Asian Mid-session Update: China unveils soft 2015 GDP target of "around" 7%, inflation of about 3%
***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN TRADE BALANCE (AUD): -980M V -925ME; 10th consecutive deficit
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.4% (3-month high) V 0.4%E
- (BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) RAISES SELIC TARGET RATE BY 50BPS TO 12.75%; AS EXPECTED
***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Mar S&P500 +0.1% at 2,098
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold +0.3% at $1,204, Apr crude oil +0.3% at $51.78/brl
- (CN) PBoC to inject CNY40B in 7-day reverse repos (3rd consecutive injection); Drains net CNY145B this week v drained CNY142B prior
- (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥470.9B in foreign bonds v bought ¥166.2B in prior week; Foreign investors bought net ¥350.5B in Japan stocks v bought ¥289.3B in prior week
- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥0.64B in 1.5% (1.5% prior) 30-yr notes; Avg yield: 1.510% v 1.464% prior; Bid to cover: 3.67x v 2.67x prior
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- China National People's Congress opened today, and instead of waiting for the conclusion of the summit to unveil 2015 targets, Premier Li pulled the curtain on govt forecasts from the start. As anticipated, China is forecasting 2015 GDP at "around 7%" - a new 11-year low and a softer (more vague) target than "about" 7.5% tipped for 2014. CPI is now seen at around 3.0% vs 3.5% in 2014, while trade growth projections were knocked down to 6.0% from 7.5% in 2014. 2015 M2 is estimated at 12.0%, also a notable downgrade from 13% last year. Among the quantitative objectives, policymakers also outlined a range of qualitative initiatives - progress on cross-border yuan payment system, convertibility on capital account, broader use of FX reserves, more freely floating yuan, a deposit insurance system, land reform to stabilize housing consumption, end of price controls for pharmaceuticals, and curbing of overcapacity in the outdated coal industry to help reduce CO2 emissions. Pharma names and Yuan are among the early beneficiaries of this ambitious agenda, even though the broader mainland market is down by about 1%. Separately, PBoC adviser Chen also forecasted continued monetary policy easing in H1 of 2015, but no widening of Yuan trading band.
- AUD/USD was not particularly impacted by either China 2015 announcements or the local economic data out of Australia. January trade balance was a deficit for the 10th consecutive month but mainly because imports recovered with a 3% growth vs -1% in the prior month. Exports to China were down 16%, and shipments of oil and iron ore were down 24% and 9% respectively. Australia retail sales were in line with consensus, led by purchases of Clothing, footwear and personal accessory category of 0.7%. RBA Dep Gov Lowe noted AUD is now much closer to fair value but still too high for the state of the economy, elevated by easy policies of other central banks, adding households are reluctant to take on leverage and reiterating the central bank can ease further if needed.
- BOJ dissenter Kiuchi spoke at length about his continued opposition to the latest round of easing implemented last October, noting the costs of current policy have exceeded the benefits. Kiuchi expects private consumption to remain firm and exports to increase gradually, though he also admitted to holding a more cautious view on Japan's economic, price outlook than median BOJ projections. On inflation, Kiuchi said the 2% target is above appropriate levels for Japan economy and should instead be made more flexible. USD/JPY was up modestly on the session, rising about 20pips above 119.80.
***Equities***
US markets:
- PEIX: Reports Q4 $0.41 v $0.12e, R$256.2M v $242Me; +11.5% afterhours
- HRTG: Reports Q4 $0.66 v $0.38e, R$85.4M v $59.6Me; +8.0% afterhours
- MLR: Reports Q4 $0.50 v $0.21 y/y, R$147.8M v $108.3M y/y; Raises quarterly dividend 6.7% to $0.16; +6.9% afterhours
- MAC: Simon Property said to have made a takeover approach - financial press; +5.3% afterhours
- DAR: Reports Q4 $0.42 v $0.18 y/y, R$1.0B v $447.9M y/y; +3.7% afterhours
- MOMO: Reports Q4 -$0.10 v -$0.07 y/y, R$18.6M v $2.3M y/y; +0.4% afterhours
- GD: Increases dividend 11% to $0.69 from $0.62; +0.2% afterhours
- NKE: Announces Management Changes in Greater China and Global Footwear; flat afterhours
- ERJ: Reports Q4 Net profit $129M v $373M y/y, Rev $2.05B v $2.30B y/y; -2.6% afterhours
- HRB: Reports Q3 -$0.13 v -$0.28e, R$509M v $446Me; -4.0% afterhours
- VNDA: Announces Tradipitant Phase II Proof of Concept Study Results for Chronic Pruritus in Atopic Dermatitis; -5.7% afterhours
- PCYC: AbbVie to acquire Pharmacyclics, including its blockbuster product Imbruvica; for $261.25/share (cash and stock), total transaction value of approx $21B
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Phoenix Satellite Television Holdings 2008.HK +0.4% (FY14 guidance)
- Financials: Magellan Financial Group MFG.AU -1.4% (FUM as of end-Jan)
- Industrials: JFE Holdings 5411.JP +1.0% (to build plant in Abu Dhabi)
- Technology: ASM Pacific Technology 522.HK -4.5% (FY14 results)
- Healthcare: Eisai Co Ltd 4523.JP +5.7% (enters cooperation with Merck)