(BFW) Afren Capital Raise Not Likely; at Mercy of Bondholders: Oriel


Afren Capital Raise Not Likely; at Mercy of Bondholders: Oriel
2015-01-29 09:18:29.863 GMT


By Benjamin Dow
(Bloomberg) -- Afren falls as much as 15% to 4p in ninth
day of declines; vol. is 1.5x 3-mo. daily avg.
* Oriel cuts PT 93% to 2.5p; keeps “negative stance” on
shares, says longtime shareholders reportedly selling out,
co. can’t count on their support; sees Seplat bid unlikely
on Jan. 30 (deadline)
* Says equity investment only makes sense if investor believes
in $100/bbl oil and/or co. will unlock more value via
exploration
* Doubts investors will take up assumptions given default
risks, while under same assumptions there are
“attractive investments in plenty of other names”
* Believes that co.’s $235m of restricted cash, production
30kboe/d mean loan facility holder likely able to
recover in full; “may not be the case” for bondholders
* Believes that co.’s $235m of restricted cash, production
30kboe/d mean loan facility holder likely able to
recover in full; “may not be the case” for bondholders</li></ul>
* Short interest continues to rise; at 9.4% of shares
outstanding as of Jan. 27, according to markit; see story on
hedge funds shorting shares
* Nomura, Goldman suspended coverage of shares yesterday
* NOTE: Yesterday, JPMorgan said co. may need to raise $450m
of funding
* NOTE: Standard Life cut holding to 27.8m shares vs 75.3m
previously


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To contact the reporter on this story:
Benjamin Dow in Moscow at +7-495-771-7735 or
bdow2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-3525-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Gaurav Panchal