TheChek News Flow

The correlation between waste volumes and IP is still working. Analysis of SEV’s best practice through the cycle implies upside for VIE in terms of FCF / ROCE, and adds credibility to the scope for more cost cutting. We stay OW VIE, upgrade SEV to OW.

We provide an in-depth, through-the-cycle analysis of waste management, which constitutes half of the 2 companies' business. Contrary to concerns around recent headline datapoints, we find evidence that the

historical correlation between industrial production and waste volumes still holds (Exhibits 18-21). Our work shows VIE and SEV still stand to benefit from a rebound in economic growth, in line with our European economists'

expectation of 1.9% GDP growth 2016e in Europe. We stay OW VIE and move SEV to OW.

Valuation multiples: VIE and SEV trade on PE multiples of c15.2 and 16.5x PE17e. Based on a 2-year forward multiple, this means c11-10% further upside to the historical premium to the broader market, and an additional 20% on 3-year forward multiples. Higher growth potential, strength of franchises and scarcity value in Water and Waste justifies a premium, we think.

Spread SEV vs VIE

Highly attractive offer for Amlin

Our view: The recommended cash offer for Amlin by Mitsui Sumitomo

represents strong value for shareholders, in our view, at the highest

takeout multiple seen in the sector in recent times. We see no obstacles

to the deal going through. Increase PT to 675p and upgrade to Sector

Perform.

Amlin has become the latest of the Lloyd's insurers to become subject to

bid interest, following deals for Catlin and Brit that were both concluded

earlier this year.

This morning, Mitsui Sumitomo and Amlin announced that they have

reached agreement on a cash offer for the entire issued share capital of

Amlin. The offer values Amlin at £3,468m and represents a 36% premium

to the closing price of Amlin on 7th September 2015.

Mitsui Sumitomo has received irrevocable undertakings to vote or procure

votes in favour of the deal representing 15.2% of Amlin’s issued share

capital. As a result, we do not foresee any obstacle to the deal going

through at the offer price.

The deal based on the offer multiple is 2.4x Amlin’s 1H15 net tangible

assets, and 2.3x our 2015E net tangible assets. At this multiple, based on

our analysis of other comparable deals, the deal represents the highest

multiple that we have seen for a Lloyd’s and London market business in

recent years.

Following 1H15 results, we update our estimate to take into account yearto-

date performance. We increase our 2015E EPS by 7.6%. We upgrade

to Sector Perform as we no longer see any reason for the stock to

underperform. We base our valuation on the recommended

Global equity markets were hit hard following the Chinese devaluation and, despite some

bounce off the lows, the major markets are still down between 7-11% over the past

month. The sell-off has impacted investor confidence and, although many BofAML

strategy indicators are now indicating oversold conditions, we suspect any recovery will

take time and be choppy in nature. Risks remain - notably the Fed next week, where our

economists still expect a hike, and in China where our FX strategists see the CNY policy

as unsustainable, even if the authorities did reaffirm it at G20 over the weekend.

Investors appear uncertain about the how big an impact the deflationary shock emanating

out of China and the rest of the Emerging Market world will have. This is not surprising

since we have never been here before. Emerging Market economies now account for 40%

of global GDP, with China alone representing 13%. Any significant slowdown in those

economies will undoubtedly hit global growth. The question for developed market

investors is how big an impact will it have on developed world growth and profits?

Extensive work by our economists suggests that even if the Chinese GDP growth halves

they would only expect euro area GDP to fall by around 0.4%. If the boost from lower

commodity prices is spent by consumers it could be less than that. Recent data out of

the euro area would seem to support the view of a limited impact, with German survey

data actually improving despite being the most exposed economy to EM weakness.

For an equity investor it is the effect on profits that is key. We put European sales

exposure to China at a little over 5%, Asia as a whole at around 15% and EM at 27%. If

we assume the profit share is the same and that there is a 30% hit then Pan-European

profits would be 8% lower. Given that European equity markets are 11% lower over the

last month much would seem to be in the price.

Despite the near term risks we are constructive further out with the ECB firmly committed

to maintaining a euro area recovery and our economists confident on developed world

growth in 2016. European equities are attractive on sub-14x consensus earnings and a

We cut the China plays at the start of July and see no need to change that just yet. Yes

those sectors are vulnerable to squeezes but until the situation turns around in China we

think investors will be reluctant to buy them back. Accordingly we remain underweight

Risks to Consensus Diabetes and EPS forecasts remain

Outside the upcoming strategy update (Nov 6, ‘15) and dupilumab Phase III data (1Q’16), we continue to see risk to Consensus Business EPS forecasts in 2016/17. This risk comes from pressure on the diabetes business which we

expect to intensify due to Novo’s Tresiba US approval and Sanofi’s LixiLan data showing an inferior profile to Novo's Xultophy. As a result we expect Sanofi to achieve a Business EPS 2015-20 CAGR of only 5% (sector 8%) and

hence we expect the shares to remain at a discount and set a Jun ‘16 PT of €87 based on 15x 2016E EPS (15% discount).

* Diabetes franchise still expected to be below expectations: For Toujeo and

Lantus we continue to believe consensus is too high. Our FY’15 forecast for

Toujeo of €83m is 37% below BBG Cons. at €131m (FY’16 JPMe €222m vs.

Cons €360m) and for Lantus we forecast €6,694m vs. Cons. at €6,736m

(FY’16 JPMe €6,228m vs. Cons €6,282m). In addition, we believe the early

stages of the Praulent launch may be slower than expected. For Praulent

we forecast FY’15 at €64m, c. €30m lower than Cons. with €95m (FY’16

JPMe €328m vs. Cons €356m). Overall this suggests to us limited potential

for upgrades to the key products in the next 6-12 months.

* Next catalysts in 2H’15/early 2016: We expect the strategy update to be a

positive, but LixiLan data and Tresiba approval could increase pressure

on Diabetes: (1) Nov 6, 2015 Strategy update: we do not expect significant

changes to the group structure; (2) LixiLan-L Phase III data in 3Q’15 – we

expect the profile to be inferior to Xultophy (Novo); (3) Potential approval of

Toujeo competitor Tresiba in the US on Oct 1. In early 2016 positive

dupilumab data could be tempered by the impact of 2016 guidance: (4)

Dupilumab Phase III data in Atopic Dermatitis – positive data expected and

seemingly largely reflected by the market with Consensus 2020 forecasts of

€1.2bn (JPMe €906m after 70% risk adjustment); (5) FY’15 results: potential

for modest Cons. cuts around 2016 guidance.

* Minor changes to forecasts; we remain 1% to 6% below Vara Cons. We

have made minor changes to our Business EPS forecasts by 1-3% for 2015-

20. Our forecasts remain 1.5% below Vara Cons in 2016 and 5% below in

2017 likely driven by greater pressure on the diabetes business, requirement

for continued SG&A investments and more limited profitability of the

Regeneron pipeline assets.

Investment grade credit rating reinforced for now; upgrade to Neutral

concerns over the sustainability of the investment grade credit rating and we

therefore upgrade our recommendation to Neutral (from UW). We now

estimate a more modest ~$3bn shortfall against BBB metrics which would be

eliminated with a ~2.5% increase in commodity prices, although any

downward move in spot prices would see pressure re-emerge. Given an

estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.2x on the Industrial business trades in

line with peers, we do not see compelling value and therefore resist turning

more positive at this juncture, although we expect a reduction in short interest

near-term. We increase our Dec'16 price target to £1.50/sh (from £1.30/sh).

Remy’s share price has fallen 20% in the last month amid rising concerns over

the macro outlook in China and overall health of the EM consumer. While we

too have become more bearish on the near-term outlook in China, we believe

recent share price underperformance vs. the market is overdone. We expect

strength in the US (30% of sales) to offset weakness in China (20% of sales)

and see FX tailwinds from €:$ weakness benefiting FY16 earnings. Valuation

looks increasingly attractive on a P/E and inventory value basis. Furthermore,

we continue to view Remy as a potential M&A target given its strong brands

and access to cognac inventory.

Remy Cointreau will report 1H FY16 sales (March-September) on October

16, 2015, where the company will provide an update on current trading,

with focus likely to continue to be on China. Remy will announce 1H FY16

results on November 26, 2015, where we expect better visibility on the

profitability outlook for the FY. The company has guided for positive growth

in operating profit for the FY (our estimates indicate flat growth).

We value Remy on a 26x June 2017E P/E (based on a three-year average P/E

and EV/stock value implied multiple) and include a 30% weighting for an

M&A-based valuation, as we view Remy as an attractive acquisition target

(Remy ranks 1 in our M&A framework). Our new 12-month price target of

€69 (vs. €75 previously) reflects 4%/10% cuts to our FY16/17 EPS estimates

for latest FX movements and our more negative outlook for China in the

near term.

(1) Further deterioration in the Chinese cognac market; (2) adverse FX

movements (notably, the strengthening of the € and/or weakening of the

CNY); (3) value-destructive M&A; and (4) adverse regulation.

Questions that investors globally are asking…

1. What’s the ‘true’ economic growth now? What’s market pricing in?

Our alternative growth indicators say around 6%. Offshore equities

pricing in 4-5% macro growth and 2% 10Y EPS CAGR ex banks.

2. Will Rmb further depreciate? Good or bad for equities? We expect the

CNY fixing to gradually weaken vs. the USD. Modest impact on EPS,

but risk premium has gone up, pressuring valuations.

3. How big are the capital outflows? Impact on markets? Official

statistics suggest Rmb150bn/80bn in 1Q/2Q, and could be high in Aug.

Correlations btw capital flows and equities have recently risen.

4. Should we expect more monetary easing? How does it change val’n?

We expect more rates cuts as China’ real/policy rates are still high.

Every 0.5% cost of equity reduction should improve valuations by 10%.

5. Reforms, interrupted? Yes, and no. Capital markets reforms may be

delayed, but progress has been made on rates/FX, and SOE blueprint

to be announced soon.

6. What fiscal stimulus measures will the government take? Another big

stimulus package is unlikely but supporting policies are in place, and

projects approval and fiscal spending have accelerated.

7. How has the market selloff impacted aggregate consumption? Mixed

discretionary spending trends, property sales have rebounded. More

nuanced wealth effects than headline numbers would suggest.

8. Where are we in the A-share deleveraging cycle? Flows vs. P/E?

Official leverage has fallen to Rmb1tn (peak: 2.3tn), 2% of total market

cap, in-line with the US. Most OTC leverage positions are cleared. We

estimate every Rmb100bn of inflows would raise P/E points by 0.3.

9. How much has the government bought in the A-share market? We

estimate the “national team” has spent Rmb1.5tn since June, based on

our top-down model.

10. Are 1H results in-line with consensus? What are the noticeable trends?

In-line 1H15 results for H-shares, major divergence between new/old

China. Investment income accounted for 26% of A-share earnings.

11. Are valuations cheap for H and A shares? We believe H-shares are

trading cheap relative to our fundamental expectations, and select

value opportunities are emerging in A shares.

12. ADRs inclusion to MSCI still on? If so, when? And what’s the impact?

The inclusion of 14 ADRs to MSCI is confirmed, and the process will

begin Nov 15. In total, these stocks may see 23 days of net buying.

Ryanair is The Ultimate Champion but easyJet is Under-Valued

* easyJet vs. Ryanair — In the latest edition of Citi's Head-to-Head series, we

analyse Europe's two most successful airlines to determine who could be the

ultimate winner and long-term outperformer. We assess them on the basis of market

share potential and growth prospects, relative unit cost upside, relative unit revenue

upside, long-term earnings potential, cash returns to shareholders and valuation.

* Ryanair the ultimate champion of Europe — We conclude that Ryanair is the ultimate

winner and is likely to retain its number one market share leadership position over the

next 10 years, driven by its higher growth strategy, lowest unit cost, substantial revenue

upside from its ‘Always Getting Better’ strategy, higher free cash flow generation

potential and substantial cash returns to shareholders beyond its current plan to return

€500m p.a. by alternate special dividends and share buybacks. We believe that Ryanair

is narrowing its ‘revenue gap’ with easyJet and offers more earnings and margin growth

than easyJet, which is narrowing its ‘cost gap’ with Ryanair.

* easyJet offers better value but Ryanair deserves a small premium — easyJet is

a close second on most metrics, however, and is the industry leader among LCCs in

terms of its revenue and digital initiatives. It also offers more value upside due to its

20-30% discount to Ryanair on P/E and EV/EBITDAR multiples, resulting in a

higher total absolute return over the next year (23.5% vs. 15.3%). We also expect

eayJet to be able to return more cash to shareholders than its current 40% ordinary

dividend payout in the form of further special dividends.

Link to Article : http://bit.ly/1NeXXBa

Ran Nussbaum Ran Nussbaum, managing partner with The Pontifax Group, doesn't worry too much about overall market volatility. Biotechs, he feels, are somewhat immune to turmoil because their fundamentals are based in real life. He prefers to play on good science and unmet medical needs, and then sit tight until a stock is discovered. In this interview with The Life Sciences Report, Nussbaum describes a few takeover candidates primed for stellar growth, as well as promising names that are part of the movement toward personalized medicine.

Nanotechnology580

The Life Sciences Report: As you and I speak, the global securities markets are very volatile. But we saw the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (NBI) begin to trend down on July 20. Even with this turmoil in the markets, the NBI is still up more than 25% over the past 12 months, and it is up more than 320% over the last five years. Speaking to biotech only, do you see this pullback as a needed break, or do you see this as the bubble bursting?

Ran Nussbaum: Some biotech companies carry very high valuations right now, but I don't think this is a bubble. I do know that there have been a lot of mergers and acquisitions (M&As), and there have been a lot of initial public offerings (IPOs)—and I believe the IPO window is still open. However, a bubble, by definition, is something that is not connected to real life. For example, it's a bubble when you are not generating data and your shares are climbing. This is not what we are observing now. We've just seen a lot of investors running in to biotech, buying good shares such as Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD:NASDAQ) and Celgene Corp. (CELG:NASDAQ).

"We believe Arno Therapeutics Inc. is very good story for prostate and breast cancer indications."

This pullback is something that we thought would occur during Q3/15 or Q4/15. We have been saying, since 2008, that when there's blood on the street, buy biotech. This pullback has created a lot of opportunities. Just one example, right in the middle of this market turmoil: On Aug. 24, Exelixis Inc. (EXEL:NASDAQ) announced that the FDA granted breakthrough therapy designation for cabozantinib in renal cell carcinoma, which is the company's lead product candidate. It is just bizarre that then this company's shares would drop. But from an investor's point of view, such anomalies are an opportunity, because you can purchase shares when they fall, even when a company is doing great.

TLSR: What are some of the technologies that will keep biotech alive over the next years?

RN: First, let me say that there was a gap between when we completed mapping the human genome in 2003 and when we began to generate good, validated targets and technologies from that information. The immune checkpoints have changed the entire picture. An antibody against cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 (CTLA4) was the first of this group of checkpoint inhibitors to gain FDA approval— Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.'s (BMY:NYSE) anti-CTLA4 antibody Yervoy (ipilimumab) for melanoma. Merck & Co. Inc.'s (MRK:NYSE) anti-PD-1 antibody, Keytruda (pembrolizumab), was the first anti-PD-1 drug to get approved by the FDA, and it was granted accelerated approval.

You're looking now at a quantum leap in technologies, given how many new checkpoints companies have generated in the last five years, and also how chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and T-cell receptors (TCRs) have changed the picture again. The CRISPR/Cas9 technologies are being developed, and you can edit a genome at any spot now. This is something big. Foundation Medicine Inc. (FMI:NASDAQ) has come up with a good, clear and loud vision about how to treat cancer by mapping the mutations, and there are other companies out there trying to identify the driving mutations of tumors. This is the perfect personal medicine solution that the entire market has waited for.

"Some biotech companies carry very high valuations right now, but I don't think this is a bubble."

As a philosophy, we are not racing to catch trends. Right now we are trying to identify the next technologies to rule the biotech arena, including driving mutations and new ways to target cancer cells. By the way, I think that cancer metabolism will be something big in the next few years. All in all, when we are looking at the biggest goal right now, it's to generate new targets that might be the perfect personal medicine for our generation.

TLSR: Ran, if this stock market turmoil doesn't cause weakness in the economy, the Federal Reserve could hike the Federal funds rate before year-end. I wonder if you believe these technologies, and the catalysts and milestones associated with them, will be able to push through the headwinds of a down-trending market, if that occurs?

RN: There are some good reasons for the Fed to increase interest rates, but if it does that, then the economy will slow down. If the economy is growing, as I think it is, and if Chinese money is coming into the U.S. public markets, I think you will see again that America is actually more solid and more stable. We can see some signs of progress too in Switzerland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. I think the economy is in good shape. That said, I think no biotech company—no Gilead or Kite Pharma (KITE:NASDAQ)—can be stronger than the market forces. If the market goes down, companies will go down as well.

But there are some good things going on with these companies. The thing I like about biotech is if the market is weak, these companies will still be able to come up with good clinical data and outcomes. Ultimately, these companies will climb. It's all about fundamentals. I can't predict the markets, but I think I know the good companies in this arena.

TLSR: I'm asking this question because you own some private equity. In a downturn, I wonder if you would be looking at fewer IPOs and diminished M&A activity. What would you expect if we go into a period of share price consolidation?

RN: That's a fair situation to think about. The first thing is that there will be only cherry picking of IPOs. You will not see every private company going public. The market will try to choose the best of them, and so you will see fewer IPO rounds. You will also see private companies having difficulties raising money.

TLSR: Let's talk about some companies, please.

RN: Sure. We have had a long relationship with Arno Therapeutics Inc. (ARNI:OTC.MKTS). It lost a significant portion of its valuation over the past year, but we didn't sell even one share. We wanted to give Arno a fighting chance with onapristone. We think that on progesterone receptor-positive prostate and breast cancers, the odds are good that onapristone will get some responses in refractory cancer patients. Of course, we want to see that shown in a broad-based trial.

"The recent pullback in the markets has created a lot of opportunities."

The management team is very strong. I'm a true believer in the chairman, Dr. Arie Belldegrun, who is a serial entrepreneur. He sold Cougar Biotechnology Inc. to Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE). He sold Agensys Inc. to Astellas Pharma Inc. (ALPMF:OTCPK; 4503:TYO), and he's the executive chairman, CEO and founder of Kite Pharma. He is also a urologic oncologist and professor of urology at the UCLA Institute of Urologic Oncology at the David Geffen School of Medicine. Arno's CEO, Dr. Alex Zukiwski, is also very strong.

TLSR: I realize this is an early-stage, Phase 1 company, which would be consistent with a low valuation, but why is Arno's market cap in the low single digits?

RN: I think that the financial structure is not the perfect scenario for Arno. Bear in mind that we have good investors. It's not just Arie Belldegrun, but also David Bonderman, chairman of TPG Capital. We also have Dr. Phillip Frost, CEO and chairman of OPKO Health Inc. (OPK:NYSE); Frost also served as Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.'s (TEVA:NYSE) chairman of the board. Arno has many more sophisticated investors, but most of them are invested in convertible loans and not equity holders.

I think that investors are trading Arno shares at very low volume while they wait to see if the company will raise more money, or generate good data and then raise money. This company has been low profile, and is very much under the radar. It is not pitching its story before coming up with good results. I really believe that Arno will generate good data before raising more money and will win this thing.

TLSR: Onapristone is a progesterone receptor antagonist. The progesterone receptor is constitutively overactivated; it's just always on. Medivation Inc. (MDVN:NASDAQ) has an approved drug called Xtandi (enzalutamide) that acts on three different steps of androgen receptor signaling, and the androgen receptor is also constitutively overactivated. Xtandi is an extremely successful drug. Do you think that, because Arno is antagonizing an always-on receptor, the company could really be on to something?

RN: Medivation is a great company, now with a $7.5B market cap. Yes, the mode of action is similar, but separate. You have pretty much summarized our theory, but Arno needs to come up with good data and good outcome stories. We feel Arno should go after Xtandi-refractory prostate cancer patients, but right now Medivation obviously has proof of concept, and Arno does not. We think there is a good scientific rationale that onapristone will work on prostate cancer patients, and breast cancer patients as well. We don't want to say Arno will be Medivation and will give you a billion-dollar market cap. We want to do the right thing. We want to see good data first.

By the way, onapristone was licensed from Bayer AG (BAYRY:OTCMKTS; BAYN:XETRA), but it was not for oncology indications. It showed some toxicity in the original indication, but now we have a good candidate. Arno came up with its own formulation for oncology. We believe we have a very good story for prostate and breast cancer indications.

TLSR: Could we go to the next name, please?

RN: Array BioPharma Inc. (ARRY:NASDAQ) has multiple shots on goal. It has MEK (a receptor tyrosine kinase) inhibitors and a great relationship and collaboration with Genentech (a unit of Roche Holding AG [RHHBY:OTCQX]). It has at least 10 different collaborations with big pharmas.

"The biggest goal right now is to generate new targets that might be the perfect personal medicine for our generation."

Array is an engine of best-in-class MEK inhibitors, and from my point of view, this will be very valuable to either AstraZeneca Plc (AZN:NYSE) or Pfizer Inc. (PFE:NYSE). Someone is going to buy this prolific drug-producing machine. It's unbelievable that it is under the radar and so undervalued. Right now everybody is going after immuno-oncology and biologics, but Array has a very solid, basic science platform for small molecules, which will always be used as first-line treatment in oncology.

TLSR: Array currently has a market cap of only $835M, even though it has three Phase 3 programs and partners like AstraZeneca, Genentech, Celgene and Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY:NYSE). Why do you think this company is so under the radar?

RN: It's because the company has built a business model based on codevelopment and outlicensing rather than fully owned programs. Also, investors—especially retail investors—are not paying attention to this marvelous research platform right now because they are focused on trendy technologies.

TLSR: The irony here is that small molecules can be given by mouth as pills, whereas biologics cannot. Pills are what patients and oncologists prefer. But this company is going unnoticed because it is not developing CAR T-cells and antibodies, both of which must be infused.

RN: Exactly. They're not immune checkpoints. They're not TCRs. They're not even antibody drug conjugates (ADCs).

TLSR: You own some ADC companies, don't you?

RN: Yes, and some of these— Seattle Genetics (SGEN:NASDAQ) and ImmunoGen Inc. (IMGN:NASDAQ), in particular—are rising again.

ImmunoGen was the first to get an ADC approved—Kadcyla (ado-trastuzumab emtansine), which was approved in February 2013 for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer. Kadcyla is marketed by Roche. But then ImmunoGen lost a lot of its glory. Seattle Genetics also had a lot of glory, and then it went down too. But now investors are looking at ImmunoGen's potential for developing an ovarian cancer drug, and at Seattle Genetics for its anti-CD33 molecule for acute myeloid leukemia, and these companies are coming back from the dead.

"Even if the market is weak, biotech companies will still be able to come up with good clinical data and outcomes."

ImmunoGen's new early-stage platform, in collaboration with Novartis AG (NVS:NYSE), is unbelievably good. If we see one day that chemotherapy as we know it today has vanished, I'm sure ADCs will be used broadly in first line, as these kinds of compounds can target a chemotherapy payload directly to the tumor cells, which is very effective. It carries chemotherapy into the right cell that highly expresses the target.

TLSR: I know you like the gene therapy concept. Can you speak to that?

RN: Gene therapy will be the next big thing. In my opinion, bluebird bio Inc. (BLUE:NASDAQ) has the best-proven gene therapy platform in the world. Everybody is aiming for age-related macular degeneration, wet or dry, but bear in mind that there are a lot of hematologic malignancies for which bluebird is coming up with good solutions.

I do believe that these are very smart guys. For full disclosure, bluebird collaborates with Kite on the next generation of TCRs. When I look at bluebird's core business, it seems like the big pharmas of the world won't allow it to remain an independent company. bluebird can be something big. I believe that by year-end 2016, somebody will buy it.

TLSR: Today, bluebird has a $4.8B market cap. What would be a fair value for this company as an acquisition?

RN: I think it will be acquired for $10B or so.

TLSR: Do you have another name?

RN: Marinus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MRNS:NASDAQ) is developing an oral drug for central nervous system diseases, and it is working on the same mechanism of action that SAGE Therapeutics Inc. (SAGE:NASDAQ) is working on. SAGE has proven the concept. I believe that if you are holding SAGE, which is a good, very promising company taking on an unmet medical need, you need to own Marinus at a very low valuation to hedge that.

TLSR: We have a $204M valuation in Marinus. We have a $1.5B valuation with SAGE. You're saying Marinus can capitalize on that technology and grow to that size, perhaps?

RN: I think that SAGE can be traded up to a $4B company within a year from now, and that could bring Marinus up to $1B market cap within a year and a half.

TLSR: Did you want to talk about one more company?

RN: Clovis Oncology Inc. (CLVS:NASDAQ) is a great company. It has three different programs, including a PARP inhibitor. On Aug. 24 we saw Medivation buying a $600M PARP inhibitor from BioMarin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BMRN:NASDAQ). Clovis is a pure M&A play, as it is running three different oncology agents in the clinic.

TLSR: Ran, thank you.