(Exane) French Telco - Numericable SFR Dwg to Neutral, ILD, EN & ORA TP upg

* Short-term risks to the nice ‘market polarisation’ scenario
Consensus is that, in fixed-line, Orange and Numericable will take the superfast segment and leave the ADSL low-end to Bouygues; whilst in mobile Iliad will remain a low-end underdog, leaving incumbents in peace in the 4G segments. In our view, this rosy scenario will be disrupted in the coming quarters: 1) Iliad will not stay idle – we expect new commercial initiatives, both in mobile and fixed-line, to grab SFR’s ADSL customers and to cap Bouygues’ inroads; 2) in mobile, the 4G quality gap in favour of Orange and Bouygues will go as Iliad and SFR beef up networks.

* Consolidation remains the end game – Hardly a surprise for anyone
The end-game remains Numericable-SFR acquiring Bouygues Telecom. Renewed competitive pressure would actually increase the chances that Martin Bouygues welcomes an offer by Patrick Drahi. We see synergies of EUR9bn and Bouygues Telecom going for EUR7.5bn.

* Numericable-SFR downgraded to (=) from (+) – Target price upped to EUR45 vs. EUR35
Everybody loves Numericable-SFR and so do we. We have hiked our forecasts (revenues and margin) and our Bouygues synergies number - to arguably bullish levels - but fail to see upside. The good news on rapid delivery of SFR synergies is out, but the risk of Iliad striking back is not.

* Iliad (+) retaking the initiative – Target price upped to EUR220 vs. EUR210
Iliad remains the fastest growing stock in the sector. We have hiked our 2015e EBITDA estimate thanks to faster progress in the mobile network rollout. Consolidation is a key catalyst ahead.

* Bouygues (+): 2015 a pivotal year for Bouygues Telecom – TP upped to EUR34 vs. EUR33
Not for the faint-hearted given the earnings risk on French construction, but upside remains assuming that pragmatism prevails on a Telecom sale - and we believe it will.

* Orange (=): a well know story – TP upped to EUR14 vs. EUR12
Solid earnings for sure, but wholesale headwinds will increase and the valuation is full.

(TechCrunch) BlackBerry CEO Wants Legislators To Make Developing BlackBerry Apps

BlackBerry CEO Wants Legislators To Make Developing BlackBerry Apps Mandatory

At this point, BlackBerry and Windows Phone fans are probably used to having a much smaller selection of apps than their counterparts on iOS and Android smartphones. After all, diehard devotees of BlackBerry and Windows Phone, which both lag dramatically behind Android and iOS in terms of market share, still bought their smartphones in spite of their limited app ecosystems.

BlackBerry CEO John Chen, however, thinks this is unfair. In fact, he thinks it is so “discriminatory” that he wants legislators to widen the definition of net neutrality to include “application neutrality.”

In other words, if a company makes an app for iOS and Android, they must also make a version for BlackBerry and all other operating systems.

In a blog post on BlackBerry’s site that was adapted from a letter Chen sent to several members of Congress, Chen wrote “all wireless broadband customers must have the ability to access any lawful applications and content they choose, and applications/content providers must be prohibited from discriminating based on the customer’s mobile operating system.”

In support of his argument, Chen, who joined BlackBerry as chairman and CEO in November 2013, notes that BlackBerry makes BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) available for iPhone users, even though Apple has not reciprocated by opening up its own messaging service to other platforms.

He also took a swing at Netflix: “Netflix, which has forcefully advocated for carrier neutrality, has discriminated against BlackBerry customers by refusing to make its streaming movie service available to them.”

By focusing on apps for just iOS and Android, Chen says developers are creating a “two-tiered wireless broadband ecosystem, in which iPhone and Android users are able to access far more content and applications than customers using devices running other operating systems. These are precisely the sort of discriminatory practices that neutrality advocates have criticized at the carrier level.”

While this would benefit BlackBerry, dealing with the added expense of being mandated to make apps for platforms that don’t generate significant revenue would probably drive most companies crazy (and put smaller developers out of business). Net neutrality is an extremely important issue with implications for free speech, but rolling “app neutrality” into it seems far-fetched, to say the least.

(BFW) Grexit Very Unlikely, Greek Finance Minister Tells Handelsblatt

Grexit Very Unlikely, Greek Finance Minister Tells Handelsblatt
2015-01-22 07:17:41.701 GMT


By Karin Matussek
(Bloomberg) -- 3/4 of Greeks want country to stay in euro,
Gikas Hardouvelis tells newspaper in interview.
* Hardouvelis also said:
* Believing the euro zone could easily deal with a Greek
exit is"absurd’’
* Troika needs to be more flexible with Greece budget
goals in 2015 to avoid downward spiral
* Greece should be allowed to raise debt ceiling for short
term to overcome problems associated with election
* No other country needs QE more than Greece
* No other country needs QE more than Greece</li></ul>
NOTE: Euro zone at crossroads with ECB decision on easing, Greek
elections

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Karin Matussek in Berlin at +49-30-70010-6218 or
kmatussek@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Anthony Aarons at +44-20-3525-2227 or
aaarons@bloomberg.net

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 22nd of January 2015

>>> Up
*ALCATEL RAISED TO CONVICTION BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*ENEL RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
*RSA RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*SAP REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST, STAYS BUY
*UBS RAISED TO HOLD FROM SELL AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*UBS GROUP RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT KEEFE BRUYETTE
*WACKER CHEMIE RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK

>>> Down
*CHR HANSEN CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCGEN
*DISCOVERY LTD CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*GEMALTO CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*MAGNIT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*PENNON CUT TO NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE
*TAG IMMOBILIEN CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY AT BANKHAUS LAMPE

>>> PT Changs


>>> Initiation
*AL NOOR HOSPITALS RATED NEW ADD AT NUMIS, PT 1,092P
*ENDESA SA RESUMED OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*NOKIA REINSTATED BUY AT GOLDMAN

>>> Call
>> Stock
*ARM ADDED TO CITI FOCUS LIST EUROPE
*OPERA SOFTWARE ADDED TO CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN
*SAP REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST, STAYS BUY

>>> What to look at today - 22nd of January 2015

Dow+0,22% S&P+0,47% NAsdaq+0,27% Russell-0,34%
US MArket Closed mixed again today with main indexes higher and small caps lower. The all market is waiting for ECB meeting tomorrow but rumors were all around driving market up & down...All sectors closed higher with energy leading with Crude Oil tradaing up 2.8% (WTI @ $47,78)...Financiasl & tech were the laggards today (IBM-3,1%), volume were below average @ 750mil shares...VIX @ 18,85 -5.23%...US After Hours +6.4%, EBAY +2.9%, URI +1.5%, FFIV -15.8%, CTP -14.6%, SNDK -6.4% following earnings/guidance...Shanghai Composite is underperforming in the region, falling for the first time in 3 days in spite of the rally on Wall Street and other Asian bourses. PBoC has surprised the markets with its first open market operation in 7 months and also the first net injection via reverse report since January 2014, but the move is backfiring, presumably on interpretation that a cosmetic policy move reduces the likelihood of straight interest rate cuts.PBoC also lowered the offered yield on the repo by 25bps to 3.85% from 4.10%. Separately, report out of Moody's noted shadow financing activities are shifting to new areas, such as e-financing platforms and margin financing in the equity market, as flows of investment into speculative housing market slowed. Moody's also warned that "maturity mismatches, and the potential for contagious runs, remain key risks for the shadow banking system", adding the risks from property sector exposure are still elevated givan an ongoing downturn in the sector and slowing GDP growth.
Nikkei +0.28% Hang Seng +0.88% Shanghai +0.35%

RUB $65.41 RUB €75.72 WTI $47.52 (-0.54%) Brent $49 CHF 0.8600 EURCHF 0.9960

EUR$ 1.1579 S&P +0.22% EuroStoxx +0.55% Dax +0.30% SMI +0.09%

Macro :
- Samaras Says ECB’s QE Program Is Relief for Greek People
- ECB Said to Approve Emergency Funding Line for Greek Banks: { http://reut.rs/1E36y6r}
- ECB’s Impact Limited, Goldman’s Pill Tells Boersen-Zeitung


Keep an eye on :
- ABBN VX : ABB CEO Spiesshofer Sees No Headcount Losses Due to SNB Move
- BARC LN : New York AG Expands ‘Dark Pool’ Complaint Against Barclays
- BG/ LN : could be subject to a £12-a-share break-up bid from Exxon Mobil or Brazil’s Petrobas.
- BMW GY : BMW Appoints New Heads of German Sales, Mini and Chinese Units
- GLI GY : DMG Mori Makes Offer for DMG Mori Seiki No Par Value Bearer Shrs, E27.50 per DMG Mori Seiki AG shr, corresponds to a premium of ~28.65% on the volume-weighted-average shr price over past 3 mos
- ELE SM : Endesa, Alkermes, Bosch May be Added to MSCI Indexes: SocGen
- ENEL IM : Enel CEO Says 4 Bid Received for Slovak Assets, 5 for Romania
- GET FP : Eurotunnel 2014 Revenue Rises 7% to EU1.21b, Est. EU1.18b
- FER SM : Ferrovial Says It’s Preferred Bidder for Canada Highway Project
- FNC IM: Finmeccanica CEO to Carry on Talks, Seeking Swift Conclusion
- G IM : Generali Is Not in Acquisition Mood, CEO Says in Davos
- GLEN LN : Glencore could consider approach for South32 before spinoff from BHP Billiton
- GSK LN : Pfizer CEO Read Admires Glaxo, Could Also Consider Actavis: FT
- HAV FP : Facebook’s Atlas Ad Group, Havas in Marketing Pact: Atlas
- IMT LN : U.K. Govt to Bring Forward Plain Cigarette Pack Legislation: BBC
- INDUC SS : Industrivaerden Chairman to Resign From Boards in 2015, SVD Says
- LOGN SW : Logitech 3Q Op. Income $65m; Increases FY Profit Outlook
- NOVN VX : Novartis Wins FDA Approval for New Type of Psoriasis Treatment
- SIK VX : Sika Holder Group Reaffirms Concerns, Requests Special Measures
- SLIGR NA : Sligro 2014 Ebit Misses Ests., Expects to Outperform Mkt in ’15
- SON PL : Sonae 2014 Preliminary Sales Rise 2.7% to EU4.751b
- TEF SM : Qatar’s QIA in Talks Over Telefonica Stake: El Confidencial
- UHR VX : Swatch Won’t Move Production Abroad, CEO Hayek Tells Weltwoche