(BarCap) Italian Banks: Go for growth; Intesa to OW

Italian Banks: Go for growth; Intesa to OW
*INTESA – Upgrade to OW from EW. Raise PT to €3.70 from €3.10
*PMI (OW) Raise PT to €1.20 from €1.10
*UBI BANCA (OW) Lower PT to €9.20 from €9.50
*BMPS (EW) Raise PT to €1.70 from €1.60
*BANCO POPOLARE (EW) Raise PT to €14.80 from €14.20
*UNICREDIT (EW) Lower PT to €6.30 from €6.50
We upgrade Intesa Sanpaolo to Overweight on stronger revenue prospects: With interest rates expected to remain low for longer, we see fees as the main driver of revenue growth. We estimate that net interest margins will remain roughly stable, with little loan growth. We upgrade ISP to Overweight with a raised EUR3.7 price target, and maintain our Overweight rating on UBI and PMI, on the basis that these banks have the best revenue growth potential and solid capital positions. We remain Equal Weight on UCG, BP and MPS.

(UBS) Sanofi - Upgrade to Buy - PT Raised to €111 (from €100)

* Diabetes Risk discounted, Praluent under-appreciated
We believe Praluent (to lower LDL/ bad cholesterol) is Sanofi's most important launch in
2015/16 though consensus expectations remain modest, as uncertainty on many fronts
has resulted in what we view as excessive discounting of the market opportunity. In a
step-by-step approach we dissect the uncertainty: Including recent information and
insights from our survey of 50 cardiologists, which allows us to drill to the bottom of
the market's unease to come up with meaningful estimates for Praluent and the PCSK9
class: current consensus estimates imply over 90% access restrictions in the narrow onlabel
population, with the highest unmet need in 2016 that stays at >80% out to
2020. This seems too low to us. We raise our Praluent sales projections (2020E €6.8bn
vs €4.8bn, with further potential for upside), increasing our 2015E-20 Core EPS CAGR
to 7% from 6%. We expect Praluent sales beats from '16 that should result in fast
escalation of Praluent peak sales expectations. This should drive a re-rating of Sanofi
from the current sector discount to a premium. As a result, we upgrade to Buy and set
a new PT of €111 (19.5x 2016E Core EPS). The US Diabetes business remains a
potential headwind, but our forecast fully discounts a successful Tresiba launch later
this year, and further annual double-digit price erosion out to 2019, limiting further
negative earnings impact from Diabetes.

* Survey highlights huge gap of doctors' intention to consensus estimates
Our survey suggests doctors intend to treat c.7-9% of the target population as per the
current label already at this early stage in the launch. Praluent treatment rates implied
by cons (0.1%-0.2% in '16E, 0.7%-1.4% in '20E) seem too low in view of our survey
findings, and reflect huge haircuts for lack of access and poor compliance.

* Sarilumab, Dupilumab further meaningful under-appreciated late-stage assets
We project Sarilumab '23E sales of €1.4bn after a '17 launch, and dupilumab '23E sales
of €1.6bn after a '18 launch for atopic dermatitis only (asthma is not yet in our model).
Both products plus Praluent are part of Sanofi's Regeneron collaboration. In our new
model we model the REGN profit split according to the agreement

* Valuation: Upgrade to Buy from Neutral, PT raised to €111 from €100
Our PT is based on 19.5x 2016E and is underpinned by our NPV/ SOTP valuation.

>>> What to look at today - 8th of September 2015

US Market closed for Labour Day S&P Fut +0.75%
China trade surplus again topped consensus, but internal components remained soft. Exports decline of 5.5% was worse than expected 5%, while Imports component decline was more than double than anticipated. Exports to EU and Japan were not as bad as the prior month at -7.5% v -12.3% prior and -5.9% v -13.0% prior, but imports of key materials like crude oil and iron ore saw little improvement. Japan put out its Q2 Final GDP showing a smaller than initially reported decline. The two key components were little changed at Private consumption decline was -0.7% v -0.8%e v -0.8% prelim and CAPEX -0.9% v -0.9%e, v -0.1% prelim. Econ Min Amari said GDO revision was mainly due to inventories, urging Japan companies to invest their record-high earnings into more capex. Abe said his Abenomics policies are only halfway through, just as more critics of his agenda emerge. BLUE US Could be bought for $10b by end of 2016, Market cap is $4.6bil (EV $3.77bil) Energy Report is writting. Crude is trading -3.74% @ $ 44.32

Nikkei -2.4% Hang Seng +0.71% Shanghai -0.28%

Eur$ 1.1210 CNY 6.3687 JPY 119.10 EURCHF 1.0882 GBP 1.5346 RUB $69.21 WTI $ $44.31 (-3.74%)

S&P +0.81% EuroStoxx +0.12% Dax+0.20% SMI-0.06%

Macro :
- China’s Aug. Exports Fall 6.1% Y/y in Yuan Terms
- China’s Aug. Exports Fall 5.5% Y/y in Dollar; Est. 6.6% Fall
- Greek Bad Loans Ratio Said to Reach 45%, Kathimerini Reports
- Egypt Facing Tougher Sell on Second Post-Arab Spring Eurobond

Keep an eye on :
- AALB NA : Aalberts to Buy Car Valves Supplier Ventrex Automotive
- A2A IM : A2A looks to acquire complete control of Edipower - Il Messaggero
- ALO FP : Alstom Raised at Barclays; Shr Buyback Could Come as Early as 4Q
- AML LN : MS&AD Insurance Considers Buying Amlin for Overseas Growth
- AML LN : Amlin hires Evercore and Rothschild to advise on takeover talks with Mitsui Sumitomo
- BBVA SM : BBVA Seeks Buyers for Portugal Assets, Spain’s ABC reports
- BLUE US : Bluebird Bio could be acquired by end of 2016, possibly at value of around USD 10bn - Energy Report
- ENEL IM : Enel to sell around half of its 66% stake in Slovenske Elektrarne to EPH by end of this year - E15
- HYDR LI : VTB looks to sell on 20% stake in Rushydro - Vedomosti
- MOR GY : Morphosys Aims Be Fully Integrated Commercial Biopharma Comany
- ORA FP : Orange Plans to Replace Vignolles as Spain CEO: Expansion
- PGHN SW : Partners Group 1H Adj. Net Rises 26%, Sticks to 2015 Outlook
- RSA LN : RSA to Sell Latin America Operations to Suramericana for GBP403m
- SCHP FP : Séché Environnement Confirms FY Targets
- TEF SM : Telefonica Said in Talks to Rent Towers From America Movil
- UL FP : Lone Star Wants to Sell Coeur Defense in Paris for EU2B: Figaro
- WDF IM : World Duty Free Says Dufry’s Offer Price of EU10.25/Shr Is Fair
- ZAG AV : Zumtobel 1Q Net Rises 61% to EU9.2m; Confirms FY Outlook

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 8th of September 2015

>>> Up
*ALSTOM RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS {NSN NUCG816JIJUU<Go>}
*BP RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*BG GROUP RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA
*GLENCORE RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*INTESA SANPAOLO RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*MOL RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
*NESTE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*PKN ORLEN RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS
*REESINK RAISED TO BUY VS ACCUMULATE AT SNS
*RWE RAISED TO HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*SAIPEM RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
*SERCO GROUP RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*SSAB RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS
*SUEZ ENVIRONNEMENT RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*SWEDBANK RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*TENARIS RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN {NSN NUBTG06JIJUP<Go>}
*UCB RAISED TO ’HOLD’ AT JEFFERIES
*UNITED UTILITIES RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN

>>> Down
*HOME RETAIL CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*NORILSK NICKEL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT BOFA
*OUTOKUMPU CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT BOFA
*PETRA DIAMONDS CUT TO NEUTRAL AT BOFA
*PREMIER OIL CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*TECHNIP CUT TO REDUCE VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA

>>> PT Change
*ABERDEEN PT CUT AT RBC

>>> Initiation
*ADO PROPERTIES RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT EU24
*AMS AG RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT CHF55

>>> Call
>> Stock
*RWE REMOVED FROM KEPLER CHEUVREUX LEAST PREFERRED STOCKS LIST

FT Lex : Apple: bigger than big

Apple: bigger than big

Developing markets other than China may be the way to remain smartphone top dog

Apple is cursed with making the world’s most successful item of consumer electronics. The iPhone has sold 220m units at $650 apiece over the past year. Nice trick; how on earth to repeat it?
It will not be easy. Assume the iPhone replacement cycle is two years, that a cheery 95 per cent of buyers from two years ago recommit to the brand, and that prices are steady. For Apple to hit analysts’ revenue growth targets over the next 12 months, it must sell something like 80m iPhones to first-time customers. That is the population of Germany. This model is crude; it ignores how product releases delay demand (or pull it forward), but it points to the scale of the challenge.
This, naturally, makes investors nervous. So does the fact that trends shift rapidly in handsets. BlackBerry’s hardware revenues peaked at $16bn in 2012 and fell to $7bn two years later. So shareholders will be watching closely on Wednesday, when Apple is expected to unveil the latest iteration of the iPhone. At this point in the cycle Apple usually makes improvements rather than a brand new handset. It is placing bets on other devices too, including the watch and a TV box, and experimenting with cars. But it needs to keep growing the iPhone in order to keep its share price up.
The meat of recent iPhone growth has come from China. When, in 2011, Apple started splitting out results for “Greater China”, revenues were 9 per cent of the whole. Now they are well over 20 per cent and climbing. Yet there are other big markets. Buried invisibly within the “Europe” line on Apple’s results is India, a market of more than 1bn people.
In China, the iPhone accounted for 13.5 per cent of smartphone sales in the first half of the year, according to Gartner. The corresponding statistic in India is 1.8 per cent. Indians favour Samsung and homegrown brands such as Micromax. Persuading more of them to switch would give Apple a bit more diversity to soothe the worrywarts.

WSJ : China’s Fosun Sets Its Sights on Private Banks

China’s Fosun Sets Its Sights on Private Banks

The Shanghai conglomerate has a budget of $1 billion to $1.5 billion for each overseas financial acquisition

HONG KONG— Fosun International Ltd., the Shanghai conglomerate known for buying French resort operator Club Med and a host of global insurance assets, has a new target in mind: private banks.

The conglomerate that began as a Chinese drugs distributor two decades ago and went on a buying binge overseas in 2010, has in the past 12 months acquired $8 billion of insurers and other financial firms, expensive real estate and brands like Cirque du Soleil and Silver Cross, according to Dealogic.

Fosun is in the process of buying German private bank Hauck & Aufhauser for $233 million, which is awaiting German regulatory approval. It is also attempting to buy half of Belgium’s BHF Kleinwort Benson Group SA, which will give it a German private bank as well as British private bank Kleinwort Benson. Fosun’s chief executive said in an interview the group is looking to buy even more assets that cater to China’s rich and wealthy people across Europe and Japan. It currently owns a small stake in BHF Kleinwort Benson.

“We see that a lot of China’s middle class are looking for investments overseas and if we have private banks, we can offer wealthy Chinese families living in China direct access to personalized financial products that invest in overseas markets,” said Fosun Chief Executive Liang Xinjun, adding that it could also offer “Chinese investment products” to the existing clients of the European private banks.
Mr. Liang said Fosun has set aside a budget of between $1 billion and $1.5 billion for each financial firm it is planning to buy. Apart from cash and bank loans, Fosun uses the premiums it gets from the billions of dollars of insurance companies it has acquired in recent years as cheap and long-term investing capital, a model championed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

“We think assets in our asset-management business, which include private banking, could reach $100 billion in the next few years from around $7.8 billion at present, through acquisitions and organic growth,” Mr. Liang said.

He said China’s recent market turmoil and declines in Fosun’s share price, which is off 44% from its peak in June, haven’t quelled the company’s ambitions overseas. The Hong Kong-listed company now has a market capitalization of $12 billion, down from $21 billion nearly three months ago, but still up 20% since the start of this year. By contrast, Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index is down 12% over the same period.

In fact, “although China’s economy is under downward pressure, we see (falling markets) as a good investment opportunity,” Mr. Liang said, adding that Fosun could take advantage of falling prices to invest in Chinese companies.

Fosun International has 38 in-house investment-team leaders based in cities like London, New York, Lisbon and Tokyo to buy assets.

Fosun’s focus on buying brands that appeal to China’s increasingly wealthy middle class has also been the driver behind acquisitions like Cirque du Soleil or Thomas Cook Group PLC this year, Mr. Liang said. Fosun, which bought a small stake in Club Med in 2010, acquired the French resort operator early this year after a nearly two-year battle, as the Shanghai firm sees it benefiting from the surge in Chinese outbound travel.

But in its transformation since its founding in 1992 by four university students from a company that focuses on pharmaceutical manufacturing and selling, one acquisition has been a big game changer: insurance companies. Fosun has spent over $9 billion on buying overseas assets in the past year and a half, including Portugal’s largest insurer and more recently U.S. insurer Meadowbrook Insurance Group and Israeli insurer Phoenix Holdings.

Insurance now accounts for over 40% of its net profit in the first half, compared with 9% in 2013. Its total net debt levels, meanwhile, fell to 63% in June from 86% two years ago because it is using insurance to pay.

“Low interest-rate markets such as Europe, the U.S. and Japan can facilitate Fosun’s acquisitions into insurance markets,” Mr. Liang said.

Mr. Liang also said that Fosun had investible insurance assets—assets for new investment—hitting a record high of $22 billion in the first half from $17 billion last year. While Fosun uses the income it gets from the insurer to buy assets, “to avoid foreign-exchange discrepancies”, Mr. Liang said targets remain in the same country.

Mr. Liang said another acquisition in the works is that of Novo Banco, the banking assets of Banco Espírito Santo, the Portuguese bank that collapsed amid allegations of fraud last summer.

“We are awaiting the Bank of Portugal’s final decision (on who wins the bid),” Mr. Liang said, adding that Fosun was strongly committed to Portugal.

Portugal’s central bank said earlier this month it had started talks with another prospective buyer for Novo Banco, having failed to reach an agreement with the other Chinese private company that has been making a splash through huge overseas acquisitions in recent years. China’s Anbang Insurance Group, which bought New York’s famed Waldorf Astoria hotel in a $1.95 billion deal last year, was also vying to buy Banco Novo.

>>> Bluebird Bio could be acquired by end of 2016, possibly at value of around U

Bluebird Bio could be acquired by end of 2016, possibly at value of around USD 10bn 

Bluebird Bio (NASDAQ: BLUE), a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based gene therapeutics company, could be acquired by the end of 2016, according to comments by a biotech investor in The Energy Report's Life Sciences Report.

The report cited Ran Nussbaum, managing partner with The Pontifax Group, saying that among gene therapy companies he believed Bluebird had a solid core business, so he doubted "big pharmas" would let Bluebird stay an independent business.

He also stated that he believed the company could become bigger, and that while its recent market cap has been around USD 4.8bn, he could see it selling for about USD 10bn.

Energy Report

--> BLUE US has a market cap of $4.6bil...offer nice upside

NY Post : Let’s talk about NYSE’s Rule 48

The NYSE has had investors baffled and confused during these past few weeks of wild volatility with its use of Rule 48.
The little-known rule, which was passed in 2007, permits specialists or “market makers,” as they prefer to call themselves today, to open a stock very quickly during periods of “extreme market volatility” without even indicating a price.
This ruling cost many investors lots of money, as they unknowingly sold their stock into the hands of the Wolves of Wall Street at unnecessarily low prices. But it did let the market open earlier (and more quickly, presumably), but for the benefit of whom?
The primary problem with Rule 48 is that it removes the indication of a stock’s opening price range in the most volatile of times for all investors except the specialists/market makers.
A need for some adult supervision is evident when Johnson & Johnson, among the bluest of blue-chip stocks, closes at $95.56 on the Friday prior to the Monday 1,000-point crash and opens down at $81.79 that Monday morning, only to take off later and close almost $10 higher, at more than $91.
The problem is, Rule 48, besides permitting the specialist to open a stock without indicating its price first, also permits the specialists to open stocks without a floor official or floor operations approval.
It’s a bit like letting the wolves decide what time to let the hens out of the house that they are charged with guarding.
I am sure the profit-and-loss statements of specialist firms on the NYSE looked a heck of a lot better than those of the rest of the market participants at the end of Monday.
In a Sept. 2 interview, SEC commissioner Dan Gallagher said, “We’re going to have tons of data to look at after last week. Data about the [exchange-traded funds], data about the performance of Rule 48.”
He went on to say, “Rule 48 went into place in 2007 at a time when you were shifting from specialists into electronic trading here on the floor. It made sense in 2007. Does it still make sense today? We’ll have to look at that.”
It’s good the adults in Washington are looking into this. Just follow the money — the data will tell the story.

>>> Asian Update Nikkei-1.55% Hang Seng +0.04% Shanghai-1.38%

Asian Mid-session Update: Large drop in imports helps China trade surplus top estimates; Japan Q2 final GDP revised higher

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA AUG TRADE BALANCE: $60.2B V $51.5BE
- (JP) JAPAN Q2 FINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.3% V -0.5%E; ANNUALIZED GDP: -1.2% V -1.8%E
- (JP) JAPAN AUG BANK LENDING (INCL TRUSTS): 2.7% V 2.6%E; BANK LENDING (EX- TRUSTS): 2.8% V 2.7% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN JULY BOP CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: ¥1.81T V ¥1.73TE; BOP ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT ¥1.32T V ¥1.26TE; TRADE BALANCE BOP BASIS: -¥108B V -¥80BE
- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 1 (2-year low) V 4 PRIOR; CONDITIONS: 11 V 6 PRIOR
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 106.7 v 113.3 prior; 14-month low
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY Q/Q: +0.4% V -2.6% PRIOR (1st rise in a year); MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY VOLUME Q/Q: -0.2% V -0.3% PRIOR
- (NZ) New Zealand AUG ANZ Heavy Truckometer m/m: -0.6% v -0.3% prior; 2nd straight decline
- (UK) UK AUG BRC SHOP PRICE INDEX Y/Y: -1.0% V +0.9%E

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.8%, S&P/ASX +0.9%, Kospi -0.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.7%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Sept S&P500 +0.7% at 1,935

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Dec gold -0.1% at $1,120/oz, Oct crude oil -2.9% at $44.72/brl, Dec copper +1.4% at $2.34/lb
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.3639 v 6.3584 prior setting; first weaker Yuan setting in 6 sessions
- (CN) PBoC to inject CNY150B in 7-day reverse repos (21st consecutive injection)

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Chinese currency devaluation last month that followed disappointing trade data has yet to yield much positive result. China trade surplus again topped consensus, but internal components remained soft. Exports decline of 5.5% was worse than expected 5%, while Imports component decline was more than double than anticipated. Exports to EU and Japan were not as bad as the prior month at -7.5% v -12.3% prior and -5.9% v -13.0% prior, but imports of key materials like crude oil and iron ore saw little improvement. AUD/USD fell some 30pips on the release below $0.6940, and Shanghai Composite has entered its midday break down over 1% near the session lows. Also of note in China, ADB Pres Nakao noted the country's economic slowdown is driven by rising wages and by a working-age population that is nearing its peak, but also added the property market is regaining momentum.

- Japan put out its Q2 Final GDP showing a smaller than initially reported decline. The two key components were little changed at Private consumption decline was -0.7% v -0.8%e v -0.8% prelim and CAPEX -0.9% v -0.9%e, v -0.1% prelim. Commenting after the release, Econ Min Amari said GDO revision was mainly due to inventories, urging Japan companies to invest their record-high earnings into more capex. Japan PM Abe also secured his 2nd term, running unopposed in LDP party leadership vote. Speaking after the results, Abe said his Abenomics policies are only halfway through, just as more critics of his agenda emerge.

- Australia's energy sector is in focus on the M&A front. Oil Search is up sharply after confirming press speculation that Woodside Petroleum has bid for the company in an all-stock non-binding one for four offer.

***Equities***
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Skyworth Digital 751.HK +7.3% (Aug result)
- Financials: Evergrande Real Estate Group 3333.HK +1.3% (Aug result); CITIC Securities 600030.CN -1.7% (Aug result); Poly Real Estate Group Co 600048.CN -1.7% (Aug result); Haitong Securities 600837.CN -0.4% (Aug result); Huatai Securities Co 601688.CN -2.4% (Aug result)
- Industrials: Great Wall Motor 2333.HK +14.1% (Aug result); Geely Automobile Holdings 175.HK +8.5% (Aug result); Chongqing Changan Automobile Co 000625.CN -1.6% (Aug result); Guangzhou Automobile Group 2238.HK +3.1% (Aug result); Dongfeng Motor 489.HK +5.4% (Aug result)
- Technology: AU Optronics 2409.TW +1.5% (Aug result); Advanced Semiconductor Engineering 2311.TW +1.8% (Aug result)
- Energy: GCL-Poly Energy Holdings 3800.HK +4.2% (asset disposal); Woodside Petroleum WPL.AU -3.0%, Oil Search OSH.AU +16.6% (WPL makes non-binding offer); Santos Ltd STO.AU +8.6% (said to boost asset sales)
- Utilities: China Merchants Energy Shipping Co 601872.CN -4.8% (clarification on merger speculation)