Germany’s Leader Has a Message for Trump: We Need You, but You Also Need Us
Trade, defense and Ukraine will dominate when Chancellor Merz, President Trump meet at White House
Germany’s new chancellor will have a mission when he meets President Trump in the Oval Office for the first time Thursday: keeping him invested in the fate of Europe.
Friedrich Merz is the latest in a string of European leaders who have traveled to the White House in recent weeks in a coordinated campaign to cajole Trump into backing new sanctions on Russia, striking a trade deal with the European Union and reaffirming America’s security commitment to the region.
Merz, Germany’s new center-right leader, has an additional task—developing a personal rapport with Trump, whose grandfather was born in the German town of Kallstadt. Unlike French President Emmanuel Macron, Merz hasn’t had much interaction with Trump, aside from a brief encounter many years ago and several phone calls this year.
The straight-laced chancellor has none of Trump’s backslapping joviality or biting humor. But the two do share some things in common: Both are former businessmen who aren’t known for excessive patience. They will also be able to speak without interpreters since Merz speaks near accent-free English.
Still, the meeting won’t be without its risks for Merz. Trump’s showdowns with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa have shown how unpredictable visits to the Oval Office can be with Trump.
But Trump administration officials don’t expect a similar blowup with Merz. Despite repeated U.S. concerns about free speech in Europe, and in Germany in particular, they feel the session will be routine and friendly, especially if Merz doesn’t overreact to any biting statements made by the president.
“There will be a lot of attention given to the body language and facial expressions,” said Sudha David-Wilp, vice president at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. “My hope is that there is no faux pas and that the sensitive issues are discussed behind closed doors.”
Get trade flowing again
Germany’s export-dependent economy stands to lose more than most in Europe from a protracted trade war with the U.S., its largest trade partner. Even though Trump has suspended his threatened 50% tariffs on European exports until July 9, Germany’s flagship auto industry is already subject to 25% levies.
Merz is expected to argue that the U.S. needs Europe in an effort to present a united front against China. He has long floated bigger German purchases of U.S. defense equipment and natural gas as potential offerings in trade negotiations. Berlin is also happy to discuss lowering traditional nontariff barriers, such as car specifications, to improve market access for U.S. goods.
But reforming the country’s value-added tax or amending European legislation governing social-media platforms, which the U.S. has also designated as nontariff barriers, aren’t on the table.
Pressure on Russia
As the U.S. gears down its support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion, the Trump team expects Merz to outline how Germany, and Europe more broadly, will shoulder more of the responsibility.
Merz, for his part, wants to persuade Trump that Russia won’t negotiate peace unless it faces additional sanctions from Europe and the U.S.
Sen. Lindsey Graham toured through Europe in recent days to gather support for a bill that would impose 500% tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil. Merz met Graham in Berlin on Monday and supports the initiative. Still, European officials acknowledge that no new U.S. sanctions are likely unless given Trump’s green light.
Graham told a local German newspaper that Merz should let Trump know that Europe, which still imports energy from Russia, was “ready to tolerate some pain.”
Backing a strong Europe
The two leaders are also likely to discuss the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in The Hague later this month, just days after a Group of Seven summit in Canada.
The Europeans want to persuade the U.S. that they are now spending real money on defense and rapidly rebuilding their long-neglected militaries. In exchange, they hope the U.S. will strongly reiterate its commitment to the military alliance.
Despite having the second-largest military budget in NATO, years of underspending have left Germany with depleted defenses. Under Merz, Berlin is ramping up procurement and has pledged to raise military spending from 2.1% of gross domestic product last year to 3.5%, with another 1.5% of GDP to be spent on defense-related infrastructure.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Singapore last weekend singled out Germany as a country that was stepping up its investment in defense, a speech that pleased Berlin.
Linking trade and security
One difficulty for Merz and his European counterparts will be to achieve progress on their priorities while trying to discourage Trump from using one area as leverage to extract concessions in another.
The Trump administration has, for example, cited U.S. security guarantees as a reason Washington should be getting a better deal with Europe on trade.
“Europe’s current dependency on the U.S. security umbrella and the openness of its economies make it highly vulnerable to geoeconomic coercion,” Constanze Stelzenmüller, an expert on Europe-U.S. relations at the Brookings Institution, said in a speech earlier this month.