>>> What to look at today - 13th of October 2025

US equity-index futures climbed after President Donald Trump signaled an openness to a deal with China, improving sentiment after markets were rattled by a sharp escalation in trade tensions. Contracts for the S&P 500 rose 1.2% and those for the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.6% as the administration toned down its rhetoric after Trump threatened tariffs of 100% on China in response to Chinese export controls. The 10-year US Treasury futures contract opened higher and oil rose 1.4%. Silver swung near a record as a historic short squeeze in London and trade tensions roiled the market, while gold set a new peak. Cryptocurrencies stabilized and contracts indicated a stronger open for European stocks. Declines in Asian shares, which were closed when Trump made his comments Friday, indicate concerns about the durability of the truce. Mainland China stocks fell 1.8% while Hong Kong had its biggest intraday drop since early April. Japan is closed for a holiday, with no cash trading in Treasuries. Big downward moves in risky assets have been a rarity of late, which may itself be a factor in the jarring reaction to trade tensions. Since the tariff-fueled meltdown in April, the S&P 500 has surged on optimism about AI and hopes for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The gauge is trading near one of its highest valuations in 25 years — leaving a thin cushion for bad news.  After China unveiled wide-ranging global export controls on products containing even traces of certain rare earths this past week, Trump fired back by threatening to cancel a planned in-person meeting with Xi Jinping — their first in six years.  Trump said he would impose an additional 100% tariff on China as well as export controls on “any and all critical software” beginning Nov. 1. China responded, saying the US should stop threatening it with higher tariffs and urged further negotiations to resolve outstanding trade issues, adding it will not hesitate to retaliate, should Washington persist in its measures against Beijing. On Sunday, the administration signaled an openness to a deal with China with Trump hinting at a possible off-ramp for Xi, while issuing a veiled threat that a full trade war would hurt China.  That suggests the US wants to keep up the pressure on China to reverse its most recent trade moves, while trying to reassure spooked markets that a tit-for-tat escalation isn’t inevitable. Meanwhile, Chinese shipments overseas grew at the fastest in six months, far exceeding forecasts in a sign of resilience that’s giving Beijing a stronger hand in the latest trade war with the US.  Elsewhere, Australia’s dollar led a rebound in risk-sensitive currencies as Trump’s more conciliatory rhetoric toward China boosted investor sentiment and crimped demand for haven assets. Haven assets dropped Monday with both the yen and Swiss franc weakening against the dollar. An Asian currency index fell to the lowest since May. Markets are seeing “a bit of payback” to Friday’s price action in currencies on hopes of a US-China de-escalation, said Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. In European news, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new cabinet Sunday as pressure builds for him and his reappointed prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, to head off France’s growing political crisis and pass a budget. French bond futures opened lower.

Nikkei Closed Hang Seng -2.72% CSI -1.07% Shanghai -0.61% Shenzen -1.47%

Eur$ 1.1620 CNH 7.1359 CNY 7.1298 JPY 151.86 GBP 1.3349 CHF 0.8013 RUB 81.7341 TRY 41.8174 WTI$ 59.72 +1.39% Gold 4,0666 +1.19% BTC 114,750 -0.40% ETH 4,123 -0.41%

S&P +1.33% Nasdaq +1.78% EuroStoxx +0.45% FTSE +0.07% Dax +0.49% SMI +0.31%

Macro :
- S&P warns on US insurers’ growing bet on private credit
- Goldman Says Analysts Expect a Weak Reporting Season in Europe
- Oil Extends Drop Post-Session Trading as Trump Tariffs China
- Europe’s Half-Empty Car Plants Face Bleak Future on Weak Demand
- Denmark Buys 16 New Fighter Jets, Invests Billions in the Arctic
- Switzerland, China to Accelerate Trade Talks as US Tariffs Bite
- Crypto’s Record Selloff Sparks Intrigue Over Who Got Wiped Out

Keep an eye on :
- ABDN LN : Aberdeen to warn government over private assets for UK retail investors
- ADS GY : Adidas CEO Sees Little Impact On Global Strategy From US Tariffs
- AIR FP : Embraer predicts challenge to Boeing and Airbus duopoly
- AAPL US : Apple nears deal to acquire talent and technology from computer vision startup Prompt AI
- AZN LN : Trump Announces AstraZeneca Drug Price Cuts for Tariff Reprieve
- BMW GY : BMW seeks meeting with Rachel Reeves over finance scandal bill
- CRWV US : CoreWeave Insiders Sold $1 Billion Post-IPO as AI Rich Cash Out
- CTPNV NA : CTP Announces Conversion Ratio of 2025 Interim Dividend
- DELL US : Dell Is Just Beginning to Tell Its AI Story. Buy the Stock.The company is transforming itself into a growth stock but not being treated as one by the market. - Barron's
- DHER GY : Bernstein Trims Delivery Hero Price Target Amid 'More Cautious' Stance on Asia Earnings Performance
- DRO GR : DroneShield's DroneSentry Product Evaluated by UK Government Agency; Shares Down 5%
- LLY US : A Major Eli Lilly Shareholder Has Sold Stock Nearly Every Day in October. Here’s Who It Is. - Barron's
- ERJ US : Embraer predicts challenge to Boeing and Airbus duopoly
- EXENS FP : Theon to Buy 9.8% Stake in French Night-Vision Gear Firm Exosens
- RACE IM : Ferrari’s EV Reveal: A Top for the Stock? Sizing Up Thursday’s Plunge - Barron's
- HOLMB SS : Holmen Says Stockholm Court Grants Right to Tax Deductions
- HSBA LN : HSBC’s $14 Billion Deal Supercharges Exuberant Year in Hong Kong
- IDR SM : Indra Set to Receive up to €4.2B Loan From Spain: Confidencial
- ISO CN : Isoenergy to Buy Toro Energy
- JNJ US : J&J Is in Talks to Buy Protagonist Therapeutics, WSJ Reports
- BAER SW : Julius Baer Was Key Lender to Collapsed German Firm Degag: HB
- Kinetic Bus Group (Private Aussi Co.) : TPG Capital set to buy into multi-billion bus group Kinetic
- LGEN LN : Legal & General Interested in NatWest’s Cushon, Sky Reports
- MANU US : Manchester United Rises on Report of ‘Fresh Takeover Interest’
- MEG CN : Strathcona Ends Bid to Buy MEG Energy, Clearing Way for Cenovus
- META US : Thinking Machines Lab Co-Founder Departs for Meta -- WSJ
- MBTN SW : Swiss Exchange Says Meyer Burger Shares Will Delist on Jan. 14
- MKSI US : MKS Instruments to offload $1bn chemicals unit to focus on chips
- MOBN SW : Mobimo: Egli to Leave Firm Amid Board Reorganization
- Navan IPO : Travel Software Firm Navan, Holders Seek $960 Million in US IPO
- NExperia (Private Co) : Dutch government takes control of Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia
- PSN L N : UK Homebuilders Barratt, Persimmon Launch Own Help to Buy Offers
- PSAN GY : Warburg Pincus Offers to Buy PSI Software for €45/Share
- PTGX US : Protagonist Jumps on Report J&J in Talks to Buy: Street Wrap
- RUL AU :Caterpillar Inc. Enters Into Agreement to Acquire RPMGlobal
- TECN SW : Tecan Sees FY Adjusted Ebitda Margin 17.5% to 18.5%
- TSCO LN : Tesco in talks to spearhead Labour’s plan to solve sickness crisis
- THEON NA : Theon to Buy 9.8% Stake in French Night-Vision Gear Firm Exosens
- BBOX LN :
- 2330 TT : TSMC Supplier MKS to Sell $1 Billion Chemicals Unit, FT Says
- TOD IM : Luxury Probes Threaten Made-in-Italy Brand, Tod’s Chairman Says
- UNH US : UnitedHealth paid AARP $9 billion to sell branded health coverage
- WBD US : Warner Bros. Discovery sale talks heat up after initial Paramount bid rejected

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of October 2025

>>> Up
* Air Liquide Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander
* Argan Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $315
* ASML ADRs Raised to Hold at GF Securities; PT $882
* DNB Bank Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 287 kroner
* Estee Lauder Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $115
* Fresnillo Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 2,000 pence
* Legrand Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 167 euros
* Logitech PT raised from 88 to 100 CHF at Kepler Cheuvreux
* M&G Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 342 pence
* Newmont Corp Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $104.30
* Norwegian Air Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 17.75 kroner
* SUSS MicroTec Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 45 euros

>>> Down
* Cemex ADRs Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $10
* Enersense Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 4.70 euros
* Envipco Cut to Sell at SB1 Markets; PT 5.53 euros
* Ericsson Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 80 kronor
* Grieg Seafood Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 74 kroner
* Heineken Cut to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Leroy Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 52 kroner
* Mycronic Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 225 kronor
* Novartis Cut to Hold at Intron Health; PT 110 Swiss francs
* Straumann Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 100 Swiss francs
* Tele2 Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 164 kronor
* Tomra Cut to Sell at SB1 Markets; PT 125 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Aviva Resumed Outperform at RBC; PT 800 pence
* Ebro EV Motors Rated New Buy at JB Capital Markets
* Kainos Rated New Add at Peel Hunt; PT 1,100 pence
* Kongsberg Automotive Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities
* MTU Aero Rated New Equal-Weight at Oxcap; PT 405 euros
* Rexel Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 28 euros
* Stubhub Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $30

>>> Call
* Aviva Set for Better Capital Returns, Resumed Outperform at RBC
* Bernstein Trims Delivery Hero Price Target Amid 'More Cautious' Stance on Asia Earnings Performance
* Goldman Cautions ‘Wider Range of Outcomes’ From US-China Tension
* Major China Stock Selloff Could Produce Buy Opportunity: JPM
* Nomura Sees ‘Decent Chance’ of Xi-Trump Meeting Despite Tensions

FT : Greenpeace threatens to sue Crown Estate for pushing up UK energy prices

Greenpeace threatens to sue Crown Estate for pushing up UK energy prices
Cost of offshore wind increased by monopoly ownership of seabed, alleges campaign group

The Crown Estate has been accused of pushing up the costs of offshore wind power by exploiting its monopoly ownership of the seabed, adding to consumer bills and stunting the industry. 

Greenpeace, the environmental lobby group, alleges that the Crown Estate has created excessive costs for wind power developers and hefty profits for itself by designing an “aggressive” auction process for seabed rights. 

It says the Crown Estate, a public corporation that runs the British monarchy’s legacy portfolio of land and property holdings, has a legal duty not to exploit its monopoly position as owner of the seabed around England and Wales, but has now breached this. The seabed around Scotland is owned by Crown Estate Scotland.

Greenpeace is threatening to sue the Crown Estate unless it conducts future leasing rounds differently.  

“The profits derived from this approach . . . have been enormous,” Greenpeace said in a letter to the Crown Estate sent in June, seen by the Financial Times. 

“However, this has come at the expense of the development of offshore wind power in the UK, which is essential to the UK meeting its net zero ambition and binding international and domestic [carbon] targets.”

The Crown Estate has rejected Greenpeace’s claims, arguing that Greenpeace has misinterpreted the Crown Estate’s legal duties.

The row comes at a critical moment for the UK’s offshore wind industry, which has developed rapidly over the past decade to become the second-largest-market apart from China, supplying about 17 per cent of the UK’s electricity last year.

The UK government wants to roughly triple offshore wind capacity by 2030 in order to meet its goal of decarbonising the electricity sector by then. 

But the sector has been hit by rising costs and supply chain strains over the past few years.

Greenpeace argues that the Crown Estate’s auction of seabed leasing sites in 2021 contributed to these issues by introducing competitive bidding, as opposed to setting a fixed price as it had in previous years, and running several cycles of sealed bids. 

It says it also drove up wider system costs by pushing more development towards Scottish waters, where fees were capped in 2021 by Crown Estate Scotland, albeit at 10 times the previous level.

Scottish wind farms are often paid to switch off because the grid is not sufficiently robust to bring the power south to where demand is highest.

Strong competition for the rights to the 2021 leasing round led to developers agreeing to pay annual fees totalling £879mn to the Crown Estate.

Greenpeace argues the Crown Estate has a duty under the Crown Estate Act of 1961 to “exclude the monopoly value” from its ownership of the seabed when setting lease prices. 

Roger Bright, former chief executive of the Crown Estate, said in his evidence to Parliament in 2010: “The first thing to say is that our Act expressly says that we may not take advantage of our monopoly position”.

But the Crown Estate now argues that the law merely allows it to not seek the maximum it could from its monopoly position, according to legal correspondence seen by the FT.

Fuelled by the ongoing profits from its round 4 fees, the Crown Estate’s staff numbers have doubled to 868 in 2024/25 and the chief executive Dan Labbad’s annual pay has leapt to almost £1.95mn compared with the £375,000 paid to his predecessor.

In a statement Will McCallum, co-executive director of Greenpeace, said: “The Crown Estate should be managing the seabed in the interest of the nation and the common good, not as an asset to be milked for profit.”

The Crown Estate said: “Our focus is on successfully enabling the UK to move forward with its clean energy transition while reducing our reliance on other countries and volatile energy markets, as well as supporting nature and job creation through the supply chain.

“The Crown Estate has worked in partnership with government and industry over the last 25 years to establish the UK as a world-leading market for offshore wind development that now meets the equivalent electricity needs of over half of UK households and supporting tens of thousands of jobs.”

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Sanofi (SNW TH) +2.2%
  • Ferrovial (8ZQ TH) +2.2%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) +2%
  • Wienerberger (WIB TH) +1.9%
  • Fresnillo (FNL TH) +1.8%
    • Fresnillo Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 2,000 pence
  • Grifols (OZTA TH) +1.7%
  • Prudential (PRU TH) +1.5%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.3%
  • Unipol (UIPN TH) -1.3%
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) -1.3%
  • BPER Banca (4BE TH) -1.3%
  • Thales (CSF TH) -1.4%
  • Voestalpine (VAS TH) -1.4%
  • Novo (NOV TH) -1.9%
  • ACS (OCI1 TH) -2%
  • Babcock (BW3 TH) -2.2%
  • Halma (H11 TH) -2.8%
  • Zealand Pharma (22Z TH) -3.1%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Brenntag (BNR TH) +1.1%
  • BMW (BMW TH) +1%
MDAX:
  • Stroeer (SAX TH) +3.1%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +2%
  • Traton (8TRA TH) +1.8%
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) +1.7%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.5%
  • United Internet (UTDI TH) -1%
SDAX:
  • SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) +3.2%
    • SUSS MicroTec Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 45 euros
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) +1.6%
  • Energiekontor (EKT TH) +1.4%
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) +1.3%
  • ProCredit Holding (PCZ TH) -1.5%
  • Salzgitter (SZG TH) -1.9%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) -3.2%