WSJ : Former Xstrata Chief Raises $5.6 Billion for Mining Deals

Former Xstrata Chief Raises $5.6 Billion for Mining Deals
Potential targets include assets from Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Anglo American

LONDON—Mining veteran Mick Davis looks poised to pull the trigger on some big deals at a time of cheap mineral prices and willing sellers.

The former Xstrata PLC chief executive has raised $5.6 billion for his mining fund, X2 Resources, and plans to start deploying cash in the next few months, according to people familiar with his plans. The people said that X2 has closed itself to new investors after having raised cash from sovereign-wealth funds, pension funds and private-equity firms such as TPG Capital.

Potential targets include assets held by mining giants such as Rio Tinto PLC, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Anglo American PLC, and X2 has held talks with all three companies, one of the people said. The companies declined to comment. X2 is expected to disclose on Thursday that it has wrapped up fund-raising.



X2’s emergence gives the mining industry something its executives and observers have long anticipated: a deal-savvy operator armed with a wad of cash and looking for acquisitions in an arena stricken by collapsing prices for commodities, such as iron ore.

Mr. Davis formed X2 in London in September 2013, about four months after taking part in the largest mining deal: the $29.5 billion Glencore PLC acquisition of Xstrata. Mr. Davis began raising money soon after he and several top lieutenants left Glencore.

“We continue to carefully review a number of opportunities in the sector in detail,” Mr. Davis said in a statement. “The long-term nature of our strategy provides us with the flexibility to target those opportunities where we see the greatest potential for value creation.”

X2 has $4 billion in so-called committed capital, which it can immediately deploy for deals, according to a person familiar with the terms. The remaining $1.6 billion in capital is conditional upon certain undisclosed requirements by the firm’s investors, the person said.

Some experts say Mr. Davis could find it hard to find enough solid mining assets for sale. Big miners are unlikely to dispose of quality mines, and X2 will have to compete with giants such as Glencore for other attractive deals. Mr. Davis’s backers say he put together a world-class portfolio at Xstrata and can do it again at X2.

In addition to assets at major miners, X2 is also looking at midtier miners in financial distress and junior mining outfits near production, according to the person familiar with the fund’s plans. It is looking at commodities such as copper, zinc and nickel, among others, in regions such as Latin America, the U.S. and Africa, the person said. An advisory board, whose members have committed at least $500 million apiece, will review the firm’s investment decisions.

Among its investors is Noble Group Ltd. , a Singapore-listed commodities trader whose shares have fallen sharply recently amid questions about its accounting practices. Noble has defended its accounting practices and said its auditors had signed off on its results.

The launch of X2’s fund comes during a long-running lull in deal-making activity in the mining industry, which is struggling as demand in China and elsewhere wanes.

Deal volume declined 23% to 544 in 2014 from the previous year, marking the fourth straight year of declining volume, according to consultants Ernst & Young LLP. The valuation of deals plunged even more, sliding 49% last year to $44.6 billion. Megadeals have been even more scarce, with just 11 deals of more than $1 billion in 2014, down from 18 in 2013, Ernst & Young reported.

The top of the latest deal cycle, which rode a wave of surging commodity prices, was marked by the Glencore-Xstrata tie up.

Other mining executives, such as former Vale CEO Roger Agnelli, have also embarked on fundraising campaigns. But so far little money has been spent amid uncertainty about the course of commodity prices.

Big mining companies such as BHP, Rio and Anglo haven’t signaled they plan major acquisitions. BHP is planning the opposite, spinning off some of its assets into a new midsize mining company called South32, whose value analysts have pegged at roughly $15 billion

Activity could heat up later this year, especially if firms such as X2 begin to deploy capital, some analysts and bankers say.

One major mining outfit X2 hasn’t discussed deals with is Glencore, the person familiar with the matter said. The Swiss miner and commodities trader opened talks with Rio about a takeover last year but was rebuffed. Glencore could approach Rio again in April. But recent declines in commodity prices central to Glencore’s business, such as copper and coal, could make a deal tough to pull off, market experts say.

Glencore still could be on the hunt for less-hard-to-swallow assets. If so, that potentially could pit Mr. Davis against Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg, a dynamic that would add some heat to what has been an ice-cold deals market in mining.

>>> US After Hours : RNDY +12.7%, PEIX +11.6%, BIOL +10.3%, ECR

After Hours Summary: RNDY +12.7%, PEIX +11.6%, BIOL +10.3%, ECR -16.6%, PCOM -9.8%, ALSK -5.3% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: RNDY +12.7%, PEIX +11.6%, BIOL +10.3%, HRTG +7.8%, MLR +6.9%, VSLR +5.5%, DAR +4.4%, SQNM +1.4%, TSE +1.3%, AXAS +1.2%, ALDW +0.6%, POWR +0.3%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CPRX +5.3% (Amifampridine phosphate for the treatment of congenital myasthenic syndromes granted FDA Orphan Designation status), GLDD +4.7% (awarded ~$134.5 mln Army contract), TGTX +4.2% (discloses terms of Global Collaboration with Checkpoint Therapeutics; to make an up-front payment of $500k), PCYC +3.1% (seeing reports that co has agreed to be acquired by Johnson & Johnson)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: ECR -16.6%, PCOM -9.8%, ALSK -5.3%, SMTC -5.3%, CCRN -4%, HRB -3.1%, ERJ -2.6%, CPE -1.3%, MOMO -0.8%, PPO -0.6%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: VNDA -7.3% (announced tradipitant Phase 2 proof of concept study results for chronic pruritus in atopic dermatitis: no significant differences seen between treatment groups due to high placebo effect), ECA -3.8% (announced agreement with underwriters syndicate for bought deal purchase of ~85.62 mln common shares of its common stock for C$14.60/share; ~C$1.25 billion in gross proceeds expected), ARI -2.9% (announced public offering of 10 mln shares of common stock), NSR -2.7% (released a statement on the LNPA vendor selection; said the process has "been botched procedurally"), LF -1.5% (disclosed that on February 27, 2015, Sarah A. Mason, Corporate Controller and Principal Accounting Officer notified the Company that she is resigning from the Company, effective March 20, 2015) 

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: China unveils soft 2015 GDP target of "around" 7%, inflation of about 3%


***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN TRADE BALANCE (AUD): -980M V -925ME; 10th consecutive deficit
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.4% (3-month high) V 0.4%E
- (BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) RAISES SELIC TARGET RATE BY 50BPS TO 12.75%; AS EXPECTED

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Mar S&P500 +0.1% at 2,098

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold +0.3% at $1,204, Apr crude oil +0.3% at $51.78/brl

- (CN) PBoC to inject CNY40B in 7-day reverse repos (3rd consecutive injection); Drains net CNY145B this week v drained CNY142B prior
- (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥470.9B in foreign bonds v bought ¥166.2B in prior week; Foreign investors bought net ¥350.5B in Japan stocks v bought ¥289.3B in prior week
- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥0.64B in 1.5% (1.5% prior) 30-yr notes; Avg yield: 1.510% v 1.464% prior; Bid to cover: 3.67x v 2.67x prior

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- China National People's Congress opened today, and instead of waiting for the conclusion of the summit to unveil 2015 targets, Premier Li pulled the curtain on govt forecasts from the start. As anticipated, China is forecasting 2015 GDP at "around 7%" - a new 11-year low and a softer (more vague) target than "about" 7.5% tipped for 2014. CPI is now seen at around 3.0% vs 3.5% in 2014, while trade growth projections were knocked down to 6.0% from 7.5% in 2014. 2015 M2 is estimated at 12.0%, also a notable downgrade from 13% last year. Among the quantitative objectives, policymakers also outlined a range of qualitative initiatives - progress on cross-border yuan payment system, convertibility on capital account, broader use of FX reserves, more freely floating yuan, a deposit insurance system, land reform to stabilize housing consumption, end of price controls for pharmaceuticals, and curbing of overcapacity in the outdated coal industry to help reduce CO2 emissions. Pharma names and Yuan are among the early beneficiaries of this ambitious agenda, even though the broader mainland market is down by about 1%. Separately, PBoC adviser Chen also forecasted continued monetary policy easing in H1 of 2015, but no widening of Yuan trading band.

- AUD/USD was not particularly impacted by either China 2015 announcements or the local economic data out of Australia. January trade balance was a deficit for the 10th consecutive month but mainly because imports recovered with a 3% growth vs -1% in the prior month. Exports to China were down 16%, and shipments of oil and iron ore were down 24% and 9% respectively. Australia retail sales were in line with consensus, led by purchases of Clothing, footwear and personal accessory category of 0.7%. RBA Dep Gov Lowe noted AUD is now much closer to fair value but still too high for the state of the economy, elevated by easy policies of other central banks, adding households are reluctant to take on leverage and reiterating the central bank can ease further if needed.

- BOJ dissenter Kiuchi spoke at length about his continued opposition to the latest round of easing implemented last October, noting the costs of current policy have exceeded the benefits. Kiuchi expects private consumption to remain firm and exports to increase gradually, though he also admitted to holding a more cautious view on Japan's economic, price outlook than median BOJ projections. On inflation, Kiuchi said the 2% target is above appropriate levels for Japan economy and should instead be made more flexible. USD/JPY was up modestly on the session, rising about 20pips above 119.80.

***Equities***
US markets:
- PEIX: Reports Q4 $0.41 v $0.12e, R$256.2M v $242Me; +11.5% afterhours
- HRTG: Reports Q4 $0.66 v $0.38e, R$85.4M v $59.6Me; +8.0% afterhours
- MLR: Reports Q4 $0.50 v $0.21 y/y, R$147.8M v $108.3M y/y; Raises quarterly dividend 6.7% to $0.16; +6.9% afterhours
- MAC: Simon Property said to have made a takeover approach - financial press; +5.3% afterhours
- DAR: Reports Q4 $0.42 v $0.18 y/y, R$1.0B v $447.9M y/y; +3.7% afterhours
- MOMO: Reports Q4 -$0.10 v -$0.07 y/y, R$18.6M v $2.3M y/y; +0.4% afterhours
- GD: Increases dividend 11% to $0.69 from $0.62; +0.2% afterhours
- NKE: Announces Management Changes in Greater China and Global Footwear; flat afterhours
- ERJ: Reports Q4 Net profit $129M v $373M y/y, Rev $2.05B v $2.30B y/y; -2.6% afterhours
- HRB: Reports Q3 -$0.13 v -$0.28e, R$509M v $446Me; -4.0% afterhours
- VNDA: Announces Tradipitant Phase II Proof of Concept Study Results for Chronic Pruritus in Atopic Dermatitis; -5.7% afterhours

- PCYC: AbbVie to acquire Pharmacyclics, including its blockbuster product Imbruvica; for $261.25/share (cash and stock), total transaction value of approx $21B

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Phoenix Satellite Television Holdings 2008.HK +0.4% (FY14 guidance)
- Financials: Magellan Financial Group MFG.AU -1.4% (FUM as of end-Jan)
- Industrials: JFE Holdings 5411.JP +1.0% (to build plant in Abu Dhabi)
- Technology: ASM Pacific Technology 522.HK -4.5% (FY14 results)
- Healthcare: Eisai Co Ltd 4523.JP +5.7% (enters cooperation with Merck)

WSJ : AbbVie to Buy Pharmacyclics in $21 Billion Deal

AbbVie to Buy Pharmacyclics in $21 Billion Deal
Deal a mix of cash and stock for $261.25 a share

AbbVie Inc. said late Wednesday it will buy cancer biotech Pharmacyclics Inc. in a $21 billion deal that returns the Chicago drug company to deal-making after backing away from a big tax-lowering takeover last year.

The deal, a mix of cash and stock for $261.25 a share, would give AbbVie a presence in the multibillion-dollar blood-cancer market, and lessen its reliance on an aging rheumatoid-arthritis drug that accounts for most of its sales.

AbbVie had reached a $54 billion to buy Irish drug company Shire PLC last year, before abruptly walking away after the Obama administration took steps to deter such tax-lowering deals.

AbbVie said it expects the deal to close in the middle of this year.

Pharmacyclics, of Sunnyvale, Calif., sells a drug called Imbruvica with partner Johnson & Johnson . Imbruvica has been approved for two blood cancers—a rare lymphoma and a form of leukemia.

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In its first full year on sale, the pill had $548 million in world-wide net product revenue last year, Pharmacyclics reported. The company projects sales will reach $1 billion this year.

WSJ : Simon Property Makes Takeover Approaches to Macerich


Simon Property Makes Takeover Approaches to Macerich
Simon in November disclosed a 3.6% stake in rival company

Simon Property Group Inc. has made takeover approaches to Macerich Co. , seeking to combine two of the largest shopping-mall owners in the U.S.

The latest approach came within the past few weeks, and followed one late last year, according to people familiar with the matter. Simon hasn’t made a formal offer for Macerich, which has a market value of just over $13 billion, according to one of the people.

It isn’t clear how receptive Macerich might be to a deal, but in recent weeks the company has been discussing a potential takeover defense with its advisers, some of the people said.

The latest overture falls early in a March window to nominate directors to Macerich’s board, which could give Simon a pathway to go hostile should the company rebuff its advances. Still, real-estate investment trusts like Macerich are notoriously difficult takeover targets, in part because of various state laws that protect them from unsolicited bids.

In Maryland, where Macerich and many other REITs are incorporated, state law affords them antitakeover protections that can slow down hostile suitors and limit their ability to accumulate shares without the consent of the target company’s board.

In November, Simon disclosed a 3.6% stake in Macerich, a move many investors saw as the first step in a takeover attempt. The disclosure, which sent Macerich’s share price soaring to a multiyear high, came just days after the company struck a deal to buy out Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan’s interest in five of its highest-quality malls, for $1.9 billion. Macerich paid for the properties in shares, handing a roughly 11% stake to the Canadian retirement fund.

A combination of Indianapolis-based Simon and Macerich, of Santa Monica, Calif., the country’s first- and third-largest mall owners respectively by market capitalization, could give the companies more clout in negotiating leases with store owners at a time when the industry is grappling with declining foot traffic as more consumers shop online. It could also help Simon expand in the West. Simon has 190 properties and a market value of nearly $60 billion. Macerich has a portfolio of 59 shopping centers concentrated in California and Arizona.

Simon has been an aggressive acquirer of retail properties under Chairman and Chief Executive David Simon, a hard-charging former investment banker who took over his family’s real-estate business in 1995. In 2007, Simon was a partner with hedge fund Farallon Capital Management LLC in buying Mills Corp., a rival mall operator, for $7.9 billion. In 2012, Simon bought a stake in French retail landlord Klepierre SA, and its European exposure expanded further earlier this year when Klepierre bought Dutch rival Corio NV for $9.7 billion.

Mr. Simon has had his share of rejections too. A 2002 hostile bid for Taubman Centers Inc. was thwarted when the governor of Michigan, where Taubman is based, signed a law aimed at protecting REITs from unwelcome offers. A series of takeover bids starting in 2009 for General Growth Properties Inc., coming out of bankruptcy at the time, failed as well.

(TWT) CNBC Now: BREAKING: Abbvie says it will acquire Pharmacyclics for $261.25/share in cash and equity, or approximately $21



CNBC Now: BREAKING: Abbvie says it will acquire Pharmacyclics for $261.25/share in cash and equity, or approximately $21
2015-03-05 03:58:44.611 GMT

BREAKING: Abbvie says it will acquire
Pharmacyclics for $261.25/share in cash and
equity, or approximately $21 billion. $ABBV
$PCYC
CNBC Now @CNBCnow
 
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tweet on the Twitter web site.

Twitter profile information as of March 5, 2015

Description: CNBC is First in Business Worldwide. Follow @CNBCnow for breaking
news, real-time market updates, and more. • Account managed by CNBC's breaking
news desk.

Tweets: 16,741  Following: 29  Followers: 108,800  Tweeting Since:
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-0- Mar/05/2015 03:58 GMT

(BN) J&J Said to Agree to Acquire Pharmacyclics for Cancer Drug



J&J Said to Agree to Acquire Pharmacyclics for Cancer Drug
2015-03-04 22:09:20.952 GMT


By Manuel Baigorri, Matthew Campbell and Dinesh Nair
(Bloomberg) -- Johnson & Johnson has agreed to acquire
cancer-drug maker Pharmacyclics Inc., people with knowledge of
the matter said.
A deal may be announced as soon as Thursday, the people
said, asking not to be identified discussing private
information. Pharmacyclics has a market valuation of about $17.5
billion, after its shares surged about 89 percent so far this
year.
With the purchase, Johnson & Johnson would gain Imbruvica,
an oncology treatment whose sales are expected to grow to $3.56
billion in 2018. The drug is an easy-to-use pill that costs
around $100,000 a year, avoids certain serious side effects of
chemotherapy, and is already approved for four different blood
cancer uses.
Representatives for both companies declined to comment. The
Financial Times earlier said J&J was nearing a deal.
The deal comes with large drugmakers looking to bolster
their pipelines with acquisitions. Novartis AG was also
interested in acquiring Pharmacyclics, people with knowledge of
the matter said last month.

For Related News and Information:
Pharmacyclics Said to Weigh Sale of U.S. Cancer Drugmaker
Cancer Drug Once Bought for $7 Million May Now Fetch $18 Billion
Top Stories:TOP<GO>

--With assistance from Cynthia Koons and Ed Hammond in New York
and Caroline Chen in San Francisco.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Manuel Baigorri in London at +44-20-3525-4457 or
mbaigorri@bloomberg.net;
Matthew Campbell in London at +44-20-3525-8684 or
mcampbell39@bloomberg.net;
Dinesh Nair in London at +44-20-3525-3212 or
dnair5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Mohammed Hadi at +1-212-617-2914 or
mhadi1@bloomberg.net

>>> US Close Dow-0,59% S&P-0,44% Nasdaq-0,26% Russell-0,45%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Register Second Consecutive Decline

The stock market registered its second consecutive retreat on Wednesday with the S&P 500 losing 0.4%. The benchmark managed to cut its loss in half by the closing bell while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) outperformed. The tech-heavy Nasdaq remains higher by 0.1% week-to-date while the S&P 500 is down 0.3% since the end of last week. 

For the second day in a row, the market opened amid broad pressure, but heavily-weighted health care and technology sectors hit their lows during the opening hour and climbed off those lows into the afternoon. The health care sector (+0.4%) registered a modest gain while technology (-0.3%) finished ahead of most other cyclical sectors.

Biotechnology contributed to the outperformance of the health care sector with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 340.09, +2.17) climbing 0.6%. In addition, the high-beta group helped the Nasdaq stay ahead of the broader market while chipmakers also displayed relative strength with the PHLX Semiconductor Index shedding 0.1%. Meanwhile, large cap components of the tech sector ended on a mixed note. Apple (AAPL 128.54, -0.82) lost 0.6% while Facebook (FB 80.90, +1.30) added 1.6%.

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, energy (-0.2%) settled among the outperformers despite a late-morning slide to lows after the EIA storage report showed that crude inventories increased by 10.3 million barrels from the prior week. Like the sector, crude oil fell to lows on the news, but came back roaring to end the pit session higher by 1.9% at $51.50/bbl.

Also of note, the consumer discretionary sector (-0.6%) lagged throughout the session with Lumber Liquidators (LL 35.64, -5.14) tumbling 12.6% after the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation took interest in the company following reports it imported laminate flooring containing significant amounts of formaldehyde.

Over on the countercyclical side, the health care sector represented the lone outperformer while consumer staples (-0.8%), telecom services (-1.2%), and utilities (-0.6%) lagged throughout the trading day.

Treasuries notched their highs in the morning, but surrendered those gains in the early going, and spent the afternoon near the unchanged level. The 10-yr note ended flat with its yield at 2.12%.

Today's participation was in-line with recent trends as roughly 705 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included ADP Employment, ISM Services, and MBA Mortgage Index:
  • The ADP National Employment Report revealed that employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose by 212K in February while the consensus expected an increase of 220K 
    • The January reading was revised up to 250,000 from 213,000 
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.9 in February from 56.7 while the consensus expected a drop to 56.5 
    • The improvement in the headline index comes despite weakness in production and orders. The Business
      Activities/Production
      Index fell to 59.4 from 61.5 while the New Orders Index declined to 56.7 from 59.5 
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Index ticked up 0.1% to follow last week's 3.5% decline 
Tomorrow, the Challenger Job Cuts report for February will be released at 7:30 ET while weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 295K) and Q4 Productivity (consensus -2.3%)/Unit Labor Costs data (consensus 2.9%) will be released at 8:30 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of the January Factory Orders report (consensus 0.6%).
  • Nasdaq Composite +4.9% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 +2.3% YTD 
  • S&P 500 +1.9% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.5% YTD

WSJ: Beige Book: Hiring and Consumer Spending Look Solid at Start of Year

Beige Book: Hiring and Consumer Spending Look Solid at Start of Year
Points of concern include bad weather in Northeast, and the West Coast ports dispute

WASHINGTON—The U.S. economy continued to expand across most of the country at the start of the year amid broad-based hiring and rising consumer spending, though bad weather in the Northeast, lower oil prices and a West Coast port dispute hurt some parts of the country, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest survey of regional economic conditions.

The Fed found modest or moderate growth in eight of its 12 districts, according to the “beige book” report released Wednesday. Elsewhere the pace of economic activity was increasing only slightly or slowing.

Payrolls “remained stable or expanded” across broad range of sectors, though “wage pressures remained moderate and were limited largely to workers in skilled occupations,” the report said. Prices for goods and services were flat on increasing slightly.

The survey of anecdotal information, covering January to mid-February and collected through Feb. 23, was released ahead of the Fed’s March 17-18 policy meeting in Washington.

Fed officials are weighing when to begin raising short-term interest rates from near-zero, where they have held since December 2008. The central bank’s policy makers are expected to make the first such move this year, though not before June. Officials now must weigh steady improvement in the labor market against weak inflation and soft wage gains.

“Provided that labor market conditions continue to improve and further improvement is expected, the Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when, on the basis of incoming data, the Committee is reasonably confident that inflation will move back over the medium term toward our 2% objective,” Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen told Congress last month.

Wednesday’s report highlighted several crosscurrents, including rising auto sales, an increase in manufacturing and rising loan demand alongside impacts from bad weather, the West Coast port slowdown, and declining energy-sector activity.

“Both the New York and Boston Districts reported that harsh winter weather negatively affected retail business in their Districts,” the beige book said. “However, the Boston and Cleveland Districts also reported increased sales of winter-related items such as winter apparel, rock salt and snow shovels.”

A work slowdown at West Coast ports hurt agricultural exports cargo volumes at some Midwest trucking firms, but boosted traffic at East Coast ports.

Energy-related activity took a hit as crude oil prices remained low.

The Cleveland, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Dallas Districts all reported a decline in oil and gas drilling and are planning for cuts to capital expenditures.

“Energy firms said they have halted hiring and started downsizing, with most expecting payrolls to decline in the first half of the year,” the Dallas district reported.

WSJ : Bouygues’s M&A Calls Aren’t Getting Through


Bouygues’s M&A Calls Aren’t Getting Through
The more success Bouyges Telecom has, the more difficult it becomes to sell

What’s good for Bouyges Telecom may actually be bad for Bouyges shareholders.

The French conglomerate owns the third largest wireless carrier in France. After losing out in its bid to merge Bouygues Telecom with mobile company SFR last year, the pursuer has become the pursued. So far, however, Bouygues is playing hard to get.

Bouygues Telecom is operating at a loss. It accounts for only 13% of its parent’s revenues but about half of its total capital expenditure in 2014. And this trend goes back at least five years. Given France’s four-way mobile competition where the best that mobile operators can hope for is market share gains to maintain flat revenues, it is hard to see how the telecoms business can generate an acceptable return on capital employed without further consolidation—at least in the next few years.

The backbone of Bouygues is really its construction business which, in the past, has helped to offset losses in the telecoms unit. But it has fallen on uncertain times. Orders fell by 2% in 2014. Yet Bouygues’ share price has still risen 19% this year. It is now trading about 50% above its five-year average valuation on earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, on hopes that a deal to sell Bouygues Telecom is imminent.

Based on current share prices, Bouygues’ telecoms assets are being valued at about 8.5 times 2015 Ebitda, reckons Barclays, compared with the industry average of about 6 times 2015 Ebitda. Cost savings from any combination of Bouygues with another French operator should prove significant. Nevertheless, the higher the price, the tougher it is to make a deal work. Given its high level of past capital expenditure, Bouygues will likely want a hefty premium to justify those investments.

Iliad was spurned last year for an offer Bouygues considered too stingy. Orange has already said it won’t be leading consolidation in France, and has separately expressed interest in pursuing merger talks with Telecom Italia to broaden its pan-European reach. That leaves only Altice , which is busy integrating SFR with Numericable and likely won’t be ready for an expensive purchase anytime soon.

Bouygues is fighting its corner by slashing costs and subscription prices. It added an impressive 415,000 broadband customers in 2014, but at the same time lost 22,000 mobile customers. The company is aiming to lure a million new mobile customers and another million broadband subscribers by 2017, a target that will likely require a further painful squeeze on profitability to reach.

The trouble is that the more success Bouygues Telecom has at gaining market share, the less its parent company will need to sell and the higher the price tag. That offers little comfort for shareholders, who may be left just waiting for the phone to ring.