>>> CNHI - Reports Q4 $0.12 v $0.12e, R$8.37B v $8.21Be - Guides initial FY15 (G

Reports Q4 $0.12 v $0.12e, R$8.37B v $8.21Be 
- Guides initial FY15 (GAAP) $ v $0.50e, Rev $ v $32.3Be
- Guides initial FY15 Net sales of Industrial Activities of approximately $28B, operating margin of Industrial Activities between 6.1-6.4%
- Guides initial FY15 Net industrial debt at the end of 2015 $2.2-2.4B v $2.7B FYE2014

- Operating margin 4.7%, +400bps y/y
- CEO: Company expects improved profitability in Commercial Vehicles and Construction Equipment, coupled with structural cost improvement measures from the Company's Efficiency Program now extended to Agricultural Equipment. These actions are expected to buffer, but not fully offset the negative impact from the continuation of challenging trading conditions in the row crop sector of the agricultural industry, and the impact of the recent significant appreciation of the US dollar against the Company's other trading currencies, allowing the Company to hold operating margin unless there are further currency deteriorations from the current rate levels outside the United States.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: MLNX +13.9%, FLEX +8.3%, BLDP +7.8%, COH +7%, NSPH +6.5%, EXTR +4.3%, AZPN+4.2%, DOW +4.2%, AVP +4%, CTXS +3.9%, MCD +3.2%, LVS +3.2%, ISIL +3.2%, PENN +3.2%,SHOR +3.1%, NOW +3%, POT +2.8%, CMPR +2.6%, HP +2.6%, CL +2.6%, RDY +2.2%, F +2%, BEAV+1.7%, SWK +1.6%, BX +1.6%, SLXP +1.3%, MEOH +1.3%, VAR +1.2%, MX +1.1%, HOLX +1.1%,CHKP +1.1%, FLS +0.9%, MD +0.9%

Gapping down: ATK -37.5%, GEVO -31.6%, CLB -14.9%, QCOM -8.2%, QRVO -6%, BABA -6%,DWCH -5%, REXR -3.7%, FTNT -3.5%, TSM -3.1%, PRE -3%, XNPT -2.7%, ALXN -2.7%, HSY -2.7%,OMER -2.6%, SWFT -2.4%, TGI -2.3%, RDS.A -2.2%, CAVM -2.1%, NOK -1.8%, VRTX -1.7%, QGEN-1.7%, PRXL -1.7%, RGLD -1.7%, RTN -1.5%, ALGT -1.4%, KEX -1.3%, EPD -1%, TSCO -0.9%

(BFW) Sky to Offer Mobile Services Over O2 U.K.’s Network From 2016


Sky to Offer Mobile Services Over O2 U.K.’s Network From 2016
2015-01-29 11:31:06.220 GMT


By Sam Chambers
(Bloomberg) -- Sky and Telefonica have agreed a multi-year
deal in which Sky will offer mobile voice and data services over
O2 U.K.’s 2G, 3G and 4G networks from 2016.
* Jan 21: Bloomberg News reported Sky was said to be in talks
with Telefonica about buying access to its wireless network
* NOTE: Telefonica is in exclusive talks with Hutchison
Whampoa over the sale of O2 U.K. for as much as GBP10.25b
* NOTE: U.K. wireless mkt. share details here


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To contact the reporter on this story:
Sam Chambers in London at +44-20-3525-2021 or
schambers7@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-3525-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net

>>> Time Warner Cable misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line -- expects the Comca

Time Warner Cable misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line -- expects the Comcast merger to close soon;

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.03 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $2.08; revenues rose 3.8% year/year to $5.79 bln vs the $5.81 bln consensus.
  • Adjusted OIBDA for the fourth quarter and full year of 2014 increased 5.6% and 3.1%, respectively, driven by revenue growth, partially offset by year-over-year increases in operating expenses of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively.
  • Fourth-quarter subscriber performance in each category below was the best in at least seven years. Total customer relationship net additions of 67,000 Residential high-speed data net additions of 168,000 Residential voice net additions of 295,000 -- best fourth quarter ever Residential video net declines of 38,000 Residential triple play net additions of 273,000 -- best fourth quarter ever.
  • "We continue to expect the Comcast (CMCSA) merger to close soon; until then, we remain one hundred percent committed to executing our plan."

(BFW) Afren Capital Raise Not Likely; at Mercy of Bondholders: Oriel

Afren Capital Raise Not Likely; at Mercy of Bondholders: Oriel
2015-01-29 09:18:29.863 GMT


By Benjamin Dow
(Bloomberg) -- Afren falls as much as 15% to 4p in ninth
day of declines; vol. is 1.5x 3-mo. daily avg.
* Oriel cuts PT 93% to 2.5p; keeps “negative stance” on
shares, says longtime shareholders reportedly selling out,
co. can’t count on their support; sees Seplat bid unlikely
on Jan. 30 (deadline)
* Says equity investment only makes sense if investor believes
in $100/bbl oil and/or co. will unlock more value via
exploration
* Doubts investors will take up assumptions given default
risks, while under same assumptions there are
“attractive investments in plenty of other names”
* Believes that co.’s $235m of restricted cash, production
30kboe/d mean loan facility holder likely able to
recover in full; “may not be the case” for bondholders
* Believes that co.’s $235m of restricted cash, production
30kboe/d mean loan facility holder likely able to
recover in full; “may not be the case” for bondholders</li></ul>
* Short interest continues to rise; at 9.4% of shares
outstanding as of Jan. 27, according to markit; see story on
hedge funds shorting shares
* Nomura, Goldman suspended coverage of shares yesterday
* NOTE: Yesterday, JPMorgan said co. may need to raise $450m
of funding
* NOTE: Standard Life cut holding to 27.8m shares vs 75.3m
previously


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Gaurav Panchal

>>> Total - Has signed a new 40-year onshore concession agreement with the Supr

Has signed a new 40-year onshore concession agreement with the Supreme Petroleum Council of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi 

Granting Total a 10% participating interest effective January 1, 2015. The concession covers the fifteen principal onshore oil fields of Abu Dhabi and represents more than half of the Emirates production.The new concession will be operated by the Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Petroleum Operations Limited (ADCO), a new operating company in which Total will be a 10% shareholder. Total has also been appointed Asset Leader for the Bu Hasa and Southeast (Sahil, Asab, Shah, Qusahwira and Mender fields) fields, which represent about two-thirds of ADCOs production.

In 2015, ADCOs expected production is around 1.6 million barrels of oil per day (Mb/d), with an objective to increase output to 1.8 Mb/d from 2017.

(Oilprice.com) U.S. Shale Boom May Come To Abrupt End


U.S tight oil production from shale plays will fall more quickly than most assume.
Why? High decline rates from shale reservoirs is given. The more interesting reasons are the compounding effects of pad drilling on rig count and poorer average well performance with time.
Rig productivity has increased but average well productivity has decreased. Every rig used in pad drilling has approximately three times the impact on the daily production rate as a rig did before pad drilling. At the same time, average well productivity has decreased by about one-third.
This means that production rates will fall at a much higher rate today than during previous periods of falling rig counts.
Most shale wells today are drilled from pads. One rig drills many wells from the same surface location, as shown in the diagram below

The Eagle Ford Shale play in South Texas is one of the major contributors to increased U.S. oil production. A few charts from the Eagle Ford play will demonstrate why I believe that U.S. production will fall sooner and more sharply than many analysts predict.
The first chart shows that the number of active drilling rigs (left-hand scale) in the Eagle Ford Shale play stabilized at approximately 200 rigs as pad drilling became common. The number of producing wells (lower scale), however, has continued to increase. This is because a single rig can drill many wells without taking the time to demobilize and remobilize. In other words, drilling has become more efficient as less time is needed to drill a greater number of wells.
The next chart below shows Eagle Ford oil production, the number of producing wells and the number of active drilling rigs versus time.
This chart shows that production growth has not kept pace with the rate of increase in new producing wells since mid-2012. That is because the performance of newer wells is not as good as earlier wells.
The final chart shows that the rate of daily production is now more dependent on the number of drilling rigs than on the number of producing wells. Rig productivity--the barrels per day per rig--has increased but average well productivity--the barrels per day per well--has decreased. In other words, production can only be maintained by drilling an ever-increasing number of wells.
Average rig productivity has almost tripled since early 2012. Average well productivity has decreased by one-third over the same period. This means that every rig taken out of service today has more than three times the impact on daily production as before pad drilling became common.
Most experts do not anticipate any significant decrease in U.S. tight oil production in the first half of 2015. Their analyses may not have accounted for the effect of pad drilling and the decrease in average well productivity.
Using the Eagle Ford Shale as an example, U.S. oil production should fall sooner and more sharply than many anticipate. This will be a good thing for oil price recovery but maybe not such a good thing for the future profitability of the plays.