>>> Coty looking for more buys

Coty looking for more buys

Coty, the US cosmetics group, is keeping an eye out for more acquisitions following the acquisition of Procter & Gamble's (P&G) fragrance brands, Lebensmittel Zeitung reported. Peter Harf, Chief Executive of Coty main shareholder JAB Holdings, told the German weekly the group is on its way to becoming a global player and he is keeping an eye out for acquisition opportunities.

Lebensmittel Zeitung

>>> Weir Group attracts interest from US-based groups – market report

Weir Group attracts interest from US-based groups – market report
Weir Group (WEIR:LN) has attracted the interest of potential bidders from the US, according to City sources cited by a Daily Mail market report.

The newspaper noted that the listed UK-based company's share price has fallen from close to 2600p in May last year to about 1600p, making the FTSE-100 engineering company a cheap target for potential predators.

Weir Group’s share price closed 67p up at 1661p in London yesterday, 16 July, giving the company a market capitalisation of GBP 3.41bn (EUR 4.89bn).
Source Daily Mail

(Barcap) Carrefour : Spanish Upside

* Carrefour Spain on the right track: Carrefour’s 2Q performance in Spain seemingly
marked a turning point as like-for-like sales were positive in both food and non-food.
Thanks to its multi-format strategy, adapted non-food offer and strong execution, we see
Carrefour as well positioned to take advantage of the improving economic environment in
Spain. Given that Carrefour’s cost structure in this country is lean, we believe that its
operating leverage is significant and we do not see any reason why its operating margin
could not gradually return to pre-crisis levels (4-5%). We expect the 1H results (due 31
July) will show evidence of Carrefour’s margin potential in Southern Europe thanks also to
lower operating losses in Italy (we include our 1H preview in this note).

* The story is not over in France: Even though Carrefour’s 2Q performances were
admittedly a touch below our expectations, we expect the performances will improve in
2H partly thanks to easier comps and the ongoing remodeling programme. Although
DIA’s restructuring includes risk factors and we forecast Carrefour’s operating profit in
France will decline in both 1H and FY15 partly due to DIA France’s estimated €70mn
losses, we think DIA’s performance offers further upside potential in the future. We
remain confident that Carrefour could raise DIA’s sales densities, which are the lowest in
the French food retail sector (€3,100 per sq m per annum vs a minimum of €4,500 for
Carrefour’s existing convenience store formats in France.

* Overweight rating reiterated with a price target of €34.50: We raise our EPS forecasts
by an average of 2% to factor in our more upbeat outlook on the group’s Spanish
performances. We now expect consolidated operating profit of €2.52bn for this year, in line
with the company’s guidance, leading to double-digit EPS growth. Although Carrefour will
likely continue to face headwinds in emerging markets, we believe it still offers an attractive
risk/reward trade-off, while there are still potential positive catalysts ahead (recall that
Carrefour announced that it might contemplate an IPO of its Brazilian division and/or its
Carmila real estate unit at some point). Carrefour is trading on a FY16E P/E of 15.5x vs
16.8x for the European sector average and 15.8x for its most comparable peer Casino.

(BofA-ML) Flow Show - $8.3bn inflows Equities in Flows

>>> Asset Class Flows
- Equities: $8.3bn inflows (note divergence between $10.5bn ETF inflows and $2.1bn mutual fund outflows)
- Bonds: $1.1bn inflows (ends 5 straight weeks of outflows)
- Precious Metals: $0.4bn outflows (3 straight weeks)

>>> Equity Flows
- Japan: big $5.0bn inflows (inflows in 20 out of past 21 weeks); largest inflows since Apr’14
- Europe: $3.0bn inflows (9 straight weeks)
- EM: $6.8bn outflows (largest in 5 weeks)
- US: $5.2bn inflows ($7.4bn ETF inflows vs $2.3bn mutual fund outflows)
- Note that flows to high “yield” beginning to roll-over and show signs of fatigue


>>> Fixed Income Flows
- Chunky $2.3bn outflows from IG bond funds (largest since Dec’13)
- First inflows to HY bond funds in 6 weeks ($1.3bn)
- $0.5bn outflows from EM debt funds (outflows in 7 out of past 8 weeks)
- Big $2.6bn inflows to govt/tsy funds (largest since Feb’15)
- 6 straight weeks of outflows from municipal bond funds (modest $0.3bn)

>>> What to look at today - 17th of July 2015

Dow +0.39% S&P +0.80% NAsdaq +1.26% Russell +0.66%
US Market closed Higher. Mkt was up all day on greek vote & Better earning in the US (INTC & NFLX)...GS & C didn't helped as the stock were mixed after better earnings. Large cap technology components like Apple (AAPL 128.51, +1.69), Google (GOOGL 601.78, +17.82) and Microsoft (MSFT 46.66, +0.90) climbed between 1.3% and 3.1% while Intel alternated between gains and losses before settling higher by 0.7%. On the downside, the materials sector (-0.3%) spent the day in negative territory amid broad weakness while the energy sector (+0.1%) was able to stay in the green even though crude oil fell 1.0% to $50.91/bbl. Volume were in line @ 723mil shares. US After Hours HTZ +14.3%, GOOG +11.2% {NSN NRLP2U6KLVR4<Go>}, MDRX +10.1%, AMD +2.1%, SWI -10.0%, CYT -9.0% following earnings/guidance...After another volatile week, Shanghai Composite is posting solid gains on what had previously been a terrible trading day (Friday) in recent weeks. With a near 2% rally, Shanghai Composite is now unchanged from last Friday's close heading into the break. After yesterday's growth downgrade for China and the region by the ADB, today's comments from World Bank were more upbeat, indicating the country's economic fundamentals are sound. China Securities Finance (CSF) continues to provide liquidity, with reports of the entity having received a credit facility of CNY2T from banks. Going into Friday's formal vote in Germany's Bundestag lower house of parliament, a resounding majority of conservative lawmakers had reportedly voted in favor of starting talks on the Greek bailout. Reports suggest this gives Chancellor Merkel the mandate to proceed to negotiations. Separately, Greek Finance Minister also confirmed earlier speculation that banks will reopen on Monday after the ECB lifted the cap on ELA lending, though separate reports indicated the daily ATM withdrawal limit would be unchanged at €60 per day. The yield on the Greek 10-year continued to come off its recent highs, falling over 80bps toward 11%.

Nikkei +0.22% Hang Seng +1.15% Shanghai+2.79%

Eur$ 1.0880 JPY 124.06 GBP 1.5636 EURCHF 1.0415 RUB $56.9495 WTI $50.90(-0.02%)

S&P -0.04% EuroStoxx +0.11% Dax +0.03% SMI +0.23%

Macro :
- Germany Offers Verdict on Greek Aid After Draghi Endorsement

Keep an eye on :
- ABG/P SM : Citigroup Announces Placement of 4.17% of Abengoa Class B Shrs, placed @ €2.80 (-3.1% disc)
- AF FP : Air France to Merge Regional Units Under Hop! Brand: Echos
- ATO FP : *ATOS, SIEMENS SEEK WAYS TO EXTEND THEIR ALLIANCE
- BETSB SS : Betsson Says 2Q Revenue Up 14% to Highest Quarterly Figure Ever
- BIM FP : BioMerieux 2Q Sales Rise 18%; Confirms Organic Revenue Forecast
- BPTY LN : 888 Agrees to Buy Bwin.Party in Deal Valued at 104.09 Pence/Shr
- BC IM : Cucinelli 2Q Sales Beat Ests., Sees ‘Beautiful’ 2015
- DTE GY : *DISH TALKS TO BUY T-MOBILE SAID TO STALL ON STRUCTURE, PRICE
- ERICB SS : Ericsson 2Q Sales Beat, Gross Margin Misses Ests.
- GIVN VX : Givaudan 1H Ebitda Beats Estimates, Confirms Outlook
- IPN FP : Ipsen Wins FDA Approval for Treatment of Upper Limb Spasticity
- L1OA GY : Lloyd Fonds Mulls Capital Increase, Boersen-Zeitung Reports
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Gets FDA Approval for Injection Product
- ORA FP : Orange Espana to Begin Trading in 2017: Expansion
- ORK NO : Orkla 2Q Operating Revenue NOK7.7b vs Est. NOK7.5b
- SAABB SS : Saab 2Q Operating Profit Misses Est.
- SCHA NO : Schibsted 2Q Net Income Beats Estimates, Reiterates Rev Target
- TKA AV : Telekom Austria 2Q Sales, Ebitda Beat Ests.; Rev. Outlook Cut
- TLSN SS : TeliaSonera 2Q Ebitda Beats Est.; Keeps 2015 Outlook
- VIRB FP : Virbac 2Q Rev. EU221.1m vs EU185.8m Y/y
- VOLVB SS : Volvo 2Q Sales Beat Est., Volvo’s Renault Trucks Wins EU500M Canada Army Contract: Echos
- WRT1V FH : Waertsilae Adjusts Ship Power Ops Due to Weak Market; Sales Beat
- ZC FP : Zodiac May Relocate Equipment to Continue Production: Reuters

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of July 2015

>>> Up
*ALTICE RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT HSBC
*CENTRICA RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT HSBC
*COM HEM RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT BERENBERG
*CGG RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*HENDERSON GROUP RAISED TO HOLD AT JEFFERIES

>>> Down
*CREDIT SUISSE CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*FRESENIUS SE CUT TO NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*FF GROUP CUT TO REDUCE VS BUY AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*JD WETHERSPOON CUT TO REDUCE VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA
*OCADO CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*RESTAURANT GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA
*SWEDBANK CUT TO SELL AT NORDEA
*TERNA CUT TO REDUCE VS HOLD AT HSBC

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation


>>> Call
>> Stock
*ORANGE REITERATED CL AT GOLDMAN (note attached)
>> Sector
*AUTO SECTOR UPDATE : JUNE DATA AT GOLDMAN (PREFER PSA<FCA & DAI) (Note attached)

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: Equities rally into the weekend as Greece confirms banks will reopen


***Economic Data***
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUN ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: -0.6% V -0.6% PRIOR
- (AU) Australia May Conference Board Leading index m/m: +0.2% v -0.3% prior
- (KR) South Korea Jun PPI Y/Y: -3.6% v -3.5% prior; 11th month of decline
- (US) MAY NET LONG-TERM TIC FLOWS: $93B V $30.0BE; TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS: $115B V $106.6B PRIOR

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.2%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi -0.7%, Shanghai Composite +1.7%, Hang Seng +1.0%, Sept S&P500 flat at 2,116

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Aug gold flat at $1,143/oz, Aug crude oil +0.4% at $51.13/brl, Sept copper flat at $2.52/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.2 tonnes to 707.9 tonnes
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥375B in 1-3yr JGBs, ¥425B in 3-5yr JGBs, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs, and ¥140B in 25yr+ JGBs
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$800M in 1.75% 2020 Bonds; avg yield: 2.3636%; bid-to-cover: 3.95x
- USD/CNY: PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1192 v 6.1173 prior setting; weakest Yuan setting since Jun 8th
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending July 15th: $4.49T v $4.48T prior; M1 y/y change: 7.2% v 7.4% prior; M2 y/y change: 5.8% v 5.9% prior

***Market Focal Points/FX***
After another volatile week, Shanghai Composite is posting solid gains on what had previously been a terrible trading day (Friday) in recent weeks. With a near 2% rally, Shanghai Composite is now unchanged from last Friday's close heading into the break. After yesterday's growth downgrade for China and the region by the ADB, today's comments from World Bank were more upbeat, indicating the country's economic fundamentals are sound. China Securities Finance (CSF) continues to provide liquidity, with reports of the entity having received a credit facility of CNY2T from banks.

Going into Friday's formal vote in Germany's Bundestag lower house of parliament, a resounding majority of conservative lawmakers had reportedly voted in favor of starting talks on the Greek bailout. Reports suggest this gives Chancellor Merkel the mandate to proceed to negotiations. Separately, Greek Finance Minister also confirmed earlier speculation that banks will reopen on Monday after the ECB lifted the cap on ELA lending, though separate reports indicated the daily ATM withdrawal limit would be unchanged at €60 per day. The yield on the Greek 10-year continued to come off its recent highs, falling over 80bps toward 11%.

In FX, NZD/USD was once again the most active among USD majors, rising nearly 40pips toward 0.6540, although the move was considered to be corrective after a steep decline this week to 6-year lows. Analysts with Westpac are particularly aggressive in expectation of further RBNZ easing, forecasting 125bps in additional cuts to 2.00% with possibility of a 50bp move. AUD/USD was up just over 10pips above $0.7410, while USD/JPY traded in a 20pip range above 124. USD will likely see more volatile trading in early US hours with the release of the US CPI data.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- HTZ: Reports Q1 -$0.15, R$2.45B (v prelim Rev $2.44B given on 5/14) - quarterly filing; +13.7% afterhours
- GOOGL: Reports Q2 $6.99 v $6.76e, R$14.35B v $14.2Be; +12.2% afterhours
- AMD: Reports Q2 -$0.23 v -$0.16e, R$942M v $957Me; +2.7% afterhours
- SLB: Reports Q2 $0.88 v $0.79e, R$9.01B v $9.12Be; +1.4% afterhours
- MAT: Reports Q2 +$0.01 v -$0.05e, R$989M v $1.0Be; +0.4% afterhours
- SWI: Reports Q2 $0.52 v $0.46e, R$119.1M v $123Me; -9.5% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Tongkun Group Co Ltd 601233.CN +5.7% (H1 guidance); Vinda International 3331.HK -1.6% (H1 result)
- Financials: Industrial Securities 601377.CN +3.2% (H1 result); Dongxing Securities Co 601198.CN +3.9% (H1 result); Everbright Securities Co 601788.CN +7.3% (H1 guidance); China Merchants Land 978.HK +3.8% (H1 guidance)
- Industrials: Chongqing Gangjiu Co 600279.CN +4.0% (H1result); Samsung Heavy Industries 010140.KR -12.7% (Q2 result speculation)
- Technology: TSMC 2330.TW +2.2% (Q2 result); Sharp Corp 6753.JP -3.5% (Q1 result speculation)
- Materials: China Nonferrous Metals 1258.HK -9.4% (H1 guidance); Lynas Corp LYC.AU +6.6% (quarterly result)
- Energy: Santos Ltd STO.AU -0.3% (Q2 result)

>>> US After Hours Summary: HTZ +14.3%, GOOG +11.2%, MDRX +10.1%, AMD

After Hours Summary: HTZ +14.3%, GOOG +11.2%, MDRX +10.1%, AMD +2.1%, SWI -10.0%, CYT -9.0% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: HTZ +14.3%, GOOG +11.2%, MDRX +10.1%, TESS +3.4%, AMD +2.1%, CE +1.4%, SLB +1.3%, RECN +1.2%, MAT +0.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: HTZ +14.3% (completed financial restatement; provided FY15 business outlook; expects Hertz Equipment Rental Corporation separation to be completed in Q2 of 2016), FBRC +3.3% (Voce Capital Management disclosed 5.1% passive stake in 13G filing; Voce has engaged in discussions with management), RECN +1.2% (announced that effective as of August 31, 2015 Donald B. Murray will retire from his position as Executive Chairman and will remain Chairman of the Board)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: SWI -10.0%, CYT -9.0%, ANGO -3.3%, EDGW -2.0%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: DSCO -17.8% (announced an underwritten public offering of units; size not disclosed), TROV -11.2% (to sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering; size not disclosed), BLRX -2.2% (filed for $75 mln mixed securities shelf offering), ESV -1.6% (ConocoPhillips confirmed a notice of termination for the three-year ENSCO DS-9 drillship contract)