>>> BinckBk +2% --> ING could takeover BinckBank or Belfius

ING could takeover BinckBank or Belfius 

Dutch bank ING could takeover Dutch BinckBank or Belgian bank Belfius, de Financieele Telegraaf reported, citing Rabobank analysts. ING has EUR 19bn to spend. Around EUR 12bn is meant for dividends and internal growth. The other EUR 7bn could act as a buffer, be returned to shareholders, or be used to finance takeovers, the report said.

Rabobank is expanding on its January 2015 prediction that Binck will be bought this year, as previously reported by this service.

De Financieele Telegraaf

(BFW) *SÜDZUCKER EXPECTS FURTHER DECLINE IN FY OPERATING PROFIT


BFW 04/10 06:55 *SÜDZUCKER EXPECTS FURTHER DECLINE IN FY OPERATING PROFIT
BN 04/10 06:54 *SÜDZUCKER 2014 RESTRUCTURING/SPECIAL ITEMS EU45M VS EU116M
BN 04/10 06:51 *SÜDZUCKER SEES 1Q OP. PROFIT DOWN 'SIGNIFICANTLY'
BN 04/10 06:51 *SÜDZUCKER SEES 2015/2016 OP. PROFIT OF ABOUT EU50M - EU150M
BN 04/10 06:50 *SÜDZUCKER SEES 2015/2016 REV OF ABOUT EU6.0B - EU6.3B
BN 04/10 06:50 *SÜDZUCKER STILL SEES OP. PROFIT OF ABOUT EU550M IN MID-TERM
BN 04/10 06:49 *SÜDZUCKER FY 2014 REV EU6.8B VS EU7.5B
BN 04/10 06:48 *SÜDZUCKER IS EXPECTING FURTHER GROUP OP. PROFIT DECLINE IN FINL
BN 04/10 06:48 * SÜDZUCKER SÜDZUCKER IS EXPECTING FURTHER GROUP OP. PROFIT

DGAP-Adhoc: Südzucker AG: Südzucker is expecting further group operating profit decline in financial
2015-04-10 06:48:49.114 GMT


Südzucker AG / Key word(s): Final Results/Forecast

10.04.2015 08:48

Dissemination of an Ad hoc announcement according to § 15 WpHG, transmitted
by DGAP - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

(BofA-ML) Flow Show : EM Disconnect : Europe Eq. +$3.9bil inflows

>>> Asset Class Flows
* Equities: small $0.2bn inflows (stabilization following chunky $15bn redemptions past 2 weeks)
* Bonds: $7.2bn inflows (14 straight weeks)
* Commodities: $0.6bn outflows (3 straight weeks)

>>> Equity Flows
* Europe: $3.9bn inflows (13 straight weeks) – the crowded trade
* EM: 6 straight weeks of outflows ($1.1bn outflows)
* China: chunky $2.3bn outflows (8 straight weeks of outflows) despite being the best performing global market past 12 months
* Brazil: only tiny $17mn inflows despite IBOV rallying 11% off March lows
* US: $5.5bn outflows (outflows in 7 out of past 8 weeks)
* Japan: $0.3bn inflows (7 straight weeks)

>>> Fixed Income Flows
* 68 straight weeks of inflows to IG bond funds ($3.6bn)
* $2.1bn inflows to HY bond funds (largest in 5 weeks)
* $0.4bn inflows to EM debt funds (3 straight weeks)
* 39 straight weeks of outflows from bank loan funds ($0.2bn)
* $1.1bn inflows to govt/tsy funds (5 straight weeks)
* 25 straight weeks of inflows to MBS funds

>>> What to look at today - 10th of April 2015

Dow+0,31% S&P+0,46% Nasdaq+0,48% Russell-0,32%
US Market Closed slightly higher with small cap lower, S&P find a support on 50d MA. Eight of ten sectors registered gains with all six cyclical groups ending higher. The growth-sensitive bunch was led by energy (+1.6%), which held the lead throughout the day. The sector held its own while crude oil slumped from its intraday high, but still rose 0.7% to $50.81/bbl. Alcoa's 3.3% decline after the company reported a two-cent beat on below-consensus revenue. In addition, Alcoa said it expects aluminum demand to grow by 6.5% in 2015 after revising its 2014 global demand growth to 9.0% from 7.0%. Volume were below average @ 675m shares...US After Hours QTM +30.2%, FSI +4.7%, RT +1.4%, EXTR-19.8%, MDCO -8.3%, CTXS -5.9% following earnings/guidance...China kicked off economic reports for the month of March in decent fashion, as CPI held steady at 1.4% beating consensus by a decimal and PPI declines stopped accelerating for the first time in 8 months. Sequentially, CPI fell 0.5% after rising 1.2% in Feb, but YTD CPI edged up to 1.2% from 1.1%. China and Hong Kong equity markets are taking a breather from the volatility of the last two days, however there appears to be a sense of resignation that the path of least resistance is higher still. Local press attributed the sharp rally on the Hang Seng to two straight days of full use of quota for Shanghai - Hong Kong stock connect as investors sought to take advantage of a discount of as much as 24% for individual Hong Kong traded stocks relative to their mainland dual listings. USD is trading higher 1.0667 vs Euro...

Nikkei 0.03% Hang Seng +0.17% Shanghai +1.08%

WTI $50.76% RUB $51.3882 CHFEUR 0.9596 CHF 0.9772 Eur$ 1.0665

S&P -0.01% EuroStoxx +0.46% Dax +0.50% SMI +0.38%


Macro :
- China Govt could lower the value added tax (VAT ) on coal down to 13% - China press
- China March Consumer Prices Rise 1.4% Y/y; Est. 1.3% Gain

Keep an eye on :
- A2A IM : A2A 2014 Loss EU37m; Ebitda in line w/ Est., Chinese, Arab Gulf Funds Interested in A2A, MF Reports
- A2A IM : A2A Sees Div. Doubling by 2019; Ebitda to Grow, Debt to Decline
- AF FP : Air Traffic Control Strike Costs Air France EU10M-EU20M:Parisien
- B5A GY : Bauer 2014 Sales Rise 4%, Posts Net Profit; Beats BDVD Forecast
- BG/ LN : *BG/SHELL UNLIKELY TO SEE EXXON COUNTERBID, CREDIT SUISSE SAYS
- CA FP : Brazil Billionaire Abilio Diniz Boosts Carrefour Stake to 5.07%
- CA FP : Carrefour 1Q Sales Beat Ests.; France Sales Up 2.5% Y/y
- DBK GY : Said to be close to settling LIBOR manipulation litigation; May pay up to $1.5B to various regulators - NYT
- GIVN VX : Givaudan Says Started Yr With Stable Momentum, Repeats M/T Goals
- GLEN LN : Glencore Says Global Effective Tax Rate in 2014 Was 22%
- REP SM : Caixa said to be considering sale of Repsol stake (2,5%)
- RWE GY : RWE Outlook To Negative On Market Conditions by S&P
- SGO FP : St Gobain CEO Sees No French Construction Recovery This Year
- SHP LN : Shire: U.S. FDA Grants Priority Review to Lifitegrast NDA
- SKG LN : Smurfit Kappa Would Be ‘Good Fit’ for Intl Paper: Vertical
- DG FP : Orix, Vinci Mull Joint Bid to Run Osaka-Area Airports: Nikkei
- VIV FP : Bollore Spends EU800m to Buy Further 2.51% of Vivendi, up from 12% to 14,51%
- VOW3 GY : Volkswagen to Invest EU500m in Slovakia From 2017: Handelsblatt

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 10th of April 2015

>>> Up
*BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS RAISED TO HOLD VS UNDERPERFORM: JEFFERIES
*BEFIMMO RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*BELLWAY RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*BERKELEY GROUP RAISED TO HOLD VS UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*BG GROUP RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*BOVIS RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*COUNTRYWIDE RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*CREST RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*DEUTSCHE POST RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*DSV RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*INDIVIOR RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*PERSIMMON RAISED TO HOLD VS UNDERPERFORM AT JEFFERIES
*RECKITT BENCKISER RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*REDROW RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*SABADELL RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*SBERBANK RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*TAYLOR WIMPEY RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*UNITED INTERNET RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*ZOOPLA RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES

>>> Down
*BANCO POPULAR CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*BANKIA CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*BEIERSDORF CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*BNP PARIBAS CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*EDF CUT TO MARKETPERFORM VS OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*KINGFISHER CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*KUEHNE & NAGEL CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*ONTEX GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*POSTNL CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SWEDBANK CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*TNT EXPRESS CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*TOM TAILOR CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*AUSTRIAN POST RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT EU40
*BPOST RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT EU25.3
*CTT RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT EU9.7
*SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT RAYMOND JAMES
*TNT RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT EU7.6
*WIZZ AIR RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT 1,580P

>>> Call
>> Stock
*GRANDVISION ADDED TO ING BENELUX FAVOURITES LIST, STAYS BUY
*CORBION EXITS ING BENELUX FAVOURITES LIST, STAYS BUY RATED

>>> US After Hours: QTM +30.2%, FSI +4.7%, RT +1.4%, EXTR-19.8

After Hours Summary: QTM +30.2%, FSI +4.7%, RT +1.4%, EXTR-19.8%, MDCO -8.3%, CTXS -5.9% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: QTM
 +30.2%, FSI +4.7%, RT +1.4%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ACUR +8.4% (announced intent to initiate development of an abuse deterrent Hydrocodone with acetaminophen tablets), PZG +1.9% (provided spin-off transaction update: SEC has declared effective the Registration Statement on Form S-1 filed by co's subsidiary Paramount Gold Nevada), FHN +0.4% (to pay $212.5 mln to settle a key outstanding matter related to the mortgage business the company sold in 2008)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: EXTR-19.8%, MDCO -8.3%, FIS -6.0%, CTXS -5.9%, ANGO -5.3%, PSMT -2.4%, GPS -2.3%, DOV -1.8%, GY -0.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: GALE -7.8% (disclosed it received a Warning Letter from the FDA relating to certain matters identified in previous Form 483 Notice), CMP -3.2% (reports that above average Q1 snow events in the company's core North American service area offset mild weather in December), AMRN -2.7% (filed for ~35.215 mln share ordinary share offering and for a ~352.15 mln Series A preference share offering by selling shareholders), GBDC -2.7% (announced public offering of 3.5 mln shares of its common stock), RDC -1.5% (disclosed that the Rowan Reliance drillship experienced a loss of seal in the riser connection system)

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: China CPI steady, PPI declines stop accelerating; US Treasury calls on Korea to exercise restraint on FX support

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA MAR CPI Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.3%E (3-month high)
- (CN) CHINA MAR PPI Y/Y: -4.6% V -4.8%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB HOME LOANS M/M: 1.2% V 3.0%E
- (JP) JAPAN MAR BANK LENDING (INCL TRUSTS): 2.7% V 2.8%E; BANK LENDING (EX- TRUSTS): 2.6% (3-month high) V 2.6%E
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.25%; AS EXPECTED

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.1%, S&P/ASX +0.3%, Kospi +1.0%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Jun S&P500 -0.1% at 2,083

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Jun gold +0.2% at $1,196/oz, May crude oil -0.1% at $50.75/brl, May copper +0.2% at $2.735/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 3.0 tonnes to 736.0 tonnes; 1-week high
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥375B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥375B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs and ¥140B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr as well as ¥1.8T in T-bills
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$2B in 1.75% govt bonds due 2020; Avg yield: 2.0007%; Bid-to-cover: 3.14x
- (CN) China MoF sells 1-yr bonds at 3.13% yield
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Apr 8th: $4.48T v $4.48T prior; Reserve Bank Credit: $4.45T v $4.44T prior; M1 y/y change: 8.4% v 8.8% w/w; M2 y/y change: 5.9% v 5.9% w/w

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- China kicked off economic reports for the month of March in decent fashion, as CPI held steady at 1.4% beating consensus by a decimal and PPI declines stopped accelerating for the first time in 8 months. Sequentially, CPI fell 0.5% after rising 1.2% in Feb, but YTD CPI edged up to 1.2% from 1.1%. Non-food component was unchanged at 0.9%. Analysts are split on the implications of the latest inflation data - some see the report as beginning of stabilization that would diminish the need for PBoC to ease aggressively, while others do not see the release sufficiently significant to alter the increasingly more regular easing path. Investors will monitor lending, M2 money supply, and Trade figures expected over the next few trading sessions.

- China and Hong Kong equity markets are taking a breather from the volatility of the last two days, however there appears to be a sense of resignation that the path of least resistance is higher still. Local press attributed the sharp rally on the Hang Seng to two straight days of full use of quota for Shanghai - Hong Kong stock connect as investors sought to take advantage of a discount of as much as 24% for individual Hong Kong traded stocks relative to their mainland dual listings. Separately, China State Council reiterated intention to continue prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy, and a Chinese official also pledged more measures to stabilize trade growth, particularly if the trend of falling imports persists. In the property sector, Shanghai announced it would raise the amount of funds allowed for loans under the city's housing fund program to CNY1M from CNY600K.

- USD majors are particularly moribund in spite of the volatility in the US session. EUR/USD is in a 30pip range above $1.0650 and USD/JPY consolidated its gains within the 120.40-60 band. AUD/USD fell over 20pips on the release of China CPI that coincided with disappointing home loans data, but quickly reversed all of those losses. Also of note in FX, US Treasury's Semiannual Report on Exchange Rate Policies once again did not name any major trading partner a "currency manipulator", but renewed calls for South Korea to limit its intervention in FX only to instances of "disorderly" markets. Korea's response was that it leaves exchange rate to the markets, but will not change is "smoothing" operations. On China, US Treasury noted that while it made further progress, the CNY currency remains significantly undervalued.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- QTM: Reports prelim Q4 $0.04 v $0.01e, Rev $145M v $130Me; +34.2% afterhours
- ACUR: To Develop Abuse Deterrent Hydrocodone With Acetaminophen Tablets With Limitx Technology; +8.4% afterhours
- RT: Reports Q3 -$0.01 v -$0.06e, R$286M v $284Me; +0.3% afterhours
- EBAY: Provides update on planned spin-off of PayPal, including 5-year non-compete clause - filing; +0.1% afterhours
- GPS: Reports Mar SSS +2% v +0.6%e; -2.0% afterhours
- ANGO: Reports Q3 $0.12 v $0.15e, R$86.6Mv $88.7Me; -5.8% afterhours
- CTXS: Reports prelim Q1 $0.63-0.65 v $0.71e, R$755-760M v $785Me; -5.8% afterhours
- FIS: Guides Q1 lower $0.64-0.66 v $0.72e, Guides FY15 lower $3.27-3.37 v $3.40e, Rev +1-3%(implies R$6.47-6.6B v $6.78Be) ($0.67-0.72, FY15 $3.37-3.49, Rev +5-7% prior) cites FX; Announces Changes in Segment Reporting; -6.0% afterhours
- DB: Said to be close to settling LIBOR manipulation litigation; May pay up to $1.5B to various regulators - NY Times; -6.5% afterhours
- MDCO: Guides Q1 R$125-130M v $184Me; -8.3% afterhours
- EXTR: Reports prelim Q3 -$0.09 to -$0.07 v $0.00e, R$118-120M v $135Me (prior forecast -$0.03 to +$0.02, R$130-140M); -19.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Fast Retailing 9983.JP +3.8% (H1 results); J.Front Retailing 3086.JP +1.1% (FY14/15 results); Aeon Co Ltd 8267.JP +5.4% (FY14/15 results)
- Financials: Haitong Securities 6837.HK -3.7% (Mar op results); CITIC Securities 6030.HK -2.0% (Mar op results); Greentown China 3900.HK +0.3% (Mar sales results); Poly Real Estate 600048.CN -2.8% (Mar sales results)
- Materials: Panoramic Resources PAN.AU -8.2% (Mar quarter production results)
- Technology: Asahi Glass 5201.JP -2.0% (speculation on Q1 results)

>>> BG Group: Shell minorities supportive but success depends on oil price rebou

DEAL REPORTER

BG Group: Shell minorities supportive but success depends on oil price rebound

Royal Dutch Shell’s [LON:RDSA] cash and share offer for BG Group [LON:BG] is seen as a good move strategically for the Anglo-Dutch group, according to three minority Shell investors and two cross shareholders. But the success of the deal will only be determined some five years down the line, as it is dependent on oil prices rebounding from their current low levels, two cautioned.

Yesterday, 8 April, the two sides announced a recommended offer for BG, whose shareholders will receive 383 pence in cash and 0.4454 Shell B shares. The offer is at a 52% premium to the 90-day volume weighted average price of BG shares.

The combination will benefit both BG which will be part of a bigger company and Shell, as it will increase its exposure to LNG and deepwater, according to the investors.

Shell appears to have overpaid by 10% but the deal should look good in five years’ time, according to Will Riley, co-manager of the Guinness Global Energy Fund, which has around USD 10m invested in Shell.

“As owners of Shell’s equity, we want deals done with a reasonable margin of safety; arguably, this margin is smaller than we would like," he said. Riley added that he was in favour of the deal, however.

In yesterday’s announcement Shell said that the per share impacts of the deal assumed Brent oil prices of USD 67 per barrel in 2016, USD 75 per barrel in 2017 and USD 90 per barrel for 2018-2020 (all on a 2014 real terms basis). Brent crude is currently trading at around USD 57 per barrel.

If Shell is right about the oil price rebounding to USD 90 per barrel then the deal makes sense, said a second investor.

A third investor was broadly supportive of the transaction but said it is impossible to tell if Shell is overpaying until several years down the line. If the price of oil stays at between USD 40-USD 60 per barrel for the next five years then Shell will have overpaid, this investor said.

As the takeover is a Class 1 transaction under UK listing rules, Shell investors will need to vote on the deal.

Guinness’s Riley said he expects a USD 70-USD 80 range recovery in the next 12-18 months, with some upward pressure after that.

The premium only looks significant compared to BG’s recent trading price, noted a sector banker. BG’s shares were trading at 890.4 pence the day before the deal was announced, but for most of the past year they were trading above 1000 pence.

“If we look at the theoretic value of the offer, it is a bit below what we had considered to be fair value….but this is a good deal for BG shareholders," said Yohan Salleron, a fund manager for Mandarine Valeur who has 5% of his fund invested in Shell and 2.5% in BG.

The manager considers BG Group’s fair value to be 1380 pence at the middle of the cycle.

The split of cash and shares was welcomed by the fourth shareholder who holds stock in both companies. This investor said he was happy with a larger proportion of shares than cash.

Shell is offering BG shareholders a ‘mix and match’ facility, under which BG shareholders may elect to vary the proportion of new Shell shares and cash received.

But a minority BG shareholder said he would have preferred an all-cash bid, as he does not want to hold Shell shares since he works for a small fund that does not want to be a "tiny fish" among Shell's shareholders.

Shell’s commitment to its dividend was welcomed by two of the Shell-only investors. In yesterday’s announcement the oil company confirmed its intention to pay dividends of USD 1.88 per ordinary share in 2015 and at least the same amount in 2016, and stated that dividends would be a priority for the combined group’s cash.

The acquisition is a long-term bet on deepwater offshore Brazil and LNG trading, two of Shell’s core competencies, noted the Guinness fund manager.

Acquiring assets such as BG’s Brazilian assets will come at a price, according to the second shareholder. BG has positions in five large pre-salt discoveries in the Santo Basin delivering an estimated 2.6mm barrels of oil per day equivalent of gross capacity. BG is also the operator of 10 blocks in the Barreirinhas Basin.

"Shell's growth in production is declining, but this deal gives it BG's oil fields in Brazil that we project have an extraction cost of USD 60 a barrel," said Salleron, who also considered the push in LNG to be a positive transformation for Shell.

>>> Gartner: Q1 global PC shipments 71.7M units, -5.2% y/y

Gartner: Q1 global PC shipments 71.7M units, -5.2% y/y 
- Gartner Analyst: "The PC industry received a boost in 2014- as many companies replaced their PCs due to the end of Windows XP support, but that replacement cycle faded in the first quarter of 2015... However, this decline is not necessarily a sign of sluggish overall PC sales long term. Mobile PCs, including notebooks, hybrid and Windows tablets, grew compared with a year ago. The first quarter results support our projection of a moderate decline of PC shipments in 2015, which will lead to a slow, consistent growth stage for the next five years... Desk-based PC shipments declined rapidly, with business desk-based PCs being impacted the most. Mobile PCs are being driven by a separate underlying replacement cycle, which led mobile growth in the first quarter. PC replacements will be driven by thin and light notebooks with tablet functionality. Our early study suggests strong growth of hybrid notebooks, especially in mature markets, in 1Q15."
- Lenovo and HP were the only two vendors among the top five worldwide that experienced an increase in PC shipments in the first quarter of 2015. Lenovo experienced its strongest growth in EMEA and the U.S. It has become one of the top providers of hybrid notebooks, especially its Yoga line in mature markets. HP performed moderately well in the first quarter, and it kept its top position in the U.S. and EMEA. HP increased share in the U.S., but in EMEA the share delta from Lenovo, the second-largest vendor in the region, narrowed compared with 4Q14.