Aéroport de Paris: -17%, Bouygues: -22%, Casino: -20%, Eurofins: -17.5%, Havas: -23% and Kering: -15%
* List of stocks to play a market consolidation scenario in France
* On average, they present downside potential of 13%
* Six conviction stocks show downside potential of close to 20%
* Three stocks do not show any upside potential and poor news flow
* List of stocks to play a market consolidation scenario in France
We publish today a list of nine French stocks that we see as potential
vehicles to exploit a market consolidation scenario in the weeks ahead.
We took a bottom-up approach when selecting these stocks for which we
have a Hold or a Reduce rating. On average, the list presents a downside
risk of 14%. This could totally offset the performance of these stocks
which are up 16% on average YTD (performance in line with the French
indexes (CAC 40: 14% - SBF 120: +14.1% - CAC Mid & Small: +14.8%). The
list consists of six large caps (Aéroport de Paris, Bouygues, Casino, Kering,
Sanofi and Schneider Electric) and three mid-caps (Eiffage, Eurofins and
Havas).
* Six conviction stocks with downside potential of close to 20%
For six of the nine names, we estimate a downside risk of close to 20% on
average (Aéroport de Paris: -17%, Bouygues: -22%, Casino: -20%,
Eurofins: -17.5%, Havas: -23% and Kering: -15%). In a nutshell, we believe
they are all nicely valued versus peers (in particular ADP, Casino, Eurofins
and Havas), but could be hit by unfavourable news flow in in 2015 (Kering
with Gucci in Asia, Casino in Brazil and Bouygues with its exposure to
French construction).
* Three stocks do not show any upside potential and poor news flow
For three stocks (Eiffage, Sanofi and Schneider Electric), we would play a
profit-taking scenario due to the absence of upside. For all of them, we
cannot rule out the possibility of negative news flow (exposure to the
French motorways for Eiffage, exposure to China for Schneider Electric
and the risk of disappointment on Lantus/Toujeo for Sanofi). These risks
are not included in our models at the moment. If they materialise, this
could create a downside risk for their valuations. Moreover, the
risk/reward profile for these stocks is not appealing. Finally, with regard to
Sanofi, we believe the new CEO, Olivier Brandicourt, will find it hard to
create positive momentum in the short term by issuing ambitious strategic
and financial targets.



