Congo conceal these.
In his own affidavit, Ollivier denied that he’d hidden
assets. In the December interview, he said he’d created a web of
shell companies to conceal the owners of Congo’s oil and the
payments the SNPC was receiving. He also worked out a way to
ensure the cargoes were paid for before they left the country,
instead of the usual 60 or 90 days later, he said.
“I built that and I’m very proud of that,” Ollivier says,
standing up and casting an arm down for emphasis. Speaking of
Elliott, he said it was “tackling people and destroying the
reputation and names of the people who were close to the
regime.”
In the Hong Kong affidavits, he also disclosed more about
his relationship with Congo and the SNPC: he said he’d known
Sassou Nguesso since 1974, he rented office space to the SNPC in
Paris, he acted as an SNPC oil broker and international
relations consultant and he organized crude-backed loans for it.
For the loans he received commissions of 0.375 percent.
Ollivier was involved “in the cross-border manipulation
through which Congo’s assets have been concealed and
dissipated,” Donald Steven Schwarzkopf, an advocate for Dechert
LLP who represented the Elliott unit, said in an affidavit to
the Hong Kong court.
Ollivier denied the allegations in his affidavit to the
court, saying he had “not conspired in any way” to prevent the
Elliott unit from recovering its debts. In an interview he
called the accusations “rubbish.” An Elliott spokesman declined
to comment.
In the end, Congo settled out of court with Elliott.
Ollivier says that was his idea. On top of the fees Ollivier
made, he came out of it with a Congolese diplomatic passport, he
says, an honor he’s been awarded in a few African countries.
They’re all legal, he says.
Ollivier also says he lobbied lawmakers in the U.S. and
U.K. in favor of legislation banning vulture funds, so named
because they allegedly prey on poor countries. Sassou Nguesso
paid Ollivier $1.3 million between March 2007 and September 2010
to lobby U.S. officials for debt relief for Congo, among other
things, Justice Department records under the Foreign Agents
Registration Act show.
 
He was lobbying for Congo just as Italian oil major Eni was
looking at new projects off the country's coastline — in a deal
that Ollivier was helping to shape. In April 2009, Eni's local
unit signed a production-sharing contract with Congo’s oil
ministry. One condition: the Rome-based company had to commit to
transfer a 25 percent share to a company of the government’s
choice, Eni said. The contract gave the Italian producer a 90
percent stake in the block; the other 10 percent was held by the
SNPC.
Ollivier says ensuring that another company could get a cut
in the block and then finding the Och-Ziff venture, New Age
(African Global Energy) Ltd., were his doing. He says he advised
Sassou Nguesso that Congo needed a third party to help ensure
Eni wasn’t inflating costs, as any single operator might be
inclined to do to increase its own share of the profits.
“I told the president that for this field it would be a
good thing to have a barking dog which would create a lot of
pressure on Eni and will control that cost,” Ollivier says. A
grin spreads across his face.
Eni declined to comment specifically, saying only that it
“operates in full respect of the economic interests of the state
as defined in the agreements signed.”
New Age had sprung out of Och-Ziff’s 2008 foray into
Africa, when it formed a joint venture with Palladino Holdings
Ltd., a company controlled by South African businessman Walter
Hennig with natural resource projects and property in several
African countries.
The venture’s two African Global Capital funds controlled
66 percent of New Age at the outset, as they and other
shareholders paid $140 million toward the startup’s launch,
according to an internal Och-Ziff memo. The funds’ investment
committee, which gave the final approval on all deals, was led
by Michael Cohen, Och-Ziff’s London-based head of Europe, Middle
East and Africa, the memo said.
AGC “has effective control of the company and each
investment decision is subject to the firm’s approval,” it said.
Cohen, who has since resigned from Och-Ziff, declined to
comment.
“We’re obviously very close to Och-Ziff as we are with all
of our shareholders,” New Age CEO Steven Lowden said in a phone
interview. “They are a highly valued shareholder. They know the
equity space, they know the oil and gas space.”
“Everybody wins. Congo gains a good partner, who pays me by
giving me some shares. It's a puzzle you put together. The
problem is to have all the pieces of the puzzle.”
Three months after signing with Eni in 2009, the oil
ministry told the company that it had selected New Age,
according to Eni. After a year of verifying New Age’s
credentials, Eni transferred the 25 percent stake, it said. New
Age paid Eni $53 million, according to a 2011 prospectus of the
venture when it was considering a Toronto Stock Exchange
listing.
That came to little more than a third of the stake’s net
present value of $142.5 million, based on projections of future
earnings, according to an estimate by Calgary-based petroleum
consulting firm McDaniel & Associates, cited in the New Age
prospectus. That valuation is based only on reserves found in
the first of three fields, not in the Nene Marine field, which
wasn’t producing then, nor the third field.
Eni said in the e-mail that the payment wasn’t based on
value and rather, was simply to reimburse the company for its
costs. McDaniel declined to update the figures.
Marine XII continues to show enormous promise. Eni says the
probable reserves are now 5.5 billion barrels of crude. Nene
Marine, one of the three fields found in Marine XII, started
producing in January, with output expected to plateau at 140,000
barrels a day, according to Eni. Chief Executive Officer Claudio
Descalzi said in June that the company planned to invest $1.5
billion in Congo.
While it’s too early to say definitively, Marine XII could
double Congo’s oil output and make the country a more important
location for Eni, David Thomson, senior analyst with energy
research company Wood Mackenzie in Edinburgh, said in an
interview.
“This could be absolutely transformational,” Thomson said.
“The success at Marine XII reaffirms Congo as being core to
Eni.”
New Age awarded Ollivier a 6.3 percent stake in the block,
which he converted into a 2.4 percent direct stake in the
company, according to corporate records filed in Jersey, where
it is registered. That stake is worth $15 million, based on New
Age’s total worth of $619 million, according to a financial
statement for last year. New Age also paid Palladino, the South
African partner, $13 million for the “active and time-consuming
role” it played in completing the Marine XII transaction,
according to Palladino.
“Where is the conflict of interest?” asks Ollivier, getting
up and pacing into the faint light pouring through the open
double doors. “Don’t you pay your broker? Everybody wins. Congo
gains a good partner, who pays me by giving me some shares.”
New Age has “at all times conducted its business in
accordance with the highest ethical standards and all local and
international legal requirements,” according to a letter from
its lawyers, Clyde & Co., in London.
Though Ollivier says he’s now trying to forge an energy
agreement between three major emerging-market nations, deals
such as Marine XII may be becoming rarer.
Middlemen are less useful in today’s Africa, where more
transactions are done through big corporations. Almost half the
continent’s countries have a stock exchange. African stocks have
rallied 13 percent in the last two years, outperforming global
emerging-market equities by a factor of more than four. African
issuers last year sold a record $16 billion of international
bonds. Nations including Senegal and Zambia are using low
borrowing costs in dollars to fund infrastructure from roads to
power projects.
Ollivier “had a key position,” said Olivier Longchamp of
the Berne Declaration, which researches and campaigns for
transparency in the commodities trade. “He is a kind of symbol
that sums up the way deals used to be made.”
He’s still a consultant to Rosatom, “providing
consultations on realizing several projects abroad,” the Russian
nuclear company said in an e-mailed response.
Ollivier says he’s also focusing more time on the
Brazzaville Foundation for Peace and Conservation, which he
helped found last year to act as a conflict resolver. He
recruited England’s Prince Michael of Kent, the Queen’s cousin,
as its patron. It will have the added bonus of allowing its
members to use it as a networking platform, he says. Ollivier’s
work to promote peace is well documented, Prince Michael said in
an e-mailed response to questions.
Ollivier says that as he looks back on his career, a key
principle stands out:
“One rule counts: I’m not here to judge anyone. It’s just
family. Family, you don’t judge. Friends, you don’t judge,
either. You cannot judge. Who are you to judge?”
After a few more exchanges, the interview is over. Ollivier
accompanies a reporter out to the gravel driveway, then steps
past a life-size brass bulldog beside the heavy wooden front
door and across the threshold, out of sight. —With David
Kocieniewski, Jesse Westbrook, Tom Schoenberg and Dave Michaels,
Michael J. Kavanagh and Paul Burkhardt
For more, read this QuickTake:The Resource Curse

To contact the author on this story:
Franz Wild at fwild@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors on this story:
Antony Sguazzin at asguazzin@bloomberg.net
Anne Swardson at aswardson@bloomberg.net
Ana Monteiro at amonteiro4@bloomberg.net

>>> Alcatel-Lucent Earnings Increase as Weaker Euro Boosts Revenue

Alcatel-Lucent 1Q Sales, Gross Margin Beat Ests., Posts Net Loss
Alcatel-Lucent Sees Positive Free Cash Flow in 2015, CEO Says


Alcatel-Lucent confirms free cash flow target “regardless of current market conditions,” CEO Michel Combes tells reporters during conference call. Also:
  • Reiterates all 2015 forecasts
  • Says there’s no reason for any change to the Nokia deal; it doesn’t depend on a single quarter’s performance
  • Says customers support the Nokia deal “almost unanimously”
  • Says market slowdown in U.S., Japan isn’t structural
  • Says impact of currencies on profits is “marginal”

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: Australia lost jobs in April; Asian market extend losses

***Economic Data***
*(JP) JAPAN APR MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 51.3 V 48.4 PRIOR; 1st expansion in 3 months
*(AU) AUSTRALIA APR EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -2.9K V +4.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.2% V 6.2%E
*(JP) JAPAN APR MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 35.2% V 35.2% PRIOR; MONETARY BASE END OF PERIOD: ¥305.9T V ¥295.9T PRIOR
*(AU) AUSTRALIA APR AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 47.0 V 50.1 PRIOR
(MY) Malaysia Mar Trade Balance (MYR): 7.8B v 5.2Be
(TH) Thailand Apr Consumer Confidence: 76.6 v 77.7 prior

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -1.1%, S&P/ASX -0.9%, Kospi -1.6%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Jun S&P500 +0.1% at 2,076

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Jun gold -0.3% at $1,187/oz, Jun crude oil -1.0% at $60.34/brl, May copper -0.5% at $2.92/lb
- USD/CNY: PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1113 v 6.1156 prior (strongest Yuan setting since Feb)
- USD/KRW: Onshore opens at KRW1,078 v KRW1,080 prior close
- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (6th consecutive halt); Net zero position this week (2nd consecutive week of neutral position)
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGBs, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs and ¥140B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr
- (NZ) NZ 2035 indexed linked yield up over 15bps, amid failed auction

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Australia April employment change posted a loss of 2.9K jobs, missing expectations for an increase of 4.0K with unemployment rate in line with consensus of 6.2%. Full-time employment decreased by 21.9K, while part-time employment failed to offset the decline by 19.0K rise. The participation rate was in line with estimates and unchanged from prior month. As a result, AUD/USD slipped about 30pips below $0.7930 after the data but quickly bounced back towards $0.8000 level. The central bank is set to release quarterly monetary policy statement Friday with investors casting an eye on how it will gauge its easing bias.

- Asian markets extend in negative territory with Japan returned from Golden Week holiday. Shanghai Composite dived 1.4% in morning session deepening fears for speculation on margin control and new listings to snap funds from markets. Japan services sector moved back into expansion for the first time in three months.

- In notable equity developments, National Australia Bank made a cash profit of A$3.3B in first six months, in line with expectations. Company also planned a massive A$5.5B capital raising as it prepared to demerger and IPO of UK business. NAB shares are currently in a trading halt.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- TRIP: Reports Q1 $0.54 v $0.55e, R$363M v $364Me; -1.1% afterhours
- GMCR: Reports Q2 $1.03 v $1.05e, R$1.13B v $1.16Be; -1.8% afterhours
- WBMD: Reports Q1 $0.25 v $0.23e, R$143.3M v $142Me; +0.4% afterhours
- CZR: Reports Q1 $ v -$1.53e, R$1.25B v $2.18Be; -1.1% afterhours
- FOXA: Reports Q3 $0.42 v $0.40e, R$6.84B v $6.99Be; -0.7% afterhours
- ACAS: Reports Q1 $0.28 v $0.20e, R$154M v $138Me; Change in spin-off plans; +0.6% afterhours
- WFM: Reports Q2 $0.44 v $0.42e, R$3.65B v $3.71Be; Launches new "value format" store; +0.4% afterhours
- MKL: Reports Q1 $13.49 v $5.88e, R$1.30B v $1.08Be; -0.1% afterhours
- KND: Reports Q1 $0.34 v $0.27e, R$1.68B v $1.69Be; -0.9% afterhours
- NUS: Reports Q1 $0.72 (ex $0.12 on Venezeula FX)* v $0.73e, R$543M v $542Me; +4.2% afterhours
- TSLA: Reports Q1 -$0.36 v -$0.52e, R$1.1B (adj) v $1.04Be; -1.1% afterhours
- NSIT: Reports Q1 $0.27 v $0.27e, R$1.22B v $1.23Be; +1.1% afterhours
- BGC: Reports Q1 $0.35 v -$0.12e, R$1.26B v $1.20Be; -0.9% afterhours
- PRU: Reports Q1 $2.79 v $2.41e, R$11.8B v $10.9Be; +0.4% afterhours
- MET: Reports Q1 $1.44 v $1.41e, R$18.7B v $17.5Be; -0.6% afterhours
- CF: Reports Q1 $4.79 v $4.61e, R$953.6M v $965Me; Plant expansion construction on track for Q315
- MRO: Reports Q1 -$0.37 v -$0.47e, R$1.53B v $1.71Be; -0.5% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Financials: Scentre Group SCG.AU -1.3% (Q1 results); China Taiping Insurance 966.HK -1.2% (to sell new shares); AMP Limited AMP.AU -0.9% (Q1 results)
- Industrials: Shenzhen Airport 000089.CN -2.2% (April results);CITIC Heavy Industries 601608.CN +10.0% (acquisition announcement); Huayi Electric 600290.CN -1.1% (to issue new shares); Great Wall Moto 2333.HK -1.3% (April results)

>>> Dan Loeb on Warren Buffet, says Buffet full of inconsistencies on HF...

“I love contrasting his words with his actions,” Loeb says at the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference. “But I also like how he criticizes hedge funds yet he really had the first hedge fund. He criticizes activists. He was the first activist. He criticizes financial service companies, yet he likes to invest in them. He thinks that we should all pay more taxes but he loves avoiding them himself.”

>>> Tesla buys Grand Rapids auto supplier --> auto comp. is the key...watch Vale

The acquisition of Grand Rapids-based Riviera Tool marks Tesla's first presence in Michigan.

Tesla Motors is acquiring a Grand Rapids-based auto supplier, giving the Silicon Valley technology company a manufacturing presence in Michigan, the Free Press has learned.

Tesla reached a deal to acquire Riviera Tool, marking the first acquisition for the burgeoning electric-vehicle and battery manufacturer, said a person familiar with the matter.

Riviera, which makes stamping parts that are shipped to Tesla's assembly plant in Fremont, Calif., has about 100 employees. Tesla is expected to retain those workers and eventually rename the operation Tesla Tool & Die, said the source who is not authorized to speak publicly about the transaction.

The automaker is also expected to continue doing business with other stamping parts suppliers.

"Tesla's aggressive volume goal for 2015 has the automaker working overtime to secure sufficient production capacity," said Karl Brauer, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book. "Purchasing a Michigan-based tool and die company illustrates Tesla's need for a capable and dedicated manufacturing partner. It could represent the first of many such acquisitions we'll see in the months ahead."

The investment in Michigan gives Tesla a manufacturing footprint in the home state of the Detroit Three automakers: General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. The company expects to continue adding jobs at Riviera, which is currently located near the Gerald Ford International Airport.

Tesla views the deal as crucial to improving the efficiency of its manufacturing processes. The company is facing immense pressure to expand production of its Model S luxury electric sedan and is expected to begin production of the all-new Model X luxury electric crossover in the third quarter.

Straining under demand for more parts, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has acknowledged that the logistics of ramping up production for a global product have involved more hurdles than he expected.

Terms of the acquisition were not immediately available.

The deal comes several months after Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder signed into law a bill that ensured Tesla cannot sell its vehicles directly to consumers through stores in the state. The nearest Tesla store is located in Chicago.

At a news conference in January at the Automotive News World Congress event in Detroit, Musk told reporters that he wouldn't rule out building a plant in Michigan in the future.

"It's not out of the question. Maybe Michigan shouldn't stop us from selling cars here. That would be a nice gesture," he said to laughter.

(BN) China Stock Alarms Get Louder as Morgan Stanley Ends Bullish Bet



China Stock Alarms Get Louder as Morgan Stanley Ends Bullish Bet
2015-05-07 02:19:29.985 GMT


By Kana Nishizawa
(Bloomberg) -- Add Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas
Investment Partners to the list of forecasters sounding an alarm
about China’s stock market.
Jonathan Garner, the chief Asia and emerging market
strategist at Morgan Stanley, downgraded Chinese stocks for the
first time in more than seven years on Thursday, citing the
weakest corporate profits since 2009. BNP Paribas has sold some
Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong on concern about ballooning
mainland margin debt and the growing mismatch between equity
prices and a deteriorating economy.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies
traded in Hong Kong surged to a seven-year high last month amid
record turnover in the city, before the advance stalled for the
past two weeks. UBS Group AG expects regulators to step in to
curb mainland gains, while asset managers from Macquarie
Investment Management to Baron Capital Inc. have voiced concern
that the rally has gone too far, too fast.
“When a market goes crazy like this, no other topic
becomes interesting,” Arthur Kwong, the head of Asia Pacific
equities at BNP, which oversees about $573 billion globally,
said in an interview on April 29. “That’s a big negative signal
-- it’s as if nothing else is important. That makes me
paranoid.”
China’s economy grew last quarter at the slowest pace since
2009 and reports from manufacturing to industrial output and
exports missed estimates. Stock investors have largely taken bad
news as good, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 70 percent
through Wednesday since the central bank cut interest rates on
Nov. 21 on optimism that policy makers will put a floor under
the slowdown.

Catch-up Rally

Mainland companies traded in Hong Kong trailed the rally
until March, when China’s securities regulator said more fund
managers could buy equities listed in the city. The Hang Seng
China Enterprises Index soared 18 percent since then and
turnover through the Shanghai-Hong Kong bourse link jumped. A
similar Shenzhen cross-border trading program is expected this
year.
Kwong says investors are too obsessed with the impact of
money flows through the connect, and the stock frenzy reminds
him of the market peak in 2007.
“Now it’s very unfashionable to talk about being careful,
it’s quite old fashioned,” he said. “Fundamentally we are
worse, but the market excitement is similar. This is something
that worries me.”

2007 Peak

The H-share gauge surged to an all-time high in October
2007, then plunged 76 percent within a year. Before mid-2008,
Chinese manufacturing was expanding, industrial output was
increasing at almost triple the current pace, and gross domestic
product growth was above 10 percent. The stock index today is 46
percent away from its 2007 peak. It slipped 0.7 percent at 9:59
a.m. local time, while the Shanghai Composite extended its
three-day decline to 6.8 percent.
For Garner, the downgrade to equalweight from overweight
for shares in the MSCI China Index was spurred by rising
valuations and deteriorating earnings. The gauge’s price-to-book
ratio is now the highest since March 2012 and return on equity,
a gauge of profitability, has shrunk to the lowest since the
global recession six years ago, the Hong Kong-based strategist
wrote in a report.
“China is no longer going to outperform other emerging
markets,” Garner said in a phone interview Thursday. “We’d
like to recommend taking some profits.”

Margin Debt

Chinese investors are borrowing record amounts to plow into
equities. The outstanding balance of margin debt on the Shanghai
exchange climbed to an all-time high of 1.24 trillion yuan ($200
billion) on Tuesday, while the number of Chinese stock accounts
containing funds increased to a record 63.7 million in the week
ended May 1.
Bulls say they’re making the right call. The market can
only be considered in a bubble if it doubles, and China remains
attractive relative to other emerging and Asian markets based on
valuations, Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Markus Rosgen wrote
in a note last month.
BNP’s Kwong says he’s now “a bit underweight” on China
relative to the benchmarks he tracks. He recently sold some
infrastructure and heavy machinery shares and shifted into
insurers, which have lagged the rally, declining to name
specific companies. The MSCI China Industrials Index surged 28
percent since March 27, compared with an average 16 percent rise
by the nation’s top three insurers.
Kwong has added shares from Southeast Asia, which have
better prospects for a rally, he said. Still, there are pockets
of China’s market with attractive companies even if the overall
outlook isn’t promising, he said.
“Even though we are skeptical about the market, the recent
rally is something you must submit to,” said Kwong. “When the
market is going up and you’re saying something rational, people
wouldn’t want to listen. But based on fundamentals, I need to
remind people and be responsible.”

For Related News and Information:
Rule No. 1 in China’s Bull-Market Rally: Don’t Look at Earnings
As China Stocks Outrun the 2007 Bubble, UBS Braces for Clampdown
Top Stories:TOP<GO>
Most-read emerging-market news: MNI EM 1W <GO>
Developing economy market moves: EMMV <GO>

--With assistance from Kyoungwha Kim in Hong Kong.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Kana Nishizawa in Hong Kong at +852-2977-4627 or
knishizawa5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Sarah McDonald at +61-2-9777-8684 or
smcdonald23@bloomberg.net;
Michael Patterson at +852-2977-4820 or
mpatterson10@bloomberg.net
Chris Nagi

(BN) Gross’s ‘Short of a Lifetime’ Sours as Bund Slump Surprises (1)



Gross’s ‘Short of a Lifetime’ Sours as Bund Slump Surprises (1)
2015-05-07 02:10:53.844 GMT


(Updates with comments on volatility from Gross in fourth
paragraph.)

By Miles Weiss
(Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross should have listened to Bill
Gross.
Just before the selloff in German government bonds, the
manager of the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund said the
debt was the “short of a lifetime.” Yet instead of betting
all-out against German bunds, Gross wagered they would trade in
a narrow range for the time being, fund holdings posted on the
website of Denver-based Janus Capital Group Inc. show.
The trade may have hurt Gross when bunds slumped more than
he had anticipated. Janus Global Unconstrained has fallen 2.6
percent since Gross advised shorting the 10-year German bund on
April 21. The losses erased the fund’s earlier gains, leaving it
down 0.04 percent for the year.
“When you sell volatility, you are basically selling
insurance,” Gross said in an April interview. And “when you
sell volatility and you get volatility, then it’s not a good
thing.”
In the interview, Gross compared his strategy to selling
insurance, saying investors were now willing to pay fatter
premiums to protect their holdings against future bond market
turbulence. This strategy positioned Janus Global Unconstrained
to boost returns with these premiums as long as volatility
remained low, but also exposed the fund to losses should markets
become more turbulent.

Bond Selloff

The holdings disclosed on the Janus website are as of March
31, and Gross may have changed them since. Erin Freeman, a
spokeswoman for Denver-based Janus, declined to comment on the
fund.
In an online commentary for the first quarter, Janus said
volatility sales, in the form of writing options contracts, were
“a major driver” of positive returns.
The downside to this strategy began to crop up the very day
that Gross proposed investors short 10-year bunds, when a
selloff in European bonds started to gather momentum. Yields on
the 10-year German government bonds, which had fallen to a
record low of 0.049 percent on April 17, surged, reaching 0.586
percent on Wednesday, the highest this year.
“The trade this year has been to be long bunds and short
the euro, said David Ader, the head of government bond strategy
at CRT Capital Group LLC. ‘‘This is a big position squeeze and
unwind.’’

11,000 Percent

Gross at the end of March had sold both put and call
options on futures contracts tied to 10-year U.S. Treasuries as
well as German bonds. Among them were puts on German bund
futures whose adjusted face value equaled about 4.6 percent of
Janus Global Unconstrained’s net assets as of March 31.
With the German bunds falling, the prices of the put
options soared. One contract that would obligate Janus Global
Unconstrained to buy futures on German bunds later this month
has jumped more than 6,000 percent since late April, and another
has surged almost 11,000 percent, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.
Put options that Gross sold short on U.S. Treasury futures
have also jumped in price, but to a much lesser degree than
those on German bunds. One such put option on futures for 10-
year Treasuries is up more than 500 percent since April 21,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Gross said in the April 29 interview with Bloomberg
Television that he hadn’t changed his positions. German 10-year
bond yields surged the most in two years that day, a jump that
surprised even Gross, who said he had expected the yields to
rise, and prices to fall, over an extended period of time.
‘‘Today wasn’t a good example for my case because prices
moved a lot,” Gross said in the interview.
“As long as they are writing checks,” Gross said,
referring to bond buying by the European Central Bank, “my best
bet, in addition to the shorting of the German bund, is to say
that things aren’t going to change much.”

For Related News and Information:
Treasuries Losses Mount as Yellen Joins Higher-Rates Chorus
Janus’s Gross Sees German 10-Year Bunds as Short of Lifetime
Top stories: TOP <GO>

--With assistance from Liz Capo McCormick, Mary Childs and Erik
Schatzker in New York.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Miles Weiss in Washington at +1-202-624-1899 or
mweiss@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Christian Baumgaertel at +1-617-210-4624 or
cbaumgaertel@bloomberg.net
Josh Friedman

>>> US After Hours Summary: BEAT +12%, ZNGA +5.8%, TRIP +5.2%, NUS -17

After Hours Summary: BEAT +12%, ZNGA +5.8%, TRIP +5.2%, NUS -17.3%, WFM -11.3%, GMCR -11% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: BEAT +12%, QRVO +11.7%, BIOD +11.5%, EMKR +8.1%, CHGG +7.8%, ALB +7.3%, ENSG +7.2%, PAYC +6.7%, CSOD +6%, ZNGA +5.8%, TRIP +5.2%, MASI +4.5%, QTM +4.3%, ATML +4.1%, CTIC +3.5%, PSEC +3.1%, PDLI +3.1%, MELI +3%, AHS +2.9%, CLR +2.8%, BLUE +2.8%, CPE +2.7%, EPAM +2.2%, VNDA +2.2%, MYRG +2.1%, DYN +2.1%, SQNM +2%, TSLA +2%, CPA +2%, TKMR +1.9%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ANN +9.1% (Seeing reports that co is in potential takeover talks with Golden Gate Capital as suitor), EMKR +8.1% (announced intention to commence a dutch auction tender offer for up to ~$45 million of common stock), ANY +6.5% (reported award of two patents for Peer-to-Peer Redundant File Server System and Methods), GST +5.6% (entered into agreement to sell certain non-core assets in Oklahoma for ~$46.2 mln, with the transaction expected to close on or before June 22, 2015), QTM +4.3% (announced resignation of Jeffrey Smith from its board of directors and appointment of Robert Andersen pursuant to Starboard's replacement rights), 

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: NUS -17.3%, VRNS -15.7%, TUMI -14.5%, WFM -11.3%, NSIT -11.2%, GMCR -11%, LCI -10.5%, FRSH -9.6%, ENVA -9.6%, FLTX -8.4%, TTPH -7.5%, CSLT -6.4%, MTDR -6.3%, SMLP -4.3%, PMT -4.1%, ALDW -3.4%, CODI -2.8%, WTI -2.3%, EVTC -1.7%, SN -1.6%, EXTR -1.5%, PTLA -1.5%, MATR -1.4%, RST -1.3%, EFC -1.3%, ETP -1.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: GLPW -5.7% (announced delay in Q1 earnings report) 

(BFW) *GOLDEN GATE CAPITAL SAID IN TALKS TO BUY ANN TAYLOR: REUTERS



BFW 05/06 21:14 *ANN INC MAY BE VALUED AT ~$2B IN GOLDEN GATE DEAL: REUTERS
BFW 05/06 21:13 *GOLDEN GATE CAPITAL SAID IN TALKS TO BUY ANN TAYLOR: REUTERS

Olivia Oran: $ANN spiking 15 pct as @GregRoumeliotis and I report company in late stage talks to be acquired by Golden Gate
2015-05-06 21:12:01.773 GMT

$ANN spiking 15 pct as @GregRoumeliotis and I
report company in late stage talks to be
acquired by Golden Gate reut.rs/1c74qz6
Olivia Oran @ozoran
 
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Twitter profile information as of May 6, 2015

Description: Reporter at Reuters covering healthcare, consumer and retail M&A
olivia.oran@thomsonreuters.com

Tweets: 1,872  Following: 751  Followers: 3,482  Tweeting Since: 1/20/2010

-0- May/06/2015 21:12 GMT