Hearing that this article is pushing mkt lower
No wonder the markets are rattled over Greece.
Forecasting group Oxford Economics says it has carried out an "in-depth" analysis of opinion polls ahead of Greece's snap general election on January 25, which shows that the radical Syriza party is on course to win a "clear mandate" to push through anti-austerity policies.
Renewed concerns over a possible "Grexit" are one of the main factors behind a flight to safety in the markets, with yields on 10-year German bunds falling to a new all-time low today.
Syriza has pledged to renegotiate the terms of Greece's bail-out programme if it seizes power.
The German government yesterday sought to play down speculation that Greece would exit the eurozone if Syriza wins power but investors remain nervous - and with good reason if the Oxford Economics is anything to go by.
Its analysis shows that Syriza's support is sufficient to secure a workable majority in Greece.The report says:
36% of the final vote is the approximate threshold beyond which a strong anti-austerity government is plausible. Syriza's performance has been consistent with this in each of the last 20 opinion polls, and over 40% of the vote on average in the last five.
The report, written by Oxford Economics' Gabriel Sterne, points out that the ruling New Democracy party could close the gap, if a tactic pays off to portray the election as effectively a referendum on an exit from the euro.
But Mr Sterne adds:
But the binary (in or out) nature of the vote decision may also help Syriza to achieve a decisive victory by squeezing out smaller parties (eg. Independent Greeks), as voters herd to the big two.
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