>>> What to look at today - 5th of June 2025

Asian shares made modest moves as investors avoided taking long-term risky bets ahead on US payrolls data Friday. A regional gauge swung to a loss as Japanese stocks extended declines after demand at a 30-year government bond auction was weaker than average. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries advanced 2 basis points. Bonds had rallied across the curve Wednesday as data showed a contraction in US service providers and a deceleration in hiring. The dollar was weaker against all its Group-of-10 peers in Asian trading.
Investors are mostly staying on the sidelines as they await key economic data from the US Friday, which will provide clues on the direction of the markets. US economic activity has fallen slightly in recent weeks, indicating tariffs and elevated uncertainty are hurting the economy. Still, a gauge of global stocks closed at a record high Wednesday amid speculation that the worst may be over after the tumult fueled by President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement two months ago. Markets swings “have become perhaps a bit less violent since Liberation Day,” said Christina Woon, a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, on Bloomberg Television. A “bit of Trump fatigue” is one reason, she said. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services dropped a touch below the 50 level that separates expansion and contraction. Private payrolls rose the least in two years. Nonfarm payroll jobs data due Friday will provide further clarity. On Wednesday, two- to 10-year yields reached the lowest levels since at least May 9 after the ISM Services gauge for last month signaled contraction for the first time in a year. Traders of swap contracts that predict Fed rate changes priced in higher odds of two quarter-point cuts by year-end, in October and December. The possibility of a move in September increased to more than 90% from around 82%. Later Thursday, the European Central Bank will hand down an interest rate decision. Meanwhile, China’s services activity expanded at a faster pace in May, a private survey showed, in a sign the consumer economy is stabilizing while higher US tariffs threaten demand for exports.
In Japan, the 30-year government bond auction saw the weakest demand since 2023, ramping up pressure on the government to adjust issuance. This came after disappointing demand at sales of 20-year and 40-year bonds late last month exposed investor concern about a lack of buyers for longer tenors. Although a 10-year auction this week brought some relief for the Japanese market, expanding deficits are putting longer bonds under pressure worldwide. Kevin Zhao, head of global sovereign and currency at UBS Asset Management, floated the idea that Japan should stop issuing long bonds to halt a recent selloff.  US After Hours VRNT +18.6%, MDB +13.6%, FIVE +3.8% higher on earnings; PVH -6.3%, DSGX -3.7% lower on earnings

Nikkei -0.50% Hang Seng +0.56% CSI +0.06% Shanghai +0.07% Shenzen +0.26%

Eur$ 1.1412 CNH 7.1799 CNY 7.1834 JPY 143.01 GBP 1.3546 CHF 0.8190 RUB 79.3000 TRY 39.3209 WTI$ 62.55 -0.48% Gold 3,368 -0.15% BTC 105,233 +0.55% ETH 2,634 +1.06%

S&P -0.11% Nasdaq -0.16% EuroStoxx -0.07% FTSE -0.08% Dax -0.05% SMI -0.18%

Macro :
- DAX Remains Unchanged, IONOS Added to MDAX, Qontigo Says
- Third-Largest German Gas Storage Facility to Miss Winter Goal
- IMF Says Trade War Tougher for EM Central Banks Than Covid: FT
- FTSE MIB Index Review Results in No Changes (June 4)

Keep an eye on :
- ACE IM : Acea Gets Binding Offer for Acea Energia From Eni Plenitude
- AIR FP : BOC Aviation Agrees to Buy Nine Airbus A320neo Aircraft
- AAPL US : Apple loses bid to pause app store reform order in Epic Games case - Reuters
- ALVOSDB SS : Alvotech Offers Up to 7.5m Shares, Swedish Depository Receipts, Alvotech Offering of Up to 7.5m Shares Prices at SEK10/Share
- AVOL SW : Avolta Holder Taobao China Holding Offers Shares, Terms Show
- BPE IM : Italy Market Regulator Approves BPER Offer on Popolare Sondrio
- BCHN SW : Burckhardt FY Sales Meet Estimates
- CABK SM : *CAIXABANK CLAIMS €132M FROM INSURERS FOR BANKIA IPO: EXPANSION
- GOOS CN : Canada Goose Sees $30M Charge After Losing Dispute With Vendor
- EKTAB SS : Elekta to Buy Assets From Distributor in Croatia; No Terms
- ENT LN : Entain boss Dean Shannon to depart ahead of AUSTRAC remediation
- ETL FP : Eutelsat Holder Hanwha Offers About 25.9m Shrs, Terms Show
- GLEN LN : Glencore-Backed Cobalt Holdings Axes $230 Million London IPO
- IOS GY ; Added to Mdax
- JEN GY : Deleted from MAdx
- KLDVK NO : Kaldvik to Raise EUR46.2 Million in Share Sale at NOK14/Share
- MC FP : LVMH-Backed Firm L Catterton Sets Up Japan Buyout Fund: Nikkei
- OR FP : L’Oréal Poised to Seal €1b Deal for Skincare Brand Medik8: FT
- 1913 HK : Prada to Take 10% Stake in Rino Mastrotto, No Terms ( https://www.rinomastrotto.com/en/)
- SESG FP : SES, Intelsat Deal Set to Win EU Antitrust Nod: Reuters
- 9984 JP : Greensill to Testify in Credit Suisse Case Against Softbank: FT
- MSTR US : Strategy Is Said to Guide STRD Share Price at $85 to $90 Each
- STLA US : Ram Brings Back Hemi V8 Engine in Bid to Reclaim Lost Sales
- STMF FP : Italy Official Says Governance Split of STMicro Not An Option
- UBSG SW : UBS's New Capital Requirements Could Absorb Much of Credit Suisse Gains -- Market Talk
- UCG IM : UniCredit Gets European Commission Clearance on Banco BPM Offer

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 5th of June 2025

>>> Up
* Allianz PT Raised to 419 euros from 407 euros at Berenberg
* Bayer Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 33 euros
* Demant Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 335 kroner
* Emeis Raised to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Engie Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 22 euros
* Haleon PT Raised to 502 pence from 460 pence at Berenberg
* Learnd Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 6.40 euros
* Triglav Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 62 euros

>>> Down
* Airbus Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 183 euros
* Azelis Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* Digia Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 8.30 euros
* E.On Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Ferguson Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* Just Eat Takeaway Cut to Hold at ING; PT 20.30 euros
* Microsoft Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $444.65
* Nvidia Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $138
* Snam Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays

>>> Initiation
* DFS Furniture Rated New Buy at Panmure Liberum; PT 300 pence
* Marvell Technology Rated New Buy at China Renaissance
* Talanx Rated New Underperform at Autonomous; PT 110 euros

>>> Call
* Airbus Downgraded to Neutral at Citi on Weaker Dollar
* Azelis Short-Term Risks Prompt Downgrade to Hold at Berenberg
* Citi More Positive on EU MedTech, Demant Raised, Alcon Top Pick

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Bayer (BAYN TH) +2.6%
    • Bayer Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 33 euros
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +1.9%
  • BAE (BSP TH) +1.7%
  • National Grid (NNGF TH) +1.2%
  • E.On (EOAN TH) -1%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -1.1%
  • Akzo Nobel (AKU1 TH) -1.1%
  • Standard Chartered (STD TH) -1.4%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -1.9%
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) -2.9%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) +2.8%
    • Bayer Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 33 euros
  • E.On (EOAN TH) -0.9%
    • E.On Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays
MDAX:
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.3%
  • Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC TH) +1.1%
    • NOTE: Yesterday, Redcare Drops After Kepler Cheuvreux Cut on E-Script Changes (1)
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -1.1%
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) -2%
SDAX:
  • Formycon (FYB TH) +4.8%
    • Formycon AG: Lucentis®-Biosimilar FYB201/Ranivisio® (Ranibizumab) in Brasilien zugelassen 5. Juni 2025
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.7%

WSJ : The Ukrainian Spy Agency Behind the Stunning Strike on Russia’s Bomber Fle

The Ukrainian Spy Agency Behind the Stunning Strike on Russia’s Bomber Fleet
Ukraine’s SBU security service has carried out some of the most spectacular attacks of the war

Key Points
  • The SBU security service has transformed into the sharp tip of Ukraine’s spear, targeting Russia with covert operations and drone attacks.
  • Under Lt. Gen. Vasyl Maliuk, the SBU has embraced new tech, striking Russian military and industrial facilities with long-range drones.
  • The SBU’s reputation has soared among Ukrainians, with trust in the agency rising to 73% due to its recent successes.

KYIV, Ukraine—With its devastating drone assault on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, Ukraine’s SBU security service pulled off the kind of spectacular operation that has long fed the mystique of top spy agencies like Israel’s Mossad.

The SBU has transformed during the three-year war into the sharp tip of Ukraine’s spear after decades of being maligned as corrupt, shot through with traitors and more focused on chasing political opponents than security threats.

Under the leadership of Lt. Gen. Vasyl Maliuk, the agency has taken the fight to Russia with the killings of alleged traitors and Russian military officers as well as with the use of long-range explosive drones that have targeted Russian military-production plants and oil facilities. It has also revolutionized naval warfare by deploying naval drones that forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to largely abandon its home port in occupied Crimea.

Maliuk, a burly 42-year-old who worked his way up through the ranks of the SBU, has built a reputation as a hands-on leader with a tough streak. In February, Maliuk personally detained a senior officer of the agency who was allegedly spying for Russia.

The SBU’s drone attack on Sunday, dubbed Operation Spiderweb, was 18 months in the planning and damaged 41 Russian warplanes at four airfields deep inside Russia, according to the SBU. The agency released fresh drone footage on Wednesday, which showed dozens of drones targeting planes across four Russian airports.

Drones landed on two A-50 planes, which provide early warning of potential threats as well as command and control of the battlefield.

VIDEO: SBU
It isn’t clear whether there was an explosion from each drone, as the detonation of the drones also cuts the video feed. The A-50s didn’t have engines on them, calling into question whether the planes were operational, according to Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. One of the planes was no longer present in satellite imagery of the air base on Monday.
IVANOVO AIR BASE

June 1: Footage from drone
June 2: Satellite image
Sources: SBU (drone footage); Planet Labs (satellite image); Sam Lair, research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (aircraft analysis)

The new video proves that the strike caused more damage than previously revealed through satellite images and videos posted online. It shows that dozens of warplanes were attacked, though it doesn’t confirm damage to all of the 41 the SBU says were hit in the operation.

“Operation Spiderweb will go down as one of the most effective intelligence-driven special-operations missions in history,” said Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense. “The clandestine development of a platform to conduct this, the operational security being able to be maintained to protect it and the skill and expertise necessary to execute were exceptional.”

President Trump said Wednesday that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin for over an hour, including about the Ukrainian assault. “President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields,” Trump wrote on social media.

SBU operatives smuggled Ukrainian drone parts into Russia and assembled them at a secret location before dispatching them toward air bases concealed in wooden containers on the back of trucks. A Ukrainian law-enforcement official said Kyiv tracked Russian plane movements ahead of the operation to increase the chance of success when they were dispersed across several airports.

Satellite imagery shows the movement of Tupolev Tu-95 bombers, Soviet-era aircraft vital to Russia’s long-range missile campaigns, in the days ahead of the attack.

OLENYA AIR BASE
May 29
May 26
11 Tu-95s
3 Tu-95s
BELAYA AIR BASE
May 24
May 31
No Tu-95s
6 Tu-95s
Sources: Planet Labs (Satellite images via CNS); Sam Lair, research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (Aircraft analysis)
Jemal R. Brinson/WSJ

The operation took advantage of a moment when the targeted planes were evenly distributed across Russian air bases to “maximize the effectiveness of their drones,” said Lair, who first identified the plane movements.

On Sunday, as the trucks were close to four Russian airfields, the roofs were opened remotely and 117 drones flew out and zipped toward their targets. An SBU official said the drones were guided manually by pilots but, in a sign of how the agency is at the forefront of technological advances, artificial intelligence took over when some of the craft lost their signal, automatically piloting the drones to strike their targets along preplanned routes.

Ukrainian officials quickly lavished praise on the SBU for the operation, stressing that it was planned and executed by Ukrainians using homegrown equipment.

“We are grateful to our partners, but this operation was conducted by the Ukrainian side alone,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters on Monday.
May 22
June 4
Satellite images shows three Russian Tu-95s that suffered significant damage at Belaya air base on Sunday. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies

In the days after the Russian invasion in February 2022, the SBU was in disarray. Several senior officers had allegedly betrayed their service by assisting the Russians. They were later detained.

The SBU emerged from its Soviet predecessor, the KGB, after Ukraine declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The KGB and its forerunners had relentlessly targeted Ukrainians who promoted independence. As Ukraine took an authoritarian turn in the late 1990s, the SBU pursued pro-democracy activists and political opponents and shook down businesses.

After Russia invaded and seized Crimea and covertly sent paramilitaries into eastern Ukraine in 2014, dozens of SBU officers switched sides to Russia. After that invasion, Moscow continued to recruit moles inside the agency.

In July 2022, Zelensky removed the then-chairman of the SBU, his childhood friend Ivan Bakanov, and replaced him with Maliuk, who had led operations to root out Russian agents.
In February, the SBU’s leader, Lt. Gen. Vasyl Maliuk, personally detained a senior officer of the agency who was allegedly spying for Russia. Photo: SBU

Under Maliuk’s leadership, the SBU quickly became a feared and creative agency that targeted Russian military installations, equipment and military and pro-war figures in a series of brazen attacks.

Maliuk is respected in the agency, in part because he wasn’t a professional politician parachuted in by the country’s president, as were several previous leaders. Before running the agency, he worked for years in regional SBU offices and fought against Russia after the 2014 invasion.

“He knows every fighter by name, he’s always open for honest conversation,” said one SBU officer, who said Maliuk frequently travels to the front lines of the war.
An SBU naval drone on display in Kyiv. Photo: Emanuele Satolli for WSJ

He has embraced new technology, particularly drones, and is adept at spotting Russian weak points and striking there with spectacular results, officers said.

In an October 2022 attack planned and executed by the SBU, a truck loaded with explosives detonated on the Kerch Bridge linking mainland Russia to Crimea. The explosion ignited tanker wagons in a passing cargo train and damaged the bridge, a project feted by Putin and critical to his military’s logistics.

Explosive naval drones developed by a special unit of the SBU have struck at least 11 Russian ships, according to the agency’s numbers, forcing Russia to withdraw much of its Black Sea Fleet from occupied Crimea. A naval drone was also used to strike the Kerch Bridge again in 2023, severely damaging a support pillar. The officer in charge of the SBU’s sea drone program said Maliuk’s trust and support during its infancy were critical to its success.

Outmatched in labor and equipment by its giant invader, Ukraine has relied on the SBU to find ways to strike deep inside Russia using long-range drones and covert operations.

The SBU has steadily increased the range of its explosive drones, which now regularly target Russian military and industrial facilities inside Russia.

The security service has pulled off daring assassinations on Russian territory. It used an exploding scooter to kill a Russian general in Moscow and a bomb hidden inside a statuette to take out a Russian war blogger in St. Petersburg. The agency has also been active in Ukraine hunting down spies and saboteurs.

As a result of the successes, the SBU’s reputation has soared among the Ukrainian public. Trust in the agency stood at 73% last September, according to a survey by Kyiv-based pollster Rating, compared with 23% in 2021. Ukraine’s postal service has released a special stamp to celebrate the SBU’s operations.

WSJ : Germany’s Leader Has a Message for Trump: We Need You, but You Also Need U

Germany’s Leader Has a Message for Trump: We Need You, but You Also Need Us
Trade, defense and Ukraine will dominate when Chancellor Merz, President Trump meet at White House

Germany’s new chancellor will have a mission when he meets President Trump in the Oval Office for the first time Thursday: keeping him invested in the fate of Europe.

Friedrich Merz is the latest in a string of European leaders who have traveled to the White House in recent weeks in a coordinated campaign to cajole Trump into backing new sanctions on Russia, striking a trade deal with the European Union and reaffirming America’s security commitment to the region.

Merz, Germany’s new center-right leader, has an additional task—developing a personal rapport with Trump, whose grandfather was born in the German town of Kallstadt. Unlike French President Emmanuel Macron, Merz hasn’t had much interaction with Trump, aside from a brief encounter many years ago and several phone calls this year.

The straight-laced chancellor has none of Trump’s backslapping joviality or biting humor. But the two do share some things in common: Both are former businessmen who aren’t known for excessive patience. They will also be able to speak without interpreters since Merz speaks near accent-free English.

Still, the meeting won’t be without its risks for Merz. Trump’s showdowns with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa have shown how unpredictable visits to the Oval Office can be with Trump.

But Trump administration officials don’t expect a similar blowup with Merz. Despite repeated U.S. concerns about free speech in Europe, and in Germany in particular, they feel the session will be routine and friendly, especially if Merz doesn’t overreact to any biting statements made by the president.

“There will be a lot of attention given to the body language and facial expressions,” said Sudha David-Wilp, vice president at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. “My hope is that there is no faux pas and that the sensitive issues are discussed behind closed doors.”

Get trade flowing again
Germany’s export-dependent economy stands to lose more than most in Europe from a protracted trade war with the U.S., its largest trade partner. Even though Trump has suspended his threatened 50% tariffs on European exports until July 9, Germany’s flagship auto industry is already subject to 25% levies.

Merz is expected to argue that the U.S. needs Europe in an effort to present a united front against China. He has long floated bigger German purchases of U.S. defense equipment and natural gas as potential offerings in trade negotiations. Berlin is also happy to discuss lowering traditional nontariff barriers, such as car specifications, to improve market access for U.S. goods.

But reforming the country’s value-added tax or amending European legislation governing social-media platforms, which the U.S. has also designated as nontariff barriers, aren’t on the table.

Pressure on Russia
As the U.S. gears down its support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion, the Trump team expects Merz to outline how Germany, and Europe more broadly, will shoulder more of the responsibility.

Merz, for his part, wants to persuade Trump that Russia won’t negotiate peace unless it faces additional sanctions from Europe and the U.S.

Sen. Lindsey Graham toured through Europe in recent days to gather support for a bill that would impose 500% tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil. Merz met Graham in Berlin on Monday and supports the initiative. Still, European officials acknowledge that no new U.S. sanctions are likely unless given Trump’s green light.

Graham told a local German newspaper that Merz should let Trump know that Europe, which still imports energy from Russia, was “ready to tolerate some pain.”

Backing a strong Europe
The two leaders are also likely to discuss the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in The Hague later this month, just days after a Group of Seven summit in Canada.

The Europeans want to persuade the U.S. that they are now spending real money on defense and rapidly rebuilding their long-neglected militaries. In exchange, they hope the U.S. will strongly reiterate its commitment to the military alliance.

Despite having the second-largest military budget in NATO, years of underspending have left Germany with depleted defenses. Under Merz, Berlin is ramping up procurement and has pledged to raise military spending from 2.1% of gross domestic product last year to 3.5%, with another 1.5% of GDP to be spent on defense-related infrastructure.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Singapore last weekend singled out Germany as a country that was stepping up its investment in defense, a speech that pleased Berlin.

Linking trade and security
One difficulty for Merz and his European counterparts will be to achieve progress on their priorities while trying to discourage Trump from using one area as leverage to extract concessions in another.

The Trump administration has, for example, cited U.S. security guarantees as a reason Washington should be getting a better deal with Europe on trade.

“Europe’s current dependency on the U.S. security umbrella and the openness of its economies make it highly vulnerable to geoeconomic coercion,” Constanze Stelzenmüller, an expert on Europe-U.S. relations at the Brookings Institution, said in a speech earlier this month.

WSJ : Trump Bans Citizens of 12 Countries From Traveling to U.S.

Trump Bans Citizens of 12 Countries From Traveling to U.S.
Ban includes Haiti, Afghanistan and Iran, while travel restrictions also were placed on an additional list of countries

Key Points
  • President Trump signed a travel ban on 12 countries, barring citizens from travel to the U.S.
  • Citizens of seven additional countries are barred from immigrating permanently or getting tourist/student visas.
  • Citizens of the seven countries are still eligible for temporary visas, such as H-1B and other work visas.

WASHINGTON—President Trump on Wednesday signed a sweeping travel ban on 12 countries, largely in the Middle East and Africa, and introduced more-limited travel restrictions on seven others, reintroducing a controversial immigration policy that came to define the early days of his first term.

The ban, which the White House announced, will completely bar travel to the U.S. by citizens of the following countries: Afghanistan, Myanmar (formerly Burma), Chad, The Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.

Citizens from an additional list of countries will be barred from permanently immigrating to the U.S., along with applying for tourist or student visas. Those countries are Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela. Citizens from these seven countries will still be eligible for other temporary visas, such as the H-1B or other temporary work visas.

The ban only applies to people currently outside the U.S., though anyone currently in the U.S. who leaves could get stuck abroad as a result of it. It also excludes any nationals of these countries who hold green cards, along with anyone traveling to the U.S. for coming major sporting events, including the World Cup in 2026 and the Olympics in 2028. Afghans who receive special immigrant visas—a visa reserved for Afghans who worked alongside the U.S. military during its two-decade presence in Afghanistan—are also exempt.

The administration justified the restrictions in a number of ways. Several of the countries, it said, had unacceptably high temporary visa overstay rates, necessitating a ban. Others, it said, couldn’t be relied upon to issue valid passports to verify a person’s identity. Haiti, the only country in the Western Hemisphere to face a complete ban, was included because “hundreds of thousands of illegal Haitian aliens flooded into the U.S. during the Biden administration,” the White House said.

Trump, in a video posted to his Truth Social platform, said the recent attack in Boulder, Colo., underscored dangers posed to the country. Mohamed Sabry Soliman, the suspect in the Boulder, Colo., flamethrower attack, was in the U.S. from Egypt on an expired visa, the Department of Homeland Security said, having entered the country in August 2022 on a B2 visa. That visa, typically used for tourism, expired in February 2023.

Egypt wasn’t on the list of banned countries.

Trump in the video said the list is subject to revision. “Very simply, we cannot have open migration from any country where we cannot safely and reliably vet and screen those who seek to enter the United States,” he said.

“My God, what misfortune we’ve had to suffer,” said Niurka Melendez, a Venezuelan who heads the advocacy group Venezuelans and Immigrants Aid in New York. “This is another terrible blow against our people. I mean, wow.”

Venezuelans who had hoped to join loved ones in the U.S. would now see their plans dashed, along with those simply hoping to visit or study in American colleges. She blamed the Venezuelan government for failing to issue official documents from passports to identification cards, leaving citizens unable to prove their identity.

The ban stops Cuban academics and students from attending U.S. colleges. It also bars a small but influential group of entrepreneurs and intellectuals who had previously been encouraged to visit the U.S. in support of their work on the island, said Augusto Maxwell, chair of Akerman LLP’s Cuba practice in Miami.

Some Democrats quickly decried the move.

“Banning a whole group of people because you disagree with the structure or function of their government not only lays blame in the wrong place, it creates a dangerous precedent,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D., Wash.), a progressive who is the top Democrat on the Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement.

“Further, banning people fleeing dangerous countries like Afghanistan—a country where many people are in danger due to their work assisting the U.S. military—the Congo, Haiti and Sudan, will only further destabilize global security,” Jayapal posted on X.

Trump repeatedly promised during the presidential campaign that, if re-elected, he would bring back an expanded version of his first travel ban, though the issuance of the ban took months longer than expected. In anticipation, numerous universities and businesses advised their students and employees to remain in the country after Trump’s inauguration to avoid being ensnared.

Citizens of many of the countries on the final list have been on high alert for months, after earlier lists circulated in several media reports. It isn’t likely, then, that the new ban would create scenes of chaos at airports across the country, as the first travel ban did when Trump signed it in a surprise move a week after taking office.

After several years of litigation, the Supreme Court in 2018 upheld the legality of Trump’s travel ban, so long as the administration could articulate a rationale for why countries are included. That will make it tougher for immigration advocates to challenge this new ban. Still, it isn’t clear how the administration included certain countries when others that meet similar criteria were left off the list.

FT : Fossil fuel spending to fall for first time since pandemic

Fossil fuel spending to fall for first time since pandemic
Decline is led by oil sector, where lower prices are forcing companies to reassess their plans, says IEA

Investment in fossil fuels will fall this year for the first time since the Covid pandemic, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), led by a contraction in the oil sector where a sharp drop in prices is forcing companies to reassess their plans. 

In its annual report on money flowing into the energy sector, the IEA predicted a 6 per cent drop in spending on oil production this year. Excluding the Covid-19 pandemic years, it will mark the largest fall since 2016, when oil prices crashed below $30 a barrel. 

“This is the first time we have seen such a decline, except for Covid, because of lower prices and lower oil demand,” said Fatih Birol, the head of the Paris-based intergovernmental energy advisory body. 

Since hitting $82 a barrel in mid-January, oil prices have fallen to about $65 a barrel after Opec, the oil cartel, started to significantly increase its production. The IEA said US shale oil producers, who account for 15 per cent of global spending on oil production, were the most sensitive to lower prices and would cut their investment by 10 per cent this year. 

It also expects international oil majors to slightly reduce their spending, as they prioritise shareholder returns. The pull back means that the giant state oil companies of the Middle East and Asia will account for 40 per cent of all spending on oil and gas this year, compared to a quarter ten years ago. 

Oil majors are also continuing to cut their spending on clean energy, with the IEA noting that they had collectively invested $22bn in low emissions technology in 2024, some 25 per cent less than the year before.

Overall, the IEA said the world would spend $1.1tn on fossil fuels in 2025, compared with more than $2.2tn on renewable energy, nuclear, batteries, power grids, low emission fuels and energy efficiency. 

While overall spending on fossil fuels will shrink by 2 per cent this year, China and India have both committed to build significant fleets of coal-fired power plants to meet rapid electricity demand growth. By contrast, for the first time on record, the world’s advanced economies placed no new orders for turbines for coal-fired plants. 

“The addition of coal is mainly driven by energy security reasons,” said Birol. “China had some bitter experiences when there was very hot weather and hydropower was very weak,” said Birol. 

In the US, where the Trump administration has been plain about its disdain for renewable energy, Birol said the jump in electricity demand from AI and data centres would mean that there would be an additional need for renewables, gas and nuclear.

In a separate report, Enverus, a research firm, said that while there are 517 gigawatts of renewable energy projects in the US that need federal tax credits to be viable, there are 284 gigawatts that do not require such funding.

“If these projects are built at the same pace as last year, that is enough to sustain today’s build-out pace for more than six years,” said Corianna Mah, an analyst at Enverus.

Makor Weekly EU Risk Arb Monitor (04-06-25)


Makor Weekly EU Risk Arb Monitor

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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FT : Big investors shift away from US markets

Big investors shift away from US markets
Donald Trump’s trade war and rapidly mounting government debt have shaken confidence in American assets

Big institutional investors are shifting away from US markets as Donald Trump’s trade wars and the country’s escalating debt fuel fears about the dominance of American assets in global portfolios.

The US president’s erratic trade policy has shaken global markets in recent months, sparking a sharp sell-off in the US dollar and leaving Wall Street stocks lagging far behind European rivals this year.

Trump’s landmark tax bill, which is forecast to add $2.4tn to Washington’s debt over the next decade, has also increased pressure on US Treasuries.

“People need to rethink” their exposure to the US, said Seth Bernstein, chief executive of AllianceBernstein, which manages $780bn in assets.

“The deficit has been out there as an issue; it’s just getting worse,” he added. “I think it is untenable for the United States to continue borrowing at the pace it’s borrowing . . . When you couple that with what’s going on with the unpredictability of our trade policy . . . It should cause people to pause and consider: how much do you want concentrated in one market?”

A top executive at a big American private capital firm described Trump’s so-called liberation day, when the president unveiled sweeping tariffs on Washington’s trading partners, as “a wake-up call to a lot of people that they were overweight the US”.

As institutional investors review the extent of their holdings in the US, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, Canada’s second-largest pension fund, said recently it would reduce its exposure to the country — currently 40 per cent of its portfolio. It plans to increase investment in the UK, France and Germany.

“The US has been the best place in the world to invest for a century, but I’m starting to hear investors question whether US exceptionalism is a little less exceptional, and think about whether to position their portfolios accordingly,” Howard Marks, co-founder of $203bn alternatives manager Oaktree Capital Management, told the Financial Times.

US stocks have recouped the losses that followed Trump’s announcement of the duties on April 2. But the S&P 500 remains less than 2 per cent up this year, compared with 9 per cent for the Stoxx Europe 600 index.

The dollar is close to a three-year low — down 9 per cent this year — even though Trump has retreated on many of the tariffs he initially announced.

Investors say that the global dominance of the US economy and the depth of its capital markets mean it will remain the premier destination for global investment.

However, many are questioning whether more than a decade and a half of inflows and outperformance — which pushed the US share of global equity market value to around two-thirds by the start of this year — is headed into reverse.

“We have started to see the early signs of investors shifting away from the US,” said Richard Oldfield, chief executive of UK asset manager Schroders.

Markets in Europe, where a €1tn German spending spree on defence and infrastructure is expected to boost growth, have been a beneficiary of investors’ wariness over US exposure.

“We’ve been quite, quite optimistic” on Europe, says Tom Nides, a vice chair at Blackstone. “Governments are relatively stable here. Shifting money to Europe is certainly not a bad bet.”

New York-based investment firm Neuberger Berman has made 65 per cent of its private equity co-investments in Europe this year, up from 20-30 per cent in recent years, according to Joana Rocha Scaff, its head of European private equity.

“There is more interest in Europe,” she said. “It’s more than tariffs. The macro backdrop in Europe has not been more benign than the US but it’s more stable . . . It’s not just the trade wars but some of the domestic instability [in the US] and proposed tax bills that impact non-US investors.”

Some investors question whether smaller, more fragmented markets in Europe and Asia offer a meaningful alternative.

“Europe still has sclerotic growth and a very high level of regulation, and China is still complicated,” said Oaktree’s Marks. “Where else can large amounts of capital be deployed?”