>>> What to look at today - 4th of February 2015

Dow+1,76% S&p+1,44% Nasdaq+1,1% Russell+1,83% VIX @ 17.33 -10.8%
US MArket higher for the second consecutive day, S&P above its 50d MA, Greece news was one of the catalyst with the Crude continiung to trade higher (traded up to $54.14) $ 52.40 this morning. Energy sector was one of the main performesers +2.8%, materials followed the move +2.2%, like cons. disc. +2%...Volume were above average @ 958mil shares...After Hours Summary: ENTR +10%, TTWO +5.7%, DIS +4.2%, EW +4%, MYGN -15.4%, CMG -6.5%, GILD -5% following earnings/guidance...Disappointing PMIs from China and Hong Kong do not appear sufficiently potent to spoil the rally. China HSBC Services hit a 6-month low - tracking a 1-year low in official non-manufacturing figure posted over the weekend. HSBC chief economist noted slower pace of services expansion, reiterating preference for more easing measures to support growth in the coming months. Hong Kong PMI returned to contraction after popping above the 50-threshold for the first time in 5 months in December. HSBC economist stated Hong Kongs economy remains relatively subdued at the start of 2015, with slower growth domestically as well as in Mainland China continuing to weigh on demand...Support for the dovish BOJ camp with press-speculated appointment of QE-friendly Harada to the Board did not materialize in Parliament - presumably due to concern of a political challenge from the opposition. Instead, markets were treated to familiar rhetoric from PM Abe and BOJ Gov Kuroda. Abe said he expects the BOJ to proceed with bold easing policy, but would also contemplate changing Japan law guaranteeing central bank independence if warranted.
Nikkei +1.98% Hang Seng +0.43% Shanghai -0.97%

RUB $64.70 WTI $52.40 EURCHF 1.0602

EUR$ 1.1467 S&P -0.07% EuroStoxx +0.12% DAX +0.22% sMI +0.56%

Macro :
- S&P Cuts Various EU Bank Ratings on Unlikely Govt Support
- HSBC India Jan. Composite PMI 53.3 vs 52.9 in Dec.

Keep an eye on :
- AENA IPO : Aena Says IPO Price Range Increased to EU53-EU58/Share
- AF FP : Air France Postpones Meeting With Works Council Until Feb. 13
- BBVA SM : BBVA 4Q Net EU689M Vs EU849M Loss a Year Earlier
- BKIA SM : Spain State to Take on 62% of Bankia IPO Claims, Mundo Says
- BOSS GY : Hugo Boss 4Q, 2014 FX Adj. Sales, Profit Miss Ests.
- BOTHE SS : Bone Therapeutics Raises EU32.2 Mln in IPO at EU16/Shr
- MT NA : EU Steel Production Capacity Too High, Eder Tells Handelsblatt
- CSGN VX : Credit Suisse Group Cut to Bbb+ From A- by S&P, Outlook Stable
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Rating May Be Cut by S&P
- GEA GY : GEA Group 2014 Operating Ebitda Rises
- GJF NO : Gjensidige 4Q Pretax Profit NK1.16b vs Est. NK954m
- HDD GY : Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Posts 3Q Loss, Sees FY Rev. Down ~5%
- HNR1 GY : Hannover Re Says May Exceed 35%-40% Payout; Sticks to 2015 Goals
- KPN NA : KPN 4Q Sales, Ebitda Beat Estimates ,KPN Sees Ebitda Stabilizing as 4Q Sales Beat
- LUPE SS : Lundin Petroleum 4Q Net Loss Wider Than Est., Rev. Misses
- MC FP : LVMH Says Is ‘Relatively Confident’ on 2015, LVMH 2014 Fashion/Leather Organic Sales Beat, Watches Miss
- MHG NO : Marine Harvest 4Q Net NK109.8m vs NK1.29b Y/Y; Plans NK1.20 Div
- MELE BB : Melexis Sees 2015 Sales Growth of 8%-14% Using Stable FX Rate
- MOBB BB : Mobistar Forecast for Stable Ebitda Excludes Cable Offering Cost
- OSR GY : Osram Posts 1Q Loss on Restructuring Charges, Sales Rise
- UG FP : Peugeot in Talks to Buy Mister Auto Spare-Parts Website: Echos
- RNO FP / UG FP : France’s Royal Plans Certification for Clean Vehicles: Parisien
- SCYR SM : Sacyr Seeks Investors to Inject EU300M in Testa: Expansion
- SHBA SS : Handelsbanken Raises Dividend; Names Frank Vang-Jensen CEO
- GLE FP : Societe Generale to Exit Brazilian Consumer-Finance Activities
- SKY LN : Ofcom to Reject Bid to Block Premier League Auction: Telegraph
- SLGP US : Valeant Said to Explore Takeover of Salix Pharma
- SCOR FP : Scor, Alleghany Weighing Bids for PRE: Insurance Insider
- SIE GY : Siemens May Cut 5,000 to 10,000 Jobs, Handelsblatt Reports
- STO NO :
- SYNN VX : Syngenta 2014 Ebitda $2.93b, Est. $2.86b; Sees ’15 Ex-FX In Line
- FP FP : Total Loses $2B on Each $10 Decline in Oil Prices: Al Hayat
- DG FP : Vinci Gets Services Contract for Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 4th of February 2015

>>> Up
*DIASORIN RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*EUROCASH RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*GETINGE RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*SECHE ENVIRONNEMENT RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*ZACHODNI RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS

>>> Down
*ALLREAL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*COLOPLAST CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*ERICSSON CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*FRESENIUS SE CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*IPSEN CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*LUFTHANSA CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
*MONEYSUPERMARKET.COM CUT TO SELL VS REDUCE AT NUMIS
*SARTORIUS CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*TIGER BRANDS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*BOOKER RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG, PT 189P
*EUROCASH RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG, PT 40 ZLOTY
*JERONIMO MARTINS RATED NEW SELL AT BERENBERG, PT EU8
*METRO AG RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG, PT EU30

>>> Call
>> Stock
*NATIXIS NOTE AT EXANE : M&A or CAPITAL RETURN ? Likely Both - Note attached
*BASF ADDED, AKZO NOBEL REMOVED FROM CITI FOCUS LIST EUROPE
*ATLANTIA REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST, STAYS BUY
*U.K. WATER STKS, DRAX, VESTAS, NORDEX LIKELY M&A TGTS: GOLDMAN Note attached
*ING REMOVED FROM CREDIT SUISSE EUROPE FOCUS LIST
*SCOR REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST, STAYS BUY Note attached
* SAFRAN MODEL UPDATED AT GS - Note attached

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: Hong Kong, China Services PMIs decline further; RBNZ's Wheeler clarifies neutral stance

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA JAN HSBC SERVICES PMI: 51.8 V 53.4 PRIOR; 6-month low
- (HK) HONG KONG JAN HSBC PMI: 49.4 V 50.3 PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN JAN MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 51.3 V 51.7 PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN DEC LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN AIG PERFORMANCE OF SERVICES INDEX: 49.9 V 47.5 PRIOR (11th consecutive contraction)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 2 V 6 PRIOR; Conditions +4 v +4 prior
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Q/Q: 1.2% (matches 7-quarter high) V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.0%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.7% V 5.3%E; Participation rate 69.7% v 69.1%e
- (UK) UK JAN BRC SHOP PRICE INDEX Y/Y: -1.3% V -1.6%E (20TH CONSECUTIVE DECLINE)

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +2.1%, S&P/ASX +0.6%, Kospi +0.7%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.9%, Mar S&P500 -0.1% at 2,040

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold +0.2% at $1,263, Mar crude oil -1.7% at $52.13/brl
- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +6.1M (4th week of build) v +3.5Me, GASOLINE: +2.0M v +0e, DISTILLATE: +0.28M v -1.5Me
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 9,963 tonnes from 9,967 tonnes priors
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.8 tonnes to 764.9 tonnes; first fall since Jan 21st
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥400B in 3-5yr JGBs and ¥400B in 5-10yr JGBs
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$800M in 3.25% bonds due 2025; Avg yield: 2.3998%; Bid-to-cover: 3.02x

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Subsiding worries over Greece and a week-long rally in oil prices are lifting the broader sentiment, with 2nd consecutive session of strong gains on Wall Street boosting regional indices in Asia. Nikkei225 is leading the rally with a 2% gain, helped by a 50pip rise in USD/JPY toward the 118 level. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are also responding to risk-on flows, rising 70pips and 140pips respectively from session lows.

- Disappointing PMIs from China and Hong Kong do not appear sufficiently potent to spoil the rally. China HSBC Services hit a 6-month low - tracking a 1-year low in official non-manufacturing figure posted over the weekend. HSBC chief economist noted slower pace of services expansion, reiterating preference for more easing measures to support growth in the coming months. Hong Kong PMI returned to contraction after popping above the 50-threshold for the first time in 5 months in December. HSBC economist stated Hong Kongs economy remains relatively subdued at the start of 2015, with slower growth domestically as well as in Mainland China continuing to weigh on demand.

- In New Zealand, Gov Wheeler clarified the RBNZ will keep rates at current level for some time, and only a weakening in domestic demand would warrant a rate cut. Wheeler added house price inflation appears to be rising in Auckland, and New Zealand economic prospects appear to be positive. Traders positioning for a more dovish speech in the wake of the surprise introduction of an easing bias in last week's decision covered their shorts, sending NZD/USD sharply higher. In Australia, PM Abbott lauded lower interest rates delivered by the RBA yesterday in hopes of forestalling a potential leadership challenge from members of his own party.

- Support for the dovish BOJ camp with press-speculated appointment of QE-friendly Harada to the Board did not materialize in Parliament - presumably due to concern of a political challenge from the opposition. Instead, markets were treated to familiar rhetoric from PM Abe and BOJ Gov Kuroda. Abe said he expects the BOJ to proceed with bold easing policy, but would also contemplate changing Japan law guaranteeing central bank independence if warranted. In turn, Kuroda remarked he still believes CPI would likely reach 2% around FY15, but also said he never claimed the inflation objective would be achieved in exactly 2 years. USD/JPY pared the initial session gains toward 118 to retreat to 117.75.

***Equities***
US markets:
- ENTR: To be Acquired by MaxLinear for $3.01/shr in transaction valued at $287M in cash and stock; +10.0% afterhours
- TTWO: Reports Q3 $1.87 v $1.52e, R$954M v $782Me; +7.2% afterhours
- SJM: To Acquire Big Heart Pet Brands in $5.8B cash and stock deal; +4.8% afterhours
- DIS: Reports Q1 $1.27 v $1.08e, R$13.4B v $12.9Be; +3.8% afterhours
- WDC: *RAISES DIVIDEND 25% TO $0.50/SHR, IMPLIED YIELD 2.0%; AUTHORIZES ADDITIONAL $2.0B OF SHARE REPURCHASES (8.8% of market cap); +0.3% afterhours
- BP: CFTC preparing fraud case against BP - filing; -0.5% afterhours
- M: Raises FY14 $4.35-4.37 v $4.35e (prior guided $4.25-4.35); -1.5% afterhours
- AFL: Reports Q4 $1.29 (adj) v $1.30e, R$5.51B v $5.52Be; -1.7% afterhours
- WYNN: Reports Q4 $1.20 v $1.44e, R$1.14B v $1.24Be; -4.4% afterhours
- GILD: Reports Q4 $2.43 v $2.17e, R$7.2B v $6.69Be; Announces additional $15B buyback (9% of market cap); Initiates $0.43 dividend (indicated yield 1.6%); -4.5% afterhours
- CMG: Reports Q4 $3.84 v $3.79e, R$1.07B v $1.07Be; -6.4% afterhours
- MYGN: Reports Q2 $0.40 v $0.35e, R$184.4M v $183Me; Lowers FY15 $1.50-1.55 v $1.85e, R$730-740M v $790Me (prior $1.90-2.00, R$800-820M); -14.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Maoye International Holdings 848.HK +% (FY14 guidance); Wynn Macau 1128.HK +% (Q4 results); Panasonic Corporation 6752.JP -0.1% (Q3 results)
- Financials: China Merchants Securities 600999.CN +% (received approval for SSE 50 ETF options market making business); Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group 8306.JP +6.4% (9-month results); Mitsui & Co Ltd 8031.JP +1.7% (9-month results)
- Materials: Whitehaven Coal WHC.AU +6.3% (CEO comments on coal price)
- Energy: CNOOC 883.HK +% (FY14 production guidance); Senex Energy SXY.AU +12.9% (drilling report)
- Industrials: Mitsubishi Motors 7211.JP -0.4% (9-month results); Nufarm Ltd NUF.AU -2.0% (plans cost cut and capex cut); Downer EDI DOW.AU +4.2% (awarded contract)
- Technology: Sumitomo Electric Industries 5802.JP -2.9% (9-month results); Sharp 6753.JP -4.9% (9-month results)

WSJ : TransAsia Plane Crashes in Taiwan

TransAsia Plane Crashes in Taiwan
At Least Two People Killed

TAIPEI—A TransAsia Airways Corp. plane carrying 58 people, including five crew members, crashed in a river in Taiwan’s capital Wednesday morning, killing at least two people, according to an official.

Lin Tyh-ming, director-general of the civil aeronautics administration, said 16 people have been rescued so far.

TransAsia couldn’t be reached for comment.

The ATR-72 turboprop took off from Taipei’s Songshan Airport at 10:45 a.m. local time and crashed en route to the outlying island of Kinmen, according to local TV. Television footage showed wreckage of a plane floating in the Keelung River in Taipei.

An official from the Taipei Fire Department department said at least 13 people have been rescued so far and first responders are continuing the rescue efforts.

Witnesses told the fire department that they saw two bodies falling from the sky around the time of the crash. They also said pieces of plane debris hit a taxi on the ground. The driver was taken to the hospital.

Advertisement

This is the second TransAsia plane crash in seven months. In July, Flight 222 heading from Taipei to Penghu, another outlying island, crashed a few minutes before landing, killing 48 people. TransAsia is Taiwan’s third-largest carrier by fleet size.

Nine members of the Safety Aviation Council have been dispatched to the scene of the crash.

>>> US Close Dow+1,76% S&p+1,44% Nasdaq+1,1% Russell+1,83%

Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Reclaims 50-Day Average

The stock market registered its second consecutive advance with the S&P 500 climbing 1.4% to retake its 50-day moving average (2,044). The price-weighted Dow (+1.8%) fared a bit better while the Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%) underperformed.

Equities displayed strength from the get-go after markets in Europe responded positively to a Financial Times report suggesting Greece will soften its negotiating stance; however, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said there has been no ‘U-turn' in Greece's position while German Chancellor Angela Merkel has set expectations for a drawn out process, saying the ongoing talks will ‘drag on for months.' In addition, a handful of German lawmakers have voiced their displeasure with the position being assumed by Greece. With no resolution in sight, another chapter in the European saga will be written tomorrow when Mr. Varoufakis meets with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in Frankfurt.

For the time being, the market happily continued retracing its losses from January. The S&P 500 narrowed its quarter-to-date decline to 0.4% with all ten sectors ending in the green.

Once again, the energy sector (+2.8%) held the lead throughout the session with help from crude oil, which soared 7.0% to $53.04/bbl. In all likelihood, a short squeeze contributed to the surge, but so did better than expected earnings from BP (BP 41.10, +1.24). However, it is worth mentioning that the industry giant plans to cut its 2015 capital expenditure budget by 13.0% to $20 billion.

Similar to energy, materials (+2.2%) and consumer discretionary (+2.2%) jumped more than 2.0% while two of the remaining three cyclical groups also finished ahead of the broader market.

The discretionary sector received broad support with Office Depot (ODP 9.27, +1.64) charging higher by 21.5% after The Wall Street Journal reported the company has been in talks with Staples (SPLS 19.01, +1.87) about a potential merger.

Elsewhere, the technology sector (+1.0%) lagged throughout the session, but was able to settle not far behind the broader market. Chipmakers displayed relative strength (PHLX Semiconductor Index +1.8%), but several top-weighted components like Apple (AAPL 118.57, -0.06), Facebook (FB 75.40, +0.41), and Google (GOOGL 533.30, +1.10) struggled to pull away from their flat lines.

Similar to the tech sector, the Nasdaq spent the day behind the broader market. Biotechnology factored into the underperformance with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 317.79, -1.79) falling 0.6% while the health care sector (+0.7%) settled near the bottom of the leaderboard.

Treasuries spent the day in a steady retreat, sending the 10-yr yield higher by 11 basis points to 1.78%.

Today's participation was well above average with more than 958 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to Factory Orders:

* Factory orders declined 3.4% in December after declining a downwardly revised 1.7% (from -0.7%) in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected a drop of 2.0% 

* While the headline decline in factory orders was clear miss in terms of expectations, the underlying data should provide a boost to the second estimate to Q4 2014 GDP  * Shipments of nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, were much stronger than reported in the advance release. Instead of declining 0.2% in December, shipments increased 0.2%. Since shipments factor into GDP calculations, the upward revision will positively contribute to economic growth 

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while the ADP Employment Change for January will cross the wires at 8:15 ET (consensus 230K). The day's data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of the ISM Services Index for January (consensus 56.5).  

* Nasdaq Composite -0.2% YTD  * S&P 500 -0.4% YTD  * Russell 2000 -0.6% YTD  * Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.9% YTD

(BN) Argentine Prosecutor Says Nisman Weighed Arresting President (2)


Argentine Prosecutor Says Nisman Weighed Arresting President (2)
2015-02-03 19:25:39.268 GMT


(Adds opinion poll in 12th paragraph.)

By Daniel Cancel and Pablo Gonzalez
(Bloomberg) -- A day after Argentina’s cabinet chief tore
up a newspaper article, ridiculing the story that said deceased
prosecutor Alberto Nisman had considered the arrest of the
president, the investigator into his death confirmed the report.
A draft document calling for the detention of President
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and members of her government was
found in Nisman’s apartment after his body was discovered with a
bullet to the head on Jan. 18, prosecutor Viviana Fein said.
“The drafts are there, they’ve been incorporated as part
of my role,” Fein said in a radio interview on Vorterix. “They
have to do with the allegations by doctor Nisman, as was
anticipated by the media, seeking the arrest of the president.”
Cabinet Chief Jorge Capitanich on Feb. 2 tore up a copy of
the article published in Clarin on Sunday that said Nisman, 51,
had sought Fernandez’s arrest for trying to cover up the alleged
involvement of Iranian officials in a 1994 bombing in exchange
for trade benefits. Nisman’s death, a day before he was due to
present evidence to congress, has roiled Argentine politics and
captivated public opinion.
Nisman charged members of Iran and Hezbollah in 2006 with
organizing the bombing that killed 85 people and issued eight
arrest warrants. Seven years later, Fernandez signed a
memorandum of understanding with the Iranians to set up a joint
panel to investigate the case.
According to Nisman, the aim of the accord was for Iranian
officials to be taken off Interpol’s wanted list. In exchange,
Argentina would export grains and meat to Iran and receive oil.

Trash Can

The draft document that included the request for the arrest
of Fernandez, was dated June 2014 and was found in the trash can
of Nisman’s house, Clarin reported.
Fein said a statement published Feb. 2 by the general
prosecutor’s office denying the existence of the draft was an
error. It was not part of the broader dossier of evidence
against Fernandez published on the Internet, he said.
The discovery of Nisman’s body slumped against the door of
his bathroom in a locked house surrounded by security agents
triggered a series of conspiracy theories. Prosecutor Fein said
today his apartment building in the upscale neighborhood of
Puerto Madero had “serious anomalies” that allowed for people
to enter and leave without being detected.

Fernandez’s Reputation

Fernandez has said she is convinced Nisman was killed in
order to dirty the reputation of her government, while others
suspect he was murdered to halt his investigation.
The president has ordered the intelligence agency to be
overhauled after indicating that former spies fed Nisman with
false information to promote his case against her.
With just nine months left in office, Fernandez’s image is
suffering from the scandal. A poll conducted by Management & Fit
published Feb. 1 showed that 84.5 percent of the 1,000 people
surveyed thought the Nisman case will either largely or somewhat
affect her image.
Capitanich, who spoke today at the same time as Fein, said
Clarin’s reporting of the case was another “operation by the
press, looking through the trash.” He didn’t say if the draft
document existed or not.
Secretary General Anibal Fernandez said Fein’s
contradictions were an “embarrassment” and asked whether
someone had given her the document. While questioning the
report’s authenticity, he told La Red radio station that its
discovery in the garbage was proof that Nisman knew his
accusations wouldn’t stand up in court.
“Nisman must have realized what rubbish it was and so he
had to backpedal,” Fernandez said.


For Related News and Information:
Top Argentina news: TOP AR <GO>
Top news from Latin America: TOPL <GO>

--With assistance from Charlie Devereux in Buenos Aires.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Daniel Cancel in Buenos Aires at +54-11-4321-7736 or
dcancel@bloomberg.net;
Pablo Gonzalez in Buenos Aires at +54-11-4321-7731 or
pgonzalez49@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Andre Soliani at +55-61-3329-1605 or
asoliani@bloomberg.net
Philip Sanders

(BN) Staples Merger Offers Chance to Avoid RadioShack Fate: Real M&A


Staples Merger Offers Chance to Avoid RadioShack Fate: Real M&A
2015-02-03 20:17:32.964 GMT


(For a Real M&A column news alert: {SALT REALMNA <GO>}.)

By Tara Lachapelle
(Bloomberg) -- A merger of Staples Inc. and Office Depot
Inc. may help them weather the competition from online and big-
box retailers in a way that RadioShack Corp. couldn’t.
The three companies were all hit hard in the past decade by
discount-offering giants such as Amazon.com Inc. and Wal-Mart
Stores Inc. Their fates diverged this week. RadioShack is
preparing to file for bankruptcy protection, while the other two
-- in a less dire situation -- are considering combining.
Staples and Office Depot shares are trading Tuesday at
prices they haven’t reached in years as investors show support
for their potential merger, which would consolidate the No. 1
and 2 office-supply chains. Analysts estimate $1 billion to $2
billion of costs could be cut through the deal, which may give
the combined company some room to lower the prices of its
products in hopes of drawing in shoppers.
“From a financial standpoint and from a competition
standpoint it makes sense,” Joseph Feldman, an analyst for
Telsey Advisory Group in New York, said in a phone interview.
“Shareholders on both sides are cheering the deal. It probably
would be a good thing to see happen for the industry and for
both companies.”

Approval Odds

The question is whether the merger would secure approval
from antitrust regulators, though analysts are leaning toward
the idea that it can. Office Depot purchased OfficeMax Inc. in
2013, so a subsequent deal between Office Depot and Staples
would leave just one major office-supply chain.
The companies can argue that the competition is far broader
and now includes Amazon, Costco Wholesale Corp., Wal-Mart and
Target Corp. That’s something the U.S. Federal Trade Commission
-- the same agency that blocked Staples from buying Office Depot
in 1997 -- noted in its approval of the OfficeMax acquisition.
“Our decision highlights that yesterday’s market dynamics
may be very different from the market dynamics of today,” the
FTC said in its closing letter about the Office Depot-OfficeMax
transaction in November 2013.
That analysis “doesn’t leave the commission a lot of
room” to challenge a Staples merger today, said Morris Bloom,
an antitrust lawyer at Axinn, Veltrop, & Harkrider LLP in
Washington.
“The fact this merger is of the remaining two office-
supplies stores should not lead to anticompetitive effects
because consumers have more choices than the super-supply
stores,” said Bloom, a former FTC lawyer.

Activist Push

Starboard Value, which has stakes in both Staples and
Office Depot, has been urging the retailers to combine, which
has helped lift the shares over the past couple of months.
The FTC’s decision to allow Office Depot and OfficeMax to
combine “probably encouraged Starboard to push for the
merger,” said Chris Pultz, a portfolio manager at Kellner
Capital, an event-driven investment firm in New York. “They
will probably get a second request from the FTC, but I find it
hard to believe that they would have a case to block the
transaction.”
Becoming one company isn’t a perfect long-term solution.
Even though their outlook isn’t nearly as grim as RadioShack’s,
office and school supplies are increasingly a commodity business
and it will still be difficult to match competitors’ low prices
without eroding earnings, said Brian Yarbrough, an analyst for
Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis.
In the most recent back-to-school shopping season, Staples’
school supplies cost 53 percent more than an identical basket of
goods at Wal-Mart and Target, according to a study by Bloomberg
Intelligence in August.

Deal Gains

Shareholders would benefit from a deal because it would
give a pop to Office Depot’s stock price and there would be
synergies for Staples, Yarbrough said.
“But in the longer run, I just don’t see how this combined
company is any better off,” he said. “Starboard cares about
one thing: this deal going through. Five years down the road
they’re not going to be anywhere near this company, they’ll be
long gone.”
And don’t forget what happened after Sears Holdings Corp.
and Kmart merged in 2005. The deal was an attempt to stem
falling sales and fend off Wal-Mart. Since that transaction
closed, Sears has lost three-quarters of its value, continued to
suffer revenue declines, shut stores, eliminated jobs and sold
off assets to raise money as it burns through cash.
“Merging two bad retailers in a tough environment doesn’t
make one good retailer,” Yarbrough said.

For Related News and Information:
Staples Would Get 60% Boost From Office Depot Takeover: Real M&A
Staples, Office Depot Surge on Report of Merger Discussions
RadioShack Said to Discuss Shutdown as Part of Sprint Deal
Real M&A columns: NI REALMNA <GO>
Top deal stories: DTOP <GO>
Merger calculator: MRGC <GO>

--With assistance from David McLaughlin in Washington.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Tara Lachapelle in New York at +1-212-617-8911 or
tlachapelle@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Beth Williams at +1-212-617-2307 or
bewilliams@bloomberg.net
Elizabeth Wollman

>>> CRH positioned for Canadian buys after Holcim/Lafarge deal

CRH positioned for Canadian buys after Holcim/Lafarge deal

CRH (CRH:ID) will be well placed to pursue further Canada-based acquisitions after agreeing to buy certain assets from the Lafarge (LG:FP) and Holcim (HOLN:VX) merger, CEO Albert Manifold said Monday. He added that CRH would keep its options open regarding possible divestments.

On the conference call held to discuss the deal, Manifold said the Canadian assets were a good fit for CRH’s strong US position as the largest player in asphalt, aggregates and building materials.

The CEO explained that the deal gave the Ireland-based building materials group the opportunity to buy businesses in adjacent and complementary markets, noting that it was purchasing well-located aggregates and cement assets in Ontario and Quebec, as well as important supply terminals in the Northern US.

“It also allows us to roll out our vertical integration and bolt-on strategy into Canada. These assets that we're acquiring are primarily located around big footprint assets of cement and aggregates. They are not vertically integrated downstream all that much,” Manifold continued. “But, of course, CRH is a vertically integrated building materials business. We make most of our money when we do those bolt-on add-on transactions. And this will give us a whole new market with which to roll out that acquisition model that had been so successful for CRH in the past.”

The CEO said the North American segment was a “crucial fit” for the company, which gave it the chance for value creation in its existing businesses and further acquisitions in Canada.

In the Q&A session, Goldman Sachs analyst Will Morgan asked if CRH would acquire further upstream assets to expand its cement footprint in the US or if it would focus on the downstream space. Manifold said that prior to the Lafarge/Holcim deal, the company had looked at many potential US-based cement investments but had not been able to acquire any at the right price.

“But with these assets, we've got the opportunity to acquire cement assets at a price where we can make returns. That's what's unusual about this. So if we can find cement assets going forward at the right price, of course we'll look at them,” the CEO added. “We don't need to be there (in cement). I think if the opportunity presents itself again, we'll look at it.”

Lafarge/Holcim deal

The company said Monday it would acquire certain assets from Lafarge and Holcim for an enterprise value of EUR 6.5bn. The deal will be funded by EUR 2bn in cash from the balance sheet, new debt and a 9.99% equity placing.

CRH had announced on 22 January that it was in discussions with France-based Lafarge and Switzerland-based Holcim regarding the acquisition of certain assets being disposed of in advance of their proposed merger.

A presentation slide displayed on Monday’s conference call said CRH expected the transaction to be completed in mid-2015, following the anticipated close of the Lafarge/Holcim merger in June.

Options open

In his prepared remarks on Monday’s call, the CEO said CRH would consider whether it wanted to keep all the assets from the transaction and its existing business, noting that some would likely be divested.

He added that CRH would take on a partner for some of these assets, either due to regulatory issues, such as in the Philippines where a local partner was required, or to balance its capital allocation towards investments in other parts of the world.

In the Q&A session, Morgan Stanley analyst Yuri Serov asked for further details of the potential partnerships. Manifold said he would not make definite statements about which assets it may or may not sell, explaining that he wanted to maintain flexibility.

“We focus on where we see the maximum value creation in these businesses,” he said. “And I've talked at length this morning about particular regions. I've also been relatively quiet about other regions. So I'll let you draw your own conclusions with regard to the fact that what we may dispose of.”

The CEO noted that there had been some speculation surrounding the company’s search for a financial sponsor in relation to the UK assets, with KKR & Co. named in that capacity.

“I can confirm we are in discussions with them,” Manifold said. “But what we're doing is we're assessing with them exactly the timing of our investment in this business over the next few years and how we would balance where the United Kingdom is in the construction cycle, and with our desire to allocate assets to that particular part of the cycle and what size and scale.”

He said if CRH did take on a financial sponsor as a partner, it would retain flexibility to return to the assets at a later stage. The CEO stressed that the company would not make any commitments on the matter but would update the market when a decision was made.

Asked if his comments suggested a stake sale of the UK assets rather than a disposal of the whole business, Manifold said all options were being considered.

A published report following the deal announcement, citing Manifold, said CRH was in discussions with KKR about partnering on some of Lafarge/Holcim’s UK assets. An unsourced published report dated 25 January had said CRH was joining forces with the private equity firm to avoid its own competition issues, which would likely have arisen from a sole bid. The latter report noted that KKR was particular interested in the UK assets being sold, including Lafarge Tarmac, believed to have a GBP 1.7bn (EUR 2.3bn) valuation.

Regional strategy

The CEO outlined the importance of the various regional segments of the Lafarge/Holcim deal during his prepared remarks on the 2 February call. Manifold said there were four distinct regional platforms: North America, comprising the US and Canada; Western Europe, including the UK, France and Germany; Central and Eastern Europe, composed of Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia; and the Philippines and Brazil in the Emerging Markets.

In terms of the Western Europe operations, Manifold said its acquired assets in Continental Europe were primarily located in the north-eastern part of France, which complemented CRH’s existing significant investment in Belgium and the Netherlands. He said entry into the Southern German markets complemented its Switzerland-based businesses, the company’s most profitable country after the US. The CEO said having complementary assets north of the Swiss border was crucially important and gave it a strong advantage.

Manifold said CRH was acquiring a UK business with market-leading positions in cement, aggregate, asphalt and concrete, which would plug into the company’s Western European network of cement operations in Ireland, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands.

In Central and Eastern Europe, the CEO said the acquisition would give CRH the opportunity to become one of the top cement players in Romania, the number one producer in Slovakia and number two in Hungary. He noted that this would complement its existing Polish and Ukrainian businesses and offer significant growth potential in the region. Manifold added that this new opportunity in Serbia would enable it to become the second largest cement company in a consolidated market and the largest heavy-side building material business in Central and Eastern Europe.

Finally, Manifold said CRH would look for opportunities to expand its presence in the coming year in the Philippines, a country that has a lot of barriers to entry and the best market in South Asia, along with Indonesia. He described the Brazilian assets as “a very solid business,” which it would assess going forward.

As previously reported, on the company’s 3Q14 sales and revenue call held in November 2014, the CEO said CRH would concentrate its M&A efforts on the US, with Europe also a key focus area. Manifold named Asia as part of the company’s medium- to long-term ambitions, adding that it did not expect to undertake “a multi-billion dollar play into the emerging regions now.”

Previous efforts

On Monday’s conference call, Manifold said the company had undergone a significant disposal program during the last year, having closed or agreed to deals generating around USD 900m of proceeds. He noted that CRH had sold these businesses at around 11x EBITDA and used the funds to reinvest in the company.

“And we will continue to deliver on that divestment program,” the CEO said. “When we overlay this portfolio (Lafarge/Holcim assets), that is on top of our existing portfolio of assets. We will go back and review our asset base with one eye on the future and one eye on value creation to see what the appropriate level of investment in the right regions and the right businesses at the right time of the cycle.”

CRH has made multiple disposals in the past five years, largely of European assets. In mid-December last year, the company sold the majority of its brickwork operations, including UK-based Ibstock and Pennsylvania-based Glen-Gery Brick to Bain Capital for EUR 522m. In November, CRH sold its ownership in Turkey-based cement and concrete businesses Denizli Cimento Sanayi ve Ticaret for EUR 321m.

CRH spent EUR 720m on 28 acquisitions in 2013, according to its annual report for the year. In September that year, the company completed its purchase of Lafarge’s Ukraine-based cement production company PJSC MykolaivCement for EUR 96m, one of its largest disclosed deals of the past half-decade prior to the Lafarge/Holcim transaction.

Advisory relationships

Davy Corporate Finance, Goodbody Corporate Finance, UBS Investment Bank, BofA Merrill Lynch and JPMorgan Cazenove are advising CRH on the Lafarge/Holcim deal.

For its earlier buys, the company has typically stayed in-house on the financial side, with in-country law firms used on several occasions.

CRH has used Royal Bank of Scotland for several disposals in the past half-decade, according to the Mergermarket M&A database. It used JPMorgan and Irish law firm Arthur Cox for its two most recent notable disposals. The latter was used for multiple earlier sales, with UK-based Simmons & Simmons also used on a number of deals. Linklaters was also retained for the brickwork operations sale.

On Monday’s call, CRH reported estimated net debt at year-end 2014 of around EUR 2.5bn, with its aggregated net debt post-transaction amounting to approximately EUR 7.5bn. The company has a market capitalization of EUR 17bn.